Search

Your search keyword '"Breznau, Nate"' showing total 45 results
Start Over Author "Breznau, Nate" Search Limiters Full Text

Refine your results

more »

more »

more »
45 results on '"Breznau, Nate"'

1. The replication crisis has led to positive structural, procedural, and community changes

Author

Korbmacher, Max, Azevedo, Flavio, Pennington, Charlotte R., Hartmann, Helena, Pownall, Madeleine, Schmidt, Kathleen, Elsherif, Mahmoud, Breznau, Nate, Robertson, Olly, Kalandadze, Tamara, Yu, Shijun, Baker, Bradley J., O’Mahony, Aoife, Olsnes, Jørgen Ø. -S., Shaw, John J., Gjoneska, Biljana, Yamada, Yuki, Röer, Jan P., Murphy, Jennifer, Alzahawi, Shilaan, Grinschgl, Sandra, Oliveira, Catia M., Wingen, Tobias, Yeung, Siu Kit, Liu, Meng, König, Laura M., Albayrak-Aydemir, Nihan, Lecuona, Oscar, Micheli, Leticia, and Evans, Thomas

Published
2023
Full Text
View/download PDF

4. The replication crisis has led to positive structural, procedural, and community changes

Author

Micheli, Leticia, Murphy, Jennifer, Yu, Shijun, Azevedo, Flavio, Schmidt, Kathleen, Alzahawi, Shilaan, Shaw, John, Korbmacher, Max, Breznau, Nate, Liu, Meng, Pownall, Madeleine, Pennington, Charlotte, Hartmann, Helena, Lecuona, Oscar, Yeung, Siu Kit, Kalandadze, Tamara, Grinschgl, Sandra, Elsherif, Mahmoud, Wingen, Tobias, Oliveira, Catia, Olsnes, Jørgen, Evans, Thomas, Röer, Jan, Albayrak-Aydemir, Nihan, König, Laura, Yamada, Yuki, Robertson, Olly, Gjoneska, Biljana, Baker, Bradley, and OMahony, Aoife

Subjects
MetaArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences
Abstract

The emergence of large-scale replication projects yielding successful rates substantially lower than expected caused the behavioural, cognitive, and social sciences to experience a so-called ‘replication crisis’. In this Perspective, we reframe this ‘crisis’ through the lens of a credibility revolution, focusing on positive structural, procedural and community-driven changes. Second, we outline a path to expand ongoing advances and improvements. The credibility revolution has been an impetus to several substantive changes which will have a positive, long-term impact on our research environment.

Published
2023

8. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate, primary, Rinke, Eike Mark, additional, Wuttke, Alexander, additional, Nguyen, Hung H. V., additional, Adem, Muna, additional, Adriaans, Jule, additional, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, additional, Andersen, Henrik K., additional, Auer, Daniel, additional, Azevedo, Flavio, additional, Bahnsen, Oke, additional, Balzer, Dave, additional, Bauer, Gerrit, additional, Bauer, Paul C., additional, Baumann, Markus, additional, Baute, Sharon, additional, Benoit, Verena, additional, Bernauer, Julian, additional, Berning, Carl, additional, Berthold, Anna, additional, Bethke, Felix S., additional, Biegert, Thomas, additional, Blinzler, Katharina, additional, Blumenberg, Johannes N., additional, Bobzien, Licia, additional, Bohman, Andrea, additional, Bol, Thijs, additional, Bostic, Amie, additional, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, additional, Burgdorf, Katharina, additional, Burger, Kaspar, additional, Busch, Kathrin B., additional, Carlos-Castillo, Juan, additional, Chan, Nathan, additional, Christmann, Pablo, additional, Connelly, Roxanne, additional, Czymara, Christian S., additional, Damian, Elena, additional, Ecker, Alejandro, additional, Edelmann, Achim, additional, Eger, Maureen A., additional, Ellerbrock, Simon, additional, Forke, Anna, additional, Forster, Andrea, additional, Gaasendam, Chris, additional, Gavras, Konstantin, additional, Gayle, Vernon, additional, Gessler, Theresa, additional, Gnambs, Timo, additional, Godefroidt, Amélie, additional, Grömping, Max, additional, Groß, Martin, additional, Gruber, Stefan, additional, Gummer, Tobias, additional, Hadjar, Andreas, additional, Heisig, Jan Paul, additional, Hellmeier, Sebastian, additional, Heyne, Stefanie, additional, Hirsch, Magdalena, additional, Hjerm, Mikael, additional, Hochman, Oshrat, additional, Hövermann, Andreas, additional, Hunger, Sophia, additional, Hunkler, Christian, additional, Huth, Nora, additional, Ignácz, Zsófia S., additional, Jacobs, Laura, additional, Jacobsen, Jannes, additional, Jaeger, Bastian, additional, Jungkunz, Sebastian, additional, Jungmann, Nils, additional, Kauff, Mathias, additional, Kleinert, Manuel, additional, Klinger, Julia, additional, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, additional, Kołczyńska, Marta, additional, Kuk, John, additional, Kunißen, Katharina, additional, Kurti Sinatra, Dafina, additional, Langenkamp, Alexander, additional, Lersch, Philipp M., additional, Löbel, Lea-Maria, additional, Lutscher, Philipp, additional, Mader, Matthias, additional, Madia, Joan E., additional, Malancu, Natalia, additional, Maldonado, Luis, additional, Marahrens, Helge, additional, Martin, Nicole, additional, Martinez, Paul, additional, Mayerl, Jochen, additional, Mayorga, Oscar J., additional, McManus, Patricia, additional, McWagner, Kyle, additional, Meeusen, Cecil, additional, Meierrieks, Daniel, additional, Mellon, Jonathan, additional, Merhout, Friedolin, additional, Merk, Samuel, additional, Meyer, Daniel, additional, Micheli, Leticia, additional, Mijs, Jonathan, additional, Moya, Cristóbal, additional, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, additional, Nüst, Daniel, additional, Nygård, Olav, additional, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, additional, Otte, Gunnar, additional, Pechenkina, Anna O., additional, Prosser, Christopher, additional, Raes, Louis, additional, Ralston, Kevin, additional, Ramos, Miguel R., additional, Roets, Arne, additional, Rogers, Jonathan, additional, Ropers, Guido, additional, Samuel, Robin, additional, Sand, Gregor, additional, Schachter, Ariela, additional, Schaeffer, Merlin, additional, Schieferdecker, David, additional, Schlueter, Elmar, additional, Schmidt, Regine, additional, Schmidt, Katja M., additional, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, additional, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, additional, Schneider, Jürgen, additional, Schoonvelde, Martijn, additional, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, additional, Schumann, Sandy, additional, Schunck, Reinhard, additional, Schupp, Jürgen, additional, Seuring, Julian, additional, Silber, Henning, additional, Sleegers, Willem, additional, Sonntag, Nico, additional, Staudt, Alexander, additional, Steiber, Nadia, additional, Steiner, Nils, additional, Sternberg, Sebastian, additional, Stiers, Dieter, additional, Stojmenovska, Dragana, additional, Storz, Nora, additional, Striessnig, Erich, additional, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, additional, Teltemann, Janna, additional, Tibajev, Andrey, additional, Tung, Brian, additional, Vagni, Giacomo, additional, Van Assche, Jasper, additional, van der Linden, Meta, additional, van der Noll, Jolanda, additional, Van Hootegem, Arno, additional, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, additional, Voicu, Bogdan, additional, Wagemans, Fieke, additional, Wehl, Nadja, additional, Werner, Hannah, additional, Wiernik, Brenton M., additional, Winter, Fabian, additional, Wolf, Christof, additional, Yamada, Yuki, additional, Zhang, Nan, additional, Ziller, Conrad, additional, Zins, Stefan, additional, and Żółtak, Tomasz, additional

