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1. Enhancing Understanding of the Impact of Climate Change on Malaria in West Africa Using the Vector-Borne Disease Community Model of the International Center for Theoretical Physics (VECTRI) and the Bias-Corrected Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Data (CMIP6)

Author

Papa Fall, Ibrahima Diouf, Abdoulaye Deme, Semou Diouf, Doudou Sene, Benjamin Sultan, and Serge Janicot

Subjects
climate change, malaria, VECTRI, West Africa, bias-corrected CMIP6, Microbiology, QR1-502
Abstract

In sub-Saharan Africa, temperatures are generally conducive to malaria transmission, and rainfall provides mosquitoes with optimal breeding conditions. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of future climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa using community-based vector-borne disease models, TRIeste (VECTRI). This VECTRI model, based on bias-corrected data from the Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), was used to simulate malaria parameters, such as the entomological inoculation rate (EIR). Due to the lack of data on confirmed malaria cases throughout West Africa, we first validated the forced VECTRI model with CMIP6 data in Senegal. This comparative study between observed malaria data from the National Malaria Control Program in Senegal (Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme, PNLP, PNLP) and malaria simulation data with the VECTRI (EIR) model has shown the ability of the biological model to simulate malaria transmission in Senegal. We then used the VECTRI model to reproduce the historical characteristics of malaria in West Africa and quantify the projected changes with two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). The method adopted consists of first studying the climate in West Africa for a historical period (1950–2014), then evaluating the performance of VECTRI to simulate malaria over the same period (1950–2014), and finally studying the impact of projected climate change on malaria in a future period (2015–2100) according to the ssp245 ssp585 scenario. The results showed that low-latitude (southern) regions with abundant rainfall are the areas most affected by malaria transmission. Two transmission peaks are observed in June and October, with a period of high transmission extending from May to November. In contrast to regions with high latitudes in the north, semi-arid zones experience a relatively brief transmission period that occurs between August, September, and October, with the peak observed in September. Regarding projections based on the ssp585 scenario, the results indicate that, in general, malaria prevalence will gradually decrease in West Africa in the distant future. But the period of high transmission will tend to expand in the future. In addition, the shift of malaria prevalence from already affected areas to more suitable areas due to climate change is observed. Similar results were also observed with the ssp245 scenario regarding the projection of malaria prevalence. In contrast, the ssp245 scenario predicts an increase in malaria prevalence in the distant future, while the ssp585 scenario predicts a decrease. These findings are valuable for decision makers in developing public health initiatives in West Africa to mitigate the impact of this disease in the region in the context of climate change.

Published
2023
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2. Livestock exposure to future cumulated climate-related stressors in West Africa

Author

Audrey Brouillet and Benjamin Sultan

Subjects
Medicine, Science
Abstract

Abstract A large range of climate change impacts is expected during the twenty-first century in vulnerable regions such as West Africa, where local populations largely rely on livestock systems as their main food production and income source. As climate change threatens livestock systems in various ways, here we assess how regional livestock could be exposed to cumulated climate-related stressors in the future. Using the world’s largest multi-model climate impacts simulations database ISIMIP, we find that a large part of West Africa will experience at least 5–6 cumulated multiple climate stressors before the 2030s, including amplified severe heat stress conditions and flood risks. Consequently, about 30% of the current total regional livestock could be exposed to these cumulated stressors, with sheep and goat as the most affected species. This paper brings new quantifications that may help policy makers to prioritize decisions that could prepare local populations to face multiple climate-related impacts.

Published
2023
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4. Bias-Corrected CMIP5 Projections for Climate Change and Assessments of Impact on Malaria in Senegal under the VECTRI Model

Author

Papa Fall, Ibrahima Diouf, Abdoulaye Deme, Semou Diouf, Doudou Sene, Benjamin Sultan, Adjoua Moïse Famien, and Serge Janicot

Subjects
climate change, malaria, Senegal, VECTRI, GCM, CDF-t method, Medicine
Abstract

On the climate-health issue, studies have already attempted to understand the influence of climate change on the transmission of malaria. Extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, or heat waves can alter the course and distribution of malaria. This study aims to understand the impact of future climate change on malaria transmission using, for the first time in Senegal, the ICTP’s community-based vector-borne disease model, TRIeste (VECTRI). This biological model is a dynamic mathematical model for the study of malaria transmission that considers the impact of climate and population variability. A new approach for VECTRI input parameters was also used. A bias correction technique, the cumulative distribution function transform (CDF-t) method, was applied to climate simulations to remove systematic biases in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) that could alter impact predictions. Beforehand, we use reference data for validation such as CPC global unified gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation (CPC for Climate Prediction Center), ERA5-land reanalysis, Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), and African Rainfall Climatology 2.0 (ARC2). The results were analyzed for two CMIP5 scenarios for the different time periods: assessment: 1983–2005; near future: 2006–2028; medium term: 2030–2052; and far future: 2077–2099). The validation results show that the models reproduce the annual cycle well. Except for the IPSL-CM5B model, which gives a peak in August, all the other models (ACCESS1–3, CanESM2, CSIRO, CMCC-CM, CMCC-CMS, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, inmcm4, and IPSL-CM5B) agree with the validation data on a maximum peak in September with a period of strong transmission in August–October. With spatial variation, the CMIP5 model simulations show more of a difference in the number of malaria cases between the south and the north. Malaria transmission is much higher in the south than in the north. However, the results predicted by the models on the occurrence of malaria by 2100 show differences between the RCP8.5 scenario, considered a high emission scenario, and the RCP4.5 scenario, considered an intermediate mitigation scenario. The CanESM2, CMCC-CM, CMCC-CMS, inmcm4, and IPSL-CM5B models predict decreases with the RCP4.5 scenario. However, ACCESS1–3, CSIRO, NRCM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, and GFDL-ESM2M predict increases in malaria under all scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The projected decrease in malaria in the future with these models is much more visible in the RCP8.5 scenario. The results of this study are of paramount importance in the climate-health field. These results will assist in decision-making and will allow for the establishment of preventive surveillance systems for local climate-sensitive diseases, including malaria, in the targeted regions of Senegal.

Published
2023
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5. Pearl millet genomic vulnerability to climate change in West Africa highlights the need for regional collaboration

Author

Bénédicte Rhoné, Dimitri Defrance, Cécile Berthouly-Salazar, Cédric Mariac, Philippe Cubry, Marie Couderc, Anaïs Dequincey, Aichatou Assoumanne, Ndjido Ardo Kane, Benjamin Sultan, Adeline Barnaud, and Yves Vigouroux

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Replacement of local crops with alternative varieties adapted to future conditions may improve food security under climate change. Here the authors apply landscape genomics and ensemble climate modelling to pearl millet in West Africa, supporting the potential of transfrontier assisted seed exchange.

Published
2020
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6. Accelerate the Mobilization of African and International Scientific Expertise to Boost Interdisciplinary Research for the Success of the Sahelian Great Green Wall by 2030

Author

Laurent Bruckmann, Jean-Luc Chotte, Robin Duponnois, Maud Loireau, and Benjamin Sultan

Subjects
Great Green Wall, Sahel, land restoration, review, adaptation, Agriculture
Abstract

The Sahelian Great Green Wall (SGGW) is an influential project to combat desertification and promote sustainable land management on a large scale, involving 11 countries in the Sahel region of Africa. The UNCCD’s 2020 progress report showed a mixed picture concerning the meeting of the initial targets. At the One Planet Summit in 2021, announcements were made to consolidate the implementation of the SGGW, most notably with the creation of the Great Green Wall Accelerator. In this context, our paper sets out to review the scientific work conducted with regard to the SGGW. We have thus carried out a bibliometric analysis of the literature on SGGW. Although the initiative involves 11 countries and covers a large spectrum of scientific disciplines, our results show the predominance of ecological studies in the SGGW literature and a concentration of studies in certain geographies of interest, such as northern Senegal. Moreover, based on a secondary analysis of publications on land restoration and sustainable ecosystem management in Sahelian countries, we show that the literature relevant to SGGW topics is richer and fills in the information gaps we have identified at thematic and geographical levels. By showing that SGGW studies are overly focused on certain topics and geographical areas, our paper argues for a better interdisciplinary mobilization of researchers working on GGW-related topics. The scientific and operational success of the project depends on stronger networking between the different research teams and themes, both in Africa and internationally.

Published
2022
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7. Future productivity and phenology changes in European grasslands for different warming levels: implications for grassland management and carbon balance

Author

Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Jean-François Soussana, Katja Klumpp, and Benjamin Sultan

Subjects
European grassland, Grassland management, Phenology, Warming levels, Climate change, Environmental sciences, GE1-350
Abstract

Abstract Background Europe has warmed more than the global average (land and ocean) since pre-industrial times, and is also projected to continue to warm faster than the global average in the twenty-first century. According to the climate models ensemble projections for various climate scenarios, annual mean temperature of Europe for 2071–2100 is predicted to be 1–5.5 °C higher than that for 1971–2000. Climate change and elevated CO2 concentration are anticipated to affect grassland management and livestock production in Europe. However, there has been little work done to quantify the European-wide response of grassland to future climate change. Here we applied ORCHIDEE-GM v2.2, a grid-based model for managed grassland, over European grassland to estimate the impacts of future global change. Results Increases in grassland productivity are simulated in response to future global change, which are mainly attributed to the simulated fertilization effect of rising CO2. The results show significant phenology shifts, in particular an earlier winter-spring onset of grass growth over Europe. A longer growing season is projected over southern and southeastern Europe. In other regions, summer drought causes an earlier end to the growing season, overall reducing growing season length. Future global change allows an increase of management intensity with higher than current potential annual grass forage yield, grazing capacity and livestock density, and a shift in seasonal grazing capacity. We found a continual grassland soil carbon sink in Mediterranean, Alpine, North eastern, South eastern and Eastern regions under specific warming level (SWL) of 1.5 and 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate. However, this carbon sink is found to saturate, and gradually turn to a carbon source at warming level reaching 3.5 °C. Conclusions This study provides a European-wide assessment of the future changes in productivity and phenology of grassland, and their consequences for the management intensity and the carbon balance. The simulated productivity increase in response to future global change enables an intensification of grassland management over Europe. However, the simulated increase in the interannual variability of grassland productivity over some regions may reduce the farmers’ ability to take advantage of the increased long-term mean productivity in the face of more frequent, and more severe drops of productivity in the future.

