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BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials found that twice-yearly mass azithromycin administration (MDA) reduces childhood mortality, presumably by reducing infection burden. World Health Organization (WHO) issued conditional guidelines for mass azithromycin administration in high-mortality settings in sub-Saharan Africa given concerns for antibiotic resistance. While prolonged twice-yearly MDA has been shown to increase antibiotic resistance in small randomized controlled trials, the objective of this study was to determine if macrolide and non-macrolide resistance in the gut increases with the duration of azithromycin MDA in a larger setting. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Macrolide Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) study was conducted in Niger from December 2014 to June 2020. It was a cluster-randomized trial of azithromycin (A) versus placebo (P) aimed at evaluating childhood mortality. This is a sub-study in the MORDOR trial to track changes in antibiotic resistance after prolonged azithromycin MDA. A total of 594 communities were eligible. Children 1 to 59 months in 163 randomly chosen communities were eligible to receive treatment and included in resistance monitoring. Participants, staff, and investigators were masked to treatment allocation. At the conclusion of MORDOR Phase I, by design, all communities received an additional year of twice-yearly azithromycin treatments (Phase II). Thus, at the conclusion of Phase II, the treatment history (1 letter per 6-month period) for the participating communities was either (PP-PP-AA) or (AA-AA-AA). In Phase III, participating communities were then re-randomized to receive either another 3 rounds of azithromycin or placebo, thus resulting in 4 treatment histories: Group 1 (AA-AA-AA-AA-A, N = 51), Group 2 (PP-PP-AA-AA-A, N = 40), Group 3 (AA-AA-AA-PP-P, N = 27), and Group 4 (PP-PP-AA-PP-P, N = 32). Rectal swabs from each child (N = 5,340) were obtained 6 months after the last treatment. Each child contributed 1 rectal swab and these were pooled at the community level, processed for DNA-seq, and analyzed for genetic resistance determinants. The primary prespecified outcome was macrolide resistance determinants in the gut. Secondary outcomes were resistance to beta-lactams and other antibiotic classes. Communities recently randomized to azithromycin (groups 1 and 2) had significantly more macrolide resistance determinants than those recently randomized to placebo (groups 3 and 4) (fold change 2.18, 95% CI 1.5 to 3.51, Punadj < 0.001). However, there was no significant increase in macrolide resistance in communities treated 4.5 years (group 1) compared to just the most recent 2.5 years (group 2) (fold change 0.80, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.00, Padj = 0.010), or between communities that had been treated for 3 years in the past (group 3) versus just 1 year in the past (group 4) (fold change 1.00, 95% CI 0.78 to 2.35, Padj = 0.52). We also found no significant differences for beta-lactams or other antibiotic classes. The main limitations of our study were the absence of phenotypic characterization of resistance, no complete placebo arm, and no monitoring outside of Niger limiting generalizability. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that mass azithromycin distribution for childhood mortality among preschool children in Niger increased macrolide resistance determinants in the gut but that resistance may plateau after 2 to 3 years of treatment. Co-selection to other classes needs to be monitored. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02047981 https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02047981.

ImportanceRepeated mass distribution of azithromycin has been shown to reduce childhood mortality by 14% in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the estimated effect varied by location, suggesting that the intervention may not be effective in different geographical areas, time periods, or conditions.ObjectiveTo evaluate the efficacy of twice-yearly azithromycin to reduce mortality in children in the presence of seasonal malaria chemoprevention.Design, setting, and participantsThis cluster randomized placebo-controlled trial evaluating the efficacy of single-dose azithromycin for prevention of all-cause childhood mortality included 341 communities in the Nouna district in rural northwestern Burkina Faso. Participants were children aged 1 to 59 months living in the study communities.InterventionsCommunities were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive oral azithromycin or placebo distribution. Children aged 1 to 59 months were offered single-dose treatment twice yearly for 3 years (6 distributions) from August 2019 to February 2023.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was all-cause childhood mortality, measured during a twice-yearly enumerative census.ResultsA total of 34 399 children (mean [SD] age, 25.2 [18] months) in the azithromycin group and 33 847 children (mean [SD] age, 25.6 [18] months) in the placebo group were included. A mean (SD) of 90.1% (16.0%) of the censused children received the scheduled study drug in the azithromycin group and 89.8% (17.1%) received the scheduled study drug in the placebo group. In the azithromycin group, 498 deaths were recorded over 60 592 person-years (8.2 deaths/1000 person-years). In the placebo group, 588 deaths were recorded over 58 547 person-years (10.0 deaths/1000 person-years). The incidence rate ratio for mortality was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.67-1.02; P = .07) in the azithromycin group compared with the placebo group. The incidence rate ratio was 0.99 (95% CI, 0.72-1.36) in those aged 1 to 11 months, 0.92 (95% CI, 0.67-1.27) in those aged 12 to 23 months, and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.57-0.94) in those aged 24 to 59 months.Conclusions and relevanceMortality in children (aged 1-59 months) was lower with biannual mass azithromycin distribution in a setting in which seasonal malaria chemoprevention was also being distributed, but the difference was not statistically significant. The study may have been underpowered to detect a clinically relevant difference.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03676764.

The WHO guidelines on mass distribution of azithromycin for child survival recommend monitoring of mortality to evaluate effectiveness. Trials that contributed evidence to these guidelines used a population-based census to monitor vital status, requiring census workers to visit each household biannually (twice yearly). Birth history is an alternative to the census approach that may be more feasible because it decreases the time and labor needed for mortality monitoring. This study aimed to compare the population-based census (reference standard) and birth history (index test) approaches to estimating mortality among children 1 to 59 months old using data from the Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) trial. Sixteen communities that received 5 years of biannual census in the MORDOR trial were selected randomly also to receive birth history surveys. The census approach recorded more participants and households than birth history, with correlations more than 0.94 for each. The correlation between number of deaths in each community was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.59-0.94). A comparison of the mortality incidence rate estimated from the census against the under-5 mortality rate estimated from the birth history resulted in a correlation of 0.60 (95% CI, 0.15-0.84). Of the 47% of children who were linked individually to compare vital status from each method, the death status of children had a sensitivity of 80% (95% CI, 73-89) and a specificity of 98% (95% CI, 98-99), comparing birth history to census. Overall birth histories were found to be a reasonable alternative to biannual census for tracking vital status.

Clinic-based recruitment for preventative interventions for child health may select for healthier populations compared with community-based outreach. Nutritional status during infancy as measured by anthropometry is predictive of mortality, growth faltering later in life, and poor cognitive development outcomes. We evaluated baseline differences in infant nutritional status among children recruited directly in their community versus clinic recruitment among infants participating in a trial of azithromycin compared with placebo for prevention of mortality in three districts of Burkina Faso. Infants between 5 and 12 weeks of age were recruited in their community of residence via vaccine outreach teams or in primary health-care clinics during vaccine clinics. Weight, height, and mid upper arm circumference were measured. We used linear and logistic regression models to compare anthropometric outcomes among community and clinic recruited infants, adjusting for age at enrollment, gender, and season. Among 32,877 infants enrolled in the trial, 21,273 (64.7%) were recruited via community outreach. Mean weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) was -0.60 ± 1.2 (SD), weight-for-length z-score (WLZ) was -0.16 ± 1.5, and length-for-age z-score was-0.53 ± 1.3. Infants enrolled in the community had lower WAZ (mean difference, -0.12; 95% CI, -0.20 to -0.04) and WLZ (mean difference, -0.21; 95% CI, -0.32 to -0.09). Community-recruited infants were more often underweight (WAZ < -2; odds ratio [OR], 1.25; 95% CI, 1.09-1.43) and wasted (WLZ < -2; OR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.31-1.79). There was no evidence of a difference in height-based measures. Community and clinic recruitment likely reach different populations of children.

ObjectivesVitamin A deficiency affects an estimated 29% of all children under 5 years of age in low/middle-income countries, contributing to child mortality and exacerbating severity of infections. Biannual vitamin A supplementation (VAS) for children aged 6-59 months can be a low-cost intervention to meet vitamin A needs. This study aimed to present a framework for evaluating the equity dimensions of national VAS programmes according to determinants known to affect child nutrition and assist programming by highlighting geographical variation in coverage.MethodsWe used open-source data from the Demographic and Health Survey for 49 countries to identify differences in VAS coverage between subpopulations characterised by various immediate, underlying and enabling determinants of vitamin A status and geographically. This included recent consumption of vitamin A-rich foods, access to health systems and services, administrative region of the country, place of residence (rural vs urban), socioeconomic position, caregiver educational attainment and caregiver empowerment.ResultsChildren who did not recently consume vitamin A-rich foods and who had poorer access to health systems and services were less likely to receive VAS in most countries despite potentially having a greater vitamin A need. Differences in coverage were also observed when disaggregated by administrative regions (88% of countries) and urban versus rural residence (35% of countries). Differences in vitamin A coverage between subpopulations characterised by other determinants of vitamin A status varied considerably between countries.ConclusionVAS programmes are unable to reach all eligible infants and children, and subpopulation differences in VAS coverage characterised by various determinants of vitamin A status suggest that VAS programmes may not be operating equitably in many countries.

