38 results on '"CLIMATE change mitigation"'
Search Results
2. Neutralizing misinformation through inoculation: Exposing misleading argumentation techniques reduces their influence.
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Cook, John, Lewandowsky, Stephan, and Ecker, Ullrich K. H.
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CLIMATE change mitigation , *COMMON misconceptions , *ANTHROPOGENIC effects on nature , *PHYSIOLOGICAL effects of global warming , *CLIMATOLOGY , *GOVERNMENT policy - Abstract
Misinformation can undermine a well-functioning democracy. For example, public misconceptions about climate change can lead to lowered acceptance of the reality of climate change and lowered support for mitigation policies. This study experimentally explored the impact of misinformation about climate change and tested several pre-emptive interventions designed to reduce the influence of misinformation. We found that false-balance media coverage (giving contrarian views equal voice with climate scientists) lowered perceived consensus overall, although the effect was greater among free-market supporters. Likewise, misinformation that confuses people about the level of scientific agreement regarding anthropogenic global warming (AGW) had a polarizing effect, with free-market supporters reducing their acceptance of AGW and those with low free-market support increasing their acceptance of AGW. However, we found that inoculating messages that (1) explain the flawed argumentation technique used in the misinformation or that (2) highlight the scientific consensus on climate change were effective in neutralizing those adverse effects of misinformation. We recommend that climate communication messages should take into account ways in which scientific content can be distorted, and include pre-emptive inoculation messages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2017
- Full Text
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3. Current surveys may underestimate climate change skepticism evidence from list experiments in Germany and the USA
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Thomas Bernauer and Liam F. Beiser-McGrath
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Atmospheric Science ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Social Sciences ,Surveys ,Public opinion ,01 natural sciences ,Geographical locations ,Governments ,Social desirability bias ,Psychological Attitudes ,Germany ,Surveys and Questionnaires ,050602 political science & public administration ,Psychology ,10. No inequality ,media_common ,Climatology ,education.field_of_study ,Multidisciplinary ,05 social sciences ,Politics ,1. No poverty ,0506 political science ,Europe ,Research Design ,Medicine ,GE Environmental Sciences ,Research Article ,Political Parties ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Science ,Climate Change ,Political Science ,Population ,J Political Science ,Climate change ,Public policy ,Public Policy ,Research and Analysis Methods ,Political science ,Development economics ,European Union ,education ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Skepticism ,Survey Research ,business.industry ,Global warming ,Biology and Life Sciences ,United States ,Climate change mitigation ,13. Climate action ,North America ,Earth Sciences ,Anthropogenic Climate Change ,People and places ,business - Abstract
Strong public support is a prerequisite for ambitious and thus costly climate change mitigation policy, and strong public concern over climate change is a prerequisite for policy support. Why, then, do most public opinion surveys indicate rather high levels of concern and rather strong policy support, while de facto mitigation efforts in most countries remain far from ambitious? One possibility is that survey measures for public concern fail to fully reveal the true attitudes of citizens due to social desirability bias. In this paper, we implemented list-experiments in representative surveys in Germany and the United States (N = 3620 and 3640 respectively) to assess such potential bias. We find evidence that people systematically misreport, that is, understate their disbelief in human caused climate change. This misreporting is particularly strong amongst politically relevant subgroups. Individuals in the top 20% of the income distribution in the United States and supporters of conservative parties in Germany exhibit significantly higher climate change skepticism according to the list experiment, relative to conventional measures. While this does not definitively mean that climate skepticism is a widespread phenomenon in these countries, it does suggest that future research should reconsider how climate change concern is measured, and what subgroups of the population are more susceptible to misreporting and why. Our findings imply that public support for ambitious climate policy may be weaker than existing survey research suggests.
- Published
- 2021
4. Albedo Solution to Global Warming In the Control of CO2, Hotspots, & Hydro-Hotspots Forcing and Their Albedo-GHG Interactions
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Feinberg A
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Climate change mitigation ,Climatology ,Greenhouse gas ,Global warming ,Environmental science ,Interaction strength ,Climate change ,Forcing (mathematics) ,Albedo - Abstract
Although global warming (GW) albedo solutions are currently not being used worldwide, they are anticipated to be vital as a significant supplement to CO2 reduction efforts. Conservatively, albedo surface controls are seriously lacking. Furthermore, without albedo solutions there is a reasonable probability, as many authors have suggested, for a 1.5oC-3oC GW increase, which is expected to be enough for a tipping point to occur. An important aspect to bring to the attention of policymakers is the albedo-greenhouse gas (GHG) interactions. We model this interaction which has a major influence in assessing climate change. For example, modeling is used to help exemplify the amount of albedo surface area modification required to mitigate CO2 GW effects. Additionally, albedo controls are the only way to mitigate impermeable hotspots and hydro-hotspots surfaces that have increased at an alarming rate. We illustrate their growth rate; discuss their historical recognized significance and known correlations to climate change. Our results are directed toward influencing policymakers on the unique practical aspects of albedo solutions and their imminent need.
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- 2020
5. How Much Human-Caused Global Warming Should We Expect with Business-As-Usual (BAU) Climate Policies? A Semi-Empirical Assessment
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Ronan Connolly, Willie Soon, Michael Connolly, and Robert M Carter
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Control and Optimization ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Energy Engineering and Power Technology ,Climate change ,010502 geochemistry & geophysics ,01 natural sciences ,paris agreement ,lcsh:Technology ,Business as usual ,climate change mitigation ,Empirical assessment ,climate policies ,business-as-usual ,Electrical and Electronic Engineering ,Engineering (miscellaneous) ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment ,lcsh:T ,airborne fraction ,Global warming ,Climate change mitigation ,Climatology ,General Circulation Model ,Greenhouse gas ,Climate sensitivity ,Environmental science ,climate sensitivity ,Energy (miscellaneous) - Abstract
In order to assess the merits of national climate change mitigation policies, it is important to have a reasonable benchmark for how much human-caused global warming would occur over the coming century with “Business-As-Usual” (BAU) conditions. However, currently, policymakers are limited to making assessments by comparing the Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate change under various different “scenarios”, none of which are explicitly defined as BAU. Moreover, all of these estimates are ab initio computer model projections, and policymakers do not currently have equivalent empirically derived estimates for comparison. Therefore, estimates of the total future human-caused global warming from the three main greenhouse gases of concern (CO2, CH4, and N2O) up to 2100 are here derived for BAU conditions. A semi-empirical approach is used that allows direct comparisons between GCM-based estimates and empirically derived estimates. If the climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases implies a Transient Climate Response (TCR) of ≥ 2.5 °C or an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of ≥ 5.0 °C then the 2015 Paris Agreement’s target of keeping human-caused global warming below 2.0 °C will have been broken by the middle of the century under BAU. However, for a TCR < 1.5 °C or ECS < 2.0 °C, the target would not be broken under BAU until the 22nd century or later. Therefore, the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “likely” range estimates for TCR of 1.0 to 2.5 °C and ECS of 1.5 to 4.5 °C have not yet established if human-caused global warming is a 21st century problem.
