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The majority of currently installed photovoltaic (PV) systems are based on mono- and polycrystalline silicon PV modules. Manufacturers of competing technologies often argue that due to the characteristics of their PV technologies, PV systems based on their modules are able to achieve higher annual energy yield, due to a smaller effect of temperature on module performance and/or a better performance at low light intensities. While these benefits have been confirmed in local studies many times, there is still limited insight as to the locations at which a particular technology actually performs best. In this study we have analysed the performance of a large set of PV modules, based on irradiance time series that were taken from satellite measurements. Using these data, and combining it with a PV performance model, we have made a geospatial analysis of the energy yield of different types of PV modules. We aim to make the energy yield of the investigated modules spatially explicit, allowing PV system installers to choose the best module type for every location investigated. Our results show that there is large geographical variety in the performance of PV modules, in terms of energy yield but also in terms of relative performance or performance ratio. While some technologies clearly exhibit a decrease in performance ratio at locations where they operate at higher temperatures, for some technologies this effect is much smaller. As a result of the variation in performance, the environmental footprint of PV modules also shows large geographical variations. However, even at low irradiance locations the environmental footprint of PV modules in general is much lower compared to that of fossil fuel based electricity generation.

The specifications of photovoltaic modules show performance under standard testing conditions (STC), but only limited information relating to performance at non-STC conditions. While performance is affected by irradiance, temperature, spectral composition of irradiance, angle-of-incidence of the irradiance and other parameters, specifications only partly give detail to consumers or retailers about the effect of irradiance and temperature. In this study, we characterise and analyse the performance of eight different, commercially available photovoltaic modules. We establish the effect of four different parameters on module performance: irradiance, temperature, spectral composition of irradiance (via the parameter average photon energy) and angle-of-incidence, by performing linear and nonlinear optimisation of physical or empirical models. Furthermore, we characterise the operating conditions and analyse the seasonal and annual development and contribution of the four parameters to energy losses or gains relative to STC operating conditions. We show a comprehensive way of presenting the deviation of performance from STC, combining the variation in operating conditions and the resulting variation in performance. Our results show that some effects on performance are attributable to the semiconductor material used in the modules (spectral composition and temperature), while especially angle-of-incidence effects seem more related to the type of glass used on as the front cover of the module. Variation in irradiance and module temperature generally affect performance the strongest, resulting in a performance effect ranging from + 2.8% to − 3.2% and − 0.5% to − 2.2%, respectively. The combined effect of all parameters results in an annual yield deviation ranging from + 1.2% to − 5.9%.

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) can be a valuable CO2 mitigation option, but what role CCS will play in the future is uncertain. In this paper we analyze the results of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) taking part in the 27th round of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) with respect to the role of CCS in long term mitigation scenarios. Specifically we look into the use of CCS as a function of time, mitigation targets, availability of renewables and its use with different fuels. Furthermore, we explore the possibility to relate model results to general and CCS specific model assumptions. The results show a wide range of cumulative capture in the 2010-2100 period (600-3050 GtCO2), but the fact that no model projects less than 600 GtCO2 indicates that CCS is considered to be important by all these models. Interestingly, CCS storage rates are often projected to be still increasing in the second half of this century. Depending on the scenario, at least six out of eight, up to all models show higher storage rates in 2100 than in 2050. CCS shares in cumulative primary energy use are in most models increasing with the stringency of the target or under conservative availability of renewables. The strong variations of CCS deployment projection rates could not be related to the reported differences in the assumptions of the models by means of a cross-model comparison in this sample.