Mass azithromycin distribution reduces all-cause childhood mortality in some high-mortality settings in sub-Saharan Africa. Although the greatest benefits have been shown in children 1 to 5 months old living in areas with high mortality rates, no evidence of a benefit was found of neonatal azithromycin in a low-mortality setting on mortality at 6 months. We conducted a 1:1 randomized, placebo-controlled trial evaluating the effect of a single oral 20-mg/kg dose of azithromycin or matching placebo administered during the neonatal period on all-cause and cause-specific infant mortality at 12 months of age in five regions of Burkina Faso. Neonates were eligible if they were between the ages of 8 and 27 days and weighed at least 2,500 g at enrollment. Cause of death was determined via the WHO 2016 verbal autopsy tool. We compared all-cause and cause-specific mortality using binomial regression. Of 21,832 infants enrolled in the study, 116 died by 12 months of age. There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality between the azithromycin and placebo groups (azithromycin: 52 deaths, 0.5%; placebo, 64 deaths, 0.7%; hazard ratio, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.56-1.17; P = 0.30). There was no evidence of a difference in the distribution of causes of death (P = 0.40) and no significant difference in any specific cause of death between groups. Mortality rates were low at 12 months of age, and there was no evidence of an effect of neonatal azithromycin on all-cause or cause-specific mortality.

BackgroundPneumonia is the primary cause of death among HIV-infected children in Africa, with mortality rates as high as 35-40% in infants hospitalized with severe pneumonia. Bacterial pathogens and Pneumocystis jirovecii are well known causes of pneumonia-related death, but other important causes such as cytomegalovirus (CMV) and tuberculosis (TB) remain under-recognized and undertreated. The immune response elicited by CMV may be associated with the risk of developing TB and TB disease progression, and CMV may accelerate disease caused both by HIV and TB. Minimally invasive autopsies confirm that CMV and TB are unrecognized causes of death in children with HIV. CMV and TB may also co-infect the same child. The aim of this study is to compare the impact on 15-day and 1-year mortality of empirical treatment against TB and CMV plus standard of care (SoC) versus SoC in HIV-infected infants with severe pneumonia.MethodsThis is a Phase II-III, open-label randomized factorial (2 × 2) clinical trial, conducted in six African countries. The trial has four arms. Infants from 28 to 365 days of age HIV-infected and hospitalized with severe pneumonia will be randomized (1:1:1:1) to (i) SoC, (ii) valganciclovir, (iii) TB-T, and (iv) TB-T plus valganciclovir. The primary endpoint of the study is all-cause mortality, focusing on the short-term (up to 15 days) and long-term (up to 1 year) mortality. Secondary endpoints include repeat hospitalization, duration of oxygen therapy during initial admission, severe and notable adverse events, adverse reactions, CMV and TB prevalence at enrolment, TB incidence, CMV viral load reduction, and evaluation of diagnostic tests such as GeneXpert Ultra on fecal and nasopharyngeal aspirate samples and urine TB-LAM.DiscussionGiven the challenges in diagnosing CMV and TB in children and results from previous autopsy studies that show high rates of poly-infection in HIV-infected infants with respiratory disease, this study aims to evaluate a new approach including empirical treatment of CMV and TB for this patient population. The potential downsides of empirical treatment of these conditions include toxicity and medication interactions, which will be evaluated with pharmacokinetics sub-studies.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov , NCT03915366, Universal Trial Number U111-1231-4736, Pan African Clinical Trial Registry PACTR201994797961340.

BackgroundTo facilitate mass distribution of azithromycin, trachoma control programmes use height instead of weight to determine dose for children 6 months to 15 years old. WHO has recommended azithromycin distribution to children 1-11 months old to reduce mortality in high mortality settings under carefully monitored conditions. Weight was used to determine dose in children 1-5 months old in studies of azithromycin distribution for child survival, but a simplified approach using age or height for all aged 1-11 months old could increase programme efficiency in real-world settings.MethodsThis secondary analysis used data from two cluster randomised trials of azithromycin distribution for child mortality in Niger and Burkina Faso. An exhaustive search algorithm was developed to determine the optimal dose for different age groups, using tolerance limits of 10-20 mg/kg for children 1-2 months old and 15-30 mg/kg for children 3-11 months old. Height-based dosing was evaluated against the existing trachoma dosing pole and with a similar exhaustive search.ResultsThe optimal two-tiered age-based approach suggested a dose of 80 mg (2 mL) for children 1-2 months old and 160 mg (4 mL) for children 3-11 months old. Under this schedule, 89%-93% of children would have received doses within tolerance limits in both study populations. Accuracy was 93%-94% with a three-tiered approach, which resulted in doses of 80 mg (2 mL), 120 mg (3 mL) and 160 mg (4 mL) for children 1-2, 3-4 and 5-11 months old, respectively. For children 1-5 months old, the existing height pole would result in 70% of doses within tolerance limits. The optimisation identified height-based dosing options with 95% accuracy, although this would require changes to the existing dosing pole as well as additional training to measure infants lying flat.ConclusionsOverall, an age-based approach with two age tiers resulted in high accuracy while considering both concerns about overdosing in this young population and simplicity of field operations.

The MORDOR trial in Niger, Malawi, and Tanzania found that biannual mass distribution of azithromycin to children younger than 5 years led to a 13.5% reduction in all-cause mortality (NCT02048007). To help elucidate the mechanism for mortality reduction, we report IgG responses to 11 malaria, bacterial, and protozoan pathogens using a multiplex bead assay in pre-specified substudy of 30 communities in the rural Niger placebo-controlled trial over a three-year period (n = 5642 blood specimens, n = 3814 children ages 1-59 months). Mass azithromycin reduces Campylobacter spp. force of infection by 29% (hazard ratio = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.89; P = 0.004) but serological measures show no significant differences between groups for other pathogens against a backdrop of high transmission. Results align with a recent microbiome study in the communities. Given significant sequelae of Campylobacter infection among preschool aged children, our results support an important mechanism through which biannual mass distribution of azithromycin likely reduces mortality in Niger.

BackgroundSustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.MethodsWe completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.FindingsGlobal U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.InterpretationGlobal child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background Under-5 pneumonia mortality remains high in low-income countries. In 2014 the World Health Organization (WHO) advised that children with chest indrawing pneumonia, but without danger signs or peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2) < 90% be treated in the community, rather than hospitalized. In Malawi there is limited pulse oximetry availability. Methods Secondary analysis of 13,413 under-5 pneumonia cases in Malawi. Pneumonia associated case fatality ratios (CFR) were calculated by disease severity under the assumptions of the 2005 and 2014 WHO Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) guidelines, with and without pulse oximetry. We investigated if pulse oximetry readings were missing not at random (MNAR). Results The CFR of patients classified as having non-severe pneumonia per the 2014 IMCI guidelines doubled under the assumption that pulse oximetry was not available (1.5% without pulse oximetry vs 0.7% with pulse oximetry, P

Biannual mass azithromycin distribution reduces all-cause child mortality in some settings in sub-Saharan Africa; however, adverse events and short-term infectious outcomes following treatment have not been well characterized. Children aged 0-59 months were recruited in Nouna Town, Burkina Faso, and randomized 1:1 to a single directly observed oral 20 mg/kg dose of azithromycin or placebo. At 14 days after treatment, caregivers were interviewed about adverse event symptoms their child experienced since treatment and if they had sought health care for their child. All children had tympanic temperature measured at the 14-day visit. We compared adverse events and clinic visits using logistic regression models between azithromycin- and placebo-controlled children. Of 450 children enrolled, 230 were randomized to azithromycin and 220 to placebo. On average, children were aged 28 months, and 50.9% were female. Caregivers of 20% of children reported that their child experienced at least one adverse event, with no significant difference between study arms (19.9% azithromycin; 20.0% placebo, logistic regression P = 0.96). Vomiting was more often reported by caregivers of azithromycin-treated children than by those of placebo-treated children (7.2% azithromycin, 1.9% placebo, logistic regression P = 0.01). There were no significant differences in other adverse events or clinic visits. Adverse events following a single oral dose of azithromycin in preschool children were rare and mild. Azithromycin administration appears safe in this population.

