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Background: Sex-specific differences regarding the transmissibility and the course of infection are the rule rather than the exception in the epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Human papillomavirus (HPV) provides an example: disease outcomes differ between men and women, as does the potential for transmission to the opposite sex. HPV vaccination of preadolescent girls was recently introduced in many countries, and inclusion of boys in the vaccination programs is being discussed. Here, we address the question of whether vaccinating females only, males only, or both sexes is the most effective strategy to reduce the population prevalence of an STI like HPV.Methods and Findings: We use a range of two-sex transmission models with varying detail to identify general criteria for allocating a prophylactic vaccine between both sexes. The most effective reduction in the population prevalence of infection is always achieved by single-sex vaccination; vaccinating the sex with the highest prevaccine prevalence is the preferred strategy in most circumstances. Exceptions arise only when the higher prevaccine prevalence is due to a substantially lower rate of natural immunity, or when natural immunity is lifelong, and a prolonged duration of infectiousness coincides with increased transmissibility. Predictions from simple models were confirmed in simulations based on an elaborate HPV transmission model. Our analysis suggests that relatively inefficient genital transmission from males to females might render male vaccination more effective in reducing overall infection levels. However, most existing HPV vaccination programs have achieved sufficient coverage to continue with female-only vaccination.Conclusions: Increasing vaccine uptake among preadolescent girls is more effective in reducing HPV infection than including boys in existing vaccination programs. As a rule, directing prophylactic immunization at the sex with the highest prevaccine prevalence results in the largest reduction of the population prevalence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is the most common cause of antibiotic-associated diarrhoea. Fidaxomicin and fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) are effective, but expensive therapies to treat recurrent CDI (reCDI). Our objective was to develop a prediction model for reCDI based on the gut microbiota composition and clinical characteristics, to identify patients who could benefit from early treatment with fidaxomicin or FMT., Methods: Multicentre, prospective, observational study in adult patients diagnosed with a primary episode of CDI. Fecal samples and clinical data were collected prior to, and after 5 days of CDI treatment. Follow-up duration was 8 weeks. Microbiota composition was analysed by IS-pro, a bacterial profiling technique based on phylum- and species-specific differences in the 16-23 S interspace regions of ribosomal DNA. Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) and adaptive group-regularized logistic ridge regression (AGRR) were used to construct prediction models for reCDI., Results: 209 patients were included, of which 25% developed reCDI. Variables related to microbiota composition provided better prediction of reCDI and were preferentially selected over clinical factors in joint prediction models. Bacteroidetes abundance and diversity after start of CDI treatment, and the increase in Proteobacteria diversity relative to baseline, were the most robust predictors of reCDI. The sensitivity and specificity of a BART model including these factors were 95% and 78%, but these dropped to 67% and 62% in out-of-sample prediction., Conclusion: Early microbiota response to CDI treatment is a better predictor of reCDI than clinical prognostic factors, but not yet sufficient enough to predict reCDI in daily practice., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Objective: To assess the preliminary effectiveness of three-dimensional printed orthoses compared with conventionally custom-fabricated orthoses in persons with chronic hand conditions on performance of daily activities, hand function, quality of life, satisfaction, and production time and costs., Design: Interventional feasibility study., Subjects: Chronic hand orthotic users (n = 21)., Methods: Participants received a new three-dimensional printed orthosis according to the same type as their current orthosis, which served as the control condition. Primary outcome was performance of daily activities (Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System-Upper Extremity; Michigan Hand Questionnaire). Secondary outcomes were hand function, quality of life, and satisfaction. Furthermore, production time and costs were recorded., Results: At 4 months' follow-up, no significant differences were found between three-dimensional printed orthoses and participants' existing conventional orthoses on activity performance, hand function, and quality of life. Satisfaction with the three-dimensional printed orthosis was significantly higher and the production time and costs for three-dimensional printed orthoses were significantly lower compared with conventional orthoses. The three-dimensional printed orthosis was preferred by 79% of the participants., Conclusions: This feasibility study in chronic hand conditions suggests that three-dimensional printed orthoses are similar to conventional orthoses in terms of activity performance, hand function, and quality of life. Satisfaction, and production time and costs favoured the three-dimensional printed hand orthoses.

The multi-factorial involvement of gut microbiota with Crohn's disease (CD) necessitates robust analysis to uncover possible associations with particular microbes. CD has been linked to specific bacteria, but reported associations vary widely across studies. This inconsistency may result from heterogeneous associations across individual patients, resulting in no apparent or only weak relationships with the means of bacterial abundances. We investigated the relationship between bacterial relative abundances and disease activity in a longitudinal cohort of CD patients ( n  = 57) and healthy controls ( n  = 15). We applied quantile regression, a statistical technique that allows investigation of possible relationships outside the mean response. We found several significant and mostly negative associations with CD, especially in lower quantiles of relative abundance on family or genus level. Associations found by quantile regression deviated from the mean response in relative abundances of Coriobacteriaceae, Pasteurellaceae, Peptostreptococcaceae, Prevotellaceae, and Ruminococcaceae. For the family Streptococcaceae we found a significant elevation in relative abundance for patients experiencing an exacerbation relative to those who remained without self-reported symptoms or measurable inflammation. Our analysis suggests that specific bacterial families are related to CD and exacerbation, but associations vary between patients due to heterogeneity in disease course, medication history, therapy response, gut microbiota composition and historical contingency. Our study underscores that microbial diversity is reduced in the gut of CD patients, but suggests that the process of diversity loss is rather irregular with respect to specific taxonomic groups. This novel insight may advance our ecological understanding of this complex disease.

