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This study examines how the independence of monetary policy changes in situations where the interest rate differential between domestic and foreign rates inverts, utilizing the trilemma indices. For analysis, this paper uses the trilemma indices developed by Kim et al. (2017) to analyze the relationship between the monetary policy independence index and the other two trilemma indices, namely the capital account openness index and the exchange rate stability index, across 45 countries from 2002 to 2018. The analysis reveals that the trilemma's validity is contingent. In particular, no statistically significant negative correlation was found between the monetary policy independence index and exchange rate stability index during periods of interest rate differential inversion. A positive correlation emerges between exchange rate stability and the independence of monetary policy, particularly when the inverted interest rate differential exceeds a certain threshold. This situation, where the exchange rate remains stable despite low domestic interest rates, implies that the central bank is effectively managing monetary policy to appropriately respond to economic conditions, which is reflected in the monetary policy independence index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study advances the understanding of the Preferred Habitat Model's capacity to shed light on the inter-market transfer of mean returns and the diffusion of price volatility in Pakistani investment markets. It examines the extent to which returns in one market exert a systematic influence on returns across others under the potential sway of interest rate policy shifts, USD exchange rate volatility, and domestic inflation trends. Employing a methodological arsenal that includes the GARCH process, enhanced by Dynamic Conditional Correlations (DCC), as well as the Markov Switching Model, this research assesses the propagation of mean returns and volatility across markets. The analysis uncovers significant linkages between monetary policy and stock market indices, underscoring the profound impact of monetary policy on cross-market performance transmission. These insights are pivotal for regulators overseeing the nuanced interaction between monetary policy and market performance. They are crucial for local and international investors interested in developing economies, especially in Pakistan's markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This empirical study investigates Sierra Leone's monetary policy transmission channels using a VAR model from 2011Q1 to 2021Q4, emphasising the interest rate, exchange rate, and credit channels. Rigorous pre-estimation tests and variable transformations were applied to enhance result robustness and credibility. The research evaluates the impact of recent monetary policy and financial sector reforms in Sierra Leone and unveils insights into the dynamics of each of the three transmission channels. Notably, the interest rate channel revealed a delayed and transitory impact of policy rate changes on inflation and economic activity. The exchange rate channel underscored the importance of exchange rate stability in managing inflation, particularly in an importdependent economy. Furthermore, the credit channel highlighted the challenges of private sector credit expansion amidst substantial government borrowing, urging a balanced approach. Overall, the study contributes to a better understanding of Sierra Leone's monetary policy transmission channels, emphasizing the positive influence of recent institutional, operational, and legal reforms adopted by the Bank of Sierra Leone. More precisely, it presents the need to strengthen the interest rate, credit and exchange rate channels for more effective policy transmission. A key policy recommendation is for the Bank of Sierra Leone to continue its reform agenda, with a focus on enhancing these channels to better achieve its policy objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main goal of this work is to develop an empirical investigation on the occurrence of a sanitary crisis with data of cases and deaths of Covid-19, and their possible impact on the exchange rate volatility for the BRICS with daily data from February 20, 2020, to February 28, 2022, using ARDL, FMOLS and DOLS models. The results indicate that increases in the number of confirmed cases and deaths are associated with lower levels of exchange rate volatility, indicating that monetary and fiscal policies were inefficient in the context of a generalized health crisis in directing capital flows, and since the Covid-19 crisis is a global one, during the period of analysis there was a relative exchange rate stability, in other words, a lower exchange rate volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of the study is to evaluate the main determinants of the Colombian gross portfolio inflows and outflows from non-resident and resident investors and to study the role of the interest rate of the domestic monetary policy. The conceptual framework is the standard portfolio model augmented with variables that measure push and pull factors and macroeconomic surprises. The regression model is an autoregressive vector with exogenous variables or VAR-X and the information is of monthly frequency for the period 2011 to 2020. The main results indicate that the policy interest rate does not turn out to be a statistically significant determinant of gross portfolio flows from non-resident and resident investors with the statistics used and during the analyzed period. In addition, the estimates show important differences in the responses to other domestic and foreign macroeconomic shocks. Finally, there seems to be to some degree a substitution between portfolio capital outflows from non-residents and capital inflows from residents. This means that the movements of some investors cushion the exchange rate, balance of payments, and probably financial and macroeconomic effects of the others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent multidimensional crisis has harmed the global economy because countries are currently integrated. In this study, we examine the spillover effect of the United States (US) interest rate on the output gap of ASEAN+3 countries using the dynamic spatial Durbin model from 2010 to 2020. After controlling for various institutional variables, this analysis further examines the effect of the exchange rate and the COVID-19 pandemic on the output gap. This model captures the spatial interactions and short- and long-term effects of interest rate monetary policies. The findings indicate a negative spillover