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Estimating biodiversity change across the planet in the context of widespread human modification is a critical challenge. Here, we review how biodiversity has changed in recent decades across scales and taxonomic groups, focusing on four diversity metrics: species richness, temporal turnover, spatial beta-diversity and abundance. At local scales, change across all metrics includes many examples of both increases and declines and tends to be centred around zero, but with higher prevalence of declining trends in beta-diversity (increasing similarity in composition across space or biotic homogenization) and abundance. The exception to this pattern is temporal turnover, with changes in species composition through time observed in most local assemblages. Less is known about change at regional scales, although several studies suggest that increases in richness are more prevalent than declines. Change at the global scale is the hardest to estimate accurately, but most studies suggest extinction rates are probably outpacing speciation rates, although both are elevated. Recognizing this variability is essential to accurately portray how biodiversity change is unfolding, and highlights how much remains unknown about the magnitude and direction of multiple biodiversity metrics at different scales. Reducing these blind spots is essential to allow appropriate management actions to be deployed. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions’.

Mammals have experienced high levels of human-mediated extirpations but have also been widely introduced to new locations, and some have recovered from historic persecution. Both of these processes-losses and gains-have resulted in concern about functional losses and changes in ecological communities as new ecological states develop. The question of whether species turnover inevitably leads to declines in functional and phylogenetic diversity depends, however, on the traits and phylogenetic distinctiveness of the species that are lost, gained, or regained. Comparing ~8000 years ago with the last century, we show that extirpations and range retractions have indeed reduced the functional and phylogenetic diversity of mammals in most European regions (countries and island groups), but species recoveries and the introduction of non-native species have increased functional and phylogenetic diversity by equivalent or greater amounts in many regions. Overall, across Europe, species richness increased in 41 regions over the last 8000 years and declined in 1; phylogenetic diversity increased in 33 and declined in 12, while functional diversity results showed 20 increases and 25 decreases. The balance of losses (extirpations) and gains (introductions, range expansions) has, however, led to net increases in functional diversity on many islands, where the original diversity was low, and across most of western Europe. Historically extirpated mega- and mesofaunal species have recolonized or been reintroduced to many European regions, contributing to recent functional and phylogenetic diversity recovery. If conservation rewilding projects continue to reintroduce regionally extirpated species and domestic descendants of "extinct" species to provide replacement grazing, browsing, and predation, there is potential to generate net functional and phylogenetic diversity gains (relative to 8000 years ago) in most European regions.

Aim Climatic changes throughout the Pleistocene have strongly modified species distributions. We examine how these range shifts have affected the genetic diversity of a montane butterfly species and whether the genetic diversity in the extant populations is threatened by future climate change. Location Europe. Taxon Erebia epiphron Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae. Methods We analyzed mtDNA to map current genetic diversity and differentiation of E. epiphron across Europe to identify population refugia and postglacial range shifts. We used species distribution modeling (SDM) to hindcast distributions over the last 21,000 years to identify source locations of extant populations and to project distributions into the future (2070) to predict potential losses in genetic diversity. Results We found substantial genetic diversity unique to specific regions within Europe (total number of haplotypes = 31, number of unique haplotypes = 27, H d = 0.9). Genetic data and SDM hindcasting suggest long‐term separation and survival of discrete populations. Particularly, high rates of unique diversity in postglacially colonized sites in England (H d = 0.64) suggest this population was colonized from a now extinct cryptic refugium. Under future climate change, SDMs predict loss of climate suitability for E. epiphron, particularly at lower elevations (, The genetic diversification of cold‐adapted mountain species, such as E. epiphron, has been shaped by Pleistocene glaciations, resulting in unique genetic diversity in isolated populations. The unique genetic diversity in mountain and cold‐adapted species is at under future climate warming, and we predict E. epiphron will lose 38%–64% of its range in the future, resulting in the loss of genetic diversity, reducing its ability to adapt.

