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Open education materials are critical for the advancement of open science and the development of open-source soft-ware. These accessible and transparent materials provide an important pathway for sharing both standard geospa-tial analysis workflows and advanced research methods. Computational notebooks allow users to share live code with in-line visualizations and narrative text, making them a powerful interactive teaching tool for geospatial analyt-ics. Specifically, Jupyter Notebooks are quickly becoming a standard format in open education. In this article, we intro-duce a new GRASS GIS package, grass.jupyter, that enhances the existing GRASS Python API to allow Jupyter Notebook users to easily manage and visualize GRASS data including spatiotemporal datasets. While there are many Python-based geospatial libraries available for use in Jupyter Notebooks, GRASS GIS has extensive geospatial functionality including support for multi-temporal analysis and dynamic simulations, making it a powerful teaching tool for advanced geospatial analytics. We discuss the devel-opment of grass.jupyter and demonstrate how the package facilitates teaching open-source geospatial mode-ling with a collection of Jupyter Notebooks designed for a graduate-level geospatial modeling course. The open educa-tion notebooks feature spatiotemporal data visualizations, hydrologic modeling, and spread simulations such as the spread of invasive species and urban growth

Ecological forecasting has vast potential to support environmental decision making with repeated, testable predictions across management-relevant timescales and locations. Yet resource managers rarely use co-designed forecasting systems or embed them in decision making. Although prediction of planned management outcomes is particularly important for biological invasions to optimize when and where resources should be allocated, spatial-temporal models of spread typically have not been openly shared, iteratively updated, or interactive to facilitate exploration of management actions. We describe a species-agnostic, open-source framework - called the Pest or Pathogen Spread (PoPS) Forecasting Platform - for co-designing near-term iterative forecasts of biological invasions. Two case studies are presented to demonstrate that iterative calibration yields higher forecast skill than using only the earliest-available data to predict future spread. The PoPS framework is a primary example of an ecological forecasting system that has been both scientifically improved and optimized for real-world decision making through sustained participation and use by management stakeholders.

Ecological forecasts will be best suited to inform intervention strategies if they are accessible to a diversity of decision-makers. Researchers are developing intuitive forecasting interfaces to guide stakeholders through the development of intervention strategies and visualization of results. Yet, few studies to date have evaluated how user interface design facilitates the coordinated, cross-boundary management required for controlling biological invasions. We used a participatory approach to develop complementary tangible and online interfaces for collaboratively forecasting biological invasions and devising control strategies. A diverse group of stakeholders evaluated both systems in the real-world context of controlling sudden oak death, an emerging forest disease killing millions of trees in California and Oregon. Our findings suggest that while both interfaces encouraged adaptive experimentation, tangible interfaces are particularly well suited to support collaborative decision-making. Reflecting on the strengths of both systems, we suggest workbench-style interfaces that support simultaneous interactions and dynamic geospatial visualizations.

Models that are both spatially and temporally dynamic are needed to forecast where and when non-native pests and pathogens are likely to spread, to provide advance information for natural resource managers. The potential US range of the invasive spotted lanternfly (SLF, Lycorma delicatula) has been modeled, but until now, when it could reach the West Coast’s multi-billion-dollar fruit industry has been unknown. We used process-based modeling to forecast the spread of SLF assuming no treatments to control populations occur. We found that SLF has a low probability of first reaching the grape-producing counties of California by 2027 and a high probability by 2033. Our study demonstrates the importance of spatio-temporal modeling for predicting the spread of invasive species to serve as an early alert for growers and other decision makers to prepare for impending risks of SLF invasion. It also provides a baseline for comparing future control options.