- Published
- 2020
6. Approximate calculations of the net economic impact of global warming mitigation targets under heightened damage estimates
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Patrick T. Brown and Harry Saunders
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Atmospheric Science ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Natural resource economics ,Economics ,Climate Change ,Science ,Climate change ,Social Sciences ,01 natural sciences ,Global Warming ,Greenhouse Gases ,Development Economics ,Economic Growth ,0502 economics and business ,Environmental Chemistry ,Economic impact analysis ,050207 economics ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Climatology ,Multidisciplinary ,05 social sciences ,Global warming ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences ,Chemical Compounds ,Carbon Dioxide ,Models, Theoretical ,Investment (macroeconomics) ,Economic Analysis ,Product (business) ,Chemistry ,Climate change mitigation ,Economic Impact Analysis ,Greenhouse gas ,Atmospheric Chemistry ,Physical Sciences ,Damages ,Earth Sciences ,Environmental science ,Medicine ,Anthropogenic Climate Change ,Social Welfare ,Research Article - Abstract
Efforts to mitigate global warming are often justified through calculations of the economic damages that may occur absent mitigation. The earliest such damage estimates were speculative mathematical representations, but some more recent studies provide empirical estimates of damages on economic growth that accumulate over time and result in larger damages than those estimated previously. These heightened damage estimates have been used to suggest that limiting global warming this century to 1.5 °C avoids tens of trillions of 2010 US$ in damage to gross world product relative to limiting global warming to 2.0 °C. However, in order to estimate the net effect on gross world product, mitigation costs associated with decarbonizing the world's energy systems must be subtracted from the benefits of avoided damages. Here, we follow previous work to parameterize the aforementioned heightened damage estimates into a schematic global climate-economy model (DICE) so that they can be weighed against mainstream estimates of mitigation costs in a unified framework. We investigate the net effect of mitigation on gross world product through finite time horizons under a spectrum of exogenously defined levels of mitigation stringency. We find that even under heightened damage estimates, the additional mitigation costs of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C (relative to 2.0 °C) are higher than the additional avoided damages this century under most parameter combinations considered. Specifically, using our central parameter values, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C results in a net loss of gross world product of roughly forty trillion US$ relative to 2 °C and achieving either 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C require a net sacrifice of gross world product, relative to a no-mitigation case, though 2100 with a 3%/year discount rate. However, the benefits of more stringent mitigation accumulate over time and our calculations indicate that stabilizing warming at 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C by 2100 would eventually confer net benefits of thousands of trillions of US$ in gross world product by 2300. The results emphasize the temporal asymmetry between the costs of mitigation and benefits of avoided damages from climate change and thus the long timeframe for which climate change mitigation investment pays off.
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- 2020
7. Young Voices on Climate Change: The Paul F-Brandwein 2010 NSTA Lecture.
- Author
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Cherry, Lynne
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CLIMATE change , *CLIMATOLOGY , *CLIMATE change mitigation , *ACCLIMATIZATION , *ADOLESCENT health , *GLOBAL warming - Abstract
Lynne Cherry Brandwein Lecture March 2010 National Science Teachers Association (NSTA) Conference, Philadelphia, PA. Young Voices on Climate Change: Inspired and Empowered Youth Tackle Climate Science and Find Climate Solutions. As a child, Lynne Cherry was profoundly connected to the natural world and a special place. She watched the destruction of her world. Now, through her Young Voices on Climate Change project, she is trying to give teachers and young people the tools to prevent planetary meltdown on a greater scale. Global climate change is upon us and the need for education and action is immediate. Outreach, visual storytelling, and scientific understanding are especially necessary in light of the recent polls that show that the public is becoming more confused and less concerned about climate change. Cherry's climate book, co-authored with photojournalist Gary Braasch, and her Young Voices on Climate Change films feature climate solutions. They're about win-win-save the environment, protect human health, reduce global warming gases, demonstrate youth making a difference with practical tools, motivate engagement in climate science, take pride in increased science literacy, reach young people through their hearts as well as their minds, and save money. Although young people can help their parents, peers and communities understand climate science, they can also show them that reducing CO is in their economic interest, and spur them to take action. School carbon reduction initiatives are spilling over into communities yielding measurable results in both global warming gas reductions and significant monetary savings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
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8. Temperature-associated increases in the global soil respiration record.
- Author
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Bond-Lamberty, Ben and Thomson, Allison
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SOIL respiration , *CARBON cycle , *BIOGEOCHEMICAL cycles , *BIOGEOCHEMISTRY , *CLIMATE change , *CLIMATE change mitigation , *CLIMATOLOGY , *GLOBAL warming , *ENVIRONMENTAL protection - Abstract
Soil respiration, RS, the flux of microbially and plant-respired carbon dioxide (CO2) from the soil surface to the atmosphere, is the second-largest terrestrial carbon flux. However, the dynamics of RS are not well understood and the global flux remains poorly constrained. Ecosystem warming experiments, modelling analyses and fundamental biokinetics all suggest that RS should change with climate. This has been difficult to confirm observationally because of the high spatial variability of RS, inaccessibility of the soil medium and the inability of remote-sensing instruments to measure RS on large scales. Despite these constraints, it may be possible to discern climate-driven changes in regional or global RS values in the extant four-decade record of RS chamber measurements. Here we construct a database of worldwide RS observations matched with high-resolution historical climate data and find a previously unknown temporal trend in the RS record after accounting for mean annual climate, leaf area, nitrogen deposition and changes in CO2 measurement technique. We find that the air temperature anomaly (the deviation from the 1961–1990 mean) is significantly and positively correlated with changes in RS. We estimate that the global RS in 2008 (that is, the flux integrated over the Earth’s land surface over 2008) was 98 ± 12 Pg C and that it increased by 0.1 Pg C yr-1 between 1989 and 2008, implying a global RS response to air temperature (Q10) of 1.5. An increasing global RS value does not necessarily constitute a positive feedback to the atmosphere, as it could be driven by higher carbon inputs to soil rather than by mobilization of stored older carbon. The available data are, however, consistent with an acceleration of the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2010
- Full Text
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9. 2 °C vs. High Warming: Transitions to Flood-Generating Mechanisms across Canada
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Bernardo Teufel and Laxmi Sushama
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010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Geography, Planning and Development ,0207 environmental engineering ,Climate change ,Context (language use) ,02 engineering and technology ,2 °C warming ,Aquatic Science ,01 natural sciences ,Biochemistry ,flooding ,Streamflow ,020701 environmental engineering ,TD201-500 ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Water Science and Technology ,Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes ,Flood myth ,regional climate model ,flood-generating mechanisms ,Global warming ,Hydraulic engineering ,climate change ,Climate change mitigation ,13. Climate action ,Climatology ,Snowmelt ,Environmental science ,Climate model ,TC1-978 - Abstract
Fluvial flooding in Canada is often snowmelt-driven, thus occurs mostly in spring, and has caused billions of dollars in damage in the past decade alone. In a warmer climate, increasing rainfall and changing snowmelt rates could lead to significant shifts in flood-generating mechanisms. Here, projected changes to flood-generating mechanisms in terms of the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall are assessed across Canada, based on an ensemble of transient climate change simulations performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Changes to flood-generating mechanisms are assessed for both a late 21st century, high warming (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) scenario, and in a 2 °C global warming context. Under 2 °C of global warming, the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall to streamflow peaks is projected to remain close to that of the current climate, despite slightly increased rainfall contribution. In contrast, a high warming scenario leads to widespread increases in rainfall contribution and the emergence of hotspots of change in currently snowmelt-dominated regions across Canada. In addition, several regions in southern Canada would be projected to become rainfall dominated. These contrasting projections highlight the importance of climate change mitigation, as remaining below the 2 °C global warming threshold can avoid large changes over most regions, implying a low likelihood that expensive flood adaptation measures would be necessary.
- Published
- 2021
10. RUANG TERBUKA HIJAU DALAM MITIGASI PERUBAHAN IKLIM GREEN OPEN SPACE IN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
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Yusriani Sapta Dewi
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Atmosphere ,Climate change mitigation ,Greenhouse gas ,Climatology ,Global warming ,Environmental science ,Climate change ,perubahan iklim ,Combined result ,Precipitation ,Solar irradiance ,Ruang terbuka hijau ,pemanasan global - Abstract
Climate change is any substantial change in Earth’s climate that lasts for an extended period oftime. Global warming refers to climate change that causes an increase in the average temperature of thelower atmosphere. Global warming is the combined result of anthropogenic (human-caused) emissionsof greenhouse gases and changes in solar irradiance, while climate change refers to any change in thestate of the climate that can be identified by changes in the average and/or the variability of its properties(e.g., temperature, precipitation), and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.Green open space is one of solution for climate change mitigation.
