Search

With the development of the market economy, agricultural trade has become more and more significant for the development of the agricultural economy, which has triggered people's further thinking and exploration on the impact of agricultural trade on agricultural carbon emissions. This paper takes the measurement of trade implied carbon as the carbon dioxide emission index under the impact of agricultural trade and analyzes the impact of trade implied carbon and implied carbon balance on carbon emission. Taking the impact of Sino-US agricultural trade as an empirical background, this paper measures the impact of environmental changes in agricultural trade opening on China's agricultural development and its carbon emissions, so as to predict changes in China's regional agricultural carbon emissions performance. After calculation, it is found that the scale of China's exports has decreased by 0.089%, which is lower than the decline of 0.361% in the United States. The trade conflict has a significant impact on China's import and export structure. Under the scenario of mutual tariffs on agricultural products, China's exports to the United States are expected to decrease by 6.28%, while China's imports from the United States decreased by 13.02%. The Sino-US agricultural trade dispute will reduce China's carbon emissions by 0.013% and the United States' carbon emissions by 0.024%, which is related to the negative impact on the economy. Improving the performance of agricultural carbon emissions is not only the need for the green and sustainable development of the agricultural economy but also conducive to improving the international competitiveness of agricultural products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses economics research and teaching frameworks in the United States by examining how knowledge is produced; the strengths and flaws of heterodox economic theory; and how students are trained, especially for careers in economic policy. We challenge the meaning of established terminology such as ‘heterodoxy’ and ‘mainstream.’ Three major reasons are suggested for the disappointing reality that pluralist economics among academic institutions, the broader public, and a new generation of economists has not happened: 1) neoclassical hegemony; 2) weakness in heterodox theory, and 3) rigidity of pedagogy and training in economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a list of titles of Working Papers on business and economy in the U.S. "Data Revisions and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks," by Dean Croushore and Charles L. Evans; "Non-Exclusive Contracts, Collateralized Trade, and a Theory of Exchange," by Yaron Leitner; "The Rise of the Skilled City," by Edward L. Glaeser and Albert Saiz.

This paper aims to investigate the responsiveness of renewable energy production (REP) to fluctuations in geopolitical risks, oil prices and economic policy uncertainty (EPU). It applies a cross-quantilogram framework to examine monthly data of the US economy for the period of 1986–2022. The findings illustrate the asymmetric effect of historical geopolitical risk (GPRH) on REP under long memory. The findings also hold after different subcategories of GPRH, including geopolitical threats and geopolitical acts, are considered. A positive shock in GPRH has the most decisive positive impact on REP when the policies are driven by both energy security and environmental commitments. A positive shock in GPRH can negatively impact REP when policies are driven by energy security causes only. EPU exerts strong negative effects on REP in bearish and bullish states of the market under medium and long memory across different measures of EPU. Dynamic connectedness analysis applying TVP-VAR method between pairwise variables indicates that net REP is a volatility receiver to the changes in GPRH, its subcomponents, oil prices and different measures of EPU. [Display omitted] • Application of cross-quantilogram approach to US monthly data during 1986–2022. • Responsiveness of renewable energy production to historical geopolitical risk. • A positive shock in GPRH has asymmetric effects on REP in long memory. • This nexus is sensitive to the motivation of energy policies in US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic crises can be analyzed as part of the economic cycle and from different theoretical perspectives. The article considers economic crises or recessions, in general, as capitalism's own mechanisms to alleviate its contradictions and restore, at least partially, the previous accumulated imbalances. The period 1970 to 2020 covers eight economic crises, some of which determine changes in the internal structure, economic policy trends and the functioning of the U.S. economy, as the main center of the world economy. The purpose of this paper is to examine the set of economic crises of the last fifty years in a panoramic manner, to evaluate them as part of the process of major economic transformations and associated economic policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the benefits and costs of state suppression policies to "bend the curve" during the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States. We employ an approach that values benefits and costs in terms of additions or subtractions to total production. Relative to a baseline in which only the infected and at-risk populations mitigate the spread of coronavirus, we estimate that total benefits of suppression policies to economic output are between $632.5 billion and $765.0 billion from early March 2020 to August 1, 2020. Relative to private mitigation, output lost due to suppression policies is estimated to be between $214.2 billion and $331.5 billion. The cost estimate is based on the duration of nonessential business closures and stay-at-home orders, which were enforced between 42 and 65 days. Our results indicate that the net benefits of suppression policies to slow the