Recent advancements in mobile sensing and wearable technologies create new opportunities to improve our understanding of how people experience their environment. This understanding can inform urban design decisions. Currently, an important urban design issue is the adaptation of infrastructure to increasing cycle and e-bike use. Using data collected from 12 cyclists on a cycle highway between two municipalities in The Netherlands, we coupled location and wearable emotion data at a high spatiotemporal resolution to model and examine relationships between cyclists' emotional arousal (operationalized as skin conductance responses) and visual stimuli from the environment (operationalized as extent of visible land cover type). We specifically took a within-participants multilevel modeling approach to determine relationships between different types of viewable land cover area and emotional arousal, while controlling for speed, direction, distance to roads, and directional change. Surprisingly, our model suggests ride segments with views of larger natural, recreational, agricultural, and forested areas were more emotionally arousing for participants. Conversely, segments with views of larger developed areas were less arousing. The presented methodological framework, spatial-emotional analyses, and findings from multilevel modeling provide new opportunities for spatial, data-driven approaches to portable sensing and urban planning research. Furthermore, our findings have implications for design of infrastructure to optimize cycling experiences.

Viewscapes are the visible portions of a landscape that create a visual connection between a human observer and their 3-dimensional surroundings. However, most large area line-of-sight studies have modeled viewscapes using bare-earth digital elevation models, which exclude the 3-D elements of built and natural environments needed to comprehensively understand the scale, complexity and naturalness of an area. In this study, we compared viewscapes derived from LiDAR bare earth (BE) and top-of-canopy (ToC) surface models for 1000 exurban homes in a region of the Rocky Mountains, USA that is experiencing rapid low-density growth. We examined the extent to which the vertical structure of trees and neighboring houses in ToC models – not accounted for in BE models – affect the size and quality of each home’s viewscape. ToC models consistently produced significantly smaller viewscapes compared to BE models across five resolutions of LiDAR-derived models (1, 5, 10, 15, and 30-m). As resolution increased, both ToC and BE models produced increasingly larger, exaggerated viewscapes. Due to their exaggerated size, BE models overestimated the greenness and diversity of vegetation types in viewscapes and underestimated ruggedness of surrounding terrain compared to more realistic ToC models. Finally, ToC models also resulted in more private viewscapes, with exurban residents seeing almost three times fewer neighbors compared to BE models. These findings demonstrate that viewscape studies should consider both vertical and horizontal dimensions of built and natural environments in landscape and urban planning applications.

Managing landscape-scale environmental problems, such as biological invasions, can be facilitated by integrating realistic geospatial models with user-friendly interfaces that stakeholders can use to make critical management decisions. However, gaps between scientific theory and application have typically limited opportunities for model-based knowledge to reach the stakeholders responsible for problem-solving. To address this challenge, we introduce Tangible Landscape, an open-source participatory modeling tool providing an interactive, shared arena for consensus-building and development of collaborative solutions for landscape-scale problems. Using Tangible Landscape, stakeholders gather around a geographically realistic 3D visualization and explore management scenarios with instant feedback; users direct model simulations with intuitive tangible gestures and compare alternative strategies with an output dashboard. We applied Tangible Landscape to the complex problem of managing the emerging infectious disease, sudden oak death, in California and explored its potential to generate co-learning and collaborative management strategies among actors representing stakeholders with competing management aims. Participatory modeling frameworks are needed to bridge research and management.With Tangible Landscape, users guided complex models using tangible gestures.Near real-time 3D visualizations and feedbacks supported collective decision making.Informed individuals engaged in trade-offs that facilitated solution building.

While there are numerical landscape evolution models that simulate how steady state flows of water and sediment reshape topography over long periods of time, r.sim.terrain is the first to simulate short-term topographic change for both steady state and dynamic flow regimes across a range of spatial scales. This free and open source, GIS-based topographic evolution model uses empirical models for soil erosion at watershed to regional scales and a physics-based model for shallow overland water flow and soil erosion at subwatershed scales to compute short-term topographic change. This either steady state or dynamic model simulates how overland sediment mass flows reshape topography for a range of hydrologic soil erosion regimes based on topographic, land cover, soil, and rainfall parameters. As demonstrated by a case study for Patterson Branch subwatershed on the Fort Bragg military installation in North Carolina, r.sim.terrain can realistically simulate the development of fine-scale morphological features including ephemeral gullies, rills, and hillslopes. Applications include land management, erosion control, landscape planning, and landscape restoration.