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- 2017
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11. Global climate forcing from albedo change caused by large-scale deforestation and reforestation: quantification and attribution of geographic variation
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Bardan Ghimire, Crystal B. Schaaf, Feng Gao, Tong Jiao, Jeffrey G. Masek, and Christopher B. Williams
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Atmospheric Science ,Global and Planetary Change ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Global warming ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,Climate change ,Reforestation ,02 engineering and technology ,Forcing (mathematics) ,Radiative forcing ,Albedo ,01 natural sciences ,Climate change mitigation ,Deforestation ,Climatology ,Environmental science ,021101 geological & geomatics engineering ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
Large-scale deforestation and reforestation have contributed substantially to historical and contemporary global climate change in part through albedo-induced radiative forcing, with meaningful implications for forest management aiming to mitigate climate change. Associated warming or cooling varies widely across the globe due to a range of factors including forest type, snow cover, and insolation, but resulting geographic variation remains poorly described and has been largely based on model assessments. This study provides an observation-based approach to quantify local and global radiative forcings from large-scale deforestation and reforestation and further examines mechanisms that result in the spatial heterogeneity of radiative forcing. We incorporate a new spatially and temporally explicit land cover-specific albedo product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with a historical land use data set (Land Use Harmonization product). Spatial variation in radiative forcing was attributed to four mechanisms, including the change in snow-covered albedo, change in snow-free albedo, snow cover fraction, and incoming solar radiation. We find an albedo-only radiative forcing (RF) of −0.819 W m−2 if year 2000 forests were completely deforested and converted to croplands. Albedo RF from global reforestation of present-day croplands to recover year 1700 forests is estimated to be 0.161 W m−2. Snow-cover fraction is identified as the primary factor in determining the spatial variation of radiative forcing in winter, while the magnitude of the change in snow-free albedo is the primary factor determining variations in summertime RF. Findings reinforce the notion that, for conifers at the snowier high latitudes, albedo RF diminishes the warming from forest loss and the cooling from forest gain more so than for other forest types, latitudes, and climate settings.
- Published
- 2017
12. Charting pathways to climate change mitigation in a coupled socio-climate model
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Madhur Anand, Thomas M. Bury, and Chris T. Bauch
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0301 basic medicine ,Atmospheric Science ,Social Sciences ,Conservation of Energy Resources ,Global Warming ,0302 clinical medicine ,Learning and Memory ,11. Sustainability ,Economics ,Psychology ,Social Change ,Biology (General) ,Climatology ,Ecology ,Geography ,Simulation and Modeling ,Physics ,Social dynamics ,Chemistry ,Geophysics ,Computational Theory and Mathematics ,Modeling and Simulation ,Physical Sciences ,Research Article ,QH301-705.5 ,Climate Change ,Climate change ,Research and Analysis Methods ,03 medical and health sciences ,Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience ,Greenhouse Gases ,Genetics ,Learning ,Environmental Chemistry ,Humans ,Molecular Biology ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,Behavior ,Global warming ,Social change ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences ,Cognitive Psychology ,Chemical Compounds ,Biology and Life Sciences ,Computational Biology ,Environmental economics ,Carbon Dioxide ,Models, Theoretical ,Social learning ,Earth system science ,030104 developmental biology ,Climate change mitigation ,Physical Geography ,13. Climate action ,Atmospheric Chemistry ,Earth Sciences ,Cognitive Science ,Climate model ,Anthropogenic Climate Change ,030217 neurology & neurosurgery ,Neuroscience ,Earth Systems ,Climate Modeling - Abstract
Geophysical models of climate change are becoming increasingly sophisticated, yet less effort is devoted to modelling the human systems causing climate change and how the two systems are coupled. Here, we develop a simple socio-climate model by coupling an Earth system model to a social dynamics model. We treat social processes endogenously—emerging from rules governing how individuals learn socially and how social norms develop—as well as being influenced by climate change and mitigation costs. Our goal is to gain qualitative insights into scenarios of potential socio-climate dynamics and to illustrate how such models can generate new research questions. We find that the social learning rate is strongly influential, to the point that variation of its value within empirically plausible ranges changes the peak global temperature anomaly by more than 1°C. Conversely, social norms reinforce majority behaviour and therefore may not provide help when we most need it because they suppress the early spread of mitigative behaviour. Finally, exploring the model’s parameter space for mitigation cost and social learning suggests optimal intervention pathways for climate change mitigation. We find that prioritising an increase in social learning as a first step, followed by a reduction in mitigation costs provides the most efficient route to a reduced peak temperature anomaly. We conclude that socio-climate models should be included in the ensemble of models used to project climate change., Author summary The importance of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on climate change trajectories is widely acknowledged. However, geophysical climate models rarely account for dynamic human behaviour, which determines the emissions trajectory, and is itself affected by the climate system. Here, using a coupled socio-climate model, we show how social processes can strongly alter climate trajectories and we suggest optimal intervention pathways based on the model projections. Steps to increase social learning surrounding climate change should initially be prioritised for maximum impact, making a subsequent reduction in mitigation costs more effective. Policymakers will benefit from a better understanding of how social and climate processes interact, which can be provided by socio-climate models.
- Published
- 2019
13. Developed and developing world contributions to climate system change based on carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions
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Ting Wei, Qing Yan, Jieming Chou, Zhiyong Yang, Wenjie Dong, and Di Tian
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Atmospheric Science ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Global warming ,Climate commitment ,Developing country ,Climate change ,Low-carbon economy ,010502 geochemistry & geophysics ,01 natural sciences ,Climate change mitigation ,Environmental protection ,Climatology ,Greenhouse gas ,Environmental science ,Climate model ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
One of the key issues in international climate negotiations is the formulation of targets for emissions reduction for all countries based on the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities”. This formulation depends primarily on the quantitative attribution of the responsibilities of developed and developing countries for historical climate change. Using the Commuity Earth System Model (CESM), we estimate the responsibilities of developed countries and developing countries for climatic change from 1850 to 2005 using their carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions. The results indicate that developed countries contribute approximately 53%–61%, and developing countries approximately 39%–47%, to the increase in global air temperature, upper oceanic warming, sea-ice reduction in the NH, and permafrost degradation. In addition, the spatial heterogeneity of these changes from 1850 to 2005 is primarily attributed to the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in developed countries. Although uncertainties remain in the climate model and the external forcings used, GHG emissions in developed countries are the major contributor to the observed climate system changes in the 20th century.
- Published
- 2016
14. Past world economic production constrains current energy demands: Persistent scaling with implications for economic growth and climate change mitigation
- Author
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Matheus R. Grasselli, Stephen Keen, and Timothy J. Garrett
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Atmospheric Science ,Energy-Generating Resources ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Economics ,Natural resource economics ,Raw Materials ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,Social Sciences ,02 engineering and technology ,01 natural sciences ,Economic Growth ,Materials ,Climatology ,education.field_of_study ,Multidisciplinary ,Physics ,Energy consumption ,Nuclear power ,Renewable energy ,Chemistry ,Physical Sciences ,Medicine ,Thermodynamics ,Engineering and Technology ,Alternative Energy ,Economic Development ,Models, Econometric ,Research Article ,Science ,Climate Change ,Materials Science ,Population ,Climate change ,Development Economics ,021108 energy ,education ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,business.industry ,Global warming ,Chemical Compounds ,Carbon Dioxide ,Economic Analysis ,Energy and Power ,Climate change mitigation ,Earth Sciences ,Alternative energy ,Anthropogenic Climate Change ,business - Abstract
Climate change has become intertwined with the global economy. Here, we describe the contribution of inertia to future trends. Drawing from thermodynamic principles, and using 38 years of available statistics between 1980 to 2017, we find a constant scaling between current rates of world primary energy consumption [Formula: see text] and the historical time integral W of past world inflation-adjusted economic production Y, or [Formula: see text]. In each year, over a period during which both [Formula: see text] and W more than doubled, the ratio of the two remained nearly unchanged, that is [Formula: see text] Gigawatts per trillion 2010 US dollars. What this near constant implies is that current growth trends in energy consumption, population, and standard of living, perhaps counterintuitively, are determined by past innovations that have improved the economic production efficiency, or enabled use of less energy to transform raw materials into the makeup of civilization. Current observed growth rates agree well with predictions derived from available historical data. Future efforts to stabilize carbon dioxide emissions are likely also to be constrained by the contributions of past innovation to growth. Assuming no further efficiency gains, options look limited to rapid decarbonization of energy consumption through sustained implementation of at least one Gigawatt of renewable or nuclear power capacity per day. Alternatively, with continued reliance on fossil fuels, civilization could shift to a steady-state economy, one that devotes economic production exclusively to maintining ongoing metabolic needs rather than to material expansion. Even if such actions could be achieved immediately, energy consumption would continue at its current level, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations would only begin to balance natural sinks at concentrations exceeding 500 ppmv.