Background: Cervical cancer is a major public health problem in India, where access to prevention programmes is low. The WHO-Strategic Advisory Group of Experts recently updated their recommendation for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to include a single-dose option in addition to the two-dose option, which could make HPV vaccination programmes easier to implement and more affordable., Methods: We combined projections from a type-specific HPV transmission model and a cancer progression model to assess the health and economic effects of HPV vaccination at national and state level in India. The models used national and state-specific Indian demographic, epidemiological and cost data, and single-dose vaccine efficacy and immunogenicity data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer India vaccine trial with 10-year follow-up. We compared single-dose and two-dose HPV vaccination for a range of plausible scenarios regarding single-dose vaccine protection, coverage and catch-up. We used a healthcare sector payer perspective with a time horizon of 100 years., Results: Under the base-case scenario of lifelong protection of single-dose vaccination in 10-year-old girls with 90% coverage, the discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of nationwide vaccination relative to no vaccination was US$406 (₹INR30 000) per DALY (disability-adjusted life-years) averted. This lay below an opportunity-cost-based threshold of 30% Indian gross domestic product per capita in each Indian state (state-specific ICER range: US$67-US$593 per DALY averted). The ICER of two-dose vaccination versus no vaccination vaccination was US$1404 (₹INR104 000). The ICER of two-dose vaccination versus single-dose vaccination, assuming lower initial efficacy and waning of single-dose vaccination, was at least US$2282 (₹INR169 000) per DALY averted., Conclusions: Nationwide introduction of single-dose HPV vaccination at age 10 in India is highly likely to be cost-effective whereas extending the number of doses from one to two would have a less favourable profile., Competing Interests: Competing interests: JB has received support to his institution from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO) outside the submitted work. All other authors have no conflicts of interests to declare., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Infectious diseases often involve multiple pathogen species or multiple strains of the same pathogen. As such, knowledge of how different pathogens interact is key to understand and predict the outcome of interventions targeting only a subset of species or strains involved in disease. Population-level data may be useful to infer pathogen strain interactions, but most previously used inference methods only consider uniform interactions between all strains or focus on marginal pairwise interactions. As such, these methods are prone to bias induced by indirect interactions through other strains. Here, we evaluated statistical network inference for reconstructing heterogeneous interactions from cross-sectional surveys detecting joint presence/absence patterns of pathogen strains within hosts. We applied various network models to simulated survey data, representing endemic infection states of multiple pathogen strains with potential interactions in acquisition or clearance of infection. Satisfactory performance was demonstrated by the estimators converging to the true interactions. Accurate reconstruction of interaction networks was achieved by regularization or penalization for sample size. Although performance deteriorated in the presence of host heterogeneity, this was overcome by correcting for individual-level risk factors. Our work demonstrates how statistical network inference could prove useful for detecting multi-strain pathogen interactions and may have applications beyond epidemiology.

Introduction: For idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIM) ('myositis') standard initial treatment is high-dosed glucocorticoids, which results in relatively slow improvement of muscle strength. Early immunosuppression or modulation by intensive treatment ('hit-early, hit-hard') may induce faster reduction of disease activity and prevent chronic disability due to disease-induced structural muscle damage. Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg) in addition to standard glucocorticoid treatment may be promising in this regard as was shown in various studies: add-on IVIg improved symptoms and muscle strength in refractory myositis patients and monotherapy IVIg improved outcomes after 9 weeks, in about half of treatment-naive patients., Hypothesis: We hypothesise that early add-on IVIg leads to a greater clinical response after 12 weeks in patients with newly diagnosed myositis, in comparison to prednisone monotherapy. Second, we expect that early treatment with add-on IVIg leads to a faster time to improvement and sustained positive effects on multiple secondary outcomes., Methods: The Time Is Muscle trial is a phase-2 double-blind placebo-controlled randomised trial. Forty-eight patients with IIM will be treated with IVIg or placebo at baseline (within 1 week after diagnosis) and after 4 and 8 weeks, in addition to standard therapy with prednisone. The primary outcome is the Total Improvement Score (TIS) of the myositis response criteria at 12 weeks. At baseline, and after 4, 8, 12, 26 and 52 weeks, relevant secondary outcomes will be assessed, including time to moderate improvement (TIS≥40), mean daily prednisone dosage, physical activity, health-related quality of life, fatigue and MRI muscle imaging parameters., Ethics and Dissemination: Ethical approval was obtained from the medical ethics committee of the Academic Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands (2020_180; including a first amendment approval at the 12 April 2023; A2020_180_0001). The results will be distributed through conference presentations and peer-reviewed publications., Trial Registration Number: EU Clinical trials register (2020-001710-37)., Competing Interests: Competing interests: RGK, JAB, SWE, HAWW, CdB, JCACdK, CV and MM report no competing interests. MdV is a member of the Data Monitoring Committee of Novartis Pharma AG and chair of the Independent Data Monitoring Committee of Dynacure. FE reports grants from ZonMw (Dutch Governmental Agency) and Prinses Beatrix Spierfonds. He also reports grants from CSL Behring, Kedrion, Terumo BCT and Takeda Pharmaceutical Company. INvS chaired a steering committee for a CSL-Behring study investigating the safety and efficacy of SCIg in CIDP and received departmental honoraria for serving on scientific advisory boards for CSL-Behring and Kedrion. He received departmental research support from The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research, and from the Dutch Prinses Beatrix Spierfonds. All lecturing and consulting fees for I.S were donated to the Stichting Klinische Neurologie, a local foundation that supports research in the field of neurological disorders. He served on the editorial board of the Cochrane Neuromuscular Disease Group, was a member of the organising committee of the Inflammatory Neuropathy Consortium (INC), a standing committee of the Peripheral Nerve Society and was a member of the Scientific Board of the Kreuth III meeting on the optimal use of plasma-derived medicinal products, especially coagulation factors and normal immunoglobulins organised under the auspices of the European Directorate for the Quality of Medicines & HealthCare (EDQM). AJvdK received departmental honoraria for serving on a scientific advisory board for ArgenX. JR received departmental research support from the Dutch Prinses Beatrix Spierfonds, Dutch ALS foundation, Sanquin Plasma Products and Top Sector Life Science and Health., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Human microbiome research is helped by the characterization of microbial networks, as these may reveal key microbes that can be targeted for beneficial health effects. Prevailing methods of microbial network characterization are based on measures of association, often applied to limited sampling points in time. Here, we demonstrate the potential of wavelet clustering, a technique that clusters time series based on similarities in their spectral characteristics. We illustrate this technique with synthetic time series and apply wavelet clustering to densely sampled human gut microbiome time series. We compare our results with hierarchical clustering based on temporal correlations in abundance, within and across individuals, and show that the cluster trees obtained by using either method are significantly different in terms of elements clustered together, branching structure and total branch length. By capitalizing on the dynamic nature of the human microbiome, wavelet clustering reveals community structures that remain obscured in correlation-based methods., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: The first HPV-vaccine eligible cohorts in the Netherlands will enter the cervical screening program in 2023. However, a substantial number of young women already have had a cervical sample taken before entry into the regular screening program. This study was initiated to explore early effects of HPV vaccination on detection of cytological abnormalities in cervical samples of women younger than the screening age., Methods: Results of cervical samples were obtained from the Dutch National Pathology Databank (PALGA) and were linked to the women's HPV vaccination status from the national vaccination registry (Praeventis) (N = 42,171). Occurrence of low-grade and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions or worse (LSIL and HSIL+) and high-risk HPV positive tests (hrHPV) in the first cervical sample were compared between vaccinated and unvaccinated women by multivariable logistic regression analysis, corrected for age at cervical sampling and age of vaccination (12/13 years, ≥ = 14 years)., Results: For fully vaccinated women (three- or two-dose schedule), statistically significant reductions were seen for all outcomes compared to unvaccinated women (hrHPV: adjusted OR, 0.70, 95% CI, 0.63-0.79; LSIL: 0.70, 0.61-0.80; HSIL+: 0.39, 0.30-0.51)., Conclusions: By linking nation-wide registries on pathology and vaccination, we show significant beneficial early effects of HPV-vaccination on LSIL, HSIL+, CIN3/AIS/carcinoma and hrHPV detection in young women upto 24 years of age who have a cervical sample taken before entry into the cervical cancer screening program., (© 2023 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Genital human papillomavirus (HPV) infections are caused by a broad diversity of genotypes. As available vaccines target a subgroup of these genotypes, monitoring transmission dynamics of nonvaccine genotypes is essential. After reviewing the epidemiological literature on study designs aiming to monitor those dynamics, we evaluated their abilities to detect HPV-prevalence changes following vaccine introduction. We developed an agent-based model to simulate HPV transmission in a heterosexual population under various scenarios of vaccine coverage and genotypic interaction, and reproduced two study designs: post- vs. -prevaccine and vaccinated- vs. -unvaccinated comparisons. We calculated the total sample size required to detect statistically significant prevalence differences at the 5% significance level and 80% power. Although a decrease in vaccine-genotype prevalence was detectable as early as 1 year after vaccine introduction, simulations indicated that the indirect impact on nonvaccine-genotype prevalence (a decrease under synergistic interaction or an increase under competitive interaction) would only be measurable after >10 years whatever the vaccine coverage. Sample sizes required for nonvaccine genotypes were >5 times greater than for vaccine genotypes and tended to be smaller in the post- vs. -prevaccine than in the vaccinated- vs. -unvaccinated design. These results highlight that previously published epidemiological studies were not powerful enough to efficiently detect changes in nonvaccine-genotype prevalence.