Spatio-temporal simulations are becoming essential tools for decision makers when forecasting future conditions and evaluating effectiveness of alternative decision scenarios. However, lack of interactive steering capabilities limits the value of advanced stochastic simulations for research and practice. To address this gap we identified conceptual challenges associated with steering stochastic, spatio-temporal simulations and developed solutions that better represent the realities of decision-making by allowing both reactive and proactive, spatially-explicit interventions. We present our approach, in a participatory modeling case study engaging stakeholders in developing strategies to contain the spread of a tree disease in Oregon, USA. Using intuitive interfaces, implemented through web-based and tangible platforms, stakeholders explored management options as the simulation progressed. Spatio-temporal steering allowed them to combine currently used management practices into novel adaptive management strategies, which were previously difficult to test and assess, demonstrating the utility of interactive simulations for decision-making.

Visual characteristics of urban environments influence human perception and behavior, including choices for living, recreation and modes of transportation. Although geospatial visualizations hold great potential to better inform urban planning and design, computational methods are lacking to realistically measure and model urban and parkland viewscapes at sufficiently fine-scale resolution. In this study, we develop and evaluate an integrative approach to measuring and modeling fine-scale viewscape characteristics of a mixed-use urban environment, a city park. Our viewscape approach improves the integration of geospatial and perception elicitation techniques by combining high-resolution lidar-based digital surface models, visual obstruction, and photorealistic immersive virtual environments (IVEs). We assessed the realism of our viewscape models by comparing metrics of viewscape composition and configuration to human subject evaluations of IVEs across multiple landscape settings. We found strongly significant correlations between viewscape metrics and participants&rsquo, perceptions of viewscape openness and naturalness, and moderately strong correlations with landscape complexity. These results suggest that lidar-enhanced viewscape models can adequately represent visual characteristics of fine-scale urban environments. Findings also indicate the existence of relationships between human perception and landscape pattern. Our approach allows urban planners and designers to model and virtually evaluate high-resolution viewscapes of urban parks and natural landscapes with fine-scale details never before demonstrated.

With the advent of the innovative techniques for generating high temporal and spatial resolution terrain models from Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) imagery, it has become possible to precisely map overland flow patterns. Furthermore, the process has become more affordable and efficient through the coupling of small UAS (sUAS) that are easily deployed with Structure from Motion (SfM) algorithms that can efficiently derive 3D data from RGB imagery captured with consumer grade cameras. We propose applying the robust overland flow algorithm based on the path sampling technique for mapping flow paths in the arable land on a small test site in Raleigh, North Carolina. By comparing a time series of five flights in 2015 with the results of a simulation based on the most recent lidar derived DEM (2013), we show that the sUAS based data is suitable for overland flow predictions and has several advantages over the lidar data. The sUAS based data captures preferential flow along tillage and more accurately represents gullies. Furthermore the simulated water flow patterns over the sUAS based terrain models are consistent throughout the year. When terrain models are reconstructed only from sUAS captured RGB imagery, however, water flow modeling is only appropriate in areas with sparse or no vegetation cover.

