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1. COVID-19 and Optimal Lockdown Strategies: The Effect of New and More Virulent Strains

Author

Caulkins, Jonathan P., Grass, Dieter, Feichtinger, Gustav, Hartl, Richard F., Kort, Peter M., Prskawetz, Alexia, Seidl, Andrea, Wrzaczek, Stefan, Albrecher, Hansjoerg, Editor-in-Chief, Sherris, Michael, Editor-in-Chief, Bauer, Daniel, Series Editor, Loisel, Stéphane, Series Editor, McNeil, Alexander J., Series Editor, Pelsser, Antoon, Series Editor, Pitacco, Ermanno, Series Editor, Willmot, Gordon, Series Editor, Yang, Hailiang, Series Editor, Boado-Penas, María del Carmen, editor, Eisenberg, Julia, editor, and Şahin‬‬‬, Şule, editor

Published
2022
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3. Assessing Costs and Benefits of Early Childhood Intervention Programs: Overview and Application to the Starting Early Starting Smart Program [with] Executive Summary.

Author

Rand Corp., Santa Monica, CA., Karoly, Lynn A., Kilburn, M. Rebecca, Bigelow, James H., Caulkins, Jonathan P., and Cannon, Jill S.

Abstract

Starting Early Starting Smart (SESS) is a knowledge development initiative designed to: (1) create and test a new model for providing mental health and substance abuse prevention and treatment for young children (birth to 7 years) and their families; and (2) inform practitioners and policymakers of successful interventions and promising practices from a multi-year study. In the third year of the first 5-year phase, 12 culturally diverse grantee organizations provide integrated behavioral health services in community-based early childhood settings where families customarily receive services for children. This report identifies the conceptual and methodological issues associated with the analysis of costs and outcomes of early intervention programs in general and makes recommendations regarding the application of these tools for subsequent demonstration studies of SESS. Chapter 1 discusses the results-based accountability movement in social services and argues that knowledge about the relationship between costs and outcomes is useful for program directors but is also important for developing policy approaches at a more general level. Chapter 2 provides a primer on various types of cost and outcome analysis: cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, and related methods within the broader decision support framework or policy scorecard analysis. Chapter 3 discusses issues in cost and outcome analysis specific to early childhood intervention programs, focusing on measures for benefits and estimation of costs. Chapter 4 reviews the literature on cost and outcome analysis for early childhood intervention programs and provides illustrations of such analyses from the Perry Preschool Program, the Elmira Prenatal/Early Infancy Project, and the Chicago Child Parent Centers. Chapter 5 applies the concepts to the SESS program, with specific recommendations regarding the evaluation design and implementation of cost and outcome analysis. Chapter 6 summarizes the main findings and presents conclusions. Three appendices include descriptions of the grantees and mission statements of the national collaborators involved in the project. Also appended is the Executive Summary. (Contains 1 figure, 15 tables, and a 77-item bibliography.) (KB)

Published
2001

4. An Ounce of Prevention, a Pound of Uncertainty: The Cost-Effectiveness of School-Based Drug Prevention Programs.

Author

Rand Corp., Santa Monica, CA., Caulkins, Jonathan P., Rydell, C. Peter, Everingham, Susan S., Caulkins, Jonathan P., Rydell, C. Peter, Everingham, Susan S., and Rand Corp., Santa Monica, CA.

Abstract

This book describes an analysis of the cost-effectiveness of model school-based drug prevention programs at reducing cocaine consumption. It compares prevention's cost-effectiveness with that of several enforcement programs and with that of treating heavy cocaine users. It also assesses the cost of nationwide implementation of model prevention programs and the implementation's likely effect on the nation's cocaine consumption. There is considerable uncertainty surrounding the magnitude of the effects of school-based drug prevention programs. However, a few things are clear. Nationwide implementation of a model program today is affordable, but it would not dramatically affect the course of drug use and the benefits would take years to accrue. Alternatively, the range of cost-effectiveness estimates derived for this book for prevention is comparable to that previously derived for different enforcement interventions. Furthermore, implementing model prevention programs seems to be justifiable in the sense that the benefits produced would likely outweigh the costs of the resources used. Includes tables and figures depicting results of the analysis. Ten appendixes address the implications and effects of cocaine, marijuana, alcohol, and cigarette use. (Contains 82 references.) (Author/MKA)

Published
1999

12. Limited Rationality and the Limits of Supply Reduction

Author

Caulkins, Jonathan P. and MacCoun, Robert J.

Abstract

Drug markets have been targeted for increasingly tough enforcement yet retail prices for cocaine and heroin fell by 70-80%. No research has explained adequately why prices have fallen. This paper explores the possibility that part of the explanation may lie in the failure of drug dealers to respond to risks the way the simplest rational actor models might predict.