Published
2022
Full Text
View/download PDF

9. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik K., Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes N., Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin B., Carlos-Castillo, Juan, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignácz, Zsófia S., Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Langenkamp, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan E., Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar J., McManus, Patricia, McWagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna O., Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel R., Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian, Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik K., Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes N., Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin B., Carlos-Castillo, Juan, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignácz, Zsófia S., Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Langenkamp, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan E., Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar J., McManus, Patricia, McWagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna O., Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel R., Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian, Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, and Żółtak, Tomasz

Abstract

This study explores how researchers’ analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers’ expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95 % of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team’s workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers’ results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.

Published
2022

10. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4983-3137, Rinke, Eike Mark; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5330-7634, Wuttke, Alexander; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9579-5357, et al, Burger, Kaspar; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5582-7062, Breznau, Nate; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4983-3137, Rinke, Eike Mark; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5330-7634, Wuttke, Alexander; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9579-5357, et al, and Burger, Kaspar; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5582-7062

Abstract

This study explores how researchers’ analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers’ expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team’s workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers’ results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.

Published
2022

11. Legacy of Jon Tennant, 'Open science is just good science'

Author

Breznau, Nate and Tennant, Jonathan

Subjects
SocArXiv|Education, bepress|Education, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences, SocArXiv|Law, SocArXiv|Arts and Humanities, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences, bepress|Arts and Humanities, bepress|Law
Abstract

This work is a transcribed and edited collection of the message delivered by Jon Tennant in his talk “Open science is just good science”, May 21st, 2018. In readable form with many links, this paper provides a primer on open science and the open science movement. It details the problems with closed access science as it is still practiced today, and how big publishing as an industry is largely responsible. It talks about the ethics behind open science practices. It provides many statistics and links to information about paywalls, movements such as Project DEAL, workflows, and personal and community issues such as fear and cultural inertia that may prevent us from adopting better science practices.

Published
2022

13. Proposal for Research and Development of Research Tools: 'The Role of Theory in Understanding and Resolving the Reliability Crisis'

Author

Breznau, Nate

Subjects
bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences
Abstract

This is a copy of a successful German Science Foundation application proposing to conduct research on the reliability of science, and to develop applications that can help address this reliability. It focuses on the role of theory and causal inference from a meta-perspective.

Published
2021

14. Integrating Computer Prediction Methods in Social Science: A Comment on Hofman et al. (2021)

Author

Breznau, Nate

Subjects
bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences, General Social Sciences, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences, Library and Information Sciences, Law, Computer Science Applications
Abstract

Machine learning and other computer-driven prediction models are one of the fastest growing trends in computational social science. These methods and approaches were developed in computer science and with different goals and epistemologies than those in social science. The most obvious difference being a focus on prediction versus explanation. Predictive modeling offers great potential for improving research and theory development, but its adoption poses some challenges and creates new problems. For this reason, Hofman et al. published recommendations for more effective integration of predictive modeling into social science. In this communication, I review their recommendations and expand on some additional concerns related to current practices and whether prediction can effectively serve the goals of most social scientists. Overall, I argue they provide a sound set of guidelines and a classification scheme that will serve those of us working in computational social science.