spread of COVID-19 are positive and may be substantial. We discuss uncertainty surrounding several parameters and employ alternative methods for valuing mortality benefits, which also suggest that suppression measures had positive net benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since January 2020, the U.S. has had over 150,000 deaths attributed to the Coronavirus, and morbidity and mortality rates continue to rise. In the United States, minorities are more likely to die from COVID-19 than other populations - a fact that further solidifies the disparate nature of race and ethnicity relative to one's health and the inequities in care. COVID-19 has not struck all equally because our economic and social policies have not benefited all equally. This paper introduces a new model, the political determinants of health, which focuses on their role in creating, perpetuating, and exacerbating health inequities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical abstract Highlights • Technology cost and utility rate structure are key drivers of economic viability of solar and storage systems. • Solar-plus-storage systems are more often economical under time of use and demand charge rates. • Savings from storage-only projects come mainly from demand charge reductions; solar combined with storage also provides energy charge savings. • Savings from solar with storage is largely independent of building load variability, likely due to the energy cost reductions from the solar. Abstract This paper explores the economics of solar-plus-storage projects for commercial-scale, behind-the-meter applications. It provides insight into the near-term and future solar-plus-storage market opportunities across the U.S. We explore the impacts of location, building load profile, technology cost, utility rate structure, and policies on solar-plus-storage economic viability, and identify which factors are most significant to project economics. While savings from storage-only projects are largely derived from demand charge reductions, solar combined with storage also provides significant energy charge savings. A common assumption is that load profiles with peaks are likely candidates for savings from storage, due to the opportunity for demand charge reduction. Our results indicate that potential for savings from combining solar with storage is independent of building load variability, likely due to the energy cost reductions from the solar. Systems are more often economical under time of use and demand charge rates, particularly when demand charges are >$10 per kilowatt. Where systems were found to be economical, expected lifetime savings averaged between 7%–10%, with savings of 30% in numerous cases. Near term markets exist for solar-plus-storage in locations such as California and New York. As technology prices drop, the number of building types that can benefit increase, and additional markets appear in Colorado, New Mexico, and Alaska. All data from the study and interactive modeling results are available at: https://openei.org/wiki/Solar+Storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) was designed to reveal the economic, social, and environmental trade-offs associated with conventional economic growth as traditionally measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Although originally designed for use at the national scale, an interest has developed in the United States in a state-level uptake of the GPI to inform and guide policy. This study presents the first fifty-state estimate for U.S. GPI in order to address questions over its design, implementation, and ultimate potential as a tool to guide state-level economic policy. Following a review of the current state of analysis and critique of GPI, we provide an overview of methodology and database development. Results are then presented, including discussion of lessons learned through a fifty-state application. The paper concludes with suggestions for further research and next steps to consolidating a consistent methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term Load Forecasting (LTLF) plays a vital role in the planning of electric utilities. In the long run, utilities face various uncertainties caused by economic and environmental factors. These uncertainties have made LTLF more complex and inaccurate, thus, amplifying financial risks of utilities. A potent contributor to such losses in LTLF accuracy is economic shocks. This study proposes two probabilistic Time-Varying (TV) approaches to capture such shocks in LTLF and minimise accuracy loss, namely TV-XGB-X and TV-PR, and their combinations considering economic policy uncertainty. Both eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and Polynomial Regression (PR) are extended to include the long-run TV effects of economic shocks as eXogeneous predictors in this paper. These models and their combinations are compared with various non-TV approaches through experiments on the monthly electricity consumption of eight energy-intensive states in the United States. The results reveal that the proposed combined approaches outperform stand-alone models on all datasets. The findings of this study can help utilities in hedging financial risks under shocks. • Proposed Time-Varying framework to detect and capture economic shocks for LTLF. • Framework includes probabilistic TV-PR, TV-XGB-X, their variants and combinations. • Compared the point and probabilistic accuracies of proposed and benchmark models. • Proposed models outperform existing benchmark models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents new findings from the World Top Incomes Database and discusses some of their policy implications. In particular, the paper provides updated top income series for the United States-including new estimates through 2010, showing a strong rebound of the top 1 percent income share, following the 2008-09 sharp fall. It also presents updated income series for other