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The science of mountainous hydrology spans the atmosphere through the bedrock and inherently crosses physical and disciplinary boundaries: land-atmosphere interactions in complex terrain enhance clouds and precipitation, while watersheds retain and release water over a large range of spatial and temporal scales. Limited observations in complex terrain challenge efforts to improve predictive models of the hydrology in the face of rapid changes. The Upper Colorado River exemplifies these challenges, especially with ongoing mismatches between precipitation, snowpack, and discharge. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has deployed an observatory to the East River Watershed near Crested Butte, Colorado, between September 2021 and June 2023 to measure the main atmospheric drivers of water resources, including precipitation, clouds, winds, aerosols, radiation, temperature, and humidity. This effort, called the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL), is also working in tandem with DOE-sponsored surface and subsurface hydrologists and other federal, state, and local partners. SAIL data can be benchmarks for model development by producing a wide range of observational information on precipitation and its associated processes, including those processes that impact snowpack sublimation and redistribution, aerosol direct radiative effects in the atmosphere and in the snowpack, aerosol impacts on clouds and precipitation, and processes controlling surface fluxes of energy and mass. Preliminary data from SAIL's first year showcase the rich information content in SAIL's many datastreams and support testing hypotheses that will ultimately improve scientific understanding and predictability of Upper Colorado River hydrology in 2023 and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the accuracy of high-resolution nested mesoscale model simulations of surface climate. The nesting capabilities of the atmospheric fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU)–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) were used to create high-resolution, 5-yr climate simulations (from 1 October 1994 through 30 September 1999), starting with a coarse nest of 20 km for the western United States. During this 5-yr period, two finer-resolution nests (5 and 1.7 km) were run over the Yampa River basin in northwestern Colorado. Raw and bias-corrected daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature time series from the three MM5 nests were used as input to the U.S. Geological Survey’s distributed hydrologic model [the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)] and were compared with PRMS results using measured climate station data. The distributed capabilities of PRMS were provided by partitioning the Yampa River basin into hydrologic response units (HRUs). In addition to the classic polygon method of HRU definition, HRUs for PRMS were defined based on the three MM5 nests. This resulted in 16 datasets being tested using PRMS. The input datasets were derived using measured station data and raw and bias-corrected MM5 20-, 5-, and 1.7-km output distributed to 1) polygon HRUs and 2) 20-, 5-, and 1.7-km-gridded HRUs, respectively. Each dataset was calibrated independently, using a multiobjective, stepwise automated procedure. Final results showed a general increase in the accuracy of simulated runoff with an increase in HRU resolution. In all steps of the calibration procedure, the station-based simulations of runoff showed higher accuracy than the MM5-based simulations, although the accuracy of MM5 simulations was close to station data for the high-resolution nests. Further work is warranted in identifying the causes of the biases in MM5 local climate simulations and developing methods to remove them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep learning (DL)-assisted inverse mapping has shown promise in hydrological model calibration by directly estimating parameters from observations. However, the increasing computational demand for running the state-of-the-art hydrological model limits sufficient ensemble runs for its calibration. In this work, we present a novel knowledge-informed deep learning method that can efficiently conduct the calibration using a few hundred realizations. The method involves two steps. First, we determine decisive model parameters from a complete parameter set based on the mutual information (MI) between model responses and each parameter computed by a limited number of realizations (∼50). Second, we perform more ensemble runs (e.g., several hundred) to generate the training sets for the inverse mapping, which selects informative model responses for estimating each parameter using MI-based parameter sensitivity. We applied this new DL-based method to calibrate a process-based integrated hydrological model, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), at Coal Creek Watershed, CO. The calibration is performed against observed stream discharge (Q) and remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) from the water year 2017 to 2019. Preliminary MI analysis on 50 realizations resulted in a down-selection of 7 out of 14 ATS model parameters. Then, we performed a complete MI analysis on 396 realizations and constructed the inverse mapping from informative responses to each of the selected parameters using a deep neural network. Compared with calibration using observations covering all time steps, the new inverse mapping improves parameter estimations, thus enhancing the performance of ATS forward model runs. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of streamflow predictions increases from 0.53 to 0.8 when calibrating against Q alone. Using ET observations, on the other hand, does not show much improvement on the performance of ATS modeling mainly due to both the uncertainty of the remotely sensed product and the insufficient coverage of the model ET ensemble in capturing the observation. By using observed Q only, we further performed a multiyear analysis and show that Q is best simulated (NSE > 0.8) by including in the calibration the dry-year flow dynamics that show more sensitivity to subsurface characteristics than the other wet years. Moreover, when continuing the forward runs till the end of 2021, the calibrated models show similar simulation performances during this evaluation period as the calibration period, demonstrating the ability of the estimated parameters in capturing climate sensitivity. Our success highlights the importance of leveraging data-driven knowledge in DL-assisted hydrological model calibration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