Torrefaction is a promising bioenergy pre-treatment technology, with potential to make a major contribution to the commodification of biomass. However, there is limited scientific knowledge on the techno-economic performance of torrefaction. This study therefore improves available knowledge on torrefaction by providing detailed insights into state of the art prospects of the commercial utilisation of torrefaction technology over time. Focussing on and based on the current status of the compact moving bed reactor, we identify process performance characteristics such as thermal efficiency and mass yield and discuss their determining factors through analysis of mass and energy balances. This study has shown that woody biomass can be torrefied with a thermal and mass efficiency of 94% and 48% respectively (on a dry ash free basis). For straw, the corresponding theoretical energetic efficiency is 96% and mass efficiency is 65%. In the long term, the technical performance of torrefaction processes is expected to improve and energy efficiencies are expected to be at least 97% as optimal torgas use and efficient heat transfer are realised. Short term production costs for woody biomass TOPs (torrefied pellets) are estimated to be between 3.3 and 4.8 US$/GJLHV, falling to 2.1–5.1 US$/GJLHV in the long term. At such cost levels, torrefied pellets would become competitive with traditional pellets. For full commercialisation, torrefaction reactors still require to be optimised. Of importance to torrefaction system performance is the achievement of consistent and homogeneous, fully hydrophobic and stable product, capable of utilising different feedstocks, at desired end-use energy densities.

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) could be an interesting option to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in the Netherlands. This study compares a mitigation strategy for the Dutch power sector that includes CCS to one without on several socio-economic indicators. In particular, we calculate incremental gross value added (GVA), employment and import dependency impacts of two such low-carbon power production portfolios for the Netherlands. We combine technology specific techno-economic bottom-up data with a macro-economic multi-regional Input-Output-Table containing high sectoral detail. For the total economy, we find the differences between these scenarios to be small. Still, gross value added, and employment are lower under the CCS-inclusive strategy, while import dependency is higher. For the power sector, the differences between the scenarios are, however, considerable. Furthermore, our analysis shows that also for other sectors the differences between the scenarios could be large. For instance, a CCS-exclusive strategy leads to considerably higher GVA and employment in domestic construction services, while the CCS-inclusive strategy comes with considerably higher GVA and employment for natural gas mining and related upstream sectors. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a potential key-technology to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as its use can lead to lower mitigation cost. However, research on other economic impacts of using CCS is scarce. In this paper, we look into economic upstream impacts of CCS use in terms of employment, Gross Value Added (GVA) and import dependency on the macro- and sector-level in Western Europe. We determine these impacts by a static comparison of two scenarios of power production with and without CCS (differences in energy efficiency investments between these scenarios were not accounted for). The two scenarios, both representing a stringent climate policy regime, were produced with the energy-system-simulation-model (TIMER) following the same emission profile until 2050. Data from the two scenarios were respectively implemented into a projected version of a global-multiregional IO-Model (EXIOBASE). Macro-level results suggest slightly higher gross employment, but lower Gross Value Added (GVA) (by 25%), and higher import dependency in the CCS-including scenario compared to the CCS-excluding scenario, given that biomass with CCS (BECCS) is available. Sector-level results show disproportionally higher differences between the scenarios in GVA and employment for some sectors compared to other sectors. Particularly, sectors providing fuels (here mostly bio-energy) have significantly higher GVA and employment in the CCS scenario. This study thus reveals interesting upstream economic effects, which can be linked to the technology choice. However, the exact quantitative results depend strongly on model assumptions. Results therefore need to be further explored in other models. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The deployment of large scale CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) may depend largely on the emissions price resulting from a greenhouse gas emission trading system. However, it is unknown whether such a trading system leads to a sufficient high CO2 price and stable investment environment for CCS deployment. To gain more knowledge, we soft-linked WorldScan, an applied general equilibrium model for global policy analysis, with MARKAL-NL-UU, a techno-economic energy bottom-up model of the Dutch power generation sector and CO2 intensive industry. Results from WorldScan show that CO2 prices in 2020 could vary between 20 € /t CO2 in a Grand Coalition scenario, in which all countries accept greenhouse gas targets from 2020, to 47 € /t CO2 in an Impasse scenario, in which EU-27 continues its one-sided emission trading system without the possibility to use the Clean Development Mechanism. Results from MARKAL-NL-UU show that an emission trading system in combination with uncertainty does not advance the application of CCS in an early stage, the rates at which different CO2 abatement technologies (including CCS) develop are less crucial for introduction of CCS than the CO2 price development, and the combination of biomass (co-)firing and CCS seems an important option to realise deep CO2 emission reductions.

