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This paper presents the methodology for assessment of drought episodes and their potential effects on winter and spring cereal crops in the Czech Republic (in the text referred to as Czechia). Historical climate and crop yields data for the period of 47 years (1961–2007) have been integrated into an agrometeorological database. The drought episodes were determined by three methods: according to the values of the standardized precipitation index (SPI), percentage of long-term precipitations ( r), and on the basis of the Ped drought index ( Si). Consequently, the combined SPI, Si, and r indices have been used as tools in identification of the severity, frequency, and extent of drought episodes. Additionally, the paper also presents the Si drought index and its potential use for real-time monitoring of spatial extension and severity of droughts in Czechia. The drought risk to crops was analyzed by identifying the relationships between the fluctuation of crop yields and drought index ( Si) based on the multiple regression analysis with stepwise selection. In general, models explain that a high percentage of the variability of the yield is due to drought (more than 45% of yield variance). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in climatic conditions increase risks associated with crop production in certain regions. Early detection of these changes enables the implementation of suitable adaptation measures in the local area, thereby stabilising agricultural production. Our analysis shows a significant shift in climatic conditions in Czechia between 1961 and 2020. We examined the changes in observed temperature conditions, precipitation distribution, drought occurrences, and frost incidents at a high resolution (0.5 × 0.5 km). The outputs show a significant increase in air temperatures and drought occurrence. Temperature totals above 5 °C in 1991–2020 were 15% higher than in 1961–1990. Furthermore, the relative change in totals above 10 °C was 26% after 1991. Over the last 30 years, drought incidence was four times more frequent than in 1961–1990, particularly in spring. In contrast, no significant changes in the distribution of precipitation occurred, and there was a slight decrease in the probability of frost during the growing season. Ongoing climate change brings warmer and drier conditions to higher-altitude regions in Czechia. Assessing climatic conditions on a global scale is less precise for relatively small and topographically diverse countries like Czechia due to coarse resolution. Therefore, a high-resolution analysis is more appropriate for these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]