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Microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) affects the fate and storage of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems, but its global importance remains uncertain. Accurately modeling and predicting CUE on a global scale is challenging due to inconsistencies in measurement techniques and the complex interactions of climatic, edaphic, and biological factors across scales. The link between microbial CUE and soil organic carbon relies on the stabilization of microbial necromass within soil aggregates or its association with minerals, necessitating an integration of microbial and stabilization processes in modeling approaches. In this perspective, we propose a comprehensive framework that integrates diverse data sources, ranging from genomic information to traditional soil carbon assessments, to refine carbon cycle models by incorporating variations in CUE, thereby enhancing our understanding of the microbial contribution to carbon cycling.

Natural gas is the primary fuel used in U.S. residences, yet little is known about its consumption patterns and drivers. We use daily county-level gas consumption data to assess the spatial patterns of the relationships and the sensitivities of gas consumption to outdoor air temperature across U.S. households. We fitted linear-plus-plateau functions to daily gas consumption data in 1000 counties, and derived two key coefficients: the heating temperature threshold (Tcrit) and the gas consumption rate change per 1°C temperature drop (Slope). We identified the main predictors of Tcrit and Slope (like income, employment rate, and building type) using interpretable machine learning models built on census data. Finally, we estimated a potential 2.47 million MtCO2 annual emission reduction in U.S. residences by gas savings due to household insulation improvements and hypothetical behavioral change toward reduced consumption by adopting a 1°C lower Tcrit than the current value.

Although substantial advances in predicting the ecological impacts of global change have been made, predictions of the evolutionary impacts have lagged behind. In soil ecosystems, microbes act as the primary energetic drivers of carbon cycling; however, microbes are also capable of evolving on timescales comparable to rates of global change. Given the importance of soil ecosystems in global carbon cycling, we assess the potential impact of microbial evolution on carbon-climate feedbacks in this system. We begin by reviewing the current state of knowledge concerning microbial evolution in response to global change and its specific effect on soil carbon dynamics. Through this integration, we synthesize a roadmap detailing how to integrate microbial evolution into ecosystem biogeochemical models. Specifically, we highlight the importance of microscale mechanistic soil carbon models, including choosing an appropriate evolutionary model (e.g., adaptive dynamics, quantitative genetics), validating model predictions with 'omics' and experimental data, scaling microbial adaptations to ecosystem level processes, and validating with ecosystem-scale measurements. The proposed steps will require significant investment of scientific resources and might require 10-20 years to be fully implemented. However, through the application of multi-scale integrated approaches, we will advance the integration of microbial evolution into predictive understanding of ecosystems, providing clarity on its role and impact within the broader context of environmental change.

Abstract Landscape fragmentation is statistically correlated with both increases and decreases in wildfire burned area (BA). These different directions-of-impact are not mechanistically understood. Here, road density, a land fragmentation proxy, is implemented in a CMIP6 coupled land-fire model, to represent fragmentation edge effects on fire-relevant environmental variables. Fragmentation caused modelled BA changes of over ±10% in 16% of [0.5°] grid-cells. On average, more fragmentation decreased net BA globally (−1.5%), as estimated empirically. However, in recently-deforested tropical areas, fragmentation drove observationally-consistent BA increases of over 20%. Globally, fragmentation-driven fire BA decreased with increasing population density, but was a hump-shaped function of it in forests. In some areas, fragmentation-driven decreases in BA occurred alongside higher-intensity fires, suggesting the decoupling of fire severity traits. This mechanistic model provides a starting point for quantifying policy-relevant fragmentation-fire impacts, whose results suggest future forest degradation may shift fragmentation from net global fire inhibitor to net fire driver.