developed countries (including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan) and new series on wealth-income ratios. In light of this extended set of country series, the paper analyzes the relative importance of market and institutional forces in explaining observed cross-country trends, and the likely impact of the Great recession on these long-term evolutions. It discusses the policy implications of the findings, both in terms of optimal tax policy and regarding the interplay between inequality and macroeconomic fragility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a global input-output framework to quantify U.S. and European Union (EU) demand spillovers and the elasticity of world trade to GDP during the global recession of 2008-09. Cross-border intermediate goods linkages have implications for the transmission of shocks and the relationship between demand, trade, and production across countries. This paper finds that 20-30 percent of the decline in U.S. and EU final demand was borne by foreign countries, with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and emerging Europe hit hardest. Allowing final demand to change in all countries simultaneously, the framework presented here delivers an elasticity of world trade to GDP of 2.8. Thus, demand forces alone can account for roughly 70 percent of the trade collapse. Large changes in demand for durables play an important role in driving these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a generalization of the formulas proposed by Kuttner (2001) and others for purposes of measuring the effects of a change in the federal funds target on Treasury yields of different maturities. The generalization avoids the need to condition on the date of the target change and allows for deviations of the effective fed funds rate from the target as well as gradual learning by market participants about the target. The paper shows that parameters estimated solely on the basis of the behavior of the fed funds and fed funds futures can account for the broad calendar regularities in the relation between fed funds futures and Treasury yields of different maturities. Although the methods are new, the conclusion is quite similar to that reported by earlier researchers—changes in the fed funds target seem to be associated with quite large changes in Treasury yields, even for maturities of up to 10 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monetary policy analysts often rely on rules of thumb, such as the Taylor rule, to describe historical monetary policy decisions and to compare current policy with historical norms. Analysis along these lines also permits evaluation of episodes where policy may have deviated from a simple rule and examination of the reasons behind such deviations. One interesting question is whether such rules of thumb should draw on policymakers' forecasts of key variables, such as inflation and unemployment, or on observed outcomes. Importantly, deviations of the policy from the prescriptions of a Taylor rule that relies on outcomes may be the result of systematic responses to information captured in policymakers' own projections. This paper investigates this proposition in the context of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decisions over the past 20 years, using publicly available FOMC projections from the semiannual monetary policy reports to Congress (Humphrey-Hawkins reports). The results indicate that FOMC decisions can indeed be predominantly explained in terms of the FOMC's own projections rather than observed outcomes. Thus, a forecast-based rule of thumb better characterizes FOMC decisionmaking. This paper also confirms that many of the apparent deviations of the federal funds rate from an outcome-based Taylor-style rule may be considered systematic responses to information contained in FOMC projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the history of the federal regulatory oversight of plant agricultural biotechnology in the USA, focusing on the scientific and political forces moulding the continually evolving regulatory structure in place today. Unlike most other jurisdictions, the USA decided to adapt pre-existing legislation to encompass products of biotechnology. In so doing, it established an overarching committee (Office of Science and Technology Policy) to study and distribute various regulatory responsibilities amongst relevant agencies: the Food and Drug Administration, Environmental Protection Agency and US Department of Agriculture. This paper reviews the history and procedures of each agency in the execution of its regulatory duties and investigates the advantages and disadvantages of the US regulatory strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the controversial issue of regional development incentives. Although extensive research has been conducted, a review of the literature gives an inconclusive answer to whether economic incentives are effective. Why do researchers arrive at different conclusions, even after analysing the same programmes? Among the problems that we find, for example, is the fact that for some researchers ‘effective’ means the significant location of new firms in targeted areas, while for others the creation of jobs regardless of whether new firms are arriving in a significant fashion. Furthermore, as we elaborate, the selection of an econometric model will have a significant impact on expected results. Different models, with different limitations, will lead researchers to evaluate the same incentive programme but arrive at different conclusions regarding its effectiveness. The contribution of the paper is to inform policymakers about the potential opportunities and pitfalls when designing incentive strategies. This is particularly relevant, given that both the US and Europe have been promoting incentives as a tool for regional economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the developmental trade-offs