This paper presents the methodology and the preliminary results of a techno-economic assessment of CCS implementation on the iron and steel sector. The results show that for the short-mid term, a CO 2 avoidance cost of less than 50 € /tonne at a CO 2 avoidance rate of around 50% are possible by converting the conventional blast furnace (BF) to Top Gas Recycling Blast Furnace (TGRBF). However, large additional power consumption for CO 2 removal and oxygen generation, and reduction in BF gas export, makes the economic performance of the technology very sensitive to energy prices. Add-on CO 2 capture for conventional BF may achieve similar costs (40–50 € /t CO 2 avoided), but the CO 2 avoidance rate will be only about 15% of the specific CO 2 emissions. For the long term future, although there are large uncertainties, advanced CO 2 capture technologies do not seem to have significant economic advantages over conventional technologies. The results also indicate that in a carbon-constrained society, when considering new plants, smelting reduction technologies such as the COREX process, may become a strong competitor to conventional blast furnace based steel making process when equipped with CO 2 capture. Although conventional iron and steel making using BF is expected to dominate the market in the long term, strong need for drastic CO 2 emissions reduction may drive the sector towards large scale implementation of advanced smelting reduction technologies.

This study assesses the extent and location of salt-affected soils worldwide and their current land use and cover as well as the current technical and economic potential of biomass production from forestry plantations on these soils (biosaline forestry). The global extent of salt-affected land amounts to approximately 1.1 Gha, of which 14% is classified as forest, wetlands or (inter)nationally protected areas and is considered unavailable for biomass production because of sustainability concerns. For the remaining salt-affected area, this study finds an average biomass yield of 3.1 oven dry ton ha-1 y-1 and a global technical potential of 56 EJ y-1 (equivalent to 11% of current global primary energy consumption). If agricultural land is also considered unavailable because of sustainability concerns, the technical potential decreases to 42 EJ y-1. The global economic potential of biosaline forestry at production costs of 2€ GJ-1 or less is calculated to be 21 EJ y-1 when including agricultural land and 12 EJ y-1 when excluding agricultural land. At production costs of up to 5€ GJ-1, the global economic potential increases to 53 EJ y-1 when including agricultural land and to 39 EJ y-1 when excluding agricultural land. Biosaline forestry may contribute significantly to energy supply in certain regions, e.g., Africa. Biosaline forestry has numerous additional benefits such as the potential to improve soil, generate income from previously low-productive or unproductive land, and soil carbon sequestration. These are important additional reasons for investigating and investing in biosaline forestry.

This study developed a method to assess the techno-economic performance and spatial footprint of CO2 capture infrastructure configurations in industrial zones. The method has been successfully applied to a cluster of sixteen industrial plants in the Dutch industrial Botlek area (7.1 MtCO2/y) for 2020–2030. The configurations differ inter alia regarding capture technology (post-, pre-, oxyfuel combustion) and location of capture components (centralized vs. plant site). Results indicate that oxyfuel combustion with centralized oxygen production and decentralized CO2 compression is the most cost effective and realistic configuration when applying CO2 capture to all industrial plants (61€/tCO2; 5.8 MtCO2/y avoided), mainly due to relatively low energy costs compared to post- and pre-combustion. However, oxyfuel combustion at plant level is economically preferable when capturing CO2 from only the three largest industrial plants. For post-combustion, a separated absorber-stripper configuration (73€/tCO2; 7.1 MtCO2/y avoided) is preferable from a cost perspective, due to economic scale effects of capture equipment. The optimal pre-combustion configuration shows a slightly less favorable performance (81€/tCO2; 4.4 MtCO2/y avoided). Whereas many industrial plants have insufficient space available for capture equipment, centralized/hybrid configurations show no insurmountable space issues. The deployment of the most favorable configurations is addressed in Part B.

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Road transport produces significant amounts of CO2 by using crude oil as primary energy source. A reduction of CO2 emissions can be achieved by implementing alternative fuel chains. This article studies CO2 emissions and energy efficiencies by means of a well to wheel analysis of alternative automotive fuel chains, using natural gas (NG) as an alternative primary energy source to replace crude oil. The results indicate that NG-based hydrogen applied in fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) lead to largest CO2 emission reductions (up to 40% compared to current practice). However, large implementation barriers for this option are foreseen, both technically and in terms of network change. Two different transition strategies are discussed to gradually make the transition to these preferred fuel chains. Important transition technologies that are the backbone of these routes are traditional engine technology fuelled by compressed NG and a FCV fuelled by gasoline. The first is preferred in terms of carbon emissions. The results furthermore indicate that an innovation in the conventional chain, the diesel hybrid vehicle, is more efficient than many NG-based chains. This option scores well in terms of carbon emissions and implementation barriers and is a very strong option for the future.