effect of the US central bank interest rate on ASEAN+3 countries' output gap. The result had significant direct and indirect short-term effects. Additionally, exchange rates negatively affect the output gap. The output gap decreased because of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study is expected to be useful for monetary authorities in developing the best monetary policy for economic recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study investigates the monetary policy responses of emerging market inflation targeters to financial factors both before and after the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). Methodology: Taylor rules, augmented with the nominal exchange rate, the exchange market pressure index, and the U.S. federal funds effective rate, are analyzed by using the augmented mean group (AMG) panel estimator for 12 emerging market economies (EMEs) that adopted an inflation targeting regime. The sample is divided into two periods around the GFC: 2002Q1-2007Q4 and 2010Q1-2019Q4. Results: Inflation significantly and positively impacted interest rate settings during both periods. The panel AMG results indicate that the EMEs' responses to financial variables only had a significant effect during the post-crisis period, while the federal funds effective rate had the most impact among the financial variables. The country-specific results indicate that some central banks also reacted to financial variables before the GFC. Conclusion: Inflation played an important role in policy rate decisions for both periods despite the slightly decreasing weight in interest rate settings after the GFC due to the increasing influence of financial variables. Although financial variables were important in setting interest rates during both periods, the EMEs' post-GFC monetary policies focused more on financial stability. Furthermore, their monetary policies became more compatible with external financial conditions after the GFC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan is the property of Universitas Airlangga and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study investigated the impact of monetary policy channels on the real sector performance in selected sub-Saharan African countries. This study covers the period 1990 to 2020. The broad objective of the study was to examine the impact of monetary policy transmission channels on the real sectors of selected sub-Saharan African countries within the period, 1990–2020. Using the system generalized method of moments (sys-GMMs) amidst other pre-estimation and post-estimation tests, it was discovered that credit and exchange rate channels positively drove agricultural productivity, while interest rate channel exerted a negatively significant influence. Conversely, credit and exchange rate channels were found to negatively affect manufacturing, while interest rate channels had no significant impact on the manufacturing sector. Given the overwhelming impact of monetary policy channels on both the agricultural and manufacturing sectors of the SSA economies, it is recommended that effective monetary policy framework be put in place to continually create positive transmission effect on the real and productive sectors of the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Southern African Customs Union is the oldest customs union in the world and the member states form a currency union with the South African Rand being the regional currency anchor. Therefore, currency movements amongst SACU member are dependent on the developments on the Rand which, in turn, can affect stock market development in the region. We examine the time-frequency relationship between exchange rates and stock market returns in SACU countries using continuous wavelet transforms. Our empirical analysis is two-staged. Firstly, we employ wavelet power spectrum to examine the time-frequency properties of the individual series. Secondly, we use wavelet coherence analysis and phase dynamics to examine the synchronization between the variables in a time-frequency space. Our findings show stronger (weaker) exchange rate-stock returns relations are found during periods of higher (lower) inflation whereas we observe a stronger (weaker) relationship during periods of lower interest rate environment. Moreover, we find more significant long-run relationships for countries with more independent monetary policy (South Africa and Botswana) whereas these relations are more prominent over the short-run for countries with pegged exchange rates (Eswatini and Namibia). We also observe that periods of oil and currency shocks impact the exchange rate-stock returns relationship in SACU countries with pegged exchange rates (Eswatini and Namibia). Our findings bear important implications for different stakeholders. For instance, this study has implications for exchange rate policy as it addresses the issue of whether the exchange rate can be used to improve market performance or exchange rate developments spillover into the stock market. Furthermore, corporate managers and stock market participants would be interested in our findings as it identifies periods of market inefficiency when exchange rates can be used to beat the stock market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study accounts for the nexus between financial development and intra-trade relationships using nine Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) countries with the extraction of data from secondary sources spanning between 1990 and 2021. The following are the conclusions drawn from the study: exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate, which are critical macroeconomic variables, represent unfavourable factors that suppress the intra-trade relationships within the RCEP region. In light of the above, this study recommends that any time the policymakers in RCEP countries desire better intra-trade relationships within RCEP countries, they should implement a unified monetary policy that will stimulate interest rate, exchange rate and inflation rate in such a way that the intra-trade relationships will be enhanced among the RCEP countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The highest rate of inflation was observed as countries faced increasing prices for food and energy, primarily due to supply disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. In such challenging times, interest rate-based monetary policy remains an important issue for fighting inflation. From a policy perspective, central banks all over the globe tighten their monetary policy stance to cool inflation. Arguably, Turkey opted for an ultra-lose monetary policy via very low interest rates