Published
2021

15. How Many Replicators Does It Take to Achieve Reliability? Investigating Researcher Variability in a Crowdsourced Replication

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Akdeniz, Esra, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Bai, Ling, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Rooij, Eline De, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eder, Christina, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Freire, Danilo, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Halbherr, Verena, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Höffler, Jan H., Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Israel, Sabine, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kanjana, Jennifer, Kauff, Mathias, Khan, Salman, Khatua, Sayak, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, C. Lee, Robin, Lersch, Philipp M., Liu, David, Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McDonnell, Robert Myles, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Pickup, Mark, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Reichert, Frank, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Petrarca, Constanza Sanhueza, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Suchow, Jordan W., Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Wu, Cary, Yamada, Yuki, Zakula, Björn, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Akdeniz, Esra, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Bai, Ling, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Rooij, Eline De, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eder, Christina, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Freire, Danilo, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Halbherr, Verena, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Höffler, Jan H., Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Israel, Sabine, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kanjana, Jennifer, Kauff, Mathias, Khan, Salman, Khatua, Sayak, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, C. Lee, Robin, Lersch, Philipp M., Liu, David, Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McDonnell, Robert Myles, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Pickup, Mark, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Reichert, Frank, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Petrarca, Constanza Sanhueza, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Suchow, Jordan W., Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Wu, Cary, Yamada, Yuki, Zakula, Björn, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, and Żółtak, Tomasz

Abstract

The paper reports findings from a crowdsourced replication. Eighty-four replicator teams attempted to verify results reported in an original study by running the same models with the same data. The replication involved an experimental condition. A “transparent” group received the original study and code, and an “opaque” group received the same underlying study but with only a methods section and description of the regression coefficients without size or significance, and no code. The transparent group mostly verified the original study (95.5%), while the opaque group had less success (89.4%). Qualitative investigation of the replicators’ workflows reveals many causes of non-verification. Two categories of these causes are hypothesized, routine and non-routine. After correcting non-routine errors in the research process to ensure that the results reflect a level of quality that should be present in ‘real-world’ research, the rate of verification was 96.1 in the transparent group and 92.4 in the opaque group. Two conclusions follow: (1) Although high, the verification rate suggests that it would take a minimum of three replicators per study to achieve replication reliability of at least 95 confidence assuming ecological validity in this controlled setting, and (2) like any type of scientific research, replication is prone to errors that derive from routine and undeliberate actions in the research process. The latter suggests that idiosyncratic researcher variability might provide a key to understanding part of the “reliability crisis” in social and behavioral science and is a reminder of the importance of transparent and well documented workflows.

Published
2021

16. Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, and Nguyen, Hung H. V.

Abstract

How does noise generated by researcher decisions undermine the credibility of science? We test this by observing all decisions made among 73 research teams as they independently conduct studies on the same hypothesis with identical starting data. We find excessive variation of outcomes. When combined, the 107 observed research decisions taken across teams explained at most 2.6 of the total variance in effect sizes and 10 of the deviance in subjective conclusions. Expertise, prior beliefs and attitudes of the researchers explain even less. Each model deployed to test the hypothesis was unique, which highlights a vast universe of research design variability that is normally hidden from view and suggests humility when presenting and interpreting scientific findings.

Published
2021

17. How Many Replicators Does It Take to Achieve Reliability:Investigating Researcher Variability in a Crowdsourced Replication

Author

Merhout, Friedolin, Breznau, Nate, Merhout, Friedolin, and Breznau, Nate

Abstract

The paper reports findings from a crowdsourced replication. Eighty-four replicator teams attempted to verify results reported in an original study by running the same models with the same data. The replication involved an experimental condition. A “transparent” group received the original study and code, and an “opaque” group received the same underlying study but with only a methods section and description of the regression coefficients without size or significance, and no code. The transparent group mostly verified the original study (95.5%), while the opaque group had less success (89.4%). Qualitative investigation of the replicators’ workflows reveals many causes of non-verification. Two categories of these causes are hypothesized, routine and non-routine. After correcting non-routine errors in the research process to ensure that the results reflect a level of quality that should be present in ‘real-world’ research, the rate of verification was 96.1% in the transparent group and 92.4% in the opaque group. Two conclusions follow: (1) Although high, the verification rate suggests that it would take a minimum of three replicators per study to achieve replication reliability of at least 95% confidence assuming ecological validity in this controlled setting, and (2) like any type of scientific research, replication is prone to errors that derive from routine and undeliberate actions in the research process. The latter suggests that idiosyncratic researcher variability might provide a key to understanding part of the “reliability crisis” in social and behavioral science and is a reminder of the importance of transparent and well documented workflows.

Published
2021

18. Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty

Author

Merhout, Friedolin, Breznau, Nate, Merhout, Friedolin, and Breznau, Nate

Abstract

This study explores how analytical choices of researchers affect the reliability of scientific findings. Current lack-of-reliability discussions focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to include idiosyncratic decisions in data analysis that lead researchers to diverging results and conclusions. We coordinated and observed decisions among 73 research-teams as they independently tested the same hypothesis using the same data. Results show that in this typical secondary data research situation, the universe of pathways from data to results is so vast that each analysis was unique in some way. Teams reported divergent findings with contradictory substantive implications that could not be explained by differences in researchers’ expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations. This calls for greater humility and clarity in presentation of scientific findings. Idiosyncratic variation may also be a cause for why many hypotheses remain highly contested, particularly in large-scale social and behavioral research., This study explores how analytical choices of researchers affect the reliability of scientific findings. Current lack-of-reliability discussions focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to include idiosyncratic decisions in data analysis that lead researchers to diverging results and conclusions. We coordinated and observed decisions among 73 research-teams as they independently tested the same hypothesis using the same data. Results show that in this typical secondary data research situation, the universe of pathways from data to results is so vast that each analysis was unique in some way. Teams reported divergent findings with contradictory substantive implications that could not be explained by differences in researchers’ expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations. This calls for greater humility and clarity in presentation of scientific findings. Idiosyncratic variation may also be a cause for why many hypotheses remain highly contested, particularly in large-scale social and behavioral research

Published
2021

19. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of data analysis

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Jaeger, Bastian, Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, and Jaeger, Bastian

Abstract

How does noise generated by researcher decisions undermine the credibility of science? We test this by observing all decisions made among 73 research teams as they independently conduct studies on the same hypothesis with identical starting data. We find excessive variation of outcomes. When combined, the 107 observed research decisions taken across teams explained at most 2.6% of the total variance in effect sizes and 10% of the deviance in subjective conclusions. Expertise, prior beliefs and attitudes of the researchers explain even less. Each model deployed to test the hypothesis was unique, which highlights a vast universe of research design variability that is normally hidden from view and suggests humility when presenting and interpreting scientific findings.

