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Identifying the climatic characterization of a region and its spatial and temporal variation, as well as its changes in the face of climate change events, is essential for agrometeorological studies because they can assist in the planning of strategies that reduce the negative impacts generated in the cultures exposed to critical climatic conditions. Thus, this study aimed to characterize the climatic conditions of the MATOPIBA region and its changes in scenarios of climate change using the classification index of Thornthwaite. Daily time series of rainfall and temperature data in the 1950–1990 period were used, covering 467 points over the studied region. The data set was used to estimate climatological water balance and climate index Thornthwaite (1948), and obtain the trends climatological according to IPCC (2014) climate change projections, with changes in the average air temperature (+ 1.5 °C and − 1.5 °C) and precipitation (+ 30% and − 30%). The MATOPIBA region is characterized by its humid, dry subhumid, and moist subhumid climate, with the rainy seasons, between October and April, and drought, from May to September, well defined. In MATOPIBA climate change scenarios, climatic extreme indices tend to alter the pattern, frequency, and distribution of climate class, which can increase climate risk and impact crop production. Therefore, the results obtained can be used to develop strategies to mitigate the vulnerability of crops to climate change conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]