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2. Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))
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Stanaway, J.D. Afshin, A. Gakidou, E. Lim, S.S. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adane, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Ademi, Z. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Admasie, A. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Agarwal, G. Aggarwal, A. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, S. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Ali, K. Ali, S.M. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Anderson, J.A. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antó, J.M. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Appiah, L.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Ärnlöv, J. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Ataro, Z. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayer, R. Ayuk, T.B. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Ball, K. Ballew, S.H. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Barac, A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Basu, S. Baune, B.T. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Bekru, E.T. Belay, E. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Bergeron, G. Berhane, A. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhalla, A. Bhattarai, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Bjørge, T. Blacker, B.F. Bleyer, A. Borschmann, R. Bou-Orm, I.R. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Brauer, M. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briko, A.N. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Buchbinder, R. Burnett, R.T. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahill, L.E. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Cárdenas, R. Carreras, G. Carrero, J.J. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Castillo Rivas, J. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Causey, K. Cercy, K.M. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, H.-Y. Chang, J.-C. Chang, K.-L. Charlson, F.J. Chattopadhyay, A. Chattu, V.K. Chee, M.L. Cheng, C.-Y. Chew, A. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chimed-Ochir, O. Chin, K.L. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Chowdhury, R. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Cirillo, M. Cohen, A.J. Collado-Mateo, D. Cooper, C. Cooper, O.R. Coresh, J. Cornaby, L. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Costa, M. Cousin, E. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Cundiff, D.K. Daba, A.K. Dachew, B.A. Dadi, A.F. Damasceno, A.A.M. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Darby, S.C. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das Gupta, R. Das Neves, J. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. De la Cruz-Góngora, V. De La Hoz, F.P. De Leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. Degenhardt, L. Deiparine, S. Dellavalle, R.P. Demoz, G.T. Denova-Gutiérrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Deshpande, A. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Deveber, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Dinberu, M.T. Ding, E.L. Diro, H.D. Djalalinia, S. Do, H.P. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebert, N. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Edvardsson, D. Effiong, A. Eggen, A.E. El Bcheraoui, C. El-Khatib, Z. Elyazar, I.R. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Estep, K. Fakhim, H. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farid, T.A. Sá Farinha, C.S.E. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzaei, M.H. Fatima, B. Fay, K.A. Fazaeli, A.A. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrara, G. Ferrari, A.J. Ferreira, M.L. Filip, I. Finger, J.D. Fischer, F. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Fukumoto, T. Fullman, N. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Gall, S. Gallus, S. Gamkrelidze, A. Ganji, M. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadimi, R. Ghadiri, K. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K.G. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Ghosh, R. Ghoshal, A.G. Giampaoli, S. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Gillum, R.F. Ginawi, I.A. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Godwin, W.W. Goli, S. Gómez-Dantés, H. Gona, P.N. Gopalani, S.V. Goulart, A.C. Grada, A. Grams, M.E. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guo, Y. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gutiérrez, R.A. Gutiérrez-Torres, D.S. Haagsma, J.A. Habtewold, T.D. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Hao, Y. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haro, J.M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hawley, C.N. Hay, S.I. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Heibati, B. Heidari, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Heredia-Pi, I. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Higazi, T.B. Hilawe, E.H. Hoek, H.W. Hoffman, H.J. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hoy, D.G. Hsairi, M. Hsiao, T. Hu, G. Hu, H. Huang, J.J. Hussen, M.A. Huynh, C.K. Iburg, K.M. Ikeda, N. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jackson, M.D. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. James, S.L. Jassal, S.K. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Jonas, J.B. Jonnagaddala, J. Jorjoran Shushtari, Z.J. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jürisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Kanchan, T. Kant, S. Kar, C. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B.K. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kawakami, N. Kazemi, Z. Kazemi Karyani, A. Kefale, A.T. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kesavachandran, C.N. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, G. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khater, M.M. Khazaei, M. Khazaie, H. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, C.-I. Kim, D. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kivimäki, M. Knibbs, L.D. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosen, S. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Krohn, K.J. Kromhout, H. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kuzin, I. Kyu, H.H. Lachat, C. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lalloo, R. Lallukka, T. Lami, F.H. Lang, J.J. Lansingh, V.C. Larson, S.L. Latifi, A. Lazarus, J.V. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leili, M. Leshargie, C.T. Leung, J. Levi, M. Lewycka, S. Li, S. Li, Y. Liang, J. Liang, X. Liao, Y. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Linn, S. Liu, S. Lodha, R. Logroscino, G. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lucas, T.C.D. Lunevicius, R. Ma, S. Macarayan, E.R.K. Machado, Í.E. Madotto, F. Mai, H.T. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manda, A.-L. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marks, A. Martin, R.V. Martins, S.C.O. Martins-Melo, F.R. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Mathur, P. Matsushita, K. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Meier, T. Mekonnen, F.A. Melaku, Y.A. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mensah, G.A. Mensink, G.B.M. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Mini, G.K. Mirarefin, M. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Momeniha, F. Monasta, L. Moodley, Y. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mouodi, S. Mousavi, S.M. Mozaffarian, D. Mruts, K.B. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Muhammed, O.S. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Nabhan, A.F. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Naik, N. Najafi, F. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Neal, B. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, N.B. Nichols, E. Nie, J. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nishi, N. Nixon, M.R. Nojomi, M. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Obermeyer, C.M. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K. Oren, E. Orpana, H.M. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Øverland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakhare, A.P. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Pati, S. Patil, S.T. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paudel, D. Paulson, K.R. Paz Ballesteros, W.C. Pearce, N. Pereira, A. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Petzold, M. Pham, H.Q. Phillips, M.R. Pillay, J.D. Piradov, M.A. Pirsaheb, M. Pischon, T. Pishgar, F. Plana-Ripoll, O. Plass, D. Polinder, S. Polkinghorne, K.R. Postma, M.J. Poulton, R. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prabhakaran, D. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Purwar, M.B. Qorbani, M. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, Z. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.H.U. Rahman, M.A. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Rajsic, S. Raju, S.B. Ram, U. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Rath, G.K. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Reddy, K.S. Rehm, C.D. Rehm, J. Reiner, R.C. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Reynales-Shigematsu, L.M. Rezaei, S. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Rivera, J.A. Roba, K.T. Rodríguez-Ramírez, S. Roever, L. Román, Y. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Roth, G.A. Rothenbacher, D. Roy, A. Rubagotti, E. Rushton, L. Sabanayagam, C. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salam, N. Salamati, P. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, D.D. Salz, I. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Niño, M.D. Sánchez-Pimienta, T.G. Sanders, T. Sang, Y. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarmiento-Suárez, R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saylan, M. Sayyah, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Seedat, S. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serre, M.L. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shaddick, G. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shamah Levy, T. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharifi, H. Sharma, J. Sharma, M. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shin, M.-J. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shoman, H. Shrime, M.G. Shupler, M.S. Si, S. Siabani, S. Sibai, A.M. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silva, D.A.S. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Skiadaresi, E. Skirbekk, V. Smith, D.L. Smith, M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Somayaji, R. Soofi, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Spinelli, A. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Starodubov, V.I. Steckling, N. Stein, D.J. Stein, M.B. Stevanovic, G. Stockfelt, L. Stokes, M.A. Sturua, L. Subart, M.L. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sulo, G. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sykes, B.L. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Takahashi, K. Tandon, N. Tassew, S.G. Tavakkoli, M. Taveira, N. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekelemedhin, S.W. Tekle, M.G. Temesgen, H. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Tessema, B. Teweldemedhin, M. Thankappan, K.R. Theis, A. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, H.J. Thomas, M.L. Thomas, N. Thurston, G.D. Tilahun, B. Tillmann, T. To, Q.G. Tobollik, M. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Touvier, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Towbin, J.A. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tudor Car, L. Tuzcu, E.M. Tymeson, H.D. Tyrovolas, S. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Valdez, P.R. Van Donkelaar, A. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Venkateswaran, V. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vu, G.T. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Waller, S.G. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.H. Weldegebreal, F. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, J.J. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wong, T.Y. Wu, S. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yadollahpour, A. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zavala-Arciniega, L. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, H. Zhang, K. Zhou, M. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators
- Abstract
Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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- 2019
3. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
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- Abstract
Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the ?ve leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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- 2018
4. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
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Zenebe, Z.M. Zhang, K. Zhao, Z. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Vos, T. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Disease Injury Incidence Prevalence Collaborators
- Abstract
Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
- Published
- 2018
5. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.