Steep insect biomass declines ('insectageddon') have been widely reported, despite a lack of continuously collected biomass data from replicated long-term monitoring sites. Such severe declines are not supported by the world's longest running insect population database: annual moth biomass estimates from British fixed monitoring sites revealed increasing biomass between 1967 and 1982, followed by gradual decline from 1982 to 2017, with a 2.2-fold net gain in mean biomass between the first (1967-1976) and last decades (2008-2017) of monitoring. High between-year variability and multi-year periodicity in biomass emphasize the need for long-term data to detect trends and identify their causes robustly.

Range shifting is vital for species persistence, but there is little consensus on why individual species vary so greatly in the rates at which their ranges have shifted in response to recent climate warming. Here, using 40 years of distribution data for 291 species from 13 invertebrate taxa in Britain, we show that interactions between habitat availability and exposure to climate change at the range margins explain up to half of the variation in rates of range shift. Habitat generalists expanded faster than more specialised species, but this intrinsic trait explains less of the variation in range shifts than habitat availability, which additionally depends on extrinsic factors that may be rare or widespread at the range margin. Similarly, while climate change likely underlies polewards expansions, we find that more of the between-species variation is explained by differences in habitat availability than by changes in climatic suitability. A model that includes both habitat and climate, and their statistical interaction, explains the most variation in range shifts. We conclude that climate-change vulnerability assessments should focus as much on future habitat availability as on climate sensitivity and exposure, with the expectation that habitat restoration and protection will substantially improve species’ abilities to respond to uncertain future climates.

Climate change, land-use change and introductions of non-native species are key determinants of biodiversity change worldwide. However, the extent to which anthropogenic drivers of environmental change interact to affect biological communities is largely unknown, especially over longer time periods. Here, we show that plant community composition in 996 Swedish landscapes has consistently shifted to reflect the warmer and wetter climate that the region has experienced during the second half of the 20th century. Using community climatic indices, which reflect the average climatic associations of the species within each landscape at each time period, we found that species compositions in 74% of landscapes now have a higher representation of warm-associated species than they did previously, while 84% of landscapes now host more species associated with higher levels of precipitation. In addition to a warmer and wetter climate, there have also been large shifts in land use across the region, while the fraction of non-native species has increased in the majority of landscapes. Climatic warming at the landscape level appeared to favour the colonization of warm-associated species, while also potentially driving losses in cool-associated species. However, the resulting increases in community thermal means were apparently buffered by landscape simplification (reduction in habitat heterogeneity within landscapes) in the form of increased forest cover. Increases in non-native species, which generally originate from warmer climates than Sweden, were a strong driver of community-level warming. In terms of precipitation, both landscape simplification and increases in non-natives appeared to favour species associated with drier climatic conditions, to some extent counteracting the climate-driven shift towards wetter communities. Anthropogenic drivers can act both synergistically and antagonistically to determine trajectories of change in biological communities over time. Therefore, it is important to consider multiple drivers of global change when trying to understand, manage and predict biodiversity in the future.

Land-use change is widely regarded as a simplifying and homogenising force in nature. In contrast, analysing global land-use reconstructions from the 10th to 20th centuries, we found progressive increases in the number, evenness, and diversity of ecosystems (including human-modified land-use types) across the globe. Ecosystem diversity increased more rapidly after ∼1700CE, then slowed or partially reversed (depending on the metric) following the mid-20th century acceleration of human impacts. Differentiation also generally increased across space, with homogenization only evident in the presence-absence analysis of ecosystem types at the global scale. Our results suggest that human land-use changes have primarily driven increases in ecosystem diversity over the last millennium.

Illegal hunting is a persistent problem in many protected areas, but an overview of the extent of this problem and its impact on wildlife is lacking. We reviewed 40 years (1980–2020) of global research to examine the spatial distribution of research and socio-ecological factors influencing population decline within protected areas under illegal hunting pressure. From 81 papers reporting 988 species/site combinations, 294 mammal species were reported to have been illegally hunted from 155 protected areas across 48 countries. Research in illegal hunting has increased substantially during the review period and showed biases towards strictly protected areas and the African continent. Population declines were most frequent in countries with a low human development index, particularly in strict protected areas and for species with a body mass over 100 kg. Our results provide evidence that illegal hunting is most likely to cause declines of large-bodied species in protected areas of resource-poor countries regardless of protected area conservation status. Given the growing pressures of illegal hunting, increased investments in people’s development and additional conservation efforts such as improving anti-poaching strategies and conservation resources in terms of improving funding and personnel directed at this problem are a growing priority.