Published
2017
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8. Hydrologie et production agricole dans le nord-ouest de l’Amazonie

Author

Josyane Ronchail, Tatiana Schor, Manon Sabot, Heitor Pinheiro, Naziano Filizola, Percy Gomez, Guillaume Drapeau, Véronique Michot, Jean-Loup Guyot, Jean-Michel Martinez, and Benjamin Sultan

Subjects
Amazon basin, Hydrological cycle, Flood recession, Rice, Rainfall, Peru, Geography (General), G1-922
Abstract

In the northwestern Amazon basin, the low water period favors flood recession farming on large emerging fertile surfaces on the river banks and in the inundations plains. The variability of hydrological extremes and of the structure of the flood recession cycle are analyzed in the fluviometric Tamshiyacu station on the Amazonas River, as they are considered as important for the crop quality. Rice cropping which is a profitable activity in this region is neither related to the duration of low-waters, nor to the speed of the rising water. But this work show that since 1985, low water levels have decreased while the duration of the low water period has increased. Moreover, there has been an acceleration of the speed of the water rising.

Published
2016
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9. Water Constraints and Flood-Recession Agriculture in the Senegal River Valley

Author

Mamadou Sall, Jean-Christophe Poussin, Aymar Yaovi Bossa, Ramatoulaye Ndiaye, Madiama Cissé, Didier Martin, Jean-Claude Bader, Benjamin Sultan, and Andrew Ogilvie

Subjects
flood, flood recession agriculture, Senegal River, Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999
Abstract

Flood recession farming practiced in flood-prone areas and on the banks of rivers and lakes in arid or semi-arid environments essentially depends on the soil water stock after the flood has receded. During these last few decades, this coveted agriculture is increasingly challenged by severe water constraints, due to increased hydrological hazards and development projects aimed at controlling floods. These challenges are difficult to anticipate, and are the subject of a great deal of uncertainty regarding the sustainability of development projects in the concerned areas. In this study, recent hydraulic data of the Senegal River were analyzed to understand the constraints related to the river management in flood-prone areas. Satellite imagery analysis techniques were used to estimate flooded areas and establish relationships with the river regime. Agricultural practices implemented by farmers were also analyzed to evaluate the resilience of this cropping system to the risk of water stress. The results confirmed many constraints of different importance related to the objectives assigned to the management of dams under multiple water use context. It clearly came out that the water resource management rules relegate flood-recession agriculture to the lowest priorities. In addition, there are safety issues related to unexpected effects of flooding on the water structures and in the nearby inhabited localities of flood-prone areas. Knowing some characteristics of the flooding and of the river’s levels and their relationships can be useful within the framework of an organized climate service that would help farmers and communities to better anticipate constraints.

Published
2020
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10. Ethnographic context and spatial coherence of climate indicators for farming communities – A multi-regional comparative assessment

Author

Vincent Moron, Joseph Boyard-Micheau, Pierre Camberlin, Valeria Hernandez, Christian Leclerc, Caroline Mwongera, Nathalie Philippon, Florencia Fossa Riglos, and Benjamin Sultan

Subjects
Seasonal prediction, Tropical rainfall, Regional scale, Crop systems, Vulnerability, Ethnoclimatology, Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999
Abstract

Accurate seasonal predictions of rainfall may reduce climatic risks that farmers are usually faced with across the tropical and subtropical zones. However, although regional-scale seasonal amounts have regularly been forecasted since 1997/98, the practical use of these seasonal predictions is still limited by myriad factors. This paper synthesizes the main results of a multi-disciplinary ethnographic and climatic project (PICREVAT). Its main objective was to seek the climatic information – beyond the seasonal amounts – critical for crops, both as an actual constraint to crop yields and as identified by the current and past practices and perceptions of farmers. A second goal was to confront the relevance and significance of this climatic information with its spatial coherence, which gives an upper bound of its potential predictability. The ethnographic and climatic analyses were carried out on three very different fields: North Cameroon (mixed food crops associated with a cash crop – cotton – integrated into a national program); Eastern slopes of Mt Kenya (mixed food crops, with a recent development of maize at the expense of sorghum and pearl millet); and Central Argentina (mixed crops and livestock recently converting to monoculture of transgenic soybean, referred to as soybeanization). The ethnographic surveys, as well as yield–climate functions, emphasized the role played by various intra-seasonal characteristics of the rainy seasons beyond the seasonal rainfall amounts, in both actual yields and people’s representations and/or crop management strategies. For instance, the onset of the rainy season in East Africa and North Cameroon, the season duration in the driest district of the eastern slopes of Mount Kenya, or rains at the core (August) and at the end of the rainy season in North Cameroon have been highlighted. The dynamics of farming systems (i.e. soybeanization in Central Argentina, increasing popularity of maize in East Africa, recent decline of cotton in North Cameroon) were also emphasized as active drivers; these slow changes could increase climatic vulnerability (i.e. soybean is far more sensitive to rainfall variations than wheat, maize is less drought-resistant than sorghum or millet), at least for the least flexible actors (such as the non-capitalized farmers in Central Argentina). The cross between ethnographic surveys and climatic analyses enabled us to identify climate variables that are both useful to farmers and potentially predictable. These variables do not appear to be common across the surveyed fields. The best example is the rainy season onset date whose variations, depending on regions, crop species and farming practices may either have a major/minor role in crop performance and/or crop management, or may have a high/low potential predictability.

Published
2015
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11. Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-first Century: climate change and impacts scenarios, and potential for adaptation

Author

Benjamin Sultan and Marco Gaetani

Subjects
Agriculture, Climate Change, adaptation, impacts, West African monsoon, Plant culture, SB1-1110
Abstract

West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the 21st century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options difficult. Further efforts are needed to improve modelling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, the response of the crops to such changes and in the potential for adaptation.

Published
2016
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12. Errors and uncertainties introduced by a regional climate model in climate impact assessments: example of crop yield simulations in West Africa

Author

Johanna Ramarohetra, Benjamin Pohl, and Benjamin Sultan

Subjects
WRF, crop model, West Africa, regional climate model, EPIC, SARRA-H, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract

The challenge of estimating the potential impacts of climate change has led to an increasing use of dynamical downscaling to produce fine spatial-scale climate projections for impact assessments. In this work, we analyze if and to what extent the bias in the simulated crop yield can be reduced by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to downscale ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis) rainfall and radiation data. Then, we evaluate the uncertainties resulting from both the choice of the physical parameterizations of the WRF model and its internal variability. Impact assessments were performed at two sites in Sub-Saharan Africa and by using two crop models to simulate Niger pearl millet and Benin maize yields. We find that the use of the WRF model to downscale ERA-Interim climate data generally reduces the bias in the simulated crop yield, yet this reduction in bias strongly depends on the choices in the model setup. Among the physical parameterizations considered, we show that the choice of the land surface model (LSM) is of primary importance. When there is no coupling with a LSM, or when the LSM is too simplistic, the simulated precipitation and then the simulated yield are null, or respectively very low; therefore, coupling with a LSM is necessary. The convective scheme is the second most influential scheme for yield simulation, followed by the shortwave radiation scheme. The uncertainties related to the internal variability of the WRF model are also significant and reach up to 30% of the simulated yields. These results suggest that regional models need to be used more carefully in order to improve the reliability of impact assessments.

Published
2015
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13. Climate drives the meningitis epidemics onset in west Africa.

Author

Benjamin Sultan, Karima Labadi, Jean-François Guégan, and Serge Janicot

Subjects
Medicine
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Every year West African countries within the Sahelo-Sudanian band are afflicted with major meningococcal meningitis (MCM) disease outbreaks, which affect up to 200,000 people, mainly young children, in one of the world's poorest regions. The timing of the epidemic year, which starts in February and ends in late May, and the spatial distribution of disease cases throughout the "Meningitis Belt" strongly indicate a close linkage between the life cycle of the causative agent of MCM and climate variability. However, mechanisms responsible for the observed patterns are still not clearly identified. METHODS AND FINDINGS: By comparing the information on cases and deaths of MCM from World Health Organization weekly reports with atmospheric datasets, we quantified the relationship between the seasonal occurrence of MCM in Mali, a West African country, and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Regional atmospheric indexes based on surface wind speed show a clear link between population dynamics of the disease and climate: the onset of epidemics and the winter maximum defined by the atmospheric index share the same mean week (sixth week of the year; standard deviation, 2 wk) and are highly correlated. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first that provides a clear, quantitative demonstration of the connections that exist between MCM epidemics and regional climate variability in Africa. Moreover, this statistically robust explanation of the MCM dynamics enables the development of an Early Warning Index for meningitis epidemic onset in West Africa. The development of such an index will undoubtedly help nationwide and international public health institutions and policy makers to better control MCM disease within the so-called westward-eastward pan-African Meningitis Belt.

Published
2005
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14. Global warming threatens agricultural productivity in Africa and South Asia