involved in multilateral versus regional-bilateral strategies of integration into the international economy. I contrast the regulations that guide policy in the areas of trade, investment, and intellectual property in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and in regional-bilateral agreements between the US and developing countries. Both strategies of integration feature similar trade-offs, in that developing countries gain increased market access and opportunities for specialization in exchange for diminished space for use of industrial policy instruments to create new productive capacities. However, the trade-offs are intensified in the case of regional-bilateral agreements: countries receive more market access, but in exchange make significantly deeper concessions regarding the management of inward investment and intellectual policy. I argue that countries whose integration into the international economy is guided by their obligations as members of the WTO still have opportunities to implement industrial strategies that are designed to alter comparative advantages and achieve upward mobility in the international economic order, but the obligations under the regional-bilateral strategy greatly circumscribe these options. The paper thus points to the need for new terms of reference in the debate over ‘policy space’ in the international political economy. In analyzing contemporary development strategies, the most useful contrast is not between the alternatives that countries have under the WTO and the alternatives that countries had in the past under the WTO's predecessors, but between a constraining multilateral environment and even more constraining regional and bilateral environments that condition increased market access on the sacrifice of the very tools that countries have historically used to capture the developmental benefits of integration into the international economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strategic planning started in the U.S. as a corporate planning endeavor. By the 1960's, it had become a major corporate management tool in the Fortune 500. At fi rst, it was seen as a way of interweaving policies, values and purposes with management, resources and market information in a way that held the organization together. By the 1950's, the concept was simplified somewhat to focus on SWOT as a way of keeping the corporation afloat in a more turbulent world. The public sector has been under pressure for a long time to become more efficient, effective and responsive. Many have felt that the adoption of business practices would help to accomplish that. One tool borrowed from business has been strategic planning. At the local government level, strategic planning became popular starting in the 1980's, and the community's planning office was called on to lead the endeavor. The planning office was often the advocate of the process. Urban planning offices had been doing long-range plans for decades, but with accelerating urban change a more rapid action-oriented response was desired. The paper describes this history and process in the East Lansing, Michigan, U.S., where comprehensive community plans are the result of a multi-year visioning process and call for action- oriented, strategies for targeted parts of the community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that the US economy is not entering a new era of prosperity, mainly because the rote of profit remains 30-40% below its earlier postwar peaks, in spite of a 20% reduction of real wages since the early 1970s Under these conditions, real wages are unlikely to increase very much (if at all) in the years ahead. The paper also argues that an important reason for the acceleration of growth in the US economy since 1995 is a large and rapidly increasing net inflow of foreign capital (which also precipitated the worsening depression in Asia).The final section argues that the chances of a recession in the US in 1999 are high, and that such a depression would probably propel the world capitalist economy into deep depression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Four essentially independent conceptions of the population problem are visible in current discussions. One is derived from macroeconomics, one from microeconomics, one from the health sciences, and one from ethical concerns about the just relation between man and nature. After describing these conceptions, this paper addresses the population problem principally using the economic definitions. It cites five reasons why discussions of the economic hazards posed by population growth have become markedly less alarmist in the past decade. Failures of highly quantified input-output models to account for human progress are emphasized. The paper presents examples of how technical demography has shed light on the dimensions of and solutions to the population problem and concludes with a brief discussion of contemporary population problems in the U.S. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of several policy distortions, including import-substitution industrialization, widespread government intervention, and both domestic and international competitive barriers, there has been a general presumption that Latin America has been much less productive than the leading economies in the last decades. In this paper we show, however, that until the late 1970s Latin American countries had high productivity levels relative to the United States. It is only after the late 1970s that we observe a fast decrease of relative total factor productivity (TFP) in Latin America. We also show that the inclusion of human capital in the production function makes a crucial difference in the TFP calculations for Latin America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Though almost no postwar union contracts indexed wage rates to prices of the employer's products, union agreements linking wage rates to product prices, known as