- Published
- 2020
15. Resource heterogeneity leads to unjust effort distribution in climate change mitigation
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Yamir Moreno, Josep Perelló, Angel Sánchez, Nereida Bueno-Guerra, Julián Vicens, Mario Gutiérrez-Roig, Jesús Gómez-Gardeñes, Carlos Gracia-Lázaro, Jordi Duch, European Commission, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), and Universitat de Barcelona
- Subjects
0301 basic medicine ,Male ,Climate justice ,Atmospheric Science ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Matemáticas ,lcsh:Medicine ,Social Sciences ,Collective action ,01 natural sciences ,Cognition ,Sociology ,Public goods game ,Psychology ,Cambio climático ,Canvi climàtic ,Cooperative Behavior ,lcsh:Science ,Child ,Game theory ,Climatology ,Multidisciplinary ,Public economics ,Applied Mathematics ,1. No poverty ,Presa de decisions ,Public good ,Awareness ,Middle Aged ,Teoria de jocs ,Physical Sciences ,Female ,Games ,Research Article ,Adult ,Risk ,Conservation of Natural Resources ,Physics - Physics and Society ,Adolescent ,Climate Change ,Decision Making ,FOS: Physical sciences ,Public Goods Game ,Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) ,Education ,03 medical and health sciences ,Young Adult ,Game Theory ,Social Justice ,Humans ,Educational Attainment ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Aged ,Environmental justice ,Behavior ,Global warming ,lcsh:R ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences ,Cognitive Psychology ,Biology and Life Sciences ,Poder adquisitivo ,Environmental economics ,Climatic changes ,Climatic change ,Dilemma ,030104 developmental biology ,Climate change mitigation ,Games, Experimental ,13. Climate action ,Environmental Justice ,Earth Sciences ,Recreation ,Cognitive Science ,lcsh:Q ,Business ,Anthropogenic Climate Change ,Decision making ,Mathematics ,Neuroscience ,Unsupervised Machine Learning ,Canvis climàtics - Abstract
Fighting against climate change is a global challenge shared by nations with heterogeneous economical resources and individuals with diverse propensity for cooperation. However, we lack a clear understanding of the role of key factors such as inequality of means when diverse agents interact together towards a common goal. Here, we report the results of a collective-risk dilemma experiment in which groups of subjects were initially given either equal or unequal endowments. We found that although the collective goal was always achieved regardless of the initial capital distribution, the effort distribution was highly inequitable. Specifically, participants with fewer resources contributed significantly more to the public goods than the richer -sometimes twice as much. An unsupervised learning algorithm clustered the subjects according to their individual behavior. We found that the poorest participants congregated within the two "generous clusters" whereas the richest were mostly classified into a "greedy cluster". Our findings suggest that future policies would benefit both from reinforcing climate justice actions addressed to most vulnerable people and educating fairness instead of focusing on understanding of generic or global climate consequences, as the latter has not proven to drive equitable contributions., 20 pages and 19 figures, including the SI file
- Published
- 2018
16. From advocacy to action: Projecting the health impacts of climate change
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Nissan, Hannah and Conway, Declan
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Atmospheric Science ,Time Factors ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Health Status ,Social Sciences ,lcsh:Medicine ,010501 environmental sciences ,Global Health ,Global Warming ,01 natural sciences ,Cognition ,Risk Factors ,RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine ,11. Sustainability ,Medicine and Health Sciences ,Psychology ,Health Status Indicators ,Climatology ,Simulation and Modeling ,General Medicine ,3. Good health ,Chemistry ,Perspective ,Physical Sciences ,Seasons ,Environmental Monitoring ,GE Environmental Sciences ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Climate Change ,Decision Making ,Climate change ,Research and Analysis Methods ,Risk Assessment ,Greenhouse Gases ,Political science ,Parasitic Diseases ,medicine ,Environmental Chemistry ,Humans ,Environmental planning ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Public health ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences ,Global warming ,Perspective (graphical) ,lcsh:R ,Cognitive Psychology ,Biology and Life Sciences ,Tropical Diseases ,Malaria ,Climate change mitigation ,Action (philosophy) ,13. Climate action ,Atmospheric Chemistry ,Greenhouse gas ,Earth Sciences ,Cognitive Science ,Climate model ,Climate Modeling ,Neuroscience ,Forecasting - Abstract
Mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions has many measurable co-benefits for public health and remains a priority (Haines et al., 2009). However, recognition that climate change is already underway has led to an increasing focus on adaptation. Studies projecting the impacts of future climate change on health date back to the late 1980s and their number has grown substantially in recent years. Climate change impact assessments generally use the output of global climate models (GCMs). Here we profile, and suggest means for addressing, challenges associated with the use of GCM projections and impact studies to inform adaptation.
- Published
- 2018
17. A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas
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Alberto de la Fuente, Maisa Rojas, and Claudia Mac Lean
- Subjects
Greenhouse Effect ,Atmospheric Science ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Natural resource economics ,Physiology ,Climate Change ,Climate change ,lcsh:Medicine ,Transportation ,010501 environmental sciences ,Research and Analysis Methods ,01 natural sciences ,Global Warming ,Greenhouse Gases ,Economics ,Per capita ,Medicine and Health Sciences ,Environmental Chemistry ,Humans ,Greenhouse effect ,lcsh:Science ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Climatology ,Behavior ,Multidisciplinary ,Equity (economics) ,business.industry ,Simulation and Modeling ,Global warming ,Environmental resource management ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences ,lcsh:R ,Tragedy of the commons ,Chemical Compounds ,Food Consumption ,Temperature ,Biology and Life Sciences ,Carbon Dioxide ,Chemistry ,Climate change mitigation ,Greenhouse gas ,Atmospheric Chemistry ,Physical Sciences ,Earth Sciences ,Engineering and Technology ,lcsh:Q ,business ,Physiological Processes ,Research Article - Abstract
This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the "well below 2°C" warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work's primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2.
- Published
- 2017
18. Can air pollutant controls change global warming?
- Author
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Gunnar Luderer, Malte Meinshausen, Elmar Kriegler, and Jessica Strefler
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Pollution ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Geography, Planning and Development ,Global warming ,Climate change ,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law ,Radiative forcing ,Climate change mitigation ,Environmental protection ,Climatology ,Greenhouse gas ,Environmental science ,Climate model ,Greenhouse effect ,media_common - Abstract
In this paper we analyze the interaction between climate and air pollution policies using the integrated assessment model REMIND coupled to the reduced-form climate model MAGICC. Since overall, aerosols tend to cool the atmosphere, there is a concern that a reduction of pollutant emissions could accelerate global warming and offset the climate benefits of carbon dioxide emission reductions. We investigate scenarios which independently reduce emissions from either large-scale sources, such as power plants, or small-scale sources, such as cooking and heating stoves. Large-scale sources are likely to be easier to control, but their aerosol emissions are characterized by a relatively high sulfur content, which tends to result in atmospheric cooling. Pollution from small-scale sources, by contrast, is characterized by a high share of carbonaceous aerosol, which is an important contributor to global warming. We find that air pollution policies can significantly reduce aerosol emissions when no climate policies are in place. Stringent climate policies lead to a large reduction of fossil fuel use, and therefore result in a concurrent reduction of air pollutant emissions. These reductions partly reduce aerosol masking, thus initially counteracting the reduction of greenhouse gas forcing, however not overcompensating it. If climate policies are in place, air pollution policies have almost no impacts on medium- and long-term radiative forcing. Therefore there is no conflict of objectives between clean air and limiting global warming. We find that the stringency of air pollution policies may influence the rate of global temperature change in the first decade. Afterwards climate change mitigation policies are of greater importance.
- Published
- 2014
19. Global water resources affected by human interventionss and climate change
- Author
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Haddeland, I., Heinke, J., Biemans, H., Eisner, S., Flörke, M., Hanasaki, N., Konzmann, M., Ludwig, F., Masaki, Y., Schewe, J., Stacke, T., Tessler, Z., Wada, Y., Wisser, D., Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, Hydrologie, FG Landschapskunde, Gis, Hydrologie, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, Hydrologie, and FG Landschapskunde, Gis, Hydrologie
- Subjects
Agricultural Irrigation ,Climate Change ,Climate change ,surface-water ,Earth System Science ,Water conservation ,Water Cycle ,Water Supply ,scheme ,Humans ,Computer Simulation ,Human Activities ,Water cycle ,validation ,Multidisciplinary ,WIMEK ,Global Climate Impacts: A Cross-Sector, Multi-Model Assessment Special Feature ,Global warming ,Water storage ,Models, Theoretical ,bias correction ,fluxes ,Water resources ,Climate Resilience ,Climate change mitigation ,Klimaatbestendigheid ,Climatology ,Environmental science ,Leerstoelgroep Aardsysteemkunde ,integrated model ,Water resource management ,Surface water ,Forecasting - Abstract
Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future.