The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2 pipeline transport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures is the most cost-effective option. The models EFFECTS and RISKCURVES are used to estimate the dispersion and risk, respectively. The pipeline routes are optimized by using the least cost path function in ArcGIS. This article evaluates three case studies in the Netherlands. The results show that pipelines transporting dense phase CO2 (8–17 MPa) with a minimal amount of risk mitigation measures already meet the 10−6 locational risk required in the Netherlands. 10−6 locational risks of 135 m are calculated for intermediate pumping stations, handling 450 kg CO2/s (about 14 Mt CO2/year). In all the cases, pumping stations could be located along the pipeline route without any problem. For the cases studied transporting gaseous CO2 (1.5–3 MPa) leads to larger 10−6 locational risk distances than transporting dense phase CO2. This is caused by the large momentum behind a dense phase CO2 release, leading to smaller but higher jet and to a higher mixing rate with the surrounding air than for a gaseous CO2 release. Based on our analysis, it can be concluded that dense phase CO2 transport is safe if it is well organized. The risks are manageable and widely accepted under current legislation. In addition, risk mitigation measures, like marker tape and increased surveillance, are available which reduce the risk significantly and increase the costs only slightly. Pipeline routing for gaseous CO2 transport appears more challenging in densely populated areas, because larger safety zones are attached to it.

Some Parties (Countries) to the UNFCCC decided to include the carbon uptake by harvested wood products (HWP) in a new general accounting framework after 2012 (post Kyoto). We combine the new HWP framework with an assumed increased 50 million m3 harvest level in Canada and evaluate the impact of the GHG emissions over a 100 year period. Our reference case assumes all harvested wood is an immediate CO2 emission (IPCC default) and no substitution effects, i.e. annual GHG emissions of 41 million tonnes CO2eq. In our wood utilisation scenarios, harvested trees are allocated to three end­products: construction wood, paper products and pellets for power production. In comparison with our base case, a combination of fossil fuel substitution, material substitution and temporary carbon uptake by HWP leads to significant decreases in GHG emissions. A similar approach is intended for future EU­28 harvesting., Proceedings of the 22nd European Biomass Conference and Exhibition, 23-26 June 2014, Hamburg, Germany, pp. 1423-1425

Forest biomass is one of the main contributors to the EU’s renewable energy target of 20% gross final energy consumption in 2020 (Renewable Energy Directive). Following the RED, new sustainability principles are launched by the European energy sector, such as Sustainable Biomass Partnership (former IWPB). We have a reference situation with existing national (forest) legislation and sustainable forest management (SFM) schemes (scenario 1) and a future situation based on additional SBP principles (scenario 2). Two country studies were selected for our survey: one in Finland with nearly 100% SFM certification and one in Leningrad province with a minor areal share of certification in scenario 1. The potential volumes reduce after new criteria from the SBP in scenario 2. The costs will also increase in scenario 2, both in Leningrad region and Finland., JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climate

To date, literature often presents generic results on the techno-economic performance of CO2 capture in industry. Insufficient knowledge is available on the impact of site-specific factors on the feasibility of CO2 capture at industrial plant level. This article presents a techno-economic analysis and an inventory of potential implementation and operational challenges related to the three main CO2 capture technologies applied at industrial plant level for the short term (2020–2025) and long term (2040–2050). Five industrial plants from various industrial sectors (a medium and large sized petroleum refinery, a small and medium sized chemical plant, and a large hydrogen plant) in the Netherlands were used for this study. The results show the lowest CO2 avoidance costs for the refineries (24–57 €/t) and chemical plants (37–124 €/t) when operated in oxyfuel combustion mode, both for the short and long term, although post-combustion is economically preferable for the smallest chemical plant (117 €/t) in the short term. For the hydrogen plant, avoidance costs (67 €/t) are lowest when capturing CO2 solely from the high-pressure process gas. For the short term cases, spatial constraints on existing plant sites could increase the indicated CO2 avoidance costs, especially for post-combustion capture; for the long term cases, new-built capture ready process units, plant integration and optimized utilities are expected to lower the avoidance costs for all three capture technologies.

