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There has been a lot of interest since the global financial crisis in policies allowing emerging market economies to smooth the effects of the global financial cycle. Although the literature has focused mostly on capital controls emerging market governments have relied mostly on international reserves management. This paper discusses the role of reserves in capital flow management based on a simple welfare-based model of capital flows with international banking frictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following an analysis of the forces behind the so-called "global capital flows paradox" observed in the era of advancing financial globalization, this paper sets out to investigate the opportunity costs of self-insurance through precautionary reserve holdings. We reject the idea of reserves as low-cost protection against the vagaries of global finance. And we also deny that arrangements giving rise to their rapid accumulation may be sustainable in the first place. Alternative policy options open to developing countries are explored, designed to limit both the risks of financial globalization and costs of insurance-type responses. We propose comprehensive capital account management as an alternative to full capital account liberalization. The aims of a permanent regulatory regime of capital controls, both with respect to the aggregate size and the composition of capital flows, are twofold. The first aim is to maintain sufficient macro policy space. The second aim is to assure a good micro fit of external expertise incorporated in FDI with a country's development strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses binary classification trees (BCTs) to predict capital account crises. BCTs successively compare candidate variables and thresholds to split the data into two subsamples, allowing for a large number of indicators to be considered and complex interactions to emerge in a way that standard regressions cannot easily replicate. We identify a robust leading indicator role for three variables (international reserves, current account balance, and short-term external debt) as well as a reserve cover measure that combines them. External indebtedness and domestic GDP growth forecasts are also important predictors of vulnerability. Out of sample, we were able to capture some of the main emerging market crises with relatively few false alarms but the overall out-of-sample performance of our forecasts was mixed. Global cyclical variables help explain vulnerability to crises but they are difficult to predict and, therefore, are of limited use for forecasting purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between financing constraints and investment–cash flow sensitivities by focusing on cash holdings of firms as the main classification variable to separate firms into financially constrained and unconstrained categories. The idea is that high cash reserves increase the ability of firms to undertake profitable investment opportunities. Our classification is based on an optimal cash model, which helps us identify the firms that deviate significantly from their target cash ratio. We conduct the analysis for an emerging market, before and during a financial crisis to test the hypothesis that the hedging role of cash is more critical in states of the world characterized by high asymmetric information and excessive costs of external finance. The results are in line with our expectations and show that constrained firms exhibit greater investment–cash flow sensitivities than unconstrained firms. Also, there is strong evidence that cash stands as an effective device for firms, mainly during the crisis period. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Developing countries’ reserves have increased dramatically in recent years—growing by over 60% since the Asian financial crisis. This paper explores the self-insurance motivation behind this. As a first step, it revisits the literature on international reserve demand. This paper then examines the reserve-holding trends in a sample of 65 developing countries. It seeks to answer the following: Have reserves increased across the board or have these been concentrated in a few countries? If so, does it represent a break in previous policy? At what cost? This paper concludes by briefly examining some policy implications and avenues for future research. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Many emerging market countries have suffered financial crises. One view blames soft pegs for these crises. Adherents of this view suggest that countries move to corner solutions—hard pegs or floating exchange rates. We analyze the behavior of exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates to assess whether there is evidence that country practice is moving toward corner solutions. We focus on whether countries that claim they are floating are indeed doing so. We find that countries that say they allow their exchange rate to float mostly do not—there seems to be an epidemic case of "fear of floating." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stabilization programs in open economies typically consist of two stages. In the first stage the rate of currency devaluation is reduced, but the fiscal adjustment does not eliminate the fiscal deficit that causes growth of debt and loss of reserves, making a future policy change necessary. Only later, at a second stage, is this followed by either an abandonment of exchange rate management or by a sufficiently large cut in the fiscal deficit. We study how different second-stage policy changes affect economic dynamics during the first stage. These changes include tax increases, budget cuts on traded and nontraded goods, and increases in the growth rate of money. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]