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The initial phase dynamics of an epidemic without containment measures is commonly well modelled using exponential growth models. However, in the presence of containment measures, the exponential model becomes less appropriate. Under the implementation of an isolation measure for detected infectives, we propose to model epidemic dynamics by fitting a flexible growth model curve to reported positive cases, and to infer the overall epidemic dynamics by introducing information on the detection/testing effort and recovery and death rates. The resulting modelling approach is close to the Susceptible-Infectious-Quarantined-Recovered model framework. We focused on predicting the peaks (time and size) in positive cases, active cases and new infections. We applied the approach to data from the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. Fits on limited data before the observed peaks illustrate the ability of the flexible growth model to approach the estimates from the whole data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Question: Which are the structural attributes and the history of old-growth Fagus forest in Mediterranean montane environments? What are the processes underlying their structural organization? Are these forests stable in time and how does spatial scale affect our assessment of stability? How do these forests compare to other temperate deciduous old-growth forests? Location: 1600-1850 m a.s.l., Fagus forest near the tree line, central Apennines, Italy. Methods: An old-growth Fagus forest was studied following historical, structural and dendroecological approaches. History of forest cover changes was analysed using aerial photographs taken in 1945, 1954, 1985 and 1994. The structural analysis was carried out in the primary old-growth portion of the forest using 18 circular and two rectangular plots. Dendroecological analyses were conducted on 32 dominant or co-dominant trees. Results: These primary old-growth Fagus remnants consist of four patches that escaped logging after World War II. Both living and dead tree components are within the range of structural attributes recognized for old-growth in temperate biomes. Dendroecological analyses revealed the roles of disturbance, competition and climate in structuring the forest. We also identified a persistent Fagus community in which gap-phase regeneration has led to a mono-specific multi-aged stand at spatial scales of a few hectares, characterized by a rotatedsigmoid diameter distribution. Conclusion: Even at the relatively small spatial scale of this study, high-elevation Apennine Fagus forests can maintain structural characteristics consistent with those of old-growth temperate forests. These results are important for managing old growth forests in the Mediterranean montane biome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]