Published
2003

21. School-Based Drug Prevention: What Kind of Drug Use Does It Prevent?

Author

RAND, Santa Monica, CA. Drug Policy Research Center., Caulkins, Jonathan P., Pacula, Rosalie Liccardo, Paddock, Susan, Caulkins, Jonathan P., Pacula, Rosalie Liccardo, Paddock, Susan, and RAND, Santa Monica, CA. Drug Policy Research Center.

Abstract

School-based drug prevention programs target not only the use of illicit drugs such as marijuana but also licit substances such as alcohol and tobacco. These programs thus have the potential of benefiting society not only by reducing the violence and criminal justice costs associated with abuse of alcohol and cigarettes. This opportunity for multiple benefits raises the interesting question, which is most important? Is school-based drug prevention beneficial mainly as a weapon in the war against illegal drugs, or is it more valuable as a promoter of public health through reduction of licit-substance abuse? The authors analyze the costs and effectiveness of several scientifically evaluated drug prevention programs, along with the social costs of the use of various substances. They verify previous findings that the social benefits of drug prevention can exceed its costs, and they conclude that approximately two-thirds of the programs' value to the public stems from reduction in the use of alcohol and tobacco. Implications for program funding are drawn, and the limitations of prevention are discussed. (Contains 92 references and 41 tables.) (Author)

Published
2002

22. Intelligent Giving: Insights and Strategies for Higher Education Donors.

Author

Rand Corp., Santa Monica, CA., Council for Aid to Education, Santa Monica, CA., Caulkins, Jonathan P., Cole, Jay, Hardoby, Melissa, Caulkins, Jonathan P., Cole, Jay, Hardoby, Melissa, Rand Corp., Santa Monica, CA., and Council for Aid to Education, Santa Monica, CA.

Abstract

This book is for those wishing to make a major gift to an institution of higher education who are looking for an intellectual framework for deciding how much to give to which school, for which purposes, over what periods of time, or with which (if any) restrictions. Higher education fundraising has grown increasingly sophisticated, but higher education philanthropy has remained in large part an amateur exercise. A donor can give an institution any amount for any purpose at any time, but there are some subtleties concerning the gifts that are most effective in achieving the donors purpose. Some gifts cannot be accepted; an example would be gifts not available to underrepresented minorities. Other gifts may not be accepted because accepting the gift is prohibitively expensive. Higher education philanthropy can be viewed as a formal social exchange between an individual or family donor. The most common situation is for donors to make a gift and trust the institution's leadership to identify the schools needs and priorities. Other donors, those with an agenda to satisfy or those who may be categorized as social entrepreneurs, want to fund something that may not be a top priority for the school. In this situation, a donation may involve negotiation. Ultimately the process that works best for a donor depends on his or her individual interests and needs. One appendix describes additional resources for donors, and the second contains the interview protocol used to gather information for this report. (Contains 20 figures, 6 tables, and 60 references.) (SLD)

Published
2002

28. Misguided drug policy

Author

MACCOUN, ROBERT, CAULKINS, JONATHAN P., and JAFFE, JEROME H.

Published
2004

31. Controlling underage access to legal cannabis

Author

Davenport, Steven, Caulkins, Jonathan P., and Kleiman, Mark A.R.

Subjects
Narcotics legalization -- Laws, regulations and rules, Marijuana -- Laws, regulations and rules -- Access control, Juvenile drug abuse -- Laws, regulations and rules, Law
Abstract

CONTENTS INTRODUCTION I. BACKGROUND II. HARMS AND POLICIES III. OUTLINE IV. STATE AND FEDERAL POLICIES TO LIMIT UNDERAGE USE A. Other Goals B. Avoiding the Criminalization of Youth and Adults [...]

Published
2015

40. COVID-19 and optimal lockdown strategies: The effect of new and more virulent strains

Author

Caulkins, Jonathan P., Grass, Dieter, Feichtinger, Gustav, Hartl, Richard, Kort, Peter M., Prskawetz, Alexia, Seidl, Andrea, and Wrzaczek, Stefan

Subjects
ddc:330
Abstract

Most nations have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by locking down parts of their economies to reduce infectious spread. The optimal timing of the beginning and end of the lockdown, together with its intensity, is determined by the tradeoff between economic losses and improved health outcomes. These choices can be modeled within the framework of an optimal control model that recognizes the nonlinear dynamics of epidemic spread and the increased risks when infection rates surge beyond the healthcare system's capacity. Past work has shown that within such a framework very different strategies may be optimal ranging from short to long and even multiple lockdowns, and small changes in the valuation placed on preventing a premature death may lead to quite different strategies becoming optimal. There even exist parameter constellations for which two or more very different strategies can be optimal. Here we revisit those crucial questions with revised parameters reflecting the greater infectivity of the recently detected "UK variant" of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and describe how the new variant may affect levels of mortality and other outcomes.

