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1. Improving Human Decisions by Adjusting the Alerting Thresholds for Computer Alerting Tools According to User and Task Characteristics

Author

Gadala, Marwa, Strigini, Lorenzo, and Ayton, Peter

Subjects
Computer Science - Human-Computer Interaction, H.1.2, H.5, H.4.2, J.3, J.5, J.0, J.1
Abstract

Objective: To investigate whether performance (number of correct decisions) of humans supported by a computer alerting tool can be improved by tailoring the tool's alerting threshold (sensitivity/specificity combination) according to user ability and task difficulty. Background: Many researchers implicitly assume that for each tool there exists a single ideal threshold. But research shows the effects of alerting tools on decision errors to vary depending on variables such as user ability and task difficulty. These findings motivated our investigation. Method: Forty-seven participants edited text passages, aided by a simulated spell-checker tool. We experimentally manipulated passage difficulty and tool alerting threshold, measured participants' editing and dictation ability, and counted participants' decision errors (false positives + false negatives). We investigated whether alerting threshold, user ability, task difficulty and their interactions affected error count. Results: Which alerting threshold better helped a user depended on an interaction between user ability and passage difficulty. Some effects were large: for higher ability users, a more sensitive threshold reduced errors by 30%, on the easier passages. Participants were not significantly more likely to prefer the alerting threshold with which they performed better. Conclusion: Adjusting alerting thresholds for individual users' ability and task difficulty could substantially improve effects of automated alerts on user decisions. This potential deserves further investigation. Improvement size and rules for adjustment will be application-specific. Application: Computer alerting tools have critical roles in many domains. Designers should assess potential benefits of adjustable alerting thresholds for their specific CAT application. Guidance for choosing thresholds will be essential for realizing these benefits in practice., Comment: 25 pages, 5 figures

Published
2021

15. Adaptation to imprisonment: indigenous or imported?

Author

Dhami, Mandeep K., Ayton, Peter, and Loewenstein, George

Subjects
Prisoners -- Surveys, Prison administration -- Influence, Adaptation level (Psychology) -- Testing, Prison sentences -- Influence, Law, Psychology and mental health
Abstract

The study investigated the effects of time spent in prison and quality of life before prison on male, federally sentenced prisoners' adaptations to imprisonment, controlling for sentence length and prison security level. Data consisted of responses on a self-administered survey completed by 712 prisoners. Findings tended to support the independent effects of the indigenous (deprivation) and importation approaches rather than their interaction effects. Time spent in prison had a direct effect on prisoners' participation in programs, their thoughts of needing control over their lives, their feelings of hopelessness, and their disciplinary infractions in prison. Prisoners' quality of life before prison had a direct effect on their participation in programs, their feelings of happiness, and their prison infractions. Finally, time spent in prison and quality of life before prison interacted to affect prisoners' contact with their family and friends. Keywords: deprivation model; importation model; prisoner adaptation; disciplinary infractions; prison regime; prison security; psychological adjustment

Published
2007

19. Number Needed To Treat

Author

North, Diana, Ayton, Peter, Buchan, Iain E., Pickin, Mark, and Nicholl, Jon

Published
1995

21. The meerkat effect: Personality and market returns affect investors' portfolio monitoring behaviour

Author

Gherzi, Svetlana, Egan, Dan, Stewart, Neil, Haisley, Emily, and Ayton, Peter

Subjects
HD, Economics and Econometrics, Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management, Individual investors, Investment decisions, Behavioural finance, BF, ComputingMilieux_LEGALASPECTSOFCOMPUTING, Selective attention, Ostrich effect, QC, Personality
Abstract

Karlsson, Loewenstein and Seppi (2009) found that, following market downswings, investors are less likely to login to monitor their retirement portfolios. They concluded that, rather like (apocryphal) ostriches sticking their heads in the sand, investors avoid unpleasant information by reducing portfolio monitoring in response to news of negative market movement. We apply generalised non-linear mixed effects models to test for this selective information monitoring at an individual level in a new sample of active online investors. We see different behaviour in this new sample. We find that investors increase their portfolio monitoring following both positive and daily negative market returns, behaving more like hyper-vigilant meerkats than head-in-the-sand ostriches. This pattern persists for logins not resulting in trades and weekend logins when markets are closed. Moreover, an investor personality trait – neuroticism – moderates the pattern of portfolio monitoring suggesting that market – driven variation in portfolio monitoring is attributable to psychological factors.