in response to high inflation. Drawing on the Turkish experience, we tackle the evolution of the Turkish central bank's operations in the face of high inflation, providing further details on how ultra-loose monetary policy implementation can be extremely challenging in a highly inflationary economy. We extend the existing body of literature by employing the time-varying Granger causality model proposed by Shi et al. (J Time Ser Anal 39:966–987,2018; J Financ Econom 18:158–180, 2020). Using monthly data (2005:01 to 2022:01), we examine the links between interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates to detect possible changes across various time horizons. The major finding of this study explores the significant episodes of causality by detecting the origination date of causality starting from 2018 toward 2021. This finding confirms that August 2018 and its repercussions on the sharp currency depreciation and high Turkish inflation are pivotal moments to understand the nature of Turkey's economic growth model and the impact of monetary policy in the ongoing economic crisis that hit Turkey harder. Our results reveal that a poorly managed country's interest rate decisions can be disastrous for the exchange rate movements and inflation dynamics, whereas the conclusion is that there are limits to what central banks can do. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to examine the determinants of the exchange rate based on the portfolio balance model. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), we empirically evaluate the effect of private net foreign assets and the traditional factors affecting the exchange rate dynamics in Mexico from 1990-2019. The main results suggest that: i) the portfolio approach constitutes a consistent system to explain the behavior of the exchange rate; ii) an increase in economic activity and interest rate differentials triggers an appreciation of the exchange rate; iii) an increase in the inflation gap and private net foreign assets causes a depreciation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article aims to study the effectiveness and symmetry of the transmission of monetary policy in Algeria through the channels of interest rates, credit, and exchange rates in both the short and long term, using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) method. The study of asymmetric effects of monetary policy channels on both output and prices stability is of paramount value for monetary policy analysis and implementation. The results have shown that the transmission of monetary policy in Algeria exhibits an asymmetric nature, except for the effect of bank lending interest rates on real gross domestic product and inflation and that the traditional interest rate channel is the most effective in transmitting the effects of monetary policy to real gross domestic product, while positive variations in credit volume are most effective in the long term, and negative changes in the exchange rate are the most efficient in the short-term concerning the transmission to inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Comparative Economic Research is the property of Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Lodzkiego and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Panorama Económico is the property of Universidad de Cartagena and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this paper, we address how the monetary authority should react to financial market status and exchange rate movements in a small open economy New Keynesian model with financial frictions due to asymmetric information between savers and borrowers. We show that the small economy with financial frictions is more susceptible to the exogenous shocks under the fixed exchange rate regime than under the flexible exchange regime. The small economy experiences a more prolonged and deeper economic recession under the fixed exchange rate regime than under the flexible exchange rate regime. The monetary policy taking into account external finance premium is better than the interest rate rule without considering the financial market status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Economy & Market Communication Review / Casopis za Ekonomiju i Trzisne Komunikacije is the property of Pan-European University Apeiron and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study employs the panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model to examine the spillover effect of US unconventional monetary policy on inflation and non-inflation targeting emerging markets post credit crunch and during COVID-19 from 2000Q1 to 2020Q4. Unlike other analyses, this paper adds to the existing body of knowledge by employing a dummy variable to represent the United States' quantitative easing. Other included control variables are equity prices, the federal reserve rate, the exchange rate, central bank assets and the short-term interest rate. This paper estimated two-panel VARs, Model one and Model two, for inflation and non-inflation targeting emerging markets, respectively. Model one consists of eight inflation-targeting markets, and Model two consists of four non-inflation-targeting countries. Other included control variables are equity prices, the federal reserve rate, the nominal effective exchange rate, and the central bank policy rate. According to the empirical results, the US unconventional monetary policy induces a surge in the exchange rate and a decrease in the central bank policy rate for both inflation and non-inflation targeting emerging markets. However, there was no significant impact on the equity prices. The empirical results are statistically significant, robust, and consistent with previous studies except for the response of equity prices. Unconventional monetary policy is effective in steering macroeconomic variables in developed economies. The monetary policymakers in emerging markets must also use the currency reserve to stabilise the macroeconomic variables in response to US unconventional monetary policy shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