- Author
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She J., Thankappan K.R., Thomas N., Tilahun B., To Q.G., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Torre A.E., Tortajada-Girbes M., Touvier M., Tovani-Palone M.R., Towbin J.A., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsilimbaris M.K., Tsoi D., Tudor Car L., Tuzcu E.M., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Undurraga E.A., Unutzer J., Updike R.L., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Vaduganathan M., Vaezi A., Valdez P.R., Varughese S., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagnew F.S., Waheed Y., Waller S.G., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., West T.E., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Wijeratne T., Wilner L.B., Wilson S., Winkler A.S., Wiyeh A.B., Wiysonge C.S., Wolfe C.D.A., Woolf A.D., Wu S., Wu Y.-C., Wyper G.M.A., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yadollahpour A., Yahyazadeh Jabbari S.H., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zadnik V., Zaidi Z., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zeleke A.J., Zenebe Z.M., Zhang K., Zhao Z., Zhou M., Zodpey S., Zucker I., Vos T., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Fox J., James S.L., Abate D., Abate K.H., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abbasi N., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdela J., Abdelalim A., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe Z., Abera S.F., Abil O.Z., Abraha H.N., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Accrombessi M.M.K., Acharya D., Acharya P., Ackerman I.N., Adamu A.A., Adebayo O.M., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Adib M.G., Adsuar J.C., Afanvi K.A., Afarideh M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Agesa K.M., Aggarwal R., Aghayan S.A., Agrawal S., Ahmadi A., Ahmadi M., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Al-Aly Z., Al-Eyadhy A., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alahdab F., Alam K., Alam T., Alashi 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Gall S., Ganji M., Gankpe F.G., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gardner W.M., Gebre A.K., Gebremedhin A.T., Gebremichael T.G., Gelano T.F., Geleijnse J.M., Genova-Maleras R., Geramo Y.C.D., Gething P.W., Gezae K.E., Ghadiri K., Ghasemi Falavarjani K., Ghasemi-Kasman M., Ghimire M., Ghosh R., Ghoshal A.G., Giampaoli S., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Ginawi I.A., Giussani G., Gnedovskaya E.V., Goldberg E.M., Goli S., Gomez-Dantes H., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gorman T.M., Goulart A.C., Goulart B.N.G., Grada A., Grams M.E., Grosso G., Gugnani H.C., Guo Y., Gupta P.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gyawali B., Haagsma J.A., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Haghparast Bidgoli H., Hagos T.B., Hailu G.B., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hasan M., Hassankhani H., Hassen H.Y., Havmoeller R., Hawley C.N., Hay R.J., Hay S.I., Hedayatizadeh-Omran A., Heibati B., Hendrie D., Henok A., Herteliu C., Heydarpour S., Hibstu D.T., Hoang H.T., Hoek H.W., Hoffman H.J., Hole M.K., Homaie Rad E., Hoogar P., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini S.M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang J.J., Huynh C.K., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C.T., Ileanu B., Ilesanmi O.S., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Irvine C.M.S., Islam S., Islami F., Jacobsen K.H., Jahangiry L., Jahanmehr N., Jain S.K., Jakovljevic M., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jeemon P., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Johnson C.O., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Jungari S.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kalani R., Kanchan T., Karami M., Karami Matin B., Karch A., Karema C., Karimi N., Karimi S.M., Kasaeian A., Kassa D.H., Kassa G.M., Kassa T.D., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Kazemi Karyani A., Keighobadi M.M., Keiyoro P.N., Kemmer L., Kemp G.R., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khafaei B., Khafaie M.A., Khajavi A., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khan M.S., Khan M.A., Khang Y.-H., Khazaei M., Khoja A.T., Khosravi A., Khosravi M.H., Kiadaliri A.A., Kiirithio D.N., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim P., Kim Y.-E., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K.S., Kocarnik J.M., Kochhar S., Kokubo Y., Kolola T., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Kotsakis G.A., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M.A., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Kyu H.H., Lad D.P., Lad S.D., Lafranconi A., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lami F.H., Lansingh V.C., Latifi A., Lau K.M.-M., Lazarus J.V., Leasher J.L., Ledesma J.R., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Levi M., Lewycka S., Li S., Li Y., Liao Y., Liben M.L., Lim L.-L., Lim S.S., Liu S., Lodha R., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Low N., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lucchesi L.R., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Ma S., Macarayan E.R.K., Mackay M.T., Madotto F., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Maghavani D.P., Mahotra N.B., Mai H.T., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manda 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Velasquez I., Morgado-Da-Costa J., Morrison S.D., Moschos M.M., Mousavi S.M., Mruts K.B., Muche A.A., Muchie K.F., Mueller U.O., Muhammed O.S., Mukhopadhyay S., Muller K., Mumford J.E., Murhekar M., Musa J., Musa K.I., Mustafa G., Nabhan A.F., Nagata C., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Nahvijou A., Naik G., Naik N., Najafi F., Naldi L., Nam H.S., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nascimento B.R., Natarajan G., Neamati N., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Neupane S., Newton C.R.J., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen A.Q., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen H.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen M., Nguyen N.B., Nguyen S.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nixon M.R., Nolutshungu N., Nomura S., Norheim O.F., Noroozi M., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J., Nouri H.R., Nourollahpour Shiadeh M., Nowroozi M.R., Nsoesie E.O., Nyasulu P.S., Odell C.M., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olivares P.R., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Ong K.L., Ong S.K., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Otstavnov S.S., overland S., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh P.A., Pacella R., Pakpour A.H., Pana A., Panda-Jonas S., Parisi A., Park E.-K., Parry C.D.H., Patel S., Pati S., Patil S.T., Patle A., Patton G.C., Paturi V.R., Paulson K.R., Pearce N., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Pham H.Q., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Piradov M.A., Pirsaheb M., Pishgar F., Plana-Ripoll O., Plass D., Polinder S., Popova S., Postma M.J., Pourshams A., Poustchi H., Prabhakaran D., Prakash S., Prakash V., Purcell C.A., Purwar M.B., Qorbani M., Quistberg D.A., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Ur Rahman M.H., Rahman M.A., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajati F., Ram U., Ranjan P., Ranta A., Rao P.C., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Reddy K.S., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Rezai M.S., Ribeiro A.L.P., Robinson S.R., Roever L., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Rostami A., Roth G.A., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Sachdev P.S., Sadat N., Saddik B., Sadeghi 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M.G., Si S., Siabani S., Siddiqi T.J., Sigfusdottir I.D., Sigurvinsdottir R., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singam N.S.V., Singh J.A., Singh N.P., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Slepak E.L.N., Sliwa K., Smith D.L., Smith M., Soares Filho A.M., Sobaih B.H., Sobhani S., Sobngwi E., Soneji S.S., Soofi M., Soosaraei M., Sorensen R.J.D., Soriano J.B., Soyiri I.N., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steiner T.J., Stokes M.A., Stovner L.J., Subart M.L., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M.B., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Sutradhar I., Sykes B.L., Sylte D.O., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Tadesse B.T., Tandon N., Tassew S.G., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Taylor H.R., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekalign T.G., Tekelemedhin S.W., Tekle M.G., Temesgen H., Temsah M.-H., Temsah O., Terkawi A.S., and Teweldemedhin M.
- Abstract
Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Method(s): We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we
- Published
- 2018
6. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- Author
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Rabiee R.H.S., Kan H., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Kaul A., Keiyoro P.N., Lyons R.A., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khera S., Tavakkoli M., Khoja T.A.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Skogen J.C., Savic M., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., McGarvey S.T., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Varakin Y.Y., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kudom A.A., Polinder S., Kuipers E.J., Lallukka T., Shiri R., Meretoja T.J., Lam H., Lam J.O., Nachega J.B., Tran B.X., Langan S.M., McKee M., Lavados P.M., Leasher J.L., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liang J., Liu Y., Phillips M.R., Lloyd B.K., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Lunevicius R., Mackay M.T., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Mahdavi M., Marcenes W., Meaney P.A., Margolis D.J., Martinez-Raga J., McMahon B.J., Mehari A., Tedla B.A., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mhimbira F.A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mohammadi A., Monasta L., Montico M., Ronfani L., Morawska L., Norman R.E., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Westerman R., Paternina Caicedo A.J., Murdoch M.E., Seedat S., Wiysonge C.S., Nagel G., Rothenbacher D., Naheed A., Naldi L., Nangia V., Ngalesoni F.N., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie Pete P.M., Nolla J.M., Nunes B.P., Ogbo F.A., Oh I., Ohkubo T., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ortiz A., Ota E., Park E., Passos V.M.D.A., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Pereira D.M., Perez-Padilla R., Pesudovs K., Pillay J.D., Plass D., Platts-Mills J.A., Pond C.D., Prasad N.M., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Refaat A.H., Ribeiro A.L., Rojas-Rueda D., Roy A., Sagar R., Satpathy M., Tandon N., Sahathevan R., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sartorius B., Sawhney M., Schaub M.P., Schneider I.J.C., Silva D.A.S., Schottker B., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., Sharma R., Sharma U., Shin M., Yoon S., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silveira D.G.A., Singh O.P., Singh P.K., Soreide K., Sliwa K., Stein D.J., Soriano J.B., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stathopoulou V., Stovner L.J., Steinke S., Stroumpoulis K., Sunguya B.F., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Takala J.S., Tanne D., Terkawi A.S., Tuzcu E.M., Thomson A.J., Thurston G.D., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Truelsen T., Tsala Dimbuene Z., Tsilimbaris M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Uthman O.A., van Gool C.H., Vasankari T., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Waller S.G., Weichenthal S., White R.A., Williams H.C., Wubshet M., Xavier D., Xu G., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E., Zeeb H., Zuhlke L.J., Vos T., Allen C., Arora M., Barber R.M., Brown A., Carter A., Casey D.C., Charlson F.J., Chen A.Z., Coggeshall M., Cornaby L., Dandona L., Dicker D.J., Dilegge T., Erskine H.E., Ferrari A.J., Fitzmaurice C., Fleming T., Forouzanfar M.H., Fullman N., Goldberg E.M., Graetz N., Haagsma J.A., Hay S.I., Johnson C.O., Kassebaum N.J., Kawashima T., Kemmer L., Khalil I.A., Kyu H.H., Leung J., Lim S.S., Lopez A.D., Marczak L., Mokdad A.H., Naghavi M., Nguyen G., Nsoesie E., Olsen H., Pigott D.M., Pinho C., Rankin Z., Reinig N., Sandar L., Smith A., Stanaway J., Steiner C., Teeple S., Thomas B.A., Troeger C., Wagner J.A., Wang H., Wanga V., Whiteford H.A., Zoeckler L., Alexander L.T., Anderson G.M., Bell B., Bienhoff K., Biryukov S., Blore J., Brown J., Coates M.M., Daoud F., Estep K., Foreman K., Fox J., Friedman J., Frostad J., Godwin W.W., Hancock J., Huynh C., Iannarone M., Kim P., Kutz M., Masiye F., Millear A., Mirarefin M., Mooney M.D., Moradi-Lakeh M., Mullany E., Mumford J.E., Ng M., Rao P., Reitsma M.B., Reynolds A., Roth G.A., Shackelford K.A., Sivonda A., Sligar A., Sorensen R.J.D., Sur P., Vollset S.E., Woodbrook R., Zhou M., Murray C.J.L., Ellenbogen R.G., Kotsakis G.A., Mock C.N., Anderson B.O., Futran N.D., Jensen P.N., Watkins D.A., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., Abajobir A.A., Knibbs L.D., Lalloo R., Scott J.G., Alam N.K.M., Gouda H.N., Guo Y., McGrath J.J., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Bisanzio D., Deribew A., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Rahimi K., Kinfu Y., Duan L., Liu S., Jin Y., Wang L., Ye P., Liang X., Azzopardi P., Gibney K.B., Meretoja A., Alam K., Borschmann R., Colquhoun S.M., Patton G.C., Weintraub R.G., Szoeke C.E.I., Ademi Z., Taylor H.R., Lozano R., Campos-Nonato I.R., Campuzano J.C., Gomez-Dantes H., Heredia-Pi I.B., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Rios Blancas M.J., Servan-Mori E.E., Mensah G.A., Salomon J.A., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Ajala O.N., Barnighausen T., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Wagner G.R., Osman M., Shrime M.G., Fitchett J.R.A., Abate K.H., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abraham B., Abubakar I., Banerjee A., Benzian H., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Ackerman I.N., Buchbinder R., Gabbe B., Thrift A.G., Adebiyi A.O., Akinyemi R.O., Adou A.K., Afanvi K.A., Agardh E.E., Badawi A., Popova S., Agarwal A., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Norrving B., Ahmadieh H., Yaseri M., Jahanmehr N., Al-Aly Z., Driscoll T.R., Kemp A.H., Leigh J., Mekonnen A.B., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Alegretti M.A., Alemu Z.A., Alhabib S., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Guillemin F., Allebeck P., Carrero J.J., Fereshtehnejad S.M., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Melaku Y.A., Ciobanu L.G., Amberbir A., Amini H., Karema C.K., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., Aregay A.F., Betsu B.D., Hailu G.B., Yebyo H.G., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Assadi R., Atique S., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Bacha U., Balakrishnan K., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., Mohammed S., Barregard L., Petzold M., Barrero L.H., Basu A., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beghi E., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Huang J.J., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D., Bernabe E., Hay R.J., Roba H.S., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Piel F.B., Steiner T.J., Bhatt S., Greaves F., Majeed A., Soljak M., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Bjertness E., Htet A.S., Boufous S., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Calabria B., Mitchell P.B., Brainin M., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Lo W.D., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Buckle G.C., Butt Z.A., Lal A., Carabin H., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J., Chiang P.P., Chibueze C.E., Chisumpa V.H., Choi J.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Cooper C., Cortinovis Biotech M.D., Giussani Biol G., Perico D.N., Remuzzi G., Crump J.A., Derrett S., Poulton R.G., Damtew S.A., Deribe K., Hailu A.D., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Jibat T., Taye B., Dargan P.I., das Neves J., Massano J., Santos J.V., Davey G., Davis A.C., Newton J.N., Steel N., De Leo D., Del Gobbo L.C., Dellavalle R.P., Des Jarlais D.C., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Ganguly P., Zodpey S., Diaz-Torne C., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Ram U., Singh A., Verma R.K., Yadav A.K., Duncan B.B., Kieling C., Schmidt M.I., Ebrahimi H., Pishgar F., Farzadfar F., Kasaeian A., Parsaeian M., Heydarpour P., Malekzadeh R., Roshandel G., Sepanlou S.G., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Elyazar I., Endres M., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshrati B., Farid T.A., Khan A.R., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Feigin V.L., Te Ao B.J., Kwan G.F., Felson D.T., Fernandes J.G., Fernandes J.C., Fischer F., Shiue I., Fowkes F.G.R., Franklin R.C., Furst T., Iyer V.J., Gankpe F.G., Gebre T., Geleijnse J.M., Gessner B.D., Ginawi I.A., Giroud M., Gishu M.D., Tura A.K., Glaser E., Halasa Y.A., Shepard D.S., Undurraga E.A., Gona P., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Kissoon N., Kopec J.A., Pourmalek F., Goto A., Inoue M., Grainger R., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Knudsen A.K., Norheim O.F., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hoek H.W., Skirbekk V., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hoy D.G., Huang H., Iburg K.M., Innos K., Kawakami N., Shibuya K., Jacobsen K.H., Jakovljevic M.B., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jayatilleke A.U., Jee S.H., Prabhakaran D., Jiang Y., Jimenez-Corona A., Jonas J.B., Kabir Z., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., Kesavachandran C.N., Rabiee R.H.S., Kan H., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Kaul A., Keiyoro P.N., Lyons R.A., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khera S., Tavakkoli M., Khoja T.A.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Skogen J.C., Savic M., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., McGarvey S.T., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Varakin Y.Y., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kudom A.A., Polinder S., Kuipers E.J., Lallukka T., Shiri R., Meretoja T.J., Lam H., Lam J.O., Nachega J.B., Tran B.X., Langan S.M., McKee M., Lavados P.M., Leasher J.L., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liang J., Liu Y., Phillips M.R., Lloyd B.K., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Lunevicius R., Mackay M.T., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Mahdavi M., Marcenes W., Meaney P.A., Margolis D.J., Martinez-Raga J., McMahon B.J., Mehari A., Tedla B.A., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mhimbira F.A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mohammadi A., Monasta L., Montico M., Ronfani L., Morawska L., Norman R.E., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Westerman R., Paternina Caicedo A.J., Murdoch M.E., Seedat S., Wiysonge C.S., Nagel G., Rothenbacher D., Naheed A., Naldi L., Nangia V., Ngalesoni F.N., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie Pete P.M., Nolla J.M., Nunes B.P., Ogbo F.A., Oh I., Ohkubo T., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ortiz A., Ota E., Park E., Passos V.M.D.A., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Pereira D.M., Perez-Padilla R., Pesudovs K., Pillay J.D., Plass D., Platts-Mills J.A., Pond C.D., Prasad N.M., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Refaat A.H., Ribeiro A.L., Rojas-Rueda D., Roy A., Sagar R., Satpathy M., Tandon N., Sahathevan R., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sartorius B., Sawhney M., Schaub M.P., Schneider I.J.C., Silva D.A.S., Schottker B., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., Sharma R., Sharma U., Shin M., Yoon S., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silveira D.G.A., Singh O.P., Singh P.K., Soreide K., Sliwa K., Stein D.J., Soriano J.B., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stathopoulou V., Stovner L.J., Steinke S., Stroumpoulis K., Sunguya B.F., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Takala J.S., Tanne D., Terkawi A.S., Tuzcu E.M., Thomson A.J., Thurston G.D., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Truelsen T., Tsala Dimbuene Z., Tsilimbaris M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Uthman O.A., van Gool C.H., Vasankari T., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Waller S.G., Weichenthal S., White R.A., Williams H.C., Wubshet M., Xavier D., Xu G., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E., Zeeb H., Zuhlke L.J., Vos T., Allen C., Arora M., Barber R.M., Brown A., Carter A., Casey D.C., Charlson F.J., Chen A.Z., Coggeshall M., Cornaby L., Dandona L., Dicker D.J., Dilegge T., Erskine H.E., Ferrari A.J., Fitzmaurice C., Fleming T., Forouzanfar M.H., Fullman N., Goldberg E.M., Graetz N., Haagsma J.A., Hay S.I., Johnson C.O., Kassebaum N.J., Kawashima T., Kemmer L., Khalil I.A., Kyu H.H., Leung J., Lim S.S., Lopez A.D., Marczak L., Mokdad A.H., Naghavi M., Nguyen G., Nsoesie E., Olsen H., Pigott D.M., Pinho C., Rankin Z., Reinig N., Sandar L., Smith A., Stanaway J., Steiner C., Teeple S., Thomas B.A., Troeger C., Wagner J.A., Wang H., Wanga V., Whiteford H.A., Zoeckler L., Alexander L.T., Anderson G.M., Bell B., Bienhoff K., Biryukov S., Blore J., Brown J., Coates M.M., Daoud F., Estep K., Foreman K., Fox J., Friedman J., Frostad J., Godwin W.W., Hancock J., Huynh C., Iannarone M., Kim P., Kutz M., Masiye F., Millear A., Mirarefin M., Mooney M.D., Moradi-Lakeh M., Mullany E., Mumford J.E., Ng M., Rao P., Reitsma M.B., Reynolds A., Roth G.A., Shackelford K.A., Sivonda A., Sligar A., Sorensen R.J.D., Sur P., Vollset S.E., Woodbrook R., Zhou M., Murray C.J.L., Ellenbogen R.G., Kotsakis G.A., Mock C.N., Anderson B.O., Futran N.D., Jensen P.N., Watkins D.A., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., Abajobir A.A., Knibbs L.D., Lalloo R., Scott J.G., Alam N.K.M., Gouda H.N., Guo Y., McGrath J.J., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Bisanzio D., Deribew A., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Rahimi K., Kinfu Y., Duan L., Liu S., Jin Y., Wang L., Ye P., Liang X., Azzopardi P., Gibney K.B., Meretoja A., Alam K., Borschmann R., Colquhoun S.M., Patton G.C., Weintraub R.G., Szoeke C.E.I., Ademi Z., Taylor H.R., Lozano R., Campos-Nonato I.R., Campuzano J.C., Gomez-Dantes H., Heredia-Pi I.B., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Rios Blancas M.J., Servan-Mori E.E., Mensah G.A., Salomon J.A., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Ajala O.N., Barnighausen T., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Wagner G.R., Osman M., Shrime M.G., Fitchett J.R.A., Abate K.H., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abraham B., Abubakar I., Banerjee A., Benzian H., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Ackerman I.N., Buchbinder R., Gabbe B., Thrift A.G., Adebiyi A.O., Akinyemi R.O., Adou A.K., Afanvi K.A., Agardh E.E., Badawi A., Popova S., Agarwal A., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Norrving B., Ahmadieh H., Yaseri M., Jahanmehr N., Al-Aly Z., Driscoll T.R., Kemp A.H., Leigh J., Mekonnen A.B., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Alegretti M.A., Alemu Z.A., Alhabib S., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Guillemin F., Allebeck P., Carrero J.J., Fereshtehnejad S.M., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Melaku Y.A., Ciobanu L.G., Amberbir A., Amini H., Karema C.K., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., Aregay A.F., Betsu B.D., Hailu G.B., Yebyo H.G., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Assadi R., Atique S., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Bacha U., Balakrishnan K., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., Mohammed S., Barregard L., Petzold M., Barrero L.H., Basu A., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beghi E., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Huang J.J., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D., Bernabe E., Hay R.J., Roba H.S., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Piel F.B., Steiner T.J., Bhatt S., Greaves F., Majeed A., Soljak M., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Bjertness E., Htet A.S., Boufous S., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Calabria B., Mitchell P.B., Brainin M., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Lo W.D., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Buckle G.C., Butt Z.A., Lal A., Carabin H., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J., Chiang P.P., Chibueze C.E., Chisumpa V.H., Choi J.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Cooper C., Cortinovis Biotech M.D., Giussani Biol G., Perico D.N., Remuzzi G., Crump J.A., Derrett S., Poulton R.G., Damtew S.A., Deribe K., Hailu A.D., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Jibat T., Taye B., Dargan P.I., das Neves J., Massano J., Santos J.V., Davey G., Davis A.C., Newton J.N., Steel N., De Leo D., Del Gobbo L.C., Dellavalle R.P., Des Jarlais D.C., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Ganguly P., Zodpey S., Diaz-Torne C., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Ram U., Singh A., Verma R.K., Yadav A.K., Duncan B.B., Kieling C., Schmidt M.I., Ebrahimi H., Pishgar F., Farzadfar F., Kasaeian A., Parsaeian M., Heydarpour P., Malekzadeh R., Roshandel G., Sepanlou S.G., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Elyazar I., Endres M., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshrati B., Farid T.A., Khan A.R., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Feigin V.L., Te Ao B.J., Kwan G.F., Felson D.T., Fernandes J.G., Fernandes J.C., Fischer F., Shiue I., Fowkes F.G.R., Franklin R.C., Furst T., Iyer V.J., Gankpe F.G., Gebre T., Geleijnse J.M., Gessner B.D., Ginawi I.A., Giroud M., Gishu M.D., Tura A.K., Glaser E., Halasa Y.A., Shepard D.S., Undurraga E.A., Gona P., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Kissoon N., Kopec J.A., Pourmalek F., Goto A., Inoue M., Grainger R., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Knudsen A.K., Norheim O.F., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hoek H.W., Skirbekk V., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hoy D.G., Huang H., Iburg K.M., Innos K., Kawakami N., Shibuya K., Jacobsen K.H., Jakovljevic M.B., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jayatilleke A.U., Jee S.H., Prabhakaran D., Jiang Y., Jimenez-Corona A., Jonas J.B., Kabir Z., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., and Kesavachandran C.N.
