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One of the most important environmental issues today is the water crisis and the ensuing security challenges. Of these, transboundary waters pose the most significant security challenges. Resolving these conflicts and agreements over transboundary waters has always faced a variety of challenges, making it difficult to reach a mutually agreed solution. One of the transboundary water conflicts that have been exacerbating in recent years is the conflict between Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkmenistan over the use of the Harirud river water resources. (e present paper aims to analyze, using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR), a game theory model, the conflict between the three countries regarding the utilization of the water resources of the border river, Harirud. To this purpose, first, the current state of the conflict was investigated. (en, each of the three countries’ possible options and preferences was defined according to the past and present state of the conflict as well as the possible states. By defining the permissible movements and priorities of each decision maker, the equilibrium of the conflict was obtained. Next, four scenarios were defined, the equilibria were extracted in each scenario, and the results were interpreted. (e implementation of the GMCR model algorithm regarding the Harirud water conflict between the three countries indicated that the current state is the most likely outcome of the conflict as none of the parties involved, given their preferences, and is motivated or able to change their strategy to help the conflict to a more favorable state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid climate change is impacting water resources in Afghanistan. The consequences are poorly known. Suitable mitigation and adaptation strategies have not been developed. Thus, this paper summarizes current status of knowledge in relation to Afghan water resources. More than 130 scientific articles, reports and data sources are synthesized to review the potential impacts of climate change on the cryosphere, streamflow, groundwater and hydrological extremes. The available information suggests that Afghanistan is currently witnessing significant increases in temperature, less so precipitation. There is evidence of shifts in the intra-annual distribution of streamflow, with reduced summer flows in non-glaciated basins and increased winter and spring streamflow. However, in the short-term there will be an increase in summer ice melt in glaciated basins, a "glacial subsidy", which sustains summer streamflow, despite reduced snow accumulation. The future prognosis for water resources is likely to be more serious when this glacier subsidy ends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses countries with transboundary water resources that are at risk for instability. Water security, a term we use in our work to refer to an individual's, community's or state's access to freshwater resources at the right time, quality, and quantity, is becoming of increasing concern due to rising populations, development, and climate change. Building upon the Basins at Risk project at Oregon State University, we used updated Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database geospatial physical, social, and hydrological data to assess the water-related stability of countries in transboundary freshwater basins. We selected five countries to conduct case studies by assessing three parameters: percentage of territory within a shared basin, number of shared basins, and/or dependency ratio of a country on water resources originating from outside its borders. Given the availability of data and to cover a wider geographic distribution, we selected Afghanistan, China, Iraq, Moldova, and Sudan as our case studies. We created a series of 30 maps at 2 scales to spatially analyze the population density, institutional capacity, and water withdrawals, in addition to assessing each country's water profile. We developed a resiliency tool to analyze these parameters and scored each country to determine whether a country is at risk for water-related instability. We found that while China has a high water-related resilience, Iraq has a low water-related resilience and Afghanistan, Moldova, and Sudan fall within a low to mid-low resilience range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growing increase in demand for water and the lack of balance between water supply and demand have led to conflicts among the downstream stakeholders of the international Hirmand River. This river is shared between Iran and Afghanistan and is located in the southeast of Iran, in the Sistan region. The Vardkhaneh is divided into two branches, Parian and Sistan, and it is the only main source of water in the Sistan region of Iran. The inner part of Hirmand catchment is considered bankrupt concerning its water resources, so there is a need to take the current status and resulting issues into account in order to resolve conflicts. In Hirmand catchment, four different games of bankruptcy theory, namely proportional (Pr), adjusted proportional (AP), constrained equal award (CEA), and constrained equal losses (CEL), were developed as optimization models based on genetic algorithms. For this purpose, the catchment was simulated with 26 scenarios using the WEAP 2022 version software for an average time period. The results of the bankruptcy game modeling showed that water could be effectively allocated to resolve conflicts among stakeholders. It is therefore recommended to use such a model to resolve fights and optimally allocate resources, even in bankrupt catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Afghanistan has been trying hard to gradually develop its largely underused water resources. The transboundary Kabul River basin (KRB) between Afghanistan and Pakistan contributes almost one quarter to the water resources generated nationwide. Currently, there is no cooperation mechanism pertaining to KRB, despite growing demand for irrigation and hydropower particularly on the Afghan side. This paper presents a state-of-the-art review on transboundary water issues between Afghanistan and Pakistan based on geographic, hydrographic, hydrologic, historic, institutional, and political aspects. The challenges and opportunities are carefully examined, and a path forward is presented. A persistent lack of trust between upstream Afghanistan and downstream Pakistan has hindered meaningful dialogue for cooperation. Both neighbors have high stakes in cooperation given that Afghanistan's water resources are almost 90% transboundary and Pakistan has high dependency for water resources. This study presents a cooperation framework emphasizing benefits-sharing as a principle going beyond water needs and rights. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kabul River Basin is one of the most significant river basins in Afghanistan from a socio-economic perspective. Since the country is located in an arid climate zone with drastically varying climatic behavior, an effective assessment of meteorological drought is very essential to managing the limited availability of water resources. For this endeavor, the outputs of three general circulation models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used against the baseline period of 1961–1980. Different bias correction methods were applied, and the results show that the delta change method, quantile mapping method, and empirical quantile mapping all performed better for the precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature datasets, respectively. The ERA5-Land datasets and WorldClim Version 2 are used to validate the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature datasets, respectively, to determine their dependability, and the results were found to be promising. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Deciles Index (DI), and New Drought Index (NDI) were used to assess the drought condition in the past and forecast for the future periods of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The spatial distribution of assessed drought indices was mapped using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method. Our results revealed that moderate to extreme droughts are consistent across the entire basin. This might be because the projected annual precipitation in the river basin shows a decline of 53–65% up to the end of this century (2100), and the average annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.8 °C, 3.5 °C, and 4.8 °C, respectively, for the three future periods of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Furthermore, the results show that the drought estimated by SPI and RDI for future climate scenarios is almost the same, whereas NDI estimates frequent drought events after the 2050s. However, for moderate drought, RDI, which includes the effects of evapotranspiration, was found to be far greater than SPI under both scenarios, and NDI considering temperature and precipitation also estimates a larger number of drought years, strengthening the possibility of its occurrence in the basin. A regional comparison of drought also indicates a decrease in precipitation in future periods, predominantly in high altitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efficient water allocation in a transboundary river basin is a complex issue in water resources management. This work develops a framework for the allocation of transboundary river water between the countries located in the river basin to evaluate the characteristics of allocation approaches. The allocation of river water is obtained based on initial-water conditions, cooperative, and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches. The initial-conditions water allocation approach assigns 34, 40, and 26% of the Harirud River flow to Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkmenistan, respectively. The game-theoretic cooperative approach assigns 36, 42, and 22% of the river flow to Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkmenistan, respectively. The non-cooperative game-theoretic approach establishes that the most stable water allocation was 42, 38, and 20% of the Harirud River flow for Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkmenistan, respectively. Human and agricultural water-stress criteria are used to evaluate the water allocations in the Harirud River basin. The criterion of human water stress has the largest influence in Iran, and the criterion of agricultural water stress has the smallest influence in Afghanistan. This work's results indicate the initial-conditions water allocation approach favors Turkmenistan, whereas the cooperative and the non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches favors Iran and Afghanistan, respectively. The results show that the priorities of each country governs water allocation, and cooperation is shown to be necessary to achieve sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Notwithstanding ambiguities, long-term economic resurgence in Afghanistan amidst water insecurity exacerbated by climate change decisively requires a water protection strategy that will complement a multitude of agroindustrial and socioeconomic activities in an environmentally sustainable and climate resilient manner. In this paper, we begin with a perspective on institutions, legislation, and key issues in the water sector of Afghanistan. We then embark on linking the integrated water resources management (IWRM) and strategic environmental assessment (SEA) approaches as a novel framework for strategic water management and subsequently propose a strategy for post-conflict water protection based on the coalesced IWRM and SEA. Context relevant good practices worldwide are presented to provide empirical evidence for this approach whereas perceived opportunities and vulnerabilities in the Afghan context are discussed. Examination of post-conflict water sector initiatives in Afghanistan reveals the critical role of foreign assistance in both water infrastructure rehabilitation and modernization of the institutional aspect of water management. The introduction of IWRM as the basis for a progressive water sector strategy has been seen as a major milestone which is detrimentally matched by substantial deficiency in national capacity for implementation. Concurrently, the role of extra-national actors in relevant policy interventions has been considered catalytic despite criticisms of proposed regulations as being anachronistic to field realities. Therefore the view is maintained to practicable policies by accelerating policy learning in the country's water and environment sectors to encourage homegrown water strategy innovations. Demonstratively, mainstreaming IWRM-SEA coalescence will bridge institutional gaps for better feedback between local and national water stakeholders, providing a venue for improved delivery of water services to sustain post-conflict socioeconomic recovery and promote environmental stewardship. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

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Land and water access insecurity, land grabbing, and unstable common property status of critical local resources continue to drive conflicts, rural landlessness and environmental problems throughout many areas of Afghanistan where formal government is weak or entirely absent. In contrast to traditional development strategies that favor infrastructure enhancement and backed by enforced national policies, we offer Afghan-specific strategies based on resource conservation and increased capacity of local resource management institutions that can function when and where central government cannot be relied upon to assume or maintain a supportive role. Resource conservation and building local capacity are key components of existing and proposed future efforts to increase stability. However, support for these efforts, whether government or community-based, has been limited in portions of rural Afghanistan, apparently due to low stakeholder confidence in retaining access to improved land, water and other critical resources when international forces withdraw. Powerful individuals and groups, operating outside local community structures, are increasingly impacting land use practices. We suggest a thorough assessment of the present and likely future social environment, including awareness of likely conflicts resulting from agricultural or natural resource improvements, before any tangible actions are taken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]