BackgroundMass distribution of azithromycin to preschool children twice yearly for 2 years has been shown to reduce childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa but at the cost of amplifying macrolide resistance. The effects on the gut resistome, a reservoir of antimicrobial resistance genes in the body, of twice-yearly administration of azithromycin for a longer period are unclear.MethodsWe investigated the gut resistome of children after they received twice-yearly distributions of azithromycin for 4 years. In the Niger site of the MORDOR trial, we enrolled 30 villages in a concurrent trial in which they were randomly assigned to receive mass distribution of either azithromycin or placebo, offered to all children 1 to 59 months of age every 6 months for 4 years. Rectal swabs were collected at baseline, 36 months, and 48 months for analysis of the participants' gut resistome. The primary outcome was the ratio of macrolide-resistance determinants in the azithromycin group to those in the placebo group at 48 months.ResultsOver the entire 48-month period, the mean (±SD) coverage was 86.6±12% in the villages that received placebo and 83.2±16.4% in the villages that received azithromycin. A total of 3232 samples were collected during the entire trial period; of the samples obtained at the 48-month monitoring visit, 546 samples from 15 villages that received placebo and 504 from 14 villages that received azithromycin were analyzed. Determinants of macrolide resistance were higher in the azithromycin group than in the placebo group: 7.4 times as high (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.0 to 16.7) at 36 months and 7.5 times as high (95% CI, 3.8 to 23.1) at 48 months. Continued mass azithromycin distributions also selected for determinants of nonmacrolide resistance, including resistance to beta-lactam antibiotics, an antibiotic class prescribed frequently in this region of Africa.ConclusionsAmong villages assigned to receive mass distributions of azithromycin or placebo twice yearly for 4 years, antibiotic resistance was more common in the villages that received azithromycin than in those that received placebo. This trial showed that mass azithromycin distributions may propagate antibiotic resistance. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02047981.).

BackgroundBiannual azithromycin distribution has been shown to reduce child mortality as well as increase antimicrobial resistance. Targeting distributions to vulnerable subgroups such as malnourished children is one approach to reaching those at the highest risk of mortality while limiting selection for resistance. The objective of this analysis was to assess whether the effect of azithromycin on mortality differs by nutritional status.Methods and findingsA large simple trial randomized communities in Niger to receive biannual distributions of azithromycin or placebo to children 1-59 months old over a 2-year timeframe. In exploratory subgroup analyses, the effect of azithromycin distribution on child mortality was assessed for underweight subgroups using weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) thresholds of -2 and -3. Modification of the effect of azithromycin on mortality by underweight status was examined on the additive and multiplicative scale. Between December 2014 and August 2017, 27,222 children 1-11 months of age from 593 communities had weight measured at their first study visit. Overall, the average age among included children was 4.7 months (interquartile range [IQR] 3-6), 49.5% were female, 23% had a WAZ < -2, and 10% had a WAZ < -3. This analysis included 523 deaths in communities assigned to azithromycin and 661 deaths in communities assigned to placebo. The mortality rate was lower in communities assigned to azithromycin than placebo overall, with larger reductions among children with lower WAZ: -12.6 deaths per 1,000 person-years (95% CI -18.5 to -6.9, P < 0.001) overall, -17.0 (95% CI -28.0 to -7.0, P = 0.001) among children with WAZ < -2, and -25.6 (95% CI -42.6 to -9.6, P = 0.003) among children with WAZ < -3. No statistically significant evidence of effect modification was demonstrated by WAZ subgroup on either the additive or multiplicative scale (WAZ < -2, additive: 95% CI -6.4 to 16.8, P = 0.34; WAZ < -2, multiplicative: 95% CI 0.8 to 1.4, P = 0.50, WAZ < -3, additive: 95% CI -2.2 to 31.1, P = 0.14; WAZ < -3, multiplicative: 95% CI 0.9 to 1.7, P = 0.26). The estimated number of deaths averted with azithromycin was 388 (95% CI 214 to 574) overall, 116 (95% CI 48 to 192) among children with WAZ < -2, and 76 (95% CI 27 to 127) among children with WAZ < -3. Limitations include the availability of a single weight measurement on only the youngest children and the lack of power to detect small effect sizes with this rare outcome. Despite the trial's large size, formal tests for effect modification did not reach statistical significance at the 95% confidence level.ConclusionsAlthough mortality rates were higher in the underweight subgroups, this study was unable to demonstrate that nutritional status modified the effect of biannual azithromycin distribution on mortality. Even if the effect were greater among underweight children, a nontargeted intervention would result in the greatest absolute number of deaths averted.Trial registrationThe MORDOR trial is registered at clinicaltrials.gov NCT02047981.

The Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance study showed that administration of biannual, single-dose azithromycin to preschool children reduces mortality. We sought to evaluate its impact on azithromycin resistance. Thirty randomly selected communities in Kilosa district, Tanzania, were randomized to receive 6-monthly single-dose azithromycin (∼20 mg/kg) versus placebo treatment of children aged 1-59 months. From each community, 40 children (aged 1-59 months) were randomly selected at baseline, 12 and 24 months. Isolation and resistance testing of Streptococcus pneumoniae and Escherichia coli were evaluated using nasopharyngeal and rectal swabs, respectively. The carriage prevalence and the proportion of azithromycin-resistant isolates were determined using disk diffusion. At baseline, the characteristics of the randomly selected children were similar by treatment arms. Both at baseline and in annual cross-sectional surveys, rates of S. pneumoniae and E. coli isolation between treatment arms were similar. The proportions of azithromycin-resistant S. pneumoniae isolates in the children in communities treated with azithromycin versus placebo at baseline, 12 months, and 24 months were 26.5% (18.1%; P = 0.26), 26.8% (16.5%; P = 0.29), and 13.4% (17.0%; P = 0.57), respectively. The proportions of azithromycin-resistant E. coli isolates at baseline, 12 months, and 24 months in the azithromycin (versus placebo) arms were 14.9% (18.9%; P = 0.16), 21.5% (16.6%; P = 0.10), and 14.9% (14.7%; P = 0.95), respectively. Over the 24 months, the mean treatment coverage for the azithromycin and placebo was 76.9% and 74.8%, respectively (P = 0.49). Biannual administration of single-dose azithromycin to children did not appear to result in excess azithromycin resistance in S. pneumoniae and E. coli isolates over 24 months of follow-up.

A cluster-randomized clinical trial showed that biannual single-dose azithromycin reduced mortality in preschool children; we sought to determine the effect on anemia. A simple random sample of 30 communities from Kilosa district, Tanzania, were themselves randomized to receive either 6-monthly treatment of children aged 1-59 months with single-dose azithromycin or placebo. From each community, 40 preschool children were randomly selected at baseline, 12 months, and 24 months. At surveys, the children underwent hemoglobin testing; WHO definitions for anemia were applied. After adjusting for community clustering, the prevalence of anemia was not significantly different by treatment assignment at baseline, 12 months, and 24 months. In each of the cross-sectional surveys, anemia prevalence was associated with younger age; the odds of being anemic was highest in those aged < 12 months. There was also a general decrease in the prevalence of anemia during the study. Although azithromycin was not shown to affect anemia, significantly, the study highlights burden of anemia in rural, African communities.

Reductions in malaria morbidity have been reported following azithromycin mass drug administration (MDA) for trachoma. The recent Macrolides Oraux pour Reduire les Deces avec un Oeil sur la Resistance (MORDOR) trial reported a reduction in child mortality following biannual azithromycin MDA. Here, we investigate the effects of azithromycin MDA on malaria at the MORDOR-Malawi study site. A cluster-randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial, with 15 clusters per arm, was conducted. House-to-house census was updated biannually, and azithromycin or placebo syrup was distributed to children aged 1-59 months for a total of four biannual distributions. At baseline, 12-month, and 24-month follow-up visits, a random sample of 1,200 children was assessed for malaria with thick and thin blood smears and hemoglobin measurement. In the community-level analysis, there was no difference in the prevalence of parasitemia (1.0% lower in azithromycin-treated communities; 95% CI: -8.2 to 6.1), gametocytemia (0.7% lower in azithromycin-treated communities; 95% CI: -2.8 to 1.5), or anemia (1.7% lower in azithromycin-treated communities; 95% CI: -8.1 to 4.6) between placebo and azithromycin communities. Further interrogation of the data at the individual level, both per-protocol (including only those who received treatment 6 months previously) and by intention-to-treat, did not identify differences in parasitemia between treatment arms. In contrast to several previous reports, this study did not show an effect of azithromycin MDA on malaria parasitemia at the community or individual levels.