Major environmental changes in the history of life on Earth have given rise to novel habitats, which gradually accumulate species. Human‐induced change is no exception, yet the rules governing species accumulation in anthropogenic habitats are not fully developed. Here we propose that nonnative plants introduced to Great Britain may function as analogues of novel anthropogenic habitats for insects and mites, analysing a combination of local‐scale experimental plot data and geographic‐scale data contained within the Great Britain Database of Insects and their Food Plants. We find that novel plant habitats accumulate the greatest diversity of insect taxa when they are widespread and show some resemblance to plant habitats which have been present historically (based on the relatedness between native and nonnative plant species), with insect generalists colonizing from a wider range of sources. Despite reduced per‐plant diversity, nonnative plants can support distinctive insect communities, sometimes including insect taxa that are otherwise rare or absent. Thus, novel plant habitats may contribute to, and potentially maintain, broader‐scale (assemblage) diversity in regions that contain mixtures of long‐standing and novel plant habitats., Ten per cent of insect species in a geographic‐scale insect–plant database (DBIF) are unique to nonnative plants (a—red text), and a mixed landscape composed of 1/3 neophyte plants (nonnatives arrived since 1500), 1/3 archaeophytes (nonnatives arrived before 1500) and 1/3 natives accumulates insect species at a similar rate to a native landscape (b). These results suggest that despite reduced per‐plant diversity, nonnative plants support distinctive insect communities, including taxa that are otherwise rare or absent on native plants. Thus, novel plant habitats contribute to broader‐scale (assemblage) diversity in regions that contain mixtures of long‐standing and novel plant habitats.

It is important for conservationists to be able to assess the risks that climate change poses to species, in order to inform decision making. Using standardised and repeatable methods, we present a national-scale assessment of the risks of range loss and opportunities for range expansion that climate change could pose for over 3000 plants and animals. Species were selected by their occurrence in England, the primary focus of the study, but climate change impacts were assessed across Great Britain, widening their geographical relevance. A basic risk assessment that compared projected future changes in potential range with recently observed changes classified 21% of species as being at high risk and 6% at medium risk of range loss under a B1 climate change scenario. A greater number of species were classified as having a medium (16%) or high (38%) opportunity to potentially expand their distribution. A more comprehensive assessment, incorporating additional ecological information, including potentially confounding and exacerbating factors (e.g. dispersal, habitat availability and other constraints), was applied to 402 species, of which 35% were at risk of range loss and 42% may expand their range extent. This study covers a temperate region with a significant proportion of species at their poleward range limit; the balance of risks and opportunities from climate change may be different elsewhere. The outcome of both risk assessments varied between taxonomic groups, with bryophytes and vascular plants containing the greatest proportion of species at risk from climate change. Upland habitats contained more species at risk than other habitats. Whilst the overall pattern was clear, confidence was generally low for individual assessments, with the exception of well-studied taxa such as birds. In response to climate change, nature conservation needs to plan for changing species distributions and an uncertain future.

1. Abundance data are the foundation for many ecological and conservation projects, but are only available for a few taxonomic groups. In contrast, distribution records (georeferenced presence records) are more widely available. Here we examine whether year-to-year changes in numbers of distribution records, collated over a large spatial scale, can provide a measure of species' population variability, and hence act as a metric of abundance changes. 2. We used 33 British butterfly species to test this possibility, using distribution and abundance data (transect counts) from 1976 to 2012. 3. Comparing across species, we found a strong correlation between mean year-to-year changes in total number of distribution records and mean year-to-year changes in abundance (N = 33 species; r2 = 0.66). This suggests that annual distribution data can be used to identify species with low versus high population variability. 4. For individual species, there was considerable variation in the strength of relationships between year-to-year changes in total number of distribution records and abundance. Between-year changes in abundance can be identified from distribution records most accurately for species whose populations are most variable (i.e. have high annual variation in numbers of records). 5. We conclude that year-to-year changes in distribution records can indicate overall population variability within a taxon, and are a reasonable proxy for year-to-year changes in abundance for some types of species. This finding opens up more opportunities to inform ecological and conservation studies about population variability, based on the wealth of citizen science distribution records that are available for other taxa.