APEX (A gricultural P olicy/ E nvironmental e X tender) is an oft-used agroecosystem model but has limited use in groundwater-driven watersheds due to a simplistic representation of groundwater processes. This paper presents the linkage of APEX and the groundwater flow model MODFLOW into a single modeling code. The mapping of recharge, groundwater head, and groundwater-surface water interactions are handled internally via subroutines. The APEX-MODFLOW model is applied to three watersheds in the United States for testing code accuracy and hydrologic state variables and fluxes: the Animas River Watershed, Colorado and New Mexico (3543 km2); the Price River Watershed, Utah (4886 km2); and the Middle Bosque River Watershed, Texas (470 km2). Whereas the hydrology of the Animas River and Price River watersheds is driven by snowmelt and spring runoff, the hydrology of the Middle Bosque River Watershed is driven by summer thunderstorms. The model can be used for scenario analysis in groundwater-driven watersheds. • New integrated hydrologic model links APEX model to MODFLOW model. • Model passes recharge, water table elevation, and gw-sw flux rates internally. • APEX-MODFLOW applied to three watersheds in Utah, Colorado, and Texas, USA. • Model results show importance of including physically based groundwater flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling the multidimensional flow of liquid water through snow has been limited in spatial and temporal scales to date. Here, we present simulations using the inverse TOUGH2 (iTOUGH2) model informed by the model SNOWPACK, referred to as SnowTOUGH. We use SnowTOUGH to simulate snow metamorphism, melt/freeze processes, and liquid water movement in two-dimensional snowpacks at the plot scale (20 m) on a sloping ground surface during multi-day observation periods at three field sites in northern Colorado, USA. Model results compare well with sites below the treeline and above the treeline but not at a site near the treeline. Results show the importance of longitudinal intra-snowpack flow paths (i.e., parallel to ground surface in the downslope direction and sometimes referred to as lateral flow), particularly during times when the snow surface (i.e., snow–atmosphere interface) is not actively melting. At our above-treeline site, simulations show that longitudinal flow can occur at rates orders of magnitude greater than vertically downward percolating water flow at a mean ratio of 75:1 as a result of hydraulic barriers that divert flow. Our near-treeline site simulations resulted in slightly less longitudinal flow than vertically percolating water, and the below-treeline site resulted in negligible longitudinal flow of liquid water. These results show the increasing influence of longitudinal intra-snowpack flow paths with elevation, similar to field observations. Results of this study suggest that intra-snowpack longitudinal flow may be an important process for consideration in hydrologic modeling for higher-elevation headwater catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elevated selenium concentrations have been observed in several rivers in the western United States and are a concern for healthy aquatic systems. Water quality modeling is a valuable tool for quantifying the importance of sources and assessing management alternatives for stream standards compliance in basins with impaired water quality. This modeling study uses a relatively simple approach to describe a water distribution system and processes that drive loading of dissolved selenium and salts from the naturally occurring Cretaceous shale soils in the extensively irrigated Uncompahgre and Gunnison River Basins in Western Colorado. Calibrated model output characterizes processes that load an average total of 4,130 kg(9,100 lb) of selenium and 2.9×108 kg(316,000 t) of salts per year from agricultural subbasins to the Uncompahgre River. Simulations of best management practices predict that extensive implementation of methods to minimize seepage and constituent loading would be required to reduce selenium concentrations to comply with the current water quality standards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temporal and spatial differences in snow-water equivalent (SWE) at 240 snow telemetry (SNOTEL) and at 500 snow course sites and a subset of 93 collocated sites were evaluated by examining the correlation of site values over the snow season, interpolating point measurements to basin volumes using hypsometry and a maximum snow extent mask, and variogram analysis. The lowest correlation at a point (r = 0.79) and largest interpolated volume differences (as much as 150 mm of SWE over the Gunnison basin) occurred during wet years (e.g., 1993). Interpolation SWE values based on SNOTEL versus snow course sites were not consistently higher or lower relative to each other. Interpolation rmse was comparable for both datasets, increasing later in the snow season. Snow courses correlate over larger distances and have less short-scale variability than SNOTEL sites, making them more regionally representative. Using both datasets in hydrologic models will provide a range of predicted streamflow, which is potentially useful for water resources management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]