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1. Effects of meteorological factors on epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: a statistical modelling approach based on theoretical reasoning

Author

D. Alamirew, A. Seifu, A. Tadege, Gerard J. J. M. Borsboom, H. Gebreyohannes, Nico J. D. Nagelkerke, J. D. F. Habbema, Y. Gebreyesus, Tarekegn A. Abeku, S. J. De Vlas, and Public Health

Subjects
Mixed model, Rural Population, Rain, Plasmodium falciparum, Biology, Models, Biological, Malaria transmission, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, Statistics, parasitic diseases, medicine, Animals, Humans, Malaria, Falciparum, Protozoal disease, Maximum temperature, Models, Statistical, Ecology, Incidence (epidemiology), Altitude, Incidence, Linear model, Temperature, Statistical model, medicine.disease, Infectious Diseases, Animal Science and Zoology, Parasitology, Ethiopia, Malaria
Abstract

This study was conducted to quantify the association between meteorological variables and incidence of Plasmodium falciparum in areas with unstable malaria transmission in Ethiopia. We used morbidity data pertaining to microscopically confirmed cases reported from 35 sites throughout Ethiopia over a period of approximately 6–7 years. A model was developed reflecting biological relationships between meteorological and morbidity variables. A model that included rainfall 2 and 3 months earlier, mean minimum temperature of the previous month and P. falciparum case incidence during the previous month was fitted to morbidity data from the various areas. The model produced similar percentages of over-estimation (19·7% of predictions exceeded twice the observed values) and under-estimation (18·6% were less than half the observed values). Inclusion of maximum temperature did not improve the model. The model performed better in areas with relatively high or low incidence (>85% of the total variance explained) than those with moderate incidence (55–85% of the total variance explained). The study indicated that a dynamic immunity mechanism is needed in a prediction model. The potential usefulness and drawbacks of the modelling approach in studying the weather–malaria relationship are discussed, including a need for mechanisms that can adequately handle temporal variations in immunity to malaria.

Published
2004

2. Food handling practice and associated factors among food handlers in public food establishments of Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Author

Tadele MM, Dagnaw A, and Alamirew D

Subjects
Cross-Sectional Studies, Data Collection, Ethiopia, Humans, Food Handling
Abstract

Objectives: Food handlers are individuals who are involved in food preparation, storage or service of food in a food facility. Unless they keep their personal hygiene, they are highly responsible for contaminating food or transmitting microbes to consumers. Thus, the main aim of this review was to pool the level of good food handling practice among food handlers working in public food establishments in Ethiopia., Design: A systematic review and meta-analysis using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Critical Appraisal tool., Data Sources: PubMed, Google Scholar and Advanced Google were searched up to the end of February 2021., Eligibility Criteria for Selecting Studies: Publication status, publication language, type of study participants and the type of article were used to screen the article., Data Extraction and Study Quality Assessment: All reviewers collected data independently and merged them together. A tool called the JBI Meta-Analysis of Statistics Assessment and Review Instrument was used to assess the quality of each research article. The assessment was performed by two reviewers., Result: A total of 16 research articles were included in the review. The pooled level of good food handling practice was 50.72% with 95% CI (43.84% to 57.6%). Training (adjusted OR (AOR)=3.4, 95% CI (2.33 to 4.95)), attitude (AOR=3.62, 95% CI (2.23 to 5.85)) and medical check-up (AOR=5.12, 95% CI (2.93 to 8.95)) were identified as factors affecting good food handling practice with 95% CI at p<0.05., Conclusion: The level of good food handling practice among food handlers working in public food establishments of Ethiopia was very low compared with literature, and variables such as food handler training, attitude towards good food handling practice and the existence of regular medical check-ups were factors affecting good food handling practice. Provision of training that could change the attitude and regular medical check-ups for food handlers has to be in place., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Published
2022
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