Suggitt et al. reply to the concerns raised by Le Roux et al. on their original manuscript.

Illegal activities are a persistent problem in many protected areas, but an overview of the extent of this problem and its impact is lacking. We review 35 years (1980-1914) of research across the globe to examine the spatial distribution of research and socio-ecological factors influencing population decline within protected areas under illegal activities pressure. From 92 papers reporting 1048 species/site combinations, more than 350 species comprising mammals, reptiles, birds, fishes and molluscs were reported to have been extracted illegally from 146 protected areas across four continents. Research in illegal activities has increased substantially during the review period but also shows strong taxonomic and geographic biases towards large wild mammals and African continent respectively, suggesting persistent poaching pressures on wild mammals in African protected areas. Population declines were most frequent i) where there was commercial poaching as opposed to subsistence poaching alone, ii) in countries with a low human development index particularly in strict protected areas and iii) for species with a body mass over 100 kg. Habitat loss associated with greater land use change had an additional significant impact on population decline, particularly in the less-strict categories (IUCN III-VI) of protected area across the continents. Overall, these findings provide evidence that illegal activities are most likely to cause species declines of large-bodied animals in protected areas in resource-poor countries regardless of protected area conservation status (i.e. IUCN category). Given the mounting pressures of illegal activities, additional conservation effort such as improving anti-poaching strategies and conservation resources in terms of improving funding and personnel directed at this problem is a growing priority.

Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species’ life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species., Many species’ life cycles have moved earlier in the year because of climate change, but we do not know the consequences for range expansions. The authors show that these advances promote range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year, but not in species with only one.

Human activity has sent many measures of biodiversity into long-term decline, and there are suggestions that the sheer scale of this impact is sufficient to consider the modern era as a geological epoch of its own, known as “The Anthropocene” [1]. However, recent meta-analyses show that local alpha diversity is often stable or slightly increasing [2, 3, 4]. Here, we show that the local alpha diversity (species richness) of plants found in quadrats and transects has increased the most in cooler regions of the world that have experienced the highest absolute changes (i.e., changes in either direction) in climate. The greatest statistical support is for the effects of precipitation change. On average, alpha diversity declined slightly (−4.2% per decade) in the third of sites that experienced the lowest precipitation change but increased (+10.8% per decade) in the third of sites with the highest precipitation change. These results suggest that the “perturbation” of local communities during climatic transitions increases the average number of species, at least temporarily, an effect likely to remain important as climate change continues.

Trends in insect abundance are well established in some datasets, but far less is known about how abundance measures translate into biomass trends. Moths (Lepidoptera) provide particularly good opportunities to study trends and drivers of biomass change at large spatial and temporal scales, given the existence of long‐term abundance datasets. However, data on the body masses of moths are required for these analyses, but such data do not currently exist.To address this data gap, we collected empirical data in 2018 on the forewing length and dry mass of field‐sampled moths, and used these to train and test a statistical model that predicts the body mass of moth species from their forewing lengths (with refined parameters for Crambidae, Erebidae, Geometridae and Noctuidae).Modeled biomass was positively correlated, with high explanatory power, with measured biomass of moth species (R 2 = 0.886 ± 0.0006, across 10,000 bootstrapped replicates) and of mixed‐species samples of moths (R 2 = 0.873 ± 0.0003), showing that it is possible to predict biomass to an informative level of accuracy, and prediction error was smaller with larger sample sizes.Our model allows biomass to be estimated for historical moth abundance datasets, and so our approach will create opportunities to investigate trends and drivers of insect biomass change over long timescales and broad geographic regions., Assessment of trends in insect biomass is hampered by a lack of data. To address this, we developed a method to estimate the biomass of historical samples of moths, where abundance and species identity have been recorded. Estimates made using this method explain >85% of total variation in sample biomass, allowing biomass to be predicted to an informative level of accuracy.