To effectively monitor highly heterogeneous urban CO2 emissions using atmospheric observations, there is a need to deploy cost-effective CO2 sensors at multiple locations within the city with sufficient accuracy to capture the concentration gradients in urban environments. These dense measurements could be used as input of an atmospheric inversion system for the quantification of emissions at the sub-city scale or to separate specific sectors. Such quantification would offer valuable insights into the efficacy of local initiatives and could also identify unknown emission hotspots that require attention. Here we present the development and evaluation of a mid-cost CO2 instrument designed for continuous monitoring of atmospheric CO2 concentrations with a target accuracy of 1 ppm for hourly mean measurements. We assess the sensor sensitivity in relation to environmental factors such as humidity, pressure, temperature and CO2 signal, which leads to the development of an effective calibration algorithm. Since July 2020, eight mid-cost instruments have been installed within the city of Paris and its vicinity to provide continuous CO2 measurements, complementing the seven high-precision cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS) stations that have been in operation since 2016. A data processing system, called CO2calqual, has been implemented to automatically handle data quality control, calibration and storage, which enables the management of extensive real-time CO2 measurements from the monitoring network. Colocation assessments with the high-precision instrument show that the accuracies of the eight mid-cost instruments are within the range of 1.0 to 2.4 ppm for hourly afternoon (12:00–17:00 UTC) measurements. The long-term stability issues require manual data checks and instrument maintenance. The analyses show that CO2 measurements can provide evidence for underestimations of CO2 emissions in the Paris region and a lack of several emission point sources in the emission inventory. Our study demonstrates promising prospects for integrating mid-cost measurements along with high-precision data into the subsequent atmospheric inverse modeling to improve the accuracy of quantifying the fine-scale CO2 emissions in the Paris metropolitan area.

Lentic waters are biogeochemical reactors, producing and receiving carbon (C) originally fixed by the terrestrial and aquatic biosphere, which is then buried in sediments or respired back to the atmosphere in the forms of carbon dioxide (CO2) and one of the more potent greenhouse gas (GHG) methane (CH4). Additionally, lakes serve as archives of terrestrial and aquatic carbon processes within their sediments, enabling the reconstruction of historical changes spanning thousands of years. These changes encompass alterations in land cover, indicated by pollen records, soil carbon erosion and shifts in lake productivity resulting from changes in land use and climate. Both the burial of C in lakes and the emissions of GHGs are recognised as important components of Earth's climate system, yet they remain poorly understood and constrained due to inadequate quantities and qualities of observations. In the case of GHG emissions from lakes, observations are often sporadic, failing to capture the significant spatial and temporal variations in emissions across diverse lentic systems. To address this challenge, process-based models that incorporate the interconnected biogeochemical processes occurring within lakes and their watersheds would arguably be the best tool to extrapolate from site-level observations to regional and finally global scales, to quantify the anthropogenic impact on these fluxes and to reconstruct long-term shifts in emissions and burial due to changes in land cover and climate. However, the development and evaluation of such models is hampered by the lack of observations in sufficient quality. In this project, we bring together a unique consortium of specialists in aquatic ecology, biogeochemistry, palynology, sedimentology and modelling of terrestrial and aquatic biogeochemistry. This project will put forth a national programme of systematic, long-term observations of lake GHG and C cycling processes of unmet detail, consistency and quality. First, at 40 pilot sites spanning typological and environmental gradients, there will be a comprehensive data acquisition endeavour to evaluate biological processes and mesological factors influencing the sequestration or recycling of organic carbon. This effort will be complemented with a synthesis of existing data (WP1). Second, based on well-dated sediment records, which include both newly-acquired and synthesised existing data, variability of lake C burial and their climate and land-use controls will be reconstructed over the past 150 years (WP2). For 15 of these pilot sites, reconstruction will go back until the mid-Holocene (5,000 years BP), allowing us to shed light on the anthropogenic perturbation of the C cycle in this earlier part of human history, which is commonly excluded from this type of research due to lack of information. The activities of these first two WPs will result in an open-source national database, guaranteeing valorisation of our research far beyond this project. In WP3, we will use the land surface model (LSM) ORCHIDEE C-lateral to assess C cycling in the terrestrial biosphere and the mobilisation of biospheric C into lakes, which is possible due to an explicit representation of soil C leaching and erosion processes and a downscaling scheme permitting us to assess C exports from watersheds at sub-grid scale. While LSMs are used to assess evolution of biospheric C budgets from the beginning of the Industrial Period, we will use it to hindcast the evolution since the mid-Holocene, using lake sediment records for model validation. Moreover, we will develop a new process-based lake C model supported by the database established in WPs 1 and 2, which we will couple to ORCHIDEE C-lateral to simulate lake C burial and GHG emissions in response to climate and processes in the lake watershed. This model set-up will first be used to better constrain contemporary large-scale lake GHG emissions and to disentangle the anthropogenic perturbation of these fluxes from the natural background flux. These estimates will be revolutionary, as they will allow attributing part of lake GHG emissions to anthropogenic emissions for national GHG budget reporting. Then, these models will be emulated to reconstruct evolution of lake GHG budgets and C budgets of the whole lake watershed since the mid-Holocene. While simulations will first be performed at the scales of France and Europe, the development of international partnerships to implement observations from other biomes (WP4) will finally support simulations at the global scale.