Little is known about the long-term association between high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) test results in women participating in a hrHPV-based cervical cancer screening program. To address this question, we collected data of 2217 women who participated in the POBASCAM hrHPV-based screening trial (enrolment 1999/2002) and also attended the Dutch hrHPV-based screening program between January 2017 and March 2018. Among 143 women who tested hrHPV-positive in 1999/2002, 45 (31.5%) had ≥ CIN2 or hysterectomy before 2017 and 17 (11.9%) tested hrHPV-positive at the 2017/2018 screen. In comparison, among 2074 women who tested hrHPV-negative in 1999/2002, 10 (0.5%) had ≥ CIN2 or hysterectomy before 2017 and 119 (5.7%) tested hrHPV-positive at the 2017/2018 screen. It follows that in the group of women who were not treated for ≥ CIN2 or had a hysterectomy in between the two screens 15 years apart (N = 2162), women who were hrHPV-positive in 1999/2002 had a higher risk of being hrHPV-positive in 2017/2018 than those who were hrHPV-negative in 1999/2002 (OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.8-6.1). A similar association was found at the genotype level for genotype-concordant results (5.1, 1.0-11.3) and for genotype non-concordant results (3.7, 1.6-6.7). Women who were hrHPV-positive in 2017/2018 had a higher risk of CIN3 after a hrHPV-positive result in 1999/2002 than after a hrHPV-negative result (5.8, 1.0-27.8). In conclusion, a positive hrHPV result in screening gives a long-term increased risk of a hrHPV-positive result, also for different genotypes, and a long-term increased risk of CIN3. This supports the concept of risk-stratification in hrHPV-based cervical cancer screening where previous hrHPV results are included in screening recommendations., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest CJLMM and DAMH declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: CJLMM is minority shareholder and part-time CEO of Self-screen B.V., a spin-off company of Amsterdam UMC, location VUMC, which develops, manufactures and licenses high-risk HPV assays and methylation marker assays for cervical cancer screening and holds patents on these tests. CJLMM formerly had a small number of shares of Qiagen and MDXHealth. He has received consultancy fees from GlaxoSmithKline, Qiagen, Sanofi Pasteur MSD/Merck, and Asieris/Ismar Healthcare NV, and served occasionally on the scientific advisory boards (expert meetings) of these companies. DAMH is minority shareholder of Self-screen B.V. The other authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Unraveling the network of interactions in ecological communities is a daunting task. Common methods to infer interspecific interactions from cross-sectional data are based on co-occurrence measures. For instance, interactions in the human microbiome are often inferred from correlations between the abundances of bacterial phylogenetic groups across subjects. We tested whether such correlation-based methods are indeed reliable for inferring interaction networks. For this purpose, we simulated bacterial communities by means of the generalized Lotka-Volterra model, with variation in model parameters representing variability among hosts. Our results show that correlations can be indicative for presence of bacterial interactions, but only when measurement noise is low relative to the variation in interaction strengths between hosts. Indication of interaction was affected by type of interaction network, process noise and sampling under non-equilibrium conditions. The sign of a correlation mostly coincided with the nature of the strongest pairwise interaction, but this is not necessarily the case. For instance, under rare conditions of identical interaction strength, we found that competitive and exploitative interactions can result in positive as well as negative correlations. Thus, cross-sectional abundance data carry limited information on specific interaction types. Correlations in abundance may hint at interactions but require independent validation., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: In human papillomavirus (HPV)-based cervical screening programs, management of HPV-positive women with normal cytology is debated. Longitudinal information on HPV type persistence may be employed for risk stratification., Methods: We assessed the risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) after repeatedly testing positive for the same HPV type(s) in the randomized population-based screening study Amsterdam (POBASCAM). We compared 18-month CIN3+ risks in HPV-positive women (intervention, n = 1,066) to those in HPV-positive/cytology-negative women who tested HPV-positive in the next screening round (control, n = 111) five years later, stratified for HPV type concordance., Results: The 18-month CIN3+ risk was 15% in HPV-positive women in the intervention group, 40% in the control group after two-round type concordance (relative risk 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.9-3.4), and 20% in the control group after a type switch (1.3, 0.5-3.2). The relative increase in CIN3+ risk after two-round type concordance was similar in <35-year-old (3.0, 2.0-4.4) and older women (2.2, 1.4-3.5), and was high in high-risk HPV-positive women who were HPV16/18/31/33/45-negative in both rounds (9.9, 4.4-21.9)., Conclusions: Five-year HPV type concordance signals high CIN3+ risk and warrants referral for colposcopy without additional cytology triage., Impact: HPV screening programs become highly efficient when HPV-positive women with negative triage testing at baseline are offered repeat HPV genotyping after five years., (©2020 American Association for Cancer Research.)