- Published
- 2014
20. When worry about climate change leads to climate action: How values, worry and personal responsibility relate to various climate actions.
- Author
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Bouman, Thijs, Verschoor, Mark, Albers, Casper J., Böhm, Gisela, Fisher, Stephen D., Poortinga, Wouter, Whitmarsh, Lorraine, and Steg, Linda
- Subjects
CLIMATE change ,RESPONSIBILITY ,CLIMATE change mitigation ,CLIMATOLOGY ,SOCIAL surveys ,CLIMATE change prevention ,GLOBAL warming - Abstract
• Climate worry raises personal responsibility and, thereby, diverse climate actions. • Individuals who strongly endorse biospheric values worry more about climate change. • Personal responsibility to reduce climate change relates to various climate actions. • Biospheric values primarily relate to personal climate mitigation behaviours. • Worry about climate change is primarily associated with climate policy support. The IPCC's report on Global Warming of 1.5°C positioned climate change as one of the most worrying issues mankind has ever faced. Although many people worry about climate change, there is still much unknown about the origins and outcomes of worry about climate change; particularly, whether and how it can motivate specific and personal climate actions. The current paper investigates this critical relationship with data from the European Social Survey Round 8 (44,387 respondents from 23 countries). As expected, the more individuals worried about climate change, the more likely they were to take and support climate action. Yet, the process through which this association occurred differed between actions. Specifically, worry was both directly and indirectly, via feelings of personal responsibility to reduce climate change, associated with climate policy support; whereas worry was mostly indirectly associated with personal climate mitigation behaviours, via personal responsibility. In addition, worry about climate change appears partly rooted in biospheric values (i.e., caring about nature and the environment), and biospheric values were also clearly, directly and positively related to personal climate mitigation behaviours. The relationships were highly consistent across countries but varied somewhat in size. The results show how generic feelings about climate change can directly and indirectly affect both climate policy support and personal climate mitigation behaviours, thereby providing critical insights for science and policy making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
21. How Much Human-Caused Global Warming Should We Expect with Business-As-Usual (BAU) Climate Policies? A Semi-Empirical Assessment.
- Author
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Connolly, Ronan, Connolly, Michael, Carter, Robert M., and Soon, Willie
- Subjects
- *
CLIMATE sensitivity , *CLIMATE change mitigation , *GLOBAL warming , *CLIMATOLOGY , *CLIMATE change , *GREENHOUSE gases - Abstract
In order to assess the merits of national climate change mitigation policies, it is important to have a reasonable benchmark for how much human-caused global warming would occur over the coming century with "Business-As-Usual" (BAU) conditions. However, currently, policymakers are limited to making assessments by comparing the Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate change under various different "scenarios", none of which are explicitly defined as BAU. Moreover, all of these estimates are ab initio computer model projections, and policymakers do not currently have equivalent empirically derived estimates for comparison. Therefore, estimates of the total future human-caused global warming from the three main greenhouse gases of concern (CO2, CH4, and N2O) up to 2100 are here derived for BAU conditions. A semi-empirical approach is used that allows direct comparisons between GCM-based estimates and empirically derived estimates. If the climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases implies a Transient Climate Response (TCR) of ≥ 2.5 °C or an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of ≥ 5.0 °C then the 2015 Paris Agreement's target of keeping human-caused global warming below 2.0 °C will have been broken by the middle of the century under BAU. However, for a TCR < 1.5 °C or ECS < 2.0 °C, the target would not be broken under BAU until the 22nd century or later. Therefore, the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "likely" range estimates for TCR of 1.0 to 2.5 °C and ECS of 1.5 to 4.5 °C have not yet established if human-caused global warming is a 21st century problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
22. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios
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S. Harder, James J. Winebrake, Jordan A. Silberman, Daniel A. Lack, M. Gold, and James J. Corbett
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Atmospheric Science ,Global warming ,Carbon offset ,Climate change ,Low-carbon economy ,lcsh:QC1-999 ,lcsh:Chemistry ,Climate change mitigation ,lcsh:QD1-999 ,Arctic ,Environmental protection ,Greenhouse gas ,Climatology ,Environmental science ,Fugitive emissions ,lcsh:Physics - Abstract
The Arctic is a sensitive region in terms of climate change and a rich natural resource for global economic activity. Arctic shipping is an important contributor to the region's anthropogenic air emissions, including black carbon – a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow. These emissions are projected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. To understand the impacts of these increased emissions, scientists and modelers require high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories that can be used for regional assessment modeling. This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. Short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing; a first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing due to Arctic ships by at least 17% compared to warming from these vessels' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams). The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.
- Published
- 2010
23. Public perceptions about climate change mitigation in British Columbia's forest sector
- Author
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Shannon Hagerman, Robert Kozak, Guillaume Peterson St-Laurent, and George Hoberg
- Subjects
Atmospheric Science ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Sustainable forest management ,lcsh:Medicine ,Plant Science ,Forests ,Surveys ,010501 environmental sciences ,01 natural sciences ,Surveys and Questionnaires ,lcsh:Science ,Conservation Science ,Climatology ,education.field_of_study ,Multidisciplinary ,geography.geographical_feature_category ,Ecology ,Fossils ,Plant Anatomy ,Reforestation ,Old-growth forest ,Terrestrial Environments ,Wood ,Paleoxylology ,Research Design ,Engineering and Technology ,Fossil Wood ,Research Article ,Conservation of Natural Resources ,Carbon Sequestration ,Environmental Engineering ,Forest Ecology ,Climate Change ,Population ,Forest management ,Research and Analysis Methods ,Ecosystems ,Forest ecology ,education ,Environmental planning ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Internet ,geography ,Survey Research ,British Columbia ,lcsh:R ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences ,Global warming ,Biology and Life Sciences ,Paleontology ,15. Life on land ,Carbon ,Climate change mitigation ,13. Climate action ,Public Opinion ,Earth Sciences ,lcsh:Q ,Perception - Abstract
The role of forest management in mitigating climate change is a central concern for the Canadian province of British Columbia. The successful implementation of forest management activities to achieve climate change mitigation in British Columbia will be strongly influenced by public support or opposition. While we now have increasingly clear ideas of the management opportunities associated with forest mitigation and some insight into public support for climate change mitigation in the context of sustainable forest management, very little is known with respect to the levels and basis of public support for potential forest management strategies to mitigate climate change. This paper, by describing the results of a web-based survey, documents levels of public support for the implementation of eight forest carbon mitigation strategies in British Columbia's forest sector, and examines and quantifies the influence of the factors that shape this support. Overall, respondents ascribed a high level of importance to forest carbon mitigation and supported all of the eight proposed strategies, indicating that the British Columbia public is inclined to consider alternative practices in managing forests and wood products to mitigate climate change. That said, we found differences in levels of support for the mitigation strategies. In general, we found greater levels of support for a rehabilitation strategy (e.g. reforestation of unproductive forest land), and to a lesser extent for conservation strategies (e.g. old growth conservation, reduced harvest) over enhanced forest management strategies (e.g. improved harvesting and silvicultural techniques). We also highlighted multiple variables within the British Columbia population that appear to play a role in predicting levels of support for conservation and/or enhanced forest management strategies, including environmental values, risk perception, trust in groups of actors, prioritized objectives of forest management and socio-demographic factors.
- Published
- 2018
24. Climate change creativity for cirrus clouds and contrails control
- Author
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Harijono Djojodihardjo
- Subjects
Troposphere ,Climate change mitigation ,Climatology ,Global warming ,Climate change ,Environmental science ,Cirrus ,Atmospheric sciences ,Water vapor ,Ice water - Abstract
Cirrus ice clouds formed normally in the upper troposphere and contrails, shed by aircraft, impact climate and global warming due to prevailing cirrus clouds ice water content and crystal size. Contrail cirrus impact on climate change also comprises their influence on water vapor in the higher troposphere layer, which alter the infrared heat emission. The effect of commercial flights to climate change is of serious concern to the environmental conservation and climate change mitigation efforts. Therefore, it is imperative that the physical characteristics of cirrus clouds, contrails and their interactions be understood to devise anthropogenic solutions.