Published
2021

21. Bi-Directional Feedback to the Welfare State and Public Opinion

Author

Breznau, Nate

Subjects
bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Political Science, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Political Science|Comparative Politics, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Political Science|Comparative Politics, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Political Science, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology|Civic and Community Engagement, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Political Science|Political Theory, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Political Science|Political Theory, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology|Political Sociology
Abstract

Policy feedback between public opinion and social policy is likely bi-directional. At least theory suggests. However, most research uses a uni-directional model. By conceiving the relationship as bi-directional it is possible to extend Pierson’s increasing returns theory to the neoliberal era, mostly after the 1980s, when welfare states of the rich democracies saw many forms of retrenchment. By testing a bi-directional theory using bi-directional models, this paper argues that public opinion likely updated in response to retrenchment and contributes to a new lock-in effect of institutionalized retrenchment paths. The models use ISSP data and a measure of the size of the welfare state based on SOCX spending data combined with a neoliberal indicator form the Fraser institute for the period 1990-2016 across the rich democracies for which data are available.

Published
2020

22. The Swedish paradox explained? Investigating the role of economic inequality and risk perceptions in the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic

Author

Heukamp, Lisa, Breznau, Nate, and Nguyen, Hung

Subjects
bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology|Inequality, Poverty, and Mobility, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology|Inequality and Stratification
Abstract

Economic inequality is understood as a country-level risk factor that increases the spread of infectious diseases. The Novel Coronavirus presents somewhat contradictory evidence of this because the most equal countries in the world experienced deaths per capita as high as the most unequal. We label this the ‘Swedish paradox’. We theorize that inequality has a non-linear association with disease spread because of risk perceptions among the public. Risk perceptions that are extreme in either direction – toward nonchalance or outright panic – lead to behaviors that increase infection1. Highly equal countries like Sweden had very low risk perceptions at the beginning of the pandemic and this may have led to individual and public actions that increase infection risk. To test this, we modeled the role of economic inequality on infection through the mediating role of risk perceptions in April, in 74 countries. We measured the intensity of the outbreak and government interventions in March as key predictors of risk perceptions. This lets us identify ‘over’ or ‘under’ concern and whether these extremes in the distribution of risk perceptions predicts infection increase in May, measured as death rates with an 18-day lead. We find that inequality has a large linear association with risk perceptions in April (0.50 as a standardized [beta] coefficient). We find that risk perceptions in April have a moderate association with infection increase in May (0.24 beta) and these effects are non-linear. Societies below a disposable income inequality Gini of around 31 were prone to slightly more infection in May as a function of less inequality, whereas societies above 31 were prone to much more infection as a function of more inequality, all else equal. This offers some clarification of the Swedish paradox; however, the biggest effects of inequality on infection occur at the upper end of the distribution meaning inequality is only a small piece of this puzzle.

Published
2020

24. Global Work-Injury Policy Database (GWIP): Project Overview and Codebook

Author

Breznau, Nate and Lanver, Felix

Subjects
Accident Insurance, Welfare State, Work-Injury Law, Industrial Revolution, ddc:300, Workman's Compensation, Workmen's Compensation, Social Insurance, 300 Social sciences, sociology and anthropology
Abstract

The Global Work-Injury Policy Database (GWIP) provides data on the introduction and development of work-injury policy in 186 independent nation states. Work-injury policies were historically known as “workmen’s compensation”, "workman's compensation" and sometimes “accident insurance” among policymakers and scholars. The data include year of introduction of first laws, the types of laws, coverage of blue-collar workers and steps on the path to social insurance laws. Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) 4

Published
2020

25. The welfare state and risk perceptions: the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic and public concern in 70 countries

Author

Breznau, Nate

Subjects
bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Political Science, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Political Science|Comparative Politics, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Political Science|Comparative Politics, Geography, Planning and Development, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Political Science, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology|Civic and Community Engagement, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology|Political Sociology, Demography
Abstract

The novel coronavirus pandemic led individuals to experience heightened social risks, particularly financial and health related. The strength of a welfare state shapes individual risk perceptions under normal circumstances. My research question is whether it also shapes risk perceptions in abnormal disaster scenarios, for example amidst the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. I test this using the data from the global COVIDiSTRESS survey to compare 70 countries in April of 2020, a month where deaths resulting from Covid-19 affected three-quarters of the world’s societies. Controlling for local timing and severity of the pandemic, welfare state strength predicts lower risk perceptions. However, this it is not a universal effect as I expected. The welfare state impact depends on how quickly a government introduced strong ‘lock down’ measures. The longer it took a government to respond the more the welfare state reduces risk perceptions. Governments that took lock down measures in advance of the virus show no variation in risk perceptions, whereas governments that took 30 days to respond have up to a 1.5 standard deviation range of risk perceptions depending on the strength of the welfare state. I conclude that the welfare state matters very much when governments fail to take effective intervention measures in a global emergency.

