Search

Rationale & objectiveDiabetic patients with declining kidney function are at heightened risk for hypoglycemia. We sought to determine whether hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations in the interval before dialysis therapy initiation are associated with post-end-stage renal disease (ESRD) mortality among incident patients with ESRD with diabetes.Study designObservational cohort study.Setting & participantsUS veterans from the national Veterans Affairs database with diabetes and chronic kidney disease transitioning to dialysis therapy from October 2007 to September 2011.ExposureHypoglycemia-related hospitalizations during the pre-ESRD period and antidiabetic medication regimens.OutcomeThe outcome of post-ESRD all-cause mortality was evaluated relative to pre-ESRD hypoglycemia. The outcome of pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalization was evaluated relative to antidiabetic medication regimens.Analytic approachWe examined whether the occurrence and frequency of pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations are associated with post-ESRD mortality using Cox regression models adjusted for case-mix covariates. In a subcohort of patients prescribed 0 to 2 oral antidiabetic drugs and/or insulin, we examined the 12 most commonly prescribed antidiabetic medication regimens and risk for pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalization using logistic regression models adjusted for case-mix covariates.ResultsAmong 30,156 patients who met eligibility criteria, the occurrence of pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalization(s) was associated with higher post-ESRD mortality risk: adjusted HR (aHR), 1.25; 95% CI, 1.17-1.34 (reference group: no hypoglycemia hospitalization). Increasing frequency of hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations was independently associated with incrementally higher mortality risk: aHRs of 1.21 (95% CI, 1.12-1.30), 1.47 (95% CI, 1.19-1.82), and 2.07 (95% CI, 1.46-2.95) for 1, 2, and 3 or more hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations, respectively (reference group: no hypoglycemia hospitalization). Compared with patients who were prescribed neither oral antidiabetic drugs nor insulin, medication regimens that included sulfonylureas and/or insulin were associated with higher risk for hypoglycemia.LimitationsResidual confounding cannot be excluded.ConclusionsAmong incident patients with ESRD with diabetes, a dose-dependent relationship between frequency of pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations and post-ESRD mortality was observed. Further study of diabetic management strategies that prevent hypoglycemia as patients with chronic kidney disease transition to ESRD are warranted.

ObjectiveTo develop and validate a risk prediction model that would help individualize treatment and improve the shared decision-making process between clinicians and patients.Patients and methodsWe developed a risk prediction tool for mortality during the first year of dialysis based on pre-end-stage renal disease characteristics in a cohort of 35,878 US veterans with incident end-stage renal disease who transitioned to dialysis treatment between October 1, 2007, and March 31, 2014 and then externally validated this tool among 4284 patients in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) health care system who transitioned to dialysis treatment between January 1, 2007, and September 30, 2015.ResultsTo ensure model goodness of fit, 2 separate models were selected for patients whose last estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) before dialysis initiation was less than 15 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or 15 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or higher. Model discrimination in the internal validation cohort of veterans resulted in C statistics of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.70-0.72) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.65-0.67) among patients with eGFR lower than 15 mL/min per 1.73 m2 and 15 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or higher, respectively. In the KPSC external validation cohort, the developed risk score exhibited C statistics of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.79) in men and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.71-0.76) in women with eGFR lower than 15 mL/min per 1.73 m2 and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.67-0.74) in men and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.72) in women with eGFR of 15 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or higher.ConclusionA new risk prediction tool for mortality during the first year after transition to dialysis (available at www.DialysisScore.com) was developed in the large national Veterans Affairs cohort and validated with good performance in the racially, ethnically, and gender diverse KPSC cohort. This risk prediction tool will help identify high-risk populations and guide management strategies at the transition to dialysis.