Abstract Microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) affects the fate and storage of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems, but its global importance remains uncertain. Accurately modeling and predicting CUE on a global scale is challenging due to inconsistencies in measurement techniques and the complex interactions of climatic, edaphic, and biological factors across scales. The link between microbial CUE and soil organic carbon relies on the stabilization of microbial necromass within soil aggregates or its association with minerals, necessitating an integration of microbial and stabilization processes in modeling approaches. In this perspective, we propose a comprehensive framework that integrates diverse data sources, ranging from genomic information to traditional soil carbon assessments, to refine carbon cycle models by incorporating variations in CUE, thereby enhancing our understanding of the microbial contribution to carbon cycling.

Land-use change (LUC) impacts biospheric carbon, encompassing biomass carbon and soil organic carbon (SOC). Despite the use of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) in estimating the anthropogenic perturbation of biospheric carbon stocks, critical evaluations of model performance concerning LUC impacts are scarce. Here, we present a systematic evaluation of the performance of the DGVM Organising Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) in reproducing observed LUC impacts on biospheric carbon stocks over Europe. First, we compare model predictions with observation-based gridded estimates of net and gross primary productivity (NPP and GPP), biomass growth patterns, and SOC stocks. Second, we evaluate the predicted response of soil carbon stocks to LUC based on data from forest inventories, paired plots, chronosequences, and repeated sampling designs. Third, we use interpretable machine learning to identify factors contributing to discrepancies between simulations and observations, including drivers and processes not resolved in ORCHIDEE (e.g. erosion, soil fertility). Results indicate agreement between the model and observed spatial patterns and temporal trends, such as the increase in biomass with age, when simulating biosphere carbon stocks. The direction of the SOC responses to LUC generally aligns between simulated and observed data. However, the model underestimates carbon gains for cropland-to-grassland conversions and carbon losses for grassland-to-cropland and forest-to-cropland conversions. These discrepancies are attributed to bias arising from soil erosion rate, which is not fully captured in ORCHIDEE. Our study provides an oriented benchmark for assessing the DGVMs against observations and explores their potential in studying the impact of LUCs on SOC stocks.

Abstract Vegetation growth may adapt to climate warming by adjusting the relationship between photosynthetic capacity and temperature. However, changes in the optimal temperature for ecosystem productivity during recent decades of warming remain uncertain. Here we provide empirical evidence that global optimal temperature increased at a rate of 0.017 ± 0.002 °C y−1 from 1982 to 2016, using multiple datasets of satellite-derived productivity and climate variables. Model simulations show that the optimal temperature will increase by 0.027 ± 0.001 °C y−1 until the end of 21st century. The global increasing optimal temperature is consistent with increasing mean air temperatures and model simulations further confirm the key role of temperature in regulating changes in optimal temperature, while being co-regulated by other factors, such as CO2 and precipitation. These results suggest that vegetation is acclimating to warming and that the negative impacts of climate change on ecosystem productivity may be less severe than previously thought.

