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Natural systems exhibit high spatial variability across multiple scales. Models that can capture ecosystem dynamics across space and time by explicitly incorporating major biological mechanisms are crucial, both for management and for ecological insight. In the case of coral reef systems, much focus has been on modelling variability between reefs, despite substantial variability also existing within reefs. We developed C~scape, a coral metacommunity modelling framework that integrates the demography of corals with population-level responses to physical and environmental spatial layers, to facilitate spatiotemporal predictions of coral dynamics across reefs at fine (100s of metres to kilometres) scales. We used satellite-derived habitat maps to modulate community growth spatially, as a proxy for the many interacting physical and environmental factors-e.g., depth, light, wave exposure, temperature, and substrate type-that drive within-reef variability in coral demography. With a case study from the Great Barrier Reef, we demonstrate the model's capability for producing hindcasts of coral cover dynamics and show that overlooking within-reef variability may lead to misleading conclusions about metacommunity dynamics. C~scape provides a valuable framework for exploring a range of management and restoration scenarios at relevant spatial scales., (© 2024. Crown.)

On the iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the cumulative impacts of tropical cyclones, marine heatwaves and regular outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS) have severely depleted coral cover. Climate change will further exacerbate this situation over the coming decades unless effective interventions are implemented. Evaluating the efficacy of alternative interventions in a complex system experiencing major cumulative impacts can only be achieved through a systems modelling approach. We have evaluated combinations of interventions using a coral reef meta-community model. The model consisted of a dynamic network of 3753 reefs supporting communities of corals and CoTS connected through ocean larval dispersal, and exposed to changing regimes of tropical cyclones, flood plumes, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification. Interventions included reducing flood plume impacts, expanding control of CoTS populations, stabilizing coral rubble, managing solar radiation and introducing heat-tolerant coral strains. Without intervention, all climate scenarios resulted in precipitous declines in GBR coral cover over the next 50 years. The most effective strategies in delaying decline were combinations that protected coral from both predation (CoTS control) and thermal stress (solar radiation management) deployed at large scale. Successful implementation could expand opportunities for climate action, natural adaptation and socioeconomic adjustment by at least one to two decades., (© 2021 The Authors.)

Climate change is impacting coral reefs now. Recent pan-tropical bleaching events driven by unprecedented global heat waves have shifted the playing field for coral reef management and policy. While best-practice conventional management remains essential, it may no longer be enough to sustain coral reefs under continued climate change. Nor will climate change mitigation be sufficient on its own. Committed warming and projected reef decline means solutions must involve a portfolio of mitigation, best-practice conventional management and coordinated restoration and adaptation measures involving new and perhaps radical interventions, including local and regional cooling and shading, assisted coral evolution, assisted gene flow, and measures to support and enhance coral recruitment. We propose that proactive research and development to expand the reef management toolbox fast but safely, combined with expedient trialling of promising interventions is now urgently needed, whatever emissions trajectory the world follows. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of embracing new interventions in a race against time, including their risks and uncertainties. Ultimately, solutions to the climate challenge for coral reefs will require consideration of what society wants, what can be achieved technically and economically, and what opportunities we have for action in a rapidly closing window. Finding solutions that work for coral reefs and people will require exceptional levels of coordination of science, management and policy, and open engagement with society. It will also require compromise, because reefs will change under climate change despite our best interventions. We argue that being clear about society's priorities, and understanding both the opportunities and risks that come with an expanded toolset, can help us make the most of a challenging situation. We offer a conceptual model to help reef managers frame decision problems and objectives, and to guide effective strategy choices in the face of complexity and uncertainty., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Resilience underpins the sustainability of both ecological and social systems. Extensive loss of reef corals following recent mass bleaching events have challenged the notion that support of system resilience is a viable reef management strategy. While resilience-based management (RBM) cannot prevent the damaging effects of major disturbances, such as mass bleaching events, it can support natural processes that promote resistance and recovery. Here, we review the potential of RBM to help sustain coral reefs in the 21st century. We explore the scope for supporting resilience through existing management approaches and emerging technologies and discuss their opportunities and limitations in a changing climate. We argue that for RBM to be effective in a changing world, reef management strategies need to involve both existing and new interventions that together reduce stress, support the fitness of populations and species, and help people and economies to adapt to a highly altered ecosystem., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Corals of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) have declined over the past 30 years. While reef state depends on the balance between disturbance and recovery, most studies have focused on the effects of disturbance on reef decline. We show that coral recovery rates across the GBR declined by an average of 84% between 1992 and 2010. Recovery was variable: Some key coral types had close to zero recovery by the end of that period, whereas some reefs exhibited high recovery. Our results indicate that coral recovery is sensitive to chronic but manageable pressures, and is suppressed for several years following acute disturbances. Loss of recovery capacity was partly explained by the cumulative effects of chronic pressures including water quality, warming, and sublethal effects of acute disturbances (cyclones, outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish, and coral bleaching). Modeled projections indicate that recovery rates can respond rapidly to reductions in acute and chronic stressors, a result that is consistent with fast recovery observed on some reefs in the central and southern GBR since the end of the study period. A combination of local management actions to reduce chronic disturbances and global action to limit the effect of climate change is urgently required to sustain GBR coral cover and diversity.