- Published
- 2015
25. The climatic impacts of land surface change and carbon management, and the implications for climate-change mitigation policy
- Author
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Roni Avissar, Kenneth J. Davis, Pekka E. Kauppi, Naomi Pena, Roger A. Pielke, Neil Sampson, Stephen T. Jackson, Michael J. Apps, John O. Niles, Kenneth G. MacDicken, Yongkang Xue, Gregg Marland, Richard J. Norby, Dev Niyogi, Peter C. Frumhoff, John Katzenberger, Richard Betts, Linda A. Joyce, and Ronald P. Neilson
- Subjects
Runaway climate change ,Atmospheric Science ,Global and Planetary Change ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Global warming ,Climate change ,15. Life on land ,010501 environmental sciences ,Environmental Science (miscellaneous) ,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law ,01 natural sciences ,Biosequestration ,Climate change mitigation ,Effects of global warming ,Environmental protection ,13. Climate action ,Climatology ,11. Sustainability ,Environmental science ,Climate model ,Land use, land-use change and forestry ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
Strategies to mitigate anthropogenic climate change recognize that carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere can reduce the build-up of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere. However, climate mitigation policies do not generally incorporate the effects of these changes in the land surface on the surface albedo, the fluxes of sensible and latent heat to the atmosphere, and the distribution of energy within the climate system. Changes in these components of the surface energy budget can affect the local, regional, and global climate. Given the goal of mitigating climate change, it is important to consider all of the effects of changes in terrestrial vegetation and to work toward a better understanding of the full climate system. Acknowledging the importance of land surface change as a component of climate change makes it more challenging to create a system of credits and debits wherein emission or sequestration of carbon in the biosphere is equated with emission of carbon from fossil fue...
- Published
- 2003
26. Awareness of Climate Change and the Dietary Choices of Young Adults in Finland: A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study
- Author
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Jouni J. K. Jaakkola, Essi A. E. Korkala, and Timo T. Hugg
- Subjects
Male ,Atmospheric Science ,Cross-sectional study ,Epidemiology ,Social Sciences ,010501 environmental sciences ,Global Health ,01 natural sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Sociology ,Environmental protection ,Surveys and Questionnaires ,Food choice ,Medicine and Health Sciences ,Psychology ,Public and Occupational Health ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Finland ,2. Zero hunger ,Climatology ,education.field_of_study ,Multidisciplinary ,Socioeconomic Aspects of Health ,3. Good health ,Research Design ,Population study ,Medicine ,Female ,Research Article ,Clinical Research Design ,Science ,Climate Change ,Population ,Climate change ,Biology ,Research and Analysis Methods ,Diet Surveys ,03 medical and health sciences ,Food Preferences ,Young Adult ,Environmental health ,Humans ,education ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Nutrition ,Demography ,Behavior ,Survey Research ,Global warming ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences ,Biology and Life Sciences ,Confidence interval ,Health Care ,Climate change mitigation ,Survey Methods ,Cross-Sectional Studies ,Attitude ,Socioeconomic Factors ,13. Climate action ,Public Opinion ,People and Places ,Earth Sciences ,Linear Models - Abstract
Climate change is a major public health threat that is exacerbated by food production. Food items differ substantially in the amount of greenhouse gases their production generates and therefore individuals, if willing, can mitigate climate change through dietary choices. We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study to assess if the understanding of climate change, concern over climate change or socio-economic characteristics are reflected in the frequencies of climate-friendly food choices. The study population comprised 1623 young adults in Finland who returned a self-administered questionnaire (response rate 64.0%). We constructed a Climate-Friendly Diet Score (CFDS) ranging theoretically from −14 to 14 based on the consumption of 14 food items. A higher CFDS indicated a climate-friendlier diet. Multivariate linear regression analyses on the determinants of CFDS revealed that medium concern raised CFDS on average by 0.51 points (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.03, 0.98) and high concern by 1.30 points (95% CI 0.80, 1.80) compared to low concern. Understanding had no effect on CFDS on its own. Female gender raised CFDS by 1.92 (95% CI 1.59, 2.25). Unemployment decreased CFDS by 0.92 (95% CI −1.68, −0.15). Separate analyses of genders revealed that high concern over climate change brought about a greater increase in CFDS in females than in males. Good understanding of climate change was weakly connected to climate-friendly diet among females only. Our results indicate that increasing awareness of climate change could lead to increased consumption of climate-friendly food, reduction in GHG emissions, and thus climate change mitigation.
- Published
- 2014
27. Why do some people do 'more' to mitigate climate change than others? Exploring heterogeneity in psycho-social associations
- Author
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José Manuel Ortega-Egea, Nieves García-de-Frutos, and Raquel Antolin-Lopez
- Subjects
Male ,Atmospheric Science ,Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ,Social Sciences ,lcsh:Medicine ,Behavioral engagement ,Behavioral Ecology ,Sociology ,Risk Factors ,Surveys and Questionnaires ,Morphogenesis ,Psychology ,Medicine ,lcsh:Science ,Psychographic ,media_common ,Climatology ,Aged, 80 and over ,Social Research ,Multidisciplinary ,Ecology ,Public economics ,Environmental resource management ,Middle Aged ,Research Design ,Female ,Psychosocial ,Research Article ,Adult ,Conservation of Natural Resources ,Social Psychology ,Adolescent ,Climate Change ,Climate change ,Research and Analysis Methods ,Young Adult ,Humans ,media_common.cataloged_instance ,European union ,Social Behavior ,Aged ,Behavior ,Motivation ,Survey Research ,business.industry ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences ,Global warming ,lcsh:R ,Biology and Life Sciences ,Morphogenic Segmentation ,Individual level ,Cross-Sectional Studies ,Climate change mitigation ,Earth Sciences ,lcsh:Q ,business ,Environmental Protection ,Developmental Biology - Abstract
The urgency of climate change mitigation calls for a profound shift in personal behavior. This paper investigates psycho-social correlates of extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, while also testing for potential (unobserved) heterogeneity in European citizens' decision-making. A person's extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change is conceptualized--and differentiated from common mitigation behavior--as some people's broader and greater levels of behavioral engagement (compared to others) across specific self-reported mitigation actions and behavioral domains. Regression analyses highlight the importance of environmental psychographics (i.e., attitudes, motivations, and knowledge about climate change) and socio-demographics (especially country-level variables) in understanding extra mitigation behavior. By looking at the data through the lens of segmentation, significant heterogeneity is uncovered in the associations of attitudes and knowledge about climate change--but not in motivational or socio-demographic links--with extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, across two groups of environmentally active respondents. The study has implications for promoting more ambitious behavioral responses to climate change, both at the individual level and across countries.
- Published
- 2014
28. COAL ENDANGERS A PLANET UNABLE TO STOP USING IT.
- Author
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SENGUPTA, SOMINI
- Subjects
- *
COAL & the environment , *CLIMATE change , *COAL-fired power plant design & construction , *GLOBAL warming , *CLIMATE change mitigation , *CLIMATOLOGY - Abstract
The article reports on the catastrophic climate change that is due to hit planet Earth if the use of coal as fuel will not be stopped or significantly reduced. Topics include the 2018 reports issued by U.S. government agencies and a United Nations scientific panel on global warming on the dangers of coal, the sustained use of coal despite the warnings, and the continuous construction of coal plants in Asia.