The recent Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) trial reported a reduction in child mortality following biannual azithromycin mass drug administration (MDA). Here, we investigate the financial costs and cost-effectiveness from the health provider perspective of azithromycin MDA at the MORDOR-Malawi study site. During MORDOR, a cluster-randomized trial involving biannual azithromycin MDA or placebo to children aged 1-59 months, fieldwork-related costs were collected, including personnel, transport, consumables, overheads, training, and supervision. Mortality rates in azithromycin- and placebo-treated clusters were calculated overall and for the five health zones of Mangochi district. These were used to estimate the number needed to treat to avert one death and the costs per death and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. The cost per dose of MDA was $0.74 overall, varying between $0.63 and $0.94 in the five zones. Overall, the number needed to treat to avert one death was 1,213 children; the cost per death averted was $898.47, and the cost per DALY averted was $9.98. In the three zones where mortality was lower in azithromycin-treated clusters, the number needed to treat to avert one death, cost per death averted, and cost per DALY averted, respectively, were as follows: 3,070, $2,899.24, and $32.31 in Monkey Bay zone; 1,530, $1,214.42, and $13.49 in Chilipa zone; and 344, $217.98, and $2.42 in Namwera zone. This study is a preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis that indicates azithromycin MDA for reducing child mortality has the potential to be highly cost-effective in some settings in Malawi, but the reasons for geographical variation in effectiveness require further investigation.

Recent evidence indicates mass drug administration with azithromycin may reduce child mortality. This study uses verbal autopsy (VA) to investigate the causes of individual deaths during the Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) trial in Malawi. Cluster randomization was performed as part of MORDOR. Biannual household visits were conducted to distribute azithromycin or placebo to children aged 1-59 months and update the census to identify deaths for VA. MORDOR was not powered to investigate mortality effects at individual sites, but the available evidence is presented here for hypothesis generation regarding the mechanism through which azithromycin may reduce child mortality. Automated VA analysis was performed to infer the likely cause of death using two major analysis programs, InterVA and SmartVA. A total of 334 communities were randomized to azithromycin or placebo, with more than 130,000 person-years of follow-up. During the study, there were 1,184 deaths, of which 1,131 were followed up with VA. Mortality was 9% lower in azithromycin-treated communities than in placebo communities (rate ratio 0.91 [95% CI: 0.79-1.05]; P = 0.20). The intention-to-treat analysis by cause using InterVA suggested fewer HIV/AIDS deaths in azithromycin-treated communities (rate ratio 0.70 [95% CI: 0.50-0.97]; P = 0.03) and fewer pneumonia deaths (rate ratio 0.82 [95% CI: 0.60-1.12]; P = 0.22). The use of the SmartVA algorithm suggested fewer diarrhea deaths (rate ratio 0.71 [95% CI: 0.51-1.00]; P = 0.05) and fewer pneumonia deaths (rate ratio 0.58 [95% CI: 0.33-1.00]; P = 0.05). Although this study is not able to provide strong evidence, the data suggest that the mortality reduction during MORDOR in Malawi may have been due to effects on pneumonia and diarrhea or HIV/AIDS mortality.

Campylobacter has emerged as a potential important cause of childhood morbidity in sub-Saharan Africa. Biannual mass azithromycin distribution has previously been shown to reduce all-cause child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. We conducted a randomized controlled trial in Burkina Faso in which children were randomized in a 1:1 fashion to a 5-day course of azithromycin or placebo to investigate the effect of oral antibiotics on the gut microbiome. We evaluated the changes in the gut microbiome of preschool children treated with azithromycin using metagenomic DNA sequencing. We found that three Campylobacter species were reduced with azithromycin treatment compared with placebo. These results were consistent with other studies that have shown decreases in Campylobacter species after azithromycin treatment, generating the hypothesis that a decrease in Campylobacter may contribute to observations of reduction in mortality following azithromycin distribution.

Mass azithromycin distribution has been shown to reduce all-cause mortality in preschool children in sub-Saharan Africa. However, substantial heterogeneity in the apparent effect has been noted across geographic settings, suggesting a greater relative benefit in higher mortality settings. Here, we evaluated the relationship between the underlying mortality rate and the efficacy of azithromycin for the prevention of child mortality using data from multiple sites in Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, and Tanzania. Between regions, we find no strong evidence of effect modification of the efficacy of azithromycin distribution for the prevention of child mortality by the underlying mortality rate (P = 0.12), although a modest effect is consistent with our findings. Higher mortality settings could be prioritized, however, because of the larger number of deaths which could be averted with azithromycin distribution.

ObjectiveIn the present study, we aimed to compare anthropometric indicators as predictors of mortality in a community-based setting.DesignWe conducted a population-based longitudinal study nested in a cluster-randomized trial. We assessed weight, height and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) on children 12 months after the trial began and used the trial's annual census and monitoring visits to assess mortality over 2 years.SettingNiger.ParticipantsChildren aged 6-60 months during the study.ResultsOf 1023 children included in the study at baseline, height-for-age Z-score, weight-for-age Z-score, weight-for-height Z-score and MUAC classified 777 (76·0 %), 630 (61·6 %), 131 (12·9 %) and eighty (7·8 %) children as moderately to severely malnourished, respectively. Over the 2-year study period, fifty-eight children (5·7 %) died. MUAC had the greatest AUC (0·68, 95 % CI 0·61, 0·75) and had the strongest association with mortality in this sample (hazard ratio = 2·21, 95 % CI 1·26, 3·89, P = 0·006).ConclusionsMUAC appears to be a better predictor of mortality than other anthropometric indicators in this community-based, high-malnutrition setting in Niger.

Despite an overall downward trend in child sex ratios in India, some of the most imbalanced districts in 2001 (fewer girls than boys) showed signs of becoming more balanced in 2011. This analysis looked in depth at these districts to better understand the nature of the improvement in the child sex ratio using two rounds of data from the Census of India from 2001 and 2011. Data were used from the 153 districts that showed improvement in their child sex ratio between 2001 and 2011. The improvement was decomposed into: (1) less sex-selective abortion and (2) improved girl compared with boy mortality. Most of the improvement in child sex ratios were shown to be due to reductions in sex-selective abortion, although this still made up the majority of the cause of imbalanced sex ratios in 2011. Child sex ratio improvement has been happening in both rural and urban areas of India, and there is evidence of stagnation in mortality decline for urban girls.

BackgroundBiannual azithromycin distribution has been shown to reduce child mortality as well as increase antimicrobial resistance. Targeting distributions to vulnerable subgroups such as malnourished children is one approach to reaching those at the highest risk of mortality while limiting selection for resistance. The objective of this analysis was to assess whether the effect of azithromycin on mortality differs by nutritional status.Methods and findingsA large simple trial randomized communities in Niger to receive biannual distributions of azithromycin or placebo to children 1-59 months old over a 2-year timeframe. In exploratory subgroup analyses, the effect of azithromycin distribution on child mortality was assessed for underweight subgroups using weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) thresholds of -2 and -3. Modification of the effect of azithromycin on mortality by underweight status was examined on the additive and multiplicative scale. Between December 2014 and August 2017, 27,222 children 1-11 months of age from 593 communities had weight measured at their first study visit. Overall, the average age among included children was 4.7 months (interquartile range [IQR] 3-6), 49.5% were female, 23% had a WAZ < -2, and 10% had a WAZ < -3. This analysis included 523 deaths in communities assigned to azithromycin and 661 deaths in communities assigned to placebo. The mortality rate was lower in communities assigned to azithromycin than placebo overall, with larger reductions among children with lower WAZ: -12.6 deaths per 1,000 person-years (95% CI -18.5 to -6.9, P < 0.001) overall, -17.0 (95% CI -28.0 to -7.0, P = 0.001) among children with WAZ < -2, and -25.6 (95% CI -42.6 to -9.6, P = 0.003) among children with WAZ < -3. No statistically significant evidence of effect modification was demonstrated by WAZ subgroup on either the additive or multiplicative scale (WAZ < -2, additive: 95% CI -6.4 to 16.8, P = 0.34; WAZ < -2, multiplicative: 95% CI 0.8 to 1.4, P = 0.50, WAZ < -3, additive: 95% CI -2.2 to 31.1, P = 0.14; WAZ < -3, multiplicative: 95% CI 0.9 to 1.7, P = 0.26). The estimated number of deaths averted with azithromycin was 388 (95% CI 214 to 574) overall, 116 (95% CI 48 to 192) among children with WAZ < -2, and 76 (95% CI 27 to 127) among children with WAZ < -3. Limitations include the availability of a single weight measurement on only the youngest children and the lack of power to detect small effect sizes with this rare outcome. Despite the trial's large size, formal tests for effect modification did not reach statistical significance at the 95% confidence level.ConclusionsAlthough mortality rates were higher in the underweight subgroups, this study was unable to demonstrate that nutritional status modified the effect of biannual azithromycin distribution on mortality. Even if the effect were greater among underweight children, a nontargeted intervention would result in the greatest absolute number of deaths averted.Trial registrationThe MORDOR trial is registered at clinicaltrials.gov NCT02047981.