Abstract Alleviating water scarcity is at the core of Sustainable Development Goal 6. Yet the timing of water scarcity in its onset and possible relief in different regions of the world due to climate change and changing human population dynamics remains poorly investigated. Here we assess the timing of the first emergence of water scarcity (FirstWS) and disappearance of water scarcity (EndWS), by using ensembles of simulations with six Global Hydrological Models under two representative concentration pathways (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP6.0) combined with two shared socioeconomic pathways (i.e., SSP2, SSP3) for 1901–2090. Historically (1901–2020), FirstWS occurred predominantly in Asia (e.g., China and India) and Africa (e.g., East Africa); the peak time of emerging water scarcity began around the 1980s. Under all the four future RCPs-SSPs scenarios (2021–2090), FirstWS will likely occur mainly in some regions of Africa, for which the newly added area is double that in Asia. On the other hand, EndWS will mostly occur in China after 2050, primarily due to the projected declining population. We, therefore, call for specific attention and effort to adapt to the looming water scarcity in Africa.

Abstract Global impervious surface area (ISA) has more than doubled over the last three decades, but the associated carbon emissions resulting from the depletion of pre-existing land carbon stores remain unknown. Here, we report that the carbon losses from biomass and top soil (0–30 cm) due to global ISA expansion reached 46–75 Tg C per year over 1993–2018, accounting for 3.7–6.0% of the concurrent human land-use change emissions. For the Annex I countries of UNFCCC, our estimated emissions are comparable to the carbon emissions arising from settlement expansion as reported by the national greenhouse gas inventories, providing independent validation of this kind. The contrast between growing emissions in non-Annex I countries and declining ones in Annex I countries over the study period can be explained by an observed emerging pattern of emissions evolution dependent on the economic development stage. Our study has implications for international carbon accounting and climate mitigation as it reveals previously ignored but substantial contributions of ISA expansion to anthropogenic carbon emissions through land-use effects.

Fugitive methane (CH4) emissions occur in the whole chain of oil and gas production, including from extraction, transportation, storage, and distribution. Such emissions are usually detected and quantified by conducting surveys as close as possible to the source location. However, these surveys are labour-intensive, are costly, and fail to not provide continuous emissions monitoring. The deployment of permanent sensor networks in the vicinity of industrial CH4 emitting facilities would overcome the limitations of surveys by providing accurate emission estimates, thanks to continuous sampling of emission plumes. Yet high-precision instruments are too costly to deploy in such networks. Low-cost sensors using a metal oxide semiconductor (MOS) are presented as a cheap alternative for such deployments due to their compact dimensions and to their sensitivity to CH4. In this study, we demonstrate the ability of two types of MOS sensors (TGS 2611-C00 and TGS 2611-E00) manufactured by Figaro® to reconstruct a CH4 signal, as measured by a high-precision reference gas analyser, during a 7 d controlled release campaign conducted by TotalEnergies® in autumn 2019 near Pau, France. We propose a baseline voltage correction linked to atmospheric CH4 background variations per instrument based on an iterative comparison of neighbouring observations, i.e. data points. Two CH4 mole fraction reconstruction models were compared: multilayer perceptron (MLP) and second-degree polynomial. Emission estimates were then computed using an inversion approach based on the adjoint of a Gaussian dispersion model. Despite obtaining emission estimates comparable with those obtained using high-precision instruments (average emission rate error of 25 % and average location error of 9.5 m), the application of these emission estimates is limited to adequate environmental conditions. Emission estimates are also influenced by model errors in the inversion process.

Biochar (BC) application to croplands aims to sequester carbon and improve soil quality, but its impact on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is not represented in most land models used for assessing land-based climate change mitigation; therefore, we are unable to quantify the effects of biochar application under different climate or land management conditions. Here, to fill this gap, we implement a submodel to represent biochar in a microbial decomposition model named MIMICS (MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization). We first calibrate and validate MIMICS with new representations of the density-dependent microbial turnover rate, adsorption of available organic carbon on mineral soil particles, and soil moisture effects on decomposition using global field-measured cropland SOC at 285 sites. We further integrate biochar in MIMICS by accounting for its effect on microbial decomposition and SOC sorption/desorption and optimize two biochar-related parameters in these processes using 134 paired SOC measurements with and without biochar addition. The MIMICS-biochar version can generally reproduce the short-term (≤ 6 years) and long-term (8 years) SOC changes after adding (mean addition rate of 25.6 t ha−1) biochar (R2= 0.79 and 0.97, respectively) with a low root-mean-square error (RMSE = 3.73 and 6.08 g kg−1, respectively). Our study incorporates sorption and soil moisture processes into MIMICS and extends its capacity to simulate biochar decomposition, providing a useful tool to couple with dynamic land models to evaluate the effectiveness of biochar application with respect to removing CO2 from the atmosphere.