sliding scales, were common in some industries in the United States and Britain from the 1860s through the 1930s. This paper explains why sliding scales disappeared after the 1930s, and examines what practical experience with sliding scales revealed about fundamental constraints on wage indexation. Paradoxically, the history of sliding scales confirms that workers' information about product prices and materials costs is generally imperfect, in ways that would substantially constrain wage indexation in long-term contracts. Sliding scales were not indexed long-term contracts, but rather devices to forestall costly strikes in the absence of contracts by revealing employers' private information about product demand. In the postwar US, unions and employers failed to link wage rates to product prices because they had gained the ability to enter binding contracts, which could achieve the benefits of preventing strikes without incurring the extra negotiation costs and information problems associated with product-price indexation. I present a model to show how sliding scales could forestall strikes by revealing information, and how the introduction of binding union contracts reduced incentives to link wages to product prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global financial downturn of 2001 affected broad swaths of the increasingly interconnected global economy. The global effects of the economic downturn in the U.S. in 2008 showed that decoupling had not occurred to the extent many thought, and showed that indeed emerging market countries, including Turkey, were not immune from economic trouble in America. This paper addresses the question, whether the fiscal, financial, and regulatory reforms in Turkey after the 2001 economic crisis cushion the global financial crisis world is facing toward the end of the decade. In doing so we analyze the policies implemented by Turkey before and after the 2001 global economic crisis and identify the successes as well as failures of those reforms. The results of our research show that despite significant reforms in key economic and regulatory areas in the post-2001 crisis period, vulnerabilities remained; especially concerning the large current account deficit, volatility of exchange rates, increased private sector indebtedness, and persistent unemployment. These vulnerabilities will be visible in the deteriorating liquidity conditions in the global financial markets. We conclude by recommending infrastructure, education and health spending as well as restructuring of the economy to further attract FDI and avoid reliance on speculative foreign capital in order to achieve a more balanced and sustained growth in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inflation targets: lessons from the Greenspan era. This paper approaches the experience of monetary policy in the Greenspan period and suggests what lessons could be learnt. The adoption of inflation targeting would denote a step backward in the policymaking process in the USA, for, since the 1980s, a distinctive feature is flexibility of response to adjust to unexpected events and changing environments. The Fed was able to exercise an informed judgement in critical situations and this opens the case for the importance of not restraining policymakers' actions through the adoption of tight rules. Furthermore, that the various experiences with inflation targeting are indisputably huge successes, and that this framework represents the state of the art (therefore nothing else can alternatively be done), remains to be seen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last two centuries, the reallocation of labor out of agriculture has been a dominant feature of structural change and economic growth in the United States. This paper uses an accounting framework founded in economic theory to decompose this reallocation into three components: a demand-side effect due to the low income elasticity of demand for agricultural goods (Engel effect), and two supply-side effects, one due to differential sectoral productivity growth rates (Baumol effect), and the other to differential capital deepening. The results show that the Engel effect accounts for almost all labor reallocation until the 1950s, after which the Baumol effect becomes a key determinant. Our framework provides a unified account of long-run structural change, and demonstrates that historical interpretations and theoretical models that emphasize only one dimension of this process cannot properly account for the dramatic history of labor reallocation in the United States. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Over the late 1970s, U.S. macroeconomic policy underwent a major shift, rejecting incomes policies and accepting macroeconomic restraint as the primary means to holding down inflation and strengthening the dollar. In conventional narratives, this shift is cast as a response to the diminishing effectiveness of incomes policies and the fundamental importance of macroeconomic restraint in maintaining monetary stability. However, such accounts obscure the interpretive context in which these shifts occurred, as beliefs regarding the limits of incomes policies and the need for restraint took on "lives of their own." In this paper, I examine the intersubjective context of these policy shifts, addressing not only the domestic context of debates over wage-price trends, but also German pressure on U.S. policy, and the key influence of Chancellor Helmut Schmidt in urging U.S. oil deregulation and monetary restraint. I specifically highlight interactions in the context of the 1977 London and 1978 Bonn summits and the 1979 World Bank-IMF meetings. Taken as a whole, this effort highlights the intersubjective context of domestic-systemic debates, as liberalizing pressures reflected not only domestic pressures from within U.S. society but also external German influences, as together mediated by key