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A proper understanding of the risks faced by the agricultural sector and effective strategies to manage those risks is vital to creating a diversified and resilient economy for sustained growth and economic transformation. Increasing Agricultural Resilience through Better Risk Management in Zambia provides a rigorous analysis of the production, marketing, and enabling environment risks faced by Zambia’s agricultural sector and prioritizes solutions to manage the risks. In terms of the severity and frequency of adverse impacts, the analysis shows that droughts, floods, price volatilities, and trade restrictions are the principal risks affecting agriculture in the country. Exposure to the consequences of these and other risks can be effectively limited through risk management systems tailored to the country’s context. Three areas of risk management are found to warrant priority, with significant potential for synergizing actions undertaken across them: Strengthen early warning system to detect threats to food security; Develop climate-smart agriculture and increase resilience to climate-related shocks through diversification; and Develop the Zambian Commodity Exchange (ZAMACE) and build a shock-responsive safety net.

Rapid population growth, urbanization, and income growth are triggering increased demand for high-value agricultural products across Southern Africa with scope for gains from trade and regional integration. We analyse the animal feed to poultry value chain in Zambia focusing on the industry capabilities with a view to enhancing its competitiveness and production for the regional market. The industry has exhibited rapid growth with investments, which has increased competition to consumers' benefit. However, challenges remain if it is to contribute to the regional market; animal feed input production and productivity remain low despite improvements. Similarly, produced poultry is in low quantities. Consequently, there is limited export of products due to higher prices. Enhancing value chain capabilities will require technology investments and public expenditure allocations that enhance productivity and production of animal feed inputs, and limited government intervention in maize marketing and trade which adversely impacts on maize prices.

The successive maize bumper harvests experienced by Zambia in recent years mean that the country has to find long lasting and sustainable ways to deal with persistent maize marketing challenges facing the smallholder farmers. The government has continued to struggle with the price-dilemma where they would like to keep the price of maize grain high for the maize producers, while at the same time try to maintain low mealie-meal prices for the consumers. In the process, the government has continued to alienate the private sector, which if promoted would help broaden the market for maize and save the national treasury millions of the Kwacha Rebased (K).

This paper examines the career trajectories of 66 distinguished African agricultural professionals. Based on in-depth qualitative interviews, the paper explores the answers to two critical questions: How can Africa motivate its youth to consider careers in agriculture and agribusiness? How can agricultural education and training (AET) institutions better prepare youth for productive careers in agribusiness?

This study assesses whether the recent public and private efforts to improve farmers’ access to mechanical power in Ghana have had the intended effects on the country’s agricultural sector. Using panel survey data, this paper analyses the drivers of farm mechanization and its net impacts on cropland expansion and farming system intensification in northern Ghana. Several factors explain the use and use intensity of agricultural mechanization, including landholding size, total labor and fertilizer use per hectare, chemical use, and amount of land left fallow. More importantly, the results suggest that farm mechanization did have a positive impact on cropland expansion during the survey period. The results presented here support the existence of a labor substitution effect resulting from tractor use.

This paper was written to help bolster the case and present visual evidence demonstrating why it is important to seriously consider spatial soil fertility variability in Ghana and to promote area-specific fertilizer recommendations. Using geostatistical analysis of soil samples collected from farmer plots in three districts (Tamale Municipality, Savelugu-Nanton, and West Mamprusi in northern Ghana), the paper analyzes spatial variations in soil fertility. The results clearly show that there are variations in soil pH, organic matter content, and available phosphorous even at the community level, supporting the need for Ghana to seriously consider location-specific fertilizer recommendations.

This study uses longitudinal household data collected in 2001, 2004, and 2008 to identify factors that influence Zambian smallholder farmers' participation in livestock markets. Although livestock ownership increased during the study period, not all provinces experienced the upward trend. While livestock populations increased in Southern and Central Provinces, they remained stagnant in Eastern, North western and Lusaka Provinces and reduced in Western Province. Not only has herd size remained stagnant over the years, but the level of participation of smallholder farmers in the livestock markets has also remained largely the same. Crop commercialization and participation in off-farm activities reduces the likelihood of participation in cattle markets but not in the markets for small livestock.

