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Public debt, government current account saving and primary surplus: analysis of sustainability. On this paper, we propose a change in the primary surplus' target by the government current account saving. That concept excludes public investment from primary surplus. However, of that change has raised a question about if government current account saving represents a sustainable fiscal policy. Thus, this paper analyses if the change in the primary surplus' target by the government current account saving implies a meaning modification on the debt-to-GDP ratio path. The empirical analysis, which is based on Brazilian monthly data for the period 1999-2005, suggests that the change in fiscal target does not mean a lack of sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite plausible theoretical grounds for presuming a positive relationship between foreign direct investment inflows (FDI) and economic growth, existing empirical evidence on this nexus is inconclusive. In an effort to add to the empirical literature, this paper estimates the relationship between FDI and the rate of growth of GDP using a stochastic frontier model and employing panel data covering 45 countries over the period 1997 to 2004. We find that FDI inflows exert a positive impact on economic growth only in the presence of a highly skilled labour; corruption has a negative impact on economic growth; and trade openness increases economic growth by means of efficiency gains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Capital account liberalization and economic growth: evidences from data in Latin-American panel. The aim of this paper is to carry out an empirical analysis about the relation between Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Growth having as object of study the experience of 16 countries of Latin America with annual data for the period 1986-2000. The econometrical calculations do not corroborate the hypothesis that the liberalization of Capital Account would stimulate the economic growth. The results suggest an adverse effect of the liberalization of the Capital Account on the real growth gross domestic product per capita of the countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the probability density forecasts reflected in the Bank of England's real GDP growth fan charts. Evaluation is carried out using tests that allow for data dependence and using two GDP growth estimates. Results suggest there are problems with the shorter horizon forecasts, but conclusions about the performance of longer-term forecasts depend to some extent on the GDP estimates used in the assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on autoregressive models produces estimates of the output gap that are strongly at odds with widely held beliefs about transitory movements in economic activity. This is due to parameter estimates implying a high signal-to-noise ratio in terms of the variance of trend shocks as a fraction of the overall forecast error variance. When we impose a lower signal-to-noise ratio, the resulting Beveridge-Nelson filter produces a more intuitive estimate of the output gap that is large in amplitude and highly persistent, and it typically increases in expansions and decreases in recessions. Notably, our approach is also reliable in the sense of being subject to smaller revisions and predicting future output growth and inflation better than other trend-cycle decompositions that impose a low signal-to-noise ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article highlights the economic conditions of Canada as of 2004. Capped by a 0.5 percent gain in December, real gross domestic products rose 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter, after virtually no growth over the previous two quarters. The fourth-quarter rebound returned Canada to among the growth leaders in the G7, matching the U.S. and Great Britain and markedly better than the average 0.3 percent gain in continental Europe. Only Japan posted faster growth, although its 1.6 percent increase was tainted by a 1.1 percent drop in prices.