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The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is a region with prominent decadal variability that has experienced remarkable warming and cooling trends in the last few decades. These observed trends have been preceded by slow-paced increases and decreases in the Labrador Sea density (LSD), which are thought to be a precursor of large-scale ocean circulation changes. This article analyses the interrelationships between the LSD and the wider North Atlantic across an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations. In particular, it analyses the link between subsurface density and the deep boundary density, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the subpolar gyre (SPG) circulation, and the upper-ocean temperature in the eastern SPNA. All simulations exhibit considerable multidecadal variability in the LSD and the ocean circulation indices, which are found to be interrelated. LSD is strongly linked to the strength of the subpolar AMOC and gyre circulation, and it is also linked to the subtropical AMOC, although the strength of this relationship is model-dependent and affected by the inclusion of the Ekman component. The connectivity of LSD with the subtropics is found to be sensitive to different model features, including the mean density stratification in the Labrador Sea, the strength and depth of the AMOC, and the depth at which the LSD propagates southward along the western boundary. Several of these quantities can also be computed from observations, and comparison with these observation-based quantities suggests that models representing a weaker link to the subtropical AMOC might be more realistic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) decreases rapidly in subpolar and Nordic regions where the warm upper layer loses its buoyancy due to intense heat loss, sinks, and flows south. The major volume loss of the upper limb of the MOC, ~9.6 Sv out of 18.4 ± 3.4 Sv, occurs as subduction across the Iceland Basin and Irminger Sea while the major heat loss, 273 TW out of 395 ± 74 TW is associated with the MOC branch that continues into the Nordic Seas where North Atlantic deep overflow water is produced. The 122 ± 79 TW heat flux convergence in the subpolar gyre appears to be significantly larger than various estimates of heat loss to the atmosphere. Much of the 0.09 ± 0.02 Sv freshwater divergence is presumably balanced by runoff from the Greenland shelf. These estimates suggest that the Nordic Seas, not the Labrador Sea, are key to the state of the MOC. Plain language summary: The meridional overturning circulation is a two‐dimensional view of the flow north of upper‐ocean warm water and its return south as cold deep and intermediate water. But the actual pathways of warm‐to‐cold conversion are several and remarkably diverse: One branch continues into the Nordic Seas where very dense water is produced and eventually spills back into the deep North Atlantic, another branch weaves its way around the entire subpolar basin and the southern tip of Greenland to the Labrador Sea where intermediate water is formed, and the third branch is an overturning that takes place within the subpolar waters between Greenland and Scotland. Volumetrically, this is the largest branch, but in terms of heat loss the Nordic Seas, branch surrenders far more heat to the atmosphere than the other two combined. It thus plays the key role in maintaining a strong meridional overturning circulation. Key Points: Great heat loss and production of dense water overflow water in Nordic Seas key to the state of the MOC not the Labrador SeaHeat flux convergence greater than climatological estimates of subpolar gyre heat lossSubpolar fresh water divergence balanced by freshwater loss from Greenland shelf [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric reanalyses are commonly used to force numerical ocean models, but despite large discrepancies reported between different products, the impact of reanalysis uncertainty on the simulated ocean state is rarely assessed. In this study, the impact of uncertainty in surface fluxes of buoyancy and momentum on the modeled Atlantic meridional overturning at 25°N is quantified for the period January 1994–December 2011. By using an ocean-only climate model and its adjoint, the space and time origins of overturning uncertainty resulting from air–sea flux uncertainty are fully explored. Uncertainty in overturning induced by prior air–sea flux uncertainty can exceed 4 Sv (where 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) within 15 yr, at times exceeding the amplitude of the ensemble-mean overturning anomaly. A key result is that, on average, uncertainty in the overturning at 25°N is dominated by uncertainty in the zonal wind at lags of up to 6.5 yr and by uncertainty in surface heat fluxes thereafter, with winter heat flux uncertainty over the Labrador Sea appearing to play a critically important role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although proxies have generally been used to study deep ocean convection and overturning circulation in the Labrador Sea, their efficacy has not been explicitly evaluated because observations that directly measure those variables are scarce. In this study, the volume of newly formed Labrador Sea Water (LSW) and the overturning circulation in the Labrador Sea are estimated using observational data and output from a high-resolution ocean model and then compared to proxies used to represent those variables. The comparisons reveal the limitations of proxies, highlighting the desirability of robust estimates derived from direct monitoring in the region [i.e., from Argo and Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP)]. A linkage among LSW formation, overturning circulation in the Labrador Sea, and the export of LSW from the basin on interannual time scales is found in the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Argo floats are used to investigate Labrador Sea overturning and its variability on seasonal time scales. This is the first application of Argo floats to estimate overturning in a deep-water formation region in the North Atlantic. Unlike hydrographic measurements, which are typically confined to the summer season, floats offer the advantage of collecting data in all seasons. Seasonal composite potential density and absolute geostrophic velocity sections across the mouth of the Labrador Sea assembled from float profiles and trajectories at 1000 m are used to calculate the horizontal and overturning circulations. The overturning exhibits a pronounced seasonal cycle; in depth space the overturning doubles throughout the course of the year, and in density space it triples. The largest overturning [1.2 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) in depth space and 3.9 Sv in density space] occurs in spring and corresponds to the outflow of recently formed Labrador Sea Water. The overturning decreases through summer and reaches a minimum in winter (0.6 Sv in depth space and 1.2 Sv in density space). The robustness of the Argo seasonal overturning is supported by a comparison to an overturning estimate based on hydrographic data from the AR7W line. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors identify an interdecadal oscillatory mode of the North Atlantic atmosphere-ocean system in a general circulation model (GFDL CM2.1) via a linear inverse model (LIM). The oscillation mechanism is mostly embedded in the subpolar gyre: anomalous advection generates density anomalies in the eastern subpolar gyre, which propagate along the mean gyre circulation and reach the subpolar gyre center around 10 years later, when associated anomalous advection of the opposite sign starts the other half cycle. As density anomalies reach the Labrador Sea deep convection region, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) anomalies are also induced. Both the gyre and AMOC anomalies then propagate equatorward slowly, following the advection of density anomalies. The oscillation is further demonstrated to be more likely an ocean-only mode while excited by the atmospheric forcing; in particular, it can be approximated as a linearly driven damped oscillator that is partly excited by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The slowly evolving interdecadal oscillation significantly improves and prolongs the LIM's prediction skill of sea surface temperature (SST) evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep convection in the Labrador Sea (LS) resumed in the winter of 2007/08 under a moderately positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) state. This is in sharp contrast with the previous winter with weak convection, despite a similar positive NAO state. This disparity is explored here by analyzing reanalysis data and forced-ocean simulations. It is found that the difference in deep convection is primarily due to differences in large-scale atmospheric conditions that are not accounted for by the conventional NAO definition. Specifically, the 2007/08 winter was characterized by an atmospheric circulation anomaly centered in the western North Atlantic, rather than the eastern North Atlantic that the conventional NAO emphasizes. This anomalous circulation was also accompanied by anomalously cold conditions over northern North America. The controlling influence of these atmospheric conditions on LS deep convection in the 2008 winter is confirmed by sensitivity experiments where surface forcing and/or initial conditions are modified. An extended analysis for the 1949-2009 period shows that about half of the winters with strong heat losses in the LS are associated with such a west-centered circulation anomaly and cold conditions over northern North America. These are found to be accompanied by La Niña-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, suggesting that the atmospheric response to La Niña may have a strong influence on LS deep convection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface forcing perturbation experiments are examined to identify the key forcing elements associated with late-twentieth-century interannual-to-decadal Atlantic circulation variability as simulated in an ocean-sea ice hindcast configuration of the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). Buoyancy forcing accounts for most of the decadal variability in both the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the subpolar gyre circulation, and the key drivers of these basin-scale circulation changes are found to be the turbulent buoyancy fluxes: evaporation as well as the latent and sensible heat fluxes. These three fluxes account for almost all of the decadal AMOC variability in the North Atlantic, even when applied only over the Labrador Sea region. Year-to-year changes in surface momentum forcing explain most of the interannual AMOC variability at all latitudes as well as most of the decadal variability south of the equator. The observed strengthening of Southern Ocean westerly winds accounts for much of the simulated AMOC variability between 30°S and the equator but very little of the recent AMOC change in the North Atlantic. Ultimately, the strengthening of the North Atlantic overturning circulation between the 1970s and 1990s, which contributed to a pronounced SST increase at subpolar latitudes, is explained almost entirely by trends in the atmospheric surface state over the Labrador Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new framework is proposed for investigating the atmospheric forcing of North Atlantic Ocean circulation. Instead of using classical modes of variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the east Atlantic pattern, the weather regimes paradigm was used. Using this framework helped avoid problems associated with the assumptions of orthogonality and symmetry that are particular to modal analysis and known to be unsuitable for the NAO. Using ocean-only historical and sensitivity experiments, the impacts of the four winter weather regimes on horizontal and overturning circulations were investigated. The results suggest that the Atlantic Ridge (AR), negative NAO (NAO−), and positive NAO (NAO+) regimes induce a fast (monthly-to-interannual time scales) adjustment of the gyres via topographic Sverdrup dynamics and of the meridional overturning circulation via anomalous Ekman transport. The wind anomalies associated with the Scandinavian blocking regime (SBL) are ineffective in driving a fast wind-driven oceanic adjustment. The response of both gyre and overturning circulations to persistent regime conditions was also estimated. AR causes a strong, wind-driven reduction in the strengths of the subtropical and subpolar gyres, while NAO+ causes a strengthening of the subtropical gyre via wind stress curl anomalies and of the subpolar gyre via heat flux anomalies. NAO− induces a southward shift of the gyres through the southward displacement of the wind stress curl. The SBL is found to impact the subpolar gyre only via anomalous heat