Accurate information on the number and distribution of pedestrians in space and time helps urban planners maintain current city infrastructure and design better public spaces for local residents and visitors. Previous studies have demonstrated that using webcams together with crowdsourcing platforms to locate pedestrians in the captured images is a promising technique for analyzing pedestrian activity. However, it is challenging to efficiently transform the time series of pedestrian locations in the images to information suitable for geospatial analytics, as well as visualize data in a meaningful way to inform urban design or decision making. In this study, we propose to use a space-time cube (STC) representation of pedestrian data to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of pedestrians in public spaces. We take advantage of AMOS (The Archive of Many Outdoor Scenes), a large database of images captured by thousands of publicly available, outdoor webcams. We developed a method to obtain georeferenced spatio-temporal data from webcams and to transform them into high-resolution continuous representation of pedestrian densities by combining bivariate kernel density estimation with trivariate, spatio-temporal spline interpolation. We demonstrate our method on two case studies analyzing pedestrian activity of two city plazas. The first case study explores daily and weekly spatio-temporal patterns of pedestrian activity while the second one highlights the differences in pattern before and after plaza&rsquo, s redevelopment. While STC has already been used to visualize urban dynamics, this is the first study analyzing the evolution of pedestrian density based on crowdsourced time series of pedestrian occurrences captured by webcam images.

Low-density exurban development represents a unique form of landscape change motivated by aesthetics and individual choice, whether driven by perceptions of beauty or more broadly as worldviews expressed through outward appearance and actions. However, little is known about how individual preferences for new home sites manifest in landscape patterns of exurbanization. In this study, we examine the extent to which viewscapes - the visible part of a landscape that creates connection between people and their surroundings - drive patterns of development in the Sonoita Plain of Arizona. We mapped the locations of over 2,000 homes built before and after the Great Recession (~2010) and calculated line-of-sight viewscapes of each home with four metrics: viewscape area, privacy (number of visible neighbors), greenness (NDVI), and terrain ruggedness. We found that exurban homes have significantly larger and more private viewscapes compared to suburban homes and what would be expected by chance. After 2010, exurban homes were built at locations with yet larger and more private viewscapes even as settlement density increased. An autologistic model of post-2010 settlement patterns showed that viewscape privacy is positively associated with the probability of exurban development after accounting for road proximity and the area and greenness of viewscapes. Application of the predictive model was made possible through a new open-source algorithm that computes spatially continuous, all-possible vantage points (1.3M). Our algorithm allows planners to visualize wall-to-wall spatial patterns of viewscape drivers across a large region and more comprehensively consider the roles that viewscapes play in landscape change.

Increasing population and rural to urban migration are accelerating urbanization globally, permanently transforming natural systems over large extents. Modelling landscape change over large regions, however, presents particular challenges due to local-scale variations in social and environmental factors that drive land change. We simulated urban development across the South Atlantic States (SAS), a region experiencing rapid population growth and urbanization, using FUTURES&mdash, an open source land change model that uses demand for development, local development suitability factors, and a stochastic patch growing algorithm for projecting alternative futures of urban form and landscape change. New advances to the FUTURES modelling framework allow for high resolution projections over large spatial extents by leveraging parallel computing. We simulated the adoption of different urban growth strategies that encourage settlement densification in the SAS as alternatives to the region&rsquo, s increasing sprawl. Evaluation of projected patterns indicate a 15% increase in urban lands by 2050 given a status quo development scenario compared to a 14.8% increase for the Infill strategy. Status quo development resulted in a 3.72% loss of total forests, 2.97% loss of highly suitable agricultural land, and 3.69% loss of ecologically significant lands. An alternative Infill scenario resulted in similar losses of total forest (3.62%) and ecologically significant lands (3.63%) yet consumed less agricultural lands (1.23% loss). Moreover, infill development patterns differed qualitatively from the status quo and resulted in less fragmentation of the landscape.

Epidemiological models are powerful tools for evaluating scenarios and visualizing patterns of disease spread, especially when comparing intervention strategies. However, the technical skill required to synthesize and operate computational models frequently renders them beyond the command of the stakeholders who are most impacted by the results. Participatory modelling (PM) strives to restructure the power relationship between modellers and the stakeholders who rely on model insights by involving these stakeholders directly in model development and application; yet, a systematic literature review indicates little adoption of these techniques in epidemiology, especially plant epidemiology. We investigate the potential for PM to integrate stakeholder and researcher knowledge, using Phytophthora ramorum and the resulting sudden oak death disease as a case study. Recent introduction of a novel strain (European 1 or EU1) in southwestern Oregon has prompted significant concern and presents an opportunity for coordinated management to minimize regional pathogen impacts. Using a PM framework, we worked with local stakeholders to develop an interactive forecasting tool for evaluating landscape-scale control strategies. We find that model co-development has great potential to empower stakeholders in the design, development and application of epidemiological models for disease control. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’.