Published
2020
Full Text
View/download PDF

26. Open Science, aber richtig! Was wir aus der Heinsberg-Studie lernen können

Author

Havemann, Johanna, Breznau, Nate, Peters, Isabella, Mayer, Katja, Fischer, Caroline, Schrögel, Philipp, Heck, Tamara, and Stutz, Hans

Subjects
bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics, MetaArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences, bepress|Medicine and Health Sciences, MetaArXiv|Medicine and Health Sciences, MetaArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Abstract

In Zeiten von Corona wird der Ruf nach Zugang zu akademischem Wissen, öffentlich zugänglichen Daten und Studien und einer transparenten Kommunikation immer lauter – kurzum, ‘Open Science’ ist Teil der öffentlichen Debatte geworden. Gleichzeitig werden genau diese Open Science-Praktiken in der Öffentlichkeit vielfach kritisiert bzw. aus dem Kontext gerissen dargestellt. Wir wollen daher anhand der laufenden Debatten im Spannungsfeld zwischen einer Öffnung der Wissenschaft und einem autoritäten- und faktenbasierten Krisenmanagement den Herausforderungen von guter Open Science-Praxis nachgehen, und die Kritik aber auch die positiven Möglichkeiten für ein neues Wissenschaftsverständnis in den Fokus rücken. //// A review of the events surrounding the Heinsberg Study in Germany and the lessons learned for open science practices and communications. An English version of the paper exists here: https://osf.io/preprints/metaarxiv/axy84/, doi: 10.31222/osf.io/axy84.

Published
2020

27. The Future of Sociology Depends on Open Science

Author

Breznau, Nate

Subjects
bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences
Abstract

Reliability, transparency and ethical crises pushed psychology to reorganize as a discipline over the last decade. Political science also shows signs of reworking itself in response to these crises. Sociology sits on the sidelines. There have not been the same reliability or ethical scandals, at least not in the limelight, nor has there been strong disciplinary moves toward open science. This paper therefore investigates sociology as a discipline looking at current practices, definitions of sociology, positions of sociological associations and a brief consideration of the arguments of three highly influential sociologists: Weber, Merton and Habermas. Based on this disciplinary review, I suggest that sociology is no different from its neighboring disciplines in terms of reliability or ethical dilemmas. Therefore, sociology should adopt open science practices immediately. Weber, Merton and Habermas – three very different social thinkers epistemologically – offer strong arguments that favor what we know as “open science” today. Open science promotes ethics and reliability, reduces fraud and ultimately increases the value of sociology for policymakers and the public. The paper concludes with some basic steps individual researchers can take to move sociology toward open science.

Published
2019

28. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul, Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Berning, Carl, Bernauer, Julian, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bol, Thijs, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian, Damian, Elena, Edelmann, Achim, Ecker, Alejandro, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gaasendam, Chris, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Greinert, Alexander, Groß, Martin, Grömping, Max, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Huth, Nora, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kolczynska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Kurti, Dafina, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan Eliel, Malancu, Natalia Cornelia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, MAYORGA, Oscar Jose, McManus, Patricia, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gergor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Juergen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Striessnig, Erich, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Van Assche, Jasper, van der Linden, Meta, van der Noll, Jolanda, Van Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke Maria Antoinet, Wagner, Kyle, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Zakula, Björn, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Zhang, Nan, and Żółtak, Tomasz

Subjects
Sociologie & sciences sociales [H10] [Sciences sociales & comportementales, psychologie], Open Science, Sociology & social sciences [H10] [Social & behavioral sciences, psychology], Data Science, Replication, Crowdsourcing, Immigration, Social Policy
Abstract

In an era of mass migration, social scientists, populist parties and social movements raise concerns over the future of immigration-destination societies. What impacts does this have on policy and social solidarity? Comparative cross-national research, relying mostly on secondary data, has findings in different directions. There is a threat of selective model reporting and lack of replicability. The heterogeneity of countries obscures attempts to clearly define data-generating models. P-hacking and HARKing lurk among standard research practices in this area.This project employs crowdsourcing to address these issues. It draws on replication, deliberation, meta-analysis and harnessing the power of many minds at once. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative carries two main goals, (a) to better investigate the linkage between immigration and social policy preferences across countries, and (b) to develop crowdsourcing as a social science method. The Executive Report provides short reviews of the area of social policy preferences and immigration, and the methods and impetus behind crowdsourcing plus a description of the entire project. Three main areas of findings will appear in three papers, that are registered as PAPs or in process.

Published
2019

29. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences using MetaScience. Executive Report

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Steiber, Nadia, Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, and Steiber, Nadia

Abstract

In an era of mass migration, social scientists, populist parties and social movements raise concerns over the future of immigration-destination societies. What impacts does this have on policy and social solidarity? Comparative cross-national research, relying mostly on secondary data, has findings in different directions. There is a threat of selective model reporting and lack of replicability. The heterogeneity of countries obscures attempts to clearly define data-generating models. P-hacking and HARKing lurk among standard research practices in this area. This project employs crowdsourcing to address these issues. It draws on replication, deliberation, meta-analysis and harnessing the power of many minds at once. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative carries two main goals, (a) to better investigate the linkage between immigration and social policy preferences across countries, and (b) to develop crowdsourcing as a social science method. The Executive Report provides short reviews of the area of social policy preferences and immigration, and the methods and impetus behind crowdsourcing plus a description of the entire project. Three main areas of findings will appear in three papers, that are registered as PAPs or in process.

