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1. Eliminating perinatal transmission of hepatitis B virus: it is time for action

Author

Tohme, Rania A., Wang, Su, Cowie, Benjamin, Dudareva, Sandra, and Wester, Carolyn

Subjects
Infection -- Development and progression, Hepatitis B -- Development and progression, Liver cancer -- Development and progression, Hepatitis B virus -- Development and progression, Health
Abstract

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a leading cause of liver cirrhosis and liver cancer causing 1.1 million deaths globally in 2022 [1]. In 2022, an estimated 254 million [...]

Published
2024
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2. Associations between COVID-19 and hospitalisation with respiratory and non-respiratory conditions: a record linkage study.

Author

Rowe, Stacey, Leder, Karin, Dyson, Kylie, Sundaresan, Lalitha, Wollersheim, Dennis, Lynch, Brigid, Abdullahi, Ifrah, Cowie, Benjamin, Stephens, Nicola, Nolan, Terence, Sullivan, Sheena, Sutton, Brett, and Cheng, Allen

Subjects
COVID-19, Epidemiology, Hospitals, Public health, SARS-COV-2, Humans, COVID-19, COVID-19 Vaccines, SARS-CoV-2, Hospitalization, Myocardial Infarction
Abstract

OBJECTIVES: To assess associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection and the incidence of hospitalisation with selected respiratory and non-respiratory conditions in a largely SARS-CoV-2 vaccine-naïve population . DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Self-control case series; analysis of population-wide surveillance and administrative data for all laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases notified to the Victorian Department of Health (onset, 23 January 2020 - 31 May 2021; ie, prior to widespread vaccination rollout) and linked hospital admissions data (admission dates to 30 September 2021). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Hospitalisation of people with acute COVID-19; incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing incidence of hospitalisations with defined conditions (including cardiac, cerebrovascular, venous thrombo-embolic, coagulative, and renal disorders) from three days before to within 89 days of onset of COVID-19 with incidence during baseline period (60-365 days prior to COVID-19 onset). RESULTS: A total of 20 594 COVID-19 cases were notified; 2992 people (14.5%) were hospitalised with COVID-19. The incidence of hospitalisation within 89 days of onset of COVID-19 was higher than during the baseline period for several conditions, including myocarditis and pericarditis (IRR, 14.8; 95% CI, 3.2-68.3), thrombocytopenia (IRR, 7.4; 95% CI, 4.4-12.5), pulmonary embolism (IRR, 6.4; 95% CI, 3.6-11.4), acute myocardial infarction (IRR, 3.9; 95% CI, 2.6-5.8), and cerebral infarction (IRR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.4-3.9). CONCLUSION: SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with higher incidence of hospitalisation with several respiratory and non-respiratory conditions. Our findings reinforce the value of COVID-19 mitigation measures such as vaccination, and awareness of these associations should assist the clinical management of people with histories of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Published
2023

3. Evaluating a novel model of hepatitis B care, Hep B PAST, in the Northern Territory of Australia: results from a prospective, population-based study

Author

Hosking, Kelly, Binks, Paula, De Santis, Teresa, Wilson, Phillip Merrdi, Gurruwiwi, George Garambaka, Bukulatjpi, Sarah Mariyalawuy, Vintour-Cesar, Emily, McKinnon, Melita, Nihill, Peter, Fernandes, Tammy-Allyn, Greenwood-Smith, Belinda, Batey, Robert, Ross, Cheryl, Tong, Steven Y.C., Stewart, Geoffrey, Marshall, Catherine, Gargan, Catherine, Manchikanti, Prashanti, Fuller, Karen, Tate-Baker, Jaclyn, Stewart, Sami, Cowie, Benjamin, Allard, Nicole, MacLachlan, Jennifer H., Qama, Ashleigh, Boettiger, David, Davis, Joshua S., Connors, Christine, and Davies, Jane

Published
2024
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4. Performance of hospital-based contact tracing for COVID-19 during Australias second wave.

Author

Bailie, Christopher, Leung, Vivian, Orr, Elizabeth, Singleton, Elizabeth, Kelly, Cate, Buising, Kirsty, Cowie, Benjamin, Kirk, Martyn, Sullivan, Sheena, and Marshall, Caroline

Subjects
COVID-19, Contact tracing, Healthcare, Hospital, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, Contact Tracing, Hospitals, Humans, Quarantine, SARS-CoV-2
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Hospital-based contact tracing aims to limit spread of COVID-19 within healthcare facilities. In large outbreaks, this can stretch resources and workforce due to quarantine of uninfected staff. We analysed the performance of a manual contact tracing system for healthcare workers (HCW) at a multi-site healthcare facility in Melbourne, Australia, from June-September 2020, during an epidemic of COVID-19. METHODS: All HCW close contacts were quarantined for 14 days, and tested around day 11, if not already diagnosed with COVID-19. We examined the prevalence and timing of symptoms in cases detected during quarantine, described this group as proportions of all close contacts and of all cases, and used logistic regression to assess factors associated with infection. RESULTS: COVID-19 was diagnosed during quarantine in 52 furloughed HCWs, from 483 quarantine episodes (11%), accounting for 19% (52/270) of total HCW cases. In 361 exposures to a clear index case, odds of infection were higher after contact with an infectious patient compared to an infectious HCW (aOR: 4.69, 95% CI: 1.98-12.14). Contact with cases outside the workplace increased odds of infection compared to workplace contact only (aOR: 7.70, 95% CI: 2.63-23.05). We estimated 30%, 78% and 95% of symptomatic cases would develop symptoms by days 3, 7, and 11 of quarantine, respectively. CONCLUSION: In our setting, hospital-based contact tracing detected and contained a significant proportion of HCW cases, without excessive quarantine of uninfected staff. Effectiveness of contact tracing is determined by a range of dynamic factors, so system performance should be monitored in real-time.

Published
2022

13. Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Murray, Christopher JL, Ortblad, Katrina F, Guinovart, Caterina, Lim, Stephen S, Wolock, Timothy M, Roberts, D Allen, Dansereau, Emily A, Graetz, Nicholas, Barber, Ryan M, Brown, Jonathan C, Wang, Haidong, Duber, Herbert C, Naghavi, Mohsen, Dicker, Daniel, Dandona, Lalit, Salomon, Joshua A, Heuton, Kyle R, Foreman, Kyle, Phillips, David E, Fleming, Thomas D, Flaxman, Abraham D, Phillips, Bryan K, Johnson, Elizabeth K, Coggeshall, Megan S, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abraham, Jerry P, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me, Achoki, Tom, Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi, Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar, José C, Agardh, Emilie Elisabet, Akena, Dickens, Al Kahbouri, Mazin J, Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I, Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel, Alegretti, Miguel Angel, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alla, Francois, Allen, Peter J, Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Hassan, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, Benjamin O, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Arnlöv, Johan, Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic, Artaman, Ali, Asghar, Rana J, Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Beardsley, Justin, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bernabe, Eduardo, Beyene, Tariku Jibat, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Abdulhak, Aref Bin, Binagwaho, Agnes, Blore, Jed D, Basara, Berrak Bora, Bose, Dipan, Brainin, Michael, Breitborde, Nicholas, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Chadha, Vineet K, Chang, Jung-Chen, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Colomar, Mercedes, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cooper, Cyrus, Courville, Karen J, Cowie, Benjamin C, Criqui, Michael H, Dandona, Rakhi, Dayama, Anand, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, and Deribe, Kebede

Subjects
HIV/AIDS, Prevention, Rare Diseases, Vector-Borne Diseases, Infectious Diseases, 2.2 Factors relating to the physical environment, 2.4 Surveillance and distribution, Aetiology, Infection, Good Health and Well Being, Age Distribution, Epidemics, Female, Global Health, HIV Infections, Humans, Incidence, Malaria, Male, Mortality, Organizational Objectives, Sex Distribution, Tuberculosis, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine
Abstract

BackgroundThe Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.MethodsTo estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.FindingsGlobally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.InterpretationOur estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2014

17. Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

Author

Lozano, Rafael, Naghavi, Mohsen, Foreman, Kyle, Lim, Stephen, Shibuya, Kenji, Aboyans, Victor, Abraham, Jerry, Adair, Timothy, Aggarwal, Rakesh, Ahn, Stephanie, Alvarado, Miriam, Anderson, H, Anderson, Laurie, Andrews, Kathryn, Atkinson, Charles, Baddour, Larry, Barker-Collo, Suzanne, Bartels, David, Bell, Michelle, Benjamin, Emelia, Bennett, Derrick, Bhalla, Kavi, Bikbov, Boris, Bin Abdulhak, Aref, Birbeck, Gretchen, Blyth, Fiona, Bolliger, Ian, Boufous, Soufiane, Bucello, Chiara, Burch, Michael, Burney, Peter, Carapetis, Jonathan, Chen, Honglei, Chou, David, Chugh, Sumeet, Coffeng, Luc, Colan, Steven, Colquhoun, Samantha, Colson, K, Condon, John, Connor, Myles, Cooper, Leslie, Corriere, Matthew, Cortinovis, Monica, de Vaccaro, Karen, Couser, William, Cowie, Benjamin, Criqui, Michael, Cross, Marita, Dabhadkar, Kaustubh, Dahodwala, Nabila, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Delossantos, Allyne, Denenberg, Julie, Des Jarlais, Don, Dharmaratne, Samath, Dorsey, E, Driscoll, Tim, Duber, Herbert, Ebel, Beth, Erwin, Patricia, Espindola, Patricia, Ezzati, Majid, Feigin, Valery, Flaxman, Abraham, Forouzanfar, Mohammad, Fowkes, Francis, Franklin, Richard, Fransen, Marlene, Freeman, Michael, Gabriel, Sherine, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Gaspari, Flavio, Gillum, Richard, Gonzalez-Medina, Diego, Halasa, Yara, Haring, Diana, Harrison, James, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hay, Roderick, Hoen, Bruno, Hotez, Peter, Hoy, Damian, Jacobsen, Kathryn, James, Spencer, Jasrasaria, Rashmi, Jayaraman, Sudha, Johns, Nicole, Karthikeyan, Ganesan, Kassebaum, Nicholas, Keren, Andre, Khoo, Jon-Paul, Knowlton, Lisa, Kobusingye, Olive, Koranteng, Adofo, Krishnamurthi, Rita, Lipnick, Michael, Lipshultz, Steven, and Ohno, Summer

Subjects
Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cause of Death, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Global Health, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Sex Factors, Young Adult
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex. METHODS: We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. FINDINGS: In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimers disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted. INTERPRETATION: Population growth, increased average age of the worlds population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2012

18. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Author

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Theo, Flaxman, Abraham D, Danaei, Goodarz, Shibuya, Kenji, Adair-Rohani, Heather, AlMazroa, Mohammad A, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Atkinson, Charles, Bacchus, Loraine J, Bahalim, Adil N, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Balmes, John, Barker-Collo, Suzanne, Baxter, Amanda, Bell, Michelle L, Blore, Jed D, Blyth, Fiona, Bonner, Carissa, Borges, Guilherme, Bourne, Rupert, Boussinesq, Michel, Brauer, Michael, Brooks, Peter, Bruce, Nigel G, Brunekreef, Bert, Bryan-Hancock, Claire, Bucello, Chiara, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Bull, Fiona, Burnett, Richard T, Byers, Tim E, Calabria, Bianca, Carapetis, Jonathan, Carnahan, Emily, Chafe, Zoe, Charlson, Fiona, Chen, Honglei, Chen, Jian Shen, Cheng, Andrew Tai-Ann, Child, Jennifer Christine, Cohen, Aaron, Colson, K Ellicott, Cowie, Benjamin C, Darby, Sarah, Darling, Susan, Davis, Adrian, Degenhardt, Louisa, Dentener, Frank, Jarlais, Don C Des, Devries, Karen, Dherani, Mukesh, Ding, Eric L, Dorsey, E Ray, Driscoll, Tim, Edmond, Karen, Ali, Suad Eltahir, Engell, Rebecca E, Erwin, Patricia J, Fahimi, Saman, Falder, Gail, Farzadfar, Farshad, Ferrari, Alize, Finucane, Mariel M, Flaxman, Seth, Fowkes, Francis Gerry R, Freedman, Greg, Freeman, Michael K, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Ghosh, Santu, Giovannucci, Edward, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anthony, Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian, Hu, Howard, Hubbell, Bryan J, Hutchings, Sally J, Ibeanusi, Sydney E, Jacklyn, Gemma L, Jasrasaria, Rashmi, Jonas, Jost B, Kan, Haidong, Kanis, John A, Kassebaum, Nicholas, Kawakami, Norito, Khang, Young-Ho, Khatibzadeh, Shahab, Khoo, Jon-Paul, and Kok, Cindy

Subjects
Tobacco Smoke and Health, Prevention, Tobacco, Burden of Illness, Nutrition, Pediatric, 2.2 Factors relating to the physical environment, 2.3 Psychological, social and economic factors, Aetiology, Respiratory, Cardiovascular, Good Health and Well Being, Clean Water and Sanitation, Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Global Health, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Young Adult, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine
Abstract

BackgroundQuantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time.MethodsWe estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden.FindingsIn 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania.InterpretationWorldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2012

19. Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Author

Vos, Theo, Flaxman, Abraham D, Naghavi, Mohsen, Lozano, Rafael, Michaud, Catherine, Ezzati, Majid, Shibuya, Kenji, Salomon, Joshua A, Abdalla, Safa, Aboyans, Victor, Abraham, Jerry, Ackerman, Ilana, Aggarwal, Rakesh, Ahn, Stephanie Y, Ali, Mohammed K, AlMazroa, Mohammad A, Alvarado, Miriam, Anderson, H Ross, Anderson, Laurie M, Andrews, Kathryn G, Atkinson, Charles, Baddour, Larry M, Bahalim, Adil N, Barker-Collo, Suzanne, Barrero, Lope H, Bartels, David H, Basáñez, Maria-Gloria, Baxter, Amanda, Bell, Michelle L, Benjamin, Emelia J, Bennett, Derrick, Bernabé, Eduardo, Bhalla, Kavi, Bhandari, Bishal, Bikbov, Boris, Bin Abdulhak, Aref, Birbeck, Gretchen, Black, James A, Blencowe, Hannah, Blore, Jed D, Blyth, Fiona, Bolliger, Ian, Bonaventure, Audrey, Boufous, Soufiane, Bourne, Rupert, Boussinesq, Michel, Braithwaite, Tasanee, Brayne, Carol, Bridgett, Lisa, Brooker, Simon, Brooks, Peter, Brugha, Traolach S, Bryan-Hancock, Claire, Bucello, Chiara, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Buckle, Geoffrey, Budke, Christine M, Burch, Michael, Burney, Peter, Burstein, Roy, Calabria, Bianca, Campbell, Benjamin, Canter, Charles E, Carabin, Hélène, Carapetis, Jonathan, Carmona, Loreto, Cella, Claudia, Charlson, Fiona, Chen, Honglei, Cheng, Andrew Tai-Ann, Chou, David, Chugh, Sumeet S, Coffeng, Luc E, Colan, Steven D, Colquhoun, Samantha, Colson, K Ellicott, Condon, John, Connor, Myles D, Cooper, Leslie T, Corriere, Matthew, Cortinovis, Monica, de Vaccaro, Karen Courville, Couser, William, Cowie, Benjamin C, Criqui, Michael H, Cross, Marita, Dabhadkar, Kaustubh C, Dahiya, Manu, Dahodwala, Nabila, Damsere-Derry, James, Danaei, Goodarz, Davis, Adrian, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Dellavalle, Robert, Delossantos, Allyne, Denenberg, Julie, Derrett, Sarah, Jarlais, Don C Des, and Dharmaratne, Samath D

Subjects
Epidemiology, Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Public Health, Health Sciences, Pain Research, Mental Health, Infectious Diseases, Prevention, Rare Diseases, Aetiology, 2.2 Factors relating to the physical environment, 2.4 Surveillance and distribution, Good Health and Well Being, Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Global Health, Health Status, Humans, Incidence, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Prevalence, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Sex Factors, Wounds and Injuries, Young Adult, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine, Biomedical and clinical sciences, Health sciences
Abstract

BackgroundNon-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs).MethodsOf the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis.FindingsGlobal prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa.InterpretationRates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2012

27. Hepatitis B immunization for indigenous adults, Australia/Vaccination des adultes autochtones contre l'hepatite B, Australie/Inmunizacion contra la hepatitis B para adultos indigenas en Australia

Author

Wattiaux, Andre Louis, Yin, J. Kevin, Beard, Frank, Wesselingh, Steve, Cowie, Benjamin, Ward, James, and Macartney, Kristine

Subjects
Medical research -- Health aspects, Medicine, Experimental -- Health aspects, Australian aborigines -- Health aspects, Immunization -- Health aspects, Infection -- Health aspects, Hepatitis B -- Health aspects, Markov processes -- Health aspects, Type 2 diabetes -- Health aspects, Hepatitis B vaccine -- Health aspects, Monte Carlo method -- Health aspects, Health, World Health Organization
Abstract

Objective To quantify the disparity in incidence of hepatitis B between indigenous and non-indigenous people in Australia, and to estimate the potential impact of a hepatitis B immunization programme targeting [...]

