Search

Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions., Competing Interests: The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest., (© 2022 The Authors. Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Synonymous mutations are often assumed to be neutral with respect to fitness because they do not alter the encoded amino acid and so cannot be "seen" by natural selection. Yet a growing body of evidence suggests that synonymous mutations can have fitness effects that drive adaptive evolution through their impacts on gene expression and protein folding. Here, we review what microbial experiments have taught us about the contribution of synonymous mutations to adaptation. A survey of site-directed mutagenesis experiments reveals the distributions of fitness effects for nonsynonymous and synonymous mutations are more similar, especially for beneficial mutations, than expected if all synonymous mutations were neutral, suggesting they should drive adaptive evolution more often than is typically observed. A review of experimental evolution studies where synonymous mutations have contributed to adaptation shows they can impact fitness through a range of mechanisms including the creation of illicit RNA polymerase binding sites impacting transcription and changes to mRNA folding stability that modulate translation. We suggest that clonal interference in evolving microbial populations may be the reason synonymous mutations play a smaller role in adaptive evolution than expected based on their observed fitness effects. We finish by discussing the impacts of falsely assuming synonymous mutations are neutral and discuss directions for future work exploring the role of synonymous mutations in adaptive evolution., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.)

The fitness effects of synonymous mutations, nucleotide changes that do not alter the encoded amino acid, have often been assumed to be neutral, but a growing body of evidence suggests otherwise. We used site-directed mutagenesis coupled with direct measures of competitive fitness to estimate the distribution of fitness effects among synonymous mutations for a gene under directional selection and capable of adapting via synonymous nucleotide changes. Synonymous mutations had highly variable fitness effects, both deleterious and beneficial, resembling those of nonsynonymous mutations in the same gene. This variation in fitness was underlain by changes in transcription linked to the creation of internal promoter sites. A positive correlation between fitness and the presence of synonymous substitutions across a phylogeny of related Pseudomonads suggests these mutations may be common in nature. Taken together, our results provide the most compelling evidence to date that synonymous mutations with non-neutral fitness effects may in fact be commonplace., Competing Interests: EL, NM, SB, AH, RK No competing interests declared, (© 2019, Lebeuf-Taylor et al.)

Parallel evolution, defined as identical changes arising in independent populations, is often attributed to similar selective pressures favoring the fixation of identical genetic changes. However, some level of parallel evolution is also expected if mutation rates are heterogeneous across regions of the genome. Theory suggests that mutation and selection can have equal impacts on patterns of parallel evolution; however, empirical studies have yet to jointly quantify the importance of these two processes. Here, we introduce several statistical models to examine the contributions of mutation and selection heterogeneity to shaping parallel evolutionary changes at the gene-level. Using this framework, we analyze published data from forty experimentally evolved Saccharomyces cerevisiae populations. We can partition the effects of a number of genomic variables into those affecting patterns of parallel evolution via effects on the rate of arising mutations, and those affecting the retention versus loss of the arising mutations (i.e., selection). Our results suggest that gene-to-gene heterogeneity in both mutation and selection, associated with gene length, recombination rate, and number of protein domains drive parallel evolution at both synonymous and nonsynonymous sites. While there are still a number of parallel changes that are not well described, we show that allowing for heterogeneous rates of mutation and selection can provide improved predictions of the prevalence and degree of parallel evolution.

