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In this article, Maryland's non-legal-tender paper money emissions between 1765 and 1775 are reconstructed to determine quantities outstanding and redemption dates, providing a substantial correction to the literature. Over 80 per cent of this paper money's current market value was expected real asset present value and under 20 per cent was liquidity premium. It was primarily a real barter asset and not a fiat currency. The liquidity premium was positively related to the amount of paper money per capita in circulation. This paper money traded below face value due to time-discounting, rather than depreciation. Past scholars have simply confused depreciation with time-discounting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses paper money issues in the American colonies from 1720 to 1774. Misinterpretation of the colonial monetary policies; Overview of the political background of British monetary policies in the colonies; Controversy over colonial practices during the period.

A feature of U.S. postwar business cycle experience that is by now widely documented is the tendency of the spread between the respective interest rates on commercial paper and Treasury bills to widen shortly before the onset of recessions. By contrast, the paper-bill spread did not anticipate the 1990-1991 recession. Empirical work presented in this paper supports two (not mutually exclusive) explanations for this departure from past experience. First, at least part of the paper-bill spread's predictive content with respect to business cycle fluctuations stems from its role as an indicator of monetary policy, but the 1990-1991 recession was unusual in postwar U.S. experience in not being immediately precipitated by tight monetary policy. Second, movements of the spread during the few years just prior to the 1990-1991 recession were strongly influenced by changes in the relative quantities of commercial paper, bank CDs, and Treasury bills that occurred for reasons unrelated to the business cycle. This latter finding in particular sheds light on the important role of imperfect substitutability of different short-term debt instruments in investors' portfolios, and highlights the burdens associated with using relative interest rate relationships as business cycle indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic effects of public policy alternatives often are analyzed with simulation models. The value of simulation is enhanced when model parameters can credibly be estimated econometrically. But unrestricted estimation can be expected to result in problematic estimates, for example, estimated parameters contrary in sign to what economic theory dictates. The information contract curve (ICC), developed by Leamer, provides a flexible means to impose regularity on estimated parameters at minimum-likelihood cost. We extend the ICC methodology, using conically uniform priors, and apply it to measuring the welfare costs of environmental regulations in the U.S. pulp, paper, and paperboard industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the development of the market economy, agricultural trade has become more and more significant for the development of the agricultural economy, which has triggered people's further thinking and exploration on the impact of agricultural trade on agricultural carbon emissions. This paper takes the measurement of trade implied carbon as the carbon dioxide emission index under the impact of agricultural trade and analyzes the impact of trade implied carbon and implied carbon balance on carbon emission. Taking the impact of Sino-US agricultural trade as an empirical background, this paper measures the impact of environmental changes in agricultural trade opening on China's agricultural development and its carbon emissions, so as to predict changes in China's regional agricultural carbon emissions performance. After calculation, it is found that the scale of China's exports has decreased by 0.089%, which is lower than the decline of 0.361% in the United States. The trade conflict has a significant impact on China's import and export structure. Under the scenario of mutual tariffs on agricultural products, China's exports to the United States are expected to decrease by 6.28%, while China's imports from the United States decreased by 13.02%. The Sino-US agricultural trade dispute will reduce China's carbon emissions by 0.013% and the United States' carbon emissions by 0.024%, which is related to the negative impact on the economy. Improving the performance of agricultural carbon emissions is not only the need for the green and sustainable development of the agricultural economy but also conducive to improving the international competitiveness of agricultural products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1963 economists Milton Friedman and David Meiselman published a paper for the Commission on "Money and Credit," in which they attempt to test the relative predictive power of Keynesian and monetary theories of business fluctuations. Their methods and conclusions were sharply disputed in papers by scholars Donald Hester, Albert Ando and Franco Modigliani, and Michael DePrano and Thomas Mayer. The purpose is to review this controversy. The method is the simple one of first replicating the studies over the original sample periods and then examining the postsample performance of the competing equations. On a sociological level there can be little doubt that this controversy was and continues to be, enormously valuable. Many economists have been stimulated to work on the questions disputed by the monetarist and Keynesian combatants and it is probably correct to argue that two models of the U.S. economy are a direct outgrowth of the controversy. What has been missing from this continuing controversy, however, is an ex post evaluation of the earlier empirical work.

The article discusses the different policy responses for unemployment benefits and jobs subsidies in a group of noncoastal states east of the Mississippi River that they call the eastern heartland. The seven principles that the authors used to assess the economic policy proposal are explored. Some of the rich theories of the possible solutions to the economic malaise of the eastern heartland are also offered.

The article comments on the underlying theory and the conclusions on economic policy derived from the proposals by Professor Ragnar Frisch for a thorough study of balance of payments broken down by countries and currencies. Several countries, short of foreign exchange, balance their imports by state control at the amount available from exports and other sources; any increase in exports enables them to import more, any decrease in exports forces them to import less. In the U.S., on the other hand, the volume of imports is determined by private importers independently of the reserve position of the country; the total volume of imports is below the level determined by national income and relative prices, and no change of exports would influence the actual volume of imports. In these conditions, discrimination against imports from the U.S. will increase world trade.