Published
2019
Full Text
View/download PDF

30. Anti-Immigrant Parties and Western European Society: Analyzing the Role of Immigration and Forecasting Voting

Author

Breznau, Nate

Subjects
Sociology, Political Science, FOS: Political science, Comparative Politics, Demography, Population, and Ecology, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Politics and Social Change, FOS: Sociology
Abstract

This paper analyzes and predicts the trajectory of immigration and anti-immigration parties in Western Europe from 1962 to 2035. Immigration increased steadily until the 2000s when it reached unprecedented levels. By 2017, countries in Western Europe average 11% of votes cast for anti-immigrant parties. The percentage of the population that are first generation immigrants predicts between 50 and 94% of the variance in these votes across countries in Western Europe. Using methods of vector autoregression this paper analyzes the statistically causal role of immigration for predicting voting. Then using multilevel time-series models and qualitative cohort adjustments it forecasts both immigration and voting. Even the most conservative predictions suggest over 15% of the vote going to anti-immigrant parties by 2035. Given Europe’s aging population and declining productivity, continued immigration to fill jobs among several segments of the labor market is necessary. This paper discusses the implications for the future of Europe drawing on theories of group dynamics and empirical research on politics and societies. (paper in the publication process, results not altered since the day before the Italian election to preserve scientific integrity).

Published
2018

31. Urban Fiscal Crisis and Local Emergency Management: Tracking the Color Line in Michigan

Author

Breznau, Nate and Kirkpatrick, L.

Subjects
Race and Ethnicity, Sociology, Geography, Political Science, FOS: Political science, American Politics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Urban Studies and Planning, health care economics and organizations, Politics and Social Change, FOS: Sociology
Abstract

The usage of emergency management by United States’ state-level governments to resolve troubled municipal finances increased dramatically over the past three decades. Layoffs, school closings, pension renegotiations, and sale of public assets are the product of such policies, and these policies unevenly affect black residents. Recent legal decisions argue this is an innocent byproduct of black concentration in fiscally distressed cities. Thus, targeted emergency intervention is colorblind in its application, and any race-bias is mere statistical discrimination among fiscally-challenged areas. We investigate this assertion, asking if racially inequitable outcomes signal differential impact on, or differential treatment of black people. We investigate Michigan, the site of the country’s most intensive emergency management deployments. Using all politically incorporated units in Michigan, 2007-2013, we develop a counterfactual test using the state’s own fiscal distress scale and adjusting for percentage black and median household income of each unit. We find a net effect of the percentage of black residents on the likelihood of emergency management after adjusting for fiscal distress. If correctly specified, our model gives evidence that racial bias was a factor in the application of emergency management – that units in Michigan with similar fiscal distress levels were more likely to get emergency management if they had higher black populations, all else equal. We cannot identify the specific micro-mechanisms at play, meaning we cannot conclude if any actors in the process had race-biased intentions, and we discuss the meaning of our findings in light of this.

Published
2018

32. Positive Returns and Equilibrium: Simultaneous Feedback Between Public Opinion and Social Policy

Author

Breznau, Nate

Subjects
bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Political Science|Comparative Politics, Political Science, FOS: Political science, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Political Science, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology|Civic and Community Engagement, Political Sociology, Social and Behavioral Sciences, FOS: Sociology, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Political Science, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Political Science|Comparative Politics, Sociology, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences, Comparative Politics, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology|Political Sociology
Abstract

This paper pushes forward political research from across disciplines seeking to understand the linkages between public opinion and social policy in democracies. It considers the thermostatic and the increasing returns perspectives as pointing toward a potentially stable set of effects running between opinion and policy. Both theoretical perspectives argue that opinion and policy are reciprocally causal, feeding back on one another. This is a general argument found in opinion-policy literatures. However, much empirical research claims to model “feedback” effects when actually using separate unidirectional models of opinion and policy. Only a small body of research addresses opinion-policy endogeneity directly. In this paper I consider an opinion-policy system with simultaneous feedback and without lags. I argue that there is a theoretical equilibrium in the relationship of opinion and policy underlying the otherwise cyclical processes that link them. Given that available cross-national data are cross-sectional and provide limited degrees of freedom, an ideal theoretical model must be somewhat constrained in order to arrive at empirically meaningful results. In this challenging and exploratory undertaking I hope to open up the possibility of a general system of effects between public opinion and social policy and how to model them in future research. I focus on social welfare policy as it is highly salient to public interests and a costly area of government budgets, making it an area of contentious policymaking. Social policy is also a major part of the thermostatic model of opinion and policy, which was recently extended to the cross-national comparative context (Wlezien & Soroka, 2012) providing a critical predecessor to this paper because identification of equilibrium between public opinion and social policy in any given society is greatly enhanced through comparison with other societies. This counterfactual approach helps to identify opinion-policy patterns that may not change much within societies, but can be seen as taking on discrete trajectories between societies.

Published
2018

34. Simultaneous Feedback Models with Macro-Comparative Cross-Sectional Data

Author

Breznau, Nate and Breznau, Nate

Abstract

Social scientists often work with theories of reciprocal causality. Sometimes theories suggest that reciprocal causes work simultaneously, or work on a time-scale small enough to make them appear simultaneous. Researchers may employ simultaneous feedback models to investigate such theories, although the practice is rare in cross-sectional survey research. This paper discusses the certain conditions that make these models possible if not desirable using such data. This methodological excursus covers the construction of simultaneous feedback models using a structural equation modeling perspective. This allows the researcher to test if a simultaneous feedback theory fits survey data, test competing hypotheses and engage in macro-comparisons. This paper presents methods in a manner and language amenable to the practicing social scientist who is not a statistician or matrix mathematician. It demonstrates how to run models using three popular software programs (MPlus, Stata and R), and an empirical example using International Social Survey Program data.