Background: In many European countries, human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake among girls has remained below target levels, supporting the scope for vaccination of boys. We aimed to investigate if sex-neutral HPV vaccination can be considered cost-effective compared with girls-only vaccination at uptake levels equal to those among girls and under tender-based vaccination costs achieved throughout Europe., Methods: We investigated the cost-effectiveness of sex-neutral HPV vaccination in European tender-based settings. We applied a Bayesian synthesis framework for health economic evaluation to 11 countries (Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Estonia, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden), accommodating country-specific information on key epidemiological and economic parameters, and on current HPV vaccination programmes. We used projections from three independently developed HPV transmission models to tailor region-specific herd effects. The main outcome measures in the comparison of sex-neutral with girls-only vaccination were cancer cases prevented and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), defined as the cost in international dollars (I$) per life-year gained., Findings: The total number of cancer cases to be prevented by vaccinating girls at currently realised vaccine uptake varied from 318 (95% CI 197-405) per cohort of 200 000 preadolescents (100 000 girls plus 100 000 boys) in Croatia (under 20% uptake of the 9-valent vaccine) to 1904 (1741-2101) in Estonia (under 70% uptake of the 9-valent vaccine). Vaccinating boys at equal coverage increased these respective numbers by 168 (95% CI 121-213) in Croatia and 467 (391-587) in Estonia. Sex-neutral vaccination was likely to be cost-effective, with ICERs of sex-neutral compared with girls-only vaccination varying from I$4300 per life-year gained in Latvia (95% credibility interval 3450-5160; 40% uptake) to I$25 720 per life-year gained in Spain (21 380-30 330; 80% uptake). At uniform 80% uptake, a favourable cost-effectiveness profile was retained for most of the countries investigated (Austria, Belgium, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden)., Interpretation: Sex-neutral HPV vaccination is economically attractive in European tender-based settings. However, tendering mechanisms need to ensure that vaccination of boys will remain cost-effective at high vaccine uptake rates., Funding: European Commission 7th Framework Programme and WHO., (Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Human papillomavirus (HPV) epidemiological and vaccine studies require highly sensitive HPV detection systems. The widely used broad-spectrum SPF 10 -DEIA-LiPA 25 (SPF 10 method) has reduced sensitivity toward HPV-45 and -59. Therefore, anogenital samples from the PASSYON study were retrospectively analyzed with type-specific (TS) HPV-45 and -59 real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays. The SPF 10 method missed 51.1% of HPV-45 and 76.1% of HPV-59 infections that were detected by the TS qPCR assays. The viral copy number (VCn) of SPF 10 -missed HPV-45 and -59 was significantly lower than SPF 10 -detected HPV-45 and -59 ( P  < 0.0001 for both HPV types). Sanger sequencing showed no phylogenetic distinction between SPF 10 -missed and SPF 10 -detected HPV-59 variants, but variants bearing the A6562G single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the SPF 10 target region were more likely to be missed ( P  = 0.0392). HPV cooccurrence slightly influenced the detection probability of HPV-45 and -59 with the SPF 10 method. Moreover, HPV-59 detection with the SPF 10 method was hampered more in nonvaccinated women than vaccinated women, likely due to a stronger masking effect by increased HPV cooccurrence in the former group. Consequently, the SPF 10 method led to a strong negative vaccine effectiveness (VE) of -84.6% against HPV-59, while the VE based on TS qPCR was 3.1%. For HPV-45, the relative increase in detection in nonvaccinated women compared vaccinated women was more similar, resulting in comparable VE estimates. In conclusion, this study shows that HPV-45 and -59 detection with the SPF 10 method is dependent on factors including VCn, HPV cooccurrence, and vaccination, thereby showing that knowledge of the limitations of the HPV detection method used is of great importance., (Copyright © 2020 van Eer et al.)

Background: Persistent high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is endorsed by the World Health Organization as an intermediate endpoint for evaluating HPV vaccine effectiveness/efficacy. There are different approaches to estimate the vaccine effectiveness/efficacy against persistent HPV infections., Methods: We performed a systematic literature search in Pubmed to identify statistical approaches that have been used to estimate the vaccine effectiveness/efficacy against persistent HPV infections. We applied these methods to data of a longitudinal observational study to assess their performance and compare the obtained vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates., Results: Our literature search identified four approaches: the conditional exact test for comparing two independent Poisson rates using a binomial distribution, Generalized Estimating Equations for Poisson regression, Prentice Williams and Peterson total time (PWP-TT) and Cox proportional hazards regression. These approaches differ regarding underlying assumptions and provide different effect measures. However, they provided similar effectiveness estimates against HPV16/18 and HPV31/33/45 persistent infections in a cohort of young women eligible for routine HPV vaccination (range VE 93.7-95.1% and 60.4-67.7%, respectively) and seemed robust to violations of underlying assumptions., Conclusions: As the rate of subsequent infections increased in our observational cohort, we recommend PWP-TT as the optimal approach to estimate the vaccine effectiveness against persistent HPV infections in young women. Confirmation of our findings should be undertaken by applying these methods after longer follow-up in our study, as well as in different populations.