U.S. policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates a Bayesian vector autoregression for the U.S. economy that includes a housing sector and addresses the following questions: Can developments in the housing sector be explained on the basis of developments in real and nominal gross domestic product and interest rates? What are the effects of housing demand shocks on the economy? How does monetary policy affect the housing market? What are the implications of house price developments for the stance of monetary policy? Regarding the latter question, we implement a Céspedes et al. (2006) version of a monetary conditions index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the macroeconomics of the oil price for the United States. It investigates the impact of large oil price hikes in a standard VAR framework by introducing a new Markov switching based oil price specification. The explanatory power of this new specification is compared to that of a number of prominent non-linear specifications. The key findings are: (1) the new oil price specification is appropriate in both empirical and theoretical terms and allows for a well-founded distinction between "large" and "normal" oil price increases. (2) The observed impact of oil price shocks on real GDP growth is largely attributable to no fewer than three large oil price increases, namely those of 1973-74, 1979 and 1991, while variables such as consumer and import prices are also affected by normal oil price increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper sets out an improved framework for examining critical junctures. This framework, while rigorous and broadly applicable and an advance on the frameworks currently employed, primarily seeks to incorporate an a priori element. Until now the frameworks utilized in examining critical junctures were entirely postdictive. Adding a predictive element to the concept will constitute a significant advance. The new framework, and its predictive element, termed the "differentiating factor," is tested here in examining macro-economic crises and subsequent changes in macro-economic policy, in America and Sweden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper addresses why neoliberal policies of the United States have failed to spur broad-based economic development, and why they have not consolidated stable liberal democracy in Latin America. The author argues that the United States must reevaluate its foreign policy in order to accomplish its goals and maintain its influence in the region. This will mean engaging more moderate leftist leaders in Latin America and adopting changes to its trade policy. Above all, the United States should not revert back to its unilateral interventionist policies of the past. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper, using extensive archival material from several countries, brings together scattered information about Milton Friedman's views and predictions regarding U.S. monetary policy developments after 1960 (i.e., the period beyond that covered by his and Anna Schwartz's Monetary History of the United States). The author evaluates these interpretations and predictions in light of subsequent events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper conducts an econometric test of Diamond and Dybvig’s [Diamond, D., Dybvig, P., 1983. Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity. Journal of Political Economy 91, 401–420] theory of bank runs as interpreted by Chari [Chari, V.V., 1989. Banking without deposit insurance or banks panics: lessons from a model of the U.S. national banking system. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 13, 3–19] and Calomiris and Gorton [Calomiris, C., Gorton, G., 1991. Origins of banking panics: models, facts, and bank regulation. In: Hubbard, R.G. (Ed.), Financial Markets and Financial Crises. NBER and Univ. Chicago press, Chicago, pp. 109–173]. We test whether or not seasonal deposit drains on New York banks coincide with the bank panics of 1873 and 1893 in the United States. We use individual bank level data to illuminate the reason for withdrawals. The evidence reveals that the panic of 1873 could have included a seasonal interior drain. A seasonal interpretation of Diamond and Dybvig’s model cannot be applied to the bank panic of 1893. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This perspective paper reviews and critiques the policy analysis and modeling of future natural gas markets in the National Petroleum Council's 2003 natural gas study (NPC Study). The NPC Study provided an important and timely review of long-term natural gas supply, demand and potential policies to increase supply or suppress demand. However, its long-term scenarios used assumptions and .simplifications that led to understating likely longer-term market reactions to higher natural gas prices, which results in exaggeration of the potential benefits of the policies recommended by the NPC. In addition, the narrow scope of the NPC Study did not address many important considerations in natural gas policy, such as the costs of recommended policies, or their impacts on taxpayers, resource owners, or the environment. Overall, the study does not provide the evidence needed to justify major natural gas policies, especially in view of the current uncertain market environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the recent history of State-level policies in the United States for knowledge-based economic development, and identifies an emerging model based on technology creation. This new model goes beyond traditional investments in technology transfer and prioritizes cutting-edge scientific research in economically relevant fields. As research-intensive universities are indispensable for technology creation, these policies have yielded substantial new investments in university science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under George W. Bush, the United States has chosen to