Published
2016
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28. The COVID Positive Pathway: a collaboration between public health agencies, primary care, and metropolitan hospitals in Melbourne

Author

Lim, Seok Ming, Allard, Nicole L., Devereux, Janelle, Cowie, Benjamin C., Tydeman, Michelle, Miller, Alistair, Ho, Khanh, Cleveland, Brigitte, Singleton, Liz, Aarons, Karen, Eleftheriou, Paul, Chan, Thomas, Braitberg, George, Maier, Andrea, Lim, Seok Ming, Allard, Nicole L., Devereux, Janelle, Cowie, Benjamin C., Tydeman, Michelle, Miller, Alistair, Ho, Khanh, Cleveland, Brigitte, Singleton, Liz, Aarons, Karen, Eleftheriou, Paul, Chan, Thomas, Braitberg, George, and Maier, Andrea

Abstract

Objectives: To assess the capacity of the COVID Positive Pathway, a collaborative model of care involving the Victorian public health unit, hospital services, primary care, community organisations, and the North Western Melbourne Primary Health Network, to support people with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) isolating at home. Design, setting, participants: Cohort study of adults in northwest Melbourne with COVID-19, 3 August ‒ 31 December 2020. Main outcome measures: Demographic and clinical characteristics, and social and welfare needs of people cared for in the Pathway, by care tier level. Results: Of 1392 people referred to the Pathway by the public health unit, 858 were eligible for enrolment, and 711 consented to participation; 647 (91%) remained in the Pathway until they had recovered and isolation was no longer required. A total of 575 participants (81%) received care in primary care, mostly from their usual general practitioners; 155 people (22%) received care from hospital outreach services, and 64 (9%) needed high tier care (hospitalisation). Assistance with food and other basic supplies was required by 239 people in the Pathway (34%). Conclusions: The COVID Positive Pathway is a feasible multidisciplinary, tiered model of care for people with COVID-19. About 80% of participants could be adequately supported by primary care and community organisations, allowing hospital services to be reserved for people with more severe illness or with risk factors for disease progression. The principles of this model could be applied to other health conditions if regulatory and funding barriers to information-sharing and care delivery by health care providers can be overcome.

Published
2022
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32. A hospital-wide response to multiple outbreaks of COVID-19 in health care workers: lessons learned from the field

Author

Buising, Kirsty L., Williamson, Deborah, Cowie, Benjamin C., MacLachlan, Jennifer, Orr, Elizabeth, MacIsaac, Christopher, Williams, Eloise, Bond, Katherine, Muhi, Stephen, McCarthy, James, Maier, Andrea B., Irving, Louis, Heinjus, Denise, Kelly, Cate, Marshall, Caroline, Buising, Kirsty L., Williamson, Deborah, Cowie, Benjamin C., MacLachlan, Jennifer, Orr, Elizabeth, MacIsaac, Christopher, Williams, Eloise, Bond, Katherine, Muhi, Stephen, McCarthy, James, Maier, Andrea B., Irving, Louis, Heinjus, Denise, Kelly, Cate, and Marshall, Caroline

Published
2021
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33. Markers of hepatitis B virus infection and immunity in Victoria, Australia, 1995 to 2005

Author

Cowie, Benjamin, Karapanagiotidis, Theo, Enriquez, Adam, and Kelly, Heath

Subjects
Hepatitis B virus -- Research, Community medicine -- Research, Prevalence studies (Epidemiology), Health
Abstract

Objective: Estimating the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in generally low-prevalence populations containing communities with a higher disease burden is difficult. This study was conducted to estimate the prevalence of serological markers of infection with, and immunity to, HBV in the Victorian population and to analyse trends in these estimates over time. Methods: A serological survey of 3,212 samples of convenience collected in the years 1995, 2000 and 2005 was conducted using a selection procedure designed to reduce selection bias. All samples were tested for hepatitis B surface and core antibodies; all core antibody positive samples (indicating previous infection) were then tested for the presence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). Results: HBsAg prevalence was 1.1% (95%CI 0.8-1.6%) with significant differences observed by area of residence, age, gender and test year. Serological evidence of immunisation in infants and adolescents were lower than established estimates following the introduction of universal vaccination for these groups. Conclusions: This study emphasises the significant and growing problem of chronic HBV infection in Victoria and suggests lower than expected population immunity deriving from universal vaccination programs. Implications: Greater efforts are needed to formulate a comprehensive public health response to address this relatively neglected blood borne viral infection, the burden of which is very significant in some marginalised sections of our community. Increased attention to improving the universality of our immunisation programs is also needed. Key words: hepatitis B, hepatitis B virus, epidemiology, serology, public health, Victoria. Aust NZ J Public Health. 2010; 34:72-8 doi: 10.1111/j.1753-6405.2010.00477.x

Published
2010

35. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Roth, Gregory A., Collaborotors, G. B. D.Causes Death, Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abay, Solomon M., Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Load, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abebe, Haftom Temesgen, Abebe, Molla, Abebe, Zegeye, Abejie, Ayenew Negesse, Abera, Semaw F., Abil, Olifan Zewdie, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abrham, Aklilu Roba, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Dilaram, Adamu, Abdu A., Adebayo, Oladimeji, Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adookunboh, Olatunii, Adhena, Beyene Meressa, Adib, Mina G., Admasie, Aniha, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Gina, Agesa, Karelia M., Agrawal, Anurag, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Melidi, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Ahmed, Sayent, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Fddine, Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil, Akinyeniti, Rufus Olusola, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M., Alandab, Fares, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Tahiya, Alebel, Animut, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, Francois, Allebeck, Peter, Alonso, Jordi, Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T., Aminde, Leopold N., Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Amoako, Yaw Ampern, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Animut, Megbaru Debalkie, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansari, Hossein, Aniha, Mustafa Geleto, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Anwari, Palwasha, Aremu, Olatunde, Arnlov, Johan, Arora, Amit, Arora, Monika, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna K., Asayesh, Hamid, Asfaw, Ephremi Tsegay, Ataro, Zerihun, Atique, Suleman, Atre, Sachin R., Ausloos, Marcel, Avokpaho, Euripide F. G. A., Awasthi, Ashish, Quintattilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, Ayele, Yohanes, Ayer, Rakesh, Azzopardi, Peter S., Babazadeh, Arefeh, Bacha, Umar, Badali, Hamid, Badawi, Alaa, Bali, Ayele Geleto, Ballesteros, Katherine E., Banach, Maciej, Banerjee, Kajori, Bannick, Marlena S., Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar, Barboza, Miguel A., Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyu, Barnighausen, Till Winfried, Barquera, Simon, Barrero, Lope, Bassat, Quique, Base, Sanjay, Baune, Bernhard T., Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw, Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Beth, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Behzadifar, Masoud, Behzadifar, Mcysam, Bejot, Yannick, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Belacliew, Abate Bekele, Belay, Ezra, Belay, Yihalem Abebe, Bell, Michelle L., Bello, Aminu K., Bennett, Derrick A., Bensenor, Isabela M., Berman, Adam F., Bernabe, Eduardo, Bernstein, Robert S., Bertolacci, Gregory J., Beuran, Mircea, Beyranvand, Tina, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhattarai, Suraj, Bhaumik, Sounayadeeep, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Biadgo, Belete, Biehl, Molly H., Bijani, Ali, Bikbov, Boris, Bilano, Ver, Bililign, Nigus, Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shandaat, Bisanzio, Donal, Biswas, Tuhin, Blacker, Brigitte F., Basara, Berrak Bora, Borschmann, Rohan, Bosetti, Cristina, Bozorgmehr, Kayvan, Brady, Oliver J., Brant, Luisa C., Brayne, Carol, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J. K., Brenner, Hermann, Briant, Paul Svitil, Britton, Gabrielle, Brugha, Traolach, Busse, Reinhard, Butt, Zahid A., Callender, Charlton S. K. H., Campos-Nonato, Ismael R., Rincon, Julio Cesar Canapuzano, Cano, Jorge, Car, Mate, Cardenas, Rosario, Carreras, Giulia, Carrero, Juan J., Carter, Austin, Carvalho, Felix, Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo, Castle, Chris D., Castro, Clara, Castro, Franz, Catala-Lopez, Ferran, Cerin, Ester, Chaiah, Yazan, Chang, Jung -Chen, Chanson, Fiona J., Chaturvedi, Pankaj, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Chitheet, Abdulaal, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Christopher, Devasahayam J., Chiang, Sheng-Chia, Cicuttini, Flavia M., Ciobanu, Liliana G., Cirillo, Massimo, Cohen, Aaron J., Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cortesi, Paolo Angelo, Cortinovis, Monica, Cousin, Ewerton, Cowie, Benjamin C., Criqui, Michael H., Cromwell, Elizabeth A., Crowe, Christopher Stephen, Crump, John A., Cunningham, Matthew, Daba, Alemneh Kabeta, Dadi, Abel Fekadu, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dang, Anh Kim, Dargan, Paul I., Daryani, Ahmad, Das, Siddharth K., Das Gupta, Rajat, Das Neves, Jose, Dasa, Tamirat Tesfaye, Dash, Aditya Prasad, Davis, Adrian C., Weaver, Nicole Davis, Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil, Davletov, Kairat, De La Hoz, Fernando Pio, De Neve, Jan-Walter, Degefa, Meaza Girma, Degenhardt, Louisa, Degfie, Tizta T., Deiparine, Selina, Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam, Demtsu, Baleen Betsu, Denova-Gutierrez, Edgar, Deribe, Kebede, Dervenis, Nikolaos, Jarlais, Don C. Des, Dessie, Getenet Ayalew, Dey, Subhojit, Dhannaratne, Samath D., Dicker, Daniel, Dinberu, Mesfin Tadese, Ding, Eric L., Dirac, M. Ashworth, Djalalinia, Shirin, Dokova, Klara, Ter Doku, David, Donnelly, Christl A., Dorsey, E. Ray, Doshi, Pratik P., Douwes-Schultz, Dirk, Doyle, Kerrie E., Driscoll, Tim R., Dubey, Manisha, Dubljanin, Eleonora, Duken, Eyasu Ejeta, Duncan, Bruce B., Duraes, Andre R., Ebrahimi, Hedyeh, Ebrahimpour, Soheil, Edessa, Dumessa, Edvardsson, David, Eggen, Anne Elise, El Bcheraoui, Charbel, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, El-Khatib, Ziad, Elkout, Hajer, Eltinsel, Christian Lycke, Endres, Matthias, Endries, Aman Yesuf, Er, Benjamin, Erskine, Holly E., Eshrati, Babak, Eskandarieh, Sharareh, Esmaeili, Reza, Esteghamati, Alireza, Fakhar, Mahdi, Fakhim, Hamed, Faramarzi, Mahbobeh, Fareed, Mohammad, Farhadi, Farzaneh, Faninha, Carla Sofia E. Sa, Faro, Andre, Farvid, Maryam S., Farzadfar, Farshad, Farzaei, Mohammad Hosein, Feign, Valery L., Feigl, Andrea B., Fentahun, Netsanet, Eereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Eduarda, Fernandes, Joao C., Ferrari, Alice J., Feyissa, Garumma Tolu, Filip, Irina, Finegold, Samuel, Fischer, Florian, Eitzmaurice, Christina, Foigt, Nataliya A., Foreman, Kyle J., Fornari, Carla, Frank, Tahvi D., Fukumoto, Takeshi, Fuller, John E., Fullman, Nancy, Furst, Thomas, Furtado, Joao M., Futran, Neal D., Gallus, Silvano, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L., Garcia-Gordillo, Miguel A., Gardner, William M., Gebre, Abadi Kahsu, Gebrehiwol, Tsegaye Tewelde, Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay, Gebremichael, Bereket, Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo, Gelano, Tilayie Feto, Geleijinse, Johanna M., Genova-Maleras, Ricard, Geramo, Yilma Chisha Dea, Gething, Peter W., Gezae, Kebede Embaye, Ghadami, Mohammad Rasoul, Ghadimi, Reza, Falavarjani, Khalil Ghasemi, Ghasemi-Kasman, Maryam, Ghimire, Mamata, Gibney, Katherine B., Gill, Paramjit Singh, Gill, Tiffany K., Gillum, Richard F., Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageed, Giroud, Maurice, Giussani, Giorgia, Goenka, Shifalika, Goldberg, Ellen M., Goli, Srinivas, Gomez-Dantes, Hector, Gona, Philimon N., Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Gorman, Taren M., Goto, Atsushi, Goulart, Alessandra C., Gnedovskaya, Elena V., Grada, Aymara, Grosso, Giuseppe, Gugnani, Hanish Chander, Guimaraes, Andre Luiz Sena, Gun, Nailing, Gupta, Prakash C., Gupta, Rahid, Gupta, Rajenv, Gupta, Tanush, Gutierrez, Reyna Alma, Gyawali, Bishal, Haagsma, Juanita A., Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hagos, Tekleberhan B., Hailegiyorgis, Tewodros Tesfa, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin, Haj-Mirzaian, Arya, Hamadeh, Randall R., Hamidi, Sinner, Handal, Meads J., Hankey, Graeme J., Harb, Hilda L., Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai, Haro, Josep Maria, Hasan, Mehedi, Hassankhani, Hadi, Hassen, Hamid, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hay, Roderick J., Hay, Simon I., He, Yihua, Hedayatizadeh-Omran, Akbar, Hegazy, Mohamed I., Heibati, Behzad, Heidari, Mohsen, Hendrie, Delia, Henok, Andualem, Henry, Nathaniel J., Herteliu, Claudiu, Heydarpour, Fatemeh, Heydarpour, Pouria, Heydarpour, Sousan, Hibstu, Desalegn Tsegaw, Hoek, Hans W., Hole, Michael K., Red, Enayatollah Homaie, Hoogar, Praveen, Hosgood, H. Dean, Hosseini, Seyed Mostafa, Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi, Hostiuc, Mihaela, Hostiuc, Sorin, Hotez, Peter J., Hoy, Damian C., Hsiao, Thomas, Hu, Guoqing, Huang, John J., Husseini, Abdullatif, Hussen, Mohammedaman Mama, Hutfless, Susan, Idrisov, Bulat, Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen, Iqbal, Usman, Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi, Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter, Islam, Nazrul, Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Islami, Farhad, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jahangiry, Leila, Jahanmehr, Nader, Jain, Sudhir Kumar, Jakovlievic, Mihajlo, Jalu, Moti Tolera, James, Spencer L., Javanbakht, Mehdi, Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jenkins, Kathy J., Jha, Ravi Prakash, Jha, Vivekanand, Johnson, Catherine O., Johnson, Sarah C., Jonas, Jost B., Joshi, Ankur, Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy, Jungari, Suresh Banayya, Jurisson, Mikk, Kabir, Zubair, Kadel, Rajendra, Kahsay, Amaha, Kalani, Rizwan, Karami, Manoochehr, Matin, Behzad Karami, Karch, Andre, Karema, Corine, Karimi-Sari, Hamidreza, Kasaeian, Amir, Kassa, Dessalegn H., Kassa, Getachew Mullu, Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale, Kassebaum, Nicholas J., Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Kaul, Anil, Kazemi, Zhila, Karyani, Ali Kazemi, Kazi, Dhruv Satish, Kefale, Adane Teshome, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Kemp, Grant Rodgers, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khafaei, Behzad, Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif, Khajavi, Alireza, Khalid, Nauman, Khalil, Ibrahim A., Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb, Khan, Muhammad Ali, Khang, Young-Ho, Khater, Mona M., Khoja, Abdullah T., Khosravi, Ardeshir, Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A., Kibret, Getiye D., Kidanemariam, Zelalem Teklemariam, Kiirithio, Daniel N., Kim, Daniel, Kim, Young-Eun, Kim, Yun Jin, Kimokoti, Ruth W., Kinfu, Yohannes, Kisa, Adnan, Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna, Kivimaki, Mika, Knudsen, Ann Kristin Skrindo, Kocarnik, Jonathan M., Kochhar, Sonali, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kolola, Tufa, Kopec, Jacek A., Koul, Parvaiz A., Koyanagi, Ai, Kravchenko, Michael A., Krishan, Kewal, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Bicer, Burcu Kinuk, Kumar, G. Anil, Kumar, Manasi, Kumar, Pushpendra, Kutz, Michael J., Kuzin, Igor, Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe, Lad, Deepesh P., Lad, Sheetal D., Lafranconi, Alessandra, Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lallukka, Tea, Lam, Jennifer O., Lami, Faris Hasan, Van Lansingh, C., Lansky, Sonia, Larson, Heidi J., Latifi, Amman, Lau, Kathryn Mei-Ming, Lazarus, Jeffrey V., Lebedev, Georgy, Lee, Paul H., Leigh, James, Leili, Mostafa, Leshargie, Cheru Tesema, Li, Shanshan, Li, Yichong, Liang, Juan, Lim, Lee-Ling, Lim, Stephen S., Limenih, Miteku Andualem, Linn, Shai, Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lodha, Rakesh, Lansdale, Chris, Lopez, Alan D., Lorkowski, Stefan, Lotufo, Paulo A., Lozano, Rafael, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Ma, Stefan, Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King, Mackay, Mark T., MacLachlan, Jennifer H., Maddison, Emilie R., Nadotto, Fabiana, Abd El Razek, Hassan Magdy, Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy, Maghavani, Dhaval P., Majdan, Marek, Majdzadeh, Reza, Majeed, Azeem, Malekzadeh, Reza, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Manda, Ana-Laura, Mandarano-Filho, Luiz Garcia, Manguerra, Helena, Mansournia, Mohammad Ali, Mapoma, Chabila Christopher, Marami, Dadi, Maravilla, Joemer C., Marcenes, Wagner, Marczak, Laurie, Marks, Ashley, Marks, Guy B., Martinez, Gabriel, Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlandio, Martopullo, Ira, Marz, Winfried, Marron, Melvin B., Masci, Joseph R., Lylassenburg, Benjamin Ballard, Mathur, Manu Raj, Mathur, Prashant, Matzopoulos, Richard, Maulik, Pallab K., Mazidi, Mohsen, McAlinden, Cohn, McGrath, John J., McKee, Martin, McMahon, Brian J., Mehata, Suiiesh, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mehrotra, Ravi, Mehta, Kala M., Mehta, Varshil, Mekonnen, Tefera C., Melese, Addisu, Melku, Mulugeta, Memiah, Peter T. N., Memish, Ziad A., Mendoza, Walter, Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese, Mengistu, Getnet, Mensah, George A., Mereta, Seid Tiku, Meretoja, Atte, Meretoja, Tuomo J., Meshovic, Tbmislav, Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane, Miazgowski, Bartosz, Miazgowski, Tomasz, Millear, Anoushka I., Miller, Ted R., Katherine, Molly, Petrie, Miller, Mini, G. K., Mirabi, Parvaneh, Mirarefin, Mojde, Mirica, Andreea, Mirrakhimov, Erkin M., Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen, Mitiku, Habtamu, Moazen, Babak, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mohammad, Moslem, Mohammadifard, Noushin, Mohammed, A. Mohammed, Mohammed, Shafiu, Mohan, Viswanathan, Mokdad, Ali H., Molokhia, Mariam, Monasta, Lorenzo, Moradi, Ghobad, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Moradinazar, Mehdi, Moraga, Paula, Morawska, Lidia, Velasquez, Ilais Moreno, Morgado-Da-Costa, Joana, Morrison, Shane Douglas, Moschos, Marilita M., Mouodi, Simin, Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam, Muchie, Kindie Eentahun, Mueller, Ulrich Otto, Mukhopadhyay, Satinath, Muller, Kate, Mumford, John Everett, Musa, Jonah, Musa, Kamand Imran, Mustafa, Ghulam, Muthupandian, Saravanan, Nachega, Jean B., Nagel, Gabriele, Naheed, Aliya, Nahvijou, Azin, Naik, Gunidatta, Nair, Sanjeev, Najafi, Farid, Naldi, Luigi, Nam, Hae Sung, Nangia, Vinay, Nansseu, Jobert Richie, Nascirnento, Bruno Ramos, Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan, Nearnati, Nahid, Negoi, Ionut, Negoi, Ruxcandra Irina, Nettpane, Subas, Newton, Charles R. J., Ngalesoni, Frida N., Ngunjiri, Josephine W., Anh Quynh Nguyen, Nguyen, Grant, Ha Thu Nguyen, Luong Thanh Nguyen, Long Hoang Nguyen, Nguyen, Minh, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Nichols, Emma, Ningnun, Dina Nur Anggraini, Nirayo, Yirga Legesse, Nixon, Molly R., Nolutshungu, Nomonde, Nomura, Shhhei, Norhelin, Ole F., Noroozi, Mehdi, Norrving, Bo, Noubiap, Jean Jacques, Nouri, Hamid Reza, Shiadeh, Malihe Nourollahpour, Nowroozi, Mohammad Reza, Nyasulu, Peter S., Odell, Christopher M., Ofori-Asenso, Richard, Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Oh, In-Hwan, Oladimeji, Olanrewaju, Olagunju, Andrew T., Olivares, Pedro R., Olsen, Helen Elizabeth, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Ong, Kanyin L., Ong, Sok King Sk, Oren, Eyal, Orpana, Heather M., Ortiz, Alberto, Ortiz, Justin R., Otstavnov, Stanislav S., Overland, Simon, Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo, Ozdemir, Raziye, Mahesh, P. A., Pacella, Rosana, Pakhale, Smita, Pakhare, Abhijit P., Pakpour, Amir H., Pana, Adrian, Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra, Pandian, Jeyaraj Durai, Parisi, Andrea, Park, Eun-Kee, Parry, Charles D. H., Parsian, Hadi, Patel, Shanti, Pati, Sanghamitra, Patton, George C., Paturi, Vishnupriya Rao, Paulson, Katherine R., Pereira, Alexandre, Pereira, David M., Perico, Norberto, Pesudovs, Konrad, Petzold, Max, Phillips, Michael R., Piel, Frederic B., Pigott, David M., Pillay, Julian David, Pirsaheb, Meghdad, Pishgar, Farhad, Polinder, Suzanne, Postma, Maarten J., Pourshams, Akram, Poustchi, Hossein, Pujar, Ashwini, Prakash, Swayam, Prasad, Narayan, Purcell, Caroline A., Qorbani, Mostafa, Quintana, Hedley, Quistberg, D. 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Subjects
Adult, Male, Adolescent, national age-sex-specific mortality, UNITED-STATES, Global Health, Socioeconomic Factor, Global Burden of Disease, GBD, causes of death, Young Adult, Age Distribution, Life Expectancy, General & Internal Medicine, Cause of Death, PUBLIC-HEALTH PROBLEM, mortality, 282 causes global burden of disease, Sex Distribution, Child, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, BARRIERS, DEMENTIA, Medicine (all), Infant, Newborn, Infant, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, Middle Aged, TRENDS, PREVENTION, PREVALENCE, ALZHEIMERS-DISEASE, INDIVIDUALS, 3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine, Child, Preschool, REGISTRATION, Female, Human medicine, Human
Abstract