- Published
- 2018
29. Temporary acceleration of the hydrological cycle in response to a CO2rampdown
- Author
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Richard Wood, Peili Wu, Jeff Ridley, and Jason Lowe
- Subjects
Geophysics ,Climate change mitigation ,Climatology ,Greenhouse gas ,Global warming ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Environmental science ,Climate change ,Climate model ,Global change ,Precipitation ,Water cycle - Abstract
[1] Current studies of the impact of climate change mitigation options tend to scale patterns of precipitation change linearly with surface temperature. Using climate model simulations, we show a nonlinear hydrological response to transient global warming and a substantial side effect of climate mitigation. In an idealised representation of mitigation action, where we reverse the trend of global warming, the precipitation response shows significant hysteresis behaviour due to heat previously accumulated in the ocean. Stabilising or reducing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere is found temporarily to strengthen the global hydrological cycle, while reducing rainfall over some tropical and subtropical regions. The drying trend under global warming over The Amazon, Australia and western Africa may intensify for decades after CO2 reductions. The inertia due to accumulated heat in the ocean implies a commitment to hydrological cycle changes long after stabilisation or reduction of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
- Published
- 2010
30. Vulnerability to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems in Latin America and the Caribbean : Building Response Strategies
- Author
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World Bank
- Subjects
INVESTMENT ,CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION ,INFRASTRUCTURE ,EMISSIONS SCENARIOS ,GASES ,GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ,ZINC ,CARBON SEQUESTRATION ,CARBON STORAGE ,CLIMATIC VARIATIONS ,WATERSHED MANAGEMENT ,RAINFALL ,LAND USE ,AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY ,EMISSIONS ,RENEWABLE ENERGY ,EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ,EMISSIONS SCENARIO ,NASH ,TROPICAL REGIONS ,CLEAN” TECHNOLOGIES ,INCENTIVES ,ORGANIC MATTER ,GAS ,FERTILIZERS ,FOSSIL FUELS ,HUMIDITY ,METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS ,FARMERS ,GREENHOUSE GAS ,LAKES ,ANNUAL PRECIPITATION ,NITROGEN FIXATION ,HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE ,CAPACITY ,LEAD ,HYDROLOGY ,CROP RESIDUE ,FOREST ECOSYSTEMS ,PRICES ,GLACIERS ,METHANE EMISSIONS ,WATERSHED ,PLANS ,GLOBAL WARMING ,CARBON SEQUESTRATION CAPACITY ,RELATIVE HUMIDITY ,GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY ,INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS ,RAIN ,EMISSION SCENARIOS ,GAS PRODUCTION ,CYCLONES ,CROP ,EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS ,ATMOSPHERE ,GCM ,REPORTS ,CLIMATIC VARIABILITY ,WEATHER CONDITIONS ,BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION ,GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ,NATIONAL EMISSIONS ,SURFACE TEMPERATURE ,GREENHOUSE ,SOIL CARBON ,ACIDIFICATION ,EMISSION SCENARIO ,EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS ,AGRICULTURE ,CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE ,NITROUS OXIDE ,CLIMATE CHANGE ,RESEARCH ,COPPER ,NUTRIENTS ,STORMS ,MEXICO ,CARBON ,ENERGY ,RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES ,METHANE ,PESTICIDES ,CARBON MARKET ,FROST ,FORESTS ,GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ,IRRIGATION ,FERTILIZATION ,GREENHOUSE GAS ABATEMENT ,TEMPERATURE ,DROUGHT ,NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONS ,IPCC ,AIR ,LAND‐USE ,FOREST ,LAND DEGRADATION ,PRECIPITATION ,CO2 ,ARSENIC ,TROPICAL STORMS ,CLIMATOLOGY ,TROPICAL FOREST ,GREENHOUSE GASES ,NEGATIVE IMPACT ,PLANT BREEDING ,FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE ,FUELS ,CLIMATE SYSTEM ,CARBON TAXES ,METEOROLOGY ,ALTITUDE ,CADMIUM ,BENEFITS ,TROPICS ,TECHNOLOGY ,FORESTRY ,AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS ,FLOODS ,ENERGY EFFICIENCY ,WATER QUALITY ,NATURAL RESOURCES ,CLIMATE ,NITROGEN ,GAS EMISSIONS ,WATER RESOURCES ,ENERGY SOURCES ,AFFORESTATION ,SOLAR RADIATION ,RADIATION ,ECOSYSTEM ,GHG ,DEFORESTATION ,EMISSION ,GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS ,CARBON CERTIFICATES - Abstract
This study reports the results of “action research” to identify and prioritize stakeholder driven, locally relevant response options to climate change. These response options comprise the basis of local action plans developed to address agricultural adaptations to climate change in three diverse agroecoystems: the Yaqui Valley in northwestern Mexico, the Mantaro Valley in central Peru, and the western littoral regional of Uruguay. The study has three primary objectives. The first is to develop and apply a pilot methodology for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and for formulating response strategies to inform private and public sector decisions in the Latin America region. The second objective is to formulate recommendations for investments in each of the selected agro-ecosystems in a range of areas including agricultural technology adaptation, infrastructure investments, public and private sectoral support activities, and institutional and policy changes. The final objective is to disseminate the study results in the Latin America region to help increase understanding of the impacts of climate change and alternative adaptation response strategies.
- Published
- 2009
31. Incorporating changes in albedo in estimating the climate mitigation benefits of land use change projects
- Author
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A. Mayer, M. Johnston, David Neil Bird, Maithilee Kunda, L. Canella, B Schlamadinger, EGU, Publication, JOANNEUM RESEARCH - Institute for Robotics and Mechatronics, School of Interactive Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology [Atlanta], Institute of Plant Sciences, Karl-Franzens-Universität [Graz, Autriche], TerraCarbon LLC, and Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC)
- Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Cloud cover ,[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences ,010501 environmental sciences ,Carbon sequestration ,[SDU.ASTR] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph] ,01 natural sciences ,[PHYS.ASTR.CO]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Cosmology and Extra-Galactic Astrophysics [astro-ph.CO] ,afforestation ,Land use, land-use change and forestry ,[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,land tenure and use ,[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere ,[SDU.ASTR]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph] ,[SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere ,Global warming ,Reforestation ,Forestry ,15. Life on land ,Albedo ,Radiative forcing ,carbon sequestration ,[SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment ,Climate change mitigation ,climate change ,13. Climate action ,[PHYS.ASTR.CO] Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Cosmology and Extra-Galactic Astrophysics [astro-ph.CO] ,Climatology ,[SDU.STU] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences ,Environmental science - Abstract
International audience; Some climate scientists are questioning whether the practice of converting of non-forest lands to forest land (afforestation or reforestation) is an effective climate change mitigation option. The discussion focuses particularly on areas where the new forest is primarily coniferous and there is significant amount of snow since the increased climate forcing due to the change in albedo may counteract the decreased climate forcing due to carbon dioxide removal. In this paper, we develop a stand-based model that combines changes in surface albedo, solar radiation, latitude, cloud cover and carbon sequestration. As well, we develop a procedure to convert carbon stock changes to equivalent climatic forcing or climatic forcing to equivalent carbon stock changes. Using the model, we investigate the sensitivity of combined affects of changes in surface albedo and carbon stock changes to model parameters. The model is sensitive to amount of cloud, atmospheric absorption, timing of canopy closure, carbon sequestration rate among other factors. The sensitivity of the model is investigated at one Canadian site, and then the model is tested at numerous sites across Canada. In general, we find that the change in albedo reduces the carbon sequestration benefits by approximately 30% over 100 years, but this is not drastic enough to suggest that one should not use afforestation or reforestation as a climate change mitigation option. This occurs because the forests grow in places where there is significant amount of cloud in winter. As well, variations in sequestration rate seem to be counterbalanced by the amount and timing of canopy closure. We close by speculating that the effects of albedo may also be significant in locations at lower latitudes, where there are less clouds, and where there are extended dry seasons. These conditions make grasses light coloured and when irrigated crops, dark forests or other vegetation such as biofuels replace the grasses, the change in carbon stocks may not compensate for the darkening of the surface.
- Published
- 2008
32. Estimating Global Climate Change Impacts On Hydropower Projects : Applications In India, Sri Lanka And Vietnam
- Author
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Atsushi Iimi
- Subjects
Water resources ,Climate change mitigation ,Natural resource economics ,business.industry ,Water flow ,Hydroelectricity ,Climatology ,Climate change scenario ,Global warming ,Environmental science ,Climate change ,business ,Hydropower - Abstract
The world is faced with considerable risk and uncertainty about climate change. Particular attention has been paid increasingly to hydropower generation in recent years because it is renewable energy. However, hydropower is among the most vulnerable industries to changes in global and regional climate. This paper aims to examine the possibility of applying a simple vector autoregressive model to forecast future hydrological series and evaluate the resulting impact on hydropower projects. Three projects are considered - in India, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. The results are still tentative in terms of both methodology and implications; but the analysis shows that the calibrated dynamic forecasts of hydrological series are much different from the conventional reference points in the 90 percent dependable year. The paper also finds that hydrological discharges tend to increase with rainfall and decrease with temperature. The rainy season would likely have higher water levels, but in the lean season water resources would become even more limited. The amount of energy generated would be affected to a certain extent, but the project viability may not change so much. Comparing the three cases, it is suggested that having larger installed capacity and some storage capacity might be useful to accommodate future hydrological series and seasonality. A broader assessment will be called for at the project preparation stage.