Aims To investigate how habitat change and different levels of protection interact to determine variation in the (alpha and beta) diversity of bird communities in three bioclimatic zones, considering the impacts of non-native species, and the contribution of these effects to global (gamma) diversity. Location Sierra Gorda Biosphere Reserve, central Mexico. Methods We carried out bird surveys in a number of locations which varied according to their underlying vegetation type, their level of protection and the degree to which they had undergone modification by humans. We conducted a range of analyses to determine the impacts of protection and modification on the richness and mean global population trends of the species found in each location. We compared community composition to assess the homogenization effect of habitat modification. Results Human-modified environments in each of three bioclimatic zones held significantly greater numbers of species (alpha diversity) than unmodified habitats. Human-mediated changes to local bird communities altered patterns of beta diversity in opposite directions; communities across bioclimatic zones were more similar to one another in modified areas than in unmodified areas but, on a local scale, modification of vegetation increased community dissimilarity. The changes are likely to contribute to a decline in global (gamma) diversity, given that globally vulnerable (declining) birds were mostly associated with unmodified, strictly protected areas. Main conclusions We highlight that assessment of human impacts and conservation need depends on the metric of biodiversity used and scale considered: small-scale habitat change increased local and regional avian diversity but strictly protected areas are still required to protect globally vulnerable species.

Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to conserve them. The last three decades have seen exponential growth in the number of studies evaluating how, how much, why, when, and where species will be impacted by climate change. We provide an overview of the rapidly developing field of climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) and describe key concepts, terms, steps and considerations. We stress the importance of identifying the full range of pressures, impacts and their associated mechanisms that species face and using this as a basis for selecting the appropriate assessment approaches for quantifying vulnerability. We outline four CCVA assessment approaches, namely trait-based, correlative, mechanistic and combined approaches and discuss their use. Since any assessment can deliver unreliable or even misleading results when incorrect data and parameters are applied, we discuss finding, selecting, and applying input data and provide examples of open-access resources. Because rare, small-range, and declining-range species are often of particular conservation concern while also posing significant challenges for CCVA, we describe alternative ways to assess them. We also describe how CCVAs can be used to inform IUCN Red List assessments of extinction risk. Finally, we suggest future directions in this field and propose areas where research efforts may be particularly valuable.

Both community composition changes due to species redistribution and within-species size shifts may alter body-size structures under climate warming. Here we assess the relative contribution of these processes in community-level body-size changes in tropical moth assemblages that moved uphill during a period of warming. Based on resurvey data for seven assemblages of geometrid moths (>8000 individuals) on Mt. Kinabalu, Borneo, in 1965 and 2007, we show significant wing-length reduction (mean shrinkage of 1.3% per species). Range shifts explain most size restructuring, due to uphill shifts of relatively small species, especially at high elevations. Overall, mean forewing length shrank by ca. 5%, much of which is accounted for by species range boundary shifts (3.9%), followed by within-boundary distribution changes (0.5%), and within-species size shrinkage (0.6%). We conclude that the effects of range shifting predominate, but considering species physiological responses is also important for understanding community size reorganization under climate warming., Body size shifts under climate change may arise from species range shifts, intraspecific size shifts, or both. Here the authors show that body size reduction in moth assemblages on Mt. Kinabalu, Borneo, over 42 years are driven more by species range shifts than by within-species shrinkage.

