1. Diagnostic and prognostic performance of the LiverRisk score in tertiary care
- Author
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Georg Semmler, Lorenz Balcar, Benedikt Simbrunner, Lukas Hartl, Mathias Jachs, Michael Schwarz, Benedikt Silvester Hofer, Laurenz Fritz, Anna Schedlbauer, Katharina Stopfer, Daniela Neumayer, Jurij Maurer, Sophie Gensluckner, Bernhard Scheiner, Elmar Aigner, Michael Trauner, Thomas Reiberger, and Mattias Mandorfer
- Subjects
FIB-4 ,Liver stiffness measurement ,LSM ,cACLD ,Chronic liver disease ,Diseases of the digestive system. Gastroenterology ,RC799-869 - Abstract
Background & Aims: The LiverRisk score has been proposed as a blood-based tool to estimate liver stiffness measurement (LSM), thereby stratifying the risk of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD, LSM ≥10 kPa) and liver-related events in patients without known chronic liver disease (CLD). We aimed to evaluate its diagnostic/prognostic performance in tertiary care. Methods: Patients referred to two hepatology outpatient clinics (cohort I, n = 5,897; cohort II, n = 1,558) were retrospectively included. Calibration/agreement of the LiverRisk score with LSM was assessed, and diagnostic accuracy for cACLD was compared with that of fibrosis-4 (FIB-4)/aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI). The prediction of hepatic decompensation and utility of proposed cut-offs were evaluated. Results: In cohort I/II, mean age was 48.3/51.8 years, 44.2%/44.7% were female, predominant etiologies were viral hepatitis (51.8%)/metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (63.7%), median LSM was 6.9 (IQR 5.1–10.9)/5.8 (IQR 4.5–8.8) kPa, and 1,690 (28.7%)/322 (20.7%) patients had cACLD.Despite a moderate correlation (Pearson’s r = 0.325/0.422), the LiverRisk score systematically underestimated LSM (2.93/1.80 points/kPa lower), and range of agreement was wide, especially at higher values.The diagnostic accuracy of the LiverRisk score for cACLD (area under the receiver operator characteristics curve [AUROC] 0.757/0.790) was comparable to that of FIB-4 (AUROC 0.769/0.813) and APRI (AUROC 0.747/0.765). The proposed cut-off of 10 points yielded an accuracy of 74.2%/81.2%, high specificity (91.9%/93.4%), but low negative predictive value (76.6%/84.5%, Cohen’s κ = 0.260/0.327).In cohort I, 208 (3.5%) patients developed hepatic decompensation (median follow-up 4.7 years). The LiverRisk score showed a reasonable accuracy for predicting hepatic decompensation within 1–5 years (AUROC 0.778–0.832). However, it was inferior to LSM (AUROC 0.847–0.901, p
- Published
- 2024
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