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Published
2018

36. The global, regional, and national burden of cirrhosis by cause in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Safiri, Saeid, Bisignano, Catherine, Ikuta, Kevin S., Merat, Shahin, Saberifiroozi, Mehdi, Poustchi, Hossein, Tsoi, Derrick, Colombara, Danny V., Abdoli, Amir, Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji, Afarideh, Mohsen, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmad, Sohail, Ahmadian, Elham, Ahmadpour, Ehsan, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet, Alipour, Vahid, Almasi-Hashiani, Amir, Almulhim, Abdulaziz M., Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M., Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Angus, Colin, Anoushiravani, Amir, Arabloo, Jalal, Araya, Ephrem Mebrahtu, Asmelash, Daniel, Ataeinia, Bahar, Ataro, Zerihun, Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi, Ausloos, Floriane, Awasthi, Ashish, Badawi, Alaa, Banach, Maciej, Bejarano Ramirez, Diana Fernanda, Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhattacharyya, Krittika, Biondi, Antonio, Bolla, Srinivasa Rao, Boloor, Archith, Borzì, Antonio M., Butt, Zahid A., Cámera, Luis LA Alberto, Campos-Nonato, Ismael R., Carvalho, Félix, Chu, Dinh-Toi, Chung, Sheng-Chia, Cortesi, Paolo Angelo, Costa, Vera M., Cowie, Benjamin C, Daryani, Ahmad, de Courten, Barbora, Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam, Desai, Rupak, Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda, Djalalinia, Shirin, Do, Hoa Thi, Dorostkar, Fariba, Drake, Thomas M., Dubey, Manisha, Duncan, Bruce B., Effiong, Andem, Eftekhari, Aziz, Elsharkawy, Aisha, Etemadi, Arash, Farahmand, Mohammad, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fernandes, Eduarda, Filip, Irina, Fischer, Florian, Gebremedhin, Ketema Bizuwork Bizuwork, Geta, Birhanu, Gilani, Syed Amir, Gill, Paramjit, Gutirrez, Reyna Alma, Haile, Michael Tamene, Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin, Hamid, Saeed S., Hasankhani, Milad, Hasanzadeh, Amir, Hashemian, Maryam, Hassen, Hamid Yimam, Hay, Simon I., Hayat, Khezar, Heidari, Behnam, Henok, Andualem, Hoang, Chi Linh, Hostiuc, Mihaela, Hostiuc, Sorin, Hsieh, Vivian Chia-rong, Igumbor, Ehimario U., Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen, Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi, Jafari Balalami, Nader, James, Spencer L., Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jha, Ravi Prakash, Jonas, Jost B., Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy, Kabir, Ali, Kasaeian, Amir, Kassaye, Hagazi Gebremedhin, Kefale, Adane Teshome, Khalilov, Rovshan, Khan, Muhammad Ali, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khater, Amir, Kim, Yun Jin, Koyanagi, Ai, La Vecchia, Carlo, Lim, Lee-Ling, Lopez, Alan D., Lorkowski, Stefan, Lotufo, Paulo A., Lozano, Rafael, Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed, Mai, Hue Thi, Manafi, Navid, Manafi, Amir, Mansournia, Mohammad Ali, Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni, Mazzaglia, Giampiero, Mehta, Dhruv, Mendoza, Walter, Menezes, Ritesh G., Mengesha, Melkamu Merid, Meretoja, Tuomo J., Mestrovic, Tomislav, Miazgowski, Bartosz, Miller, Ted R., Mirrakhimov, Erkin M., Mithra, Prasanna, Moazen, Babak, Moghadaszadeh, Masoud, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah, Mohammed, Shafiu, Mokdad, Ali H., Montero-Zamora, Pablo A., Moradi, Ghobad, Naimzada, Mukhammad David, Nayak, Vinod, Negoi, Ionut, Nguyen, Trang Huyen, Ofori-Asenso, Richard, Oh, In-Hwan, Olagunju, Tinuke O., Padubidri, Jagadish Rao, Pakshir, Keyvan, Pana, Adrian, Pathak, Mona, Pourshams, Akram, Rabiee, Navid, Radfar, Amir, Rafiei, Alireza, Ramezanzadeh, Kiana, Rana, Saleem Muhammad M., Rawaf, Salman, Rawaf, David Laith, Reiner, Robert C., Roever, Leonardo, Room, Robin, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Safari, Saeed, Samy, Abdallah M., Sanabria, Juan, Sartorius, Benn, Schmidt, Maria Inês, Senthilkumaran, Subramanian, Shaikh, Masood Ali, Sharif, Mehdi, Sharifi, Amrollah, Shigematsu, Mika, Singh, Jasvinder A., Soheili, Amin, Suleria, Hafiz Ansar Rasul, Teklehaimanot, Berhane Fseha, Tesfay, Berhe Etsay, Vacante, Marco, Vahedian-Azimi, Amir, Valdez, Pascual R., Vasankari, Tommi Juhani, Vu, Giang Thu, Waheed, Yasir, Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey, Werdecker, Andrea, Westerman, Ronny, Wondafrash, Dawit Zewdu, Wondmieneh, Adam Belay, Yeshitila, Yordanos Gizachew, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yu, Chuanhua, Zaidi, Zoubida, Zarghi, Afshin, Zelber-Sagi, Shira, Zewdie, Kaleab Alemayehu, Zhang, Zhi-Jiang, Zhao, Xiu-Ju, Naghavi, Mohsen, Malekzadeh, Reza, HASH(0x5651c9b09eb8), Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Clinicum, University of Helsinki, Sepanlou, S, Safiri, S, Bisignano, C, Ikuta, K, Merat, S, Saberifiroozi, M, Poustchi, H, Tsoi, D, Colombara, D, Abdoli, A, Adedoyin, R, Afarideh, M, Agrawal, S, Ahmad, S, Ahmadian, E, Ahmadpour, E, Akinyemiju, T, Akunna, C, Alipour, V, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Almulhim, A, Al-Raddadi, R, Alvis-Guzman, N, Anber, N, Angus, C, Anoushiravani, A, Arabloo, J, Araya, E, Asmelash, D, Ataeinia, B, Ataro, Z, Atout, M, Ausloos, F, Awasthi, A, Badawi, A, Banach, M, Bejarano Ramirez, D, Bhagavathula, A, Bhala, N, Bhattacharyya, K, Biondi, A, Bolla, S, Boloor, A, Borzì, A, Butt, Z, Cámera, L, Campos-Nonato, I, Carvalho, F, Chu, D, Chung, S, Cortesi, P, Costa, V, Cowie, B, Daryani, A, de Courten, B, Demoz, G, Desai, R, Dharmaratne, S, Djalalinia, S, Do, H, Dorostkar, F, Drake, T, Dubey, M, Duncan, B, Effiong, A, Eftekhari, A, Elsharkawy, A, Etemadi, A, Farahmand, M, Farzadfar, F, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Gebremedhin, K, Geta, B, Gilani, S, Gill, P, Gutirrez, R, Haile, M, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamid, S, Hasankhani, M, Hasanzadeh, A, Hashemian, M, Hassen, H, Hay, S, Hayat, K, Heidari, B, Henok, A, Hoang, C, Hostiuc, M, Hostiuc, S, Hsieh, V, Igumbor, E, Ilesanmi, O, Irvani, S, Jafari Balalami, N, James, S, Jeemon, P, Jha, R, Jonas, J, Jozwiak, J, Kabir, A, Kasaeian, A, Kassaye, H, Kefale, A, Khalilov, R, Khan, M, Khan, E, Khater, A, Kim, Y, Koyanagi, A, La Vecchia, C, Lim, L, Lopez, A, Lorkowski, S, Lotufo, P, Lozano, R, Magdy Abd El Razek, M, Mai, H, Manafi, N, Manafi, A, Mansournia, M, Mantovani, L, Mazzaglia, G, Mehta, D, Mendoza, W, Menezes, R, Mengesha, M, Meretoja, T, Mestrovic, T, Miazgowski, B, Miller, T, Mirrakhimov, E, Mithra, P, Moazen, B, Moghadaszadeh, M, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, A, Montero-Zamora, P, Moradi, G, Naimzada, M, Nayak, V, Negoi, I, Nguyen, T, Ofori-Asenso, R, Oh, I, Olagunju, T, Padubidri, J, Pakshir, K, Pana, A, Pathak, M, Pourshams, A, Rabiee, N, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Ramezanzadeh, K, Rana, S, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, D, Reiner RC, J, Roever, L, Room, R, Roshandel, G, Safari, S, Samy, A, Sanabria, J, Sartorius, B, Schmidt, M, Senthilkumaran, S, Shaikh, M, Sharif, M, Sharifi, A, Shigematsu, M, Singh, J, Soheili, A, Suleria, H, Teklehaimanot, B, Tesfay, B, Vacante, M, Vahedian-Azimi, A, Valdez, P, Vasankari, T, Vu, G, Waheed, Y, Weldegwergs, K, Werdecker, A, Westerman, R, Wondafrash, D, Wondmieneh, A, Yeshitila, Y, Yonemoto, N, Yu, C, Zaidi, Z, Zarghi, A, Zelber-Sagi, S, Zewdie, K, Zhang, Z, Zhao, X, Naghavi, M, and Malekzadeh, R

Subjects
Liver Cirrhosis, Male, Cirrhosis, Cost-Benefit Analysis, HEPATITIS-B, Global Burden of Disease, Liver disease, Disability Evaluation, 0302 clinical medicine, Burden, Global, Mortality, Cirrhosis, Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease, Risk Factors, FIBROSIS, Europe, Eastern, POPULATION, Aged, 80 and over, education.field_of_study, Singapore, Mortality rate, 1. No poverty, Gastroenterology, Hepatitis C, Hepatitis B, Middle Aged, 3. Good health, PREVALENCE, 030220 oncology & carcinogenesis, Asia, Central, 030211 gastroenterology & hepatology, Egypt, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Viral hepatitis, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Adult, EUROPE, Population, GBD 2017 Cirrhosis Collaborators, Article, 03 medical and health sciences, LIVER-DISEASE, medicine, Humans, education, Liver Diseases, Alcoholic, Africa South of the Sahara, Aged, Science & Technology, Hepatology, Gastroenterology & Hepatology, business.industry, MORTALITY, DISABILITY, DECOMPENSATION, medicine.disease, Years of potential life lost, Early Diagnosis, Socioeconomic Factors, 3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine, INJURIES, Human medicine, business, Demography, RC
Abstract