The surface energy budget plays a critical role in terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical cycles. Nevertheless, its highly spatial heterogeneity across different vegetation types is still missing in the ORCHIDEE-MICT (ORganizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic EcosystEms–aMeliorated Interactions between Carbon and Temperature) land surface model. In this study, we describe the representation of a tiling energy budget in ORCHIDEE-MICT and assess its short-term and long-term impacts on energy, hydrology, and carbon processes. With the specific values of surface properties for each vegetation type, the new version presents warmer surface and soil temperatures (∼ 0.5 °C, +3 %), wetter soil moisture (∼ 10 kg m−2, +2 %), and increased soil organic carbon storage (∼ 170 Pg C, +9 %) across the Northern Hemisphere. Despite reproducing the absolute values and spatial gradients of surface and soil temperatures from satellite and in situ observations, the considerable uncertainties in simulated soil organic carbon and hydrological processes prevent an obvious improvement in the temperature bias existing in the original ORCHIDEE-MICT model. However, the separation of sub-grid energy budgets in the new version improves permafrost simulation greatly by accounting for the presence of discontinuous permafrost types (∼ 3×106 km2), which will facilitate various permafrost-related studies in the future.

The Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in global carbon storage, but a minor destabilization of these forests could result in considerable carbon loss. Among the external factors affecting vegetation, elevated CO2 (eCO2) levels have long been anticipated to have positive impacts on vegetation, including the direct enhancement of both photosynthesis and productivity and increasing water use efficiency. However, the overall impact of eCO2 on the net carbon balance, especially concerning tree-mortality-induced carbon loss and recovery following extreme drought events, has remained elusive. Here, we use a process-based model that couples physiological CO2 effects with demography and both drought mortality and resistance processes. The model was previously calibrated to reproduce observed drought responses of Amazon forest sites. The model results, based on factorial simulations with and without eCO2, reveal that eCO2 enhances forest growth and promotes competition between trees, leading to more natural self-thinning of forest stands. This occurs following a growth–mortality trade-off response, although the growth outweighs the tree loss. Additionally, eCO2 provides water-saving benefits, reducing the risk of tree mortality during drought episodes. However, extra carbon losses could still occur due to an eCO2-induced increase in background biomass density, leading to “more carbon available to lose” when severe droughts happen. Furthermore, we found that eCO2 accelerates drought recovery and enhances drought resistance and resilience. By delving into the less-explored aspect of tree mortality response to eCO2, the model improvements advance our understanding of how carbon balance responds to eCO2, particularly regarding mechanisms of continuous competition-induced carbon loss vs. pulses of drought-induced carbon loss. These findings provide valuable insights into the intricate ways in which rising CO2 influences forest carbon dynamics and vulnerability, offering a critical understanding of the Amazon rainforest's evolution amidst more frequent and intense extreme climate events.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a long-lived potent greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone-depleting substance that has been accumulating in the atmosphere since the preindustrial period. The mole fraction of atmospheric N2O has increased by nearly 25 % from 270 ppb (parts per billion) in 1750 to 336 ppb in 2022, with the fastest annual growth rate since 1980 of more than 1.3 ppb yr−1 in both 2020 and 2021. According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6), the relative contribution of N2O to the total enhanced effective radiative forcing of greenhouse gases was 6.4 % for 1750–2022. As a core component of our global greenhouse gas assessments coordinated by the Global Carbon Project (GCP), our global N2O budget incorporates both natural and anthropogenic sources and sinks and accounts for the interactions between nitrogen additions and the biogeochemical processes that control N2O emissions. We use bottom-up (BU: inventory, statistical extrapolation of flux measurements, and process-based land and ocean modeling) and top-down (TD: atmospheric measurement-based inversion) approaches. We provide a comprehensive quantification of global N2O sources and sinks in 21 natural and anthropogenic categories in 18 regions between 1980 and 2020. We estimate that total annual anthropogenic N2O emissions have increased 40 % (or 1.9 Tg N yr−1) in the past 4 decades (1980–2020). Direct agricultural emissions in 2020 (3.9 Tg N yr−1, best estimate) represent the large majority of anthropogenic emissions, followed by other direct anthropogenic sources, including fossil fuel and industry, waste and wastewater, and biomass burning (2.1 Tg N yr−1), and indirect anthropogenic sources (1.3 Tg N yr−1) . For the year 2020, our best estimate of total BU emissions for natural and anthropogenic sources was 18.5 (lower–upper bounds: 10.6–27.0) Tg N yr−1, close to our TD estimate of 17.0 (16.6–17.4) Tg N yr−1. For the 2010–2019 period, the annual BU decadal-average emissions for both natural and anthropogenic sources were 18.2 (10.6–25.9) Tg N yr−1 and TD emissions were 17.4 (15.8–19.20) Tg N yr−1. The once top emitter Europe has reduced its emissions by 31 % since the 1980s, while those of emerging economies have grown, making China the top emitter since the 2010s. The observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded projected levels under all scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions. To evaluate mitigation efforts and contribute to the Global Stocktake of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, we propose the establishment of a global network for monitoring and modeling N2O from the surface through to the stratosphere. The data presented in this work can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/RQ8P-2Z4R (Tian et al., 2023).