revolutionize world affairs by abandoning successful forms of hegemonic governance, based on the institutionalization of collective economic and security regimes, in favor of militarism, or the pursuit of global domination through force. Starting from a critique of structuralist approaches, this paper examines the ideational transformation of the American right and situates it within the context of the US's emergence in 1991 as a unipolar strategic actor and as the core state in the newly globalized capitalist political economy. While these synchronous transformations considerably augmented America's autonomy, giving the US the opportunity to reconfigure the world system to its advantage, one must distinguish between the current imperial expansionism of the revived and expanded US national security state and earlier forms of US hegemonic rule. The aim: to account for a fundamental shift of the way in which the US has governed the capitalist world system since 1945. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to the recent spate of financial crises in East Asia (1997-98), the IMF has established a core set of international standards to regulate market behaviour in the global South. These standards are embodied in 11 modules that comprise the IMF's Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSCs). Both content and form of the ROSCs warrant further consideration. That said, the main objective of this paper is to explain how and why one particular ROSC, namely corporate governance, has become standardised. And, more importantly, to address the question of whose interests are served. In doing so the essay suggests that, despite the claim that the international standard of corporate governance embodies 'universal principles', the definition advanced in the ROSes intentionally draws on the Anglo-American variant. This imposed standardisation of corporate governance serves two overlapping goals. First, it seeks to stabilise the international financial system by ensuring that emerging markets adhere to the principles of a neoliberal open market economy. Second, by placing a greater emphasis on 'shareholder value' than other types of corporate governance, it protects the interests of institutional investors based in market-centric systems such as that of the USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sino-US agreement regarding China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in late 1999 came as a surprise to many observers. How and why did the Chinese reach the agreement in view of the impasses in the negotiation that occurred earlier in the year? These impasses included the collapse of the WTO talks during Zhu's visit to the USA in April, the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in May, and the deadlock between the Chinese and US negotiators in November. Drawing on published sources as well as experts' insights, this paper examines the Chinese leadership's decision-making process and its reasons for concluding the agreement. It suggests that the exclusive decision-making circle of top Chinese leaders circumvented the opposition to the agreement and facilitated the negotiations. These leaders, especially Jiang and Zhu, favoured an agreement because they believed WTO membership could improve China's international relations, trade conditions, the outcomes of reform at home, and China's leverage over Taiwan. The closed decision making on the WTO also left the Chinese leaders with a challenging task: educating officials and the population about the WTO rules and possible impacts while ensuring that they abide by the rules. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years the American states have begun to adopt new types of economic development policies, variously called "demand side" policies, industrial policy, or interventionist policy. In this paper the authors discuss the emergence of these policies and the political and economic changes in states which led to their consideration. Two explanations for their adoption are developed--the business capture hypothesis and the meso-corporatist hypothesis. These differing interpretations are tested with data on state interest groups, government capacity, and economic stress. Data on policy adoptions by 1986 show that the meso-corporatist model provides a better account of industrial policy than does the business capture hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we explore the intersection of the modern-stare and fieldwork practices within the social sciences. Our contention is that during the past decade or so there has been an expansion in forbidden or restricted research terrain that threatens the present and future conduct of social research. We argue that this restriction has been engendered by two related developments: privatization and human subjects regulations. The social and political implications of these trends are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article highlights the concept of political economy coined by well-known socio-economist Horace Greeley. Historians of economic thought, in customarily appointing Henry C. Carey dean of the American School, have generally neglected the high spokesman of discontent, Horace Greeley, founder and editor of the "New York Tribune." Horace Greeley's life and political economy stand out as clearer expressions of a young America in its middle period transition. Greeley was an awakened figure of his time. Never the totally eccentric dreamer he is frequently considered, he found himself aware that narrow parochialisms were breaking up, and he aimed to conform society to the changes under way. He saw his country as the great chance for righting wrongs- and he wished to make it a proving ground for social experimentation. Thus, he devoted his life and his paper to teaching the people to seek freedom by building a wealthy nation in which resources should be correctly utilized and special privileges should be destroyed.