Intense research activity in HPV modelling over this decade has prompted the development of additional guidelines to those for general modelling. A specific framework is required to address different policy questions and unique complexities of HPV modelling. HPV-FRAME is an initiative to develop a consensus statement and quality-based framework for epidemiologic and economic HPV models. Its development involved an established process. Reporting standards have been structured according to seven domains reflecting distinct policy questions in HPV and cancer prevention and categorised by relevance to a population or evaluation. Population-relevant domains are: 1) HPV vaccination in pre-adolescent and young adolescent individuals; 2) HPV vaccination in older individuals; 3) targeted vaccination in men who have sex with men; 4) considerations for individuals living with HIV and 5) considerations for low- and middle-income countries. Additional considerations applicable to specific evaluations are: 6) cervical screening or integrated cervical screening and HPV vaccination approaches and 7) alternative vaccine types and alternative dosing schedules. HPV-FRAME aims to promote the development of models in accordance with an explicit framework, to better enable target audiences to understand a model's strength and weaknesses in relation to a specific policy question and ultimately improve the model's contribution to informed decision-making., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Current HPV vaccines target a subset of the oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) types. If HPV types compete during infection, vaccination may trigger replacement by the non-targeted types. Existing approaches to assess the risk of type replacement have focused on detecting competitive interactions between pairs of vaccine and non-vaccine types. However, methods to translate any inferred pairwise interactions into predictors of replacement have been lacking. In this paper, we develop practical predictors of type replacement in a multi-type setting, readily estimable from pre-vaccination longitudinal or cross-sectional prevalence data. The predictors we propose for replacement by individual non-targeted types take the form of weighted cross-hazard ratios of acquisition versus clearance, or aggregate odds ratios of coinfection with the vaccine types. We elucidate how the hazard-based predictors incorporate potentially heterogeneous direct and indirect type interactions by appropriately weighting type-specific hazards and show when they are equivalent to the odds-based predictors. Additionally, pooling type-specific predictors proves to be useful for predicting increase in the overall non-vaccine-type prevalence. Using simulations, we demonstrate good performance of the predictors under different interaction structures. We discuss potential applications and limitations of the proposed methodology in predicting type replacement, as compared to existing approaches. This article is part of the theme issue 'Silent cancer agents: multi-disciplinary modelling of human DNA oncoviruses'.

Background: Men who have sex with men (MSM) are at high risk for anal cancer, primarily related to human papillomavirus genotype 16 (HPV16) infections. At 8.5 per 100,000 per year, the incidence rate of anal cancer among MSM is similar to that of cervical cancer among adult women in the Netherlands. However, MSM are not included in most HPV vaccination programs. We explored the potential effectiveness of prophylactic immunization in reducing anogenital HPV16 transmission among MSM in the Netherlands., Methods and Findings: We developed a range of mathematical models for penile-anal HPV16 transmission, varying in sexual contact structure and natural history of infection, to provide robust and plausible predictions about the effectiveness of targeted vaccination. Models were informed by an observational cohort study among MSM in Amsterdam, 2010-2013. Parameters on sexual behavior and HPV16 infections were obtained by fitting the models to data from 461 HIV-negative study participants, considered representative of the local MSM population. We assumed 85% efficacy of vaccination against future HPV16 infections as reported for HIV-negative MSM, and age-specific uptake rates similar to those for hepatitis B vaccination among MSM in the Netherlands. Targeted vaccination was contrasted with vaccination of 12-year-old boys at 40% uptake in base-case scenarios, and we also considered the effectiveness of a combined strategy. Offering vaccine to MSM without age restrictions resulted in a model-averaged 27.3% reduction (90% prediction interval [PI] 11.9%-37.5%) in prevalence of anal HPV16 infections, assuming similar uptake among MSM as achieved for hepatitis B vaccination. The predicted reduction improved to 46.1% (90% PI 21.8%-62.4%) if uptake rates among MSM were doubled. The reductions in HPV16 infection prevalence were mostly achieved within 30 years of a targeted immunization campaign, during which they exceeded those induced by vaccinating 40% of preadolescent boys, if started simultaneously. The reduction in anal HPV16 prevalence amounted to 74.8% (90% PI 59.8%-93.0%) under a combined vaccination strategy. HPV16 prevalence reductions mostly exceeded vaccine coverage projections among MSM, illustrating the efficiency of prophylactic immunization even when the HPV vaccine is given after sexual debut. Mode of protection was identified as the key limitation to potential effectiveness of targeted vaccination, as the projected reductions were strongly reduced if we assumed no protection against future infections in recipients with prevalent infection or infection-derived immunity at the time of immunization. Unverified limitations of our study include the sparsity of data to inform the models, the omission of oral sex in transmission to the penile or anal site, and the restriction that our modeling results apply primarily to HIV-negative MSM., Conclusions: Our findings suggest that targeted vaccination may generate considerable reductions in anogenital HPV16 infections among MSM, and has the potential to accelerate anal cancer prevention, especially when combined with sex-neutral vaccination in preadolescence., Competing Interests: I have read the journal's policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: JAB, SHM and MX declare that they have no conflict of interest. The institution of MFSvdL received study funding from Sanofi Pasteur MSD and Janssen Infectious Diseases and Vaccines; he was a co-investigator in a Merck-funded investigator-initiated study; he was an investigator on a Sanofi Pasteur MSD sponsored trial; he served on a vaccine advisory board of GSK; his institution received in-kind contribution for an HPV study from Stichting Pathologie Onderzoek en Ontwikkeling (SPOO).

Indications for human papillomavirus vaccination programs are expanding to boys. However, the rationale behind their inclusion is often not clear. Using a Bayesian synthesis framework and assuming equal vaccine coverage in both sexes, we assessed how the incremental number of cancer cases prevented and life-years gained from boys' vaccination are distributed between women, heterosexual men, and men who have sex with men (MSM). Below 60% coverage, at least 50% of the gains from boys' vaccination was attributable to cervical cancer prevention, whereas at 80% coverage, 50% of the gains was attributable to women, 15% to heterosexual men, and 35% to MSM. Above 90% coverage, 85-100% of the gains from boys' vaccination was attributable to anal and oropharyngeal cancer prevention, mainly in MSM. Sex-neutral vaccination can be advocated on grounds of bolstering herd protection to women and directly protecting men, particularly MSM, with the clinical significance of either argument determined by the coverage.

