Search

Background The aims of this study were to review and update previous projections of the number of proximal femoral fractures in the Northern Ireland population and to ascertain if the trend of increasing age-specific fracture incidence was continuing. Methods Data from 1985 to 1997 was obtained from hospital theatre records to ascertain the number of surgical procedures for proximal femoral fracture. Data for the years 2005 and 2010 was obtained from Northern Ireland's Fracture Outcomes Research Database (FORD) and locally held records in one region not then using FORD. Demographic details were obtained from data published by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. Age-specific fracture rates were calculated for males and females in 5 year age brackets and for populations aged 50+ and 65+. Updated projections for the number of proximal femoral fractures by 2020 were made assuming the continuation of the same age-specific fracture rates observed in 2010. Results From 1997 to 2010 the age-specific fracture incidence has fallen or plateaued across most observed age and sex subgroups. Over the period 2010 to 2020, male and female fracture numbers are projected to increase by 23% and 21% respectively which equates to approximately 400 extra proximal femoral fractures. Conclusion Over the next decade there will be an increasing burden on Northern Irish healthcare resources attributed to a rise in the number of proximal femoral fractures. The age-specific fracture rates in this population are no longer rising and hence the expected increase in healthcare costs is primarily a consequence of the anticipated changing demographic trends.

Objective: To calculate the best possible estimates for age specific life expectancy (LE) and anticipated age at the time of death (AAD) in patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD) compared with the general population in the UK. These may be of greater value to patients than standardised mortality ratios (SMRs), which are usually reported in studies on mortality in PD. Methods: A literature review identified articles with data on age stratified life expectancy or SMRs to calculate estimations of LE using the Gompertz function and data on mortality and LE in the UK from the Office of National Statistics and Actuarial Department for the year 2003. Results: Two UK studies and four from Western Europe were used to estimate LE and AAD for patients with PD from SMRs. The mean LEs of patients with PD compared with the general population were: 38 (SD 5) years for onset between 25 and 39 years compared with 49 (SD 5) years; 21 (SD 5) years for onset between 40 and 64 years compared with 31 (SD 7) years; and 5 (SD 4) years for onset age ⩾65 years compared with 9 (SD 5) years. The average AAD of patients with PD with onset between 25 and 39 years was 71 (SD 3) years and considerably lower than that of the general population (82 (SD 2) years). The difference between average AAD for older individuals with PD (onset ⩾65 years) and the general population was smaller, with an AAD of approximately 88 (SD 7) years compared with 91 (SD 5) years. Conclusions: The calculations showed that LE and AAD in PD are reduced for all onset ages but this reduction is greatest in individuals with a young onset. While the results are average estimates, these can provide useful indications of LE and AAD.

Aim: The clinical and epidemiological characteristics of chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP) in an Italian population were assessed. Subjects and methods: All subjects with a diagnosis of demyelinating neuropathy after 1990 in Piemonte and Valle d’Aosta (4 334 225 inhabitants) were considered. The diagnosis of CIDP was based on the research criteria of the American Academy of Neurology. 165 of 294 patients met the diagnostic criteria. Results: The crude prevalence rate was 3.58/100 000 population (95% CI 3.02 to 4.20). At the prevalence day, 76 (49.0%) cases had definite, 67 (43.2%) probable and 12 (7.7%) possible CIDP; disability was mild in 105 (67.7%) cases, moderate in 32 (20.6%) and severe in 18 (11.6%). The course was remitting–relapsing in 40 cases (25.8%), chronic progressive in 96 (61.9%) and monophasic in 19 (12.3%). Considering the 95 patients whose disorder presented in the period 1995–2001, the mean annual crude incidence rate was 0.36/100 000 population (95% CI 0.29 to 0.44), with a male to female ratio of 2.3:1. 14 cases were affected by diabetes mellitus. In multivariate analysis, factors related to severe disability at the prevalence day were: age>60 years; failure of immunomodulating therapies at the time of diagnosis; worse disability at nadir; and chronic course. Conclusion: Incidence and prevalence rates of CIDP in Italy were higher than those observed in most previous studies. At the prevalence day, more than 80% of cases had a mild or moderate disability, indicating either a good response to immunomodulating therapy or a tendency of CIDP to have a mild course in most cases.