Published
2021

43. Cycles of violence: A dynamic control analysis

Author

Caulkins, Jonathan P., Feichtinger, Gustav, Tragler, Gernot, and Veliov, Vladimir M.

Subjects
Management science -- Analysis, Business, Business, general, Business, international
Abstract

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2006.05.027 Byline: Jonathan P. Caulkins (a), Gustav Feichtinger (b), Gernot Tragler (b), Vladimir M. Veliov (b)(c) Keywords: Cost benefit analysis; Cycles of violence; Hopf bifurcation; Optimal control; OR in government Abstract: We introduce and analyze a simple model of cycles of violence in which oscillations are generated when surges in lethal violence shrink the pool of active violent offenders. Models with such endogenously induced variation may help explain why historically observed trends in violence are generally not well correlated with exogenous forcing functions, such as changes in the state of the economy. The analysis includes finding the optimal dynamic trajectory of incarceration and violence prevention interventions. Those trajectories yield some surprising results, including situations in which myopic decision makers will invest more in prevention than will far-sighted decision makers. Author Affiliation: (a) H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA (b) Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics, Research Unit for Operations Research and Nonlinear Dynamical Systems, Vienna University of Technology, Argentinierstrasse 8/105-4, A-1040 Vienna, Austria (c) Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria Article History: Received 23 August 2004; Accepted 8 May 2006 Article Note: (footnote) [star] This research was partly supported by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) under grant # P14060-G05. Support was provided also in part by a grant from the National Consortium on Violence Research (NCOVR), headquartered at the Heinz School of Public Policy and Management at Carnegie Mellon University. NCOVR is supported under grant # SBR 9513040 from the National Science Foundation in partnership with the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the National Institute of Justice.

Published
2007

44. O.R. in Africa: recent programs, future potential; With no shortage of problems and an emerging community of O.R. scholars, opportunities abound for INFORMS and other organizations to fuel profession's growth throughout diverse continent

Author

Caulkins, Jonathan P., Eelman, Emily, Ratnatunga, Minoli, and Schaarsmith, David

Subjects
Computers -- Services, Economic development -- Conferences, meetings and seminars -- Africa
Abstract

EARLIER THIS YEAR, AFRICA HELD ITS FIRST CONTINENT-WIDE CONFERENCE ON O.R. PRACTICE (ORPA-1) with partial funding support from INFORMS as well as EURO, IFORS, KPMG and other sponsors. ORPA-1 crowns […]

Published
2005

48. The relationship between advertising and content provision on the Internet

Author

Yuehong Yuan, Caulkins, Jonathan P., and Roehrig, Stephen

Subjects
Advertising -- Management, Marketing communications -- Analysis, Consumer behavior -- Analysis, Marketing management -- Analysis, Internet -- Usage, Advertising, marketing and public relations, Business, Business, general
Abstract

The outcome on whether the traditional practice of bundling advertisements with content will continue or become less common on the Internet is dependent on the response of customers to bundling and to other advertising schemes. The connection between advertising and content provision on the Internet may be influenced by the medium's unique features, which affect the options of advertisers, the behavior of customers, and their dependence on the distinctive technological features of the Internet.

Published
1998

49. Spreadsheet errors and decision making: evidence from field interviews

Author

Caulkins, Jonathan P., Morrison, Erica Layne, and Weidemann, Timothy

Subjects
Spreadsheet add-on, Market trend/market analysis, Quality control, Spreadsheet software, Spreadsheets -- Usage -- Forecasts and trends -- Safety and security measures -- Methods, Quality control -- Methods -- Forecasts and trends -- Usage -- Safety and security measures
Abstract

ABSTRACT Spreadsheets are both ubiquitous and error-prone, but there is less evidence concerning whether spreadsheet errors frequently lead to bad decisions. We interviewed forty-five executives and senior managers / analysts […]

Published
2007

50. Scheduling crackdowns on illicit drug markets

Author

Naik, Ashish V., Baveja, Alok, Batta, Rajan, and Caulkins, Jonathan P.

Subjects
Drug traffic -- Laws, regulations and rules, Narcotics, Control of -- Management, Business, Business, general, Business, international
Abstract

This paper presents an analytical approach for scheduling crackdowns on street-corner drug markets. The crackdown scheduling problem is shown to be NP-complete. We then provide efficient optimal algorithms for several special cases and approximation algorithms for the general case. These results show that the optimal strategy is to give priority to markets that take longer to bring down and which require low levels of post-crackdown maintenance. The results are then extended to incorporate dealer displacement between drug markets. Keywords: Public policy; Modelling; Scheduling theory; Approximation, The optimal method for scheduling crackdowns on illegal drug markets is to prioritize those street-corner drug markets which would take longer to break up and which requires minimal enforcement to maintain the gains achieved by the crackdown. An analytical approach for scheduling crackdowns on these illicit drug markets is introduced. This technique also considers the practice of drug dealers to relocate to another market after a crackdown.

Published
1996

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