Abstract During extensive periods without rain, known as dry-downs, decreasing soil moisture (SM) induces plant water stress at the point when it limits evapotranspiration, defining a critical SM threshold (θcrit). Better quantification of θcrit is needed for improving future projections of climate and water resources, food production, and ecosystem vulnerability. Here, we combine systematic satellite observations of the diurnal amplitude of land surface temperature (dLST) and SM during dry-downs, corroborated by in-situ data from flux towers, to generate the observation-based global map of θcrit. We find an average global θcrit of 0.19 m3/m3, varying from 0.12 m3/m3 in arid ecosystems to 0.26 m3/m3 in humid ecosystems. θcrit simulated by Earth System Models is overestimated in dry areas and underestimated in wet areas. The global observed pattern of θcrit reflects plant adaptation to soil available water and atmospheric demand. Using explainable machine learning, we show that aridity index, leaf area and soil texture are the most influential drivers. Moreover, we show that the annual fraction of days with water stress, when SM stays below θcrit, has increased in the past four decades. Our results have important implications for understanding the inception of water stress in models and identifying SM tipping points.

Permafrost-affected ecosystems are subject to warming and thawing, which can increase the availability of subsurface nitrogen (N) with consequences in otherwise N-limited tundra and alpine vegetation. Here, we quantify the extent of warming and permafrost thawing and the corresponding effects on nitrogen availability and plant growth based on a 20-year survey across 14 sites on the Tibetan Plateau. The survey showed that most sites have been subject to warming and thawing and that the upper permafrost zone across all sites was rich in inorganic N, mainly as ammonium. We further explore the efficiency of plants to utilize 15N-labelled inorganic N over five years following 15N addition at the permafrost table far below the main root zone. The 15N experiment showed that deep-rooted plant species were able to utilize the labelled N. A SEM model suggests that changes in vegetation can be explained by both active layer warming and permafrost thawing and the associated changes in inorganic nitrogen availability. Our results highlight a feedback mechanism of climate warming, in which released plant-available N may favour deep-rooted plants. This can explain important changes in plant composition and growth across the sites on the Tibetan Plateau.