1.Planning for nature conservation has increasingly emphasised the concepts of resilience and spatial networks. Although the importance of habitat networks for individual species is clear, their significance for long‐term ecological resilience and multi‐species conservation strategies is less established. 2.Referencing spatial network theory, we describe the conceptual basis for defining and assessing a network of wildlife areas that supports species’ resilience to multiple forms of perturbations and pressures. We explore actions that could enhance network resilience at a range of scales, based on ecological principles, with reference to four well‐established strategies for intervention in a spatial network (“Better, Bigger, More and Joined”) from the influential Making Space for Nature report by Lawton et al. (2010). 3.Building existing theory into useable and scalable approaches applicable to large numbers of species is challenging but tractable. We illustrate the policy context, describe the elements of a long‐term adaptive management plan and provide example actions, metrics and targets for early implementation using England as a case study, where there is an opportunity to include large‐scale ecological planning in a newly launched 25‐year environment plan. 4.Policy implications. The concept of resilient ecological networks has attracted scientific and political support, but there is no consensus on what a resilient network would look like, or how to assess it. Therefore, it is unclear whether existing targets for action will be sufficient to achieve network resilience. We show that the scientific principles to place resilience and network theory at the heart of large‐scale and long‐term environmental planning are established and ready to implement in practice. Delivering a resilient network to support nature recovery is achievable and can be integrated with ongoing conservation actions and targets, by assessing their effectiveness on properties of the entire network. England's 25 Year Environment Plan promises to deliver a natural environment that is protected and enhanced for the future and so provides the ideal testbed.

We present the results of a process to attempt to identify 100 questions that, if answered, would make a substantial difference to terrestrial and marine landscape restoration in Europe. Representatives from a wide range of European governmental and non-governmental conservation organisations, universities, independent ecologists and land managers compiled 677 questions relating to all aspects of European landscape restoration for nature and people. The questions were shortlisted by an email vote, followed by a two-day workshop, to produce the final list of 100 questions. Many of the final questions evolved through a process of modification and combination as the workshop progressed. The questions are divided into eight sections: conservation of biodiversity; connectivity, migration and translocations; delivering and evaluating restoration; natural processes; ecosystem services; social and cultural aspects of restoration; policy and governance; and economics. We anticipate that these questions will help identify new directions for researchers and policy-makers and assist funders and programme managers in allocating funds and planning projects, resulting in improved understanding and implementation of landscape-scale ecological restoration in Europe. This exercise was funded by Arcadia (as is WJS), a charitable fund of Lisbet Rausing and Peter Baldwin, through the Endangered Landscapes Programme.

Many species are extending their leading-edge (cool) range margins polewards in response to recent climate change. In the present study, we investigated range margin changes at the northern (cool) range margins of 1573 southerly-distributed species from 21 animal groups in Great Britain over the past four decades of climate change, updating previous work. Depending on data availability, range margin changes were examined over two time intervals during the past four decades. For four groups (birds, butterflies, macromoths, and dragonflies and damselflies), there were sufficient data available to examine range margin changes over both time intervals. We found that most taxa shifted their northern range margins polewards and this finding was not greatly influenced by changes in recorder effort. The mean northwards range margin change in the first time interval was 23 km per decade (N = 13 taxonomic groups) and, in the second interval, was 18 km per decade (N = 16 taxonomic groups) during periods when the British climate warmed by 0.21 and 0.28 °C per decade, respectively. For the four taxa examined over both intervals, there was evidence for higher rate of range margin change in the more recent time interval in the two Lepidoptera groups. Our analyses confirm a continued range margin shift polewards in a wide range of taxonomic groups.

Global environmental changes have been driving large-scale shifts in the distributions of species and in the composition of biological communities. This has thrown the continuing value of Protected Areas (PAs) into question, given that PAs remain static, whereas species move, and they are predicted to continue to move under future climate scenarios. We consider empirical evidence on the observed performance of PAs during the last 40 years of anthropogenic climate change. Despite some losses of populations and species, PAs have continued to accommodate many species, which have shifted to higher elevations, to polewards-facing aspects, and into cooler microhabitats within PAs as the climate has warmed. Even when species have declined in some PAs, they often remain more abundant inside than outside PAs. Furthermore, losses from some PAs are offset by increases in others. As species expand their ranges polewards across fragmented landscapes in response to climate warming, the majority are disproportionately colonizing PAs as they go. Hence, PA networks are acting as stepping-stones of suitable breeding conditions and facilitating range shifts, with many species remaining protected across PA networks as a whole. Finally, there is some evidence that appropriate management of PAs may be able to slow climate-related declines and accelerate expansions. The 40-year track record of species responding to environmental change in PAs suggests that networks of PAs have been essential to biodiversity conservation and are likely to continue to fulfil this role in the future. The challenge for managers will be to consider the balance between retaining current species and encouraging colonization by new species. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, ●●, ●●–●●.