Background\ud \ud Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (collectively referred to as cirrhosis in this paper) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, although the burden and underlying causes differ across locations and demographic groups. We report on results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 on the burden of cirrhosis and its trends since 1990, by cause, sex, and age, for 195 countries and territories.\ud \ud \ud \ud Methods\ud \ud We used data from vital registrations, vital registration samples, and verbal autopsies to estimate mortality. We modelled prevalence of total, compensated, and decompensated cirrhosis on the basis of hospital and claims data. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. Estimates are presented as numbers and age-standardised or age-specific rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). All estimates are presented for five causes of cirrhosis: hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol-related liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and other causes. We compared mortality, prevalence, and DALY estimates with those expected according to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a proxy for the development status of regions and countries.\ud \ud \ud \ud Findings\ud \ud In 2017, cirrhosis caused more than 1·32 million (95% UI 1·27–1·45) deaths (440 000 [416 000–518 000; 33·3%] in females and 883 000 [838 000–967 000; 66·7%] in males) globally, compared with less than 899 000 (829 000–948 000) deaths in 1990. Deaths due to cirrhosis constituted 2·4% (2·3–2·6) of total deaths globally in 2017 compared with 1·9% (1·8–2·0) in 1990. Despite an increase in the number of deaths, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 21·0 (19·2–22·3) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 16·5 (15·8–18·1) per 100 000 population in 2017. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised death rate among GBD super-regions for all years of the study period (32·2 [25·8–38·6] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017), and the high-income super-region had the lowest (10·1 [9·8–10·5] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017). The age-standardised death rate decreased or remained constant from 1990 to 2017 in all GBD regions except eastern Europe and central Asia, where the age-standardised death rate increased, primarily due to increases in alcohol-related liver disease prevalence. At the national level, the age-standardised death rate of cirrhosis was lowest in Singapore in 2017 (3·7 [3·3–4·0] per 100 000 in 2017) and highest in Egypt in all years since 1990 (103·3 [64·4–133·4] per 100 000 in 2017). There were 10·6 million (10·3–10·9) prevalent cases of decompensated cirrhosis and 112 million (107–119) prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis globally in 2017. There was a significant increase in age-standardised prevalence rate of decompensated cirrhosis between 1990 and 2017. Cirrhosis caused by NASH had a steady age-standardised death rate throughout the study period, whereas the other four causes showed declines in age-standardised death rate. The age-standardised prevalence of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH increased more than for any other cause of cirrhosis (by 33·2% for compensated cirrhosis and 54·8% for decompensated cirrhosis) over the study period. From 1990 to 2017, the number of prevalent cases more than doubled for compensated cirrhosis due to NASH and more than tripled for decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH. In 2017, age-standardised death and DALY rates were lower among countries and territories with higher SDI.\ud \ud \ud \ud Interpretation\ud \ud Cirrhosis imposes a substantial health burden on many countries and this burden has increased at the global level since 1990, partly due to population growth and ageing. Although the age-standardised death and DALY rates of cirrhosis decreased from 1990 to 2017, numbers of deaths and DALYs and the proportion of all global deaths due to cirrhosis increased. Despite the availability of effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis B and C, they were still the main causes of cirrhosis burden worldwide, particularly in low-income countries. The impact of hepatitis B and C is expected to be attenuated and overtaken by that of NASH in the near future. Cost-effective interventions are required to continue the prevention and treatment of viral hepatitis, and to achieve early diagnosis and prevention of cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease and NASH.\ud \ud \ud \ud Funding\ud \ud Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2020

37. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Vos, Theo, Lim, Stephen S, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M, Abbasi, Mohammad, Abbasifard, Mitra, Abbasi-kangevari, Mohsen, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-allah, Foad, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahi, Mohammad, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abolhassani, Hassan, Aboyans, Victor, Abrams, Elissa M, Abreu, Lucas Guimarães, Abrigo, Michael R M, Abu-raddad, Laith Jamal, Abushouk, Abdelrahman I, Acebedo, Alyssa, Ackerman, Ilana N, Adabi, Maryam, Adamu, Abdu A, Adebayo, Oladimeji M, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adelson, Jaimie D, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O, Adham, Davoud, Afshari, Mahdi, Afshin, Ashkan, Agardh, Emilie E, Agarwal, Gina, Agesa, Kareha M, Aghaali, Mohammad, Aghamir, Seyed Mohammad Kazem, Agrawal, Anurag, Ahmad, Tauseef, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmadpour, Ehsan, Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Akombi, Blessing, Al-aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Noore, Alam, Samiah, Alam, Tahiya, Alanzi, Turki M, Albertson, Samuel B, Alcalde-rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth, Alema, Niguse Meles, Ali, Muhammad, Ali, Saqib, Alicandro, Gianfranco, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alinia, Cyrus, Alipour, Vahid, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Almasi-hashiani, Amir, Alonso, Jordi, Al-raddadi, Rajaa M, Altirkawi, Khalid A, Alvis-guzman, Nelson, Alvis-zakzuk, Nelson J, Amini, Saeed, Amini-rarani, Mostafa, Aminorroaya, Arya, Amiri, Fatemeh, Amit, Arianna Maever L, Amugsi, Dickson A, Amul, Gianna Gayle Herrera, Anderlini, Deanna, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Andrei, Tudorel, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansari, Fereshteh, Ansari, Iman, Ansari-moghaddam, Alireza, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Antony, Catherine M, Antriyandarti, Ernoiz, Anvari, Davood, Anwer, Razique, Arabloo, Jalal, Arab-zozani, Morteza, Aravkin, Aleksandr Y, Ariani, Filippo, Ärnlöv, Johan, Aryal, Krishna K, Arzani, Afsaneh, Asadi-aliabadi, Mehran, Asadi-pooya, Ali A, Asghari, Babak, Ashbaugh, Charlie, Atnafu, Desta Debalkie, Atre, Sachin R, Ausloos, Floriane, Ausloos, Marcel, Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina, Ayano, Getinet, Ayanore, Martin Amogre, Aynalem, Yared Asmare, Azari, Samad, Azarian, Ghasem, Azene, Zelalem Nigussie, Babaee, Ebrahim, Badawi, Alaa, Bagherzadeh, Mojtaba, Bakhshaei, Mohammad Hossein, Bakhtiari, Ahad, Balakrishnan, Senthilkumar, Balalla, Shivanthi, Balassyano, Shelly, Banach, Maciej, Banik, Palash Chandra, Bannick, Marlena S, Bante, Agegnehu Bante, Baraki, Adhanom Gebreegziabher, Barboza, Miguel A, Barker-collo, Suzanne Lyn, Barthelemy, Celine M, Barua, Lingkan, Barzegar, Akbar, Basu, Sanjay, Baune, Bernhard T, Bayati, Mohsen, Bazmandegan, Gholamreza, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Béjot, Yannick, Bello, Aminu K, Bender, Rose G, Bennett, Derrick A, Bennitt, Fiona B, Bensenor, Isabela M, Benziger, Catherine P, Berhe, Kidanemaryam, Bernabe, Eduardo, Bertolacci, Gregory J, Bhageerathy, Reshmi, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhandari, Dinesh, Bhardwaj, Pankaj, Bhattacharyya, Krittika, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Bibi, Sadia, Biehl, Molly H, Bikbov, Boris, Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat, Biondi, Antonio, Birihane, Binyam Minuye, Bisanzio, Donal, Bisignano, Catherine, Biswas, Raaj Kishore, Bohlouli, Somayeh, Bohluli, Mehdi, Bolla, Srinivasa Rao Rao, Boloor, Archith, Boon-dooley, Alexandra S, Borges, Guilherme, Borzì, Antonio Maria, Bourne, Rupert, Brady, Oliver J, Brauer, Michael, Brayne, Carol, Breitborde, Nicholas J K, Brenner, Hermann, Briant, Paul Svitil, Briggs, Andrew M, Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich, Britton, Gabrielle B, Bryazka, Dana, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Bumgarner, Blair R, Busse, Reinhard, Butt, Zahid A, Caetano Dos Santos, Florentino Luciano, Cámera, Luis La Alberto, Campos-nonato, Ismael R, Car, Josip, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carreras, Giulia, Carrero, Juan J, Carvalho, Felix, Castaldelli-maia, Joao Mauricio, Castañeda-orjuela, Carlos A, Castelpietra, Giulio, Castle, Chris D, Castro, Franz, Catalá-lópez, Ferrán, Causey, Kate, Cederroth, Christopher R, Cercy, Kelly M, Cerin, Ester, Chandan, Joht Singh, Chang, Alex R, Charlson, Fiona J, Chattu, Vijay Kumar, Chaturvedi, Sarika, Chimed-ochir, Odgerel, Chin, Ken Lee, Cho, Daniel Youngwhan, Christensen, Hanne, Chu, Dinh-toi, Chung, Michael T, Cicuttini, Flavia M, Ciobanu, Liliana G, Cirillo, Massimo, Collins, Emma L, Compton, Kelly, Conti, Sara, Cortesi, Paolo Angelo, Costa, Vera Marisa, Cousin, Ewerton, Cowden, Richard G, Cowie, Benjamin C, Cromwell, Elizabeth A, Cross, Di H, Crowe, Christopher Stephen, Cruz, Jessica A, Cunningham, Matthew, Dahlawi, Saad M A, Damiani, Giovanni, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Darwesh, Aso Mohammad, Daryani, Ahmad, Das, Jai K, Das Gupta, Rajat, Das Neves, José, Dávila-cervantes, Claudio Alberto, Do, Hoa Thi, Guo, Yuming, Johnson, Catherine Owens, Leung, Janni, Li, Shanshan, Lim, Lee-ling, Morawska, Lidia, Nguyen, Cuong Tat, Nguyen, Minh, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Renzaho, Andre M N, Tonelli, Marcello, Wang, Yuan-pang, Murray, Christopher J L, other, and, Vos, Theo, Lim, Stephen S, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M, Abbasi, Mohammad, Abbasifard, Mitra, Abbasi-kangevari, Mohsen, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-allah, Foad, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahi, Mohammad, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abolhassani, Hassan, Aboyans, Victor, Abrams, Elissa M, Abreu, Lucas Guimarães, Abrigo, Michael R M, Abu-raddad, Laith Jamal, Abushouk, Abdelrahman I, Acebedo, Alyssa, Ackerman, Ilana N, Adabi, Maryam, Adamu, Abdu A, Adebayo, Oladimeji M, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adelson, Jaimie D, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O, Adham, Davoud, Afshari, Mahdi, Afshin, Ashkan, Agardh, Emilie E, Agarwal, Gina, Agesa, Kareha M, Aghaali, Mohammad, Aghamir, Seyed Mohammad Kazem, Agrawal, Anurag, Ahmad, Tauseef, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmadpour, Ehsan, Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Akombi, Blessing, Al-aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Noore, Alam, Samiah, Alam, Tahiya, Alanzi, Turki M, Albertson, Samuel B, Alcalde-rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth, Alema, Niguse Meles, Ali, Muhammad, Ali, Saqib, Alicandro, Gianfranco, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alinia, Cyrus, Alipour, Vahid, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Almasi-hashiani, Amir, Alonso, Jordi, Al-raddadi, Rajaa M, Altirkawi, Khalid A, Alvis-guzman, Nelson, Alvis-zakzuk, Nelson J, Amini, Saeed, Amini-rarani, Mostafa, Aminorroaya, Arya, Amiri, Fatemeh, Amit, Arianna Maever L, Amugsi, Dickson A, Amul, Gianna Gayle Herrera, Anderlini, Deanna, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Andrei, Tudorel, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansari, Fereshteh, Ansari, Iman, Ansari-moghaddam, Alireza, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Antony, Catherine M, Antriyandarti, Ernoiz, Anvari, Davood, Anwer, Razique, Arabloo, Jalal, Arab-zozani, Morteza, Aravkin, Aleksandr Y, Ariani, Filippo, Ärnlöv, Johan, Aryal, Krishna K, Arzani, Afsaneh, Asadi-aliabadi, Mehran, Asadi-pooya, Ali A, Asghari, Babak, Ashbaugh, Charlie, Atnafu, Desta Debalkie, Atre, Sachin R, Ausloos, Floriane, Ausloos, Marcel, Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina, Ayano, Getinet, Ayanore, Martin Amogre, Aynalem, Yared Asmare, Azari, Samad, Azarian, Ghasem, Azene, Zelalem Nigussie, Babaee, Ebrahim, Badawi, Alaa, Bagherzadeh, Mojtaba, Bakhshaei, Mohammad Hossein, Bakhtiari, Ahad, Balakrishnan, Senthilkumar, Balalla, Shivanthi, Balassyano, Shelly, Banach, Maciej, Banik, Palash Chandra, Bannick, Marlena S, Bante, Agegnehu Bante, Baraki, Adhanom Gebreegziabher, Barboza, Miguel A, Barker-collo, Suzanne Lyn, Barthelemy, Celine M, Barua, Lingkan, Barzegar, Akbar, Basu, Sanjay, Baune, Bernhard T, Bayati, Mohsen, Bazmandegan, Gholamreza, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Béjot, Yannick, Bello, Aminu K, Bender, Rose G, Bennett, Derrick A, Bennitt, Fiona B, Bensenor, Isabela M, Benziger, Catherine P, Berhe, Kidanemaryam, Bernabe, Eduardo, Bertolacci, Gregory J, Bhageerathy, Reshmi, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhandari, Dinesh, Bhardwaj, Pankaj, Bhattacharyya, Krittika, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Bibi, Sadia, Biehl, Molly H, Bikbov, Boris, Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat, Biondi, Antonio, Birihane, Binyam Minuye, Bisanzio, Donal, Bisignano, Catherine, Biswas, Raaj Kishore, Bohlouli, Somayeh, Bohluli, Mehdi, Bolla, Srinivasa Rao Rao, Boloor, Archith, Boon-dooley, Alexandra S, Borges, Guilherme, Borzì, Antonio Maria, Bourne, Rupert, Brady, Oliver J, Brauer, Michael, Brayne, Carol, Breitborde, Nicholas J K, Brenner, Hermann, Briant, Paul Svitil, Briggs, Andrew M, Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich, Britton, Gabrielle B, Bryazka, Dana, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Bumgarner, Blair R, Busse, Reinhard, Butt, Zahid A, Caetano Dos Santos, Florentino Luciano, Cámera, Luis La Alberto, Campos-nonato, Ismael R, Car, Josip, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carreras, Giulia, Carrero, Juan J, Carvalho, Felix, Castaldelli-maia, Joao Mauricio, Castañeda-orjuela, Carlos A, Castelpietra, Giulio, Castle, Chris D, Castro, Franz, Catalá-lópez, Ferrán, Causey, Kate, Cederroth, Christopher R, Cercy, Kelly M, Cerin, Ester, Chandan, Joht Singh, Chang, Alex R, Charlson, Fiona J, Chattu, Vijay Kumar, Chaturvedi, Sarika, Chimed-ochir, Odgerel, Chin, Ken Lee, Cho, Daniel Youngwhan, Christensen, Hanne, Chu, Dinh-toi, Chung, Michael T, Cicuttini, Flavia M, Ciobanu, Liliana G, Cirillo, Massimo, Collins, Emma L, Compton, Kelly, Conti, Sara, Cortesi, Paolo Angelo, Costa, Vera Marisa, Cousin, Ewerton, Cowden, Richard G, Cowie, Benjamin C, Cromwell, Elizabeth A, Cross, Di H, Crowe, Christopher Stephen, Cruz, Jessica A, Cunningham, Matthew, Dahlawi, Saad M A, Damiani, Giovanni, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Darwesh, Aso Mohammad, Daryani, Ahmad, Das, Jai K, Das Gupta, Rajat, Das Neves, José, Dávila-cervantes, Claudio Alberto, Do, Hoa Thi, Guo, Yuming, Johnson, Catherine Owens, Leung, Janni, Li, Shanshan, Lim, Lee-ling, Morawska, Lidia, Nguyen, Cuong Tat, Nguyen, Minh, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Renzaho, Andre M N, Tonelli, Marcello, Wang, Yuan-pang, Murray, Christopher J L, and other, and