- Abstract
Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9.3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17.2 bi
- Published
- 2016
7. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- Author
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Karema C.K., Kajungu D.K., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., Kesavachandran C.N., She J., Kan H., Kandel A., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Kaul A., Kazi D.S., Keiyoro P.N., Lyons R.A., Kengne A.P., Matzopoulos R., Wiysonge C.S., Stein D.J., Mayosi B.M., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khoja T.A.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Skogen J.C., Savic M., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kuate B., Kuchenbecker R.S., Kucuk B., Kuipers E.J., Lallukka T., Shiri R., Meretoja T.J., Latif A.A., Lavados P.M., Lawrynowicz A.E.B., Leasher J.L., Leung R., Li Y., Lipshultz S.E., Wilkinson J.D., Simard E.P., Liu Y., Phillips M.R., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Rai D., Lunevicius R., Magdy H., Mahdavi M., Malta D.C., Marcenes W., Martinez-Raga J., Mason-Jones A.J., McKee M., Murthy G.V.S., Meaney P.A., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mhimbira F.A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Monasta L., Montico M., Ronfani L., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Westerman R., Murdoch M.E., Nachega J.B., Tran B.X., Naheed A., Naldi L., Nangia V., Ngalesoni F.N., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie P.M., Nolla J.M., Norman R.E., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I., Oladimeji O., Sartorius B., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Schutte A.E., Oyekale A.S., Pa M., Park E., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Pereira D.M., Pesudovs K., Pillay J.D., Plass D., Polinder S., Prasad N.M., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju M., Ranganathan K., Refaat A.H., Ribeiro A.L., Ricci S., Rojas-Rueda D., Sackey B.B., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sawhney M., Schneider I.J.C., Silva D.A.S., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Sharma R., Shigematsu M., Shin M., Yoon S., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silverberg J.I., Yano Y., Singh P.K., Soreide K., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stathopoulou V., Stein M.B., Stovner L.J., Stranges S., Stroumpoulis K., Sunguya B.F., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tanne D., Tavakkoli M., Taye B., Tuzcu E.M., Thakur J., Thomson A.J., Thurston G.D., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Truelsen T., Tsala Z., Tsilimbaris M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Uthman O.A., van Gool C.H., van Os J., Vasankari T., Vasconcelos A.M.N., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vlassov V.V., Wallin M.T., Weichenthal S., Williams H.C., Woldeyohannes S.M., Xu G., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E., Zeeb H., Zuhlke L.J., Brown J., Singh A., Thrift A.G., Wang L., Kassebaum N.J., Arora M., Barber R.M., Carter A., Casey D.C., Charlson F.J., Coates M.M., Coggeshall M., Cornaby L., Dandona L., Dicker D.J., Erskine H.E., Ferrari A.J., Fitzmaurice C., Foreman K., Forouzanfar M.H., Fullman N., Goldberg E.M., Graetz N., Haagsma J.A., Hay S.I., Johnson C.O., Kemmer L., Khalil I.A., Kinfu Y., Kutz M.J., Kyu H.H., Leung J., Lim S.S., Lozano R., Mikesell J., Mokdad A.H., Mooney M.D., Naghavi M., Nguyen G., Nsoesie E., Pigott D.M., Pinho C., Rankin Z., Reinig N., Sandar L., Smith A., Sorensen R.J.D., Stanaway J., Steiner C., Teeple S., Thomas B.A., Troeger C., VanderZanden A., Wagner J.A., Wanga V., Whiteford H.A., Zhou M., Zoeckler L., Achoki T., Afshin A., Alexander L.T., Allen C., Anderson G.M., Bell B., Bienhoff K., Biryukov S., Blore J.D., Estep K., Friedman J., Frostad J., Godwin W.W., Liu P.Y., Masiye F., Millear A., Mirarefin M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Mumford J.E., Ng M., Reitsma M.B., Reynolds A., Roth G.A., Sur P.J., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Lopez A.D., Murray C.J.L., Ellenbogen R.G., Mock C.N., Anderson B.O., Futran N.D., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., deVeber G.A., Abajobir A.A., Knibbs L.D., Lalloo R., Alam N.K.M., Gouda H.N., Guo Y., McGrath J.J., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Bisanzio D., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Jha V., Rahimi K., Duan L., Jin Y., Ye P., Liang X., Mensah G.A., Salomon J.A., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Barnighausen T., Campos-Nonato I.R., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Wagner G.R., Fitchett J.R.A., Abate K.H., Ahmed M.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abraham B., Abubakar I., Banerjee A., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Ackerman I.N., Buchbinder R., Gabbe B., Lloyd B.K., Adebiyi A.O., Adedeji I.A., Adsuar J.C., Afanvi K.A., Agardh E.E., Badawi A., Popova S., Agarwal A., Agarwal S.K., Roy A., Sagar R., Satpathy M., Tandon N., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Norrving B., Ahmadieh H., Yaseri M., Katibeh M., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Azzopardi P., Borschmann R., Colquhoun S.M., Patton G.C., Weintraub R.G., Meretoja A., Szoeke C.E.I., Taylor H.R., Wijeratne T., Driscoll T.R., Leigh J., Kemp A.H., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Terkawi A.S., Alegretti M.A., Aleman A.V., Cavalleri F., Colistro V., Alemu Z.A., Tegegne T.K., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Rabiee R.H.S., Carrero J.J., Fereshtehnejad S.M., Kivipelto M., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Sindi S., Alsharif U., Alvarez E., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Melaku Y.A., Ciobanu L.G., Tessema G.A., Amberbir A., Amegah A.K., Ameh E.A., Amini H., Furst T., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Zonies D., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Arsic V.S., Barac A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Asghar R.J., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Gankpe F.G., Awasthi A., Ayala B.P., Bacha U., Balakrishnan K., Barker-Collo S.L., Mohammed S., Barregard L., Petzold M., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Del L.C., Bayou T.A., Betsu B.D., Hailu G.B., Tekle D.Y., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Huang J.J., Benjet C., Gutierrez R.A., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D., Bernabe E., Hay R.J., Roba H.S., Beyene A.S., Hassen T.A., Mesfi Y.M., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Piel F.B., Steiner T.J., Bhatt S., Majeed A., Soljak M., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Bin A.A., Bjertness E., Bourne R.R.A., Brainin M., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Brugha T.S., Buckle G.C., Butt Z.A., Calabria B., Lucas R.M., Boufous S., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Mitchell P.B., Campuzano J.C., Gomez-Dantes H., Heredia-Pi I.B., Jauregui A., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Servan-Mori E.E., Carabin H., Carapetis J.R., Cardenas R., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J., Chiang P.P., Chibalabala M., Chibueze C.E., Mori R., Chisumpa V.H., Choi J.J., Choudhury L., Christensen H., Colomar M., Crump J.A., Derrett S., Poulton R.G., Giussani G., Cortinovis M., Perico N., Remuzzi G., Dargan P.I., das Neves J., Pedro J.M., Santos J.V., Davey G., Davis A.C., Newton J.N., Steel N., De Leo D., Des Jarlais D.C., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Zodpey S., Doyle K.E., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Ram U., Yadav A.K., Duncan B.B., Kieling C., Schmidt M.I., Ebrahimi H., Esteghamati A., Farzadfar F., Hafezi-Nejad N., Kasaeian A., Parsaeian M., Pishgar F., Sheikhbahaei S., Fahimi S., Malekzadeh R., Roshandel G., Sepanlou S.G., Hassanvand M.S., Heydarpour P., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Elyazar I., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshrati B., Farid T.A., Khan A.R., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Feigin V.L., Te B.J., Fernandes J.G., Fernandes J.C., Fischer F., Foigt N., Fowkes F.G.R., Franklin R.C., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Geleijnse J.M., Jibat T., Gibney K.B., Gillum R.F., Mehari A., Ginawi I.A., Hailu A.D., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Giroud M., Gishu M.D., Tura A.K., Gona P., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Kissoon N., Kopec J.A., Pourmalek F., Goto A., Inoue M., Gugnani H., Gupta R., Gupta V., Knudsen A.K., Norheim O.F., Halasa Y.A., Undurraga E.A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hedayati M.T., Hoek H.W., Skirbekk V., Hoff D.J., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Huang H., Iburg K.M., Idrisov B.T., Kwan G.F., Innos K., Kawakami N., Shibuya K., Jacobsen K.H., Jayatilleke A.U., Jiang G., Jiang Y., Jimenez-Corona A., Jonas J.B., Kabir Z., Karema C.K., Kajungu D.K., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., Kesavachandran C.N., She J., Kan H., Kandel A., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Kaul A., Kazi D.S., Keiyoro P.N., Lyons R.A., Kengne A.P., Matzopoulos R., Wiysonge C.S., Stein D.J., Mayosi B.M., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khoja T.A.