The article informs that the American political tradition and the antitrust laws make competitive free enterprise both a norm in practice and an ideal of national policy. Those who favor this policy do so on various grounds. They believe that rivalry among competing sellers will lead to improvement of product and reduced prices. The downward pressure on selling prices will also compel a striving for increased efficiency and reduced costs. It is the purpose of this paper to review the work of these administrative agencies and the courts in formulating national economic policy in this area. The central and recurrent problem will be the relative weight to be accorded to the policy of maintaining competition in an industry which by hypothesis is to be governed by competition only to a limited extent.

The article presents response of the author on comments made by Lewis E. Hill on the papers "Toward a Reconciliation of Institutional Economics and Its Critics" and "Beyond the Market Economy Building Institutions That Work," by Clarence E. Ayres that were published in the March 1970 issue of the periodical "Social Science Quarterly." Under appropriate arrangements for doing things, that is, under an appropriate institutional structure, the propensity to truck and barter naturally entails the creation of markets, which are themselves arrangements for effecting exchange. In the U.S., the institutional structure is such that markets permeate most of the economy. For example, in August 1970, nearly 84 per cent of total civilian employment was in the private sector, all of which consists of regulated and more or less unregulated markets. Thus, employing scholar Robert L. Heilbroner's system of classification, the economy of the U.S. would be appropriately designated as essentially a market system, as the author did in his introduction to Ayres' classic. "Institutionalism and Economic Development." But Ayres objects to him, that the U.S. economy is an industrial economy. Unfortunately, his is not intended to be a cross-classification, which, if correct, would be a suitable complement rather than a substitute for the one that the author employed, since Ayres says prefatorily, and the author flatly denies that the U.S. economy is a market economy.

We examine empirically whether asset prices and exchange rates may be admitted into a standard interest rate rule, using data for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan since 1979. Asset prices and exchange rates can be employed as information variables for a standard "Taylor-type" rule or as arguments in an augmented interest rate rule. Our empirical evidence, based on measures of the output gap proxied by marginal cost calculations, suggests that monetary policy- makers may use asset prices and exchange rates not only as part of their information set for setting interest rates, but also to set interest rates to offset deviations of asset prices or exchange rates from their equilibrium levels. These results are open to several alternative interpretations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents response of the author on comments made by Lewis E. Hill on the papers "Toward a Reconciliation of Institutional Economics and Its Critics" by Coldwell Daniel and "Beyond the Market Economy Building Institutions That Work" that were published in the March 1970 issue of the periodical "Social Science Quarterly." Hill's Comment on the exchange between Daniel and the author is perfectly right in pointing out that he gave no reasons for insisting that theirs is an industrial economy rather than a market economy, as Daniel has declared. If it is not too late, the author would like to repair that omission. In various important senses theirs is of course a market economy. Obviously buying and selling go on almost everywhere and almost all the time; and scholar Karl Polanyi was quite right in pointing out that ours is the only economy in history in which buying and selling have been as general and as significant as they are today throughout the Western world--or at least throughout the free world. The question is: significant of what? Many writers have maintained that freedom to buy and sell is the quintessence of freedom, and that people who do not enjoy this freedom are not free. This may be true. But it is not the whole story. In particular it is not the whole story of economic development. Such freedom --the market may have been a necessary condition but not the determinant of the modern Western economy.