Abstract

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw va

Published
2020

38. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M., Abbasi, Mohammad, Abbasifard, Mitra, Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahi, Mohammad, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abedi, Aidin, Abedi, Parisa, Abegaz, Kedir Hussein, Abolhassani, Hassan, Abosetugn, Akine Eshete, Aboyans, Victor, Abrams, Elissa M., Abreu, Lucas Guimaraes, Abrigo, Michael R. M., Abu Haimed, Abdulaziz Khalid, Abualhasan, Ahmed, Abu-Gharbieh, Eman, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Abushouk, Abdelrahman I., Acebedo, Alyssa, Ackerman, Ilana N., Adabi, Maryam, Adair, Tim, Adamu, Abdu A., Adebayo, Oladimeji M., Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adelson, Jaimie D., Adeoye, Abiodun Moshood, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O., Adham, Davoud, Advani, Shailesh M., Afarideh, Mohsen, Afshari, Mahdi, Afshin, Ashkan, Agardh, Emilie E., Agarwal, Gina, Agasthi, Pradyumna, Agesa, Kareha M., Aghaali, Mohammad, Aghamir, Seyed Mohammad Kazem, Agrawal, Anurag, Ahmad, Tauseef, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Keivan, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmadpour, Ehsan, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aji, Budi, Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Akombi, Blessing, Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet, Alahdab, Fares, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Noore, Alam, Samiah, Alam, Tahiya, Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour, Alanzi, Turki M., Albertson, Samuel B., Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth, Alema, Niguse Meles, Alemu, Biresaw Wassihun, Alemu, Yihun Mulugeta, Alhabib, Khalid F., Alhassan, Robert Kaba, Ali, Muhammad, Ali, Saqib, Alicandro, Gianfranco, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alinia, Cyrus, Alipour, Vahid, Alizade, Hesam, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alla, Francois, Allebeck, Peter, Almadi, Majid Abdulrahman Hamad, Almasi, Ali, Almasi-Hashiani, Amir, Almasri, Nihad A., Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M., Almulhim, Abdulaziz M., Alonso, Jordi, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M., Altirkawi, Khalid A., Alumran, Arwa Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J., Amare, Azmeraw T., Amare, Bekalu, Amini, Saeed, Amini-Rarani, Mostafa, Aminorroaya, Arya, Amiri, Fatemeh, Amit, Arianna Maever L., Amugsi, Dickson A., Amul, Gianna Gayle Herrera, Anbesu, Etsay Woldu, Ancuceanu, Robert, Anderlini, Deanna, Anderson, Jason A., Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Andrei, Tudorel, Androudi, Sofia, Angus, Colin, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansari, Fereshteh, Ansari, Iman, Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza, Antonazzo, Ippazio Cosimo, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Antony, Catherine M., Antriyandarti, Ernoiz, Anvari, Davood, Anwer, Razique, Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw, Arabloo, Jalal, Arab-Zozani, Morteza, Aravkin, Aleksandr Y., Arba, Aseb Arba Kinfe, Aremu, Olatunde, Ariani, Filippo, Aripov, Timur, Armoon, Bahram, Arnlov, Johan, Arowosegbe, Oluwaseyi Olalekan, Aryal, Krishna K., Arzani, Afsaneh, Asaad, Malke, Asadi-Aliabadi, Mehran, Asadi-Pooya, Ali A., Asgari, Samaneh, Asghari, Babak, Jafarabadi, Mohammad Asghari, Ashbaugh, Charlie, Assmus, Michael, Atafar, Zahra, Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin, Atnafu, Desta Debalkie, Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi, Atre, Sachin R., Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan, Ausloos, Floriane, Ausloos, Marcel, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel Gbenato Arthur, Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, Ayano, Getinet, Ayanore, Martin Amogre, Aynalem, Getie Lake, Aynalem, Yared Asmare, Ayza, Muluken Altaye, Azari, Samad, Azarian, Ghasem, Azene, Zelalem Nigussie, Azhar, Gulrez, Azzopardi, Peter S., Darshan, B. B., Babaee, Ebrahim, Badawi, Alaa, Badiye, Ashish D., Bagherzadeh, Mojtaba, Bagli, Eleni, Bahrami, Mohammad Amin, Baig, Atif Amin, Bairwa, Mohan, Bakhshaei, Mohammad Hossein, Bakhtiari, Ahad, Bakkannavar, Shankar M., Balachandran, Arun, Balakrishnan, Senthilkumar, Balalla, Shivanthi, Balassyano, Shelly, Baldasseroni, Alberto, Ball, Kylie, Ballew, Shoshana H., Balzi, Daniela, Banach, Maciej, Banerjee, Srikanta K., Banik, Palash Chandra, Bannick, Marlena S., Bante, Agegnehu Bante, Bante, Simachew Animen, Baraki, Adhanom Gebreegziabher, Barboza, Miguel A., Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn, Barnighausen, Till Winfried, Barrero, Lope H., Barthelemy, Celine M., Barua, Lingkan, Barzegar, Akbar, Basaleem, Huda, Bassat, Quique, Basu, Sanjay, Baune, Bernhard T., Bayati, Mohsen, Baye, Bayisa Abdissa, Bazmandegan, Gholamreza, Becker, Jacob S., Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Behzadifar, Masoud, Bejot, Yannick, Bekuma, Tariku Tesfaye Tesfaye, Bell, Michelle L., Bello, Aminu K., Bender, Rose G., Bennett, Derrick A., Bennitt, Fiona B., Bensenor, Isabela M., Benziger, Catherine P., Berhe, Kidanemaryam, Berman, Adam E., Bernabe, Eduardo, Bernstein, Robert S., Bertolacci, Gregory J., Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth, Bhageerathy, Reshmi, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhandari, Dinesh, Bhardwaj, Pankaj, Bhat, Anusha Ganapati, Bhattacharyya, Krittika, Bhattarai, Suraj, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Bibi, Sadia, Biehl, Molly H., Bijani, Ali, Bikbov, Boris, Bilano, Ver, Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat, Biondi, Antonio, Birihane, Binyam Minuye, Bisanzio, Donal, Bisignano, Catherine, Biswas, Raaj Kishore, Bitew, Helen, Bjorge, Tone, Bockarie, Moses John, Bohlouli, Somayeh, Bohluli, Mehdi, Bojia, Hunduma Amensisa, Bolla, Srinivasa Rao, Boloor, Archith, Boon-Dooley, Alexandra S., Borges, Guilherme, Borzi, Antonio Maria, Borzouei, Shiva, Bose, Dipan, Bosetti, Cristina, Boufous, Soufiane, Bourne, Rupert, Brady, Oliver J., Braithwaite, Dejana, Brauer, Michael, Brayne, Carol, Breitborde, Nicholas J. K., Breitner, Susanne, Brenner, Hermann, Breusov, Alexey V., Briant, Paul Svitil, Briggs, Andrew M., Briko, Andrey Nikolaevich, Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich, Britton, Gabrielle B., Brugha, Traolach, Bryazka, Dana, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Bumgarner, Blair R., Burkart, Katrin, Burnett, Richard Thomas, Nagaraja, Sharath Burugina, Busse, Reinhard, Butt, Zahid A., Caetano dos Santos, Florentino Luciano, Cahill, Leah E., Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero, Cai, Tianji, Callender, Charlton S. K. H., Camera, Luis Alberto, Campos-Nonato, Ismael R., Rincon, Julio Cesar Campuzano, Cao, Jackie, Car, Josip, Cardenas, Rosario, Carreras, Giulia, Carrero, Juan J., Carvalho, Felix, Castaldelli-Maia, Joao Mauricio, Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Castelpietra, Giulio, Castle, Chris D., Castro, Emma, Castro, Franz, Catala-Lopez, Ferran, Causey, Kate, Cederroth, Christopher R., Cercy, Kelly M., Cerin, Ester, Chalek, Julian, Chandan, Joht Singh, Chang, Alex R., Chang, Angela Y., Chang, Jung-Chen, Chang, Kai-Lan, Charan, Jaykaran, Charlson, Fiona J., Chattu, Vijay Kumar, Chaturvedi, Sarika, Cherbuin, Nicolas, Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Chin, Ken Lee, Chirinos-Caceres, Jesus Lorenzo, Cho, Daniel Youngwhan, Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine, Christensen, Hanne, Chu, Dinh-Toi, Chung, Michael T., Chung, Sheng-Chia, Cicuttini, Flavia M., Ciobanu, Liliana G., Cirillo, Massimo, Cislaghi, Beniamino, Classen, Thomas Khaled Dwayne, Cohen, Aaron J., Collins, Emma L., Comfort, Haley, Compton, Kelly, Conti, Sara, Cooper, Owen R., Corso, Barbara, Cortesi, Paolo Angelo, Costa, Vera Marisa, Cousin, Ewerton, Cowden, Richard G., Cowie, Benjamin C., Cromwell, Elizabeth A., Croneberger, Andrew J., Cross, Di H., Cross, Marita, Crowe, Christopher Stephen, Cruz, Jessica A., Cummins, Steven, Cunningham, Matthew, Dahlawi, Saad M. A., Dai, Haijiang, Dai, Hancheng, Damasceno, Albertino Antonio Moura, Damiani, Giovanni, D'Amico, Emanuele, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Daneshpajouhnejad, Parnaz, Dangel, William James, Danielsson, Anna-Karin, Gela, Jiregna Darega, Dargan, Paul I., Darwesh, Aso Mohammad, Daryani, Ahmad, Das, Jai K., Das Gupta, Rajat, Das Neves, Jose, Dash, Aditya Prasad, Davey, Gail, Davila-Cervantes, Claudio Alberto, Davis, Adrian C., Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil, Davletov, Kairat, De Leo, Diego, De Neve, Jan-Walter, Dean, Frances E., DeCleene, Nicole K., Deen, Amanda, Degenhardt, Louisa, DeLang, Marissa, Dellavalle, Robert Paul, Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen, Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam, Demsie, Desalegn Getnet, Denova-Gutierrez, Edgar, Dereje, Nebiyu Dereje, Deribe, Kebede, Dervenis, Nikolaos, Desai, Rupak, Desalew, Assefa, Dessie, Getenet Ayalew, Deuba, Keshab, Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda, Dhungana, Govinda Prasad, Dianatinasab, Mostafa, da Silva, Diana Dias, Diaz, Daniel, Forooshani, Zahra Sadat Dibaji, Dichgans, Martin, Didarloo, Alireza, Dingels, Zachary V., Dippenaar, Ilse N., Dirac, M. Ashworth, Djalalinia, Shirin, Do, Hoa Thi, Dokova, Klara, Doku, David Teye, Dolecek, Christiane, Dolgert, Andrew J., Dorostkar, Fariba, Doshi, Chirag P., Doshi, Pratik P., Doshmangir, Leila, Douiri, Abdel, Doxey, Matthew C., Doyle, Kerrie E., Driscoll, Tim Robert, Dubljanin, Eleonora, Dunachie, Susanna J., Duncan, Bruce B., Duraes, Andre Rodrigues, Eagan, Arielle Wilder, Ebrahimi, Hedyeh, Kalan, Mohammad Ebrahimi, Edvardsson, David, Effiong, Andem, Ehrlich, Joshua R., El Nahas, Nevine, El Sayed, Iman, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, El Tantawi, Maha, Elbarazi, Iffat, Elgendy, Islam Y., Elhabashy, Hala Rashad, El-Jaafary, Shaimaa I., Elsharkawy, Aisha, Elyazar, Iqbal R. F., Emamian, Mohammad Hassan, Emmons-Bell, Sophia, Erskine, Holly E., Eshrati, Babak, Eskandari, Khalil, Eskandarieh, Sharareh, Esmaeilnejad, Saman, Esmaeilzadeh, Firooz, Esteghamati, Alireza, Esteghamati, Sadaf, Estep, Kara, Etemadi, Arash, Etisso, Atkilt Esaiyas, Ezekannagha, Oluchi, Fanzo, Jessica, Farag, Tamer, Farahmand, Mohammad, Faraj, Anwar, Faraon, Emerito Jose A., Fareed, Mohammad, Faridnia, Roghiyeh, Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sa, Farioli, Andrea, Faris, Pawan Sirwan, Faro, Andre, Faruque, Mithila, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fattahi, Nazir, Fazaeli, Ali Akbar, Fazlzadeh, Mehdi, Feigin, Valery L., Feldman, Rachel, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Eduarda, Ferrara, Giannina, Ferrara, Pietro, Ferrari, Alize J., Ferreira, Manuela L., Feyissa, Garumma Tolu, Filip, Irina, Fischer, Florian, Fisher, James L., Fitzgerald, Ryan, Flohr, Carsten, Flor, Luisa Sorio, Foigt, Nataliya A., Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin, Fomenkov, Artem Alekseevich, Force, Lisa M., Fornari, Carla, Foroutan, Masoud, Fox, Jack T., Francis, Joel Msafiri, Frank, Tahvi D., Franklin, Richard Charles, Freitas, Marisa, Fu, Weijia, Fukumoto, Takeshi, Fukutaki, Kai, Fuller, John E., Fullman, Nancy, Furtado, Joao M., Gad, Mohamed M., Gaidhane, Abhay Motiramji, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Galles, Natalie C., Gallus, Silvano, Gamkrelidze, Amiran, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L., Gardner, William M., Geberemariyam, Biniyam Sahiledengle, Gebrehiwot, Abiyu Mekonnen, Gebremedhin, Ketema Bizuwork, Gebremeskel, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn, Gebremeskel, Leake G., Gebresillassie, Begashaw Melaku, Gebreslassie, Assefa Ayalew Ayalew Ayalew, Geramo, Yilma Chisha Dea, Geremew, Abraham, Hayoon, Anna Gershberg, Gesesew, Hailay Abrha, Gething, Peter W., Gezae, Kebede Embaye, Ghadimi, Maryam, Ghadiri, Keyghobad, Ghaffarifar, Fatemeh, Ghafourifard, Mansour, Ghajar, Alireza, Ghamari, Farhad, Ghashghaee, Ahmad, Ghiasvand, Hesam, Ghith, Nermin, Gholamian, Asadollah, Ghosh, Rakesh, Giampaoli, Simona, Gilani, Syed Amir, Gill, Paramjit Singh, Gill, Tiffany K., Gillum, Richard F., Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageed, Ginindza, Themba G., Gitimoghaddam, Mojgan, Giussani, Giorgia, Glagn, Mustefa, Glushkova, Ekaterina Vladimirovna, Gnedovskaya, Elena V., Godinho, Myron Anthony, Goharinezhad, Salime, Golechha, Mahaveer, Goli, Srinivas, Gomez, Ricardo Santiago, Gona, Philimon N., Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Goren, Emily, Gorini, Giuseppe, Gorman, Taren M., Gottlich, Harrison Chase, Goudarzi, Houman, Goudarzian, Amir Hossein, Goulart, Alessandra C., Goulart, Barbara Niegia Garcia, Grada, Ayman, Greaves, Felix, Grivna, Michal, Grosso, Giuseppe, Gubari, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen, Gudi, Nachiket, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Guimaraes, Andre Luiz Sena, Guimaraes, Rafael Alves, Guled, Rashid Abdi, Gultie, Teklemariam, Guo, Gaorui, Guo, Yuming, Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Sharan, Subodh, Gupta, Tarun, Haagsma, Juanita A., Hachinski, Vladimir, Haddock, Beatrix, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hafiz, Abdul, Hagins, Hailey, Haile, Lydia M., Haile, Teklehaimanot Gereziher, Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin, Haj-Mirzaian, Arya, Hall, Brian J., Halvaei, Iman, Hamadeh, Randah R., Abdullah, Kanaan Hamagharib, Hameed, Sajid, Hamidi, Samer, Hamilton, Erin B., Hammer, Melanie S., Han, Chieh, Han, Hannah, Handiso, Demelash Woldeyohannes, Hanif, Asif, Hankey, Graeme J., Haririan, Hamidreza, Haro, Josep Maria, Harvey, James D., Hasaballah, Ahmed I., Hasan, Md Mehedi, Hasanpoor, Edris, Hasanzadeh, Amir, Hashemian, Maryam, Hashi, Abdiwahab, Hassan, Amr, Hassan, Shoaib, Hassanipour, Soheil, Hassankhani, Hadi, Havmoeller, Rasmus J., Hay, Roderick J., Hay, Simon I., Hayat, Khezar, Heibati, Behzad, Heidari, Behnam, Heidari, Golnaz, Heidari-Soureshjani, Reza, Hendrie, Delia, Henny, Kiana, Henok, Andualem, Henrikson, Hannah J., Henry, Nathaniel J., Herbert, Molly E., Herteliu, Claudiu, Heydarpour, Fatemeh, Hird, Thomas R., Ho, Hung Chak, Hoek, Hans W., Hole, Michael K., Holla, Ramesh, Hollingsworth, Bruce, Hoogar, Praveen, Hopf, Kathleen Pillsbury, Horita, Nobuyuki, Hosgood, H. Dean, Hossain, Naznin, Hosseini, Mostafa, Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi, Hostiuc, Mihaela, Hostiuc, Sorin, Househ, Mowafa, Hoy, Damian G., Hsairi, Mohamed, Hsiao, Thomas, Hsieh, Vivian Chia-Rong, Hu, Guoqing, Hu, Kejia, Huda, Tanvir M., Hugo, Fernando N., Humayun, Ayesha, Hussain, Rabia, Huynh, Chantal K., Hwang, Bing-Fang, Iannucci, Vincent C., Iavicoli, Ivo, Ibeneme, Charles Ugochukwu, Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel, Ikeda, Nayu, Ikuta, Kevin S., Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen, Ilic, Irena M., Ilic, Milena D., Imani-Nasab, Mohammad Hasan, Inbaraj, Leeberk Raja, Ippolito, Helen, Iqbal, Usman, Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi, Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter, Islam, M. Mofizul, Islam, MdMohaimenul, Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Islami, Farhad, Iso, Hiroyasu, Ivers, Rebecca Q., Iwu, Chidozie C. D., Iwu, Chinwe Juliana, Iyamu, Ihoghosa Osamuyi, Jaafari, Jalil, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jadidi-Niaragh, Farhad, Jafari, Hussain, Jafarinia, Morteza, Jahagirdar, Deepa, Jahani, Mohammad Ali, Jahanmehr, Nader, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo, Jalali, Amir, Jalilian, Farzad, James, Spencer L., Janjani, Hosna, Janodia, Manthan Dilipkumar, Javaheri, Tahereh, Javidnia, Javad, Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jenabi, Ensiyeh, Jha, Ravi Prakash, Jha, Vivekanand, Ji, John S., Jia, Peng, Johansson, Lars, John, Oommen, John-Akinola, Yetunde O., Johnson, Catherine Owens, Johnson, Sarah Charlotte, Jonas, Jost B., Joo, Tamas, Joshi, Ankur, Joukar, Farahnaz, Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy, Jurisson, Mikk, Kabir, Ali, Kabir, Zubair, Kalani, Hamed, Kalani, Rizwan, Kalankesh, Leila R., Kalhor, Rohollah, Kamath, Aruna M., Kamiab, Zahra, Kanchan, Tanuj, Kapoor, Neeti, Matin, Behzad Karami, Karanikolos, Marina, Karch, Andre, Karim, Mohd Anisul, Karimi, Salah Eddin, Karimi, Seyed Asaad, Karimi, Seyed M., Kasa, Ayele Semachew, Kassa, Getachew Mullu, Kassebaum, Nicholas J., Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Kawakami, Norito, Kayode, Gbenga A., Karyani, Ali Kazemi, Keddie, Suzanne H., Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Keller, Cathleen, Kemmer, Laura, Kendrick, Parkes J., Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif, Khalid, Nauman, Khammarnia, Mohammad, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khan, Gulfaraz, Khan, Maseer, Khang, Young-Ho, Khatab, Khaled, Khater, Amir M., Khater, Mona M., Khatib, Mahalaqua Nazli, Khayamzadeh, Maryam, Khazaei, Salman, Khazaie, Habibolah, Khodayari, Mohammad Taghi, Khoja, Abdullah T., Khubchandani, Jagdish, Khundkar, Roba, Kianipour, Neda, Kieling, Christian, Kim, Cho-Il, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Young-Eun, Kim, Yun Jin, Kimokoti, Ruth W., Kinfu, Yohannes, Kisa, Adnan, Kisa, Sezer, Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna, Kissoon, Niranjan, Kivimaki, Mika, Kneib, Cameron J., Knibbs, Luke D., Knight, Megan, Knudsen, Ann Kristin Skrindo, Kocarnik, Jonathan M., Kochhar, Sonali, Koh, David S. Q., Kohler, Stefan, Kolola, Tufa, Komaki, Hamidreza, Kopec, Jacek A., Korotkova, Anna V., Korshunov, Vladimir Andreevich, Kosen, Soewarta, Kotlo, Anirudh, Koul, Parvaiz A., Koyanagi, Ai, Kraemer, Moritz U. G., Kravchenko, Michael A., Krishan, Kewal, Krohn, Kris J., Kromhout, Hans, Shaji, K. S., Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Bicer, Burcu Kucuk, Kugbey, Nuworza, Kulkarni, Vaman, Kumar, G. Anil, Kumar, Manasi, Kumar, Nithin, Kumar, Pushpendra, Kumar, Vivek, Kumaresh, Girikumar, Kurmi, Om P., Kusuma, Dian, Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe, La Vecchia, Carlo, Lacey, Ben, Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lallukka, Tea, Lam, Jennifer O., Lami, Faris Hasan, Lan, Qing, Landires, Ivan, Lang, Justin J., Langan, Sinead M., Lansingh, Van Charles, Lansky, Sonia, Larson, Heidi Jane, Larson, Samantha Leigh, Larsson, Anders, Lasrado, Savita, Lassi, Zohra S., Lau, Kathryn Mei-Ming, Lauriola, Paolo, Lavados, Pablo M., Lazarus, Jeffrey V., Leal, Lisiane F., Leasher, Janet L., Ledesma, Jorge R., Lee, Paul H., Lee, Shaun Wen Huey, Leever, Andrew T., LeGrand, Kate E., Leigh, James, Leonardi, Matilde, Lescinsky, Haley, Leung, Janni, Levi, Miriam, Lewington, Sarah, Li, Bingyu, Li, Shanshan, Lim, Lee-Ling, Lin, Christine, Lin, Ro-Ting, Linehan, Christine, Linn, Shai, Listl, Stefan, Liu, Hung-Chun, Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Simin, Liu, Xuefeng, Liu, Yang, Liu, Zichen, Lo, Justin, Lodha, Rakesh, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Looker, Katharine J., Lopez, Alan D., Lopez, Jaifred Christian F., Lopukhov, Platon D., Lorkowski, Stefan, Lotufo, Paulo A., Lozano, Rafael, Lu, Alton, Lucas, Tim C. D., Lugo, Alessandra, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan A., Ma, Jianing, Machado, Daiane Borges, MacLachlan, Jennifer H., Madadin, Mohammed, Maddison, Emilie R., Maddison, Ralph, Madotto, Fabiana, Abd El Razek, Hassan Magdy, Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy, Mahasha, Phetole Walter, Mahdavi, Mokhtar Mahdavi, Mahmoudi, Morteza, Mai, Hue Thi, Majeed, Azeem, Malagon-Rojas, Jeadran N., Maled, Venkatesh, Maleki, Afshin, Maleki, Shokofeh, Malekzadeh, Reza, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Mamun, Abdullah A., Manafi, Amir, Manafi, Navid, Manda, Ana Laura, Manguerra, Helena, Mansour-Ghanaei, Fariborz, Mansouri, Borhan, Mansournia, Mohammad Ali, Herrera, Ana M. 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Abstract