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Skogen J.C., Savic M., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kuate B., Kuchenbecker R.S., Kucuk B., Kuipers E.J., Lallukka T., Shiri R., Meretoja T.J., Latif A.A., Lavados P.M., Lawrynowicz A.E.B., Leasher J.L., Leung R., Li Y., Lipshultz S.E., Wilkinson J.D., Simard E.P., Liu Y., Phillips M.R., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Rai D., Lunevicius R., Magdy H., Mahdavi M., Malta D.C., Marcenes W., Martinez-Raga J., Mason-Jones A.J., McKee M., Murthy G.V.S., Meaney P.A., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mhimbira F.A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Monasta L., Montico M., Ronfani L., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Westerman R., Murdoch M.E., Nachega J.B., Tran B.X., Naheed A., Naldi L., Nangia V., Ngalesoni F.N., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie P.M., Nolla J.M., Norman R.E., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I., Oladimeji O., Sartorius B., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Schutte A.E., Oyekale A.S., Pa M., Park E., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Pereira D.M., Pesudovs K., Pillay J.D., Plass D., Polinder S., Prasad N.M., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju M., Ranganathan K., Refaat A.H., Ribeiro A.L., Ricci S., Rojas-Rueda D., Sackey B.B., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sawhney M., Schneider I.J.C., Silva D.A.S., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Sharma R., Shigematsu M., Shin M., Yoon S., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silverberg J.I., Yano Y., Singh P.K., Soreide K., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stathopoulou V., Stein M.B., Stovner L.J., Stranges S., Stroumpoulis K., Sunguya B.F., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tanne D., Tavakkoli M., Taye B., Tuzcu E.M., Thakur J., Thomson A.J., Thurston G.D., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Truelsen T., Tsala Z., Tsilimbaris M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Uthman O.A., van Gool C.H., van Os J., Vasankari T., Vasconcelos A.M.N., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vlassov V.V., Wallin M.T., Weichenthal S., Williams H.C., Woldeyohannes S.M., Xu G., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E., Zeeb H., Zuhlke L.J., Brown J., Singh A., Thrift A.G., Wang L., Kassebaum N.J., Arora M., Barber R.M., Carter A., Casey D.C., Charlson F.J., Coates M.M., Coggeshall M., Cornaby L., Dandona L., Dicker D.J., Erskine H.E., Ferrari A.J., Fitzmaurice C., Foreman K., Forouzanfar M.H., Fullman N., Goldberg E.M., Graetz N., Haagsma J.A., Hay S.I., Johnson C.O., Kemmer L., Khalil I.A., Kinfu Y., Kutz M.J., Kyu H.H., Leung J., Lim S.S., Lozano R., Mikesell J., Mokdad A.H., Mooney M.D., Naghavi M., Nguyen G., Nsoesie E., Pigott D.M., Pinho C., Rankin Z., Reinig N., Sandar L., Smith A., Sorensen R.J.D., Stanaway J., Steiner C., Teeple S., Thomas B.A., Troeger C., VanderZanden A., Wagner J.A., Wanga V., Whiteford H.A., Zhou M., Zoeckler L., Achoki T., Afshin A., Alexander L.T., Allen C., Anderson G.M., Bell B., Bienhoff K., Biryukov S., Blore J.D., Estep K., Friedman J., Frostad J., Godwin W.W., Liu P.Y., Masiye F., Millear A., Mirarefin M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Mumford J.E., Ng M., Reitsma M.B., Reynolds A., Roth G.A., Sur P.J., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Lopez A.D., Murray C.J.L., Ellenbogen R.G., Mock C.N., Anderson B.O., Futran N.D., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., deVeber G.A., Abajobir A.A., Knibbs L.D., Lalloo R., Alam N.K.M., Gouda H.N., Guo Y., McGrath J.J., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Bisanzio D., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Jha V., Rahimi K., Duan L., Jin Y., Ye P., Liang X., Mensah G.A., Salomon J.A., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Barnighausen T., Campos-Nonato I.R., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Wagner G.R., Fitchett J.R.A., Abate K.H., Ahmed M.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abraham B., Abubakar I., Banerjee A., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Ackerman I.N., Buchbinder R., Gabbe B., Lloyd B.K., Adebiyi A.O., Adedeji I.A., Adsuar J.C., Afanvi K.A., Agardh E.E., Badawi A., Popova S., Agarwal A., Agarwal S.K., Roy A., Sagar R., Satpathy M., Tandon N., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Norrving B., Ahmadieh H., Yaseri M., Katibeh M., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Azzopardi P., Borschmann R., Colquhoun S.M., Patton G.C., Weintraub R.G., Meretoja A., Szoeke C.E.I., Taylor H.R., Wijeratne T., Driscoll T.R., Leigh J., Kemp A.H., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Terkawi A.S., Alegretti M.A., Aleman A.V., Cavalleri F., Colistro V., Alemu Z.A., Tegegne T.K., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Rabiee R.H.S., Carrero J.J., Fereshtehnejad S.M., Kivipelto M., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Sindi S., Alsharif U., Alvarez E., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Melaku Y.A., Ciobanu L.G., Tessema G.A., Amberbir A., Amegah A.K., Ameh E.A., Amini H., Furst T., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Zonies D., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Arsic V.S., Barac A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Asghar R.J., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Gankpe F.G., Awasthi A., Ayala B.P., Bacha U., Balakrishnan K., Barker-Collo S.L., Mohammed S., Barregard L., Petzold M., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Del L.C., Bayou T.A., Betsu B.D., Hailu G.B., Tekle D.Y., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Huang J.J., Benjet C., Gutierrez R.A., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D., Bernabe E., Hay R.J., Roba H.S., Beyene A.S., Hassen T.A., Mesfi Y.M., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Piel F.B., Steiner T.J., Bhatt S., Majeed A., Soljak M., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Bin A.A., Bjertness E., Bourne R.R.A., Brainin M., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Brugha T.S., Buckle G.C., Butt Z.A., Calabria B., Lucas R.M., Boufous S., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Mitchell P.B., Campuzano J.C., Gomez-Dantes H., Heredia-Pi I.B., Jauregui A., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Servan-Mori E.E., Carabin H., Carapetis J.R., Cardenas R., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J., Chiang P.P., Chibalabala M., Chibueze C.E., Mori R., Chisumpa V.H., Choi J.J., Choudhury L., Christensen H., Colomar M., Crump J.A., Derrett S., Poulton R.G., Giussani G., Cortinovis M., Perico N., Remuzzi G., Dargan P.I., das Neves J., Pedro J.M., Santos J.V., Davey G., Davis A.C., Newton J.N., Steel N., De Leo D., Des Jarlais D.C., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Zodpey S., Doyle K.E., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Ram U., Yadav A.K., Duncan B.B., Kieling C., Schmidt M.I., Ebrahimi H., Esteghamati A., Farzadfar F., Hafezi-Nejad N., Kasaeian A., Parsaeian M., Pishgar F., Sheikhbahaei S., Fahimi S., Malekzadeh R., Roshandel G., Sepanlou S.G., Hassanvand M.S., Heydarpour P., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Elyazar I., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshrati B., Farid T.A., Khan A.R., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Feigin V.L., Te B.J., Fernandes J.G., Fernandes J.C., Fischer F., Foigt N., Fowkes F.G.R., Franklin R.C., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Geleijnse J.M., Jibat T., Gibney K.B., Gillum R.F., Mehari A., Ginawi I.A., Hailu A.D., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Giroud M., Gishu M.D., Tura A.K., Gona P., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Kissoon N., Kopec J.A., Pourmalek F., Goto A., Inoue M., Gugnani H., Gupta R., Gupta V., Knudsen A.K., Norheim O.F., Halasa Y.A., Undurraga E.A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hedayati M.T., Hoek H.W., Skirbekk V., Hoff D.J., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Huang H., Iburg K.M., Idrisov B.T., Kwan G.F., Innos K., Kawakami N., Shibuya K., Jacobsen K.H., Jayatilleke A.U., Jiang G., Jiang Y., Jimenez-Corona A., Jonas J.B., and Kabir Z.
- Abstract
Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates d
- Published
- 2016
8. Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- Author
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Alhabib S., Lipshultz S.E., Wilkinson J.D., Simard E.P., Liu Y., Phillips M.R., Xiao Q., Lo L., Logroscino G., Lunevicius R., Ma S., Machado V.M., Mackay M.T., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Mandisarisa J., Mangalam S., Marcenes W., Meaney P.A., Margolis D.J., Silberberg D.H., Martin G.R., Martinez-Raga J., Marzan M.B., Mason-Jones A.J., McMahon B.J., Mehndiratta M.M., Woldeyohannes S.M., Tedla B.A., Zeleke B.M., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Meretoja T.J., Lallukka T., Mhimbira F.A., Micha R., Mozaff D., Shi P., Singh G.M., Miller T.R., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Mohan V., Mola G.L.D., Monasta L., Montico M., Ronfani L., Morawska L., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Westerman R., Musa K.I., Paternina Caicedo A.J., Seedat S., Nagel G., Rothenbacher D., Naidoo K.S., Sartorius B., Naldi L., Remuzzi G., Nangia V., Nash D., Nejjari C., Neupane S., Newton C.R., Ngalesoni F.N., Ngirabega J.D., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie Pete P.M., Nomura M., Nyakarahuka L., Ogbo F.A., Ohkubo T., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Ozdemir R., Mahesh P.A., Pandian J.D., Pant P.R., Papachristou C., Park E., Park J., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Stokic Pejin L., Pereira D.M., Cortinovis M., Giussani G., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Pillay J.D., Plass D., Platts-Mills J.A., Polinder S., Pope C.A., Qorbani M., Rafay A., Rana S.M., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju M., Rakovac I., Ranabhat C.L., Rangaswamy T., Ribeiro A.L., Ricci S., Roca A., Rojas-Rueda D., Roy N.K., Ruhago G.M., Sunguya B.F., Saha S., Sahathevan R., Saleh M.