A cornerstone of conservation is the designation and management of protected areas (PAs): locations often under conservation management containing species of conservation concern, where some development and other detrimental influences are prevented or mitigated. However, the value of PAs for conserving biodiversity in the long term has been questioned given that species are changing their distributions in response to climatic change. There is a concern that PAs may become climatically unsuitable for those species that they were designated to protect, and may not be located appropriately to receive newly-colonizing species for which the climate is improving. In the present study, we analyze fine-scale distribution data from detailed resurveys of seven butterfly and 11 bird species in Great Britain aiming to examine any effect of PA designation in preventing extinctions and promoting colonizations. We found a positive effect of PA designation on species' persistence at trailing-edge warm range margins, although with a decreased magnitude at higher latitudes and altitudes. In addition, colonizations by range expanding species were more likely to occur on PAs even after altitude and latitude were taken into account. PAs will therefore remain an important strategy for conservation. The potential for PA management to mitigate the effects of climatic change for retracting species deserves further investigation.

Aim Protected wildlife habitats provide valuable stepping stones for species that shift their distributions in response to climatic and other environmental changes, but they might also aid the spread of invasive alien species. Here, we quantify the use of protected areas (PAs) by both introduced and natural wetland colonists in the UK to analyse patterns of colonization and examine the propensity of invaders to use PAs. Location United Kingdom. Methods We calculate PA associations for six species of wetland birds deliberately introduced to the UK and compare these with eight others that have recently colonized the UK naturally. We assess PA associations at three different stages of establishment – first breeding in each county, early establishment of a population (4–6 years after initial breeding) and subsequent consolidation (14–16 after initial breeding) – and analyse changes in PA association over time. Results Introduced wetland bird species were less associated with PAs than natural colonists at each stage of establishment. During the later stages of colonization, the PA association of introduced species tended to increase. In contrast, natural colonists usually colonized PAs first, and their established populations subsequently spread into non-PA sites. Main conclusions The United Kingdom PA network did not facilitate the invasion of introduced species during the initial stages of their colonization, but was vulnerable to colonization as populations established. This is in contrast to natural colonists, which are more reliant on PAs during initial colonization but become less dependent as they establish. During a period of rapid environmental change, PAs have facilitated expansions of natural colonists, without acting as the prime sites for invasion by introduced species.

The habitat associations of individuals underpin the dynamics of species distributions. Broad-scale gradients in climate can alter habitat associations across species’ geographic ranges, but topographic heterogeneity creates local microclimates which could generate variation in habitat use at finer spatial scales. We examined the selection of microhabitats for egg-laying by populations of a thermally-constrained butterfly, the skipper Hesperia comma, across 16 sites with different regional temperatures and topographic microclimates. Using models of thermal microclimate, we examined how the association between eggs and warm bare ground microhabitats varied with ambient temperature, and predicted bare ground associations in 287 existing H. comma populations, to investigate the relative impacts of regional temperatures and topographic microclimates on microhabitat use. Eggs were most strongly associated with bare ground in relatively cool sites, indicating climate-driven changes in microhabitat use. The majority of temperature variation between study sites was attributable to topographic microclimates rather than regional temperature differences, such that changes in microhabitat associations occurred principally between north- and south-facing slopes within the same region. Predicted microhabitat associations across the UK distribution of H. comma showed that, due to the large temperature differences generated by topography, most of the between-population variation in microhabitat use occurs locally within 5 km grid squares, with a smaller proportion occurring at a regional level between 5 km squares. Our findings show how microclimatic variation generated by topography alters the habitat associations of populations at fine spatial scales, suggesting that microclimate-driven changes in habitat suitability could shape species’ distribution dynamics and their responses to environmental change.