Author

Benjamin Sultan

Subjects
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Christensen et al 2007) has, with greater confidence than previous reports, warned the international community that the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions will result in global climate change. One of the most direct and threatening impacts it may have on human societies is the potential consequences on global crop production. Indeed agriculture is considered as the most weather-dependent of all human activities (Hansen 2002) since climate is a primary determinant for agricultural productivity. The potential impact of climate change on crop productivity is an additional strain on the global food system which is already facing the difficult challenge of increasing food production to feed a projected 9 billion people by 2050 with changing consumption patterns and growing scarcity of water and land (Beddington 2010). In some regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia that are already food insecure and where most of the population increase and economic development will take place, climate change could be the additional stress that pushes systems over the edge. A striking example, if needed, is the work from Collomb (1999) which estimates that by 2050 food needs will more than quintuple in Africa and more than double in Asia. Better knowledge of climate change impacts on crop productivity in those vulnerable regions is crucial to inform policies and to support adaptation strategies that may counteract the adverse effects. Although there is a growing literature on the impact of climate change on crop productivity in tropical regions, it is difficult to provide a consistent assessment of future yield changes because of large uncertainties in regional climate change projections, in the response of crops to environmental change (rainfall, temperature, CO _2 concentration), in the coupling between climate models and crop productivity functions, and in the adaptation of agricultural systems to progressive climate change (Roudier et al 2011, Challinor et al 2007). These uncertainties result in a large spread of crop yield projections indicating a low confidence in future yield projections. A recent study by Knox et al (2012) is among the first to provide robust evidence of how climate change will impact productivity of major crops in Africa and South Asia. Using a meta-analysis, which is widely used in epidemiology and medicine and consists in comparing and combining results from different independent published studies, Knox et al (2012) show a consistent yield loss by the 2050s of major crops (wheat, maize, sorghum and millet) in both regions. This systematic review and meta-analysis of data in 52 original publications from an initial screen of 1144 studies nicely extend previous works by Müller et al (2011) and Roudier et al (2011), confirming the threat of negative climate change impacts in Africa but also in South Asia. Knox et al (2012) estimate that mean yield change for all crops is -8% by the 2050s with strong variations among crops and regions. For instance evidence of yield reduction up to -40% are detected for some regions of Africa while no mean yield change is detected for rice in India. Variations in crop yield projections decrease when considering a large number of climate models confirming the relevance of the expanded use of multi-model ensembles of projections of future climate change adopted in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Conversely, variations in crop yield projections increase with the crop model complexity especially when using process-based crop models over statistical models. Such differences in crop yield variations may be attributed either to the structural differences between crop model approaches or to the spatial scale differences; biophysical crop models operating at finer spatial scales and thus reproducing the higher variability of impacts at these scales. Such robust evidence of future yield change in Africa and South Asia can be surprising in regards to the diverging projections in a warmer climate of summer monsoon rainfall, the primary driver for rainfed crop productivity in the region, especially in West Africa where some studies make projections of wetter conditions and some predict more frequent droughts (Druyan 2011). This is because of the adverse role of higher temperatures in shortening the crop cycle duration and increasing evapotranspiration demand and thus reducing crop yields, irrespective of rainfall changes (Berg et al 2012, Roudier et al 2011, Schlenker and Lobell 2010). Potential wetter conditions or elevated CO _2 concentrations hardly counteract the adverse effect of higher temperatures. Although such systematic reviews and meta-analyses conducted by Knox et al (2012), Müller et al (2011) or Roudier et al (2011) can provide important insights about sign, magnitude and uncertainty of climate change impacts, direct comparison among studies suffers from inevitable limitations. In particular the diversity of the studies selected for the meta-analysis, encompassing a range of different countries, scales, crops and methods (climate models and scenarios, crop models, downscaling technique), makes it difficult to aggregate crop yield projections to provide a consistent and precise impact assessment. A rigorous multi-ensembles approach, with varying climate models, emissions scenarios, crop models, and downscaling techniques, as recommended by Challinor et al (2007), would enable a move towards a more complete sampling of uncertainty in crop yield projections. In that sense, coordinated modeling experiments such as the ones conducted throughout the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; http://www.agmip.org/ ) are likely to improve substantially the characterization of the threat of crop yield losses and food insecurity due to climate change. In spite of the threat of crop yield losses in a warmer climate, it is important to keep in mind, as discussed by Berg et al (2012), that developing countries in the tropics have the potential to more than offset such adverse impacts by implementing more intensive agricultural practices and adapting agriculture to climate and environmental change. Indeed Africa and in a lesser extend South Asia are among the only regions of the world where there is an untapped potential for raising agricultural productivity since poor soil fertility and low input levels, combined with extensive agricultural practices, contribute to a large gap between actual and potential yields (Licker et al 2010). References Beddington J 2010 Food security: contributions from science to a new and greener revolution Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 365 61–71 Berg A, de Noblet-Ducoudré N, Sultan B, Lengaigne N and Guimberteau M 2012 Projections of climate change impacts on potential crop productivity over tropical regions Agric. For. Meteorol. at press (doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.12.003 ) Challinor A, Wheeler T, Garforth C, Craufurd P and Kassam A 2007 Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change Clim. Change 83 381–99 Christensen J H et al 2007 Regional climate projections Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon, D Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis, K B Averyt, M Tignor and H L Miller (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Collomb P 1999 A narrow road to food security from now to 2050 FAO Economica (Paris: FAO) Druyan L M 2011 Studies of 21st-century precipitation trends over West Africa Int. J. Climatol. 31 1415–572 Hansen J W 2002 Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges Agric. Syst. 74 309–30 Knox J, Hess T, Daccache A and Wheeler T 2012 Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia Environ. Res. Lett. 7 034032 Licker R, Johnston M, Foley J A, Barford C, Kucharik C J, Monfreda C and Ramankutty N 2010 Mind the gap: how do climate and agricultural management explain the ‘yield gap’ of croplands around the world? Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 19 769–82 Müller C, Cramer W, Hare W L and Lotze-Campen H 2011 Climate change risks for African agriculture Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108 4313–5 Roudier P, Sultan S, Quirion P and Berg A 2011 The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields: what does the recent literature say? Glob. Environ. Change 21 1073–83 Schlenker W and Lobell D 2010 Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture Environ. Res. Lett. 5 014010

Published
2012
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15. Rendre compte de l'insaisissable

Author

Youssoupha Tall, Jeanne Riaux, and Benjamin Sultan

Subjects
agriculture, knowledge, Senegal, divination, Saltigui, predictions, Anthropology, GN1-890
Abstract

Agriculture in Senegal is predominantly rain-fed and depends heavily on meteorological services. Any information on future rainfall is therefore important for farmers to anticipate the delayed arrivals of rains or particularly dry years. In Sereer countryside (Fatick region), the Saltigui (diviners) take part in this work of anticipating the rainy season through divination practices that enable them to predict the course of the coming rainy season. Through their annual ceremonies named Xooy, the Saltigui share the knowledge they have obtained both from the spirits and from their own knowledge of the land and its signs. Through an analysis of the Saltigui’s discourse and practices, this article adresses the assembly work on which the Saltigui’s ‘meteorological prediction’ is based. We demonstrate the Saltigui’s role as intermediary between the spirit world, the living world and the nature. Through their Xooy, the Saltigui convey and share a local knowledge, linked to a specific territory and stemming from a set of beliefs and practices rooted in history. This particular case allows us to consider ‘local ecological knowledge’ as a form of situated totality. On one hand, rain is perceived positioned as a facet of collective life, and not as a field of knowledge isolated from the rest of the village’s concerns. On the other hand, in addition to announcing the onset of the rainy season, the Saltigui also purify the physical and symbolic space prior to the rainy season, and then make proposals to ward off any harmful predictions. The predictive act must therefore be understood as part of a larger whole in which it takes on its full meaning. These observations prompt us to take a cautious approach to the contemporary project of integrating ‘local knowledge’ into modern forms of scientific forecasting.

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17. Bias-Corrected CMIP5 Projections for Climate Change and Assessments of Impact on Malaria in Senegal under the VECTRI Model

Author

Janicot, Papa Fall, Ibrahima Diouf, Abdoulaye Deme, Semou Diouf, Doudou Sene, Benjamin Sultan, Adjoua Moïse Famien, and Serge

Subjects
climate change, malaria, Senegal, VECTRI, GCM, CDF-t method, BIAS corrected CMIP5
Abstract

On the climate-health issue, studies have already attempted to understand the influence of climate change on the transmission of malaria. Extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, or heat waves can alter the course and distribution of malaria. This study aims to understand the impact of future climate change on malaria transmission using, for the first time in Senegal, the ICTP’s community-based vector-borne disease model, TRIeste (VECTRI). This biological model is a dynamic mathematical model for the study of malaria transmission that considers the impact of climate and population variability. A new approach for VECTRI input parameters was also used. A bias correction technique, the cumulative distribution function transform (CDF-t) method, was applied to climate simulations to remove systematic biases in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) that could alter impact predictions. Beforehand, we use reference data for validation such as CPC global unified gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation (CPC for Climate Prediction Center), ERA5-land reanalysis, Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), and African Rainfall Climatology 2.0 (ARC2). The results were analyzed for two CMIP5 scenarios for the different time periods: assessment: 1983–2005; near future: 2006–2028; medium term: 2030–2052; and far future: 2077–2099). The validation results show that the models reproduce the annual cycle well. Except for the IPSL-CM5B model, which gives a peak in August, all the other models (ACCESS1–3, CanESM2, CSIRO, CMCC-CM, CMCC-CMS, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, inmcm4, and IPSL-CM5B) agree with the validation data on a maximum peak in September with a period of strong transmission in August–October. With spatial variation, the CMIP5 model simulations show more of a difference in the number of malaria cases between the south and the north. Malaria transmission is much higher in the south than in the north. However, the results predicted by the models on the occurrence of malaria by 2100 show differences between the RCP8.5 scenario, considered a high emission scenario, and the RCP4.5 scenario, considered an intermediate mitigation scenario. The CanESM2, CMCC-CM, CMCC-CMS, inmcm4, and IPSL-CM5B models predict decreases with the RCP4.5 scenario. However, ACCESS1–3, CSIRO, NRCM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, and GFDL-ESM2M predict increases in malaria under all scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The projected decrease in malaria in the future with these models is much more visible in the RCP8.5 scenario. The results of this study are of paramount importance in the climate-health field. These results will assist in decision-making and will allow for the establishment of preventive surveillance systems for local climate-sensitive diseases, including malaria, in the targeted regions of Senegal.

Published
2023
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18. Climate change in Africa: costs of mitigating heat stress

Author

Olivier Dessens, Benjamin Sultan, Ben Parkes, Jennifer Cronin, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), University College of London [London] (UCL), UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement, Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM), European Project: 603864,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage,HELIX(2013), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), and Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Population, Climate change, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 02 engineering and technology, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Stress (mechanics), Humidex, Precipitation, education, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Global and Planetary Change, education.field_of_study, business.industry, 020801 environmental engineering, Apparent temperature, 13. Climate action, Air conditioning, Environmental science, business, Intensity (heat transfer)
Abstract

We applied two metrics, apparent temperature and humidex, to calculate heat stress in both present and future climates. We use an ensemble of CORDEX-Africa simulations to estimate heat stress during a baseline period and at two specific warming levels, 2 and 4 degrees C above pre-industrial. The increase in temperatures and changes to the precipitation distribution under climate change are projected to increase the intensity of heat stress events in Sahelian Africa and introduce new heat stress events in Northern and Central Africa. As the intensity of heat stress increases, it is expected that the use of energy-intensive cooling will increase. The energy system, therefore, will need to be able to supply more energy to power fans or air conditioning units. The cooling demand to turn a heat stress event into a non-heat stress event is computed. This value is then weighted by the population to find the total cooling required to prevent heat stress across the continent. Country-level results indicate that the greatest increases in cooling demand will occur in countries with densely populated regions, most notably Nigeria. Supplying this additional cooling demand will present the greatest challenge to less developed countries like Somalia. We find the least-cost future energy system that meets the projected increase in demand and derive the increase in energy system costs with the TIAM-UCL model. The total increase in energy costs to prevent heat stress is found to be $51bn by 2035 and $487bn by 2076.