Background: Modelling studies have been widely used to inform human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination policy decisions; however, many models exist and it is not known whether they produce consistent predictions of population-level effectiveness and herd effects. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of model predictions of the long-term population-level effectiveness of vaccination against HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 infection in women and men, to examine the variability in predicted herd effects, incremental benefit of vaccinating boys, and potential for HPV-vaccine-type elimination., Methods: We searched MEDLINE and Embase for transmission-dynamic modelling studies published between Jan 1, 2009, and April 28, 2015, that predicted the population-level impact of vaccination on HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 infections in high-income countries. We contacted authors to determine whether they were willing to produce new predictions for standardised scenarios. Strategies investigated were girls-only vaccination and girls and boys vaccination at age 12 years. Base-case vaccine characteristics were 100% efficacy and lifetime protection. We did sensitivity analyses by varying vaccination coverage, vaccine efficacy, and duration of protection. For all scenarios we pooled model predictions of relative reductions in HPV prevalence (RR prev ) over time after vaccination and summarised results using the median and 10th and 90th percentiles (80% uncertainty intervals [UI])., Findings: 16 of 19 eligible models from ten high-income countries provided predictions. Under base-case assumptions, 40% vaccination coverage and girls-only vaccination, the RR prev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·53 (80% UI 0·46-0·68) and 0·36 (0·28-0·61), respectively, after 70 years. With 80% girls-only vaccination coverage, the RR prev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·93 (0·90-1·00) and 0·83 (0·75-1·00), respectively. Vaccinating boys in addition to girls increased the RR prev of HPV 16 among women and men by 0·18 (0·13-0·32) and 0·35 (0·27-0·39) for 40% coverage, and 0·07 (0·00-0·10) and 0·16 (0·01-0·25) for 80% coverage, respectively. The RR prev were greater for HPV 6, 11, and 18 than for HPV 16 for all scenarios investigated. Finally at 80% coverage, most models predicted that girls and boys vaccination would eliminate HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18, with a median RR prev of 1·00 for women and men for all four HPV types. Variability in pooled findings was low, but increased with lower vaccination coverage and shorter vaccine protection (from lifetime to 20 years)., Interpretation: Although HPV models differ in structure, data used for calibration, and settings, our population-level predictions were generally concordant and suggest that strong herd effects are expected from vaccinating girls only, even with coverage as low as 20%. Elimination of HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 is possible if 80% coverage in girls and boys is reached and if high vaccine efficacy is maintained over time., Funding: Canadian Institutes of Health Research., (Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Post-vaccine monitoring programs for human papillomavirus (HPV) have been introduced in many countries, but HPV serology is still an underutilized tool, partly owing to the weak antibody response to HPV infection. Changes in antibody levels among non-vaccinated individuals could be employed to monitor herd effects of immunization against HPV vaccine types 16 and 18, but inference requires an appropriate statistical model. The authors developed a four-component bivariate mixture model for jointly estimating vaccine-type seroprevalence from correlated antibody responses against HPV16 and -18 infections. This model takes account of the correlation between HPV16 and -18 antibody concentrations within subjects, caused e.g. by heterogeneity in exposure level and immune response. The model was fitted to HPV16 and -18 antibody concentrations as measured by a multiplex immunoassay in a large serological survey (3,875 females) carried out in the Netherlands in 2006/2007, before the introduction of mass immunization. Parameters were estimated by Bayesian analysis. We used the deviance information criterion for model selection; performance of the preferred model was assessed through simulation. Our analysis uncovered elevated antibody concentrations in doubly as compared to singly seropositive individuals, and a strong clustering of HPV16 and -18 seropositivity, particularly around the age of sexual debut. The bivariate model resulted in a more reliable classification of singly and doubly seropositive individuals than achieved by a combination of two univariate models, and suggested a higher pre-vaccine HPV16 seroprevalence than previously estimated. The bivariate mixture model provides valuable baseline estimates of vaccine-type seroprevalence and may prove useful in seroepidemiologic assessment of the herd effects of HPV vaccination.

Since 2014, several countries have implemented a 2-dose schedule for Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. Licensure of the 2-dose schedule was based on non-inferiority results from immunobridging studies, comparing the antibody levels of the 2-dose schedule in young girls to those of the 3-dose schedule in young adults. Since licensure, additional data on antibody levels and other aspects of the immune response and clinical effectiveness have become available. This review will discuss the current outcomes on immunogenicity and effectiveness together with an exploration on the population impact of 2-dose schedules from a cost-effectiveness perspective. The 2-dose schedule has important benefits, such as easier logistics, reduced expenditure, potentially higher acceptance and fewer side effects. Policymakers and registration authorities should consider whether these benefits outweigh the likely differences on individual- and population-level impact between the 2- and 3-dose schedules.

We assessed whether infection with chlamydia increases the incidence of carcinogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) infections and if HPV persistence is affected by chlamydia co-infection. For 1982 women (16-29 years-old) participating in two consecutive rounds of a chlamydia screening implementation trial, swabs were polymerase chain reaction tested to detect chlamydia and 14 carcinogenic HPV genotypes. HPV type-specific incidence and persistence rates were stratified for chlamydia positivity at follow-up. Associations were assessed by multilevel logistic regression analyses with correction for sexual risk factors. HPV type-specific incidence ranged from 1.4% to 8.9% and persistence from 22.7% to 59.4% after a median follow-up of 11 months (interquartile range: 11-12). Differences in 1-year HPV persistence rates between chlamydia -infected and noninfected women were less distinct than differences in HPV incidence rates (pooled adjusted odds ratios of 1.17 [95% CI: 0.69-1.96] and 1.84 [95% CI: 1.36-2.47], respectively). The effect of chlamydia co-infection on HPV-infection risk did not significantly differ by HPV genotype. In conclusion, infection with chlamydia increases the risk of infection by carcinogenic HPV types and may enhance persistence of some HPV types. Although these findings could reflect residual confounding through unobserved risk factors, our results do give reason to explore more fully the association between chlamydia and HPV type-specific acquisition and persistence., (© 2015 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The composition of the gut microbiota is associated with various disease states, most notably inflammatory bowel disease, obesity and malnutrition. This underlines that analysis of intestinal microbiota is potentially an interesting target for clinical diagnostics. Currently, the most commonly used sample types are feces and mucosal biopsy specimens. Because sampling method, storage and processing of samples impact microbiota analysis, each sample type has its own limitations. An ideal sample type for use in routine diagnostics should be easy to obtain in a standardized fashion without perturbation of the microbiota. Rectal swabs may satisfy these criteria, but little is known about microbiota analysis on these sample types. In this study we investigated the characteristics and applicability of rectal swabs for gut microbiota profiling in a clinical routine setting in patients presenting with various gastro-intestinal disorders. We found that rectal swabs appeared to be a convenient means of sampling the human gut microbiota. Swabs can be performed on demand, whenever a patient presents; swab-derived microbiota profiles are reproducible, whether they are gathered at home by patients or by medical professionals in an outpatient setting and may be ideally suited for clinical diagnostics and large-scale studies.