Published
2014

22. Call it quits.

Author

Ayton, Peter and Arkes, Hal

Subjects
*LOGICAL fallacies, *HUMAN behavior
Abstract

Attempts to answer the question why humans don't know when to `cut their losses.' Details of the so-called sunk-cost fallacy in which humans tend to judge options according to the size of the previous investments rather than the size of the expected return; Indications of the so-called Concorde fallacy seen in the animal kingdom; Reasons why humans are less likely to avoid decisions in which they will lose money.

Published
1998

25. Relative income position, inequality and performance: an empirical panel analysis

Author

Andersson, Patric, Ayton, Peter, Schmidt, Carsten, Andersson, P ( Patric ), Ayton, P ( Peter ), Schmidt, C ( Carsten ), Frey, Bruno S, Schmidt, Sascha L, Torgler, Benno, Andersson, Patric, Ayton, Peter, Schmidt, Carsten, Andersson, P ( Patric ), Ayton, P ( Peter ), Schmidt, C ( Carsten ), Frey, Bruno S, Schmidt, Sascha L, and Torgler, Benno

Published
2008

28. New perspectives for motivating better decisions in older adults.

Author

Strough, JoNell, de Bruin, Wändi Bruine, Peters, Ellen, Ayton, Peter, and Petrova, Dafina

Subjects
MOTIVATION (Psychology), DECISION making & psychology, GERIATRIC psychology, COGNITIVE ability, SELF-efficacy
Abstract

Decision-making competence in later adulthood is affected by declines in cognitive skills, and age-related changes in affect and experience can sometimes compensate. However, recent findings suggest that age-related changes in motivation also affect the extent to which adults draw from experience, affect, and deliberative skills when making decisions. To date, relatively little attention has been given to strategies for addressing age-related changes in motivation to promote better decisions in older adults. To address this limitation, we draw from diverse literatures to suggest promising intervention strategies for motivating older recipients' motivation to make better decisions. We start by reviewing the life-span developmental literature, which suggests that older adults' motivation to put effort into decisions depends on the perceived personal relevance of decisions as well as their self-efficacy (i.e., confidence in applying their ability and knowledge). Next, we discuss two approaches from the health intervention design literature, the mental models approach and the patient activation approach, which aim to improve motivation for decision making by improving personal relevance or by building self-efficacy or confidence to use new information and skills. Using examples from these literatures, we discuss how to construct interventions to motivate good decisions in later adulthood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2015
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30. Health, wellbeing, and social interaction: an international and demographic analysis of perceived life changes and the positives and negatives of the COVID-19 lockdown

Author

Murray, Jennifer, Dhami, Mandeep K., McClatchey, Kirstie, Weiss-Cohen, Leonardo, and Ayton, Peter

Subjects
lockdown, wellbeing, COVID-19, social interaction, perceptions of change
Abstract

Research suggests that people’s experiences of COVID-19 lockdowns have been detrimental to their lives and wellbeing. The current research compared the experiences and perceptions on health, wellbeing and social interaction of 300 UK adults and 450 adults in California. Individuals reported whether aspects of their life had changed for the better, worse, or not at all during lockdown in April 2020, and what the “best” and “worst” things about lockdown were. There were more similarities than differences in the regional comparison of perceptions of changes in specific aspects of ‘health and wellbeing’ and ‘social interaction’. Both regions reported the same number and nature of best and worst things about lockdown. Overarching themes of ‘health, self and wellbeing’, ‘being with others’, and ‘concerns with daily living’ were identified. Although reports of life changes and the positives and negatives of lockdown were similar across different demographic groups, some differences were present by age, sex, relationship, and family-status. Incorporating knowledge of unified and positive experiences of lockdown can be useful in informing future lockdown restrictions and supporting the population when restrictions are lifted.

31. So you think your vote counts.

Author

Ayton, Peter

Subjects
*RATIONALISM, *VOTING, *PSYCHOLOGY
Abstract

Considers the rational aspect of voting. Benefits of voting; Justification made about voting; Other activities which show the same illusion of thinking as with voting.

Published
2001

32. DON'T TALK TO ME NOW!

Author

Ayton, Peter

Subjects
*AUTOMOBILE driving, *TELEPHONE etiquette, *TRAFFIC safety
Abstract

Discusses the issue on having a telephone conversation while driving. Mental demands of the activity; Danger associated with phoning while driving; Capacity of human information processing.

Published
2001

33. Regrets, I've had a few...

Author

Ayton, Peter

Subjects
*REGRET, *PSYCHOLOGY
Abstract

Discusses regret and the experience of the author with regret. Psychological aspects of regret; Effect of regret on decision-making; Study of Ilana Ritov and Jonathan Baron concerning risk and regret.