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the post

Published
2020
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39. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Vos, Theo, Lim, Stephen S, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M, Abbasi, Mohammad, Abbasifard, Mitra, Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahi, Mohammad, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abolhassani, Hassan, Aboyans, Victor, Abrams, Elissa M, Abreu, Lucas Guimarães, Abrigo, Michael R M, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Abushouk, Abdelrahman I, Acebedo, Alyssa, Ackerman, Ilana N, Adabi, Maryam, Adamu, Abdu A, Adebayo, Oladimeji M, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adelson, Jaimie D, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O, Adham, Davoud, Afshari, Mahdi, Afshin, Ashkan, Agardh, Emilie E, Agarwal, Gina, Agesa, Kareha M, Aghaali, Mohammad, Aghamir, Seyed Mohammad Kazem, Agrawal, Anurag, Ahmad, Tauseef, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmadpour, Ehsan, Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Akombi, Blessing, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Noore, Alam, Samiah, Alam, Tahiya, Alanzi, Turki M, Albertson, Samuel B, Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth, Alema, Niguse Meles, Ali, Muhammad, Ali, Saqib, Alicandro, Gianfranco, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alinia, Cyrus, Alipour, Vahid, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Almasi-Hashiani, Amir, Alonso, Jordi, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M, Altirkawi, Khalid A, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J, Amini, Saeed, Amini-Rarani, Mostafa, Aminorroaya, Arya, Amiri, Fatemeh, Amit, Arianna Maever L, Amugsi, Dickson A, Amul, Gianna Gayle Herrera, Anderlini, Deanna, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Andrei, Tudorel, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansari, Fereshteh, Ansari, Iman, Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Antony, Catherine M, Antriyandarti, Ernoiz, Anvari, Davood, Anwer, Razique, Arabloo, Jalal, Arab-Zozani, Morteza, Aravkin, Aleksandr Y, Ariani, Filippo, Ärnlöv, Johan, Aryal, Krishna K, Arzani, Afsaneh, Asadi-Aliabadi, Mehran, Asadi-Pooya, Ali A, Asghari, Babak, Ashbaugh, Charlie, Atnafu, Desta Debalkie, Atre, Sachin R, Ausloos, Floriane, Ausloos, Marcel, Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, Ayano, Getinet, Ayanore, Martin Amogre, Aynalem, Yared Asmare, Azari, Samad, Azarian, Ghasem, Azene, Zelalem Nigussie, Babaee, Ebrahim, Badawi, Alaa, Bagherzadeh, Mojtaba, Bakhshaei, Mohammad Hossein, Bakhtiari, Ahad, Balakrishnan, Senthilkumar, Balalla, Shivanthi, Balassyano, Shelly, Banach, Maciej, Banik, Palash Chandra, Bannick, Marlena S, Bante, Agegnehu Bante, Baraki, Adhanom Gebreegziabher, Barboza, Miguel A, Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn, Barthelemy, Celine M, Barua, Lingkan, Barzegar, Akbar, Basu, Sanjay, Baune, Bernhard T, Bayati, Mohsen, Bazmandegan, Gholamreza, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Béjot, Yannick, Bello, Aminu K, Bender, Rose G, Bennett, Derrick A, Bennitt, Fiona B, Bensenor, Isabela M, Benziger, Catherine P, Berhe, Kidanemaryam, Bernabe, Eduardo, Bertolacci, Gregory J, Bhageerathy, Reshmi, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhandari, Dinesh, Bhardwaj, Pankaj, Bhattacharyya, Krittika, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Bibi, Sadia, Biehl, Molly H, Bikbov, Boris, Sayeed, Muhammad 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Alemayehu, Zhang, Yunquan, Zhang, Zhi-Jiang, Zhao, Jeff T, Zhao, Yingxi, Zheng, Peng, Zhou, Maigeng, Ziapour, Arash, Zimsen, Stephanie R M, Naghavi, Mohsen, and Murray, Christopher J L

Abstract

Background In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th a

Published
2020

43. Towards Genotype-Specific Care for Chronic Hepatitis B: The First 6 Years Follow Up From the CHARM Cohort Study

Author

Davies, Jane, primary, Smith, Emma L, additional, Littlejohn, Margaret, additional, Edwards, Rosalind, additional, Sozzi, Vitina, additional, Jackson, Kathy, additional, Mcguire, Katie, additional, Binks, Paula, additional, Cowie, Benjamin C, additional, Locarnini, Stephen, additional, Davis, Joshua S, additional, and Tong, Steven Y C, additional

Published
2019
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44. Effect of latitude on seasonality of tuberculosis, Australia, 2002-2011

Author

MacLachlan, Jennifer H., Lavender, Caroline J., and Cowie, Benjamin C.

Subjects
Alfacalcidol, Calcifediol, Vitamin D, Tuberculosis -- Care and treatment, Health, World Health Organization
Abstract

Tuberculosis profoundly affects human health, with 5.7 million new or recurrent cases reported and >1 million deaths attributed to the infection by the World Health Organization in 2010 (1). Tuberculosis [...]

Published
2012
Full Text
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45. Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Author