Introduction:Abrupt declines in kidney function often occur in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease and may exacerbate the need to initiate dialysis treatment. It is unclear how frequently such events occur in patients transitioning to chronic dialysis therapy, and what outcomes they are associated with. Methods:We examined a national cohort of 23,349 US veterans with incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and with available pre-ESRD estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to identify abrupt declines in kidney function, defined as an unexpected >50% decrease in eGFR at the time of chronic dialysis transition. Associations with all-cause mortality and with renal recovery were examined in Cox proportional hazard and competing risk regression models. Results:A total of 4804 (21%) patients experienced an abrupt decline in kidney function at dialysis transition. Renal recovery occurred in 586 (12.2%) and 297 (1.6%) patients with and without an abrupt decline, respectively (adjusted subhazard ratio: 4.42; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.72-5.27; P < 0.001). In the first 6 months after dialysis transition 1178 patients (24.5%) with abrupt decline died (annualized mortality rate 574/1000 patient-years), compared with 2354 deaths (12.7%) in patients without abrupt decline (274 deaths/1000 patient-years). An abrupt decline was associated with 45% higher mortality after multivariable adjustments (hazard ratio: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.33-1.57). Conclusion:Abrupt declines in kidney function are common in patients transitioning to chronic dialysis, and are associated with higher mortality. Patients with abrupt declines also experience a higher rate of renal recovery; hence, careful attention to residual kidney function is warranted in these patients.

Evidence-informed decision making in clinical care and policy in nephrology is undermined by trials that selectively report a large number of heterogeneous outcomes, many of which are not patient centered. The Standardized Outcomes in Nephrology-Hemodialysis (SONG-HD) Initiative convened an international consensus workshop on November 7, 2015, to discuss the identification and implementation of a potential core outcome set for all trials in hemodialysis. The purpose of this article is to report qualitative analyses of the workshop discussions, describing the key aspects to consider when establishing core outcomes in trials involving patients on hemodialysis therapy. Key stakeholders including 8 patients/caregivers and 47 health professionals (nephrologists, policymakers, industry, and researchers) attended the workshop. Attendees suggested that identifying core outcomes required equitable stakeholder engagement to ensure relevance across patient populations, flexibility to consider evolving priorities over time, deconstruction of language and meaning for conceptual consistency and clarity, understanding of potential overlap and associations between outcomes, and an assessment of applicability to the range of interventions in hemodialysis. For implementation, they proposed that core outcomes must have simple, inexpensive, and validated outcome measures that could be used in clinical care (quality indicators) and trials (including pragmatic trials) and endorsement by regulatory agencies. Integrating these recommendations may foster acceptance and optimize the uptake and translation of core outcomes in hemodialysis, leading to more informative research, for better treatment and improved patient outcomes.

While juvenile white sharks (JWS) can display regional endothermy, the need to maintain internal temperatures within an energetically favorable range likely drives thermoregulatory movements to maximize growth and foraging efficiency. Many JWS from the northeastern Pacific population aggregate seasonally in nearshore nursery habitats throughout the Southern California Bight and historic data show that inter-seasonal movement patterns may be heavily dependent on ambient water temperature. However, the degree to which micro-scale (e.g., ~10 m²) water temperature heterogeneity influences JWS three-dimensional movement within nearshore aggregation sites is unknown. High-resolution temperature and passive acoustic-telemetry geo-positional data were used to quantify how temperature and vertical thermal stratification influenced JWS movement using several modeling approaches. JWS selected for water temperatures between 16 - 22°C and depths shallower than 2 m. Sharks occupied deeper waters during dawn and dusk periods, and their distance from the seafloor and spatial orientation of their depth distribution was significantly related to the thermal structure of the water column across the monitored area. Tagged sharks remained above a 16°C thermal threshold and altered their horizontal and vertical distributions accordingly. While high-resolution movement and environmental data provide improved predictability of microscale habitat use and distribution, other variables such as prey distribution, behavior, and competition would further improve habitat use models for this highly mobile species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The epidemiology of maintenance dialysis patients and heart failure patients has striking similarities. Both groups have a high prevalence of comorbid conditions, a high hospitalization rate, a low self-reported quality of life, and an excessively high mortality risk, mostly because of cardiovascular causes. Observational studies in both dialysis and heart failure patients have indicated the lack of a significant association between the traditional cardiovascular risk factors and mortality, or the existence of a paradoxic or reverse association, in that obesity, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertension appear to confer survival advantages. The time discrepancy between the 2 sets of risk factors, that is, overnutrition (long-term killer) versus undernutrition (short-term killer) may explain the overwhelming role of malnutrition, inflammation, and cachexia in causing the reverse epidemiology, which may exist in more than 20 million Americans. We have reviewed the opposing views about the concept of reverse epidemiology in dialysis and heart failure patients, the recent Die Deutsche Diabetes Dialyze study findings, and the possible role of racial disparities. Contradictory findings on hyperhomocysteinemia in dialysis patients are reviewed in greater details as a possible example of publication bias. Additional findings related to intravenous iron and serum ferritin, calcium, and leptin levels in dialysis patients may enhance our understanding of the new paradigm. The association between obesity and increased death risk in kidney transplanted patients is reviewed as an example of the reversal of reverse epidemiology. Studying the epidemiology of dialysis patients as the archetypical population with such paradoxic associations may lead to the development of population-specific guidelines and treatment strategies beyond the current Framingham cardiovascular risk factor paradigm.