In view of possible type replacement upon introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, we aimed to explore patterns of type-specific clustering across populations with various background infection risks. A total of 3,874 women from 3 cross-sectional studies in the Netherlands (in 2007-2009) provided vaginal self-samples, which were tested for 25 HPV genotypes by a sensitive molecular assay (SPF10 line probe assay, DDL Diagnostic Laboratory, Voorburg, the Netherlands). The number of concurrent HPV infections per woman was studied by Poisson regression. Associations between HPV types were investigated by generalized estimating equation analyses. The prevalence of any HPV type was 14% in a population-based study, 54% in a chlamydia screening intervention study, and 73% in a study among attendees of sexually transmitted infection clinics. Overall, multiple HPV infections were detected in 26% of the women. The number of concurrent HPV infections conformed to an overdispersed Poisson distribution, even after correction for known risk factors. Types differed significantly in their tendencies to be involved in coinfections, but no evidence for particular type-type interactions was found. Moreover, the strongest associations were observed in the lowest-risk population and vice versa.We found no indications of pairwise interactions, but our findings do suggest that clustering differs among HPV types and varies across risk groups.

Little is known about the time span of progression from high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2/3) to invasive cervical cancer. Estimation of this duration from longitudinal studies is not permitted, as CIN2/3 should be treated when detected. Cross-sectional data on the age-specific incidence of detected CIN2/3 and cervical cancer cases are readily available in national registries, but these data are difficult to interpret because neither the moment of lesion development nor the onset of invasive cancer is observed. We developed a statistical model for estimating the duration of time between CIN2/3 and preclinical cancer using Dutch national registries for the years 2000-2005. Human papillomavirus (HPV) genotype data were used to separate CIN2/3 and cancer incidences to obtain estimates for HPV-16-positive and HPV-16-negative lesions. The median time from CIN2/3 to cancer was estimated to be 23.5 years (95% confidence interval: 20.8, 26.6), and 1.6% of the lesions progressed to cancer within 10 years. The median duration for HPV-16-positive lesions was similar, but 2.4% of the HPV-16-positive lesions progressed to cancer within 10 years, as compared with 0.6% for HPV-16-negative lesions. Estimated durations of time to cancer are essential for reassessment of the optimal screening interval in light of vaccination and novel screening tests.

Background: Men who have sex with men (MSM), in particular HIV-infected MSM, are at increased risk for diseases related to human papilloma virus (HPV). Our goal was to assess the effect of HIV status on the presence of type-specific antibodies against seven high-risk HPV types in HPV-unvaccinated MSM. Moreover, we compared determinants of HPV seropositivity between HIV-negative and HIV-infected MSM., Methods: MSM ≥18 years of age were recruited from the Amsterdam Cohort Studies, a sexually transmitted infection clinic, and an HIV-treatment center in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Participants completed a risk-factor questionnaire; serum samples were analyzed using a fluorescent bead-based multiplex assay., Results: MSM (n = 795) were recruited in 2010 to 2011; 758 MSM were included in this analysis. Median age was 40.1 years (interquartile range 34.8-47.5) and 308 MSM (40.6%) were HIV-infected. Seroprevalence of HPV-16 was 37.1% in HIV-negative and 62.7% in HIV-infected MSM (P < 0.001); seroprevalence of HPV-18 was 29.1% in HIV-negative MSM and 42.5% in HIV-infected MSM (P < 0.001). Similar patterns of seroprevalence were observed for HPV types 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58. In multivariable analyses, HPV seropositivity was associated with HIV infection [adjusted OR = 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.6-2.6]. In multivariable analyses stratified by HIV status, increasing age and number of lifetime male sex partners were significantly associated with HPV seropositivity in HIV-negative, but not HIV-infected MSM., Conclusions: Seroprevalence of high-risk HPV types is high among unvaccinated MSM., Impact: HIV infection is a strong and independent determinant for HPV seropositivity, which we hypothesize is because of increased persistence of HPV infection in HIV-infected MSM.

Background: To monitor the impact of human papillomavirus types 16 and 18 vaccine on HPV infection dynamics in the Netherlands, we started an ongoing study in sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinics in 2009. Here, we analyze baseline type-specific HPV DNA and HPV-specific antibody positivity rates., Methods: We enrolled 3569 men and women, 16-24 years of age, from 14 STI clinics, and estimated genital and anal HPV DNA and antibody positivity rates of 7 main carcinogenic HPV types. Generalized estimating equations regression analyses were applied to determine risk factors for, and associations between, type-specific HPV DNA and antibody positivity., Results: Genital HPV DNA positivity rates were higher in women than in men; anal HPV DNA was especially high in men who have sex with men (MSM). HPV antibody seropositivity rates were also highest in women and MSM. High-risk sexual behavior was predictive of both HPV DNA and antibody positivity. Despite a strong correlation in serological profiles for multiple HPV types, seropositivity was independently associated with homologous HPV DNA detection., Conclusions: HPV DNA and antibody positivity rates are higher in women and MSM than in heterosexual men, but their association is similar across gender. This suggests a site-specific natural course of infection.