Although a majority of Zambians work in agriculture, only a small minority of smallholders succeed in transitioning to high-productivity, high-value commercial agriculture. Only 20% of cotton farmers and less than 5% of maize and horticulture farmers succeed as top-tier commercial growers (Table 1). By tracing the long-term agricultural trajectories of successful commercial cotton, maize and horticulture farmers, this study identifies two broad agricultural pathways out of poverty. The low road, exemplified by cotton production, involves a two-generation transition via low-value but with well-structured markets. The more restrictive high road, epitomized by horticulture production, offers a steeper ascent, enabling prosperity within a single generation, but requires commensurately higher levels of financing, management and risk. Personal characteristics that define successful commercial smallholders include: • strict discipline; • treatment of farming as a business; • good management of crop production, labor and finances; • a strong propensity to save; and • willingness to invest in their children’s education. Key institutions affecting smallholder performance include: • management and marketing support provided by the cotton companies to their contract farmers; • land allocation systems, particularly those permitting land consolidation in communal areas and smallholder transitions to farm blocks in state lands; • savings systems (both financial and livestock-based) that permit successful smallholders to rebound from period shocks.

This study aims to provide up-to-date analysis using rarely collected nationwide data on the patterns of adoption of improved technologies for rice in Ghana.

The study aims to provide up-to-date and rarely collected nationwide data and analysis on the patterns of adoption of improved technologies for maize in Ghana.

The past decade has seen several African countries increasing their agricultural growth, a trend largely underpinned by increases in land area cultivated instead of productivity increases. Meanwhile, scholars debate whether Africa should pursue a strategy of large-scale or smallholder farms, paying little attention to a special group of smallholder farmers who have transitioned to become medium- and large-scale farmers. This study, therefore, begins to analyze this group of farmers, using qualitative data from in-depth interviews and focus group discussions in Ghana. We analyze their characteristics, ingredients of farm-size expansion, and commercialization.

Livestock production and associated products offer significant opportunities for economic growth and poverty reduction, especially among the rural farmers in Zambia and other developing countries. However, smallholder livestock producers are characterized by low levels of market participation (Negassa, Rashid, and Gebremedhin 2011). Among many reasons cited in the literature, smallholder farmers do not participate in livestock markets because of remoteness of livestock producers from the main urban market centers, and poor road infrastructure that result in high transport costs. Understanding the determinants and livestock marketing behavior of smallholder farmers will contribute to the knowledge gap in the country regarding why poverty remains high even among households owning livestock.

This paper traces the trajectories of successful commercial smallholders operating under differing sets of market institutions. Analysis focuses on maize, cotton, and horticulture, three widely marketed crops with strikingly different market institutions. Maize receives intensive government input and marketing support. In contrast, cotton relies primarily on private contract farming schemes, while horticulture enjoys no large-scale institutional support from either the public or private sectors. Using a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods, the analysis aims to identify personal characteristics and institutional factors that enable smallholder transitions to high-productivity commercial agriculture.

The global food price crisis of 2007/08 raised fears about the impacts of higher and more volatile food prices for the poor in Zambia. Like in the past, the implementation of the strategies to deal with the rising food prices, especially for the staple crop maize were delayed due to ineffective response policies, mistrust between government and private sector, protracted discussions, inaction amongst key agriculture stakeholders and rent-seeking behaviour by some. Using the political economy framework, this study examines how the country responded to the 2007/08 global food crisis and the lessons learnt for dealing with future food crises.

The past two years are a tribute to Zambian farmers; they have responded admirably to government efforts to promote maize production. But ironically, rural poverty remains stubbornly high despite the fact that the government has spent over 2% of the nation’s gross domestic product in supporting maize production and subsidizing inputs for farmers. Why is it that maize production has increased so impressively without making a serious dent in rural poverty? And what are the lessons for the new government?

Smallholder farmers’ access to markets and agricultural support services has been a major concern of Zambian policy makers. As with many governments in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Zambian government’s agricultural policies, particularly for maize, have fundamentally been conceived of as a response to perceived market failure and weak access to markets for rural smallholder farmers. However, the conventional wisdom of poor market access is based on extremely limited empirical evidence. This study is motivated by the need to overcome this paucity of empirical evidence and provide policy makers with an up-to-date assessment of smallholder farmers’ market access conditions for maize, the primary food grain in Zambia.

The study surveyed 127 households from Central, Eastern, Luapula, Northern, and Southern Provinces of Zambia. The primary objective was to explore life-trajectory patterns and key drivers of welfare change. Households were classified based on long term poverty dynamics i.e., how they perceived their welfare compared to that of their parents with the major focus being on households that were better off (BO) than both the parents (parents of head and spouse) and those that were worse off (WO) than both parents were. Poverty was mainly defined from the communities' own perspectives and entailed exploring reasons perceived by participants for decline or improvement in people’s well-being in their communities. The hypotheses that factors such as household endowments, key decisions made, household location, and shocks experienced by households have an impact on household’s welfare dynamics were tested. Several approaches were used including semi-structured interviews at household level and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs).