BackgroundGoal 3.2 from the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) calls for reductions in national averages of Under-5 Mortality. However, it is well known that within countries these reductions can coexist with left behind populations that have mortality rates higher than national averages. To measure inequality in under-5 mortality and to identify left behind populations, mortality rates are often disaggregated by socioeconomic status within countries. While socioeconomic disparities are important, this approach does not quantify within group variability since births from the same socioeconomic group may have different mortality risks. This is the case because mortality risk depends on several risk factors and their interactions and births from the same socioeconomic group may have different risk factor combinations. Therefore mortality risk can be highly variable within socioeconomic groups. We develop a comprehensive approach using information from multiple risk factors simultaneously to measure inequality in mortality and to identify left behind populations.MethodsWe use Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data on 1,691,039 births from 182 different surveys from 67 low and middle income countries, 51 of which had at least two surveys. We estimate mortality risk for each child in the data using a Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression model. We include commonly used risk factors for monitoring inequality in early life mortality for the SDG as well as their interactions. We quantify variability in mortality risk within and between socioeconomic groups and describe the highest risk sub-populations.FindingsFor all countries there is more variability in mortality within socioeconomic groups than between them. Within countries, socioeconomic membership usually explains less than 20% of the total variation in mortality risk. In contrast, country of birth explains 19% of the total variance in mortality risk. Targeting the 20% highest risk children based on our model better identifies under-5 deaths than targeting the 20% poorest. For all surveys, we report efficiency gains from 26% in Mali to 578% in Guyana. High risk births tend to be births from mothers who are in the lowest socioeconomic group, live in rural areas and/or have already experienced a prior death of a child.InterpretationWhile important, differences in under-5 mortality across socioeconomic groups do not explain most of overall inequality in mortality risk because births from the same socioeconomic groups have different mortality risks. Similarly, policy makers can reach the highest risk children by targeting births based on several risk factors (socioeconomic status, residing in rural areas, having a previous death of a child and more) instead of using a single risk factor such as socioeconomic status. We suggest that researchers and policy makers monitor inequality in under-5 mortality using multiple risk factors simultaneously, quantifying inequality as a function of several risk factors to identify left behind populations in need of policy interventions and to help monitor progress toward the SDG.

BACKGROUND:Biannual, mass azithromycin distribution has previously been shown to reduce all-cause child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Subgroup analysis suggested that the strongest effects were in the youngest children, leading to the hypothesis that targeting younger age groups might be an effective strategy to prevent mortality. We present the methods of two randomized controlled trials designed to evaluate mass and targeted azithromycin distribution for the prevention of child mortality in Burkina Faso, West Africa. METHODS/DESIGN:The Child Health with Azithromycin Treatment (CHAT) study consists of two nested, randomized controlled trials. In the first, communities are randomized in a 1:1 fashion to biannual, mass azithromycin distribution or placebo. The primary outcome is under-5 all-cause mortality measured at the community level. In the second, children attending primary healthcare facilities during the first 5-12 weeks of life for a healthy child visit (e.g., for vaccination) are randomized in a 1:1 fashion to a single orally administered dose of azithromycin or placebo. The primary outcome is all-cause mortality measured at 6 months of age. The trial commenced enrollment in August 2019. DISCUSSION:This study is expected to provide evidence on two health systems delivery approaches (mass and targeted treatment) for azithromycin to prevent all-cause child mortality. The results will inform global and national policies related to azithromycin for the prevention of child mortality. TRIAL REGISTRATION:ClinicalTrials.gov, ID: NCT03676764. Registered on 19 September 2018; prospectively registered pre results.

BackgroundThe MORDOR study, a cluster randomized clinical trial, showed that single-dose azithromycin (20 mg/kg) administered biannually for 2 years to preschool children reduced mortality; a study was conducted to determine its effect on clinical symptomatic episodes of malaria as a potential mechanism for mortality benefit.MethodsA randomized control trial (RCT) was conducted, whereby 30 randomly selected communities in Kilosa District, Tanzania were randomized to receive 6-monthly treatment of children ages 1-59 months with single-dose azithromycin (20 mg/kg) vs. placebo. A prospective cohort study was nested within the RCT: children, aged 1 to 35 months at baseline, were randomly selected in each community and evaluated at 6-monthly intervals for 2 years. At each visit, the children were assessed for recent or ongoing fever and anti-malarial treatment; a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) for malaria was performed. The two major outcomes of interest were prevalence of RDT positivity and clinical malaria. The latter was defined as RDT-positivity with fever at time of evaluation and/or reported fever in the 3 days prior to evaluation. Methods that account for correlations at community level and within individuals over time were used to evaluate associations.ResultsAt baseline, the prevalence rates in the children in the azithromycin and placebo arms were 17.6% vs. 15.5% for RDT positivity (p = 0.76) and 6.1% vs. 4.3% (p = 0.56) for clinical malaria. There was a decline in both RDT-positivity and clinical malaria over time in both arms. The difference by treatment assignment was not significant for clinical malaria; it was significant for RDT-positivity with greater odds of decline in the placebo arm (p = 0.01).ConclusionsLack of evidence for a significant difference in the prevalence of clinical malaria in children at any visit following treatment suggests that the effect of single-dose azithromycin on malaria is at best transient and limited in scope. Chance overrepresentation of non-seasonal transmission in the communities in the azithromycin arm may account for higher rates of RDT-positivity and less decline over time. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02047981.

BackgroundPrevious studies have focused on the relationship between increases in the health care workforce and child health outcomes, but little is known about how this relationship differs in contexts where economic growth differs by initial level and pace. This study evaluates the association between increased health professionals and the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) in rural Chinese counties from 2008 to 2014 and examines whether this relationship differs among counties with different patterns of economic growth over this period.MethodsWe estimated fixed effects models with rural counties as the unit of analysis to evaluate the association between health professional density and U5MR. Covariates included county-level gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, female illiteracy rate, value of medical equipment per bed, and province-level health expenditures (measured as a proportion of provincial GDP). To explore modification effects, we assessed interactions between health professionals and county types defined by county poverty status and county-level trajectories of growth in GDP per capita. U5MR data have been adjusted for county-level underreporting, and all other data were obtained from administrative and official sources.ResultsThe U5MR dropped by 36.19% during the study period. One additional health professional per 1000 population was associated with a 2.6% reduction in U5MR, after controlling for other covariates. County poverty status and GDP trajectories moderated this relationship: the U5MR reductions attributed to a one-unit increase in health professionals were 6.8% among poor counties, but only 1.1% among non-poor ones. These reductions were, respectively, 6.7%, 0.7%, and 4.3% in counties with initially low GDP that slowly increased, medium-level GDP that rose at a moderate pace, and high GDP that rose rapidly.ConclusionsThis study demonstrates that increased health professionals were associated with reductions in U5MR. The largest association was seen in poor counties and those with low and slowly increasing GDP per capita, which justifies further expansion of the health care workforce in these areas. This study could be instructive for other developing countries to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3 by helping them identify where additional health professionals would make the greatest contribution.

This study examines the roles of age, period, and cohort in influenza mortality trends over the years 1959-2016 in the United States. First, we use Lexis surfaces based on Serfling models to highlight influenza mortality patterns as well as to identify lingering effects of early-life exposure to specific influenza virus subtypes (e.g., H1N1, H3N2). Second, we use age-period-cohort (APC) methods to explore APC linear trends and identify changes in the slope of these trends (contrasts). Our analyses reveal a series of breakpoints where the magnitude and direction of birth cohort trends significantly change, mostly corresponding to years in which important antigenic drifts or shifts took place (i.e., 1947, 1957, 1968, and 1978). Whereas child, youth, and adult influenza mortality appear to be influenced by a combination of cohort- and period-specific factors, reflecting the interaction between the antigenic experience of the population and the evolution of the influenza virus itself, mortality patterns of the elderly appear to be molded by broader cohort factors. The latter would reflect the processes of physiological capital improvement in successive birth cohorts through secular changes in early-life conditions. Antigenic imprinting, cohort morbidity phenotype, and other mechanisms that can generate the observed cohort effects, including the baby boom, are discussed.