Background and aim: To update our 1996 review on the incidence of subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) and assess the relation of incidence with region, age, gender and time period.Methods: We searched for studies on the incidence of SAH published until October 2005. The overall incidences with corresponding 95% confidence intervals were calculated. We determined the relationship between the incidence of SAH and determinants by means of univariate Poisson regression.Results: We included 51 studies (33 new), describing 58 study populations in 21 countries, observing 45 821 896 person-years. Incidences per 100 000 person-years were 22.7 (95% CI 21.9 to 23.5) in Japan, 19.7 (18.1 to 21.3) in Finland, 4.2 (3.1 to 5.7) in South and Central America, and 9.1 (8.8 to 9.5) in the other regions. With age category 45-55 years as the reference, incidence ratios increased from 0.10 (0.08 to 0.14) for age groups younger than 25 years to 1.61 (1.24 to 2.07) for age groups older than 85 years. The incidence in women was 1.24 (1.09 to 1.42) times higher than in men; this gender difference started at age 55 years and increased thereafter. Between 1950 and 2005, the incidence decreased by 0.6% (1.3% decrease to 0.1% increase) per year.Conclusions: The overall incidence of SAH is approximately 9 per 100 000 person-years. Rates are higher in Japan and Finland and increase with age. The preponderance of women starts only in the sixth decade. The decline in incidence of SAH over the past 45 years is relatively moderate compared with that for stroke in general.

Objective Advances in surgical, anaesthetic and percutaneous interventional techniques may have led to higher risk patients being referred for coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG). The purpose of this study was to compare the predicted mortality risk (EuroSCORE) of a contemporary cohort of patients referred for isolated elective CABG (2002) with that of a cohort referred five years previously (1997) and to examine temporal trends in patient demographics. Methods Records (n = 2873) of weekly cardiac surgical referral meetings were examined and the age, sex, type of operation and surgical decision for every patient referred from 1997 to 2002 inclusive were recorded. Furthermore samples of patients referred in 1997 (n = 111) and in 2002 (n = 110) were chosen, and a complete EuroSCORE was calculated for each patient and compared between groups. Results In both 1997 and 2002 the median EuroSCORE among patients not accepted for surgery was significantly higher than those accepted (1997; 3 vs 2, p

Background An ageing population has service planners concerned about future levels of disease which are age dependent. Predictions of mortality for colorectal, lung and breast cancers, which account for 30% of cancer cases and 40% of cancers deaths, were calculated for 2010 and 2015, based on trends in death rates and the predicted change in the demography of the Northern Ireland population. Methods The US National Cancer Institute's “Joinpoint” program was used to check for structural breaks in the time series of cancer death rates from 1984 to 2004. The prediction models applied to the data allowed variations in trends across age groups to be taken into account. A linear model was used for increasing or constant trends and a log linear model was used where the trend was decreasing. The models assume the number of deaths in each stratum, defined by age-sex and time-period, is Poisson distributed, with the average value determined by a log or linear function. Results Recent trends in rates of cancers studied were downwards except for female lung. Predictions include decreased colorectal cancer deaths in females and lung cancer deaths in males. In females, lung cancer deaths are predicted to more than double by the year 2015 (473 deaths), based on the 1984 level. Colorectal death rates in males are predicted to drop, but the number of deaths will increase by more than 10%, due to demographic change. Numbers of breast cancer deaths are likely to rise slightly, despite falling age standardised death rates, due to an ageing population. Conclusions This work has provided estimates of early future trends, useful to service planners, and highlights the need for tobacco control, to reduce numbers of lung cancer deaths in females. The recently announced control of environmental tobacco legislation is one welcome development which should reduce lung cancer mortality in Northern Ireland.