The development of functional international markets for bioenergy has become an essential driver to develop bioenergy potentials, which are currently under-utilised in many regions of the world. Technical potential of bioenergy may be as large as 500 EJ/yr by 2050. However, large uncertainty exists about important factors such as market and policy conditions that affect this potential. Potential deployment levels by 2050 could lay in the range of 100–300 EJ/yr. Realizing this potential represents a major challenge but would substantially contribute to the world’s primary energy demand in 2050. The possibilities to export biomassderived commodities for the world’s energy market can create important socioeconomic development incentives for rural communities. But bioenergy markets are still immature, relying on policy objectives and incentives, that prove to be erratic in many cases. Further improvement is needed to develop both supply and demand in a balanced way and avoid distortions and instability that can threaten investments. Furthermore, it is necessary to develop and exploit biomass resources in a sustainable way and to understand what this means in different settings. In some markets, prices of biomass resources are volatile, including indirect effects on price of raw material prices for e.g. the forest industry as well as on food. Sustainability demands serve as a starting point for policies supporting bioenergy in many countries. The proliferation of initiatives registered worldwide to develop and implement sustainability frameworks and certifi cation systems for bioenergy, can lead to a fragmentation of efforts. This asks for harmonization and for international collaboration.

This study performs an assessment of existing LCA literature to obtain insights into potential environmental impacts over the complete life cycle of fossil fuel fired power plants with CCS. CCS results in a net reduction of the GWP of power plants through their life cycle in the order of 65–84% (PC-CCS), 68–87% (IGCC-CCS), 47–80% (NGCC-CCS), and 76–97% (Oxyfuel). The results show a lower performance for NGCCs on GWP, although in absolute terms, the GWP of NGCCs with CCS appears in the same order of magnitude as PC-CCS (76–245 gCO2eq/kWh vs. 79–275 gCO2eq/kWh in PC-CCS). This is due to upstream emissions in NGCC chains. Deploying CCS in PC, IGCC and NGCC results in relative increases in eutrophication and acidification when comparing to power plants without CCS. The limited available LCA literature on oxyfuel with CCS shows this technology as generating the lowest relative increases in the environmental impact categories. For power plants without CCS, direct emissions account as the main contributor to GWP, acidification and eutrophication while for power plants with CCS, indirect emissions appear as the main contributor to GWP, acidification and human toxicity potential. The highly relative importance of emissions occurring upstream (e.g. coal mining, coal transport, MEA production) and downstream (e.g., CO2 transport, CO2 storage) when assessing the environmental performance of power plants with CCS implies the need for optimal designs of CCS chains to also include up- and downstream processes.

The aim of this study is to present and apply aquick screening method and to identify the most promising bioethanol derivatives using an early- stage sustainability assessment method that compares abioetha- nol-base d conversion route to its respective petrochemical counterpart. The method combines, by means of a multi-criteria app roach, quantitative and qualitative proxy indicato rs describing economic, environ- mental, health and safety and operational aspects. Of twelve derivatives considered, fivewere catego- rized as favorable (diethyl ether, 1,3-butadiene, ethyl acetate, propylene and ethylene),two as promis ing (acetaldehydeand ethylene oxide)and fiveas unfavorable derivatives (aceticacid, n-butanol, isobutylene, hydrogen and acetone)for an integrated biorefineryconcept.