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sanchez-Riera L., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sawhney M., Schaub M.P., Schneider I.J.C., Silva D.A.S., Schutte A.E., Shaddick G., Shaheen A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Sharma R., Shetty B.P., Shin M., Shiri R., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silveira D.G.A., Silverberg J.I., Yano Y., Singh O.P., Singh P.K., Singh V., Soneji S., Soreide K., Soriano J.B., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stathopoulou V., Stein M.B., Stranges S., Stroumpoulis K., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabb K.M., Takala J.S., Talongwa R.T., Taye B., Ten Have M., Tuzcu E.M., Thomson A.J., Thurston G.D., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Towbin J.A., Traebert J., Truelsen T., Trujillo U., Uchendu U.S., Ukwaja K.N., Uthman O.A., Van Dingenen R., van Donkelaar A., Vasankari T., Vasconcelos A.M.N., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Violante F.S., Vlassov V.V., Wallin M.T., Weichenthal S., White R.A., Williams H.C., Wong J.Q., Woolf A.D., Xavier D., Xu G., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yonga G., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E., Zannad F., Zavala D.E., Zeeb H., Zonies D., Zuhlke L.J., Brown A., Brown J., Singh A., Thrift A.G., Wang L., Wang H., Naghavi M., Allen C., Barber R.M., Carter A., Casey D.C., Charlson F.J., Chen A.Z., Coates M.M., Coggeshall M., Dandona L., Dicker D.J., Erskine H.E., Fitzmaurice C., Foreman K., Forouzanfar M.H., Fraser M.S., Fullman N., Goldberg E.M., Graetz N., Haagsma J.A., Hay S.I., Huynh C., Johnson C.O., Kassebaum N.J., Kulikoff X.R., Kutz M., Kyu H.H., Larson H.J., Leung J., Lim S.S., Lind M., Lozano R., Marquez N., Mikesell J., Mokdad A.H., Mooney M.D., Nguyen G., Nsoesie E., Pigott D.M., Pinho C., Roth G.A., Sandar L., Silpakit N., Sligar A., Sorensen R.J.D., Stanaway J., Steiner C., Teeple S., Thomas B.A., Troeger C., VanderZanden A., Vollset S.E., Wanga V., Whiteford H.A., Wolock T., Zoeckler L., Achoki T., Afshin A., Alexander L.T., Anderson G.M., Bell B., Biryukov S., Blore J.D., Cercy K., Chew A., Cohen A.J., Daoud F., Dossou E., Estep K., Flaxman A., Friedman J., Frostad J., Godwin W.W., Hancock J., Kemmer L., Khalil I.A., Liu P.Y., Masiye F., Millear A., Mirarefin M., Misganaw A., Moradi-Lakeh M., Morgan K., Ng M., Pain A., Quame-Amaglo J., Rao P., Reitsma M.B., Shackelford K.A., Sur P., Wagner J.A., Vos T., Lopez A.D., Murray C.J.L., Ellenbogen R.G., Mock C.N., Quistberg D.A., Anderson B.O., Blosser C.D., Futran N.D., Heckbert S.R., Jensen P.N., Montine T.J., Tirschwell D.L., Watkins D.A., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., Alam N.K.M., Knibbs L.D., Lalloo R., Gouda H.N., McGrath J.J., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Cooper C., Darby S.C., Deribew A., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Jha V., Rahimi K., Kinfu Y., Faghmous I.D.A., Langan S.M., McKee M., Murthy G.V.S., Pearce N., Roberts B., Campos-Nonato I.R., Campuzano J.C., Gomez-Dantes H., Heredia-Pi I.B., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Montero P., Rios Blancas M.J., Servan-Mori E.E., Villalpando S., Duan L., Liu S., Ye P., Liang X., Yu S., Mensah G.A., Salomon J.A., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Ajala O.N., Barnighausen T., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Wagner G.R., James P., Osman M., Shrime M.G., Fitchett J.R.A., Knudsen A.K., Ellingsen C.L., Krog N.H., Savic M., Hailu A.D., Norheim O.F., Abate K.H., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abera S.F., Alasfoor D., Melaku Y.A., Tesfay F.H., Abyu G.Y., Aregay A.F., Betsu B.D., Gebru A.A., Hailu G.B., Yalew A.Z., Yebyo H.G., Abreu D.M.X., Franca E.B., Abu-Raddad L.J., Adelekan A.L., Akinyemi R.O., Ojelabi F.A., Ademi Z., Furst T., Azzopardi P., Cowie B.C., Gibney K.B., MacLachlan J.H., Meretoja A., Alam K., Colquhoun S.M., Patton G.C., Weintraub R.G., Szoeke C.E.I., Vijayakumar L., Bohensky M.A., Taylor H.R., Wijeratne T., Adou A.K., Adsuar J.C., Afanvi K.A., Agardh E.E., Rehm J., Badawi A., Lindsay M.P., Popova S., Agarwal A., Agrawal A., Hotez P.J., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Norrving B., Akanda A.S., Akinyemiju T.F., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Al Lami F.H., Alabed S., Al-Aly Z., Driscoll T.R., Leigh J., Kemp A.H., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Terkawi A.S., Aldridge R.W., Banerjee A., Tillmann T., Alegretti M.A., Aleman A.V., Cavalleri F., Colistro V., Alemu Z.A., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Carrero J.J., Fereshtehnejad S., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Alvarez Martin E., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Ciobanu L.G., Tessema G.A., Amegah A.K., Kudom A.A., Ameh E.A., Amini H., Karema C.K., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., Faraon E.J.A., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Arsic Arsenijevic V.S., Barac A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Asghar R.J., Atique S., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Gankpe F.G., Awasthi A., Bacha U., Bahit M.C., Balakrishnan K., Barker-Collo S.L., Mohammed S., Barregard L., Petzold M., Barrero L.H., Basu A., Basu S., Bayou Y.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Deribe K., Belay H.A., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Jibat T., Manamo W.A.A., Tefera W.M., Yirsaw B.D., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Biroscak B.J., Bello A.K., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D.A., Bernabe E., Beyene A.S., Gishu M.D., Bhala N., Bhalla A., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Bin Abdulhak A.A., Bjertness E., Htet A.S., Bose D., Bourne R.R.A., Brainin M., Brayne C.E.G., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Schottker B., Brewer J.D., Brugha T.S., Buckle G.C., Gosselin R.A., Butt Z.A., Calabria B., Lal A., Lucas R.M., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Carapetis J.R., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Catala-Lopez F., Cerda J., Chen W., Chiang P.P., Chibalabala M., Chibueze C.E., Mori R., Chimed-Ochir O., Jiang Y., Takahashi K., Chisumpa V.H., Mapoma C.C., Choi J.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Colomar M., Cooper L.T., Crump J.A., Poulton R.G., Damsere-Derry J., Danawi H., Refaat A.H., Dargan P.I., das Neves J., Massano J., Pedro J.M., Davey G., Davis A.C., Greaves F., Newton J.N., Davitoiu D.V., de Castro E.F., de Jager P., De D., Dellavalle R.P., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Ganguly P., Lal D.K., Zodpey S., Diaz-Torne C., dos Santos K.P.B., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Duncan B.B., Kieling C., Schmidt M.I., Elyazar I., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshrati B., Esteghamati A., Hafezi-Nejad N., Fahimi S., Malekzadeh R., Roshandel G., Sepanlou S.G., Farzadfar F., Kasaeian A., Parsaeian M., Heydarpour P., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Sheikhbahaei S., Yaseri M., Farid T.A., Khan A.R., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Feigin V.L., Te Ao B.J., Fernandes J.G., Fernandes J.C., Fischer F., Foigt N., Shiue I., Fowkes F.G.R., Franklin R.C., Piel F.B., Majeed A., Gall S.L., Gambashidze K., Gamkrelidze A., Kereselidze M., Shakh-Nazarova M., Iyer V.J., Gebre T., Geleijnse J.M., Gessner B.D., Ghoshal A.G., Gillum R.F., Mehari A., Gilmour S., Inoue M., Kawakami N., Shibuya K., Giroud M., Glaser E., Halasa Y.A., Shepard D.S., Undurraga E.A., Gona P., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Kissoon N., Kopec J.A., Murthy S., Pourmalek F., Goto A., Gugnani H.C., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Norman P.E., Hao Y., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hilderink H.B., Hoek H.W., Tura A.K., Hogg R.S., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htike M.M.T., Hu G., Huang C., Huang H., Huiart L., Husseini A., Huybrechts I., Huynh G., Iburg K.M., Innos K., Jacobs T.A., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Katibeh M., Rajavi Z., Jakovljevic M.B., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jayatilleke A.U., Prabhakaran D., Jiang G., Jimenez-Corona A., Jonas J.B., Joshi T.K., Kabir Z., Kamal R., Kesavachandran C.N., She J., Shen Z., Zhang H., Kan H., Kant S., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Karletsos D., Karthikeyan G., Naik N., Paul V.K., Roy A., Sagar R., Satpathy M., Tandon N., Kaul A., Kayibanda J.F., Keiyoro P.N., Lyons R.A., Parry C.D., Kengne A.P., Matzopoulos R., Wiysonge C.S., Stein D.J., Mayosi B.M., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khera S., Tavakkoli M., Khoja T.A.M., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Kissela B.M., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., McGarvey S.T., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kuipers E.J., Kulkarni V.S., Kwan G.F., Rao S.R., Lam H., Lam J.O., Nachega J.B., Tran B.X., Lansingh V.C., Laryea D.O., Latif A.A., Lawrynowicz A.E.B., Levi M., Li Y., Alhabib S., Lipshultz S.E., Wilkinson J.D., Simard E.P., Liu Y., Phillips M.R., Xiao Q., Lo L., Logroscino G., Lunevicius R., Ma S., Machado V.M., Mackay M.T., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Mandisarisa J., Mangalam S., Marcenes W., Meaney P.A., Margolis D.J., Silberberg D.H., Martin G.R., Martinez-Raga J., Marzan M.B., Mason-Jones A.J., McMahon B.J., Mehndiratta M.M., Woldeyohannes S.M., Tedla B.A., Zeleke B.M., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Meretoja T.J., Lallukka T., Mhimbira F.A., Micha R., Mozaff D., Shi P., Singh G.M., Miller T.R., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Mohan V., Mola G.L.D., Monasta L., Montico M., Ronfani L., Morawska L., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Westerman R., Musa K.I., Paternina Caicedo A.J., Seedat S., Nagel G., Rothenbacher D., Naidoo K.S., Sartorius B., Naldi L., Remuzzi G., Nangia V., Nash D., Nejjari C., Neupane S., Newton C.R., Ngalesoni F.N., Ngirabega J.D., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie Pete P.M., Nomura M., Nyakarahuka L., Ogbo F.A., Ohkubo T., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Ozdemir R., Mahesh P.A., Pandian J.D., Pant P.R., Papachristou C., Park E., Park J., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Stokic Pejin L., Pereira D.M., Cortinovis M., Giussani G., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Pillay J.D., Plass D., Platts-Mills J.A., Polinder S., Pope C.A., Qorbani M., Rafay A., Rana S.M., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju M., Rakovac I., Ranabhat C.L., Rangaswamy T., Ribeiro A.L., Ricci S., Roca A., Rojas-Rueda D., Roy N.K., Ruhago G.M., Sunguya B.F., Saha S., Sahathevan R., Saleh M.