While free and open source software becomes increasingly important in geospatial research and industry, open science perspectives are generally less reflected in universities’ educational programs. We present an example of how free and open source software can be incorporated into geospatial education to promote open and reproducible science. Since 2008 graduate students at North Carolina State University have the opportunity to take a course on geospatial modeling and analysis that is taught with both proprietary and free and open source software. In this course, students perform geospatial tasks simultaneously in the proprietary package ArcGIS and the free and open source package GRASS GIS. By ensuring that students learn to distinguish between geospatial concepts and software specifics, students become more flexible and stronger spatial thinkers when choosing solutions for their independent work in the future. We also discuss ways to continually update and improve our publicly available teaching materials for reuse by teachers, self-learners and other members of the GIS community. Only when free and open source software is fully integrated into geospatial education, we will be able to encourage a culture of openness and, thus, enable greater reproducibility in research and development applications.

Expansion of urban settlements has caused observed declines in ecosystem services (ES) globally, further stressing the need for informed urban development and policies. Incorporating ES concepts into the decision making process has been shown to support resilient and functional ecosystems. Coupling land change and ES models allows for insights into the impacts and anticipated trade-offs of specific policy decisions. The spatial configuration of urbanization likely influences the delivery and production of ES. When considering multiple ES simultaneously, improving the production of one ecosystem service often results in the decrease in the provision of other ES, giving rise to trade-offs. We examine the impact of three urban growth scenarios on several ES to determine the degree to which spatial configuration of urbanization and the development of natural land cover impacts these services over 25 years. We couple land change and ES models to examine impacts to carbon sequestration, surface water-run off, nitrogen and phosphorus export, organic farming and camping site suitability, to determine trade-offs among the six ES associated with each spatial configuration for western North Carolina. Consequences of urban configurations are dramatic, with degraded ES across all scenarios and substantial variation depending on urban pattern, revealing trade-offs. Counter-intuitive trade-offs between carbon sequestration and lands available for organic farming and camping were observed, suggesting that no configurations result in mutual benefits for all ES. By understanding trade-offs associated with urban configurations, decision makers can identify ES critical to an area and promote configurations that enhance those.

New technologies for terrain reconstruction have increased the availability of topographic data at a broad range of resolutions and spatial extents. The existing digital elevation models (DEMs) can now be updated at a low cost in selected study areas with newer, often higher resolution data using unmanned aerial systems (UAS) or terrestrial sensors. However, differences in spatial coverage and levels of detail often create discontinuities along the newly mapped area boundaries and subsequently lead to artifacts in results of DEM analyses or models of landscape processes. To generate a seamless updated DEM, we propose a generalized approach to DEM fusion with a smooth transition while preserving important topographic features. The transition is controlled by distance-based weighted averaging along the DEMs’ blending overlap with spatially variable width based on elevation differences. We demonstrate the method on two case studies exploring the effects of DEM fusion on water flow modeling in the context of precision agriculture. In the first case study, we update a lidar-based DEM with a fused set of two digital surface models (DSMs) derived from imagery acquired by UAS. In the second application, developed for a tangible geospatial interface, we fuse a georeferenced, physical sand model continuously scanned by a Kinect sensor with a lidar-based DEM of the surrounding watershed in order to computationally simulate and test methods for controlling storm water flow. The results of our experiments demonstrate the importance of seamless, robust fusion for realistic simulation of water flow patterns using multiple high-resolution DEMs.