Published
2001

34. You can't argue with that.

Author

Ayton, Peter

Subjects
*BELIEF & doubt, *SCIENTISTS, *SKEPTICISM, *ATTITUDE change (Psychology)
Abstract

Offers the opinion that humans are reluctant to change their minds about strongly held beliefs. Opinion that scientists are among the most vehement adherents to ideas; Study in which skeptics and believers were asked to rate the methodological quality of a study on extrasensory perception (ESP); Tendency of the human brain to reinterpret awkward realities to fit easy suppositions.

Published
2000

35. If you're happy and you know it...

Author

Ayton, Peter

Subjects
*HAPPINESS, *EMOTIONS, *PSYCHOLOGY & weather, *ENVIRONMENTAL psychology
Abstract

Reports on the results of a study which suggests that humans' sense of happiness is linked to current preoccupations. Details of the study, in which students responded to questions regarding their level of happiness and how many dates they went on the previous month; Discovery that students felt happier on sunny days than in rainy weather; Opinion that an immediate concern with the present makes people overestimate the duration of emotional reactions.

Published
2000

36. Lies I tell myself.

Author

Ayton, Peter

Subjects
*DOG racing, *GAMBLING & psychology, *GAMBLER psychology, *PSYCHOLOGY
Abstract

Discusses the author's observations of people at a dog track. Belief that people like to hear good news about themselves; Insight on the rationality of gambling without placing a bet; Discussion of the psychology behind gambling.

Published
2000

37. Ditherer's dilemma.

Author

Ayton, Peter

Subjects
*CHOICE (Psychology), *DECISION making
Abstract

Focuses on the increasing complexity of choice in modern culture. Results of an experiment in decision-making by Princeton University psychologist Eldar Shafir; The difference between rejection and selection.

Published
2000

40. Clear cut.

Author

Ayton, Peter

Subjects
*CIRCUMCISION, *NEONATAL surgery, *UNNECESSARY surgery, *PROFESSIONAL ethics of surgeons, SOCIAL aspects
Abstract

Examines the reasons for post-natal circumcision in the United States. Why the procedure is lucrative work for the medical profession; Origins of the procedure; Comment that proof of medical benefits from the procedure is elusive; Suggestion that circumcision is a form of mutilation.

Published
1999

41. Fonder memories.

Author

Ayton, Peter

Subjects
*RECOLLECTION (Psychology), *MEMORY, *PRISON psychology, *MOUNTAINEERS, *PSYCHOLOGY
Abstract

Focuses on the brain's biases in compressing time and recalling unpleasant memories. Role of distorted memories in the behavior of prisoners and mountaineers; Ethical and metaphysical dilemmas posed by distorted memories.

Published
1999

42. Fallacy football.

Author

Ayton, Peter

Subjects
*SOCCER, *SPORTS, *SPORTS officiating, *EXAMINATIONS
Abstract

Explores some of soccer's most enduring myths. Whether player's scoring streaks increase their likelihood to score again; If a player who has failed to score in his last few games is less likely to score the next time; Whether scoring before half-time has extra impact; Whether all teams are vulnerable after scoring; Analysis of each question.

Published
1998

43. A behavioural analysis of individual choices and decisions concerning pension fund decumulation

Author

Searle Leon, Pamela Paz, Clacher, Iain, and Ayton, Peter

Abstract

Many experimental studies find individuals make systematic decision errors in research tasks designed to mimic the annuitization decision. This reliance on experimental approaches is due to a lack of data on actual decision-making on the decumulation of pension assets. Using a unique dataset capturing the actual retirement product options presented to retirees, along with their subsequent choices, this thesis analyses three different aspects of decision-making at annuitization. First, it investigates whether individuals correctly assess the risk of default of annuity providers and incorporate this information into their decision-making when selecting annuities at retirement. To this end, we exploit an exogenous change in policy which decreased the coverage of government guarantees against annuity provider default. We show that individuals' decisions are not impacted by their protection against the risk of default. Individuals are therefore unnecessarily reducing their annuity payments by not incorporating crucial information about their actual risk exposure to default into their annuity selections. Second, it analyses intra-household dynamics and whether the annuitization decisions of married couples are governed by an intra-couple bargaining process. To do so, we exploit an exogenous shock in the incentives of men to annuitize on retirement. The analysis finds that annuitization decisions of married couples are made jointly. Further, the spouse with the lowest pension wealth of the household, i.e., the lowest relative bargaining power, essentially provides longevity insurance for the household by annuitizing on retirement. Last, it examines whether choice overload affects annuitization. The findings show the likelihood of annuitizing increases with larger choice sets. However, consistent with choice overload, the probability of choosing a dominated annuity that provides lower payments increases as the choice set increases.

Published
2022

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