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sanchez-Riera L., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sawhney M., Schaub M.P., Schneider I.J.C., Silva D.A.S., Schutte A.E., Shaddick G., Shaheen A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Sharma R., Shetty B.P., Shin M., Shiri R., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silveira D.G.A., Silverberg J.I., Yano Y., Singh O.P., Singh P.K., Singh V., Soneji S., Soreide K., Soriano J.B., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stathopoulou V., Stein M.B., Stranges S., Stroumpoulis K., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabb K.M., Takala J.S., Talongwa R.T., Taye B., Ten Have M., Tuzcu E.M., Thomson A.J., Thurston G.D., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Towbin J.A., Traebert J., Truelsen T., Trujillo U., Uchendu U.S., Ukwaja K.N., Uthman O.A., Van Dingenen R., van Donkelaar A., Vasankari T., Vasconcelos A.M.N., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Violante F.S., Vlassov V.V., Wallin M.T., Weichenthal S., White R.A., Williams H.C., Wong J.Q., Woolf A.D., Xavier D., Xu G., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yonga G., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E., Zannad F., Zavala D.E., Zeeb H., Zonies D., Zuhlke L.J., Brown A., Brown J., Singh A., Thrift A.G., Wang L., Wang H., Naghavi M., Allen C., Barber R.M., Carter A., Casey D.C., Charlson F.J., Chen A.Z., Coates M.M., Coggeshall M., Dandona L., Dicker D.J., Erskine H.E., Fitzmaurice C., Foreman K., Forouzanfar M.H., Fraser M.S., Fullman N., Goldberg E.M., Graetz N., Haagsma J.A., Hay S.I., Huynh C., Johnson C.O., Kassebaum N.J., Kulikoff X.R., Kutz M., Kyu H.H., Larson H.J., Leung J., Lim S.S., Lind M., Lozano R., Marquez N., Mikesell J., Mokdad A.H., Mooney M.D., Nguyen G., Nsoesie E., Pigott D.M., Pinho C., Roth G.A., Sandar L., Silpakit N., Sligar A., Sorensen R.J.D., Stanaway J., Steiner C., Teeple S., Thomas B.A., Troeger C., VanderZanden A., Vollset S.E., Wanga V., Whiteford H.A., Wolock T., Zoeckler L., Achoki T., Afshin A., Alexander L.T., Anderson G.M., Bell B., Biryukov S., Blore J.D., Cercy K., Chew A., Cohen A.J., Daoud F., Dossou E., Estep K., Flaxman A., Friedman J., Frostad J., Godwin W.W., Hancock J., Kemmer L., Khalil I.A., Liu P.Y., Masiye F., Millear A., Mirarefin M., Misganaw A., Moradi-Lakeh M., Morgan K., Ng M., Pain A., Quame-Amaglo J., Rao P., Reitsma M.B., Shackelford K.A., Sur P., Wagner J.A., Vos T., Lopez A.D., Murray C.J.L., Ellenbogen R.G., Mock C.N., Quistberg D.A., Anderson B.O., Blosser C.D., Futran N.D., Heckbert S.R., Jensen P.N., Montine T.J., Tirschwell D.L., Watkins D.A., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., Alam N.K.M., Knibbs L.D., Lalloo R., Gouda H.N., McGrath J.J., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Cooper C., Darby S.C., Deribew A., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Jha V., Rahimi K., Kinfu Y., Faghmous I.D.A., Langan S.M., McKee M., Murthy G.V.S., Pearce N., Roberts B., Campos-Nonato I.R., Campuzano J.C., Gomez-Dantes H., Heredia-Pi I.B., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Montero P., Rios Blancas M.J., Servan-Mori E.E., Villalpando S., Duan L., Liu S., Ye P., Liang X., Yu S., Mensah G.A., Salomon J.A., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Ajala O.N., Barnighausen T., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Wagner G.R., James P., Osman M., Shrime M.G., Fitchett J.R.A., Knudsen A.K., Ellingsen C.L., Krog N.H., Savic M., Hailu A.D., Norheim O.F., Abate K.H., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abera S.F., Alasfoor D., Melaku Y.A., Tesfay F.H., Abyu G.Y., Aregay A.F., Betsu B.D., Gebru A.A., Hailu G.B., Yalew A.Z., Yebyo H.G., Abreu D.M.X., Franca E.B., Abu-Raddad L.J., Adelekan A.L., Akinyemi R.O., Ojelabi F.A., Ademi Z., Furst T., Azzopardi P., Cowie B.C., Gibney K.B., MacLachlan J.H., Meretoja A., Alam K., Colquhoun S.M., Patton G.C., Weintraub R.G., Szoeke C.E.I., Vijayakumar L., Bohensky M.A., Taylor H.R., Wijeratne T., Adou A.K., Adsuar J.C., Afanvi K.A., Agardh E.E., Rehm J., Badawi A., Lindsay M.P., Popova S., Agarwal A., Agrawal A., Hotez P.J., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Norrving B., Akanda A.S., Akinyemiju T.F., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Al Lami F.H., Alabed S., Al-Aly Z., Driscoll T.R., Leigh J., Kemp A.H., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Terkawi A.S., Aldridge R.W., Banerjee A., Tillmann T., Alegretti M.A., Aleman A.V., Cavalleri F., Colistro V., Alemu Z.A., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Carrero J.J., Fereshtehnejad S., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Alvarez Martin E., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Ciobanu L.G., Tessema G.A., Amegah A.K., Kudom A.A., Ameh E.A., Amini H., Karema C.K., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., Faraon E.J.A., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Arsic Arsenijevic V.S., Barac A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Asghar R.J., Atique S., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Gankpe F.G., Awasthi A., Bacha U., Bahit M.C., Balakrishnan K., Barker-Collo S.L., Mohammed S., Barregard L., Petzold M., Barrero L.H., Basu A., Basu S., Bayou Y.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Deribe K., Belay H.A., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Jibat T., Manamo W.A.A., Tefera W.M., Yirsaw B.D., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Biroscak B.J., Bello A.K., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D.A., Bernabe E., Beyene A.S., Gishu M.D., Bhala N., Bhalla A., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Bin Abdulhak A.A., Bjertness E., Htet A.S., Bose D., Bourne R.R.A., Brainin M., Brayne C.E.G., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Schottker B., Brewer J.D., Brugha T.S., Buckle G.C., Gosselin R.A., Butt Z.A., Calabria B., Lal A., Lucas R.M., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Carapetis J.R., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Catala-Lopez F., Cerda J., Chen W., Chiang P.P., Chibalabala M., Chibueze C.E., Mori R., Chimed-Ochir O., Jiang Y., Takahashi K., Chisumpa V.H., Mapoma C.C., Choi J.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Colomar M., Cooper L.T., Crump J.A., Poulton R.G., Damsere-Derry J., Danawi H., Refaat A.H., Dargan P.I., das Neves J., Massano J., Pedro J.M., Davey G., Davis A.C., Greaves F., Newton J.N., Davitoiu D.V., de Castro E.F., de Jager P., De D., Dellavalle R.P., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Ganguly P., Lal D.K., Zodpey S., Diaz-Torne C., dos Santos K.P.B., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Duncan B.B., Kieling C., Schmidt M.I., Elyazar I., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshrati B., Esteghamati A., Hafezi-Nejad N., Fahimi S., Malekzadeh R., Roshandel G., Sepanlou S.G., Farzadfar F., Kasaeian A., Parsaeian M., Heydarpour P., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Sheikhbahaei S., Yaseri M., Farid T.A., Khan A.R., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Feigin V.L., Te Ao B.J., Fernandes J.G., Fernandes J.C., Fischer F., Foigt N., Shiue I., Fowkes F.G.R., Franklin R.C., Piel F.B., Majeed A., Gall S.L., Gambashidze K., Gamkrelidze A., Kereselidze M., Shakh-Nazarova M., Iyer V.J., Gebre T., Geleijnse J.M., Gessner B.D., Ghoshal A.G., Gillum R.F., Mehari A., Gilmour S., Inoue M., Kawakami N., Shibuya K., Giroud M., Glaser E., Halasa Y.A., Shepard D.S., Undurraga E.A., Gona P., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Kissoon N., Kopec J.A., Murthy S., Pourmalek F., Goto A., Gugnani H.C., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Norman P.E., Hao Y., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hilderink H.B., Hoek H.W., Tura A.K., Hogg R.S., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htike M.M.T., Hu G., Huang C., Huang H., Huiart L., Husseini A., Huybrechts I., Huynh G., Iburg K.M., Innos K., Jacobs T.A., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Katibeh M., Rajavi Z., Jakovljevic M.B., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jayatilleke A.U., Prabhakaran D., Jiang G., Jimenez-Corona A., Jonas J.B., Joshi T.K., Kabir Z., Kamal R., Kesavachandran C.N., She J., Shen Z., Zhang H., Kan H., Kant S., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Karletsos D., Karthikeyan G., Naik N., Paul V.K., Roy A., Sagar R., Satpathy M., Tandon N., Kaul A., Kayibanda J.F., Keiyoro P.N., Lyons R.A., Parry C.D., Kengne A.P., Matzopoulos R., Wiysonge C.S., Stein D.J., Mayosi B.M., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khera S., Tavakkoli M., Khoja T.A.M., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Kissela B.M., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., McGarvey S.T., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kuipers E.J., Kulkarni V.S., Kwan G.F., Rao S.R., Lam H., Lam J.O., Nachega J.B., Tran B.X., Lansingh V.C., Laryea D.O., Latif A.A., Lawrynowicz A.E.B., Levi M., and Li Y.