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Introduction: The congenital cardiac diseases (CHDs) are the leading cause of death in children. The CHDs detection and management have greatly improved over the past few decades. This review aimed to assess the effectiveness of early enteral nutrition (EEN) on postoperative outcomes in infants undergoing congenital cardiac surgery. Methods: Electronic databases PubMed, Clinical Key, UpToDate, the Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar were searched for studies published in the English language, between 2004 and 2021. This review carried out based on PRISMA statement and studies qualities assessed using "Downs and Black score". Hospital stay, intensive care unit (ICU) stay, mechanical ventilation support, aortic cross clamping and cardiopulmonary bypass were as primary outcomes. Similarly infections, vomiting and mortality were as secondary outcomes of included studies. Results: This review consists of 887 infants from 10 studies. Of these, 470 infants were assigned to the intervention group and 417 to the control group. The post-operative hospital stay shorted in the EEN group than the control group (SMD = -0.63, 95% CI: -1.03 to -0.22, P = 0.0, I2 = 87%). Similarly, EEN group lessen the ICU stay (SMD = -0.15, 95% CI: -0.42, 0.11, P = 0.0, I2 = 71%), mechanical ventilation support (SMD = -0.31, 95% CI: -0.51, -08, P = 0.08, I2 = 47%), aortic cross clamping (SMD = -0.92, 95% CI: -0.31, 2.4, P = 0.00, I2 = 96%), and cardiopulmonary bypass (SMD = -0.0, 95% CI: -0.42 to 43, P = 0.00, I2 = 71%). Secondary postoperative complications such as infections (RR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.43 to 1.08, P = 0.40, I2 = 3%). vomiting (RR = 1.47, 95% CI: 0.80 to 2.69, P = 0.90, I2 = 0%) and postoperative mortality (RR = 0.42, 95% CI: 0.03 to 5.82, P = 0.00: I2 = 80%) significantly reduced. Conclusion: Postoperative outcomes were improved in the intervention group compared to the control group, including shorter hospital stays, ICU stays, mechanical ventilation, and less postoperative complications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

IntroductionCommunity health workers (CHWs)-shown to improve access to care and reduce maternal, newborn, and child morbidity and mortality-are re-emerging as a key strategy to achieve health-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, recent evaluations of national programmes for CHW-led integrated community case management (iCCM) of common childhood illnesses have not found benefits on access to care and child mortality. Developing innovative ways to maximise the potential benefits of iCCM is critical to achieving the SDGs.Methods and analysisAn unblinded, cluster randomised controlled trial in rural Mali aims to test the efficacy of the addition of door-to-door proactive case detection by CHWs compared with a conventional approach to iCCM service delivery in reducing under-five mortality. In the intervention arm, 69 village clusters will have CHWs who conduct daily proactive case-finding home visits and deliver doorstep counsel, care, referral and follow-up. In the control arm, 68 village clusters will have CHWs who provide the same services exclusively out of a fixed community health site. A baseline population census will be conducted of all people living in the study area. All women of reproductive age will be enrolled in the study and surveyed at baseline, 12, 24 and 36 months. The survey includes a life table tracking all live births and deaths occurring prior to enrolment through the 36 months of follow-up in order to measure the primary endpoint: under-five mortality, measured as deaths among children under 5 years of age per 1000 person-years at risk of mortality.Ethics and disseminationThe trial has received ethical approval from the Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Bamako. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, national and international conferences and workshops, and media outlets.Trial registration numberNCT02694055; Pre-results.

BackgroundThe MORDOR I trial (Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance) showed that in Niger, mass administration of azithromycin twice a year for 2 years resulted in 18% lower postneonatal childhood mortality than administration of placebo. Whether this benefit could increase with each administration or wane owing to antibiotic resistance was unknown.MethodsIn the Niger component of the MORDOR I trial, we randomly assigned 594 communities to four twice-yearly distributions of either azithromycin or placebo to children 1 to 59 months of age. In MORDOR II, all these communities received two additional open-label azithromycin distributions. All-cause mortality was assessed twice yearly by census workers who were unaware of participants' original assignments.ResultsIn the MORDOR II trial, the mean (±SD) azithromycin coverage was 91.3±7.2% in the communities that received twice-yearly azithromycin for the first time (i.e., had received placebo for 2 years in MORDOR I) and 92.0±6.6% in communities that received azithromycin for the third year (i.e., had received azithromycin for 2 years in MORDOR I). In MORDOR II, mortality was 24.0 per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 22.1 to 26.3) in communities that had originally received placebo in the first year and 23.3 per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 21.4 to 25.5) in those that had originally received azithromycin in the first year, with no significant difference between groups (P = 0.55). In communities that had originally received placebo, mortality decreased by 13.3% (95% CI, 5.8 to 20.2) when the communities received azithromycin (P = 0.007). In communities that had originally received azithromycin and continued receiving it for an additional year, the difference in mortality between the third year and the first 2 years was not significant (-3.6%; 95% CI, -12.3 to 4.5; P = 0.50).ConclusionsWe found no evidence that the effect of mass administration of azithromycin on childhood mortality in Niger waned in the third year of treatment. Childhood mortality decreased when communities that had originally received placebo received azithromycin. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02047981.).

In a large community-randomized trial, biannual azithromycin distributions significantly reduced postneonatal childhood mortality in sub-Saharan African sites. Here, we present a prespecified secondary analysis showing that much of the protective effect was in the first 3 months postdistribution. Distributing more frequently than biannually could be considered if logistically feasible. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT02047981.

Mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin may reduce under-5 child mortality (U5M) in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we conducted a pooled analysis of all published cluster-randomized trials evaluating the effect of azithromycin MDA on child mortality. We pooled data from cluster-randomized trials randomizing communities to azithromycin MDA versus control. We calculated mortality rates in the azithromycin and control arms in each study, and by country for multisite studies including multiple countries. We conducted a two-stage individual community data meta-analysis to estimate the effect of azithromycin for prevention of child mortality. Three randomized controlled trials in four countries (Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, and Tanzania) were identified. The overall pooled mortality rate was 15.9 per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15.5-16.3). The pooled mortality rate was lower in azithromycin-treated communities than in placebo-treated communities (14.7 deaths per 1,000 person-years, 95% CI: 14.2-15.3 versus 17.2 deaths per 1,000 person-years, 95% CI: 16.5-17.8). There was a 14.4% reduction in all-cause child mortality in communities receiving azithromycin MDA (95% CI: 6.3-21.7% reduction, P = 0.0007). All-cause U5M was lower in communities receiving azithromycin MDA than in control communities, suggesting that azithromycin MDA could be a new tool to reduce child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. However, heterogeneity in effect estimates suggests that the magnitude of the effect may vary in time and space and is currently not predictable.

ObjectiveTo test the impact of a nationwide Long-Lasting Insecticidal Nets [LLINs] distribution program in the Democratic Republic of Congo [DRC] on all-cause under-five child mortality exploiting subnational variation in malaria endemicity and the timing in the scale-up of the program across provinces.DesignGeospatial Impact Evaluation using a difference-in-differences approach.SettingDemocratic Republic of the Congo.Participants52,656 children sampled in the 2007 and 2013/2014 DRC Demographic and Health Surveys.InterventionsThe analysis provides plausibly causal estimates of both average treatment effects of the LLIN distribution campaign and geospatial heterogeneity in these effects based on malaria endemicity. It compares the under-five, all-cause mortality for children pre- and post-LLIN campaign relative to children in those areas that had not yet been exposed to the campaign using a difference-in-differences model and controlling for year- and province-fixed effects, and province-level trends in mortality.ResultsWe find that the campaign led to a 41% decline [3.7 percentage points, 95% CI 1.3 to 6.0] in under-5 mortality risk among children living in rural areas with malaria ecology above the sample median. Results were robust to controlling for household assets and the presence of other health aid programs. No effect was detected in children living in areas with malaria ecology below the median.ConclusionThe findings of this paper make important contributions to the evidence base for the effectiveness of large scale-national LLIN campaigns against malaria. We found that the program was effective in areas of the DRC with the highest underlying risk of malaria. Targeting bednets to areas with greatest underlying risk for malaria may help to increase the efficiency of increasingly limited malaria resources but should be balanced against other malaria control concerns.

ObjectivesDelivery of pediatric critical care in low-income countries is limited by a lack of infrastructure, resources, and providers. Few studies have analyzed the epidemiology of disease associated with a PICU in a low-income country. The aim of this study was to document the primary diagnoses and the associated mortality rates of patients presenting to a tertiary PICU in Mozambique in order to formulate quality improvement projects through an international academic partnership. We hypothesized that the PICU mortality rate would be high and that sepsis would be a common cause of death.DesignRetrospective, observational study.SettingTertiary academic PICU.PatientsAll admitted PICU patients.InterventionsAll available data collection forms containing demographic and clinical data of patients admitted to the PICU at Hospital Central de Maputo, Mozambique from January 2013 to December 2013 were analyzed retrospectively.Measurements and main resultsThe patient median age was 2 years (57% male). The most common primary diagnoses were malaria (22%), sepsis (18%), respiratory tract infections (12%), and trauma (6%). The mortality rate was 25%. Mortality rates were highest among patients with sepsis (59%), encephalopathy (56%), noninfectious CNS pathologies (33%), neoplastic diseases (33%), meningitis/encephalitis (29%), burns (26%), and cardiovascular pathologies (26%). The median length of PICU stay was 2 days. HIV exposure/infection had a nonstatistically significant association with mortality. Patients admitted for burns had the highest median length of PICU stay (4 d). Most trauma admissions were male (75%), and approximately half of all trauma admissions had an associated head injury (55%).ConclusionsInfectious disease and trauma were highly represented in this Mozambican PICU, and overall mortality was high compared with high-income countries. With this knowledge, targeted collaborative projects in Mozambique can now be created and modified. Further research is needed to monitor the potential benefits of such interventions.