In the general population, a high body mass index (BMI; in kg/m(2)) is associated with increased cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. However, the effect of overweight (BMI: 25-30) or obesity (BMI: >30) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) undergoing maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) is paradoxically in the opposite direction; ie, a high BMI is associated with improved survival. Although this "reverse epidemiology" of obesity or dialysis-risk-paradox is relatively consistent in MHD patients, studies in CKD patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis have yielded mixed results. Growing confusion has developed among physicians, some of whom are no longer confident about whether to treat obesity in CKD patients. A similar reverse epidemiology of obesity has been described in geriatric populations and in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Possible causes of the reverse epidemiology of obesity include a more stable hemodynamic status, alterations in circulating cytokines, unique neurohormonal constellations, endotoxin-lipoprotein interaction, reverse causation, survival bias, time discrepancies among competitive risk factors, and malnutrition-inflammation complex syndrome. Reverse epidemiology may have significant clinical implications in the management of dialysis, CHF, and geriatric patients, ie, populations with extraordinarily high mortality. Exploring the causes and consequences of the reverse epidemiology of obesity in dialysis patients can enhance our insights into similar paradoxes observed for other conventional risk factors, such as blood pressure and serum cholesterol and homocysteine concentrations, and in other populations such as those with CHF, advanced age, cancer, or AIDS. Weight-gaining interventional studies in dialysis patients are urgently needed to ascertain whether they can improve survival and quality of life.

Although exceptional examples of adaptation are frequently celebrated, some outcomes of natural selection seem far from perfect. For example, many hoverflies (Diptera: Syrphidae) are harmless (Batesian (1)) mimics of stinging Hymenoptera (2). However, although some hoverfly species are considered excellent mimics, other species bear only a superficial resemblance to their models (3) and it is unclear why this is so. To evaluate hypotheses that have been put forward to explain interspecific variation in the mimetic fidelity of Palearctic Syrphidae we use a comparative approach. We show that the most plausible explanation is that predators impose less selection for mimetic fidelity on smaller hoverfly species because they are less profitable prey items. In particular, our findings, in combination with previous results, allow us to reject several key hypotheses for imperfect mimicry: first, human ratings of mimetic fidelity are positively correlated with both morphometric measures and avian rankings, indicating that variation in mimetic fidelity is not simply an illusion based on human perception (4); second, no species of syrphid maps out in multidimensional space as being intermediate in appearance between several different hymenopteran model species, as the multimodel hypothesis (5) requires; and third, we find no evidence for a negative relationship between mimetic fidelity and abundance, which calls into question the kin-selection (6) hypothesis. By contrast, a strong positive relationship between mimetic fidelity and body size supports the relaxed-selection hypothesis (7,8), suggesting that reduced predation pressure on less profitable prey species limits the selection for mimetic perfection., Much of evolutionary theory relating to mimicry has been based on the assumption that the fidelity of mimicry in any given system is extremely high (reviewed in ref. 9). Of [...]