Background: Vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16/18 is being implemented in many countries. There may be indirect benefit of HPV vaccination to nonvaccinated women, who may experience a reduced risk of infection with vaccine-preventable types (herd immunity). We attempt to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of HPV vaccination, while accounting for 14 oncogenic HPV types in a dynamic modeling framework., Methods: On the basis of vaccine uptake among preadolescent girls in the Netherlands, we calculated how heterosexual transmission of HPV-16/18 is expected to change as a result of vaccination, and used these predictions in an individual-based simulation model of cervical carcinogenesis that considers 14 high-risk HPV types. Models were parameterized to match prevaccine data on type-specific HPV infection and cervical disease., Results: At 50% vaccine coverage, the estimated lifetime infection risk in nonvaccinated women dropped from 0.46 (95% credible interval = 0.35-0.54) to 0.37 (0.26-0.46) for HPV-16, and from 0.40 (0.32-0.46) to 0.31 (0.22-0.36) [corrected] for HPV-18. For the whole population, we calculated an eventual 47% reduction in cervical cancer incidence, with 1 in 4 cases prevented among nonvaccinated women. The number of indirectly averted cancer cases was highest with vaccine coverage between 50% and 70%, approximating 70 cases per 100,000 women born from 2010 onward., Conclusions: HPV-16/18 vaccination of preadolescent girls will markedly lower infection rates among nonvaccinated women. Reduced transmission of vaccine-preventable HPV becomes a prominent aspect of cervical cancer control, especially in populations with moderate vaccine coverage.

Viral transmissibility and natural resistance to infection are key determinants in assessing the population impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, yet information on these parameters is scarce. Using data from 2 large-scale surveys on sexual behavior in the Netherlands (carried out in 2005-2006), the authors employed a Bayesian framework to fit a transmission model to the cross-sectional age-dependent prevalence of HPV DNA in cervical smears (data collected in 1992-2002), assuming that the prevaccine situation reflected an endemic equilibrium, and calculated type-specific estimates of transmissibility and infection-induced resistance. The posterior median transmission probability per heterosexual partnership covered a range of 0.43-0.94 among the 14 high-risk types of HPV. The transmission probability of HPV-16 was estimated at 0.80 (95% posterior interval: 0.60, 0.99) and that of HPV-18 at 0.93 (95% posterior interval: 0.72, 1). The model predicted that the decrease in HPV prevalence with age could not solely be explained by sexual activity and screening but also by resistance to reinfection, which is lost at a rate of 0.014-0.047 (1%-5%) per year. These results support the notion that HPV infection is highly transmissible, and they suggest a gradual loss of type-specific immunity over time. Because high transmission potential is associated with a low impact of herd immunity, extensive vaccination coverage will be required to substantially reduce cervical cancer incidence.

We evaluated the use of a trypticase soy broth (TSB) for improving detection of extended-spectrum-beta-lactamase-producing (ESBL(+)) bacteria. Preenrichment of throat and rectal swabs in TSB prior to inoculation on solid medium doubled the number of ESBL(+) bacteria detected in samples obtained from patients in our intensive care unit.

Background: Experimental animal data show that protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) infection with human monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) is feasible. For an effective immune prophylaxis in humans, broad coverage of different strains of SARS-CoV and control of potential neutralization escape variants will be required. Combinations of virus-neutralizing, noncompeting mAbs may have these properties., Methods and Findings: Human mAb CR3014 has been shown to completely prevent lung pathology and abolish pharyngeal shedding of SARS-CoV in infected ferrets. We generated in vitro SARS-CoV variants escaping neutralization by CR3014, which all had a single P462L mutation in the glycoprotein spike (S) of the escape virus. In vitro experiments confirmed that binding of CR3014 to a recombinant S fragment (amino acid residues 318-510) harboring this mutation was abolished. We therefore screened an antibody-phage library derived from blood of a convalescent SARS patient for antibodies complementary to CR3014. A novel mAb, CR3022, was identified that neutralized CR3014 escape viruses, did not compete with CR3014 for binding to recombinant S1 fragments, and bound to S1 fragments derived from the civet cat SARS-CoV-like strain SZ3. No escape variants could be generated with CR3022. The mixture of both mAbs showed neutralization of SARS-CoV in a synergistic fashion by recognizing different epitopes on the receptor-binding domain. Dose reduction indices of 4.5 and 20.5 were observed for CR3014 and CR3022, respectively, at 100% neutralization. Because enhancement of SARS-CoV infection by subneutralizing antibody concentrations is of concern, we show here that anti-SARS-CoV antibodies do not convert the abortive infection of primary human macrophages by SARS-CoV into a productive one., Conclusions: The combination of two noncompeting human mAbs CR3014 and CR3022 potentially controls immune escape and extends the breadth of protection. At the same time, synergy between CR3014 and CR3022 may allow for a lower total antibody dose to be administered for passive immune prophylaxis of SARS-CoV infection.

Scaling up access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) requires eligibility criteria that safeguard treatment efficiency in resource-poor settings. We determined whether supply of HAART on the basis of plasma viral load testing could result in a stronger reduction of AIDS incidence as compared with CD4 count-driven strategies. Expected AIDS incidence rates corresponding to distinct HAART eligibility criteria were calculated by relying on risk parameters obtained through the Amsterdam cohort studies on HIV infection and AIDS. We modeled 2 different treatment settings derived from sub-Saharan African surveys. In a hospital-based setting, the reduction in the 1-year AIDS incidence is the same for any HAART administration rate if patients are selected on a single CD4 cell count criterion or on (additional) criteria for plasma HIV-1 RNA. In a community-based setting, where patients are identified at less advanced stages of infection, the reduction in the 1-year AIDS incidence is higher at particular HAART administration rates if patients are selected on criteria for plasma HIV-1 RNA rather than CD4 cell count. Plasma viral load testing can ensure a more efficient allocation of antiretroviral therapy but only when applied to a strategy of active case finding in the community.

Cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL)-based HIV vaccine concepts shown to reduce viremia and postpone disease but not to prevent infection in monkeys are currently in human phase 1 trials. To evaluate the potential efficacy of vaccines that cannot prevent HIV-1 to infect and escape immunologic control, we designed a mathematic model that correlates the level of viremia to both infectiousness and disease progression. We speculate that vaccinees will have a virologic set point and disease progression rates comparable to untreated HIV-1-infected individuals with the best prognosis. Our model (illustrated with R0 = 3) shows that a sexually active population can ultimately be reduced to 26% of its initial size as a result of AIDS-related mortality in the absence of treatment or vaccination. Start of vaccination when HIV-1 prevalence is still low might postpone the peak incidence of infection and the dramatic decline in population size by up to 22 years. In conclusion, CTL-based vaccines that do not prevent HIV-1 infection but do postpone the time to onset of AIDS have considerable potential to curb the spread of HIV-1 and to postpone high AIDS-related mortality on a population level. The number of long-term survivors is substantially increased only when vaccination is initiated early in an AIDS epidemic, however.