Published
2019
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19. Strong regional influence of climatic forcing datasets on global crop model ensembles

Author

Jonas Jägermeyr, Allard de Wit, Alex C. Ruane, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Wenfeng Liu, Joshua Elliott, Toshichika Iizumi, Gen Sakurai, Nikolay Khabarov, Peter Lawrence, Benjamin Sultan, Stefan Olin, Christoph Müller, Xuhui Wang, Hong Yang, A. Arneth, Juraj Balkovic, Delphine Deryng, Erwin Schmid, Christian Folberth, Robert C. Izaurralde, Meridell Phillips, Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), NASA GODDARD INSTITUTE FOR SPACE STUDIES NEW YORK USA, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), University of Chicago, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Institute of Geography, University of Edinburgh, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, National Institute of Agro-Environmental Sciences (NIAES), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI), Forcing (mathematics), 01 natural sciences, Crop productivity, Crop, 03 medical and health sciences, Crop production, Climatic Forcing Datasets, Aardobservatie en omgevingsinformatica, Precipitation, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0303 health sciences, Global and Planetary Change, business.industry, Agroclimate, Extreme events, Forestry, Climate Impacts, PE&RC, Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Climatology, Environmental science, business, Agronomy and Crop Science
Abstract

We present results from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase I, which aligned 14 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and 11 climatic forcing datasets (CFDs) in order to understand how the selection of climate data affects simulated historical crop productivity of maize, wheat, rice and soybean. Results show that CFDs demonstrate mean biases and differences in the probability of extreme events, with larger uncertainty around extreme precipitation and in regions where observational data for climate and crop systems are scarce. Countries where simulations correlate highly with reported FAO national production anomalies tend to have high correlations across most CFDs, whose influence we isolate using multi-GGCM ensembles for each CFD. Correlations compare favorably with the climate signal detected in other studies, although production in many countries is not primarily climate-limited (particularly for rice). Bias-adjusted CFDs most often were among the highest model-observation correlations, although all CFDs produced the highest correlation in at least one top-producing country. Analysis of larger multi-CFD-multi-GGCM ensembles (up to 91 members) shows benefits over the use of smaller subset of models in some regions and farming systems, although bigger is not always better. Our analysis suggests that global assessments should prioritize ensembles based on multiple crop models over multiple CFDs as long as a top-performing CFD is utilized for the focus region.

Published
2021
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20. Robust assessment of the time of emergence of precipitation change in West Africa

Author

Serge Janicot, Marco Gaetani, Mathieu Vrac, Benjamin Sultan, Adjoua Moise Famien, TROPO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori (IUSS), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny (UFHB), UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement, Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM), ANR-11-IDEX-0004-17-EURE-0006, ANR-10-LABX-0018,L-IPSL,LabEx Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL): Understand climate and anticipate future changes(2010), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)

Subjects
Wet season, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0208 environmental biotechnology, lcsh:Medicine, Climate change, 02 engineering and technology, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, 01 natural sciences, Article, Projection and prediction, West africa, Precipitation, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, lcsh:Science, Climate and Earth system modelling, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Multidisciplinary, lcsh:R, 020801 environmental engineering, Trustworthiness, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Threatened species, Environmental science, lcsh:Q, Climate model, Climate state
Abstract

The time of emergence (TOE) of climate change is defined as the time when a new climate state emerges from a prior one. TOE assessment is particularly relevant in West Africa, a region highly threatened by climate change and urgently needing trustworthy climate predictions. In this paper, the TOE of precipitation change in West Africa is assessed for the first time, by analyzing 6 precipitation metrics (cumulated precipitation, number of wet and very wet days, onset and length of the rainy season) computed from the output of 29 state-of-the-art climate models. In West Sahel, climate conditions characterized by reduced occurrence of wet days are likely to emerge before 2036, leading to the possible emergence of a dryer climate in 2028–2052. In East Sahel, a wetter precipitation regime characterized by increased occurrence of very wet days is likely to emerge before 2054. Results do not provide a clear indication about a possible climate shift in the onset and length of the rainy season. Although uncertainty in climate model future projections still limits the robust determination of TOE locally, this study provides reliable time constraints to the expected climate shift in West Africa at the sub-regional scale, supporting adaptation measures to the future change in the precipitation regime.

Published
2020
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21. Impact of climate change in West Africa on cereal production per capita in 2050

Author

Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, Mathieu Castet, Adjoua Famien, Camille Noûs, and Christian Baron

Subjects
bepress|Life Sciences|Agriculture, bepress|Life Sciences, EarthArXiv|Life Sciences, EarthArXiv|Life Sciences|Agriculture
Abstract

Food security is a crucial issue in the Sahel and could be endangered by climate change and demographic pressure during the 21st century. Indeed, people in rural areas mainly practice rainfed agriculture for subsistence during the monsoon rainfall season. Higher temperatures and changes in rainfall induced by global warming are threatening food production systems in this region while the population of this region is expected to increase approximately threefold until 2050 according to several demographic scenarios. However climate change is very uncertain, with monsoon rainfall that might either increase or decrease, according to different climate models and greenhouse gases emissions scenarios. Our study quantifies the impact of climate change on food security by combining climate, crops yield and demographic evolution. Using 16 global climate models, we investigate the evolution of solar radiation, temperature and precipitation under two future climatic scenarios. We simulate yield for the main crops in West-Africa: maize, sorghum and millet. Finally, we estimate in terms of production in the future and is scaled by population changes in order to assess the number of available cereal production per capita in five countries in West Africa. We found that, although uncertain, the evolution of the African monsoon is different between the countries with a rainfall increase in the Eastern Sahel for Niger and Nigeria and a decrease in the Western Sahel for Senegal under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. With regard to the abundance of food for the inhabitants, all the scenarios in each country show that in 2050, local agricultural production will be below than 50 kilograms per capita, which corresponds to the basic threshold for feeding all the inhabitants of West Africa. The prospects for improving or adapting current agronomic techniques and/or expanding the cultivated areas do not allow to reach this threshold even by taking into account the [CO2] effect, which has a positive effect in drought situations. This would place additional pressures on resources in the region, with potentially strong impacts on crops import and regional migration.

Published
2020

22. Current needs for climate services in West Africa: Results from two stakeholder surveys

Author

Benjamin Sultan, Inga Menke, Kaylin Lee, Ibrahima Sy, Philippe Roudier, Quentin Lejeune, Gina Maskell, and M. Noblet

Subjects
Climate impacts, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0207 environmental engineering, Stakeholder engagement, 02 engineering and technology, Joint analysis, lcsh:QC851-999, 01 natural sciences, Training (civil), West africa, West Africa, Climate change, lcsh:Social sciences (General), 020701 environmental engineering, Survey, Dissemination, Environmental planning, Climate services, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Global and Planetary Change, Stakeholder, Senegal, West african, lcsh:Meteorology. Climatology, lcsh:H1-99, Business
Abstract

Climate services have been criticised in the past for their tendency to only disseminate results from climate research, rather than to seek to understand and tailor to the needs of their target audiences. Two surveys have been conducted within two projects, ISIpedia and CLIMAP, to assess users’ needs for climate and climate impacts information of all countries (with a foremost focus on West Africa) and for Senegal. The joint analysis of the results showed that climate and climate-impact information is very relevant for West African respondents’ activities but a number of barriers prevent existing climate services from fully fulfilling the role they could play in this respect. Consistently across both surveys, the respondents highlighted the irrelevance or the incompleteness of the information that current climate services provide, which is mostly related to the lack of high-resolution information or high uncertainties, as the biggest barriers. Both surveys showed that the lack of training to understand the provided information is also an important barrier, which calls for the organisation of capacity-building activities to ensure the uptake of the information by their target audiences. Overall, the survey responses demonstrated the importance of stakeholder engagement to ensure the usefulness of climate services in West Africa. In addition, appropriate integration of the existing climate services within the national contexts as well as their dissemination within the ecosystem of information portals and products appear to be essential to ensure their effectiveness.

Published
2020

23. Evaluation of 23 gridded precipitation datasets across West Africa

Author

Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Frédéric Satgé, Nathalie Rouché, Marie-Paule Bonnet, Fabrice Pierron, Frédérique Seyler, Institut de Modélisation et d'Analyses en géo-environnement et santé - Espace Développement (IMAGES-Espace DEV), UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement, Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Agrosystèmes Biodiversifiés (UMR ABSys), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Fonctionnement et conduite des systèmes de culture tropicaux et méditerranéens (UMR SYSTEM), Hydrosciences Montpellier (HSM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), and Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0207 environmental engineering, 02 engineering and technology, Time step, 01 natural sciences, West africa, Dry season, West Africa, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Precipitation, 020701 environmental engineering, Reliability (statistics), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Water Science and Technology, precipitation datasets, reliability, Vegetal Biology, Local scale, Reliability, Term (time), 13. Climate action, Climatology, Environmental science, Satellite, Precipitation datasets, Biologie végétale
Abstract

International audience; Highlights:• Unprecedented report on 23 precipitation datasets reliability across West Africa.• Large discrepancies are observed between the precipitation datasets reliability.• The datasets reliability differ in space and according to the considered time step.• MSWEP is the most accurate dataset to represent the daily precipitation dynamic.• CHIRPS is the most accurate dataset to represent the monthly precipitation dynamic.Abstract: This study aims reporting on 23 gridded precipitation datasets (P-datasets) reliability across West Africa through direct comparisons with rain gauges measurement at the daily and monthly time scales over a 4 years period (2000-2003). All P-datasets reliability vary in space and time. The most efficient P-dataset in term of Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) changes at the local scale and the P-dataset performance is sensitive to seasonal effects. Satellite-based P-datasets performed better during the wet than the dry season whereas the opposite is observed for reanalysis P-datasets. The best overall performance was obtained for MSWEP v.2.2 and CHIRPS v.2 for daily and monthly time-step, respectively. Part of the differences in P-dataset performance at daily and monthly time step comes from the time step used to proceed the gauges adjustment (i.e day or month) and from a mismatch between gauge and satellite reporting times. In comparison to the others P-datasets, TMPA-Adj v.7 reliability is stable and reach the second highest KGE value at both daily and monthly time step. Reanalysis P-datasets (WFDEI, MERRA-2, JRA-55, ERA-Interim) present among the lowest statistical scores at the daily time step, which drastically increased at the monthly time step for WFDEI and MERRA-2. The non-adjusted P-datasets were the less efficient, but, their near-real time availability should be helpful for risk forecast studies (i.e. GSMaP-RT v.6). The results of this study give important elements to select the most adapted P-dataset for specific application across West Africa.