BACKGROUND:Mass distributions of azithromycin for trachoma have been associated with secondary benefits, including reductions in child mortality. METHODS:In the Partnership for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma cluster-randomized trial in Niger, 24 communities were randomized to annual treatment of everyone and 24 communities were randomized to biannual treatment of children under 12 for 3 years (clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00792922). Treatment was a single dose of directly observed oral azithromycin (20 mg/kg up to 1 g in adults). Vital status was assessed during annual census and monitoring visits. In this prespecified secondary analysis, we compared the mortality rate among children 6 months to less than 5 years of age by treatment arm using negative binomial regression. RESULTS:Among children 6 months to less than 5 years of age, 404 deaths occurred during the study period. The mortality rate was 35.6 deaths per 1000 person-years (231 deaths, 95% CI: 30.9-40.9) in the annual arm and 29.0 deaths per 1000 person-years (173 deaths, 95% CI: 24.8-33.8) in the biannual arm. The mortality rate ratio comparing children in the biannual arm to the annual arm was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.66-1.00, P = 0.07; primary outcome). The mortality rate ratio comparing children who died from infectious causes in the biannual arm to the annual arm was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.57-0.94; P = 0.02). No adverse events were reported. CONCLUSIONS:This secondary analysis of a cluster-randomized trial found a nonsignificant 19% decrease in mortality among children 6 months to less than 5 years of age who received biannual azithromycin compared with children who received annual azithromycin. This study was conducted in a high mortality, trachoma-endemic area; thus, results may be specific to this environment only. In addition, the trial was neither designed nor powered to detect a mortality effect, and we cannot rule out the possibility that mortality differences resulted from bias.

BackgroundWe hypothesized that mass distribution of a broad-spectrum antibiotic agent to preschool children would reduce mortality in areas of sub-Saharan Africa that are currently far from meeting the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations.MethodsIn this cluster-randomized trial, we assigned communities in Malawi, Niger, and Tanzania to four twice-yearly mass distributions of either oral azithromycin (approximately 20 mg per kilogram of body weight) or placebo. Children 1 to 59 months of age were identified in twice-yearly censuses and were offered participation in the trial. Vital status was determined at subsequent censuses. The primary outcome was aggregate all-cause mortality; country-specific rates were assessed in prespecified subgroup analyses.ResultsA total of 1533 communities underwent randomization, 190,238 children were identified in the census at baseline, and 323,302 person-years were monitored. The mean (±SD) azithromycin and placebo coverage over the four twice-yearly distributions was 90.4±10.4%. The overall annual mortality rate was 14.6 deaths per 1000 person-years in communities that received azithromycin (9.1 in Malawi, 22.5 in Niger, and 5.4 in Tanzania) and 16.5 deaths per 1000 person-years in communities that received placebo (9.6 in Malawi, 27.5 in Niger, and 5.5 in Tanzania). Mortality was 13.5% lower overall (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.7 to 19.8) in communities that received azithromycin than in communities that received placebo (P

IntroductionAlthough the association between child mortality and socioeconomic status is well established, the role of household assets as predictors of child mortality, over and above other measures of socioeconomic status, is not well studied in developing nations. This study investigated the contribution of several household resources to child mortality, beyond the influence of maternal education as a measure of socioeconomic status.MethodsThis secondary analysis used data from the 2007 Ghana Maternal Health Survey to explore the relationship of child mortality to household resources. The analysis of 7183 parous women aged 15-45 years examined household resources for their association with maternal reports of any child's death for children aged less than 5 years using a survey-weighted logistic regression model while controlling for sociodemographic and health covariates.ResultsThe overall household resources index was significantly associated with the death of one or more child in the entire sample (adjusted odd ratios (OR)=0.95; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.92, 0.98]. In stratified analysis, this finding held for women living in rural but not in urban areas. Having a refrigerator at the time of interview was associated with lower odds of reporting child mortality (OR=0.63; 95%CI: 0.48, 0.83). Having a kerosene lantern (OR=1.40; 95%CI: 1.06, 1.85) or flush toilet (OR=1.84; 95%CI: 1.23, 2.75) was associated with higher odds of reporting child mortality. Adjusted regression models showed only possession of a refrigerator retained significance.ConclusionsPossession of a refrigerator may play a role in child mortality. This finding may reflect unmeasured socioeconomic status or the importance of access to refrigeration in preventing diarrheal disease or other proximal causes of child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

Children living in homes with livestock may have both an increased risk of enteric infections and improved access to food, and therefore improved nutritional status. Few studies, however, have characterized these relationships in tandem. This study investigated the association between child health and household ownership of livestock. A cross-sectional study was performed using data from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 30 sub-Saharan African countries with 215,971 rural children under 5 years of age from 2005 to 2015. Logistic regression was performed for each country to estimate the relationship between a log2 increase in the number of livestock owned by the household and three child-health outcomes: 2-week prevalence of diarrhea, stunting, and all-cause mortality. Results for each country were combined using meta-analyses. Most countries (22 of 30) displayed an odds ratio (OR) less than 1 for child stunting associated with livestock (pooled OR = 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.95, 0.99). The results for diarrhea were more even with 14 countries displaying ORs greater than 1 and 10 displaying ORs less than 1. Most countries (22 of 30) displayed an OR greater than 1 for child mortality (pooled OR = 1.04; 95% CI = 1.02, 1.06). All meta-analyses displayed significant heterogeneity by country. Our analysis is consistent with the theory that livestock may have a dual role as protective against stunting, an indicator of chronic malnutrition, and a risk factor for all-cause mortality in children, which may be linked to acute infections. The heterogeneity by country, however, indicates more data are needed on specific household livestock management practices.

The broad determinants of fertility are thought to be reasonably well identified by demographers, though the detailed quantitative drivers of fertility levels and changes are less well understood. This paper uses a novel ecological index of malaria transmission to study the effect of child mortality on fertility. We find that temporal variation in the ecology of the disease is well-correlated to mortality, and pernicious malaria conditions lead to higher fertility rates. We then argue that most of this effect occurs through child mortality, and estimate the effect of child mortality changes on fertility. Our findings add to the literature on disease and fertility, and contribute to the suggestive evidence that child mortality reductions have a causal effect on fertility changes.

Introduction: Introduction: the current continuity of publications on abandoned children during the Spanish Enlightenment, from the same perspectives of social control that were established at the end of the 20th century, undermines the efforts of some Enlightenment scholars to find artificial nutrition alternatives to breastfeeding through wet nurses. Aim: to analyse the nutritional trials carried out by Joaquín Xavier Úriz (1747-1829) in the Pamplona foundling home. Method: review, analysis and interpretation of his work "Causas prácticas de la muerte de los niños expósitos en sus primeros años", published in 1801. Results: after justifying its necessity, setting out objectives, and designing a controlled experiment, he carried out two trials with infants, one with healthy children using rice water supplements to the wet-nurse's milk and the other with sick children using mixed goat and wet-nurse breastfeeding. Both were initially conducted with one and two subjects, respectively, to be extended after good results to a larger, non-randomised sample (12 subjects in the case of sick children). Although the initial results were inconclusive, a decrease in subsequent infant mortality was noted. Conclusions: the trials are based on the application of a more appreciable scientific method than in didactic texts by more relevant authors, as in the case of Iberti. The prevailing utilitarianism does not hide the value given to the life of the foundling over any other, Úriz being a clear example of the exceptions to the predominantly punitive approach of historiography. The subsequent decline in infant mortality suggests the possibility of a successful cause-effect of the trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundCountdown to 2015 was a multi-institution consortium tracking progress towards Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 4 and 5. Case studies to explore factors contributing to progress (or lack of progress) in reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH) were undertaken in: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Niger, Pakistan, Peru, and Tanzania. This paper aims to identify cross-cutting themes on how and why these countries achieved or did not achieve MDG progress.MethodsApplying a standard evaluation framework, analyses of impact, coverage and equity were undertaken, including a mixed methods analysis of how these were influenced by national context and coverage determinants (including health systems, policies and financing).ResultsThe majority (7/10) of case study countries met MDG-4 with over two-thirds reduction in child mortality, but none met MDG-5a for 75 % reduction in maternal mortality, although six countries achieved >75 % of this target. None achieved MDG-5b regarding reproductive health. Rates of reduction in neonatal mortality were half or less that for post-neonatal child mortality. Coverage increased most for interventions administered at lower levels of the health system (e.g., immunisation, insecticide treated nets), and these experienced substantial political and financial support. These interventions were associated with ~30-40 % of child lives saved in 2012 compared to 2000, in Ethiopia, Malawi, Peru and Tanzania. Intrapartum care for mothers and newborns -- which require higher-level health workers, more infrastructure, and increased community engagement -- showed variable increases in coverage, and persistent equity gaps. Countries have explored different approaches to address these problems, including shifting interventions to the community setting and tasks to lower-level health workers.ConclusionsThese Countdown case studies underline the importance of consistent national investment and global attention for achieving improvements in RMNCH. Interventions with major global investments achieved higher levels of coverage, reduced equity gaps and improvements in associated health outcomes. Given many competing priorities for the Sustainable Development Goals era, it is essential to maintain attention to the unfinished RMNCH agenda, particularly health systems improvements for maternal and neonatal outcomes where progress has been slower, and to invest in data collection for monitoring progress and for rigorous analyses of how progress is achieved in different contexts.