Lim, Stephen S, Allen, Kate, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Dandona, Lalit, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Fullman, Nancy, Gething, Peter W, Goldberg, Ellen M, Hay, Simon I, Holmberg, Mollie, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kutz, Michael J, Larson, Heidi J, Liang, Xiaofeng, Lopez, Alan D, Lozano, Rafael, McNellan, Claire R, Mokdad, Ali H, Mooney, Meghan D, Naghavi, Mohsen, Olsen, Helen E, Pigott, David M, Salomon, Joshua A, Vos, Theo, Wang, Haidong, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdulle, Abdishakur M, Abraham, Biju, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Abyu, Gebre Yitayih, Achoki, Tom, Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi, Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Arnav, Agrawal, Anurag, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Kedir Yimam, Akanda, Ali Shafqat, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akinyemiju, Tomi F, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Uzma, Alasfoor, Deena, AlBuhairan, Fadia S, Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed, Aldridge, Robert William, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Ali, Raghib, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alkhateeb, Mohammad AB, Alla, Francois, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Christine, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid A, Martin, Elena Alvarez, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amberbir, Alemayehu, Amegah, Adeladza Kofi, Amini, Heresh, Ammar, Walid, Amrock, Stephen Marc, Andersen, Hjalte H, Anderson, Benjamin O, Anderson, Gregory M, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Arnlov, Johan, Artaman, Al, Asayesh, Hamid, Asghar, Rana Jawad, Atique, Suleman, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur, Awasthi, Ashish, Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, Azzopardi, Peter, Bacha, Umar, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Banerjee, Amitava, Barac, Aleksandra, Barber, Ryan, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Barnighausen, Till, Barrero, Lope H, Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh, Basu, Sanjay, Bayou, Tigist Assefa, Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Bejot, Yannick, Bell, Michelle L, Bello, Aminu K, Bennett, Derrick A, Bensenor, Isabela M, Benzian, Habib, Berhane, Adugnaw, Bernabe, Eduardo, Bernal, Oscar Alberto, Betsu, Balem Demtsu, Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhatt, Samir, Biadgilign, Sibhatu, Bienhoff, Kelly A, Bikbov, Boris, Binagwaho, Agnes, Bisanzio, Donal, Bjertness, Espen, Blore, Jed, Bourne, Rupert RA, Brainin, Michael, Brauer, Michael, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas JK, Broday, David M, Brugha, Traolach S, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Butt, Zahid A, Cahill, Leah E, Campos-Nonato, Ismael Ricardo, Campuzano, Julio Cesar, Carabin, Helene, Cardenas, Rosario, Carrero, Juan Jesus, Carter, Austin, Casey, Daniel, Caso, Valeria, Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline, Catala-Lopez, Ferran, Cavalleri, Fiorella, Cecilio, Pedro, Chang, Hsing-Yi, Chang, Jung-Chen, Charlson, Fiona J, Che, Xuan, Chen, Alan Zian, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chibalabala, Mirriam, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Ciobanu, Liliana G, Cirillo, Massimo, Coates, Matthew M, Coggeshall, Megan, Cohen, Aaron J, Cooke, Graham S, Cooper, Cyrus, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cowie, Benjamin C, Crump, John A, Damtew, Solomon Abrha, Dandona, Rakhi, Dargan, Paul I, das Neves, Jose, Davis, Adrian C, Davletov, Kairat, de Castro, E Filipa, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Del Gobbo, Liana C, Deribe, Kebede, Derrett, Sarah, Jarlais, Don C Des, Deshpande, Aniruddha, Deveber, Gabrielle A, Dey, Subhojit, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dhillon, Preet K, Ding, Eric L, Dorsey, E Ray, Doyle, Kerrie E, Driscoll, Tim R, Duan, Leilei, Dubey, Manisha, Duncan, Bruce Bartholow, Ebrahimi, Hedyeh, Endries, Aman Yesuf, Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Erskine, Holly E, Eshrati, Babak, Esteghamati, Alireza, Fahimi, Saman, Farid, Talha A, Sofia e Sa Farinha, Carla, Faro, Andre, Farvid, Maryam S, Farzadfar, Farshad, Feigin, Valery L, Mendonca Felicio, Manuela, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Jefferson G, Fernandes, Joao C, Ferrari, Alize J, Fischer, Florian, Fitchett, Joseph RA, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Foigt, Nataliya, Foreman, Kyle, Fowkes, F Gerry R, Franca, Elisabeth Barboza, Franklin, Richard C, Fraser, Maya, Friedman, Joseph, Frostad, Joseph, Furst, Thomas, Gabbe, Belinda, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L, Gebre, Teshome, Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay, Gebru, Alemseged Aregay, Gessner, Bradford D, Gillum, Richard F, Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Giref, Ababi Zergaw, Giroud, Maurice, Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo, Giussani, Giorgia, Godwin, William, Gona, Philimon, Goodridge, Amador, Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Gotay, Carolyn C, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Graetz, Nicholas, Greenwell, Karen Fern, Griswold, Max, Gugnani, Harish, Guo, Yuming, Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Vipin, Gutierrez, Reyna A, Gyawali, Bishal, Haagsma, Juanita A, Haakenstad, Annie, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Haile, Demewoz, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Halasa, Yara A, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hamidi, Samer, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hankey, Graeme J, Harb, Hilda L, Haro, Josep Maria, Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz, Hoek, Hans W, Horino, Masako, Horita, Nobuyuki, Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian G, Htet, Aung Soe, Hu, Guoqing, Huang, Hsiang, Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Idrisov, Bulat T, Inoue, Manami, Islami, Farhad, Jacobs, Troy A, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jahanmehr, Nader, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B, James, Peter, Jansen, Henrica AFM, Javanbakht, Mehdi, Jayaraman, Sudha P, Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra, Jee, Sun Ha, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Ying, Jibat, Tariku, Jin, Ye, Jonas, Jost B, Kabir, Zubair, Kalkonde, Yogeshwar, Kamal, Ritul, Kan, Haidong, Kandel, Amit, Karch, Andre, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Karimkhani, Chante, Karunapema, Palitha, Kasaeian, Amir, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kayibanda, Jeanne Francoise, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Kemmer, Laura, Kemp, Andrew Haddon, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khan, Abdur Rahman, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khan, Gulfaraz, Khang, Young-Ho, Khoja, Tawfi K Ahmed Muthafer, Khosravi, Ardeshir, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kieling, Christian, Kim, Cho-Il, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kim, Yun Jin, Kimokoti, Ruth W, Kissoon, Niranjan, Kivipelto, Miia, Knibbs, Luke D, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kolte, Dhaval, Kosen, Soewarta, Kotsakis, Georgios A, Koul, Parvaiz A, Koyanagi, Ai, Kravchenko, Michael, Krueger, Hans, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kuchenbecker, Ricardo S, Kuipers, Ernst J, Kulikoff, Xie Rachel, Kulkarni, Veena S, Kumar, G Anil, Kwan, Gene F, Kyu, Hmwe H, Lal, Aparna, Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lam, Hilton, Lan, Qing, Langan, Sinead M, Larsson, Anders, Laryea, Dennis Odai, Latif, Asma Abdul, Leasher, Janet L, Leigh, James, Leinsalu, Mall, Leung, Janni, Leung, Ricky, Levi, Miriam, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, Lind, Margaret, Linn, Shai, Lipshultz, Steven E, Liu, Patrick Y, Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lloyd, Belinda K, Lo, Loon-Tzian, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lucas, Robyn M, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Abd El Razek, Mohammed Magdy, Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos, Mahdavi, Mahdi, Majdan, Marek, Majeed, Azeem, Malekzadeh, Reza, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Mapoma, Chabila C, Margolis, David Joel, Martin, Randall V, Martinez-Raga, Jose, Masiye, Felix, Mason-Jones, Amanda J, Massano, Joao, Matzopoulos, Richard, Mayosi, Bongani M, McGrath, John J, Mckee, Martin, Meaney, Peter A, Mehari, Alem, Mekonnen, Alemayehu B, Melaku, Yohannes Adama, Memiah, Peter, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Mensink, Gert BM, Meretoja, Atte, Meretoja, Tuomo J, Mesfin, Yonatan Moges, Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary, Micha, Renata, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mirarefi, Mojde, Misganaw, Awoke, Mitchell, Philip B, Mock, Charles N, Mohammadi, Alireza, Mohammed, Shafi U, Monasta, Lorenzo, De la Cruz Monis, Jonathan, Montanez Hernandez, Julio Cesar, Montico, Marcella, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, 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Joao Mario, Pereira, David M, Perico, Norberto, Pesudovs, Konrad, Petzold, Max, Phillips, Michael Robert, Piel, Frederic B, Pillay, Julian David, Pinho, Christine, Pishgar, Farhad, Polinder, Suzanne, Poulton, Richie G, Pourmalek, Farshad, Qorbani, Mostafa, Rabiee, Rynaz HS, Radfar, Amir, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Rajsic, Sasa, Raju, Murugesan, Ram, Usha, Rana, Saleem M, Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, Ranganathan, Kavitha, Rao, Puja C, Refaat, Amany H, Reitsma, Marissa B, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Resnikoff, Serge, Ribeiro, Antonio L, Rios Blancas, Maria Jesus, Roba, Hirbo Shore, Roberts, Bayard, Rodriguez, Alina, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Roth, Gregory A, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Roy, Ambuj, Roy, Nobhojit, Sackey, Ben Benasco, Sagar, Rajesh, Saleh, Muhammad Muhammad, Sanabria, Juan R, Santos, Joao Vasco, Santomauro, Damian F, Santos, Itamar S, Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo, Sartorius, Benn, 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F. M., Jansen, Mehdi, Javanbakht, Achala Upendra, Jayatilleke, Sun Ha, Jee, Panniyammakal, Jeemon, Vivekanand, Jha, Ying, Jiang, Tariku, Jibat, Ye, Jin, Jost B., Jona, Zubair, Kabir, Yogeshwar, Kalkonde, Ritul, Kamal, Haidong, Kan, Amit, Kandel, André, Karch, Corine Kakizi, Karema, Chante, Karimkhani, Palitha, Karunapema, Amir, Kasaeian, Nicholas J., Kassebaum, Anil, Kaul, Norito, Kawakami, Jeanne Françoise, Kayibanda, Peter Njenga, Keiyoro, Laura, Kemmer, Andrew Haddon, Kemp, Andre Pascal, Kengne, Andre, Keren, Chandrasekharan Nair, Kesavachandran, Yousef Saleh, Khader, Abdur Rahman, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khan, Gulfaraz, Khan, Young Ho, Khang, Tawfi k., Ahmed Muthafer Khoja, Ardeshir, Khosravi, Jagdish, Khubchandani, Christian, Kieling, Cho il, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kim, Yun Jin, Kim, Ruth W., Kimokoti, Niranjan, Kissoon, Miia, Kivipelto, Luke D., Knibb, Yoshihiro, Kokubo, Dhaval, Kolte, Soewarta, Kosen, Georgios A., Kotsaki, Parvaiz A., Koul, Ai, Koyanagi, Michael, Kravchenko, Hans, Krueger, Barthelemy Kuate, Defo, Ricardo S., Kuchenbecker, Ernst J., Kuiper, Xie Rachel, Kulikoff, Veena S., Kulkarni, G., Anil Kumar, Gene F., Kwan, Hmwe H., Kyu, Aparna, Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Lal, Ratilal, Lalloo, Hilton, Lam, Qing, Lan, Sinead M., Langan, Anders, Larsson, Dennis Odai, Laryea, Asma Abdul, Latif, Janet L., Leasher, James, Leigh, Mall, Leinsalu, Janni, Leung, Ricky, Leung, Miriam, Levi, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, Li, Margaret, Lind, Shai, Linn, Steven E., Lipshultz, Patrick Y., Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Liu, Belinda K., Lloyd, Loon Tzian, Lo, Giancarlo, Logroscino, Paulo A., Lotufo, Robyn M., Luca, Raimundas, Luneviciu, Mohammed Magdy Abd El, Razek, Carlos Magis, Rodriguez, Mahdi, Mahdavi, Marek, Majdan, Azeem, Majeed, Reza, Malekzadeh, Deborah Carvalho, Malta, Chabila C., Mapoma, David Joel, Margoli, Randall V., Martin, Jose Martinez, Raga, Felix, Masiye, Amanda J., Mason Jone, João, Massano, Richard, Matzopoulo, Bongani M., Mayosi, John J., Mcgrath, Martin, Mckee, Peter A., Meaney, Alem, Mehari, Alemayehu B., Mekonnen, Yohannes Adama, Melaku, Peter, Memiah, Ziad A., Memish, Walter, Mendoza, Gert B. M., Mensink, Atte, Meretoja, Tuomo J., Meretoja, Yonatan Moges Mesfi, N, Francis Apolinary, Mhimbira, Renata, Micha, Ted R., Miller, Edward J., Mill, Mojde Mirarefi, N, Awoke, Misganaw, Philip B., Mitchell, Charles N., Mock, Alireza, Mohammadi, Shafi u., Mohammed, Lorenzo, Monasta, Jonathan de la Cruz, Moni, Julio Cesar Montañez, Hernandez, Marcella, Montico, Maziar Moradi, Lakeh, Lidia, Morawska, Rintaro, Mori, Ulrich O., Mueller, Michele E., Murdoch, Brighton, Murimira, Joseph, Murray, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana, Murthy, Srinivas, Murthy, Kamarul Imran, Musa, Jean B., Nachega, Gabriele, Nagel, Kovin S., Naidoo, Luigi, Naldi, Vinay, Nangia, Bruce, Neal, Chakib, Nejjari, Charles R., Newton, John N., Newton, Frida Namnyak, Ngalesoni, Peter, Nguhiu, Grant, Nguyen, Quyen Le, Nguyen, Muhammad Imran, Nisar, Patrick Martial Nkamedjie, Pete, Sandra, Nolte, Marika, Nomura, Ole F., Norheim, Bo, Norrving, Carla Makhlouf, Obermeyer, Felix Akpojene, Ogbo, In Hwan, Oh, Olanrewaju, Oladimeji, Pedro R., Olivare, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Olusanya, John Nelson, Opio, Eyal, Oren, Alberto, Ortiz, Richard H., Osborne, Erika, Ota, Mayowa O., Owolabi, Mahesh, Pa, Eun Kee, Park, Hye Youn, Park, Charles D., Parry, Mahboubeh, Parsaeian, Tejas, Patel, Vikram, Patel, Angel J., Paternina Caicedo, Snehal T., Patil, Scott B., Patten, George C., Patton, Deepak, Paudel, João Mário, Pedro, David M., Pereira, Norberto, Perico, Konrad, Pesudov, Max, Petzold, Michael Robert, Phillip, Frédéric B., Piel, Julian David, Pillay, Christine, Pinho, Farhad, Pishgar, Suzanne, Polinder, Richie G., Poulton, Farshad, Pourmalek, Mostafa, Qorbani, Rynaz H. S., Rabiee, Amir, Radfar, Vafa Rahimi, Movaghar, Mahfuzar, Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Rahman, Rajesh Kumar, Rai, Sasa, Rajsic, Murugesan, Raju, Usha, Ram, Saleem M., Rana, Chhabi Lal, Ranabhat, Kavitha, Ranganathan, Puja C., Rao, Amany H., Refaat, Marissa B., Reitsma, Giuseppe, Remuzzi, Serge, Resnikoff, Antonio L., Ribeiro, Maria Jesus Rios, Blanca, Hirbo Shore, Roba, Bayard, Robert, Alina, Rodriguez, David Rojas, Rueda, Luca, Ronfani, Gholamreza, Roshandel, Gregory A., Roth, Dietrich, Rothenbacher, Ambuj, Roy, Nobhojit, Roy, Ben Benasco, Sackey, Rajesh, Sagar, Muhammad Muhammad, Saleh, Juan R., Sanabria, Damian F., Santomauro, Itamar S., Santo, Rodrigo Sarmiento, Suarez, Benn, Sartoriu, Maheswar, Satpathy, Miloje, Savic, Monika, Sawhney, Susan M., Sawyer, Josef, Schmidhuber, Maria Inês, Schmidt, Ione J. C., Schneider, Aletta E., Schutte, David C., Schwebel, Soraya, Seedat, Sadaf G., Sepanlou, Edson E., Servan Mori, Katya, Shackelford, Amira, Shaheen, Masood Ali, Shaikh, Teresa Shamah, Levy, Rajesh, Sharma, Jun, She, Sara, Sheikhbahaei, Jiabin, Shen, Kevin N., Sheth, Muki, Shey, Peilin, Shi, Kenji, Shibuya, Mika, Shigematsu, Min Jeong, Shin, Rahman, Shiri, Kawkab, Shishani, Ivy, Shiue, Inga Dora, Sigfusdottir, Naris, Silpakit, Diego Augusto Santos, Silva, Jonathan I., Silverberg, Edgar P., Simard, Shireen, Sindi, Abhishek, Singh, Gitanjali M., Singh, Jasvinder A., Singh, Om Prakash, Singh, Prashant Kumar, Singh, Vegard, Skirbekk, Amber, Sligar, Samir, Soneji, Kjetil, Søreide, Reed J. D., Sorensen, Joan B., Soriano, Sergey, Soshnikov, Luciano A., Sposato, Chandrashekhar T., Sreeramareddy, Hans Christian, Stahl, Jeff rey D., Stanaway, Vasiliki, Stathopoulou, Nadine, Steckling, Nicholas, Steel, Dan J., Stein, Caitlyn, Steiner, Heidi, Stöckl, Saverio, Strange, Mark, Strong, Jiandong, Sun, Bruno F., Sunguya, Patrick, Sur, Soumya, Swaminathan, Bryan L., Syke, Cassandra E. I., Szoeke, Rafael Tabarés, Seisdedo, Karen M., Tabb, Roberto Tchio, Talongwa, Mohammed Rasoul, Tarawneh, Mohammad, Tavakkoli, Bineyam, Taye, Hugh R., Taylor, Bemnet Amare, Tedla, Worku, Tefera, Teketo Kassaw, Tegegne, Dejen Yemane, Tekle, Girma Temam, Shifa, Abdullah Sulieman, Terkawi, Gizachew Assefa, Tessema, J. S., Thakur, Alan J., Thomson, Andrew L., Thorne Lyman, Amanda G., Thrift, George D., Thurston, Taavi, Tillmann, Ruoyan Tobe, Gai, Marcello, Tonelli, Roman Topor, Madry, Fotis, Topouzi, Bach Xuan, Tran, Zacharie Tsala, Dimbuene, Abera Kenay, Tura, Emin Murat, Tuzcu, Stefanos, Tyrovola, Kingsley Nnanna, Ukwaja, Eduardo A., Undurraga, Chigozie Jesse, Uneke, Olalekan A., Uthman, Aaron van, Donkelaar, Yuri Y., Varakin, Tommi, Vasankari, Ana Maria Nogales, Vasconcelo, J., Lennert Veerman, Narayanaswamy, Venketasubramanian, Raj Kumar, Verma, Francesco S., Violante, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vlassov, Patricia, Volkow, Stein Emil, Vollset, Gregory R., Wagner, Mitchell T., Wallin, Linhong, Wang, Valentine, Wanga, David A., Watkin, Scott, Weichenthal, Elisabete, Weiderpa, Robert G., Weintraub, Daniel J., Wei, Andrea, Werdecker, Ronny, Westerman, Harvey A., Whiteford, James D., Wilkinson, Charles Shey, Wiysonge, Charles D. A., Wolfe, Ingrid, Wolfe, Sungho, Won, Anthony D., Woolf, Shimelash Bitew, Workie, Mamo, Wubshet, Gelin, Xu, Ajit Kumar, Yadav, Bereket, Yakob, Ayalnesh Zemene, Yalew, Lijing L., Yan, Yuichiro, Yano, Mehdi, Yaseri, Pengpeng, Ye, Paul, Yip, Naohiro, Yonemoto, Seok Jun, Yoon, Mustafa Z., Youni, Chuanhua, Yu, Zoubida, Zaidi, Maysaa El Sayed, Zaki, Carlos Zambrana, Torrelio, Tomas, Zapata, Elias Asfaw, Zegeye, Yi, Zhao, Maigeng, Zhou, Sanjay, Zodpey, David, Zonie, Christopher J. L., Murray, Lim, Stephen S, Allen, Kate, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Dandona, Lalit, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Fullman, Nancy, Gething, Peter W, Goldberg, Ellen M, Hay, Simon I, Holmberg, Mollie, Kinfu, Yohanne, Kutz, Michael J, Larson, Heidi J, Liang, Xiaofeng, Lopez, Alan D, Lozano, Rafael, Mcnellan, Claire R, Mokdad, Ali H, Mooney, Meghan D, Naghavi, Mohsen, Olsen, Helen E, Pigott, David M, Salomon, Joshua A, Vos, Theo, Wang, Haidong, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdulle, Abdishakur M, Abraham, Biju, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E, Abyu, Gebre Yitayih, Achoki, Tom, Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi, Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Arnav, Agrawal, Anurag, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Kedir Yimam, Akanda, Ali Shafqat, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akinyemiju, Tomi F, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Uzma, Alasfoor, Deena, Albuhairan, Fadia S, Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed, Aldridge, Robert William, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Ali, Raghib, Alkerwi, Ala'A, Alkhateeb, Mohammad AB, Alla, Françoi, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Christine, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Altirkawi, Khalid A, Martin, Elena Alvarez, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amberbir, Alemayehu, Amegah, Adeladza Kofi, Amini, Heresh, Ammar, Walid, Amrock, Stephen Marc, Andersen, Hjalte H, Anderson, Benjamin O, Anderson, Gregory M, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Ärnlöv, Johan, Artaman, Al, Asayesh, Hamid, Asghar, Rana Jawad, Atique, Suleman, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur, Awasthi, Ashish, Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, Azzopardi, Peter, Bacha, Umar, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Banerjee, Amitava, Barac, Aleksandra, Barber, Ryan, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Bärnighausen, Till, Barrero, Lope H, Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh, Basu, Sanjay, Bayou, Tigist Assefa, Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Béjot, Yannick, Bell, Michelle L, Bello, Aminu K, Bennett, Derrick A, Bensenor, Isabela M, Benzian, Habib, Berhane, Adugnaw, Bernabé, Eduardo, Bernal, Oscar Alberto, Betsu, Balem Demtsu, Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhatt, Samir, Biadgilign, Sibhatu, Bienhoff, Kelly A, Bikbov, Bori, Binagwaho, Agne, Bisanzio, Donal, Bjertness, Espen, Blore, Jed, Bourne, Rupert R A, Brainin, Michael, Brauer, Michael, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J K, Broday, David M, Brugha, Traolach S, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Butt, Zahid A, Cahill, Leah E, Campos-Nonato, Ismael Ricardo, Campuzano, Julio Cesar, Carabin, Hélène, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carrero, Juan Jesu, Carter, Austin, Casey, Daniel, Caso, Valeria, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Cavalleri, Fiorella, Cecílio, Pedro, Chang, Hsing-Yi, Chang, Jung-Chen, Charlson, Fiona J, Che, Xuan, Chen, Alan Zian, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chibalabala, Mirriam, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Ciobanu, Liliana G, Coates, Matthew M, Coggeshall, Megan, Cohen, Aaron J, Cooke, Graham S, Cooper, Cyru, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cowie, Benjamin C, Crump, John A, Damtew, Solomon Abrha, Dandona, Rakhi, Dargan, Paul I, Neves, José da, Davis, Adrian C, Davletov, Kairat, de Castro, E Filipa, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Del Gobbo, Liana C, Deribe, Kebede, Derrett, Sarah, Des Jarlais, Don C, Deshpande, Aniruddha, Deveber, Gabrielle A, Dey, Subhojit, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dhillon, Preet K, Ding, Eric L, Dorsey, E Ray, Doyle, Kerrie E, Driscoll, Tim R, Duan, Leilei, Dubey, Manisha, Duncan, Bruce Bartholow, Ebrahimi, Hedyeh, Endries, Aman Yesuf, Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Erskine, Holly E, Eshrati, Babak, Esteghamati, Alireza, Fahimi, Saman, Farid, Talha A, Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sa, Faro, André, Farvid, Maryam S, Farzadfar, Farshad, Feigin, Valery L, Felicio, Manuela Mendonca, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Jefferson G, Fernandes, Joao C, Ferrari, Alize J, Fischer, Florian, Fitchett, Joseph R A, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Foigt, Nataliya, Foreman, Kyle, Fowkes, F Gerry R, Franca, Elisabeth Barboza, Franklin, Richard C, Fraser, Maya, Friedman, Joseph, Frostad, Joseph, Fürst, Thoma, Gabbe, Belinda, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L, Gebre, Teshome, Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay, Gebru, Alemseged Aregay, Gessner, Bradford D, Gillum, Richard F, Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Giref, Ababi Zergaw, Giroud, Maurice, Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo, Godwin, William, Gona, Philimon, Goodridge, Amador, Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Gotay, Carolyn C, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Graetz, Nichola, Greenwell, Karen Fern, Griswold, Max, Guo, Yuming, Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Vipin, Gutiérrez, Reyna A, Gyawali, Bishal, Haagsma, Juanita A, Haakenstad, Annie, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Haile, Demewoz, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Halasa, Yara A, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hamidi, Samer, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hankey, Graeme J, Harb, Hilda L, Haro, Josep Maria, Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh, Havmoeller, Rasmu, Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz, Hoek, Hans W, Horino, Masako, Horita, Nobuyuki, Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian G, Htet, Aung Soe, Hu, Guoqing, Huang, Hsiang, Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Idrisov, Bulat T, Inoue, Manami, Islami, Farhad, Jacobs, Troy A, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jahanmehr, Nader, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B, James, Peter, Jansen, Henrica A F M, Javanbakht, Mehdi, Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra, Jee, Sun Ha, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Ying, Jibat, Tariku, Jin, Ye, Jonas, Jost B, Kabir, Zubair, Kalkonde, Yogeshwar, Kamal, Ritul, Kan, Haidong, Kandel, Amit, Karch, André, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Karimkhani, Chante, Karunapema, Palitha, Kasaeian, Amir, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kayibanda, Jeanne Françoise, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Kemmer, Laura, Kemp, Andrew Haddon, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khan, Abdur Rahman, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khan, Gulfaraz, Khang, Young-Ho, Khoja, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer, Khosravi, Ardeshir, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kieling, Christian, Kim, Cho-il, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kim, Yun Jin, Kimokoti, Ruth W, Kissoon, Niranjan, Kivipelto, Miia, Knibbs, Luke D, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kolte, Dhaval, Kosen, Soewarta, Kotsakis, Georgios A, Koul, Parvaiz A, Koyanagi, Ai, Kravchenko, Michael, Krueger, Han, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kuchenbecker, Ricardo S, Kuipers, Ernst J, Kulikoff, Xie Rachel, Kulkarni, Veena S, Kumar, G Anil, Kwan, Gene F, Kyu, Hmwe H, Lal, Aparna, Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lam, Hilton, Lan, Qing, Langan, Sinead M, Larsson, Ander, Laryea, Dennis Odai, Latif, Asma Abdul, Leasher, Janet L, Leigh, Jame, Leinsalu, Mall, Leung, Janni, Leung, Ricky, Levi, Miriam, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, Lind, Margaret, Linn, Shai, Lipshultz, Steven E, Liu, Patrick Y, Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lloyd, Belinda K, Lo, Loon-Tzian, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lucas, Robyn M, Lunevicius, Raimunda, El Razek, Mohammed Magdy Abd, Magis-Rodriguez, Carlo, Mahdavi, Mahdi, Majdan, Marek, Majeed, Azeem, Malekzadeh, Reza, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Mapoma, Chabila C, Margolis, David Joel, Martin, Randall V, Martinez-Raga, Jose, Masiye, Felix, Mason-Jones, Amanda J, Massano, João, Matzopoulos, Richard, Mayosi, Bongani M, Mcgrath, John J, Mckee, Martin, Meaney, Peter A, Mehari, Alem, Mekonnen, Alemayehu B, Melaku, Yohannes Adama, Memiah, Peter, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Mensink, Gert B M, Meretoja, Atte, Meretoja, Tuomo J, Mesfin, Yonatan Moge, Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary, Micha, Renata, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mirarefin, Mojde, Misganaw, Awoke, Mitchell, Philip B, Mock, Charles N, Mohammadi, Alireza, Mohammed, Shafiu, Monasta, Lorenzo, de la Cruz Monis, Jonathan, Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montañez, Montico, Marcella, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Morawska, Lidia, Mori, Rintaro, Mueller, Ulrich O, Murdoch, Michele E, Murimira, Brighton, Murray, Joseph, Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana, Murthy, Sriniva, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Nachega, Jean B, Nagel, Gabriele, Naidoo, Kovin S, Naldi, Luigi, Nangia, Vinay, Neal, Bruce, Nejjari, Chakib, Newton, Charles R, Newton, John N, Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak, Nguhiu, Peter, Nguyen, Grant, Le Nguyen, Quyen, Nisar, Muhammad Imran, Pete, Patrick Martial Nkamedjie, Nolte, Sandra, Nomura, Marika, Norheim, Ole F, Norrving, Bo, Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf, Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Oh, In-Hwan, Oladimeji, Olanrewaju, Olivares, Pedro R, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Opio, John Nelson, Oren, Eyal, Ortiz, Alberto, Osborne, Richard H, Ota, Erika, Owolabi, Mayowa O, Pa, Mahesh, Park, Eun-Kee, Park, Hye-Youn, Parry, Charles D, Parsaeian, Mahboubeh, Patel, Teja, Patel, Vikram, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Patil, Snehal T, Patten, Scott B, Patton, George C, Paudel, Deepak, Pedro, João Mário, Pereira, David M, Perico, Norberto, Pesudovs, Konrad, Petzold, Max, Phillips, Michael Robert, Piel, Frédéric B, Pillay, Julian David, Pinho, Christine, Pishgar, Farhad, Polinder, Suzanne, Poulton, Richie G, Pourmalek, Farshad, Qorbani, Mostafa, Rabiee, Rynaz H S, Radfar, Amir, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Rajsic, Sasa, Raju, Murugesan, Ram, Usha, Rana, Saleem M, Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, Ranganathan, Kavitha, Rao, Puja C, Refaat, Amany H, Reitsma, Marissa B, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Resnikoff, Serge, Ribeiro, Antonio L, Blancas, Maria Jesus Rio, Roba, Hirbo Shore, Roberts, Bayard, Rodriguez, Alina, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Roth, Gregory A, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Roy, Ambuj, Roy, Nobhojit, Sackey, Ben Benasco, Sagar, Rajesh, Saleh, Muhammad Muhammad, Sanabria, Juan R, Santomauro, Damian F, Santos, Itamar S, Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo, Sartorius, Benn, Satpathy, Maheswar, Savic, Miloje, Sawhney, Monika, Sawyer, Susan M, Schmidhuber, Josef, Schmidt, Maria Inê, Schneider, Ione J C, Schutte, Aletta E, Schwebel, David C, Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Servan-Mori, Edson E, Shackelford, Katya, Shaheen, Amira, Shaikh, Masood Ali, Levy, Teresa Shamah, Sharma, Rajesh, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shen, Jiabin, Sheth, Kevin N, Shey, Muki, Shi, Peilin, Shibuya, Kenji, Shigematsu, Mika, Shin, Min-Jeong, Shiri, Rahman, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Silpakit, Nari, Silva, Diego Augusto Santo, Silverberg, Jonathan I, Simard, Edgar P, Sindi, Shireen, Singh, Abhishek, Singh, Gitanjali M, Singh, Jasvinder A, Singh, Om Prakash, Singh, Prashant Kumar, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sligar, Amber, Soneji, Samir, Søreide, Kjetil, Sorensen, Reed J D, Soriano, Joan B, Soshnikov, Sergey, Sposato, Luciano A, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Stahl, Hans-Christian, Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki, Steckling, Nadine, Steel, Nichola, Stein, Dan J, Steiner, Caitlyn, Stöckl, Heidi, Stranges, Saverio, Strong, Mark, Sun, Jiandong, Sunguya, Bruno F, Sur, Patrick, Swaminathan, Soumya, Sykes, Bryan L, Szoeke, Cassandra E I, Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael, Tabb, Karen M, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Tarawneh, Mohammed Rasoul, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taye, Bineyam, Taylor, Hugh R, Tedla, Bemnet Amare, Tefera, Worku, Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw, Tekle, Dejen Yemane, Shifa, Girma Temam, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Tessema, Gizachew Assefa, Thakur, J.S., Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Thrift, Amanda G, Thurston, George D, Tillmann, Taavi, Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan, Tonelli, Marcello, Topor-Madry, Roman, Topouzis, Foti, Tran, Bach Xuan, Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala, Tura, Abera Kenay, Tuzcu, Emin Murat, Tyrovolas, Stefano, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Undurraga, Eduardo A, Uneke, Chigozie Jesse, Uthman, Olalekan A, van Donkelaar, Aaron, Varakin, Yuri Y, Vasankari, Tommi, Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogale, Veerman, J Lennert, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Verma, Raj Kumar, Violante, Francesco S, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Volkow, Patricia, Vollset, Stein Emil, Wagner, Gregory R, Wallin, Mitchell T, Wang, Linhong, Wanga, Valentine, Watkins, David A, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Weiss, Daniel J, Werdecker, Andrea, Westerman, Ronny, Whiteford, Harvey A, Wilkinson, James D, Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Wolfe, Charles D A, Wolfe, Ingrid, Won, Sungho, Woolf, Anthony D, Workie, Shimelash Bitew, Wubshet, Mamo, Xu, Gelin, Yadav, Ajit Kumar, Yakob, Bereket, Yalew, Ayalnesh Zemene, Yan, Lijing L, Yano, Yuichiro, Yaseri, Mehdi, Ye, Pengpeng, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa Z, Yu, Chuanhua, Zaidi, Zoubida, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlo, Zapata, Toma, Zegeye, Elias Asfaw, Zhao, Yi, Zhou, Maigeng, Zodpey, Sanjay, Zonies, David, and Murray, Christopher J L

