Search

Zagros Mountains are like an island in the Middle East and they are subjected to changes in climate. Daphne mucronata Royle is an important medicinal plant species preserved in the high elevation regions in these mountains. Maxent species distribution model was used to integrate presence data (2413 points) and environmental variables to model the current and future potential distribution of D. mucronata in Iran. The most important variables were Bio19 with 50.5% contribution, followed by Bio8 and Bio2 with 30% and 11.4% contributions, respectively. The best Maxent model included seven variables, 4 feature types (linear, quadratic, product, and hinge), and had a test AUC value of 0.894. The current potential distribution indicated that 8% of Iran's drylands are suitable for growing D. mucronata and this area could decrease to 5.2% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5, and 3.1% under RCP 8.5 due to climate change. Our results suggest that D. mucronata may lose overall about 2.8% and 4.9% of its current distribution under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, by 2050. There would be only 0.7 and 0.2% gains under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The species would locally disappear between 1500- and 2000-m elevation under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The establishment of some stations for monitoring the changes in transition zone or lost areas especially on the southeastern parts of Zagros Mountain can help in detecting changes in the future. Additionally, stable habitats may be good target areas for future conservation planning., (© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

The positive relationships between biodiversity and aboveground biomass are important for biodiversity conservation and greater ecosystem functioning and services that humans depend on. However, the interaction effects of plant coverage and biodiversity on aboveground biomass across plant growth forms (shrubs, forbs and grasses) in natural rangelands are poorly studied. Here, we hypothesized that, while accounting for environmental factors and disturbance intensities, the positive relationships between plant coverage, biodiversity, and aboveground biomass are ubiquitous across plant growth forms in natural rangelands. We applied structural equation models (SEMs) using data from 735 quadrats across 35 study sites in semi-steppe rangelands in Iran. The combination of plant coverage and species richness rather than Shannon's diversity or species diversity (a latent variable of species richness and evenness) substantially enhance aboveground biomass across plant growth forms. In all selected SEMs, plant coverage had a strong positive direct effect on aboveground biomass (β = 0.72 for shrubs, 0.84 for forbs and 0.80 for grasses), followed by a positive effect of species richness (β = 0.26 for shrubs, 0.05 for forbs and 0.09 for grasses), and topographic factors. Disturbance intensity had a negative effect on plant coverage, whereas it had a variable effect on species richness across plant growth forms. Plant coverage had a strong positive total effect on aboveground biomass (β = 0.84 for shrubs, 0.88 for forbs, and 0.85 for grasses), followed by a positive effect of species richness, and a negative effect of disturbance intensity across plant growth forms. Our results shed light on the management of rangelands that is high plant coverage can significantly improve species richness and aboveground biomass across plant growth forms. We also found that high disturbance intensity due to heavy grazing has a strong negative effect on plant coverage rather than species richness in semi-steppe rangelands. This study suggests that proper grazing systems (e.g. rotational system) based on carrying capacity and stocking rate of a rangeland may be helpful for biodiversity conservation, better grazing of livestock, improvement of plant coverage and enhancement of aboveground biomass., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)