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The explicit representation of cryospheric components in Earth system models has become more and more important over the last years. However, there are few advanced coupled Earth system models that employ interactive icebergs, and most iceberg model studies focus on iceberg trajectories or ocean surface conditions. Here, we present multi-centennial simulations with a fully coupled Earth system model including interactive icebergs to assess the effects of heat and freshwater fluxes by iceberg melting on deep-ocean characteristics. The icebergs are modeled as Lagrangian point particles and exchange heat and freshwater fluxes with the ocean. They are seeded in the Southern Ocean, following a realistic present-day size distribution. Total calving fluxes and the locations of discharge are derived from an ice sheet model output which allows for implementation in coupled climate–ice sheet models. The simulations show a cooling of up to 0.2 K of deep-ocean water masses in all ocean basins that propagates from the southern high latitudes northward. We also find enhanced deep-water formation in the continental shelf area of the Ross Sea, a process commonly underestimated by current climate models. The vertical stratification is weakened by enhanced sea ice formation and duration due to the cooling effect of iceberg melting, leading to a 10 % reduction of the buoyancy frequency in the Ross Sea. The deep-water formation in this region is increased by up to 10 %. By assessing the effects of heat and freshwater fluxes individually, we find latent heat flux to be the main driver of these water mass changes. The altered freshwater distribution by freshwater fluxes and synergetic effects play only a minor role. Our results emphasize the importance of realistically representing both heat and freshwater fluxes in the high southern latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeled projections of climate change typically do not include a well-resolved ocean mesoscale due to the high computational cost of running high-resolution models for long time periods. This challenge is addressed using efficiency-maximizing modeling strategies applied to 3 km simulations of the Southern Ocean in past, present, and future climates. The model setup exploits reduced-resolution spin-up and transient simulations to initialize a regionally refined, high-resolution ocean model during short time periods. The results are compared with satellite altimetry data and more traditional eddy-present simulations and evaluated based on their ability to reproduce observed mesoscale activity and to reveal a response to climate change distinct from natural variability. The high-resolution simulations reproduce the observed magnitude of Southern Ocean eddy kinetic energy (EKE) well, but differences remain in local magnitudes and the distribution of EKE. The coarser, eddy-permitting ensemble simulates a similar pattern of EKE but underrepresents observed levels by 55 %. At approximately 1 ∘ C of warming, the high-resolution simulations produce no change in overall EKE, in contrast to full ensemble agreement regarding EKE rise within the eddy-permitting simulations. At approximately 4 ∘ C of warming, both datasets produce consistent levels of EKE rise in relative terms, although not absolute magnitudes, as well as an increase in EKE variability. Simulated EKE rise is concentrated where flow interacts with bathymetric features in regions already known to be eddy-rich. Regional EKE change in the high-resolution simulations is consistent with changes seen in at least four of five eddy-permitting ensemble members at 1 ∘ C of warming and all ensemble members at 4 ∘ C. However, substantial noise would make these changes difficult to distinguish from natural variability without an ensemble. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The explicit representation of cryospheric components in Earth System models has become more and more important over the last years. However, there are only few advanced coupled Earth System models that employ interactive icebergs, and most iceberg model studies focus on iceberg trajectories or ocean surface conditions. Here, we present multi-centennial simulations with a fully coupled Earth System model including interactive icebergs to assess the effects of heat and freshwater fluxes by iceberg melting on deep ocean characteristics. The icebergs are modeled as Lagrangian point particles and exchange heat and freshwater fluxes with the ocean. They are seeded in the Southern Ocean, following a realistic present-day size distribution. Total calving fluxes and the locations of discharge are derived from an ice sheet model output which allows for implementation in coupled climate-ice sheet models. The simulations show a cooling of deep ocean water masses in all ocean basins that propagates from the southern high latitudes northward. We also find enhanced deep water formation in the continental shelf area of the Ross Sea, a process commonly underestimated by current climate models. The vertical stratification is weakened by enhanced sea-ice formation and duration due to the cooling effect of iceberg melting. The deep water formation in this region is increased by up to 10%. By assessing the effects of heat and freshwater fluxes individually, we find latent heat flux to be the main driver of these water mass changes. The altered freshwater distribution by freshwater fluxes and synergetic effects play only a minor role. Our results emphasize the importance of realistically representing both heat and freshwater fluxes in the high southern latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two decades into the 21st century there is growing evidence for global impacts of Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change. Reliable estimates of how the Antarctic climate system would behave under a range of scenarios of future external climate forcing are thus a high priority. Output from new model simulations coordinated as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides an opportunity for a comprehensive analysis of the latest generation of state‐of‐the‐art climate models following a wider range of experiment types and scenarios than previous CMIP phases. Here the main broad‐scale 21st century Antarctic projections provided by the CMIP6 models are shown across four forcing scenarios: SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5. End‐of‐century Antarctic surface‐air temperature change across these scenarios (relative to 1995–2014) is 1.3, 2.5, 3.7 and 4.8°C. The corresponding proportional precipitation rate changes are 8, 16, 24 and 31%. In addition to these end‐of‐century changes, an assessment of scenario dependence of pathways of absolute and global‐relative 21st century projections is conducted. Potential differences in regional response are of particular relevance to coastal Antarctica, where, for example, ecosystems and ice shelves are highly sensitive to the timing of crossing of key thresholds in both atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Overall, it is found that the projected changes over coastal Antarctica do not scale linearly with global forcing. We identify two factors that appear to contribute: (a) a stronger global‐relative Southern Ocean warming in stabilisation (SSP2‐4.5) and aggressive mitigation (SSP1‐2.6) scenarios as the Southern Ocean continues to warm and (b) projected recovery of Southern Hemisphere stratospheric ozone and its effect on the mid‐latitude westerlies. The major implication is that over coastal Antarctica, the surface warming by 2100 is stronger relative to the global mean surface warming for the low forcing compared to high forcing future scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) show substantial biases in the deep ocean that are larger than the level of natural variability and the response to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations. Here, we analyze the influence of horizontal resolution in a hierarchy of five multi-resolution simulations with the AWI Climate Model (AWI-CM), the climate model used at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, which employs a sea ice–ocean model component formulated on unstructured meshes. The ocean grid sizes considered range from a nominal resolution of ∼1∘ (CMIP5 type) up to locally eddy resolving. We show that increasing ocean resolution locally to resolve ocean eddies leads to reductions in deep ocean biases, although these improvements are not strictly monotonic for the five different ocean grids. A detailed diagnosis of the simulations allows to identify the origins of the biases. We find that two key regions at the surface are responsible for the development of the deep bias in the Atlantic Ocean: the northeastern North Atlantic and the region adjacent to the Strait of Gibraltar. Furthermore, the Southern Ocean density structure is equally improved with locally explicitly resolved eddies compared to parameterized eddies. Part of the bias reduction can be traced back towards improved surface biases over outcropping regions, which are in contact with deeper ocean layers along isopycnal surfaces. Our prototype simulations provide guidance for the optimal choice of ocean grids for AWI-CM to be used in the final runs for phase 6 of CMIP (CMIP6) and for the related flagship simulations in the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Quite remarkably, retaining resolution only in areas of high eddy activity along with excellent scalability characteristics of the unstructured-mesh sea ice–ocean model enables us to perform the multi-centennial climate simulations needed in a CMIP context at (locally) eddy-resolving resolution with a throughput of 5–6 simulated years per day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]