Published
2020
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26. Impacts of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet melt on future Köppen climate zone changes simulated by an atmospheric and oceanic general circulation model

Author

Nadine Dessay, Dimitri Defrance, Thibault Catry, Benjamin Sultan, Amélie Rajaud, UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA), Agrosystèmes Biodiversifiés (UMR ABSys), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Geography, Planning and Development, Biome, 0211 other engineering and technologies, Climate change, Greenland ice sheet, Antarctic ice sheet, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, IPSL-CM5A-LR, Precipitation, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Southern Hemisphere, Ice sheet melting, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Northern Hemisphere, 021107 urban & regional planning, Forestry, Köppen classification, 15. Life on land, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, 13. Climate action, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management, Climatology, Climate modeling, Koppen classification, Ice sheet
Abstract

Climate change studies in recent decades have been based on Global Climate Models (GCMs), and the changes in the distribution of climatic regions over time extracted from these models can be represented using the Koppen climatic classification system, which predicts the global distribution of biomes based on monthly precipitation and average temperatures. In this study, the Koppen classification is used to evaluate the impacts of the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets on GCM simulation results, on regional and global scales. To assess the impacts of accelerated ice sheet melting, an approach is utilized which is based on numerical simulations from the IPSL-CM5A-LR GCM; here, freshwater is introduced near the ice sheets and is superimposed on the RCP8.5 scenario. The changes in the distribution of the Koppen climatic regions under various scenarios (a historical run from observations, RCP8.5, and various examples of polar ice sheet melting) and comparisons between them reveal that major changes will occur on the global scale during the period 2041–2060. The analysis of group shifts within the Koppen classification system reveals that when freshwater from Greenland or Antarctica is introduced into the ocean, the inter-tropical belt undergoes greater change than it does under the RCP8.5 scenario. A focus on sub-group shifts within the Koppen classification system shows that changes in precipitation have major impacts on the climate in the Southern Hemisphere. Further, the changes are more drastic if the freshwater originates from Greenland than from Antarctica or from both locations. However, changes in temperature strongly impact the climate in the Northern Hemisphere and are significantly affected by the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. This study highlights the importance of considering ice sheet melting in the modeling of future global climate.

Published
2020
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27. Water constraints and flood-recession agriculture in the Senegal river valley

Author

Aymar Yaovi Bossa, Andrew Ogilvie, Didier Martin, Ramatoulaye Ndiaye, Madiama Cissé, Jean-Claude Bader, Benjamin Sultan, Mamadou Sall, Jean-Christophe Poussin, Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles [Dakar] (ISRA), Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages (UMR G-EAU), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-AgroParisTech-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Université d’Abomey-Calavi = University of Abomey Calavi (UAC), UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-AgroParisTech-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Université d’Abomey-Calavi (UAC), and Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, media_common.quotation_subject, 0207 environmental engineering, 02 engineering and technology, lcsh:QC851-999, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 01 natural sciences, Recession, Cropping system, 020701 environmental engineering, River regime, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, media_common, 2. Zero hunger, flood recession agriculture, Flood myth, business.industry, Environmental resource management, 15. Life on land, flood, Arid, 6. Clean water, Geography, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Sustainability, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Senegal River, lcsh:Meteorology. Climatology, business, Water use
Abstract

Flood recession farming practiced in flood-prone areas and on the banks of rivers and lakes in arid or semi-arid environments essentially depends on the soil water stock after the flood has receded. During these last few decades, this coveted agriculture is increasingly challenged by severe water constraints, due to increased hydrological hazards and development projects aimed at controlling floods. These challenges are difficult to anticipate, and are the subject of a great deal of uncertainty regarding the sustainability of development projects in the concerned areas. In this study, recent hydraulic data of the Senegal River were analyzed to understand the constraints related to the river management in flood-prone areas. Satellite imagery analysis techniques were used to estimate flooded areas and establish relationships with the river regime. Agricultural practices implemented by farmers were also analyzed to evaluate the resilience of this cropping system to the risk of water stress. The results confirmed many constraints of different importance related to the objectives assigned to the management of dams under multiple water use context. It clearly came out that the water resource management rules relegate flood-recession agriculture to the lowest priorities. In addition, there are safety issues related to unexpected effects of flooding on the water structures and in the nearby inhabited localities of flood-prone areas. Knowing some characteristics of the flooding and of the river&rsquo, s levels and their relationships can be useful within the framework of an organized climate service that would help farmers and communities to better anticipate constraints.

Published
2020
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29. Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5 K warmer than the pre-industrial era

Author

Xuhui Wang, Philippe Ciais, Ben Parkes, Benjamin Sultan, Dimitri Defrance, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), European Project: 603864,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage,HELIX(2013), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, lcsh:Dynamic and structural geology, Yield (finance), 0208 environmental biotechnology, Population, [SDV.SA.AGRO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Agronomy, Climate change, Earth and Planetary Sciences(all), 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, Rainwater harvesting, Crop, lcsh:QE500-639.5, education, lcsh:Science, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, education.field_of_study, Food security, biology, Agroforestry, Crop yield, lcsh:QE1-996.5, food and beverages, Sorghum, biology.organism_classification, 020801 environmental engineering, lcsh:Geology, Agronomy, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, lcsh:Q
Abstract

The ability of a region to feed itself in the upcoming decades is an important issue. The West African population is expected to increase significantly in the next 30 years. The responses of crops to short-term climate change is critical to the population and the decision makers tasked with food security. This leads to three questions: how will crop yields change in the near future? What influence will climate change have on crop failures? Which adaptation methods should be employed to ameliorate undesirable changes? An ensemble of near-term climate projections are used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the recent historic period (1986–2005) and a near-term future when global temperatures are 1.5 K above pre-industrial levels to assess the change in yield, yield variability and crop failure rate. Four crop models were used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the historic and future climates. Across the majority of West Africa the maize, millet and sorghum yields are shown to fall. In the regions where yields increase, the variability also increases. This increase in variability increases the likelihood of crop failures, which are defined as yield negative anomalies beyond 1 standard deviation during the historic period. The increasing variability increases the frequency of crop failures across West Africa. The return time of crop failures falls from 8.8, 9.7 and 10.1 years to 5.2, 6.3 and 5.8 years for maize, millet and sorghum respectively. The adoption of heat-resistant cultivars and the use of captured rainwater have been investigated using one crop model as an idealized sensitivity test. The generalized doption of a cultivar resistant to high-temperature stress during flowering is shown to be more beneficial than using rainwater harvesting.

Published
2018
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30. The Impact of Melting Ice Sheets on Future Global Climate

Author

Dimitri Defrance, Thibault Catry, Amélie Rajaud, Nadine Dessay, Benjamin Sultan, UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)

Subjects
bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Physics, bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Earth Sciences|Other Earth Sciences, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Physics, bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Earth Sciences, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology|Climate, 15. Life on land, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Earth Sciences, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics, bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology|Climate, 13. Climate action, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Earth Sciences|Other Earth Sciences, bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Earth Sciences|Hydrology, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Earth Sciences|Hydrology
Abstract

That is a preprint of an article suubmitted at Applied Greography (20tf of March 19). Climate change studies in the last decades have been based on Global Climate Models (GCM), and the distribution of climatic regions over time extracted from these models can be represented using the Köppen climatic classification. The Köppen approach predicts the distribution of biomes worldwide on the basis of monthly precipitation and average temperature. This study aims to use the Köppen classification to evaluate the impact of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melting on GCM simulation results at the regional and global scale. To assess the impact of accelerated ice-sheet melting, our approach is based on numerical simulations from the IPSL-CM5A-LR GCM with the introduction of freshwater near the ice sheets superimposed on the RCP8.5 scenario, leading to a global warming of +5°C. Static mapping of distribution changes in Köppen climatic regions under various scenarios (historical run from observations, RCP 8.5, and various cases of polar sheets melting) and comparisons between them reveal that major changes occur at the global scale for the period 2041-2060. A first level of analysis revealed that, when the input of freshwater originates from Greenland or Antarctica, the inter-tropical belt undergoes greater change than under the RCP8.5 scenario. A second level of analysis showed that changes in precipitation have major impacts on the southern hemisphere, with more drastic changes if the freshwater came from the Greenland ice sheet than if it came from Antarctica or from the combination of both. Changes in temperature, however, strongly impact the northern hemisphere, and are significantly affected by the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. This study highlights the importance of considering ice sheets melting in the modelling of future global climate.

Published
2019

31. Climate Change and Cereal Production Evolution Trend in the Sahel: Case Study in Mali from 1951 to 2010

Author

Niaba Teme, Jean-François Bélières, Mamoutou Kouressy, Lieven Claessens, Michaël Dingkuhn, Benjamin Sultan, Michel Vaksmann, Institut d'Economie Rurale - Mali (IER), institut Economie, Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales (UMR AGAP), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Département Systèmes Biologiques (Cirad-BIOS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement (UMR ART-Dev), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Département Environnements et Sociétés (Cirad-ES), and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)

Subjects
Wet season, 050101 languages & linguistics, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, Pluie, Rizière, maïs, millet, Climate change, Sorgho, 01 natural sciences, Agricultural statistics, Climatic data, Normal periods, F01 - Culture des plantes, Life Science, Production (economics), 0501 psychology and cognitive sciences, Agricultural extension, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, Changement climatique, biology, 05 social sciences, Sorghum, biology.organism_classification, PE&RC, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Bodemgeografie en Landschap, Statistiques d'eau, Geography, Agronomy, 13. Climate action, Soil Geography and Landscape
Abstract

Mali is a Sahelian country with a large climatic contrast from North to South. The current climatic and production evolutionary study is focused on the six major agro-climatic cereal production zones ranging from Kayes (400 mm) to Sikasso (>1000 mm) of rainfalls. Climatic data are rainfall records, daily maximum and minimum temperatures from 60 years of the six major synoptic weather observation stations. Data were analyzed on comparing average decades of the two normal periods of 30 years (1951-1980) and (1981-2010). Annual agronomic production data for millet, sorghum, maize and rice are derived from Mali's agricultural statistics base from 1984 to 2013. Main climatic results analyses indicate that climate change resulted in a decrease of 100 mm isohyets between the 2 periods of 30 years. The structure of the rainy season was little changed between these two periods since the average start of the season was delayed by 6 days and the average end date of the season became earlier by 4 days. Maximum temperatures increased significantly from + 0.44°C to + 1.53°C and minimum temperatures significantly increased from + 1.05°C to + 1.93°C in varying way depending on the sites. Statistics of major agronomic food crop production in Mali from 1984 to 2013 indicate an average increase of 985 to 4492 thousand tones, or 22% increase per year. There is a positive upward in saw tooth trend in Malian production from 1984 to 2013. This positive trend is the result of a combination of agricultural extension, agronomic research application and the management of small farmer holder in the Sahel. This evolution needs better study for drawing necessary right conclusions.

