Search

Cette étude, menée en dix-huit mois, est un focus sur une région et un ensemble de questions parmi celles plus larges qu’étudie la prospective en cours AgriMonde-Terra. Elle a utilisé l’outil commun Inra-Cirad GlobAgri développé pour cette prospective et s’appuyant sur un jeu de données FAO. Ce modèle prend en compte la contrainte de terre. L’étude s’est organisée en deux temps : - Une analyse rétrospective des 50 dernières années qui a permis d’analyser la situation présente et de dégager des orientations - Des projections avec une analyse de sensibilité à l’horizon 2050 simulées avec le modèle GlobAgri Le groupe de travail comprenait des experts d’origine académiques et des opérateurs français spécialistes de la région. Cette étude s’inscrit également dans le métaprogramme Inra-Cirad Glofoods. Le présent travail cherche à éclairer le devenir à l’horizon 2050 des équilibres (production, consommation et échanges) du système agricole et alimentaire de la région Afrique du Nord – Moyen-Orient, prise dans un sens plus large que les rives sud et est de la Méditerranée telles qu’étudiées, par exemple, par la prospective MedPro (Belghazi, 2013). La région étudiée ici s’élargit à l’ensemble moyen-oriental en incluant l’Iran, l’Irak et la péninsule arabique.

The Middle East – North Africa region (MENA) is characterized by a particularly high level of dependence on agricultural imports: 40% of its needs for agricultural products are currently being met by imports, while its dependence on cereal imports is among the highest in the world. Over the course of the past several decades, a combination of demographic growth and changes in dietary habits has led to a marked increase in food requirements. Although agricultural production in the region has increased substantially over the same period, it has been unable to keep pace with the increase in demand, partly because of limitations in terms of soil and climate and partly because of limitations in terms of agricultural policy. Regional dependence on agricultural imports is likely to continue to escalate in the foreseeable future, both as a result of ongoing demographic expansion and changes in eating habits and as a result of climate change impacts in a region already recognized as a climate “hot spot.” As a global region, the MENA region is both geopolitically complex and highly strategic. Agricultural imports place a significant burden on state budgets, and agri-food policies in the region continue to struggle with urban and rural poverty. In this situation, it is important to understand which factors within the regional agri-food system are most likely to contribute to – or, on the contrary, might help mitigate – a continued increase in agricultural import dependence. It is for these reasons that Pluriagri has commissioned, and INRA has undertaken, the study summarised here. The project began by examining historic trends (from 1961 to 2011) with regard to the resource-use balance of the regional agri-food system. Next, it analysed several potential future scenarios for the region through the year 2050. To construct the scenarios, the study made use of simulation tools that take into account the anticipated effects of climate change as well as such factors as technical innovation, improved use of irrigation, contrasting patterns in eating habits, and differential changes in demographic and economic development. These simulations suggest that dependence on agricultural imports is likely to continue to increase in the region, especially if the effects of climate change are pronounced. Taken individually, none of the three mechanisms proposed for reducing agricultural import dependence (improved agricultural productivity, moderation of dietary habits, or a reduction in food waste) is capable of correcting this trend in the Maghreb, the Middle East, or the Near East. Such mechanisms may be effective in Egypt, however, and have the potential to strengthen Turkey’s role as a net agricultural exporter.

Les effluents d’élevage, boues d’épuration, déchets organiques urbains et effluents industriels – qualifiés de matières fertilisantes d’origine résiduaire (Mafor) - constituent des sources d'éléments fertilisants et de matière organique pour fertiliser ou amender les sols agricoles ou forestiers. L’expertise a fait le point sur les impacts agronomiques, environnementaux et socio-économiques de leur épandage.

Les effluents d’élevage, boues d’épuration, déchets organiques urbains et effluents industriels – qualifiés de matières fertilisantes d’origine résiduaire (Mafor) - constituent des sources d'éléments fertilisants et de matière organique pour fertiliser ou amender les sols agricoles ou forestiers. L’expertise a fait le point sur les impacts agronomiques, environnementaux et socio-économiques de leur épandage.