From 1996 to 2016, Brazil faced great fluctuations in both its exchange and interest rates and simultaneously a huge growth of its agriculture has taken place. Examining the literature that deals with the relationships among these three variables (interest rate, exchange rate and agriculture GDP) we verified that monetary and exchange shocks can affect directly and/or indirectly (through relative prices) the agriculture GDP. However, these effects can be coincident or contrary between them. What actually happened in Brazil from 1996 to 2016? This article aimed to access the direct and indirect effects of monetary and exchange rate shocks on Brazil´s agriculture GDP taking into consideration years ranging from 1996 thru 2016. Using quarterly data for the 1996-2016 period, autoregressive vector models (VAR and VEC) were estimated. The exchange rate and monetary shocks were analyzed considering three different interest rate types, namely: the current Brazil´s Federal Funds Rate (Nominal SELIC rate), real interest rate of agricultural loans, and ex-ante real interest rate. We also analyzed the effect of the exchange rate separately on prices paid and on prices received by the agriculture (both make up the relative prices of agriculture) using an ARDL (Distributed Lag Self-Regressive Model) model with monthly data. Our econometric results revealed that both direct and indirect effects of monetary shocks were negative on the agriculture growth while the direct and indirect effects of exchange rate shocks were mutually contradictory themselves on the Brazil´s agriculture GDP. Because of the technical changes that have taken place during the 2000s and the 2010s, which turned some of the most representative crops more dependent on imported inputs, and the hedging behavior that the firms have adopted during the first two decades of the 21st century, which protects them from exchange oscillations, the agricultural sector lost sensitivity to the exchange rate variations in some extent. Regarding policy implications, it could be said that monetary policy can be efficient in the promotion of the agricultural sector, and, in fact, Brazilian government has been doing such through the rural credit subsidized interest rate. Exchange policy, on the other hand, proved to be inefficient in favoring the agriculture, or, in other words, the government can freely exercise exchange policy without regards to harm the agricultural sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Recognizing the importance of effective policymaking requires an understanding of Monetary Policy Shocks and Output Growth in Nigeria. The purpose of the paper is to examine how interest rate and exchange rate channels of the transmission mechanism affect output growth in Nigeria in response to monetary shocks. Methodology: The structural vector autoregression method is the empirical model. In the empirical analysis, quarterly data from 2000 to 2020 were used for the gross domestic product, nominal effective exchange rate, consumer price index, monetary policy rate, and open buyback. Findings: The results of the impulse response function showed that in Nigeria, monetary policy shocks are more significant because they have a long-lasting impact on growth up to the sixteenth quarter of the forecast horizon. Originality/value: The study's conclusions would enable Nigerian policymakers to anticipate consequences of monetary policy shocks through indirect demand-side Keynesian monetary policy transmission mechanism through the channels of exchange and interest rates. The study recommends that to move the economy toward predetermined directions, monetary authorities should be cautious of the level/quantity of money in circulation rather than focusing on increasing or decreasing the monetary policy rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty about monetary policy associated with uncertainty in interest rate is an important determinant of economic decisions. Due to the dominant position of the US economy on global financial markets, in addition to countries' own uncertainties, uncertainty related to the monetary policy of the USA may have an impact on other economies. In this study, we investigated the impact of interest rate uncertainties for different maturities on industrial production, inflation, unemployment and exchange rate. We used the impulse response functions based on the vector error correction model (VECM). We also conducted the Granger causality test to analyse the causality. We examined the impact of US monetary policy uncertainty on the mentioned variables of Turkey. Our findings suggest that uncertainty in long-term interest rates increases unemployment and inflation rates. Although we find that uncertainty in interest rate reduces growth of industrial production, we do not find a causal relationship between these variables. Finally, we show that a shock related to US monetary policy uncertainty tends to increase unemployment significantly, while reducing the growth of production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The banking system represents the most important component of the financial system, "heart of the economy", its role being identified, mainly, in two plans. Thus, first of all, it is vital for maintaining a good functioning of the economy, the National Bank of Romania having prerogatives in ensuring price stability. Secondly, credit institutions, through their function as financial intermediaries, ensure a real process of financing the needs registered by the economic environment. Maintaining price stability in difficult economic conditions, of systemic shock, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, required the adoption of measures by the National Bank of Romania to mitigate the negative effects. One of the measures adopted by the central bank during the pandemic was the reduction of the policy interest rate by 0.5 pp. In this context, from the research carried out on the basis of an econometric analysis, it emerged that the change in the consumer credit benchmark is also influenced by the positive or negative evolution of other economic factors, such as the monetary policy interest rate, the variation of the consumer price index and the fluctuation of the exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial stability is one of the main factors for a country's economic sustainability nowadays. Financial instability has adverse effects on the economy which can lead to the financial crisis. This research tries to answer how monetary policy related to Indonesian financial stability in the short and long term, how specific the relations between its parts such as money supply, interest rate, and exchange rate to indonesian financial stability, and which one of these parts that have ways more effective to influence Indonesian financial stability. This research data use time series quarterly as quantitative data in Indonesia. By employing econometric models of error correction on quarter data that consist of the stationary stochastic process, long-run model and cointegration approach and error correction model, this model can indicate how quickly the effect of the money supply, interest rate or exchange rate is fully accepted by the financial stability in the