Background: While the incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is similar across the world (range, 1.0 to 2.5/100 000), a latitude gradient from north to south has been observed. Objective: To determine the incidence of ALS in Puglia, a region of south eastern Italy, and to test the latitude gradient hypothesis comparing the present study with findings in studies conducted with the same design in a northern latitude. Methods: Puglia (4 086 613 residents in 2001) is the site of a multicentre-multisource prospective population based registry established in 1997. All incident ALS cases during the period 1998–99 were enrolled and followed up. Cases were classified using the first and the revised El Escorial criteria. Results: During the study period 130 cases were enrolled. The annual crude incidence for ALS in Puglia for the two year period 1998–99 was 1.6/100 000 (95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 1.9). The incidence was higher for men (incidence rate (IR) = 2.1 (1.7 to 2.7) than for women (IR = 1.2 (0.9 to 1.5)) in all age groups, with a male to female ratio of 1.6. For both men and women, the incidence increased through age 75 and declined rapidly afterwards. The mean annual incidence adjusted by age and sex to the 2001 Italian population was 1.7/100 000 (1.4 to 2.0). Conclusions: ALS incidence is within a narrow range across countries, with a peak between 65 and 75 years and a higher incidence in men . A north to south latitude gradient of ALS incidence is not supported by the results of cohort studies.

Background: Most clinical data for multiple sclerosis are hospital based—that is, derived from patients referred to clinics specialising in the disease. Objectives: To present data derived from two population based multiple sclerosis populations, an incidence cohort and a prevalence population, from Vasterbotten County, northern Sweden. Methods: The two populations were identified from multiple sources, and case ascertainment was assured through a personal clinical review, including interviews and examination of the patients. Results: Characteristics at onset for the different clinical subtypes of multiple sclerosis are presented, including the clinical spectrum of the first attack, the anatomical correlation between the first and second attacks, sex distribution, and disability distribution. Conclusions: Based on the comparison of present and earlier natural history data, multiple sclerosis appears to be a slightly more benign disease than previously recognised.

Objective: To describe the occurrence of myasthenia gravis in the Baltic area. Methods: Data were obtained from hospital files recorded during the period 1942 to 1996 from neurologists and the patient organisation. Survival data were checked with the Estonian Citizenship and Migration Board. Prevalence was determined on 1 January 1997. A questionnaire on the course of myasthenia gravis was sent to all the prevalent patients. Results: The size of the population surveyed was 1 462 130. The average annual incidence from 1970 to 1996 was 4.0 per million (women, 5.2; men, 2.6). The point prevalence was 99 per million (women, 133; men 59). The incidence in the younger age group (

Objective: To study the demographic characteristics of patients with carpal tunnel syndrome and changes in incidence over time. Methods: Prospective collection of neurophysiological and clinical data on all patients presenting to the subregional department of clinical neurophysiology in Canterbury, UK, from 1992 to 2001 and to the electromyography clinic in St Luke's Hospital, Huddersfield, UK, from 1991 to 1993. Results: 6245 new cases of neurophysiologically confirmed carpal tunnel syndrome were identified in Canterbury and 590 in Huddersfield. The average annual incidences (per 100 000) were 139.4 for women and 67.2 for men in East Kent, and 83.2 for women and 48.0 for men in Huddersfield. Corrected to the WHO European standard population these rates were 120.5 for women and 60.0 for men in East Kent, and 61.5 for women and 35.0 for men in Huddersfield. Between 1992 and 2001 there was an increase in the number of confirmed cases in East Kent but a decrease in their average severity. The age distributions were bimodal with a peak in the 50–54 age group and a second peak between 75 and 84 years. Over half the cases were bilateral. The disorder was consistently worse in the elderly, and more severe in men than in women in all age groups. Conclusions: The age distributions of unselected cases of carpal tunnel syndrome in both clinics differ markedly from that usually portrayed in surgical series. There was a significant increase in cases diagnosed between 1992 and 2001 in Canterbury, probably the result of increased ascertainment of milder cases. Median nerve impairment is more severe in the elderly and in men at all ages.