- Abstract
Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2
- Published
- 2016
9. Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- Author
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Nguhiu P., Shigematsu M., Shin M., Yoon S., Shiri R., Shishani K., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silverberg J.I., Yano Y., Singh O.P., Singh P.K., Soreide K., Soriano J.B., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stahl H., Stathopoulou V., Steckling N., Stranges S., Strong M., Sunguya B.F., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabb K.M., Talongwa R.T., Tarawneh M.R., Tavakkoli M., Taye B., Tuzcu E.M., Thakur J., Thomson A.J., Thurston G.D., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tsala Dimbuene Z., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Uthman O.A., Vasankari T., Vasconcelos A.M.N., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vlassov V.V., Volkow P., Wallin M.T., Weichenthal S., Woolf A.D., Wubshet M., Xu G., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E., Zambrana-Torrelio C., Zapata T., Zonies D., Singh A., Thrift A.G., Wang L., Lim S.S., Allen K., Dandona L., Forouzanfar M.H., Fullman N., Goldberg E.M., Hay S.I., Holmberg M., Kutz M.J., Larson H.J., Lopez A.D., McNellan C.R., Mokdad A.H., Mooney M.D., Naghavi M., Olsen H.E., Pigott D.M., Vos T., Wang H., Achoki T., Afshin A., Allen C., Anderson G.M., Barber R., Bienhoff K.A., Blore J., Brauer M., Carter A., Casey D., Charlson F.J., Chen A.Z., Coates M.M., Coggeshall M., Cohen A.J., Deshpande A., Erskine H.E., Ferrari A.J., Fitzmaurice C., Foreman K., Fraser M., Friedman J., Frostad J., Godwin W., Graetz N., Griswold M., Haagsma J.A., Haakenstad A., Kassebaum N.J., Kemmer L., Kulikoff X.R., Kyu H.H., Leung J., Lind M., Liu P.Y., Masiye F., Mirarefin M., Misganaw A., Moradi-Lakeh M., Nguyen G., Pinho C., Rao P.C., Reitsma M.B., Roth G.A., Santomauro D.F., Shackelford K., Silpakit N., Sligar A., Sorensen R.J.D., Stanaway J.D., Steiner C., Sur P., Vollset S.E., Wanga V., Whiteford H.A., Zhao Y., Zhou M., Murray C.J.L., Kotsakis G.A., Mock C.N., Anderson B.O., Watkins D.A., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., deVeber G.A., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Bisanzio D., Cooper C., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Jha V., Weiss D.J., Kinfu Y., Patel V., Langan S.M., McKee M., Murthy G.V.S., Roberts B., Stockl H., Duan L., Jin Y., Li Y., Liu S., Ye P., Liang X., Azzopardi P., Cowie B.C., Meretoja A., Patton G.C., Alam K., Weintraub R.G., Sawyer S.M., Szoeke C.E.I., Taylor H.R., Lozano R., Barrientos-Gutierrez T., Campos-Nonato I.R., Campuzano J.C., Heredia-Pi I.B., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Rios Blancas M.J., Servan-Mori E.E., Shamah Levy T., Salomon J.A., Binagwaho A., Barnighausen T., Cahill L.E., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Wagner G.R., Thorne-Lyman A.L., James P., Fitchett J.R.A., Abajobir A.A., Knibbs L.D., Veerman J.L., Lalloo R., Gouda H.N., Guo Y., McGrath J.J., Abate K.H., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abraham B., Abubakar I., Aldridge R.W., Banerjee A., Benzian H., Tillmann T., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Melaku Y.A., Abyu G.Y., Bayou T.A., Betsu B.D., Gebru A.A., Hailu G.B., Tekle D.Y., Yalew A.Z., Adebiyi A.O., Owolabi M.O., Akinyemi R.O., Adedeji I.A., Afanvi K.A., Micha R., Shi P., Singh G.M., Badawi A., Agarwal A., Agrawal A., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Norrving B., Ahmadieh H., Yaseri M., Jahanmehr N., Ahmed K.Y., Alemu Z.A., Tegegne T.K., Akanda A.S., Akinyemiju T.F., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Al-Aly Z., Driscoll T.R., Leigh J., Mekonnen A.B., Neal B., Alam U., Alasfoor D., AlBuhairan F.S., Alkhateeb M.A., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Terkawi A.S., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Rabiee R.H.S., Roy N., Kivipelto M., Carrero J.J., Fereshtehnejad S.M., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Sindi S., Al-Raddadi R., Alvarez E., Alvis-Guzman N., Paternina Caicedo A.J., Amare A.T., Ciobanu L.G., Tessema G.A., Amberbir A., Amegah A.K., Amini H., Furst T., Karema C.K., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Asghar R.J., Atique S., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Bacha U., Balakrishnan K., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., Mohammed S., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Del L.C., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bejot Y., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Bello A.K., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D., Bernabe E., Wolfe I., Bernal O.A., Roba H.S., Beyene A.S., Mesfin Y.M., Bhala N., Bhatt S., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Soneji S., Bjertness E., Htet A.S., Bourne R.R.A., Brainin M., Krueger H., Gotay C.C., Kissoon N., Murthy S., Pourmalek F., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Broday D.M., Brugha T.S., Buchbinder R., Gabbe B., Butt Z.A., van Donkelaar A., Martin R.V., Carabin H., Cardenas R., Caso V., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Catala-Lopez F., Cavalleri F., Cecilio P., das Neves J., Massano J., Pedro J.M., Chang H., Chang J., Che X., Chiang P.P., Chibalabala M., Chisumpa V.H., Mapoma C.C., Choi J.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Cirillo M., Piel F.B., Rodriguez A., Cooke G.S., Majeed A., Cooper L.T., Crump J.A., Derrett S., Poulton R.G., Damtew S.A., Workie S.B., Deribe K., Tefera W., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Temam Shifa G., Dargan P.I., Davis A.C., Newton J.N., Steel N., Davletov K., de Castro E.F., De Leo D., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Mitchell P.B., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dhillon P.K., Lal D.K., Zodpey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dorsey E.R., Doyle K.E., Kemp A.H., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Ram U., Verma R.K., Yadav A.K., Duncan B.B., Kieling C., Schmidt M.I., Ebrahimi H., Esteghamati A., Farzadfar F., Hafezi-Nejad N., Kasaeian A., Parsaeian M., Pishgar F., Sheikhbahaei S., Fahimi S., Malekzadeh R., Roshandel G., Sepanlou S.G., Hassanvand M.S., Khosravi A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Soshnikov S., Eshrati B., Farid T.A., Khan A.R., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Feigin V.L., Felicio M.M., Fernandes J.C., Fischer F., Foigt N., Shiue I., Fowkes F.G.R., Franca E.B., Franklin R.C., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebre T., Gessner B.D., Gillum R.F., Mehari A., Ginawi I.A., Giroud M., Gishu M.D., Tura A.K., Gona P., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goto A., Inoue M., Greenwell K.F., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Gyawali B., Iburg K.M., Halasa Y.A., Undurraga E.A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Hankey G.J., Haro J.M., Hoek H.W., Skirbekk V., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hoy D.G., Hu G., Huang H., Idrisov B.T., Kwan G.F., Kawakami N., Shibuya K., Islami F., Jacobs T.A., Jacobsen K.H., Jakovljevic M.B., Jansen H.A.F., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jee S.H., Jiang Y., Jibat T., Jonas J.B., Kabir Z., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., Kesavachandran C.N., She J., Kan H., Kandel A., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Karunapema P., Kaul A., Kayibanda J.F., Keiyoro P.N., Matzopoulos R., Parry C.D., Kengne A.P., Wiysonge C.S., Stein D.J., Mayosi B.M., Shey M., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khan G., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khoja T.A.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C., Kim D., Kim S., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Varakin Y.Y., Kuate Defo B., Kuchenbecker R.S., Kuipers E.J., Kulkarni V.S., Lal A., Lucas R.M., Lam H., Lan Q., Laryea D.O., Latif A.A., Leasher J.L., Leinsalu M., Leung R., Levi M., Linn S., Lipshultz S.E., Wilkinson J.D., Simard E.P., Liu Y., Phillips M.R., Lloyd B.K., Lo L., Logroscino G., Lunevicius R., Magdy M., Magis-Rodriguez C., Mahdavi M., Malta D.C., Meaney P.A., Margolis D.J., Martinez-Raga J., Mason-Jones A.J., Tedla B.A., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mensink G.B.M., Meretoja T.J., Mhimbira F.A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mohammadi A., Monasta L., Montico M., Ronfani L., Monis J.D., Morawska L., Sun J., Mori R., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Westerman R., Murdoch M.E., Murimira B., Murray J., Musa K.I., Nachega J.B., Seedat S., Tran B.X., Nagel G., Rothenbacher D., Naidoo K.S., Oladimeji O., Sartorius B., Zegeye E.A., Naldi L., Remuzzi G., Nangia V., Nejjari C., Newton C.R., Ngalesoni F.N., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie P.M., Nolte S., Osborne R.H., Nomura M., Norheim O.F., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Mahesh P.A., Park E., Park H., Patel T., Patil S.T., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Paudel D., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Petzold M., Pillay J.D., Polinder S., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju M., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Ranganathan K., Refaat A.H., Ribeiro A.L., Rojas-Rueda D., Roy A., Sagar R., Satpathy M., Sackey B.B., Saleh M.M., Sanabria J.R., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Savic M., Sawhney M., Schmidhuber J., Schneider I.J.C., Silva D.A.S., Schutte A.E., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., Sharma R., Nguhiu P., Shigematsu M., Shin M., Yoon S., Shiri R., Shishani K., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silverberg J.I., Yano Y., Singh O.P., Singh P.K., Soreide K., Soriano J.B., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stahl H., Stathopoulou V., Steckling N., Stranges S., Strong M., Sunguya B.F., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabb K.M., Talongwa R.T., Tarawneh M.R., Tavakkoli M., Taye B., Tuzcu E.M., Thakur J., Thomson A.J., Thurston G.D., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tsala Dimbuene Z., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Uthman O.A., Vasankari T., Vasconcelos A.M.N., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vlassov V.V., Volkow P., Wallin M.T., Weichenthal S., Woolf A.D., Wubshet M., Xu G., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E., Zambrana-Torrelio C., Zapata T., Zonies D., Singh A., Thrift A.G., Wang L., Lim S.S., Allen K., Dandona L., Forouzanfar M.H., Fullman N., Goldberg E.M., Hay S.I., Holmberg M., Kutz M.J., Larson H.J., Lopez A.D., McNellan C.R., Mokdad A.H., Mooney M.D., Naghavi M., Olsen H.E., Pigott D.M., Vos T., Wang H., Achoki T., Afshin A., Allen C., Anderson G.M., Barber R., Bienhoff K.A., Blore J., Brauer M., Carter A., Casey D., Charlson F.J., Chen A.Z., Coates M.M., Coggeshall M., Cohen A.J., Deshpande A., Erskine H.E., Ferrari A.J., Fitzmaurice C., Foreman K., Fraser M., Friedman J., Frostad J., Godwin W., Graetz N., Griswold M., Haagsma J.A., Haakenstad A., Kassebaum N.J., Kemmer L., Kulikoff X.R., Kyu H.H., Leung J., Lind M., Liu P.Y., Masiye F., Mirarefin M., Misganaw A., Moradi-Lakeh M., Nguyen G., Pinho C., Rao P.C., Reitsma M.B., Roth G.A., Santomauro D.F., Shackelford K., Silpakit N., Sligar A., Sorensen R.J.D., Stanaway J.D., Steiner C., Sur P., Vollset S.E., Wanga V., Whiteford H.A., Zhao Y., Zhou M., Murray C.J.L., Kotsakis G.A., Mock C.N., Anderson B.O., Watkins D.A., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., deVeber G.A., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Bisanzio D., Cooper C., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Jha V., Weiss D.J., Kinfu Y., Patel V., Langan S.M., McKee M., Murthy G.V.S., Roberts B., Stockl H., Duan L., Jin Y., Li Y., Liu S., Ye P., Liang X., Azzopardi P., Cowie B.C., Meretoja A., Patton G.C., Alam K., Weintraub R.G., Sawyer S.M., Szoeke C.E.I., Taylor H.R., Lozano R., Barrientos-Gutierrez T., Campos-Nonato I.R., Campuzano J.C., Heredia-Pi I.B., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Rios Blancas M.J., Servan-Mori E.E., Shamah Levy T., Salomon J.A., Binagwaho A., Barnighausen T., Cahill L.E., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Wagner G.R., Thorne-Lyman A.L., James P., Fitchett J.R.A., Abajobir A.A., Knibbs L.D., Veerman J.L., Lalloo R., Gouda H.N., Guo Y., McGrath J.J., Abate K.H., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abraham B., Abubakar I., Aldridge R.W., Banerjee A., Benzian H., Tillmann T., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Melaku Y.A., Abyu G.Y., Bayou T.A., Betsu B.D., Gebru A.A., Hailu G.B., Tekle D.Y., Yalew A.Z., Adebiyi A.O., Owolabi M.O., Akinyemi R.O., Adedeji I.A., Afanvi K.A., Micha R., Shi P., Singh G.M., Badawi A., Agarwal A., Agrawal A., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Norrving B., Ahmadieh H., Yaseri M., Jahanmehr N., Ahmed K.Y., Alemu Z.A., Tegegne T.K., Akanda A.S., Akinyemiju T.F., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Al-Aly Z., Driscoll T.R., Leigh J., Mekonnen A.B., Neal B., 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- Abstract
Background In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). Methods We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. Findings In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59.3 (95% uncertainty interval 56.8-61.8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85.5 (84.2-86.5) in Iceland to 20.4 (15.4-24.9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0.88) and the MDG index (r2=0.92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0.79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7.9 (IQR 5.0-10.4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10.0 [6.7-13.1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5.5 [2.1-8.9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for
- Published
- 2016
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