Australia's iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR) continues to suffer from repeated impacts of cyclones, coral bleaching, and outbreaks of the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), losing much of its coral cover in the process. This raises the question of the ecosystem's systemic resilience and its ability to rebound after large-scale population loss. Here, we reveal that around 100 reefs of the GBR, or around 3%, have the ideal properties to facilitate recovery of disturbed areas, thereby imparting a level of systemic resilience and aiding its continued recovery. These reefs (1) are highly connected by ocean currents to the wider reef network, (2) have a relatively low risk of exposure to disturbances so that they are likely to provide replenishment when other reefs are depleted, and (3) have an ability to promote recovery of desirable species but are unlikely to either experience or spread COTS outbreaks. The great replenishment potential of these 'robust source reefs', which may supply 47% of the ecosystem in a single dispersal event, emerges from the interaction between oceanographic conditions and geographic location, a process that is likely to be repeated in other reef systems. Such natural resilience of reef systems will become increasingly important as the frequency of disturbances accelerates under climate change.

Coral reefs are one of the most vulnerable ecosystems to ocean acidification. While our understanding of the potential impacts of ocean acidification on coral reef ecosystems is growing, gaps remain that limit our ability to translate scientific knowledge into management action. To guide solution-based research, we review the current knowledge of ocean acidification impacts on coral reefs alongside management needs and priorities. We use the world's largest continuous reef system, Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), as a case study. We integrate scientific knowledge gained from a variety of approaches (e.g., laboratory studies, field observations, and ecosystem modelling) and scales (e.g., cell, organism, ecosystem) that underpin a systems-level understanding of how ocean acidification is likely to impact the GBR and associated goods and services. We then discuss local and regional management options that may be effective to help mitigate the effects of ocean acidification on the GBR, with likely application to other coral reef systems. We develop a research framework for linking solution-based ocean acidification research to practical management options. The framework assists in identifying effective and cost-efficient options for supporting ecosystem resilience. The framework enables on-the-ground OA management to be the focus, while not losing sight of CO2 mitigation as the ultimate solution., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The sea anemone Metridium senile is a quantitatively important passive suspension feeder in hard-bottom communities on the west coast of Sweden and occurs in aggregations with different size distributions. This study tests the hypothesis that different polyp sizes have different optimal flow regimes maximizing prey capture. Results showed that prey capture by M. senile is a function of both flow regime and polyp size, and different optimal flow regimes exist for different size classes. Large anemones had a maximum feeding efficiency at the slowest flow, medium-sized anemones at moderate flow, and small anemones at moderate- to high-flow regimes. Small anemones showed consistently higher feeding rates (per unit of biomass and area of tentacle crown) at all velocities above 10 cm s-1 and exhibited less flow-induced deformation of the tentacle crown, suggesting that small anemones are better at feeding in moderate- to high-flow habitats. Different vertical projections of large and small anemones in the boundary layer could only partly account for differences in feeding success among size classes. Feeding rate was also a function of upstream conspecifics, declining asymptotically to 30% of the maximum rate. The negative effects of neighbors on feeding in aggregations with clonal rather than polyp growth appear to be compensated for by the generally higher feeding efficiency of small polyps.