Soils store more carbon than other terrestrial ecosystems1,2. How soil organic carbon (SOC) forms and persists remains uncertain1,3, which makes it challenging to understand how it will respond to climatic change3,4. It has been suggested that soil microorganisms play an important role in SOC formation, preservation and loss5-7. Although microorganisms affect the accumulation and loss of soil organic matter through many pathways4,6,8-11, microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) is an integrative metric that can capture the balance of these processes12,13. Although CUE has the potential to act as a predictor of variation in SOC storage, the role of CUE in SOC persistence remains unresolved7,14,15. Here we examine the relationship between CUE and the preservation of SOC, and interactions with climate, vegetation and edaphic properties, using a combination of global-scale datasets, a microbial-process explicit model, data assimilation, deep learning and meta-analysis. We find that CUE is at least four times as important as other evaluated factors, such as carbon input, decomposition or vertical transport, in determining SOC storage and its spatial variation across the globe. In addition, CUE shows a positive correlation with SOC content. Our findings point to microbial CUE as a major determinant of global SOC storage. Understanding the microbial processes underlying CUE and their environmental dependence may help the prediction of SOC feedback to a changing climate.

Terrestrial ecosystems have taken up about 32% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the past six decades1. Large uncertainties in terrestrial carbon-climate feedbacks, however, make it difficult to predict how the land carbon sink will respond to future climate change2. Interannual variations in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) are dominated by land-atmosphere carbon fluxes in the tropics, providing an opportunity to explore land carbon-climate interactions3-6. It is thought that variations in CGR are largely controlled by temperature7-10 but there is also evidence for a tight coupling between water availability and CGR11. Here, we use a record of global atmospheric CO2, terrestrial water storage and precipitation data to investigate changes in the interannual relationship between tropical land climate conditions and CGR under a changing climate. We find that the interannual relationship between tropical water availability and CGR became increasingly negative during 1989-2018 compared to 1960-1989. This could be related to spatiotemporal changes in tropical water availability anomalies driven by shifts in El Niño/Southern Oscillation teleconnections, including declining spatial compensatory water effects9. We also demonstrate that most state-of-the-art coupled Earth System and Land Surface models do not reproduce the intensifying water-carbon coupling. Our results indicate that tropical water availability is increasingly controlling the interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle and modulating tropical terrestrial carbon-climate feedbacks.

With the urgent need to implement the EU countries pledges and to monitor the effectiveness of Green Deal plan, Monitoring Reporting and Verification tools are needed to track how emissions are changing for all the sectors. Current official inventories only provide annual estimates of national CO2 emissions with a lag of 1+ year which do not capture the variations of emissions due to recent shocks including COVID lockdowns and economic rebounds, war in Ukraine. Here we present a near-real-time country-level dataset of daily fossil fuel and cement emissions from January 2019 through December 2021 for 27 EU countries and UK, which called Carbon Monitor Europe. The data are calculated separately for six sectors: power, industry, ground transportation, domestic aviation, international aviation and residential. Daily CO2 emissions are estimated from a large set of activity data compiled from different sources. The goal of this dataset is to improve the timeliness and temporal resolution of emissions for European countries, to inform the public and decision makers about current emissions changes in Europe.

Abstract The carbon sink in pantropical biomes play a crucial role in modulating the inter‐annual variations of global terrestrial carbon balance and is threatened by extreme climate events. However, it has not been carefully examined whether an increase in tropical gross primary productivity (GPP) can compensate the decrease during precipitation anomalies. Using the asymmetry index (AI) and multiple GPP products, we assessed responses of pantropical GPP to precipitation anomalies during 2001–2022. Positive AI indicates that GPP increases are greater than GPP decreases during precipitation anomalies, and vice versa. Our results showed an average negative pantropical GPP asymmetry, that is, GPP decreases exceeded the GPP increases during precipitation anomalies. In addition, a positive AI was found in tropical hyper‐arid and arid regions, which is opposite to the negative AI observed in tropical semi‐arid, sub‐humid, and humid regions. This suggest that tropical GPP asymmetry changes from positive to negative as the moisture increases. Notably, a significant decreasing trend of negative AI was observed over the entire tropical region, indicating that the negative effect of inter‐annual precipitation variations on pantropical vegetation productivity has enhanced. Considering the model predicted increasing climate variability and extremes, the negative impact of precipitation variability on tropical carbon cycle may continue to intensify. Lastly, the divergence in AI estimates among multiple GPP products highlight the need to further improve our understanding of the response of tropical carbon cycle to climate changes, especially for the tropical humid regions.