This study explores the greenhouse gas balance and the economic performance (i.e. net present value (NPV) and production costs) of agroforestry and forestry systems on salt-affected soils (biosaline (agro)forestry) based on three case studies in South Asia. The economic impact of trading carbon credits generated by biosaline (agro)forestry is also assessed as a potential additional source of income. The greenhouse gas balance shows carbon sequestration over the plantation lifetime of 24 Mg CO2-eq. ha(-1) in a rice-Eucalyptus camaldulensis agroforestry system on moderately saline soils in coastal Bangladesh (case study 1), 6 Mg CO2-eq. ha(-1) in the rice-wheat- Eucalyptus tereticornis agroforestry system on sodic/saline-sodic soils in Haryana state, India (case study 2), and 96 Mg CO2-eq. ha(-1) in the compact tree (Acacia nilotica) plantation on saline-sodic soils in Punjab province of Pakistan. The NPV at a discount rate of 10% is 1.1 k€ ha(-1) for case study 1, 4.8 k€ ha(-1) for case study 2, and 2.8 k€ ha(-1) for case study 3. Carbon sequestration translates into economic values that increase the NPV by 1-12% in case study 1, 0.1-1% in case study 2, and 2-24% in case study 3 depending on the carbon credit price (1-15 € Mg(-1) CO2-eq.). The analysis of the three cases indicates that the economic performance strongly depends on the type and severity of salt-affectedness (which affect the type and setup of the agroforestry system, the tree species and the biomass yield), markets for wood products, possibility of trading carbon credits, and discount rate.

This study assesses the socio-economic impacts in terms of value added, imports and employment of sugarcane-derived bioethanol production in Northeast (NE) Brazil. An extended inter-regional Input–Output (IO) model has been developed and is used to analyse three scenarios, all projected for 2020: a business-as-usual scenario (BaU) which projects current practices, and two scenarios that consider more efficient agricultural practices and processing efficiency (scenario A) and in addition an expansion of the sector into new areas (scenario B). By 2020 in all scenarios, value added and imports increase compared to the current situation. The value added by the sugarcane–ethanol sector in the NE region is 2.8 billion US$ in the BaU scenario, almost 4 billion US$ in scenario A, and 9.4 billion US$ in scenario B. The imports in the region will grow with 4% (BaU scenario), 38% (scenario A) and 262% (scenario B). This study shows that the large reduction of employment (114,000 jobs) due to the replacement of manual harvesting by mechanical harvesting can be offset by additional production and indirect effects. The total employment in the region by 2020 grows with 10% in scenario A (around 12,500 jobs) and 126% in scenario B (around 160,000 jobs). The indirect effects of sugarcane production in the NE are large in the rest of Brazil due to the import of inputs from these regions. The use of an extended inter-regional IO model can quantify direct and indirect socio-economic effects at regional level and can provide insight in the linkages between regions. The application of the model to NE Brazil has demonstrated significant positive socio-economic impacts that can be achieved when developing and expanding the sugarcane–ethanol sector in the region under the conditions studied here, not only for the NE region itself but also for the economy of the rest of Brazil.

Electric vehicles (EVs) are currently seen as an option for a more sustainable transportation sector, but it is not yet clear how to supply them with electricity whilst striving for low costs and low CO2 emissions. Renewable sources can supply electricity with low emissions, but their penetration rate is still insufficient to meet current demand, let alone the extra demand of EVs. A promising option is supply by Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants with high combined efficiencies, but an in-depth evaluation of the benefits of combining of EVs and CHP plants is still missing. Therefore, this study evaluates the performance of four different types of CHP plants to power electric vehicles, as compared to use of electricity from the grid. The performance of CHP plants is simulated using detailed datasets of the composition of a future power system, the demand for household electricity and heat, and technical specifications of CHP plants and electric vehicles. We find that the lowest abatement costs of 60–190 €/tCO2 are achieved with grid electricity based on a low-carbon electricity mix compared to a business-as-usual electricity mix with marginal emissions of 450–500 gCO2/kW h. When electricity is supplied by CHP plants, emissions are 1000 to 400 gCO2/kW h, and abatement costs are 165–940 €/tCO2. We did not observe added benefits of joint implementation of CHP plants and EVs: the timing of CHP electricity supply and EV electricity demand did not match well, and abatement costs were not lowered

A method and tool have been developed to assess future developments in land availability for bioenergy crops in a spatially explicit way, while taking into account both the developments in other land use functions, such as land for food, livestock and material production, and the uncertainties in the key determinant factors of land use change (LUC). This spatiotemporal LUC model is demonstrated with a case study on the developments in the land availability for bioenergy crops in Mozambique in the timeframe 2005–2030. The developments in the main drivers for agricultural land use, demand for food, animal products and materials were assessed, based on the projected developments in population, diet, GDP and self-sufficiency ratio. Two scenarios were developed: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a progressive scenario. Land allocation was based on land use class-specific sets of suitability factors. The LUC dynamics were mapped on a 1 km2 grid level for each individual year up to 2030. In the BAU scenario, 7.7 Mha and in the progressive scenario 16.4 Mha could become available for bioenergy crop production in 2030. Based on the Monte Carlo analysis, a 95% confidence interval of the amount of land available and the spatially explicit probability of available land was found. The bottom-up approach, the number of dynamic land uses, the diverse portfolio of LUC drivers and suitability factors, and the possibility to model uncertainty mean that this model is a step forward in modelling land availability for bioenergy potentials.

Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSSs) often include models that can be used to assess the impact of possible decisions. These models usually simulate complex spatio-temporal phenomena, with input variables and parameters that are often hard to measure. The resulting model uncertainty is, however, rarely communicated to the user, so that current SDSSs yield clear, but therefore sometimes deceptively precise outputs. Inclusion of uncertainty in SDSSs requires modeling methods to calculate uncertainty and tools to visualize indicators of uncertainty that can be understood by its users, having mostly limited knowledge of spatial statistics. This research makes an important step towards a solution of this issue. It illustrates the construction of the PCRaster Land Use Change model (PLUC) that integrates simulation, uncertainty analysis and visualization. It uses the PCRaster Python framework, which comprises both a spatio-temporal modeling framework and a Monte Carlo analysis framework that together produce stochastic maps, which can be visualized with the Aguila software, included in the PCRaster Python distribution package. This is illustrated by a case study for Mozambique in which it is evaluated where bioenergy crops can be cultivated without endangering nature areas and food production now and in the near future, when population and food intake per capita will increase and thus arable land and pasture areas are likely to expand. It is shown how the uncertainty of the input variables and model parameters effects the model outcomes. Evaluation of spatio-temporal uncertainty patterns has provided new insights in the modeled land use system about, e.g., the shape of concentric rings around cities. In addition, the visualization modes give uncertainty information in an comprehensible way for users without specialist knowledge of statistics, for example by means of confidence intervals for potential bioenergy crop yields. The coupling of spatio-temporal uncertainty analysis to the simulation model is considered a major step forward in the exposure of uncertainty in SDSSs.

Many countries worldwide are increasingly engaging in the promotion of biomass production for industrial uses such as biofuels and bioproducts (chemicals, bioplastics, etc.). Until today, mainly biofuels were supported by European policies, but support for bioproducts is still lacking behind. Thus, also the public sustainability debate concentrated on biofuels, but so far not on bioproducts. Driven by the strong public debate on sustainability aspects, biofuels are confronted with many environmental and socio-economic impacts. For instance, social impacts, which can be both positive and negative, include property rights, labour conditions, social welfare, economic wealth, poverty reduction, etc. In order to address these sustainability aspects of biomass production for industrial uses, different national and international efforts towards certification systems have been evolving, including the European Renewable Energy Directive (RED). However, besides many efforts on environmental aspects, there is a general lack of socio-economic considerations. This gap is addressed by the EU-FP7 Global-Bio-Pact project in a comprehensive approach involving partners from Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Asia. The main aim of the Global-Bio-Pact project is the improvement and harmonisation of global sustainability certification systems for biomass production, conversion systems and trade in order to prevent negative socio-economic impacts. Thereby, emphasis is placed on an assessment of the socio-economic impacts of raw material production and a variety of biomass conversion chains. This paper presents an overview of socioeconomic sustainability issues of biofuels and bioproducts worldwide based on first results of the Global-Bio-Pact Case Studies in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Costa Rica, Europe, Indonesia, Mali, and Tanzania. These Case Studies investigate the whole value chain from feedstock production to intermediate and end products. They include the production and conversion chains of jatropha, palm oil, soy, sugar cane and lignocellulosic biomass which are investigated at different scales.

