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There are basically three stories about the globalisation-welfare state nexus. The first story argues that globalisation is the cause of the chronic crisis of the welfare state (globalization theory). The second maintains that whatever the cause of the welfare state crisis, globalisation is not part of it (globalization sceptics). The third story holds that globalisation, far from causing the welfare state’s troubles, is a consequence of these troubles and part of their solution (revisionism). The paper reviews each of these stories and traces their intellectual origins., Österreichische Zeitschrift für Geschichtswissenschaften, Bd. 20 Nr. 1 (2009): Fortschritt

Does globalization undermine the fiscal basis of the welfare state? The conventional wisdom believes so: open borders cause tax competition, which in turn leads to a race to the bottom in capital taxation. However, the data show that revenues from capital taxation are fairly stable in OECD countries. Some observers conclude from this that globalization does not pose much of a challenge to the welfare state. This conclusion is unwarranted because it overlooks that tax competition was not the only challenge facing welfare states during the 1980s and 1990s. There was also slow growth, rampant unemployment, and high levels of precommitted spending. These problems exerted countervailing pressures that prevented a race to the bottom in taxation. Yet, this does not mean that national autonomy has not been diminished. The welfare state is trapped in between external pressures to reduce the tax burden on capital and internal pressures to maintain revenue levels and relieve the tax burden on labor. The conventional wisdom and its critics 2 Did tax competition change the structure of taxation? 3 Would total taxation be higher without tax competition? 4 Would capital tax revenues be higher without tax competition? 4.1 Corporate taxes 4.2 Taxes on financial income 5 Would taxes on labor and consumption be lower without tax competition? 5.1 Labor taxes 5.2 Consumption taxes 5.3 Green taxes

Untergräbt die Globalisierung die Finanzbasis des Wohlfahrtsstaates? In der öffentlichen Debatte klingt es oft so: Offene Grenzen provozieren eine steuerliche Unterbietungskonkurrenz und erodieren dadurch die Kapitalbesteuerung; die Gesamtsteuereinnahmen sinken. Für diese Befürchtung gibt es aber keine klaren empirischen Belege. Die Einnahmen aus der Kapitalbesteuerung sind stabil. Einige Politikwissenschaftler behaupten deshalb, die Handlungsfähigkeit des Wohlfahrtsstaates bleibe - trotz Globalisierung - erhalten. In diesem Artikel zeige ich, daß beide Positionen an derselben Schwäche leiden: Sie vernachlässigen, daß der Wohlfahrtsstaat neben der Globalisierung auch noch andere, damit nicht unmittelbar verbundene Herausforderungen zu bewältigen hatte: langsames Wirtschaftswachstum, große Arbeitslosigkeit, strukturell hohe Staatsausgaben. Während der achtziger und neunziger Jahre steckte er nicht in einer Unterbietungskonkurrenz, sondern in der Klemme zwischen dem externen Druck, die Kapitalbesteuerung zu senken einerseits und andererseits dem internen Druck, Arbeit steuerlich zu entlasten und das Niveau der Gesamtsteuereinnahmen zu verteidigen. Does globalization undermine the fiscal basis of the welfare state? The conventional wisdom believes so: open borders invite tax competition, which in turn erodes the revenues from capital taxation. However, there is little evidence to support this view. The data show that revenues from capital taxation are fairly stable in OECD countries. Some observers conclude that globalization is not much of a challenge to the welfare state. In this paper, I argue that both positions suffer from the same deficiency: They ignore that globalization was not the only challenge that the welfare state had to deal with in the 1980s and 1990s. There was also slow growth, rampant unemployment, and high levels of precommitted spending. These problems prevent a race to the bottom and trap the welfare state in a pincer movement between external pressures to reduce the tax burden on capital on the one hand, and internal pressures to defend revenue levels and relieve the tax burden on labor on the other. Tut Steuerwettbewerb weh? 1 Der conventional wisdom und seine empirische Kritik 2 Wäre die Gesamtsteuerbelastung ohne Steuerwettbewerb höher? 3 Wären die Einnahmen aus der Kapitalbesteuerung ohne Steuerwettbewerb höher? 3.1 Körperschaftsteuern 3.2 Die Besteuerung von Finanzerträgen 4 Wäre die Steuerbelastung von Arbeit und Konsum ohne Steuerwettbewerb niedriger? 4.1 Steuern und Abgaben auf Arbeit 4.2 Verbrauchsteuern 4.3 Ökosteuern 5 Rasender Stillstand statt race to the bottom Literatur