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Estimates of the number of prevalent human immunodeficiency virus infections are used in England and Wales to monitor development of the human immunodeficiency virus–acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemic and for planning purposes. The population is split into risk groups, and estimates of risk group size and of risk group prevalence and diagnosis rates are combined to derive estimates of the number of undiagnosed infections and of the overall number of infected individuals. In traditional approaches, each risk group size, prevalence or diagnosis rate parameter must be informed by just one summary statistic. Yet a rich array of surveillance and other data is available, providing information on parameters and on functions of parameters, and raising the possibility of inconsistency between sources of evidence in some parts of the parameter space. We develop a Bayesian framework for synthesis of surveillance and other information, implemented through Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The sources of data are found to be inconsistent under their accepted interpretation, but the inconsistencies can be resolved by introducing additional ‘bias adjustment’ parameters. The best-fitting model incorporates a hierarchical structure to spread information more evenly over the parameter space. We suggest that multiparameter evidence synthesis opens new avenues in epidemiology based on the coherent summary of available data, assessment of consistency and bias modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines possible sources of data relating to condom use in the context of assessing public response to the AIDS epidemic. Percentage of female population attending family planning clinics by age in England from 1982 to 1993; Reason for using a condom; Impact of using HIV/AIDS public education.

Background Very late diagnosis of HIV isa serious public health issue. We used serious incident reporting (SIR) to identify and address reasons for late diagnoses across the patient pathway. Methods Cases of very late HIV diagnosis were reported via SIR in two 6-month batches between 2011 and 2012 in Bournemouth, Poole and Bristol. Case notes were reviewed for missed opportunities for earlier diagnosis using a root-cause analysis tool. Results A total of 33 patients (aged 30-67 years, 66% male) were diagnosed very late. Although the majority were white British (n = 17), Black African (n = 9) and Eastern European (n = 4) ethnicities were over-represented. Twenty-four (73%) patients had clinical indicator conditions for HIV, 30(91 %) had a risk factor for HIV acquisition, with 13 (39%) having 2 or more (men-who-have-sex-with-men (n =11), partner HIV positive (n = 11), from high-prevalence area (n = 12)). Actions resulting from SIR included increasing awareness of indicator conditions, HIV education days within primary care, and initiatives to increase testing within hospital specialities. Conclusions SIR allowed identification of reasons for very late HIV diagnosis and provided an impetus for initiatives to address them. SIR maybe part of an effective strategy to prevent late diagnosis of HIV which would have important benefits for individual and population health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To examine the epidemiology of HIV among block and minority ethnic (BME) men who have sex with men (MSM) in England and Wales (E&W). Methods: Ethnicity data from two national HIV/AIDS surveillance systems were reviewed (1997-2002 inclusive), providing information on new HIV diagnoses and those accessing NHS HIV treatment and care services. In addition, undiagnosed HIV prevalence among MSM offending 14 genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics participating in the Unlinked Anonymous Prevalence Monitoring Programme and having routine syphilis serology was examined by world region of birth. Results: Between 1997 and 2002, 1040 BME MSM were newly diagnosed with HIV in E&W, representing 12% of all new diagnoses reported among MSM. of the 1040 BME MSM, 27% were black Caribbean, 12% black African, 10% black other, 8% Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi, and 44% other/mixed. Where reported (n = 395), 58% of BME MSM were probably infected in the United Kingdom. An estimated 7.4% (approximate 95% CI: 4.4% to 12.5%) of BME MSM aged 16-44 in E&W were living with diagnosed HIV in 2002 compared with 3.2% (approximate 95% CI: 2.6% to 3.9%) of white MSM (p<0.001). Of Caribbean born MSM attending GUM clinics between 1997 and 2002, the proportion with undiagnosed HIV infection was 15.8% (95% CI: 11 .7% to 20.8%), while among MSM born in other regions it remained below 6.0%. Conclusions: Between 1997-2002, BME MSM accounted for just over one in 10 new HIV diagnoses among MSM in E&W; more than half probably acquired their infection in the United Kingdom. In 2002, the proportion of BME MSM living with diagnosed HIV in E&W was significantly higher than white MSM. Undiagnosed HIV prevalence in Caribbean born MSM was high. These data confirm the need to remain alert to the sexual health needs and evolving epidemiology of HIV among BME MSM in E&W. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To assess the impact of the sexual component of AIDS and HIV campaigns on transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs).Design: Comparison of time series data.Setting: England, 1971-1999.Outcome Measures: HIV transmission and diagnoses among men who have sex with men (MSMs), rates of attendances and specific STI diagnoses (per 100 000 total population) at genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics.Results: Awareness of AIDS and campaigns in 1983-4 among homosexual men coincided with substantial declines in transmission of HIV and diagnoses of syphilis among MSMs. During general population campaigns in 1986-7 new GUM clinic attendances requiring treatment fell by 117/10(5) in men and 42/10(5) in women. Rates for gonorrhoea fell by 81/10(5) and 43/10(5) and genital herpes by 6/10(5) and 4/10(5), respectively. Previous rises in genital wart rates were interrupted, while rates of attendances not requiring treatment (the "worried well") increased by 47/10(5) and 58/10(5) for men and women, respectively. Since 1987 diagnoses of HIV among MSMs have not declined, averaging 1300-1400 annually. Following a period of unchanging rates there have been substantial increases in GUM attendances requiring treatment, notably for gonorrhoea, syphilis, and viral STIs since 1995.Conclusions: Self help initiatives and awareness among homosexual men in 1983-4 contributed significantly to a fall in HIV transmission among MSMs, and the general campaigns of 1986-7 were associated with similar effects on all STI transmission. Both effects seem to have occurred through changing sexual behaviour, and probably contributed to the UK's low national HIV prevalence. Bacterial STI incidence has increased significantly since 1995 and there is no evidence that recent prevention initiatives have reduced HIV transmission among MSMs, hence sexual health initiatives need to be comprehensively reinvigorated in England. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]