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Future flood risk assessments typically focus on changing hazard conditions as a result of climate change, where flood exposure is assumed to remain static or develop according to exogenous scenarios. However, this study presents a method to project future riverine flood risk in Europe by simulating population growth in floodplains, where households' settlement location decisions endogenously depend on environmental and institutional factors, including amenities associated with river proximity, riverine flood risk, and insurance against this risk. Our results show that population growth in European floodplains and, consequently, rising riverine flood risk are considerably higher when the dis-amenity caused by flood risk is offset by insurance. This outcome is particularly evident in countries where flood risk is covered collectively and notably less where premiums reflect the risk of individual households. This study finds that flood insurance policy design affects economic development in floodplains and, consequently, flood risk in Europe. Therefore, the authors advocate for flood insurance design to be integrated in climate change adaptation policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weighting of impacts is frequently applied to enable the prioritization of life cycle assessment (LCA) results for the support of decision making. Most Distance-to-Target (DtT) weighting approaches consider policy targets, whereas potential is seen in the weighting of environmental impacts on a more scientific basis. This study aims at the comparison of science-based (SB) to policy-based (PoB) DtT weighting approaches as well as the application in a comparative case study for the domestic footprint of the European Union. The developed approaches integrated SB targets from ten environmental impact categories into the DtT weighting method of the Ecological Scarcity Method in an effort to derive SB eco-factors. In addition to SB eco-factors based on existing weighting factors for Europe from the literature, weighting factors for the European Union were developed. The application of the eco-factors in the case study showed that the SB approach led to three times higher absolute weighting results in contrast to PoB results. SB weighting was dominated by the impact category climate change with the strictest weighting factors in all approaches considered and a share of 87–92%. For the remaining impact categories, common PoB weighting factors were generally stricter. PoB results showed a more balanced distribution, with shares of 64% for climate change, 10% for photochemical ozone formation, 7% for acidification, and 7% for terrestrial eutrophication. Science-based targets can not replace conventional PoB weighting approaches but should be integrated into the weighting step to provide a more comprehensive view of the environmental performance of product systems. SB weighting results are an additional source of information on environmental sustainability regarding environmental carrying capacity that can broaden the basis for decision making. • Comparison of targets based on science and policy via distance-to-target weighting. • Development of weighting sets for comparative application to EU domestic footprint. • Science-based results are dominated by the impact category climate change. • Lower results in policy-based weighting due to less strict climate policy targets. • Analysis of EU policy regarding effectiveness to stay within carrying capacities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Spatial and socioeconomic predictors for climate change (CC) attitudes were examined. • Certain dimensions of CC attitudes are associated with regional population change. • All dimensions of CC attitudes show a strong educational gradient. • CC attitudes and efficacy are socioeconomically stratified and spatially determined. Climate change views have their socioeconomic foundations but also specific geographies. In merging these perspectives, this analysis uses ESS Round 8 data from 23 European countries to examine whether climate change scepticism and concern, pro-environmental personal norm and a willingness to engage in energy-saving behaviour exhibit, first, urban–rural and/or regional differences, and second, if these attitudes can be explained at individual level by socioeconomic position and wellbeing resources. We find that climate change scepticism and concern do exhibit urban–rural differences, where living in a country village is associated with greater climate scepticism and lower concern compared to living in a big city. Also, higher climate change concern and pro-environmental norms are associated with living in a region with constant population growth. These geographical differences are independent of individual-level socioeconomic attributes as well as one's political orientation. Additionally, the results show that both climate change attitudes and reporting energy-saving behaviour are strongly stratified by level of education and reveal that those in lower income deciles feel less pro-environmental norm but nonetheless report greater engagement with energy-saving behaviour. In sum, the results highlight that climate change mitigation is not a uniform project either spatially or within certain socioeconomic strata. Hence, our results suggest that socioeconomic disadvantage (belonging to the lowest education and income levels) and spatial marginalisation (living in more rural surroundings and declining regions) should be better acknowledged when reworking climate change and environmental policies in the EU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To quantify changes in air pollution over Europe at the 2050 horizon, we designed a comprehensive modelling system that captures the external factors considered to be most relevant, and that relies on up-to-date and consistent sets of air pollution and climate policy scenarios. Global and regional climate as well as global chemistry simulations are based on the recent representative concentration pathways (RCP) produced for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) whereas regional air quality modelling is based on the updated emissions scenarios produced in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment. We explored two diverse scenarios: a reference scenario where climate policies are absent and a mitigation scenario which limits global temperature rise to within 2 °C by the end of this century. This first assessment of projected air quality and climate at the regional scale based on CMIP5 (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate simulations is in line with the existing literature using CMIP3. The discrepancy between air quality simulations obtained with a climate model or with meteorological reanalyses is pointed out. Sensitivity simulations show that the main factor driving future air quality projections is air pollutant emissions, rather than climate change or intercontinental transport of pollution. Whereas the well documented "climate penalty" that weights upon ozone (increase of ozone pollution with global warming) over Europe is confirmed, other features appear less robust compared to the literature, such as the impact of climate on PM2.5. The quantitative disentangling of external factors shows that, while several published studies focused on the climate penalty bearing upon ozone, the contribution of the global ozone burden is somewhat overlooked in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although many of today's ecological, climatic and socio-economic problems seem unprecedented, similar events have occurred in the past. As such, historic periods of climatic and economic volatility can be used as a way of developing frameworks for analyzing today's predicament. Western Europe's “middle ages” (circa 11–14th century) may be one such case. By the 12th century, medieval Europe had shifted from the subsistence agrarian economy that emerged following the collapse of the Roman Empire to one where spatially dispersed trade in agricultural commodities helped support a complex society that devoted considerable resources to cultural works. This shift was facilitated by new institutional arrangements centred on monastic orders that provided access to both new agricultural and food processing technologies as well as trade routes. These institutional arrangements contributed to population growth and land clearing. All of these factors increased the wealth of society but also concentrated this wealth in a small number of communities that were dependent on an ever-increasing and exploited hinterland for resources. Ultimately, this created a tightly coupled continent-wide subsistence system that was vulnerable to the weather, economic and disease shocks of the 14th century when Europe's population declined by perhaps 50%. In exploring this history, the goal of this paper is to draw on a diverse theoretical body of literature (that includes resiliency theory, landscape ecology, political science and ecological economics) to develop a series of hypotheses about how large-scale complex civilizations can become vulnerable to climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We derive a global social welfare function that is consistent with the burden sharing in the Kyoto Protocol and in one proposal for a post-Kyoto treaty. The Kyoto Protocol favored the EU, while the EU post-Kyoto proposal puts more weight on the wellbeing of other OECD countries at the expense of EU residents. Ignoring income differences, the EU proposal for a post-Kyoto treaty favors developing countries. However, if income differences are taken into account, the EU proposal is not at all generous to developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) limits CO2 emissions from covered sectors, especially electricity (accounting for about 56%). At €44 billion per annum. the ETS is the largest emissions trading system ever, 40 times larger than US programmes. The article demonstrates that fixing the quantity rather than the price of carbon reduces the price elasticity of demand for gas appreciably, amplifying the market power of gas suppliers, and amplifying the impact of gas price increases on the electricity price. A rough estimate using British data suggests that this could increase the Lerner Index by 50%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]