BackgroundIntermittent delivery of piped water can lead to waterborne illness through contamination in the pipelines or during household storage, use of unsafe water sources during intermittencies, and limited water availability for hygiene. We assessed the association between continuous versus intermittent water supply and waterborne diseases, child mortality, and weight for age in Hubli-Dharwad, India.Methods and findingsWe conducted a matched cohort study with multivariate matching to identify intermittent and continuous supply areas with comparable characteristics in Hubli-Dharwad. We followed 3,922 households in 16 neighborhoods with children

Introduction: Prematurity is the leading cause of death and disability in children under 5 years of age. Understanding the molecular mechanisms of the biological processes involved in preterm brain injury may help develop novel neuroprotective treatment strategies. A growing body of evidence suggest that peroxisome proliferator‐activated receptor gamma (PPARγ) signaling is associated with inhibited brain development in preterm babies. The Ala allele of the Pro12Ala polymorphism of PPARγ2 decreases receptor binding affinity and consequently induces a reduction of PPARγ signaling. Methods: In this study, we carried out a preliminary analysis of existing datasets to test the hypothesis that reduced transactivation capacity of PPARγ in the presence of the Ala variant of PPARγ2 may be associated with adverse neurodevelopment in preterm babies. The association between PPAR‐γ2 Pro12Ala polymorphism and neurodevelopment at 18–24 months of age was assessed in two groups of European infants, 155 born before 33 weeks' gestation and 180 born later than 36 weeks' gestation using a linear regression model. The Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development–3rd edition was administered to assess neurodevelopment at 18–24 months of age. Results: We observed the Ala allele of the Pro12Ala polymorphism in 25% preterm infants and 20% term infants. The Ala allele of PPARγ2 was significantly associated with adverse cognitive (p =.019), language (p =.03), and motor development (p = 0.036) at 18–24 months of age after taking into consideration the duration of ventilation, gender, and index of multiple deprivation scores, but without correction for potential shared ancestry. There was no association between the PPAR‐γ2 Pro12Ala polymorphism and neurodevelopment in term infants. Conclusions: These preliminary data suggest that PPARγ signaling in the presence of the Ala variant of PPARγ2 may be associated with adverse neurodevelopment in preterm infants suggesting that further studies are warranted. There are multiple definitions of hyposmia in Parkinson's disease (PD), and subtle differences between them can lead to different and often non‐comparable results. To illustrate the need for a standardised definition of hyposmia in PD, that would adjust for age and gender and account for the background decline in olfactory performance with ageing, this paper compares four published definitions of hyposmia, demonstrating the effect of each definition on the research outcomes when applied to the same cohort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundThe UN will formulate ambitious Sustainable Development Goals for 2030, including one for health. Feasible goals with some quantifiable, measurable targets can influence governments. We propose, as a quatitative health target, "Avoid in each country 40% of premature deaths (under-70 deaths that would be seen in the 2030 population at 2010 death rates), and improve health care at all ages". Targeting overall mortality and improved health care ignores no modifiable cause of death, nor any cause of disability that is treatable (or also causes many deaths). 40% fewer premature deaths would be important in all countries, but implies very different priorities in different populations. Reinforcing this target for overall mortality in each country are four global subtargets for 2030: avoid two-thirds of child and maternal deaths; two-thirds of tuberculosis, HIV, and malaria deaths; a third of premature deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs); and a third of those from other causes (other communicable diseases, undernutrition, and injuries). These challenging subtargets would halve under-50 deaths, avoid a third of the (mainly NCD) deaths at ages 50-69 years, and so avoid 40% of under-70 deaths. To help assess feasibility, we review mortality rates and trends in the 25 most populous countries, in four country income groupings, and worldwide.MethodsUN sources yielded overall 1970-2010 mortality trends. WHO sources yielded cause-specific 2000-10 trends, standardised to country-specific 2030 populations; decreases per decade of 42% or 18% would yield 20-year reductions of two-thirds or a third.ResultsThroughout the world, except in countries where the effects of HIV or political disturbances predominated, mortality decreased substantially from 1970-2010, particularly in childhood. From 2000-10, under-70 age-standardised mortality rates decreased 19% (with the low-income and lower-middle-income countries having the greatest absolute gains). The proportional decreases per decade (2000-10) were: 34% at ages 0-4 years; 17% at ages 5-49 years; 15% at ages 50-69 years; 30% for communicable, perinatal, maternal, or nutritional causes; 14% for NCDs; and 13% for injuries (accident, suicide, or homicide).InterpretationModerate acceleration of the 2000-10 proportional decreases in mortality could be feasible, achieving the targeted 2030 disease-specific reductions of two-thirds or a third. If achieved, these reductions avoid about 10 million of the 20 million deaths at ages 0-49 years that would be seen in 2030 at 2010 death rates, and about 17 million of the 41 million such deaths at ages 0-69 years. Such changes could be achievable by 2030, or soon afterwards, at least in areas free of war, other major effects of political disruption, or a major new epidemic.FundingUK Medical Research Council, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation, Centre for Global Health Research, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BackgroundUp-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries.MethodsWe estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.FindingsGlobal life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100,000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions.InterpretationFor most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

This paper extends Alexandr Chayanov's model of changing household demography (specifically the ratio of food consumers to food producers) and its influence on agricultural behavior so that it includes possible adverse effects of a rising ratio on nutritional status and early childhood mortality within the household. We apply the model to 35 years' worth of longitudinal demographic and economic data collected in the irrigated-rice growing village of Na Savang in northern Laos. When appropriate controls are included for other household variables, unobserved inter-household heterogeneity, and changes in local conditions and national policy over the study period, the analysis suggests that a unit increase in the household's consumer/producer ratio induces something like a nine-fold increase in the risk of death among household members aged less than five years. Monte Carlo simulation studies suggest that this may be an over-estimate but also that the effect is probably real and likely to be an important factor in household demography. At the very least, the results suggest that Chayanov's model still has theoretical relevance and deserves to be revived.

Introduction: Notably, less than two-thirds of under-5 children received full immunization in 2016 in India. It is critical to understand the inequalities in access to immunization for determining an effective health policy agenda to ensure universal health coverage. Hence, we performed a study to assess the determinants of income-based inequality in the full immunization of children aged 12–23 using Fairlie decomposition analysis. Methods: This cross-sectional study was a part of a community-based project that aimed to improve maternal and child health in the backward states of India, namely Bihar and Assam. The study was conducted in the rural and urban areas of Munger and Darrang districts of Bihar and Assam, respectively. The degree of income-related inequality in full immunization coverage was obtained through the concentration index. The Fairlie decomposition was employed to quantify the absolute contribution of socio-demographic factors explaining the group differences (higher or lower income) in the probability of having full immunization. Results: There were 73 fully and 82 non-fully immunized children. The concentration curve was lying above the line of equality, which implied that full immunization coverage was concentrated towards the lower-income group. Maternal education (7.5%) and place of residence (5.1%) widened the inequality gap, and caste (−13.5%) and age of the child (−2.5%) narrowed down the inequality gap for full immunization among lower and higher-income groups. Conclusions: The socio-economic inequalities in access to full immunization can be mitigated by multi-sectoral interventions with a focus on children with less-educated mothers and living in urban slums.