Published
2019
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32. Science et développement durable : 75 ans de recherche au Sud

Author

Marie-Lise Sabrié, Thomas Mourier, Corinne Lavagne, Thivent, V., Isabelle Guérin, François Roubaud, Christophe Guilmoto, Mireille Razafindrakoto, Marc Pilon, Isabelle LEGLISE, Pierre-Yves Le Meur, Fatoumata Ouattara, Christian Seignobos, Jean-Pierre Chauveau, Eric Léonard, Dominique Guillaud, Alain Froment, Nelly Robin, Michel Agier, Sophie Bava, Annabel Desgrées Du Loû, Flore Gubert, Eric Delaporte, Gonzague Jourdain, Alexandre Dumont, Serge Trèche, Jacques Berger, Pierre Traissac, Valérie Delaunay, Vincent Robert, Frédéric Darriet, Cheikh Sokhna, Michel Cot, Martine Peeters, Eric Leroy, Alice Desclaux, Jean-Marc Hougard, Didier Paugy, Michel Boussinesq, Philippe Solano, Dorothée Missé, Louis-Clément Gouagna, Jean-Loup Lemesre, Anne-Laure Bañuls, Menkès, Christophe E., Morgan Mangeas, Benjamin Sultan, Thomas Condom, Marielle Gosset, Serge Janicot, Jean Nocquet, Jean-Luc Le Pennec, Sébastien Hardy, Philippe Charvis, Yann Hello, Emmanuel Bonnet, Emilie Strady, David Point, Bernard Ollivier, Biegala, Isabelle C., Christian Feller, Christian Valentin, Eric Giraud, Eric Blanchart, Jean-Pierre Montoroi, Philippe Cecchi, Jean Albergel, Jean-Michel Vouillamoz, Vincent Simonneaux, Gilles Boulet, Thierry Ruf, Geneviève Michon, Jean-Baptiste Boutrais, Laure Emperaire, Robin Duponnois, Philippe Boulanger, Eugénie Hébrard, Valerie Verdier, Boris Szurek, Bruno Le Ru, Paul-André Calatayud, Olivier Dangles, Frédérique Aberlenc, Sevastianos Roussos, Gauthier Dobigny, Marc Legendre, Daniel Gaertner, Pierre Chavance, Pascal Bach, Arnaud Bertrand, Jérôme Vialard, Jacques Merle, Bruno Voituriez, Bernard Bourlès, Pierrick Penven, Thierry Lebel, Gil Mahe, Luc Descroix, Pierre Chevallier, Stéphane Calmant, Bruno Turcq, Adrien Favreau, Jean-Louis Rajot, Raphaël Pelissier, Philippe Cury, Riccardo Rodolfo-Metalpa, Hervé De Tricornot, Frédéric Simard, Jean-François Etard, Bernard Taverne, Florence Fournet, Alexis Drogoul, Marc Souris, Monique Simier, Marie Bonnin, Alain Ghesquière, Serge Hamon, Yves Vigouroux, Sophie Gonzalez, Jean-François Molino, Geneviève Bourdy, Christian Moretti, Pierre Ottino Garanger, Francisco Valdez, Benoît Antheaume, Nicolas Gratiot, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine (LEDa), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Paris Dauphine-PSL, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre population et développement (CEPED - UMR_D 196), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Paris (UP), Structure et Dynamique des Langues (SeDyL), Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales (Inalco)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR135-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Gouvernance, Risque, Environnement, Développement (GRED), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Laboratoire Population-Environnement-Développement (LPED), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU), Régulations foncières, politiques publiques et logiques d'acteurs (REFO), Patrimoines locaux, Environnement et Globalisation (PALOC), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Centre d'études africaines (CEAf), École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Recherches Translationnelles sur le VIH et les maladies infectieuses endémiques er émergentes (TransVIHMI), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Universtié Yaoundé 1 [Cameroun]-Université Cheikh Anta Diop [Dakar, Sénégal] (UCAD)-Université Montpellier 1 (UM1)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Épidémiologie clinique, santé mère-enfant et VIH en Asie du Sud-Est (IRD_PHPT), Harvard University [Cambridge]-Chiang Mai university (Thaïlande), Mère et enfant face aux infections tropicales (MERIT - UMR_D 216), Nutrition et Alimentation des Populations aux Suds (NutriPass), Université Montpellier 1 (UM1)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Diversity, ecology, evolution & Adaptation of arthropod vectors (MIVEGEC-DEEVA), Evolution des Systèmes Vectoriels (ESV), Maladies infectieuses et vecteurs : écologie, génétique, évolution et contrôle (MIVEGEC), Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Maladies infectieuses et vecteurs : écologie, génétique, évolution et contrôle (MIVEGEC), Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Vector Control Group (MIVEGEC-VCG), Vecteurs - Infections tropicales et méditerranéennes (VITROME), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de Recherche Biomédicale des Armées (IRBA), Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Biologie des Organismes et Ecosystèmes Aquatiques (BOREA), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université des Antilles (UA), Interactions hôtes-vecteurs-parasites-environnement dans les maladies tropicales négligées dues aux trypanosomatides (UMR INTERTRYP), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Université de Bordeaux (UB), Du gène à l'écosystème (MIVEGEC-GeneSys), Pathogènes, Environnement, Santé Humaine (EPATH), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement, Université des Antilles (UA)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Institut de Modélisation et d'Analyses en géo-environnement et santé - Espace Développement (IMAGES-Espace DEV), Université des Antilles (UA)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Géosciences Environnement Toulouse (GET), Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Météo France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Météo France-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), UMR 215 Prodig (PRODIG), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Nord])-AgroParisTech, Géoazur (GEOAZUR 7329), Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) (COMUE UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) (COMUE UCA), Identités et Différenciation de l'Environnement des Espaces et des Sociétés (IDEES), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université Le Havre Normandie (ULH), Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU), Unité mixte internationale Résiliences (UMI RESILIENCES), Centre ivoirien de recherches économiques et sociales (CIRES)-Université de Cocody, Institut méditerranéen d'océanologie (MIO), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Toulon (UTLN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Ecologie fonctionnelle et biogéochimie des sols et des agro-écosystèmes (UMR Eco&Sols), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Institut d'écologie et des sciences de l'environnement de Paris (IEES (UMR_7618 / UMR_D_242 / UMR_A_1392 / UM_113) ), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Paris (UP), Laboratoire des symbioses tropicales et méditerranéennes (UMR LSTM), Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages (UMR G-EAU), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-AgroParisTech-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Laboratoire d'étude des Interactions Sol - Agrosystème - Hydrosystème (UMR LISAH), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut de gestion des entreprises -USJ (IGE), Université Saint-Joseph de Beyrouth (USJ), Centre d'études spatiales de la biosphère (CESBIO), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Météo France, Dynamiques environnementales entre forêt, agriculture et biodiversité : des pratiques locales sur la nature aux politiques de conservation, UMR - Interactions Plantes Microorganismes Environnement (UMR IPME), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Laboratoire Génome et développement des plantes (LGDP), Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), UMR Evolution, Génomes, Comportement, Ecologie, Évolution, génomes, comportement et écologie (EGCE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-IRD-Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11), INRA - Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées (Unité MIAJ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Diversité, adaptation, développement des plantes (UMR DIADE), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Avignon Université (AU), Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations (UMR CBGP), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Caractérisation et valorisation de la diversité ichtyologique pour une aquaculture raisonnée (CAVIAR), UMR 212 EME 'écosystèmes marins exploités' (EME), Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Institut Pluridisciplinaire Hubert Curien (IPHC), Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Météo France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Météo France-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Laboratoire de physique des océans (LPO), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Hydrosciences Montpellier (HSM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Variabilité à long terme du climat de l'océan (VALCO), Institut Français de Pondichéry (IFP), Ministère de l'Europe et des Affaires étrangères (MEAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations (UMR AMAP), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Biocomplexité des écosystèmes coralliens de l'Indo-Pacifique (CoReUS2), Unité de modélisation mathématique et informatique des systèmes complexes [Bondy] (UMMISCO), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Universtié Yaoundé 1 [Cameroun]-Université Cadi Ayyad [Marrakech] (UCA)-Université Gaston Bergé (Saint-Louis, Sénégal)-Université Cheikh Anta Diop [Dakar, Sénégal] (UCAD)-Institut de la francophonie pour l'informatique-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Nord]), Conditions et territoires d'émergence des maladies : dynamiques spatio-temporelles de l'émergence, évolution, diffusion/réduction des maladies, résistance et prémunition des hôtes (CTEM), Unité des Virus Emergents (UVE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Laboratoire des Sciences de l'Environnement Marin (LEMAR) (LEMAR), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer (IUEM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Université Montpellier 1 (UM1)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Cheikh Anta Diop [Dakar, Sénégal] (UCAD)-Universtié Yaoundé 1 [Cameroun]-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Maladies infectieuses et vecteurs : écologie, génétique, évolution et contrôle (MIVEGEC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM), COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) (COMUE UCA)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) (COMUE UCA), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Université Le Havre Normandie (ULH), Normandie Université (NU)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Toulon (UTLN), Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-IRD-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer (IUEM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Paris Dauphine-PSL-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre d'Etudes des Mondes Africains (CEMAf), Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Université de Provence - Aix-Marseille 1-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Systèmes RF (XLIM-SRF), XLIM (XLIM), Université de Limoges (UNILIM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Limoges (UNILIM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Patrimoines Locaux et Gouvernance (PALOC), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Eco-Anthropologie et Ethnobiologie (EAE), Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Paris Descartes - Paris 5 (UPD5), Recherches Translationnelles sur le VIH et les maladies infectieuses (TransVIHMI), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Montpellier 1 (UM1)-Université Cheikh Anta Diop [Dakar, Sénégal] (UCAD)-Universtié Yaoundé 1 [Cameroun]-Université de Montpellier (UM), Prévention des malnutritions er des pathologies associées, Physiologie de la reproduction et des comportements [Nouzilly] (PRC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Tours-Institut Français du Cheval et de l'Equitation [Saumur]-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD [Sénégal]), Centre IRD de Montpellier (IRD), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Environnement, Géo-ingénierie et Développement (EGID), Carcinose Angiogenèse et Recherche Translationnelle, Angiogenese et recherche translationnelle (CART U965), Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Environnement urbain (URBI), Géoazur (GEOAZUR 6526), Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) (UNS), Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre Asiatique de Recherche sur l'Eau CARE-HCMUT, Vietnam, Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Laboratoire Mixte International – Evolution et Domestication de l'Ichtyofaune Amazonienne (LMI - EDIA), Intitut de Recherche en Amazonie Péruvienne, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Toulon (UTLN)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Caractérisation et modélisation des échanges dans des lagons soumis aux influences terrigènes et anthropiques (CAMELIA), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [Nouvelle-Calédonie])-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [Guyanne]), Lyonbiopôle, Centre de recherche rétrospective de Marseille (CRRM), Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille 3, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-AgroParisTech-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [ Madagascar])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Laboratoire d'étude des transferts en hydrologie et environnement (LTHE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble (INPG)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Université Montpellier 1 (UM1)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM), IRSH, Université Abdou Moumouni [Niamey], Cultures et Sociétés en Europe (CSE), Université Marc Bloch - Strasbourg II-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), UMI 2019, Université Pierre et Marie Curie (Paris 6), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales (Inalco)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR135, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) (UNS), Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [ Madagascar])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Ministère de l'Europe et des Affaires étrangères (MEAE)

Subjects
MONDE, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences
Abstract

International audience; Comment, depuis plusieurs décennies, la recherche scientifique contribue-t-elle au développement des pays du Sud ? À travers plus de 100 succès emblématiques de la recherche en partenariat, cet ouvrage nous plonge au coeur des grandes questions de développement : oeuvrer pour des sociétés plus justes, lutter contre les maladies, faire face aux risques naturels, mettre en place une agriculture durable garantissant la sécurité alimentaire, préserver la biodiversité, partager les savoirs... Il montre ainsi comment la recherche contribue à l'amélioration des conditions de vie et à la préservation de l'environnement dans les pays en développement, en soulignant le rôle de la science pour répondre aux défis du monde actuel et à venir. Composé de textes courts, didactiques et richement illustrés, il s'adresse à tous les publics.

