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I report on long-term patterns of outbreak cycling in four study systems across Canada and illustrate how forecasting in these systems is highly imprecise because of complexity in the cycling and a lack of spatial synchrony amongst sample locations. I describe how a range of bottom-up effects could be generating complexity in these otherwise periodic systems. (1) The spruce budworm in Québec exhibits aperiodic and asynchronous behavior at fast time-scales, and a slow modulation of cycle peak intensity that varies regionally. (2) The forest tent caterpillar across Canada exhibits eruptive spiking behavior that is aperiodic locally, and asynchronous amongst regions, yet aggregates to produce a pattern of periodic outbreaks. In Québec, forest tent caterpillar cycles differ in the aspen-dominated northwest versus the maple-dominated southeast, with opposing patterns of cycle intensity between the two regions. (3) In Alberta, forest tent caterpillar outbreak cycles resist synchronization across a forest landscape gradient, even at very fine spatial scales, resulting in a complex pattern of cycling that defies simple forecasting techniques. (4) In the Border Lakes region of Ontario and Minnesota, where the two insect species coexist in a mixedwood landscape of hardwood and conifers, outbreak cycle intensity in each species varies spatially and temporally in response to host forest landscape structure. Much attention has been given to the effect of top-down agents in driving synchronizable population cycles. However, foliage loss, tree death, and forest succession at stem, stand, and landscape scales affect larval and adult dispersal success, and may serve to override regulatory processes that cause otherwise top-down-driven periodic, synchronized, and predictable population oscillations to become aperiodic, asynchronous, and unpredictable. Incorporating bottom-up effects at multiple spatial and temporal scales may be the key to making significant improvements in forest insect outbreak forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Defoliators cause extensive damage in boreal and temperate forests of the world. Considerable effort has been invested to understand their individual population dynamics, and despite ample theorising, there is little empirical evidence on factors causing spatial synchrony of pest eruptions at landscape scales.We report on the landscape‐level effect of forest configuration and composition on the intensity of outbreaks of spruce budworm and forest tent caterpillar in a mixedwood boreal forest in northern Minnesota (USA) and adjacent Ontario (Canada), and how this is related to the degree of spatial synchrony in each species' outbreak cycling.Using a large spatiotemporal tree‐ring reconstruction of outbreak impacts across these two systems, we evaluate two contrasting theories governing defoliator outbreaks: harmonic oscillation (a.k.a. 'clockwork') and relaxation oscillation (a.k.a. 'catastrophe'), each with consequences linked to top‐down versus bottom‐up influences on outbreak behaviour in time and space.We find synchrony varies temporally, among outbreak cycles and in direct proportion to cycle peak intensity; however, cycle peak intensities are distributed bimodally in time, and so, therefore, are synchrony coefficients. Spatially, the area where each pest species currently cycles with the greatest peak intensity and synchrony is where their preferred host trees are currently found in greatest proportion.Despite overall synchrony in cycling, we found, in both systems, a persistent negative spatial correlation among successive eruptive pulses of defoliation. Many of these eruptions failed to spread spatially and to coalesce with other spot eruptions to form extensive area‐wide outbreaks. Eruptions often fail to spread at the hardwood‐conifer interface, resulting in outbreak pulses that systematically bounce back and forth between landscape types, particularly when systems were cycling at low amplitude. These over‐dispersed spatial patterns of pulse impact are consistent with a contagious theory of eruption and outbreak spread. They could be considered consistent with harmonic oscillation theory only for populations cycling at different frequencies, with cycling frequency determined by host forest landscape structure.Synthesis. We find that defoliator outbreak dynamics across systems include spatiotemporal signatures of each theoretical paradigm—suggesting a hybrid approach will better characterise outbreak behaviour. Host concentration influences which paradigm dominates the spatial dynamics in any given forest landscape context. Because of the synchronising effect of host concentration on forest insect spatial dynamics, mixedwoods appear to be less prone to intense, synchronised defoliator attack than forests of pure hardwood or pure conifer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscape‐level forest management has long been hypothesized to affect forest insect outbreak dynamics, but empirical evidence remains elusive. We hypothesized that the combination of increased hardwood relative to host tree species, prevalence of younger forests, and fragmentation of those forests due to forest harvesting legacies would reduce outbreak intensity, increase outbreak frequency, and decrease spatial synchrony in spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana outbreaks. We investigated these hypotheses using tree ring samples collected across 51 sites pooled into 16 subareas distributed across a large ecoregion spanning the international border between Ontario (Canada), and Minnesota (USA). This ecoregion contains contrasting land management zones with clear differences in forest landscape structure (i.e. forest composition and spatial configuration) while minimizing the confounding influence of climate. Cluster analyses of the 76‐yr time‐series generally grouped by subareas found within the same land management zone. Spatial nonparametric covariance analysis indicated that the highest and lowest degree of spatial synchrony of spruce budworm outbreaks were found within unmanaged wilderness and lands managed at fine spatial scales in Minnesota, respectively. Using multivariate analysis, we also found that forest composition, configuration, and climate together accounted for a total of 40% of the variance in outbreak chronologies, with a high level of shared variance between composition and configuration (13%) and between composition and climate (9%). At the scale of our study, climate on its own did not explain any of the spatial variation in outbreaks. Outbreaks were of higher frequency, lower intensity, and less spatially synchronized in more fragmented, younger forests with a lower proportion of host species, with opposing outbreak characteristics observed in regions characterised by older forests with more concentrated host species. Our study is the first quantitative evaluation of the long‐standing ‘silvicultural hypothesis’ of spruce budworm management specifically conducted at a spatio‐temporal scale for which it was intended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Management of spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.), outbreak spread requires understanding the demographic processes occurring in low, but rising populations. For the first time, detailed observations were made in the early stages of outbreak development. We sampled populations over a three-year period in both treated and untreated populations in the Lower St-Lawrence region of Quebec, Canada, and measured the density-dependence of survival and population growth rates, and the impact of natural enemies and insecticides. Insecticides tested were Bacillus thuringiensis (Berliner 1915) and tebufenozide. We recorded strong density-dependence of survival between early larval stages and adult emergence, explained largely by the variation of natural enemy impacts and overcrowding. We also observed inverse density-dependence of apparent fecundity: net immigration into lower-density populations and net emigration from the higher, linked to a threshold of ~25% defoliation. Because of high migration rates, none of the 2013 treatments reduced egg populations at the end of summer. However lower migration activity in 2014 allowed population growth to be reduced in treated plots. This evidence lends support to the conclusion that, for a budworm population to increase to outbreak density, it must be elevated via external perturbations, such as immigration, above a threshold density of ~4 larvae per branch tip (L4). Once a population has increased beyond this threshold, it can continue growing and itself become a source of further spread by moth migration. These findings imply that populations can be brought down by insecticide applications to a density where mortality from natural enemies can keep the reduced population in check, barring subsequent immigration. While we recognize that other factors may occasionally cause a population to exceed the Allee threshold and reach outbreak level, the preponderance of immigration implies that if all potential sources of significant numbers of moths are reduced on a regional scale by insecticide applications, a widespread outbreak can be prevented, stopped or slowed down by reducing the supply of migrating moths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]