Objectives: To ascertain the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in the islands of Malta and compare it with a previous study undertaken 21 years earlier, when a remarkably low prevalence was found. Method: Deaths with MS on the death certificate since the last study were reviewed. Sources of information about new patients were the Hospital Activity Analysis scheme, the MS Society of Malta, the records of the state hospitals, long stay private hospitals and nursing homes, lists provided by the state pharmacies, and magnetic resonance imaging, cerebrospinal fluid, and evoked response studies. Prevalence day was 1 January 1999. The Poser classification was used. Results: Since 1978, 17 patients had died with a verified diagnosis of MS on the death certificate. They included all 10 deaths with MS from the original study and two immigrants. Fifty patients had clinically definite MS (CDMS) and 13 clinically probable MS (CPMS). The prevalence of CDMS was 13.2/100 000 (male 11.2, female 15.2). The prevalence of CDMS and CPMS combined was 16.7/100 000 (male 13.3, female 19.9). The annual incidence was 0.7/100 000. Twelve patients were found with CDMS among the 7213 immigrants resident in Malta (166/100 000). The expected rate was 1/100 000, determined at Maltese born rates. There were major changes in the population distribution during the 21 years between the two studies, with a big increase in the age groups with a high risk of MS. There is a longer expectation of life and the diagnosis in now made earlier. Conclusion: Malta still has a low MS prevalence. In comparison with Sicily and other Mediterranean countries of Europe it offers an opportunity to ascertain the genetic and environmental factors responsible for the disease.

Objectives To assess the levels of physical activity and other health related behaviours of General Practitioners (GPs) and compare their reported levels of physical activity with those of the general population. Study Design Cross sectional postal questionnaire survey. Methods A questionnaire, which did not allow identification of individual respondents, was posted to all 1074 (GPs) in Northern Ireland. It included the validated International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) and questions relating to smoking and alcohol consumption. A national survey of a representative sample of the general population of similar age (29-67 years; n = 3010) provided comparative data. Results 735 GPs responded (68.4%). IPAQ data indicated that fewer GPs (43.4%) were “physically inactive” compared to the general population (56.2%) (p

Background Smoking causes 85% of all lung cancers in males and 70% in females. Therefore, birth cohort analysis and annual-percent-changes (APC) in age-specific lung cancer mortality rates, particularly in the youngest age cohorts, can explain the beneficial impacts of both past and recent anti-smoking interventions. Methods A long-term time-trend analysis (1958-2002) in lung cancer mortality rates focusing on the youngest age-cohorts (30-49 years of age) in particular was investigated in Ireland. The rates were standardised to the World Standard Population. Lung cancer mortality data were downloaded from the WHO Cancer Mortality Database to estimate APCs in death rates, using the Joinpoint regression (version 3.0) program. A simple age-cohort modelling (log-linear Poisson model) was also done, using SAS software. Results The youngest birth cohorts (born after 1965) have almost one-fourth lower lung cancer risk relative to those born around the First World War. A more than 50% relative decline in death rates among those between 35 and 39 years of age was observed in both sexes in recent years. The youngest age-cohorts (30-39 years of age) in males also showed a significant decrease in death rates in 1998-2002 by more than 3% every five years from 1958-1962 onwards. However, death rate declines in females are slower. Conclusions The youngest birth cohorts had the lowest lung cancer risk and also showed a significant decreasing lung cancer death rate in the most recent years. Such temporal patterns indicate the beneficial impacts of both recent and past tobacco control efforts in Ireland. However, the decline in younger female cohorts is slower. A comprehensive national tobacco control program enforced on evidence-based policies elsewhere can further accelerate a decline in death rates, especially among the younger generations.

To determine if myasthenia gravis (MG) with antibodies to MuSK is a distinct subgroup of seronegative MG.We assayed antibodies to muscle specific tyrosine kinase (MuSK) in 55 MG patients who had no antibodies to acetylcholine receptors and looked for the specific phenotype, comparing clinical features of anti-MuSK positive and anti-MuSK negative MG patients.MG with anti-MuSK antibodies was characterised by a striking prevalence of female patients (15 women, two men). Age at onset ranged from 22 to 52 years, with 70.6% of patients presenting at40 years of age. The majority of patients (82.4%) had prevalent involvement of facial and bulbar muscles. One third of them did not respond well to anticholinesterase drugs. Steroid immunosuppression was effective in eight patients (44.4%). Nine patients underwent thymectomy; six of these had no thymus pathology, while three had a hyperplastic thymus. At the end of the observation period, six (35.3%) patients were in remission, five (29.4%) improved, four (23.6%) did not change, and two (11.7%) had died.MG patients with antibodies to MuSK have characteristic clinical features that are different from features of the remaining seronegative MG patients. This emphasises the predictive value of anti-MuSK antibody analysis in seronegative MG patients.