Published
2018

35. The Limits of Income Inequality: Public Support for Social Policy across Rich Democracies

Author

Breznau, Nate and Hommerich, Carola

Subjects
Human Rights, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology|Peace, War, and Social Conflict, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology|Human Rights, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology|Collective Behavior and Social Movements, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology|Politics and Social Change, Political Economy of the World System, Altruism, Morality, and Social Solidarity, Peace, War, and Social Conflict, Social and Behavioral Sciences, FOS: Sociology, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology|Altruism, Morality, and Social Solidarity, Sociology, public opinion, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences, Collective Behavior and Social Movements, liberalization, social welfare policy, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology|Political Economy of the World System, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences, Income inequality, welfare state
Abstract

Does public opinion react to inequality, and if so, how? The social harms caused by increasing inequality should cause public opinion to ramp up demand for social welfare protections. However, the public may react to inequality differently depending on institutional context. Using ISSP and WID data (1980-2006) we tested these claims. In liberal institutional contexts (mostly English-speaking), increasing income inequality predicted higher support for state provision of social welfare. In coordinated and universalist contexts (mostly of Europe), increasing inequality predicted less support. Historically higher income concentration predicted less public support, providing an account of the large variation in inequality within the respective liberal and coordinated contexts. The results suggest opinions in liberal societies – especially with higher historical inequality – reached the limits of inequality, reacting negatively; whereas in coordinated/universalist societies – especially with lower historical inequality – opinions moved positively, as if desiring more inequality.

Published
2017
Full Text
View/download PDF

36. Immigration and the welfare state : a cross-regional analysis of European welfare attitudes

Author

Eger, Maureen A., Breznau, Nate, Eger, Maureen A., and Breznau, Nate

Abstract

A growing body of research connects diversity to anti-welfare attitudes and lower levels of social welfare expenditure, yet most evidence comes from analyses of US states or comparisons of the United States to Europe. Comparative analyses of European nation-states, however, yield little evidence that immigration – measured at the country-level – reduces support for national welfare state programs. This is not surprising, given that research suggests that the impact of diversity occurs at smaller, sub-national geographic units. Therefore, in this article, we test the hypothesis that immigration undermines welfare attitudes by assessing the impact of immigration measured at the regional-level on individual-level support for redistribution, a comprehensive welfare state, and immigrants’ social rights. To do this, we combine data from the European Social Survey with a unique regional dataset compiled from national censuses, Eurostat, and the European Election Database (13 countries, 114 regions, and 23,213 individuals). Utilizing multilevel modeling, we find a negative relationship between regional percent foreign-born and support for redistribution as well as between regional percent foreign-born and support for a comprehensive welfare state. Objective immigration, however, does not increase opposition to immigrants’ social rights (i.e. welfare chauvinism). We discuss the implications of these results and conclude that traditional welfare state attitudes and welfare chauvinism are distinct phenomena that should not be conflated in future research.

Published
2017
Full Text
View/download PDF

37. Immigrant presence, group boundaries, and support for the welfare state in Western European societies

Author

Breznau, Nate, Eger, Maureen A., Breznau, Nate, and Eger, Maureen A.

Abstract

The intersection of group dynamics and socioeconomic status theories is applied as a framework for the puzzling relationship of immigration and support for the welfare state in Western Europe. Group dynamics theories suggest that how individuals define their group boundaries moderates the impact of immigration on support for the welfare state. Immigrant presence should have the strongest effects for those with exclusive national group boundaries; weaker for those with conditionally inclusive boundaries based on reciprocity; and weakest or non-existent for those with inclusive group boundaries. Group boundaries should interact with material self-interest, leading individuals with less material security who are more likely to face social risks to be more supportive of the welfare state. Using data from the 4th European Social Survey linked to regional and national data, we find that group boundary salience plays a large moderating role in the relationship between immigration and native support for the welfare state, and that this role is intricately linked to material self-interest. Group dynamics should therefore be viewed in conjunction with existing structural welfare state theories as opposed to an alternative or isolated mechanism.

Published
2016
Full Text
View/download PDF

38. Die Demoskopie und die Sozialpolitik

Author

Breznau, Nate, Kelley, Jonathan, Mau, Steffen, and Groh-Samberg, Olaf

Subjects
European Social Survey, ideology, neo-institutionalism, mass attitudes, ethnic diversity, International Survey of Economic Attitudes, individualism, structural equation modeling, Social policy, welfare, International Social Survey Program, reciprocal causality, self-interest, public opinion, values, ddc:300, institutions, institutionalism, social norms, 300 Social sciences, sociology and anthropology, attitude formation, Communism, corporatism
Abstract

An investigation of public opinion and social policy. This dissertation looks at how attitudes toward social welfare policies are formed, and their reciprocal relationship with spending on welfare. The perspective is cross-national and looks at the most advanced democracies in the world, plus two formerly Communist countries. The dissertation utilizes theoretical frameworks from sociology, social psychology and political science. It concludes that self-interest, group dynamics and ideology are driving forces behind opinion and attitude formation, although ideology may be even more important. Also, that social norms related to Communism or socialism, individualism and corporatism shape public opinions. Finally, it concludes that although public opinion probably has an impact on social policy, this does not appear to be a general impact across democratic societies. Instead, institutional norms align opinion and policy into a cross-national pattern. The stability of social spending indicates that path dependency of policy impacts the otherwise erratic nature of public opinion.

Published
2013

40. Public Opinion and Social Policy

Author

Breznau, Nate and Breznau, Nate

Abstract

An investigation of public opinion and social policy. This dissertation looks at how attitudes toward social welfare policies are formed, and their reciprocal relationship with spending on welfare. The perspective is cross-national and looks at the most advanced democracies in the world, plus two formerly Communist countries. The dissertation utilizes theoretical frameworks from sociology, social psychology and political science. It concludes that self-interest, group dynamics and ideology are driving forces behind opinion and attitude formation, although ideology may be even more important. Also, that social norms related to Communism or socialism, individualism and corporatism shape public opinions. Finally, it concludes that although public opinion probably has an impact on social policy, this does not appear to be a general impact across democratic societies. Instead, institutional norms align opinion and policy into a cross-national pattern. The stability of social spending indicates that path dependency of policy impacts the otherwise erratic nature of public opinion.