Rural poverty rates in Zambia have remained very high, at 80%, over the past decade and a half, whilst urban poverty rates have declined, from 49% in 1991 to 34% in 2006. Redressing this high rural poverty rate remains a government priority in the National Development Programs. However, solutions have proven elusive. Solid empirically based information on dynamics that have improved the welfare of small-scale farm households in Zambia, combined with an agenda for disseminating this information in public discourse, offer prospects for generating a more transparent and pro-poor policy orientation. Using longitudinal data collected from 4,286 households which participated in three nationwide surveys conducted over seven years, in 2001, 2004, and 2008, we examine the factors associated with chronic and transient poverty and use the results to draw implications for designing policies and programs for alleviating rural poverty and promoting income growth for rural Zambia households.

This technical compendium was developed to serve two interrelated purposes: 1.To assist in the development of USAID Zambia’s Feed the Future (FtF) strategy by providing a broad empirical analysis of the current conditions and historical trends shaping Zambia’s agricultural and food sector; and 2. To serve as a technical reference for organizations tasked with designing and implementing programs associated with FtF.

Zambia’s maize crop grew by roughly 48% between the 2009 and 2010 harvests, leading to the largest crop recorded in recent history. The 2009 maize harvest was also very good, making the 48% rise in 2010 even more remarkable. The forces driving that increase, however, remain widely debated. Many in government and media have attributed the recent production increase to the government’s fertilizer subsidy program as well as to the state’s recent efforts to raise maize prices through the operations of the Food Reserve Agency. Others have argued that the bumper harvest is partially due to the adoption of conservation farming techniques by farmers. Still others attribute the maize production growth mainly to favorable weather. Unfortunately, none of these claims have been backed up by solid evidence-based research.

Accurate information on farmer and consumer behavior is the foundation for Identifying public investments and policies that can effectively promote national food security and income growth objectives. This report synthesizes recent findings on smallholder crop marketing behavior and urban consumption patterns in Eastern and Southern Africa, and their implications for public sector investments and policies to promote smallholder incomes and national food security.

Natural resource use, including land, and rural population location is an important topic for Zambia's development strategy. Among other efforts, the Government of Zambia (GRZ) has designated 22% of total land area, as Game Management Areas (GMAs) for human settlements and wildlife conservation. Other GRZ programmes seek to improve food security and agricultural productivity, including the use and improvement of conservation farming techniques. GRZ is currently reviewing policies in the agricultural, forestry, fisheries, wildlife and land sectors. Research in these fields has much to contribute to effective management of MAs, increased agricultural productivity and improved welfare, especially for the rural population.

More effective policies are needed to improve access and secure rights to land and other natural resources for various stakeholders, particularly smallholder farmers. Service delivery at all levels of governance needs to be restructured and strengthened in order to promote and improve economic development and management of natural resources in both open and protected areas. New strategies are needed for protecting and developing natural resource areas based on appropriate resource management systems that promote broad-based participation and sharing of benefits, and offer potential for more effective community-based natural resource management. Improvements are needed in natural resource policy and law review processes in order to take better advantage of accumulated technical knowledge among stakeholders. In addition more efforts are required to achieve effective public-private pooling of interests and resources as well to adopting business-oriented approaches to natural resource management. Coordinated efforts are required to raise productivity of smallholders’ agricultural land through greatly expanded applied research and extension, and complementary infrastructure investments.

Prepared for the COMESA policy seminar on “Variation in staple food prices: Causes, consequence, and policy options”, Maputo, Mozambique, 25-26 January 2010 under the Comesa-MSU-IFPRI African Agricultural Marketing Project (AAMP)

There is continuing debate in east and southern Africa about the effects of food market reform on the welfare of small-scale farmers and low-income consumers. At the center of this debate is the perception that food prices have become more unstable in countries that have liberalized their staple food markets, thereby exacerbating the plight of poor consumers and farmers. This perception has led many governments in the region to shun an open maize borders policy and pursue a variety of food marketing and trade policy tools to stabilize food prices. Unfortunately, there remains a dearth of empirical evidence on the effects of alternative food marketing and trade policies, including that of liberalization, on price stability and predictability. Assessments of this issue are complicated by the fact that market reform programs are not monolithic in their design or implementation – impacts of reform on price instability may depend on variations in implementation. It would be particularly important to compare the magnitude of food price instability in countries that have embraced relatively comprehensive staple food market reform policies over time versus those in which the state continues to influence and stabilize food prices through the operations of marketing boards and controls on trade. This study examines the amplitude of price instability and unpredictability between countries using trade barriers and marketing board operations to stabilize prices versus countries with relatively open trade policies. Instability is defined as the unconditional variance in food prices over time, whereas unpredictability is defined as the unanticipated component of price instability, i.e., the conditional variance from a price forecast model.

Replaced with revised version of paper 06/16/10.