short term. The finding of this study showed that the increase in interest rate began to be able to improve indonesian financial stability responsively in four times the period, namely an increase of one percent in interest rate could increase 0.4161 percent of financial stability in Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study addresses the nexus between household savings and gross capital formation in Nigeria within the periods of 1990 and 2020. After extracting data from the World Development Indicators, the data were analyzed within the techniques of Fully Modified Least Squares and Granger causality. Consequently, the following conclusion among others are drawn from this study. First and foremost, household savings and gross capital formation have a positive and significant relationship in Nigeria. But, total credit to private sector and capital formation have a significant inverse relationship. FDI, broad money supply and interest rate have an insignificant direct relationship with capital formation. But, the case of exchange rate shows an insignificant inverse relationship with capital formation. Similarly, capital formation and household savings have a uni-directional causality, which flows from capital formation. Also, gross capital formation Granger causes interest rate and total credit to private sector. Therefore, this study submits that household savings contributes both positive and significant influence on gross capital formation in Nigeria in one hand, and gross capital formation is a strategic factor that propels household savings in Nigeria on the other hand. In the light of the above findings, this study recommends that the Nigerian policymakers should embark on a favourable monetary policy that will spur broad money supply, interest rate, exchange rate and credit to private sector in the direction of capital accumulation. In the same page, the policy that will promote saving attitude of the Nigerians should be embarked on the economy will enjoy a sustainable capital accumulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A notable attribute of the empirical studies on monetary rules is that few published articles rely on the normative evaluation in eliminating unwanted economic uncertainty. To prevail over this shortcoming, this paper introduces the optimal mitigation of economic uncertainty and determines its applicability through a sample of 14 selected countries. Using the combination of the theoretically derived optimal mitigation of economic uncertainty with the empirical estimations leads to specific monetary rules. The findings of this paper provide some policy implications; the optimal mitigation of economic uncertainty can characterise the optimal use of the interest rate and exchange rate to eliminate economic uncertainty and serve as a monetary policy guide in the adjustment process to restore macroeconomic conditions of the equilibrium that eventually promote the best macroeconomic outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the 2000s, Brazil accumulated a substantial amount of foreign reserves through foreign exchange market interventions undertaken by its Central Bank. Mainstream economics considers such interventions a restriction to monetary policy autonomy. This article analyses the relationship between monetary policy autonomy and exchange rate regimes theoretically and empirically for the Brazilian economy. We argue that the compensation principle, as a direct derivation of the endogenous money approach, is an alternative to both the trilemma and dilemma views in the mainstream perspective. Then, we provide empirical evidence in favour of the compensation principle in the Brazilian economy by verifying the exogeneity of the interest rate and estimating a vector error-correction model (VECM) that indicates that the foreign reserves do not have a long-term effect on the monetary base, while they present a significant and large effect on the repos account. In line with the compensation view, we conclude that in the 2000s, Brazil had more monetary policy autonomy than conventional approaches would have suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study is to measure the impact of financial liberalization on the effectiveness of monetary policy in Algeria during the period 1970-2021 using the Autoregressive Distributed Gaps (ARDL) model and analyzing the implications of the financial liberalization policy on the monetary delivery channels as well. In the context of the liberalization of the financial sector, both channels of the exchange rate and financial assets play an effective role in transferring the impact of monetary policy to the real sector compared to the channels of interest rate and bank lending, with central banks relying on the use of indirect tools that depend on market forces to manage their monetary policy. The results of the study also concluded that the policy of financial liberalization represented in loans granted to the private sector as a percentage of GDP positively affects the effectiveness of monetary policy and enhances its ability as a tool to direct the economy towards achieving the goal of economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study examines the long-run and short-run e¤ects of monetary factors (money supply, interest rate, inflation, and foreign currency exchange rate) on the Indian stock market. The study uses sophisticated econometric tools to analyse monthly observations from January 1993 to December 2019. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test indicates that the variables involved in the present study are either I(0) or I(1). The Bai-Perron multiple break point test identifies four breakpoint dates in the Indian stock market index series. The breakpoint dates are incorporated as di¤erent dummy variables in the ARDL-ECM regression. The F-bounds test reveals that the variables in the study are cointegrated within the time period under consideration. Our findings show that the interest rate, which is a proxy for monetary policy instrument, and the foreign currency exchange rate have a negative impact on the Indian stock market both in the long-run and short-run. Furthermore, we find that structural changes significantly a¤ect the performance of Indian stock market. The study covers a long period of time, which the majority of previous work did not consider. Furthermore, the study uses di¤erent dummy variables in the ARDL model to represent structural breaks (as determined by the Bai-Perron multiple break point test). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study adopts the New Keynesian theoretical model to analyse the heterogeneity spillover effect of U.S. permanent and temporary monetary policy shock on China's economy through an exchange rate channel. It also employs the Bayesian technique to estimate SVAR model and obtain two main results. First, the permanent increase in the nominal interest rate in the U.S. causes Chinese yuan appreciation and U.S. dollar depreciation, which has a negative spillover impact on China's economy and leads to the decline in China's real output. Second, the temporary increase in the nominal interest rate in the U. S. leads to Chinese yuan depreciation, which has a positive spillover impact on China' s macroeconomy and leads to the rise of China's real output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper has adopted a Bayesian FAVAR approach to examine the monetary transmission mechanism in North Macedonia. The model is based on a broad data set that encompasses 140 monthly time series spanning between January 2010 and January 2019. In particular, the impact of policy on bank portfolio variables, and the impact of policy on economic activity variables have been evaluated. Our findings show that monetary tightening, causes a fall in output, inflation rate, employment, bank lending, the stock of government securities held by banks, and equity prices. On the other hand, it increases short-term money market rates, lending rates, deposits, and only in the immediate aftermath of the key policy rate rise, the share of non-performing loans in the loan portfolio. The study is expected to provide useful input to monetary policy implementation in North Macedonia. The study as well enriches the literature in this domain by discussing the challenges facing monetary authorities of small open economies with fixed exchange rate regimes in understanding how their policy instrument work through the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of monetary policy on the real sector and to assess the effectiveness of various monetary policy transmission channels in Zambia. Methodology: The Johansen cointegration approach, Error Correction Model (ECM), and Granger causality test were undertaken to achieve the study objectives. Findings: The study results reveal that economic growth proxied by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Zambia is negatively affected by lending rates, inflation, and an increase in private sector credit, while exchange rate and deposit rates were found to have a positive impact on the other hand. These results confirm the presence of exchange rate and credit channels of monetary policy transmission in Zambia. Originality/Value: The study contributes to the theoretical and empirical literature on the impact of monetary policy on the real sector. Further, the study provides, through the results of the study, the effectiveness of various monetary policy transmission channels in Zambia. Therefore, the study is part of the studies the Central Bank and academic institutions and research think tanks can make reference to during further research and practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The active participation of the central bank in exchange rate management has accelerated the growth of foreign exchange reserve in India. The massive reserve stockpiling has substantially contributed to apprehensions about excess liquidity in the domestic economy. The extent to which these concerns are justified depends on the degree to which the central bank is able to mitigate its effects on monetary aggregates. This study is an attempt to assess the magnitude of the sterilization coefficient by using quarterly data from 1996 to 2019. In order to estimate sterilization and offset coefficients, the study employed the two-stage least squares (2SLS) method under the theoretical framework of simultaneous equation modelling. The findings show that the reserve accumulation through central bank interventions puts pressure on money supply. However, the RBI sterilization policy was effective as the central bank was able to sterilize 93 percent of its interventions, while the offset coefficient was 72 percent during the period of study. The low value of the offset coefficient compared to the sterilization coefficient indicates a high degree of monetary policy independence in neutralizing the central bank's purchase interventions. Based on the findings, it can be recommended that policymakers should consider the sustainability of interventions and sterilization operations as the dual policy objectives of independent exchange rate management and monetary policy cannot be achieved in the presence of a high interest rate in an inflation-targeting regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable financial development plays a vital role in new institutional economics and transaction cost economics. This asserts the important role of interest and exchange rates and political stability as determinants of an economy's institutional quality. The current study aimed to investigate the effects of the real interest rate, the exchange rate and political stability on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in G7 and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 2005 to 2019. The panel fully modified least square and panel dynamic least square estimators used in this study revealed a significant positive long-run relationship between the real interest rate and FDI inflows in the G7 and GCC countries. In addition, there was a significant negative long-run relationship between the exchange rate and FDI inflows in the G7 countries; this relationship was insignificant in the GCC countries. There was also a significant negative long-run relationship between political stability and FDI inflows in the GCC countries; this relationship was insignificant in the G7 countries. The panel least square method confirmed the results of the previous two estimators for the real interest rate and FDI inflows in the G7 countries. Based on these findings, to increase FDI inflows, efforts should be made to lower the lending interest rate and enhance capital formation and trade. Furthermore, market forces should be allowed to determine the real interest rate, and monetary policy should focus on developing a systematic exchange rate to promote political stability and the sustainability of foreign investment in developed and developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We test the hypothesis that public banks reduce monetary policy power for Brazilian economy, during the 2000-2018 period. Previous studies have shown that companies with access to government driven credit present smaller fall in investment and production after a contractionary monetary policy shock. Nevertheless, these studies