- Published
- 2007
33. Climate impact of black carbon emitted from energy consumption in the world's regions
- Author
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Olivier Boucher and M. Shekar Reddy
- Subjects
Geophysics ,Climate change mitigation ,Climatology ,Global warming ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Climate change ,Environmental science ,Forcing (mathematics) ,Radiative forcing ,Albedo ,Snow ,Latitude - Abstract
[1] We have used the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique General Circulation Model (LMD GCM) to estimate the contribution of different regions to global black carbon (BC) atmospheric burden and direct radiative forcing (DRF). On the global scale, fossil fuels and biofuels account for 66% and 34% of energy-related BC emissions, respectively. East and South Asia together contribute more than 50% of the global surface, atmospheric, and top-of-atmosphere DRF by BC. The regional contributions to global mean forcings closely follow the respective contributions to atmospheric burden. The global warming potential (GWP) of BC for different regions ranges from 374 to 677 with a global mean of 480. Europe is the largest contributor (63%) to BC deposition at high latitudes. The indirect GWP due to the BC effect on snow albedo is estimated to be largest for Europe (possibly as large as 1200), suggesting that BC emission reductions from this region are more efficient to mitigate climate change.
- Published
- 2007
34. National contributions to observed global warming
- Author
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Trevor J Smith, Tanya L. Graham, Cassandra Lamontagne, Donny Seto, H. Damon Matthews, and Serge Keverian
- Subjects
Global temperature ,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment ,business.industry ,Natural resource economics ,Fossil fuel ,Global warming ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,Climate change ,chemistry.chemical_compound ,Climate change mitigation ,chemistry ,Deforestation ,Greenhouse gas ,Climatology ,Environmental science ,Sulfate aerosol ,business ,General Environmental Science - Abstract
There is considerable interest in identifying national contributions to global warming as a way of allocating historical responsibility for observed climate change. This task is made difficult by uncertainty associated with national estimates of historical emissions, as well as by difficulty in estimating the climate response to emissions of gases with widely varying atmospheric lifetimes. Here, we present a new estimate of national contributions to observed climate warming, including CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and land-use change, as well as methane, nitrous oxide and sulfate aerosol emissions While some countries’ warming contributions are reasonably well defined by fossil fuel CO2 emissions, many countries have dominant contributions from land-use CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, emphasizing the importance of both deforestation and agriculture as components of a country’s contribution to climate warming. Furthermore, because of their short atmospheric lifetime, recent sulfate aerosol emissions have a large impact on a country’s current climate contribution We show also that there are vast disparities in both total and per-capita climate contributions among countries, and that across most developed countries, per-capita contributions are not currently consistent with attempts to restrict global temperature change to less than 2 C above pre-industrial temperatures.
- Published
- 2014
35. Research Spotlight: New emissions scenarios say 2°C warming may be unavoidable
- Author
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Colin Schultz
- Subjects
business.industry ,Global warming ,Environmental resource management ,Climate change ,Representative Concentration Pathways ,Earth system science ,Climate change mitigation ,Climatology ,Greenhouse gas ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Environmental science ,Climate sensitivity ,Land use, land-use change and forestry ,business - Abstract
[1] When it comes to modeling climate change, researchers rely on the specification of plausible emissions scenarios to explore how climate will change over the coming century. Using a standardized set of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas scenarios, researchers from different modeling centers can compare results and more methodically assess uncertainty in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. The emissions scenarios used in the past two IPCC reports were published in 2001 and need to be updated to take into account more recent socioeconomic modeling results. In a new study, Arora et al. use a completely new set of scenarios, referred to as representative concentration pathways (RCPs). These will form the basis for new climate projections to be assessed in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (due out in 2014). Using an upgraded Earth system model—which takes into account carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, aerosols, land use change, and the flow of carbon between the atmosphere and the underlying ocean and land surface—the researchers are able to calculate the carbon dioxide emissions compatible with each RCP and, in particular, the emissions reductions required to meet certain levels of global warming. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2010GL046270, 2011)
- Published
- 2011
36. Report on Climate Stabilization Targets Lays Out Potential Impacts
- Author
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Randy Showstack
- Subjects
Runaway climate change ,Climate change mitigation ,Natural resource economics ,Anthropocene ,Anomaly (natural sciences) ,Greenhouse gas ,Climatology ,Global warming ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Environmental science ,Climate change ,Holocene - Abstract
Emissions reduction choices made today are critical in determining impacts that will be experienced not just during the next several decades but also over the coming centuries and millennia, due to the long atmospheric lifetime of carbon dioxide (CO2) and time lags in the climate system. This is according to a new report on climate change that attempts to quantify the outcomes of different stabilization targets for greenhouse gas concentrations. The report, “Climate stabilization targets: Emissions, concentrations, and impacts over decades to millennia,” released on 16 July by a committee of the U.S. National Research Council, indicates that “the Earth is now entering a new geological epoch, sometimes called the Anthropocene, during which the evolution of the planet's environment will be largely controlled by the effects of human activities, notably emissions of carbon dioxide. Actions taken during this century will determine whether the Anthropocene climate anomaly will be a relatively short term and minor deviation from the Holocene climate, or an extreme deviation extending over many thousands of years.”
- Published
- 2010
37. Assessing the benefits of crop albedo bio-geoengineering
- Author
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Andy Ridgwell, Joy S. Singarayer, and Peter J. Irvine
- Subjects
Canopy ,Climate change mitigation ,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment ,Climatology ,Global warming ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,Climate change ,Environmental science ,Climate state ,Precipitation ,Albedo ,General Environmental Science ,HadCM3 - Abstract
It has been proposed that growing crop varieties with higher canopy albedo would lower summer-time temperatures over North America and Eurasia and provide a partial mitigation of global warming (‘bio-geoengineering’) (Ridgwell et al 2009 Curr. Biol. 19 1–5). Here, we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere–vegetation model (HadCM3) with prescribed agricultural regions, to investigate to what extent the regional effectiveness of crop albedo bio-geoengineering might be influenced by a progressively warming climate as well as assessing the impacts on regional hydrological cycling and primary productivity. Consistent with previous analysis, we find that the averted warming due to increasing crop canopy albedo by 0.04 is regionally and seasonally specific, with the largest cooling of ∼1 ◦ C for Europe in summer whereas in the low latitude monsoonal SE Asian regions of high density cropland, the greatest cooling is experienced in winter. In this study we identify potentially important positive impacts of increasing crop canopy albedo on soil moisture and primary productivity in European cropland regions, due to seasonal increases in precipitation. We also find that the background climate state has an important influence on the predicted regional effectiveness of bio-geoengineering on societally-relevant timescales (ca 100 years). The degree of natural climate variability and its dependence on greenhouse forcing that are evident in our simulations highlights the difficulties faced in the detection and verification of climate mitigation in geoengineering schemes. However, despite the small global impact, regionally focused schemes such as crop albedo bio-geoengineering have detection advantages.
- Published
- 2009
38. Geoengineering: Testing the Waters.
- Author
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KLEIN, NAOMI
- Subjects
- *
ENVIRONMENTAL engineering , *GLOBAL warming , *SHORELINES , *POPULATION , *CLIMATE change , *CLIMATOLOGY , *CLIMATE change mitigation , *SEAWATER fertilization - Abstract
The author presents her observation on the ocean experiment conducted by American entrepreneur and geoengineer Russ George in the U.S. She acknowledges the purpose of George's experiment, aimed at reducing the effects of global warming in oceans and skies. However, the author expresses concern on the life-changing consequences of such experiments that could worsen the effects of global warming and climate change.
- Published
- 2012
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