41. Public Opinion and Social Policy

Author

Breznau, Nate and Breznau, Nate

Abstract

An investigation of public opinion and social policy. This dissertation looks at how attitudes toward social welfare policies are formed, and their reciprocal relationship with spending on welfare. The perspective is cross-national and looks at the most advanced democracies in the world, plus two formerly Communist countries. The dissertation utilizes theoretical frameworks from sociology, social psychology and political science. It concludes that self-interest, group dynamics and ideology are driving forces behind opinion and attitude formation, although ideology may be even more important. Also, that social norms related to Communism or socialism, individualism and corporatism shape public opinions. Finally, it concludes that although public opinion probably has an impact on social policy, this does not appear to be a general impact across democratic societies. Instead, institutional norms align opinion and policy into a cross-national pattern. The stability of social spending indicates that path dependency of policy impacts the otherwise erratic nature of public opinion.

42. Public Opinion and Social Policy

Author

Breznau, Nate and Breznau, Nate

Abstract

An investigation of public opinion and social policy. This dissertation looks at how attitudes toward social welfare policies are formed, and their reciprocal relationship with spending on welfare. The perspective is cross-national and looks at the most advanced democracies in the world, plus two formerly Communist countries. The dissertation utilizes theoretical frameworks from sociology, social psychology and political science. It concludes that self-interest, group dynamics and ideology are driving forces behind opinion and attitude formation, although ideology may be even more important. Also, that social norms related to Communism or socialism, individualism and corporatism shape public opinions. Finally, it concludes that although public opinion probably has an impact on social policy, this does not appear to be a general impact across democratic societies. Instead, institutional norms align opinion and policy into a cross-national pattern. The stability of social spending indicates that path dependency of policy impacts the otherwise erratic nature of public opinion.

43. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H.V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik K., Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes N., Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin B., Carlos-Castillo, Juan, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignácz, Zsófia S., Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Kurti Sinatra, Dafina, Langenkamp, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan E., Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar J., McManus, Patricia, McWagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna O., Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel R., Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian, Vagni, Giacomo, Van Assche, Jasper, van der Linden, Meta, van der Noll, Jolanda, Van Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H.V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik K., Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes N., Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin B., Carlos-Castillo, Juan, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignácz, Zsófia S., Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Kurti Sinatra, Dafina, Langenkamp, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan E., Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar J., McManus, Patricia, McWagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna O., Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel R., Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian, Vagni, Giacomo, Van Assche, Jasper, van der Linden, Meta, van der Noll, Jolanda, Van Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, and Żółtak, Tomasz

Abstract

This study explores how researchers' analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers' expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team's workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers' results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.

44. Science by press conference: what the Heinsberg Study on COVID-19 demonstrates about the dangers of fast, open science.

Author

Breznau, Nate and Breznau, Nate

Abstract

COVID-19 has accelerated calls for fast, open science to inform policy responses. However, when contradictory or false results become public, the negative consequences of this becomes hard to contain. Nate Breznau discusses the Heinsberg Study into COVID-19, outlining how the lack of appropriate scientific scrutiny led to policy responses that were misinformed and dangerous. Breznau argues that for fast science to be reliable, it needs to be underscored by access and transparency. Otherwise, it risks becoming fake news.

45. The replication crisis has led to positive structural, procedural, and community changes

Author

Korbmacher, Max, Azevedo, Flavio, Pennington, Charlotte R., Hartmann, Helena, Pownall, Madeleine, Schmidt, Kathleen, Elsherif, Mahmoud, Breznau, Nate, Robertson, Olly, Kalandadze, Tamara, Yu, Shijun, Baker, Bradley J., O’Mahony, Aoife, Olsnes, Jørgen Ø. -S., Shaw, John J., Gjoneska, Biljana, Yamada, Yuki, Röer, Jan P., Murphy, Jennifer, Alzahawi, Shilaan, Grinschgl, Sandra, Oliveira, Catia M., Wingen, Tobias, Yeung, Siu Kit, Liu, Meng, König, Laura M., Albayrak-Aydemir, Nihan, Lecuona, Oscar, Micheli, Leticia, Evans, Thomas, Korbmacher, Max, Azevedo, Flavio, Pennington, Charlotte R., Hartmann, Helena, Pownall, Madeleine, Schmidt, Kathleen, Elsherif, Mahmoud, Breznau, Nate, Robertson, Olly, Kalandadze, Tamara, Yu, Shijun, Baker, Bradley J., O’Mahony, Aoife, Olsnes, Jørgen Ø. -S., Shaw, John J., Gjoneska, Biljana, Yamada, Yuki, Röer, Jan P., Murphy, Jennifer, Alzahawi, Shilaan, Grinschgl, Sandra, Oliveira, Catia M., Wingen, Tobias, Yeung, Siu Kit, Liu, Meng, König, Laura M., Albayrak-Aydemir, Nihan, Lecuona, Oscar, Micheli, Leticia, and Evans, Thomas

Abstract

The emergence of large-scale replication projects yielding successful rates substantially lower than expected caused the behavioural, cognitive, and social sciences to experience a so-called ‘replication crisis’. In this Perspective, we reframe this ‘crisis’ through the lens of a credibility revolution, focusing on positive structural, procedural and community-driven changes. Second, we outline a path to expand ongoing advances and improvements. The credibility revolution has been an impetus to several substantive changes which will have a positive, long-term impact on our research environment.

Catalog

Books, media, physical & digital resources
See catalog results