Published
2019

33. Direct and indirect effects of CO2 increase on crop yield in West Africa

Author

Marco Gaetani, Ben Parkes, Benjamin Sultan, UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA), School of Mechanical Aerospace and Civil Engineering [Manchester] (MACE), University of Manchester [Manchester], TROPO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), European Union Seventh Framework Programme, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, ANR-10-LABX-0018,L-IPSL,LabEx Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL): Understand climate and anticipate future changes(2010), European Project: 603864,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage,HELIX(2013), Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM), and Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Effects of global warming on oceans, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, Monsoon, Mali, 01 natural sciences, Crop, carbon dioxide (CO2), West Africa, 14. Life underwater, Cameroon, Niger, agriculture, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Food security, business.industry, crop model, Crop yield, fungi, 15. Life on land, Radiative forcing, Senegal, climate change, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, Environmental science, business
Abstract

International audience; Climate change directly threatens food security in West Africa through a negative impact on productivity of the main staple food crops. However, providing consistent future crop yield projections in the region remain challenging because of uncertainty in the response of the regional climate to the CO2 increase and in the response of the cultivated crop to this altered climate with more CO2 in the atmosphere. Here, we analyse a set of idealised climate simulations to investigate the effect of CO2 concentration increase on the West African monsoon and potential impacts on crop yields of maize. On the one hand, simulations with prescribed SST and quadrupled CO2 concentration are analysed to study the atmospheric response to direct radiative forcing induced by increasing CO2 concentration, not mediated by ocean heat capacity. On the other hand, simulations with prescribed SST augmented by 4 K are analysed to study the atmospheric response to the global ocean warming expected as a consequence of the increasing CO2 radiative forcing. We show that if CO2 concentration increase has a positive impact on crop yield due to the fertilisation effect, it also has a direct effect on the monsoon which acts to increase (decrease) rainfall in the Eastern (Western) part of the Sahel and increase (decrease) crop yields consequently. Finally, we show that SST warming acts to reduce rainfall and increase local temperatures leading to strong reduction of crop yield. The reduction of crop yield is more important in the Eastern part of the Sahel where the warming is more intense than in the Western part of the Sahel. Overall, positive effects are weaker and more uncertain than the negative effects in the analysed simulations.

Published
2019
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34. A 60-year reconstructed high-resolution local meteorological data set in Central Sahel (1950-2009): evaluation, analysis and application to land surface modelling

Author

Jérôme Demarty, Laurent Kergoat, Bernard Cappelaere, Crystèle Leauthaud, I. Bouzou Moussa, Françoise Guichard, Manuela Grippa, M. Mouhaimouni, Cécile Velluet, I. Mainassara, Théo Vischel, and Benjamin Sultan

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, Multivariate statistics, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Humidity, Cru, 02 engineering and technology, Land cover, 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, Wind speed, 020801 environmental engineering, Data set, 13. Climate action, Downwelling, ERA-40, Climatology, Environmental science, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

The Sahel has experienced strong climate variability in the past decades. Understanding its implications for natural and cultivated ecosystems is pivotal in a context of high population growth and mainly agriculture-based livelihoods. However, efforts to model processes at the land–atmosphere interface are hindered, particularly when the multi-decadal timescale is targeted, as climatic data are scarce, largely incomplete and often unreliable. This study presents the generation of a long-term, high-temporal resolution, multivariate local climatic data set for Niamey, Central Sahel. The continuous series spans the period 1950–2009 at a 30-min timescale and includes ground station-based meteorological variables (precipitation, air temperature, relative and specific humidity, air pressure, wind speed, downwelling long- and short-wave radiation) as well as process-modelled surface fluxes (upwelling long- and short-wave radiation, latent, sensible and soil heat fluxes and surface temperature). A combination of complementary techniques (linear/spline regressions, a multivariate analogue method, artificial neural networks and recursive gap filling) was used to reconstruct missing meteorological data. The complete surface energy budget was then obtained for two dominant land cover types, fallow bush and millet, by applying the meteorological forcing data set to a finely field-calibrated land surface model. Uncertainty in reconstructed data was expressed by means of a stochastic ensemble of plausible historical time series. Climatological statistics were computed at sub-daily to decadal timescales and compared with local, regional and global data sets such as CRU and ERA-Interim. The reconstructed precipitation statistics, ∼1 °C increase in mean annual temperature from 1950 to 2009, and mean diurnal and annual cycles for all variables were in good agreement with previous studies. The new data set, denoted NAD (Niamey Airport-derived set) and publicly available, can be used to investigate the water and energy cycles in Central Sahel, while the methodology can be applied to reconstruct series at other stations. (Resume d'auteur)

Published
2016
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35. Adaptation strategies to climate change using cotton ( Gossypium hirsutum L.) ideotypes in rainfed tropical cropping systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. A modeling approach

Author

Oumarou Palai, E. Gérardeaux, Renaud Loison, Benjamin Sultan, Agroécologie et Intensification Durables des cultures annuelles (UPR AIDA), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux (Cirad-PERSYST), Institut de Recherche Agricole pour le Développement [Yaoundé] (IRAD), UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement, Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Systèmes de Cultures Annuelles (UPR 102 SCA), Institut de recherche agricole pour le développement (IRAD), Institut de recherche agricole pour le développement, and Université des Antilles (UA)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)

Subjects
Wet season, CSM-CROPGRO-cotton, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Specific leaf area, P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, Conservation agriculture, F08 - Systèmes et modes de culture, Soil Science, Climate change, Biology, Coton, 01 natural sciences, date de plantation, Planting date, Variété, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, Changement climatique, Gossypium, business.industry, U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques, Modélisation des cultures, Ideotype, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, Agronomy, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Crop modeling, Climate model, Cultivar, business, Agronomy and Crop Science, Cropping
Abstract

Developing cultivars with adaptive traits to improve sustainability in the face of climate change is an important option for climate smart agriculture. The CROPGRO-cotton model was calibrated and evaluated at two locations in Cameroon over a period of two years using two planting dates and four contrasted cultivars. The model was used to assess yield gains by modifying plant traits such as specific leaf area, photosynthetic capacity and crop phenology. The ideotype was tested in conventional and conservation agriculture systems and under baseline and future climate conditions. The results revealed that, compared to existing cultivars, the ideotype requires longer to reach maturity and has thicker leaves with good photosynthetic capacity. In 2050 in North Cameroon, climate change will shorten time to maturity and cause a shift in the rainy season but neither change will have an effect on yields. Simulations with an ensemble of climate models revealed that models that assume higher rainfall predicted lower yields, suggesting that N leaching is a more important constraint than drought in North Cameroon. Our results will help cotton breeders select promising new traits to introduce in their cultivars for adaptation to climate changes in Cameroon and to similar sub-Saharan soil, cropping systems and climatic conditions.

Published
2018
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36. The impact of future climate change and potential adaptation methods on Maize yields in West Africa

Author

Philippe Ciais, Benjamin Sultan, Ben Parkes, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), University of Manchester [Manchester], UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), European Project: 603864,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage,HELIX(2013), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)

Subjects
2. Zero hunger, 0106 biological sciences, Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, education.field_of_study, Food security, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Resistance (ecology), Crop yield, Yield (finance), [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Population, [SDV.SA.AGRO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Agronomy, Climate change, 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, Crop, Agronomy, 13. Climate action, Effects of global warming, Environmental science, [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Bioclimatology, education, 010606 plant biology & botany, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

International audience; Maize (Zea mays) is one of the staple crops of West Africa and is therefore of high importance with regard to future food security. The ability of West Africa to produce enough food is critical as the population is expected to increase well into the twenty-first century. In this study, a process-based crop model is used to project maize yields in Africa for global temperatures 2 K and 4 K above the preindustrial control. This study investigates how yields and crop failure rates are influenced by climate change and the efficacy of adaptation methods to mitigate the effects of climate change. To account for the uncertainties in future climate projections, multiple model runs have been performed at specific warming levels of + 2 K and + 4 K to give a better estimate of future crop yields. Under a warming of + 2 K, the maize yield is projected to reduce by 5.9% with an increase in both mild and severe crop failure rates. Mild and severe crop failures are yields 1 and 1.5 standard deviations below the observed yield. At a warming of + 4 K, the results show a yield reduction of 37% and severe crop failures which previously only occurred once in 19.7 years are expected to happen every 2.5 years. Crops simulated with a resistance to high temperature stress show an increase in yields in all climate conditions compared to unadapted crops; however, they still experience more crop failures than the unadapted crop in the control climate.

Published
2018
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37. What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa?