are based on microeconomic data and ignore cost-push effects of monetary policy. We employ state dependent local projections (Jordà, 2005) to compare monetary policy power (defined as the sensibility of inflation to changes in basic interest rate) between periods of high credit of public banks and periods of high credit of private banks. We do not find evidence that monetary policy is less powerful in periods of high credit of public banks. Even though periods of high credit of public banks present a lower effect over output, those periods present less persistent price puzzles than periods of high private credit. We conduct several robustness tests to confirm our results. We attribute those results to lower flexibility in interest rates of credit from public banks, what leads to lower transmission in financial costs, lower reduction in capital stock and lower puzzle in exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Facing the current complicated situation of the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to medical efforts on disease prevention and treatment, governments of countries also have to come up with solutions to deal with the negative impacts of the pandemic on the economy. This study aims to provide specific, comprehensive, and scientific estimates of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Vietnamese economy. By using the Bayesian method to estimate DSGE models, research results show that a shock increase by one standard deviation (about 1.49% increase in the probability of a COVID-19 outbreak) to the Covid status variable immediately reduces the output gap by 0.94%. However, this effect only lasts for one quarter, and the output gap widens again. Meanwhile, refinancing interest rates, inflation, and exchange rate changes also have an immediate decline in response to this shock, but the magnitude of the reduction is relatively small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Agricultural Economics & Social Sciences is the property of Egyptian National Agricultural Library (ENAL) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Mexican Journal of Economics & Finance / Revista Mexicana de Economia y Finanzas is the property of Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This document is a summary of two articles published by the Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW). The first article discusses sustainable finance taxonomies and their role in supporting climate action. The authors analyze 26 taxonomies worldwide and find that while they are aligned with environmental policy goals, they often lack dynamic screening approaches and reporting obligations. The second article explores the information channel of monetary policy. By studying interest rates, exchange rates, and other variables, the authors identify three structural monetary policy shocks, with the third shock exhibiting characteristics of a central bank information shock. [Extracted from the article]

This document is a summary of two articles published by the Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW). The first article discusses sustainable finance taxonomies and their role in supporting climate action. The authors analyze 26 taxonomies worldwide and find that while they are aligned with environmental policy goals, they often lack dynamic screening approaches and reporting obligations. The second article explores the information channel of monetary policy. By studying interest rates, exchange rates, and other variables, the authors identify three structural monetary policy shocks, with the third shock exhibiting characteristics of a central bank information shock. [Extracted from the article]

The study examines the relationship between the stock market and exchange rate in South Africa for the period from 1980 to 2020. Quarterly data was used employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model given the order of integration of the variables. The empirical results revealed that there is a long-term relationship between the variables of interest. The results also revealed that there is a negative relationship between the stock market and exchange rate movement. The results also show that there is a negative relationship between the stock market and the interest rate as well as inflation as measured by CPI. These results imply that innovations in the exchange rate do have an impact on what happens to the stock market. The impact of exchange rates on stock market can be positive in the short run and negative in the long run and so policymakers can use our findings to avoid making unnecessary monetary or fiscal policy decisions. Policy makers may be able to know when to intervene in influencing the markets using monetary or fiscal policies. Investors and portfolio managers can apply the findings of this study to hedge against exchange rate risk, efficiently diversify their portfolios and predict future stock market movements by observing the exchange rate market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since Barnett derived the user cost price of money, the economic theory of monetary services aggregation has been developed and extended into a field of its own with solid foundations in microeconomic theory. Divisia monetary aggregates have repeatedly been shown to be strictly preferable to their simple sum counterparts, which have no competent foundations in microeconomic aggregation or index number theory. However, most central banks in the world, including that of Singapore, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), still report their monetary aggregates as simple summations. Recent macroeconomic research about Singapore tends to focus on exchange rates as a monetary policy target but ignores the aggregate quantity of money. Is that because quantities of money are irrelevant to economic activity? To examine the role of monetary quantities as potential monetary instruments, indicators, or targets and their relevance to predicting real economic activity in Singapore, this paper applies the user cost of money formula and the recently developed credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates formula to construct monetary services indexes for Singapore. We produce those state-of-the-art monetary services indexes from Jan 1991 to Mar 2021. We see that Divisia measures behave differently from simple sum measures in the period before the year 2000, while interest rates were high. Credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary services move closely with the conventional Divisia monetary aggregates, since the volume of credit card transactions in Singapore is relatively small compared with other monetary service assets. In future work, we plan to use our data to explore central bank policy in Singapore and to propose improvements in that policy. By making our data available to the public, we encourage others to do the same. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study intends to determine the drivers of high food prices in Turkey by employing the Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) model for the January 2011 and March 2021 periods. The study has used external and domestic factors such as oil prices, world food prices, interest rate, exchange rate, money supply growth rate, producer price in agricultural goods. The findings indicate that all determinants show a significant positive contribution to the explanation of food prices except oil prices. The most substantial explanatory factor of food price is the price inertia shock in food prices. Domestic factors such as producer prices, interest rate, money supply, and exchange rate have also contributed to high food prices, while oil prices and world food prices have not played any substantial role. The results are robust compared to a different SVAR model identified by Cholesky decomposition. It is inferred that both exchange rate and monetary expansion have been quite effective in variations of food price in recent years. Overall, the findings indicate that controlling the food price movements is critical to ensuring overall price stability in the Turkish economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies and how crises affect the coordination between policymakers in Turkey. This study's novelty is that a nonlinear Taylor rule indicating monetary policy response function is estimated based on the Threshold Generalized Method of Moments (Threshold GMM) methodology over the period January 2006--March 2020. The empirical findings reveal that when fiscal policy has an expansionary stage, especially in crises times, the policy interest rate does not react significantly to the inflation gap, output gap and real effective exchange rate gap in expansionary periods. On the contrary the policy interest rate gives statistically important responses to these variables during contractionary fiscal policy periods. Thus, the effectiveness of the Taylor rule appears in a period of contractionary fiscal policy. This situation gives rise to the significant policy implication that the monetary policymaker's success in controlling inflation increases with the contractionary fiscal policy. Finally, it has been observed that effective coordination between monetary and fiscal policies did not occur during crisis periods, but compatible coordination was achieved in other periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to examine the determinant of the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against US dollar. Exchange rate in Iraq has passed through two phases, the first one is adopting fix exchange rate that started from 1990 to 2003 and the other one that comes after is floating exchange rate. This paper is an attempt to examine the determinant of exchange rate in Iraq for the period of 1990 - 2020, by employing ARDL bounds test approach to explore the long-run and short-run relationship between exchange rate, interest rate, money supply and GDP. The results show that there is a short run and significant relationship between exchange rate and interest rate, money supply and GDP. Accordingly, controlling exchange rate needs a mixture of fiscal and monetary policies. The findings shed some new insights for policymakers on dealing with exchange rate in Iraq. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study was purposed to determine the short-term and long-term relationship of monetary variable movement to employment opportunities in Indonesia. The variables used are interest rates, exchange rates, inflation and exports as independent variables, while the employment opportunities as dependent variable. The analysis process used error correction model (ECM). The data used in this study were from 1997 to 2019. The results of the study showed that partially export was the variable that had an influence on employment opportunities in Indonesia. However, simultaneously in the short and long term relationship, all variables affect the employment opportunities in Indonesia. The study of opportunities per business sector is the main interest for further researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs a five-variable monetary policy transmission model within a structural vector error correction (SVEC) modelling framework for Thailand to examine the relative contributions of the policy interest rate and a monetary aggregate of real output and prices. The model is estimated using quarterly data for the 2000Q2-2019Q4 period after imposing both short- and long-term restrictions. The empirical results suggest that the policy interest rate and the monetary aggregate contribute significantly to the forecast-error-variances of real output and prices, irrespective of whether the policy interest rate or the monetary aggregate appears to be the lead variable. That a shock to the money stock contributes to real output and to prices, whether treated as a policy instrument or as an endogenously determined variable within a generalized macroeconomic system, is consistent with the implication of classical monetary theory, which suggests the existence of a long-run equilibrium relation among money, real output, prices, interest rates and exchange rates. The results also support a co-integral relation among the four variables in Thailand. A major policy implication is that an injtation-targeting central bank such as the Bank of Thailand can deploy a monetary aggregate as a monetary policy instrument, particularly in a low inflation environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to achieve the main objective of the European Central Bank and implicitly of the national central banks that make up the European System of Central Banks, the Governing Council of the ECB bases its decisions on a two-pillar monetary policy strategy and implements them both through ordinary monetary policy, as well as through unconventional measures. Monetary policy is the set of actions by which monetary authorities monitor and regulate the amount of currency in circulation, the level of interest rates, exchange rates and other economic and monetary indicators in order to achieve the general objectives of economic policy. The main monetary policy instruments used to achieve the objectives are market operations, permanent facilitation and the establishment of minimum required reserves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]