Will networks of protected areas remain effective as the climate changes? Research into the response of bird populations to climate variance and change attempts to shed light on this issue. Results suggest that despite projected declines in many of the species investigated, most sites that are designated as EU Special Protection Areas in the UK can be expected to retain their conservation value and legal status.

A proteolytically stable fragment of a plasmid replication initiation protein from the thermophile G. stearothermophilus has been biochemically characterized, crystallized and diffraction data collected to a resolution of 2.5 Å., Antibiotic resistance in bacterial pathogens poses an ever-increasing risk to human health. In antibiotic-resistant strains of Staphylococcus aureus this resistance often resides in extra-chromosomal plasmids, such as those of the pT181 family, which replicate via a rolling-circle mechanism mediated by a plasmid-encoded replication initiation protein. Currently, there is no structural information available for the pT181-family Rep proteins. Here, the crystallization of a catalytically active fragment of a homologous replication initiation protein from the thermophile Geobacillus stearothermophilus responsible for the replication of plasmid pSTK1 is reported. Crystals of the RepSTK1 fragment diffracted to a resolution of 2.5 Å and belonged to space group P212121.

There is a need to adapt biodiversity conservation to climate change, but few empirical studies are available to guide decision-making. Existing networks of protected areas (PAs) have been preferentially colonized during species’ range expansions, but this could be due to their original habitat quality and/or to ongoing management activity. Here, we examine how PA status and active conservation management have influenced the range expansion of a butterfly Hesperia comma through fragmented landscapes. PAs under active conservation management were over three times more likely to be colonized than unprotected, unmanaged sites of the same basic vegetation type. Conservation action also increased the survival rate of existing populations inside and outside of PAs. We conclude that PAs facilitate range expansions by preventing habitat degradation and encouraging active conservation that improves habitat quality, and that conservation interventions on nondesignated sites also have a role to play in adapting conservation to climate change.

Ecological responses to climate change may depend on complex patterns of variability in weather and local microclimate that overlay global increases in mean temperature. Here, we show that high-resolution temporal and spatial variability in temperature drives the dynamics of range expansion for an exemplar species, the butterfly Hesperia comma. Using fine-resolution (5 m) models of vegetation surface microclimate, we estimate the thermal suitability of 906 habitat patches at the species' range margin for 27 years. Population and metapopulation models that incorporate this dynamic microclimate surface improve predictions of observed annual changes to population density and patch occupancy dynamics during the species' range expansion from 1982 to 2009. Our findings reveal how fine-scale, short-term environmental variability drives rates and patterns of range expansion through spatially localised, intermittent episodes of expansion and contraction. Incorporating dynamic microclimates can thus improve models of species range shifts at spatial and temporal scales relevant to conservation interventions.

Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policy makers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. Here, we compare the outputs of 12 such climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and we test the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e., using historical data to assign risks, and more recent data for validation). Our results highlight considerable inconsistencies in species risk assignment across all the approaches considered and suggest the majority of the frameworks are poor predictors of risk under climate change – two methods performed worse than random. Methods that incorporated historic trend data were the only ones to have any validity at predicting distributional trends in subsequent time periods.

In our recent Research Article “Individualistic sensitivities and exposure to climate change explain variation in species’ distribution and abundance changes” (1), we presented an analysis relating species-specific measures of sensitivity and exposure to climate, to species’ recent population changes. While our measure and interpretation of species’ climate sensitivity remain correct, we now recognize our interpretation of the exposure measure was inaccurate: Our climate models included an intercept, representing a nonzero average population growth rate; thus, the exposure measure incorporated not only climate effects but other nonclimatic—and potentially unmeasured climatic—effects as well. While our results still demonstrate that a significant proportion of variation in population trends can be explained by exposure and sensitivity, the correct interpretation of the exposure measure means that the explained variation is not solely due to climate. As such, our conclusion that a large proportion of variation in population changes can be explained by individualistic responses to climate is misleading. Given this, and to avoid confusion, we are wholly retracting the Research Article, and we apologize that this was not picked up sooner.