Author

Kaiyu Guan, Benjamin Sultan, Michela Biasutti, David B. Lobell, Christian Baron, Department of Earth System Science and Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University [Stanford], Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN), Columbia University [New York], Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale (UMR TETIS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-AgroParisTech-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Department of Earth System Science [Stanford] (ESS), Stanford EARTH, Stanford University-Stanford University, Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636))

Subjects
Wet season, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, rainfall, Climate change, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Monsoon, 01 natural sciences, Crop, F01 - Culture des plantes, Yield (wine), West Africa, crop, Rainfed agriculture, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, biology, Crop yield, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Sorghum bicolor, 15. Life on land, Sorghum, biology.organism_classification, climate change, Geophysics, 13. Climate action, Climatology, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, sorghum
Abstract

How rainfall arrives, in terms of its frequency, intensity, the timing and duration of rainy season, may have a large influence on rainfed agriculture. However, a thorough assessment of these effects is largely missing. This study combines a new synthetic rainfall model and two independently validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to assess sorghum yield response to possible shifts in seasonal rainfall characteristics in West Africa. We find that shifts in total rainfall amount primarily drive the rainfall-related crop yield change, with less relevance to intraseasonal rainfall features. However, dry regions (total annual rainfall below 500 mm/yr) have a high sensitivity to rainfall frequency and intensity, and more intense rainfall events have greater benefits for crop yield than more frequent rainfall. Delayed monsoon onset may negatively impact yields. Our study implies that future changes in seasonal rainfall characteristics should be considered in designing specific crop adaptations in West Africa. (Resume d'auteur)

Published
2015
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38. Evaluation of TIGGE precipitation forecasts over West Africa at intraseasonal timescale

Author

Serge Janicot, O. Ndiaye, Samuel Louvet, P. H. Kamsu-Tamo, Benjamin Sultan, Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Agence Nationale de l’Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie (ANACIM), ANR-08-VULN-0008,PICREVAT,Prévisibilité de l'information climatique pour la réduction de la vulnérabilité de l'agriculture tropicale(2008), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636))

Subjects
Wet season, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Meteorology, Intra-seasonal variability, 0208 environmental biotechnology, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 02 engineering and technology, Monsoon, 01 natural sciences, West africa, Latitude, West Africa, Precipitation, TIGGE forecasts, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Meteorological models, Onset, Intertropical Convergence Zone, Ensemble average, Numerical prediction models, 6. Clean water, 020801 environmental engineering, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Environmental science
Abstract

The study evaluated for the first time the ability of meteorological models of TIGGE to forecast the main features of the West African monsoon rainfall. Seven numerical models were retained over the 2008–2012 period and compared to satellite rainfall estimates. We focused on the seasonal cycle and in particular on the onset of the rainy season and on the intra-seasonal variability that are both of high importance for agriculture, water management and health sectors. We found that the seasonal latitudinal shift of the ITCZ is rather well predicted in terms of amplitude and timing by the different models although there is a systematic northward drift in the ITCZ latitude from the lead-times 1- to 10-day. Although the onset date of rainfall varies a lot according to the different definition in the literature, we also found good performance of TIGGE forecasts in predicting the onset date of the monsoon. The analysis of intra-seasonal variability revealed that the skill of TIGGE forecasts is decreasing with the lead-time from 1- to 15-day and the performance of the ensemble mean of all models overcomes the one of any individual models. Overall criteria used in this study (intra-seasonal fluctuations, onset and seasonal cycles), the skill of UKMO and ECMWF models is better than any other model. Based on such analysis it is likely than an ensemble mean based only on these two models would be more skillful than the ensemble mean based on the seven models. TIGGE forecasts represent a promising step towards the delivery of useful climate information to end-users of key sectors such as agriculture, water management, health and public safety.

Published
2015
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39. A bias-corrected CMIP5 dataset for Africa using CDF-t method. A contribution to agricultural impact studies

Author

Adjoua Moise Famien, Serge Janicot, Abe Delfin Ochou, Mathieu Vrac, Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, and Thomas Noël

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to present a new data set of bias-corrected CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) daily data over Africa. This dataset was obtained in using the Cumulative Distribution Function Transform (CDF-t) method, a method that has been applied on several regions and contexts but never on Africa. Here CDF-t is used over the period 1950–2099 combining historical runs and climate change scenarios on 6 variables, precipitation, mean near-surface air temperature, near-surface maximum air temperature, near-surface minimum air temperature, surface down-welling shortwave radiation, and wind speed, which are critical variables for agricultural purposes. Evaluation of the results is carried out over West Africa on a list of priority users-based metrics that was discussed and selected with stakeholders and on simulated yield using a crop model simulating maize growth. Bias-corrected GCMs data are compared with another available dataset of bias-corrected GCMs, and the impact of three different reference datasets on bias-corrections is also examined in details. CDF-t is very effective in removing the biases and in reducing the high inter-GCMs scattering. Differences with other bias-corrected GCMs data are mainly due to the differences between the reference datasets. This is particular true for surface down-welling shortwave radiation, which has impacts in terms of simulated maize yields. Projections of future yields over West Africa have quite different levels, depending on bias-correction method used, but they all show a similar relative decreasing trend over the 21st century.

Published
2017
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41. Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5 K warmer than the pre-industrial

Author

Ben Parkes, Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, Philippe Ciais, Xuhui Wang, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 2. Zero hunger, 13. Climate action, food and beverages, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Abstract

The ability of a country or region to feed itself in the upcoming decades is a question of importance. The population in West Africa is expected to increase significantly in the next 30 years. The responses of food crops to short term climate change is therefore critical to the population at large and the decision makers tasked with providing food for their people. An ensemble of near term climate projections are used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the recent historic and near term future. The mean yields are not expected to alter significantly, while there is an increase in inter annual variability. This increase in variability increases the likelihood of crop failures, which are defined as yield negative anomalies beyond one standard deviation during a period of 20 years. The increasing variability increases the frequency and intensity of crop failures across West Africa. The mean return frequency between mild maize crop failures from process based crop models increases from once every 6.8 years to once every 4.5 years. The mean return time frequency for severe crop failures (beyond 1.5 standard deviations) also almost doubles from once every 16.5 years to once every 8.5 years. Two adaptation responses to climate change, the adoption of heat-resistant cultivars and the use of captured rainwater have been investigated using one crop model in an idealised sensitivity test. The generalised adoption of a cultivar resistant to high temperature stress during flowering is shown to be more beneficial than using rainwater harvesting by both increasing yields and the return frequency of crop failures.

Published
2017
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43. Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability

Author

Adjoua Moise Famien, Jean-Paul Vanderlinden, Mathieu Vrac, Gilles Ramstein, Sylvie Charbit, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Christophe Dumas, Didier Swingedouw, François Gemenne, Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny (UFHB), Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC), Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Cultures, Environnements, Arctique, Représentations, Climat (CEARC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universidad Complutense de Madrid = Complutense University of Madrid [Madrid] (UCM), Financement DSM-énergie CEA, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), and European Project: 692413,H2020,H2020-TWINN-2015,EDGE(2016)

Subjects
Astrofísica, Time Factors, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Greenland, vulnerability, Population, Vulnerability, Social Sciences, Climate change, Fresh Water, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, migration, Global Warming, 01 natural sciences, Effects of global warming, Sahel, Freezing, Water Movements, Humans, Computer Simulation, Ice Cover, Seawater, education, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, education.field_of_study, Multidisciplinary, geography.geographical_feature_category, Future sea level, [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography, Models, Theoretical, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, Iceberg, Astronomía, Ice-sheet model, climate change, Geography, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, impact, ice sheet melting, Ice sheet, Megadrought
Abstract

International audience; The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial/deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agro-ecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting.

Published
2017
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47. Conclusion

Author

Benjamin Sultan, Richard Lalou, Mouftaou Amadou Sanni, Amadou Oumarou, and Mame Arame Soumaré

Published
2017
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48. Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa

Author

Benjamin Sultan, Christian Baron, David B. Lobell, Michela Biasutti, Kaiyu Guan, Department of Earth System Science and Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University [Stanford], Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia University [New York], Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale (UMR TETIS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-AgroParisTech-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Earth System Science [Stanford] (ESS), Stanford EARTH, Stanford University-Stanford University, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636))

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Natural resource economics, adaptation aux changements climatiques, 01 natural sciences, Analyse de système, F01 - Culture des plantes, Floraison, Climate change, Crop model, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, media_common, F07 - Façons culturales, 2. Zero hunger, F63 - Physiologie végétale - Reproduction, Global and Planetary Change, education.field_of_study, Food security, U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques, Ecology, Agriculture, Forestry, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Sorghum bicolor, Pratique culturale, Rendement des cultures, Psychological resilience, Modèle, P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, Stress dû à la sécheresse, Yield (finance), media_common.quotation_subject, Gestion du risque, Population, Évaluation du risque, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Densité de semis, Fertilisation, West Africa, Variété, Adaptation, education, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Changement climatique, Plante céréalière, Modélisation des cultures, business.industry, Modèle de simulation, 15. Life on land, Radiative forcing, Température, 13. Climate action, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Climate model, business, Agronomy and Crop Science, F04 - Fertilisation
Abstract

In the coming decades, the already fragile agricultural system in West Africa will face further challenges in meeting food security, both from increasing population and from the impacts of climate change. Optimal prioritization of adaptation investments requires the assessment of various possible adaptation options and their uncertainties; successful adaptations of agriculture to climate change should not only help farmers deal with current climate risks, but also reduce negative (or enhance positive) impacts associated with climate change using robust climate projections. Here, we use two well-validated crop models (APSIM v7.5 and SARRA-H v3.2) and an ensemble of downscaled climate forcing from the CMIP5 models to assess five possible and realistic adaptation options for the production of the staple crop sorghum (Sorghum bicolor Moench.): (i) late sowing, (ii) intensification of seeding density and fertilizer use, (iii) increasing cultivars’ thermal time requirement, (iv) water harvesting, and (v) increasing resilience to heat stress during the flowering period. We adopt a new assessment framework to account for both the impacts of proposed adaptation options in the historical climate and their ability to reduce the impacts of future climate change, and we also consider changes in both mean yield and inter-annual yield variability. We target the future period of 2031–2060 for the “business-as-usual” scenario (RCP8.5), and compare with the historical period of 1961–1990. Our results reveal that most proposed “adaptation options” are not more beneficial in the future than in the historical climate (−12% to +4% in mean yield), so that they do not really reduce the climate change impacts. Increased temperature resilience during the grain number formation period is the main adaptation that emerges (+4.5%). Intensification of fertilizer inputs can dramatically benefit yields in the historical/current climate (+50%), but does not reduce negative climate change impacts except in scenarios with substantial rainfall increases. Water harvesting contributes to a small benefit in the current climate (+1.5% to +4.0%) but has little additional benefit under climate change. Our analysis of uncertainties arising from crop model differences (conditioned on the used model versions) and various climate model projections provide insights on how to further constrain uncertainties for assessing future climate adaptation options.

Published
2017
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49. Modelling fertiliser significance in three major crops

Author

Philippe Ciais, Ben Parkes, Xuhui Wang, Benjamin Sultan, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
2. Zero hunger, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Crop yield, Yield (finance), 0208 environmental biotechnology, Linear model, [SDV.SA.AGRO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Agronomy, Soil Science, Climatic variables, Statistical model, 02 engineering and technology, Plant Science, 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, 020801 environmental engineering, Maize, Agronomy, 13. Climate action, Wheat, Environmental science, Rice, Statistical modelling, Agronomy and Crop Science, Fertiliser, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

International audience; We present work using two long term climate datasets to show that nitrogen fertiliser is an important aspect of yield projection for three major crops. The ability of linear models using climate variables as predictors to accurately project the yield of maize, rice and wheat over multi-decadal scales is improved with the addition of fertiliser as an input. Highly productive nations including Argentina, India, Poland and South Africa show significant improvement in yield simulations and show that fertiliser use should not be discounted when estimating yield variability. The use of nitrogen fertiliser in the generalised linear models improves yield forecast by 18% using the Princeton climate dataset and 23% using the WFDEI climate dataset. This work therefore supports the use of additional predictors than climate for improving the ability of statistical models to reconstruct yield variability.

Published
2017
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