fluxes. The overturning circulation is shown to spin up following persistent SBL and NAO+ and to spin down following persistent AR and NAO− conditions. These responses are driven by changes in deep water formation in the Labrador Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) vary considerably among different climate models; for example, some models show clear peaks in their power spectra while others do not. To elucidate these model differences, transfer functions are used to estimate the frequency domain relationship between surface forcing fields, including sea surface temperature, salinity, and wind stress, and the resulting AMOC response. These are estimated from the outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and phase 3 (CMIP3) control runs for eight different models, with a specific focus on Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1), and the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), which exhibit rather different spectral behavior. The transfer functions show very little agreement among models for any of the pairs of variables considered, suggesting the existence of systematic model errors and that considerable uncertainty in the simulation of AMOC in current climate models remains. However, a robust feature of the frequency domain analysis is that models with spectral peaks in their AMOC correspond to those in which AMOC variability is more strongly excited by high-latitude surface perturbations that have periods corresponding to the frequency of the spectral peaks. This explains why different models exhibit such different AMOC variability. These differences would not be evident without using a method that explicitly computes the frequency dependence rather than a priori assuming a particular functional form. Finally, transfer functions are used to evaluate two proposed physical mechanisms for model differences in AMOC variability: differences in Labrador Sea stratification and excitation by westward-propagating subsurface Rossby waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the hydrographic processes involved in setting the maximum wintertime sea ice (SI) extent in the Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay. The analysis is based on an ocean and sea ice state estimate covering the summer-to-summer 1996/97 annual cycle. The estimate is a synthesis of in situ and satellite hydrographic and ice data with a regional coupled ⅓° ocean-sea ice model. SI advective processes are first demonstrated to be required to reproduce the observed ice extent. With advection, the marginal ice zone (MIZ) location stabilizes where ice melt balances ice mass convergence, a quasi-equilibrium condition achieved via the convergence of warm subtropical-origin subsurface waters into the mixed layer seaward of the MIZ. An analysis of ocean surface buoyancy fluxes reveals a critical role of low-salinity upper ocean (100 m) anomalies for the advancement of SI seaward of the Arctic Water-Irminger Water Thermohaline Front. Anomalous low-salinity waters slow the rate of buoyancy loss-driven mixed layer deepening, shielding an advancing SI pack from the warm subsurface waters, and are conducive to a positive surface meltwater stabilization enhancement (MESEM) feedback driven by SI meltwater release. The low-salinity upper-ocean hydrographic conditions in which the MESEM efficiently operates are termed sea ice-preconditioned waters (SIPW). The SI extent seaward of the Thermohaline Front is shown to closely correspond to the distribution of SIPW. The analysis of two additional state estimates (1992/93, 2003/04) suggests that interannual hydrographic variability provides a first-order explanation for SI maximum extent anomalies in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compared four simulations of the 8.2 ka event to assess climate model sensitivity and skill in responding to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations. All of the simulations used the same freshwater forcing, 2.5 Sv for one year, applied to either the Hudson Bay (northeastern Canada) or Labrador Sea (between Canada's Labrador coast and Greenland). This freshwater pulse induced a decadal-mean slowdown of 10-25%in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of the models and caused a large-scale pattern of climate anomalies that matched proxy evidence for cooling in the Northern Hemisphere and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The multi-model ensemble generated temperature anomalies that were just half as large as those from quantitative proxy reconstructions, however. Also, the duration of AMOC and climate anomalies in three of the simulations was only several decades, significantly shorter than the duration of 150 yr in the paleoclimate record. Possible reasons for these discrepancies include incorrect representation of the early Holocene climate and ocean state in the North Atlantic and uncertainties in the freshwater forcing estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The inclusion of parameterized Nordic Sea overflows in the ocean component of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) results in a much improved representation of the North Atlantic tracer and velocity distributions compared to a control CCSM4 simulation without this parameterization. As a consequence, the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on decadal and longer time scales is generally lower, but the reduction is not uniform in latitude, depth, or frequency-space. While there is dramatically less variance in the overall AMOC maximum (at about 35°N), the reduction in AMOC variance at higher latitudes is more modest. Also, it is somewhat enhanced in the deep ocean and at low latitudes (south of about 30°N). The complexity of overturning response to overflows is related to the fact that, in both simulations, the AMOC spectrum varies substantially with latitude and depth, reflecting a variety of driving mechanisms that are impacted in different ways by the overflows. The usefulness of reducing AMOC to a single index is thus called into question. This study identifies two main improvements in the ocean mean state associated with the overflow parameterization that tend to damp AMOC variability: enhanced stratification in the Labrador Sea due to the injection of dense overflow waters and a deepening of the deep western boundary current. Direct driving of deep AMOC variance by overflow transport variations is found to be a second-order effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]