The study investigated the relationship between shiftwork and mortality, both total mortality and cause-specific mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and diabetes. Methods The cohort consisted of 2354 shiftworkers and 3088 dayworkers in two pulp and paper manufacturing plants. The mortality of the cohort was monitored from 1 January 1952 to 31 December 2001 by linkage to the national Cause of Death Register. Groups of workers defined by different durations of shiftwork exposure were compared with dayworkers by calculating standardized relative rates (SRR).Death due to any cause (total mortality) was not higher among the shiftworkers than among the dayworkers [SRR 1.02, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.93-1.11]. A longer duration of shiftwork was associated with an increased risk of CHD, and shiftworkers with30 years of shiftwork had the highest risk of CHD (SRR 1.24, 95% CI 1.04-1.49) Diabetes was more common as the number of shift years of exposure increased [b(linear coefficient) = 4.14 x 10(-5), 95% CI 2.46 x 10(-5) -5.81 x 10(-5)]. Compared with dayworkers, shiftworkers had a greater risk of death due to stroke (SRR 1.56, 95% CI 0.98-2.51).In the present study, no general increase in mortality was observed among shiftworkers when they were compared with dayworkers. However, the results demonstrate an increased mortality from CHD among shiftworkers with a long duration of shiftwork exposure. Mortality due to diabetes also increased as the number of shift years and mortality due to ischemic stroke in shiftworkers increased.

To evaluate mortality and cancer incidence in a cohort of workers employed in the New Zealand pulp and paper industry, and to identify the exposures responsible for any increased risk.A total of 8456 workers employed for at least one year in three pulp and paper mills between 1978 and 1990 were followed up until 1992. The observed number of deaths and cancer cases was compared with expected numbers calculated using five-year age-specific rates for the New Zealand population.Vital status was determined for 81% of the cohort, and for 93% of the total person-years at risk. Mortality from all causes (standardised mortality ratios (SMR) = 0.80, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.71-0.89; 314 deaths), and from all malignant neoplasms (SMR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.78-1.15, 103 deaths), was lower than expected. Mortality from lung cancer (SMR = 1.33, 95% CI 0.94-1.83, 37 deaths) was marginally increased.No overall increase in mortality from cancer or other causes was observed in this cohort. A small increase in lung cancer risk is suggested, although this was not statistically significant. Numbers of cases were too small for detailed analyses of associations between disease and specific exposures.

Objectives The study investigated cancer incidence among 23 718 male pulp and paper workers employed continuously for at least 1 year between 1920 and 1993 in Norway. Methods The name, date of birth, personal identification number, dates of hire and termination for all employment periods, specific department, and job categories were registered for each worker. Six subcohorts were established (sulfite mill, sulfate mill, paper mill, maintenance department, administrative staff and other departments). Data on the cohort were linked with data in the Norwegian Cancer Register. The follow-up period for cancer incidence, date of death, or emigration was from 1953 through 1993. Results An excess incidence of lung cancer was found among both short- and long-term employees [standardized incidence ratio (SIR) 1.5, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.13-2.03 and SIR 1.2, 95% CI 1.09-1.34, respectively], especially for workers with the longest latency (SIR 1.3, 95% CI 1.08-1.44) and for sulfite mill workers (SIR 1.5, 95% CI 1.09-1.99). The risk for pleural mesothelioma was also increased (SIR 2.4, 95% CI 1.45-3.75), especially among maintenance workers. The results also showed an increased risk for malignant melanoma (SIR 1.3, 95% CI 1.04-1.60), an unexpected finding. Conclusion Almost all the increased risk for lung cancer can be explained by a combination of smoking habits and asbestos use, although an effect of other work-related exposures (sulfur and chloride compounds, wood dust) cannot be excluded. Most of the cases of pleural mesothelioma occurred in departments where asbestos was used. There is no clear explanation for the excess of malignant melanoma, and the finding may be a chance occurrence.