Across the great diversity of life, there are many compelling examples of parallel and convergent evolution-similar evolutionary changes arising in independently evolving populations. Parallel evolution is often taken to be strong evidence of adaptation occurring in populations that are highly constrained in their genetic variation. Theoretical models suggest a few potential factors driving the probability of parallel evolution, but experimental tests are needed. In this study, we quantify the degree of parallel evolution in 15 replicate populations of Pseudomonas fluorescens evolved in five different environments that varied in resource type and arrangement. We identified repeat changes across multiple levels of biological organization from phenotype, to gene, to nucleotide, and tested the impact of 1) selection environment, 2) the degree of adaptation, and 3) the degree of heterogeneity in the environment on the degree of parallel evolution at the gene-level. We saw, as expected, that parallel evolution occurred more often between populations evolved in the same environment; however, the extent of parallel evolution varied widely. The degree of adaptation did not significantly explain variation in the extent of parallelism in our system but number of available beneficial mutations correlated negatively with parallel evolution. In addition, degree of parallel evolution was significantly higher in populations evolved in a spatially structured, multiresource environment, suggesting that environmental heterogeneity may be an important factor constraining adaptation. Overall, our results stress the importance of environment in driving parallel evolutionary changes and point to a number of avenues for future work for understanding when evolution is predictable., (© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Conventional wisdom holds that synonymous mutations, nucleotide changes that do not alter the encoded amino acid, have no detectable effect on phenotype or fitness. However, a growing body of evidence from both comparative and experimental studies suggests otherwise. Synonymous mutations have been shown to impact gene expression, protein folding and fitness, however, direct evidence that they can be positively selected, and so contribute to adaptation, is lacking. Here we report the recovery of two beneficial synonymous single base pair changes that arose spontaneously and independently in an experimentally evolved population of Pseudomonas fluorescens. We show experimentally that these mutations increase fitness by an amount comparable to non-synonymous mutations and that the fitness increases stem from increased gene expression. These results provide unequivocal evidence that synonymous mutations can drive adaptive evolution and suggest that this class of mutation may be underappreciated as a cause of adaptation and evolutionary dynamics.

Competitors are known to be important in governing the outcome of evolutionary diversification during an adaptive radiation, but the precise mechanisms by which they exert their effects remain elusive. Using the model adaptive radiation of Pseudomonas fluorescens, we show experimentally that the effect of competition on diversification of a focal lineage depends on both the strength of competition and the ability of the competitors to diversify. We provide evidence that the extent of diversification in the absence of interspecific competitors depends on the strength of resource competition. We also show that the presence of competitors can actually increase diversity by increasing interspecific resource competition. Competitors that themselves are able to diversify prevent diversification of the focal lineage by removing otherwise available ecological opportunities. These results suggest that the progress of an adaptive radiation depends ultimately on the strength of resource competition, an effect that can be exaggerated or impeded by the presence of competitors.

Abundant ecological opportunity is thought to drive adaptation and diversification. The presence of multiple opportunities leads to divergent selection, which can slow adaptation when niche-specific beneficial mutations have antagonistically pleiotropic effects. Alternately, competition for multiple opportunities can generate divergent selection, which leads to high rates of adaptive differentiation. Which outcome occurs may depend on the spatial structure of those ecological opportunities. In a mixture of resources, competition for multiple opportunities can drive divergent selection; however, if each resource is available in a spatially distinct patch, simultaneous competition for multiple opportunities cannot occur. We report the effects of the extent and spatial structure of ecological opportunity on the evolutionary dynamics of populations of Pseudomonas fluorescens over 1,000 generations. We varied the extent of ecological opportunity by varying the number of sugar resources (mannose, glucose, and xylose), and we varied spatial structure by providing resources in either mixtures or spatially distinct patches. We saw that a particularly novel resource (xylose) drove the rate of adaptation when provided in a mixture but had no effect on diversity. Instead, we saw the evolution of a single adaptive strategy that differed with respect to phenotype and degree of specialization, depending on both the extent and the spatial structure of ecological opportunity.

Fifty-six African-American women between the ages of 20 and 84 who had completed a minimum of 4 years of college and were employed in professional positions (eg, teacher, technician, lawyer, and physician) were identified in San Antonio, Texas. Specific information concerning marital status, income, home ownership, family of origin, presence of professional siblings, husbands' characteristics, medical and psychiatric health, and significant influences in their lives were obtained by a semistructured interview. This article summarizes the results of these interviews and presents the techniques used to identify this sample of African-American, middle-class women.