We examine efficiency, costs and greenhouse gas emissions of current and future electric cars (EV), including the impact from charging EV on electricity demand and infrastructure for generation and distribution. Uncoordinated charging would increase national peak load by 7% at 30% penetration rate of EV and household peak load by 54%, which may exceed the capacity of existing electricity distribution infrastructure. At 30% penetration of EV, off-peak charging would result in a 20% higher, more stable base load and no additional peak load at the national level and up to 7% higher peak load at the household level. Therefore, if off-peak charging is successfully introduced, electric driving need not require additional generation capacity, even in case of 100% switch to electric vehicles. GHG emissions from electric driving depend most on the fuel type (coal or natural gas) used in the generation of electricity for charging, and range between 0 g km−1 (using renewables) and 155 g km−1 (using electricity from an old coal-based plant). Based on the generation capacity projected for the Netherlands in 2015, electricity for EV charging would largely be generated using natural gas, emitting 35–77 g CO2 eq km−1. We find that total cost of ownership (TCO) of current EV are uncompetitive with regular cars and series hybrid cars by more than 800 € year−1. TCO of future wheel motor PHEV may become competitive when batteries cost 400 € kWh−1, even without tax incentives, as long as one battery pack can last for the lifespan of the vehicle. However, TCO of future battery powered cars is at least 25% higher than of series hybrid or regular cars. This cost gap remains unless cost of batteries drops to 150 € kWh−1 in the future. Variations in driving cost from charging patterns have negligible influence on TCO. GHG abatement costs using plug-in hybrid cars are currently 400–1400 € tonne−1 CO2 eq and may come down to −100 to 300 € tonne−1. Abatement cost using battery powered cars are currently above 1900 € tonne−1 and are not projected to drop below 300–800 € tonne−1.

This paper discusses if, how fast and to what maximum yield improvements can be realized in Europe in the coming decades and what the opportunities and relations are to biomass production. The starting point for the analysis is the historic context of developments in European agriculture over the past five decades. Historic developments in European crop and animal protein productivity between 1961 and 2007 show an average mean annual growth rate of 1.6%. In relative terms developments are slower on average in the Netherlands and France at 1.0% y −1 than in Poland and Ukraine (USSR) at 2.2% y −1 . In absolute figures, however, growth has been considerable in WEC and modest in the CEEC. Yield trends further show that significant yield changes can be realized over a short period of time. Positive growth rates of 3–5% y −1 were reached in several countries and for several crops in several decades. In Eastern European countries during their transition in the 1990s, negative growth rates as low as −7% y −1 occurred. Outcomes suggest that productivity levels can be actively steered rather than being just the result of autonomous developments. Current yield gaps differ greatly between Western Europe (France −1 . High yielding lignocellulosic crops could double this potential. It is concluded that the potential to free-up agricultural lands for the production of bioenergy crops in Europe is considerable. The degree to and the pace at which yields develop will determine how much of the potential is opened up. Agricultural policy and technological development are key to open up the potential.

The wood pellet market is booming in Europe. The EU 2020 policy targets for renewable energy sources and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction are among the main drivers. The aim of this analysis is to map cur- rent European national wood pellet demand and supplies, to provide a comprehensive overview of major market types and prices, and to discuss the future outlook in light of raw material supply. Approximately 650 pellet plants produced more than 10 million tonnes of pellets in 2009 in Europe. Total European consumption was about 9.8 mil- lion tonnes, of which some 9.2 million tonnes is within the EU-27, representing a modest 0.2% of Gross Energy Consumption (75 EJ level in 2008). The prices of most pellet types are increasing. While most markets of non-indus- trial pellets are largely self-suffi cient, industrial pellet markets depend on the import of wood pellets from outside the EU-27. Industrial pellet markets are relatively mature, compared to non-industrial ones, because of their advanced storage facilities and long-term price-setting. However, industrial pellet markets are unstable, depending mainly on the establishment or the abolishment of public support schemes. Following our scenarios, additional 2020 demand for woody biomass varies from 105 million tonnes, based on mar- ket forecasts for pellets in the energy sector and a reference growth of the forest sector, to 305 million tonnes, based on maximum demand in energy and transport sectors and a rapid growth of the forest sector. Additional supply of woody biomass may vary from 45 million tonnes from increased harvest levels to 400 million tonnes after the recovery of slash via altered forest management, the recovery of waste wood via recycling, and the establishment of woody energy plantations in the future. Any short-term shortages within the EU-27 may be bridged via imports from nearby regions such as north west Russia or overseas. © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd Supporting information may be found in the online version of this article.