Subjects
Conservation of Natural Resources, spline regressions, Health Status, Global Health, Goal, Health Statu, Cost of Illness, Risk Factors, Universal Health Insurance, Quality-Adjusted Life Year, health-related SDG performance indicators, socio-demographic index, Health Status Indicators, Humans, Conservation of Natural Resource, Disabled Persons, Health Status Indicator, Medicine(all), Insurance, Health, Risk Factor, Medicine (all), Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology, Articles, Cost of Illne, Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi, Disabled Person, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Universal Coverage, Goals, Human
Abstract

Summary Background In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). Methods We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. Findings In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8–61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2–86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4–24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0–10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7–13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1–8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. Interpretation GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2016

47. The Burden of Primary Liver Cancer and Underlying Etiologies From 1990 to 2015 at the Global, Regional, and National Level Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Author

Akinyemiju, Tomi, Abera, Semaw, Ahmed, Muktar, Alam, Noore, Alemayohu, Mulubirhan Assefa, Allen, Christine, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amoako, Yaw, Artaman, Al, Ayele, Tadesse Awoke, Barac, Aleksandra, Bensenor, Isabela, Berhane, Adugnaw, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Castillo-Rivas, Jacqueline, Chitheer, Abdulaal, Choi, Jee-Young, Cowie, Benjamin, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dey, Subhojit, Dicker, Daniel, Phuc, Huyen, Ekwueme, Donatus U, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, Fischer, Florian, Furst, Thomas, Hancock, Jamie, Hay, Simon I, Hotez, Peter, Jee, Sun Ha, Kasaeian, Amir, Khader, Yousef, Khang, Young-Ho, Kumar, G Anil, Kutz, Michael, Larson, Heidi, Lopez, Alan, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Malekzadeh, Reza, McAlinden, Colm, Meier, Toni, Mendoza, Walter, Mokdad, Ali, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Nagel, Gabriele, Nguyen, Quyen, Nguyen, Grant, Ogbo, Felix, Patton, George, Pereira, David M, Pourmalek, Farshad, Qorbani, Mostafa, Radfar, Amir, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Salomon, Joshua A, Sanabria, Juan, Sartorius, Benn, Satpathy, Maheswar, Sawhney, Monika, Sepanlou, Sadaf, Shackelford, Katya, Shore, Hirbo, Sun, Jiandong, Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese, Topor-Madry, Roman, Tran, Bach, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Vlassov, Vasiliy, Vollset, Stein Emil, Vos, Theo, Wakayo, Tolassa, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Werdecker, Andrea, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Zaidi, Zoubida, Zhu, Liguo, Murray, Christopher JL, Naghavi, Mohsen, Fitzmaurice, Christina, and Colla, Global Burden Dis Liver Canc

Published
2017

48. The Burden of Primary Liver Cancer and Underlying Etiologies From 1990 to 2015 at the Global, Regional, and National Level: Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Author

Global Burden of Disease Liver Cancer Collaboration, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Abera, Semaw, Ahmed, Muktar, Alam, Noore, Alemayohu, Mulubirhan Assefa, Allen, Christine, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amoako, Yaw, Artaman, Al, Ayele, Tadesse Awoke, Barac, Aleksandra, Bensenor, Isabela, Berhane, Adugnaw, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Castillo-Rivas, Jacqueline, Chitheer, Abdulaal, Choi, Jee-Young, Cowie, Benjamin, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dey, Subhojit, Dicker, Daniel, Phuc, Huyen, Ekwueme, Donatus U, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, Fischer, Florian, Fürst, Thomas, Hancock, Jamie, Hay, Simon I, Hotez, Peter, Jee, Sun Ha, Kasaeian, Amir, Khader, Yousef, Khang, Young-Ho, Kumar, Anil, Kutz, Michael, Larson, Heidi, Lopez, Alan, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Malekzadeh, Reza, McAlinden, Colm, Meier, Toni, Mendoza, Walter, Mokdad, Ali, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Nagel, Gabriele, Nguyen, Quyen, Nguyen, Grant, Ogbo, Felix, Patton, George, Pereira, David M, Pourmalek, Farshad, Qorbani, Mostafa, Radfar, Amir, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Salomon, Joshua A, Sanabria, Juan, Sartorius, Benn, Satpathy, Maheswar, Sawhney, Monika, Sepanlou, Sadaf, Shackelford, Katya, Shore, Hirbo, Sun, Jiandong, Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese, Topór-Mądry, Roman, Tran, Bach, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Vlassov, Vasiliy, Vollset, Stein Emil, Vos, Theo, Wakayo, Tolassa, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Werdecker, Andrea, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Zaidi, Zoubida, Zhu, Liguo, Murray, Christopher JL, Naghavi, Mohsen, and Fitzmaurice, Christina

Abstract

IMPORTANCE: Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths globally. The most common causes for liver cancer include hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and alcohol use. OBJECTIVE: To report results of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study on primary liver cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 countries or territories from 1990 to 2015, and present global, regional, and national estimates on the burden of liver cancer attributable to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and an "other" group that encompasses residual causes. DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS: Mortality was estimated using vital registration and cancer registry data in an ensemble modeling approach. Single-cause mortality estimates were adjusted for all-cause mortality. Incidence was derived from mortality estimates and the mortality-to-incidence ratio. Through a systematic literature review, data on the proportions of liver cancer due to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and other causes were identified. Years of life lost were calculated by multiplying each death by a standard life expectancy. Prevalence was estimated using mortality-to-incidence ratio as surrogate for survival. Total prevalence was divided into 4 sequelae that were multiplied by disability weights to derive years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were the sum of years of life lost and YLDs. MAIN OUTCOMESAND MEASURES: Liver cancer mortality, incidence, YLDs, years of life lost, DALYs by etiology, age, sex, country, and year. RESULTS: There were 854 000 incident cases of liver cancer and 810 000 deaths globally in 2015, contributing to 20 578 000 DALYs. Cases of incident liver cancer increased by 75% between 1990 and 2015, of which 47% can be explained by changing population age structures, 35% by population growth, and -8% to changing age-specific incidence rates. The male-to-female ratio for age-standardized liver cancer mortality was 2.8. Globally, HBV accounted for 265 000 liver cancer deaths (33%), alcohol for 245 000 (30%), HCV for 167 000 (21%), and other causes for 133 000 (16%) deaths, with substantial variation between countries in the underlying etiologies. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths in many countries. Causes of liver cancer differ widely among populations. Our results show that most cases of liver cancer can be prevented through vaccination, antiviral treatment, safe blood transfusion and injection practices, as well as interventions to reduce excessive alcohol use. In line with the Sustainable Development Goals, the identification and elimination of risk factors for liver cancer will be required to achieve a sustained reduction in liver cancer burden. The GBD study can be used to guide these prevention efforts.

Published
2017

50. Hepatitis E infections, Victoria, Australia

Author

Cowie, Benjamin C., Adamopoulos, Jim, Carter, Karen, and Kelly, Heath

Subjects
Hepatitis E virus -- Development and progression, Communicable diseases -- Development and progression
Abstract

In the first half of 2004, acute hepatitis E virus infections diagnosed in Victoria, Australia, increased 7-fold. Of the interviewed patients with highly reactive serologic results, 90% reported recent clinically [...]

Published
2005

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