This paper assesses economics research and teaching frameworks in the United States by examining how knowledge is produced; the strengths and flaws of heterodox economic theory; and how students are trained, especially for careers in economic policy. We challenge the meaning of established terminology such as ‘heterodoxy’ and ‘mainstream.’ Three major reasons are suggested for the disappointing reality that pluralist economics among academic institutions, the broader public, and a new generation of economists has not happened: 1) neoclassical hegemony; 2) weakness in heterodox theory, and 3) rigidity of pedagogy and training in economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung Discussion Papers is the property of Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article discusses the effect on income of Phase II of the wage-price control program of the United States. Several discussants commented on the issue of income shares under the Phase II program. R. A. Gordon, William Branson, and others noted that, with productivity growing exceptionally fast because of the rapid cyclical expansion expected in the economy, profit margins would widen so much that some cost absorption by business would still permit the profit share to expand. Arthur Okun noted that Perry's neutrality was defined as the state of income shares that would prevail in the absence of the program and that the cyclical expansion of profit margins that we are experiencing would have occurred anyhow. Gardner Ackley argued that we did not know enough about what has happened to price-cost relations in recent years to take any strong position about what income shares should be. Therefore Perry's neutrality concept should not override the need to slow inflation, and some cost absorption was appropriate as a way to help accomplish this. James Duesenberry and Michael Posner felt that the most serious practical problem was not the question of existing income shares but rather delivering on the promise to slow prices noticeably. The trade unions are reluctant to accept wage controls because they have little faith that the inflation will slow down. Differing views were expressed on the use of profit margin ceilings in Phase II. Alan Greenspan pointed out that the application of the rules on the basis of the margins of individual firms would hold down overall prices and margins more than people thought.

A stochastic framework for coordination of macroeconomic policies is introduced in this paper. It is suggested that: (i) measures of policy accountability should allow for the climate of uncertainty that surrounds policy decisions, and (ii) most models of aggregate economic activity impose arbitrary specifications of uncertainty that do not appear to be empirically justifiable. Ambiguities in interpreting the Humphrey-Hawkins reports of policy authorities are sketched in section II; a proposal for maximizing the ex ante prospects of policy objectives is illustrated in section III; finally, nonstationary allocations of uncertainty are discussed in sections IV and V. This paper provides a brief survey of ongoing work by members of the Federal Reserve Board staff on the role of uncertainty in policy forecasts. It suggests that policy discussion could be improved by more explicit consideration of the allocation of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the effects of low inflation on unemployment in the U.S. A research by the economists George Perry and William Brainard suggests that a large long-run increases in unemployment from permanent reductions in inflation to zero. It was also found that a permanent reduction in annual inflation from two percent to zero would increase unemployment by 1.5% points. In their benchmark ignored expectations simulations, the researchers found that a decline in annual inflation from 2.6% to zero has yielded a 1.5% point increase in unemployment.

The article comments on three papers within the issue: "Long-Term Effects of Government Deficits on the U.S. Output Potential," by George von Furstenburg, "Capital Formation and the Recent Productivity Slowdown," by Peter Clark, and "U.S. Productivity Growth Recession: History and Prospects for the Future," by Michael McCarthy. The author discusses each article and criticizes their shortcomings. He looks at von Furstenburg's use of the Phelps-Shell model of dynamic economic growth and notes the usefulness of neoclassical growth theory. The author feels that his discussion on the effects of government deficits on output growth or productivity represent a fruitful economic analysis innovation.

The article sheds light on commercial banking in the United States during the sixties. The article makes the conclusion that if the trends emerging in the late 1950s and in 1960 are not reversed by major changes in economic conditions or tax and regulatory policy, then the commercial banks will be unable to play as important a role in financing the 1960s as they have done in previous years. The article's conclusion is based on the expectation that in all years, except those of recession, bank deposits will continue to expand at a slower rate than the growth of the gross national product.

This article comments on a paper by Stephen Cecchetti which outlined and evaluated the challenges of designing short- and medium-run monetary policy for controlling inflation in the U.S. The paper reached four significant conclusions: (1) forecasts of inflation are inaccurate; (2) inflation forecasting rules and the dynamic multipliers are temporally unstable; (3) even if dynamic multipliers are assumed stable, they are imprecisely estimated; and (4) an objective function targeting nominal income is more robust than an objective function targeting inflation. Cecchetti's paper reported large root-mean-square errors (RMSE) for inflation forecasts. It showed that these large RMSE obtain for commercial forecasts, naive time-series forecasts, and bivariate regression forecasts constructed using a large set of inflation leading indicators. He also reported dramatic evidence of temporal instability in forecasting rules. Using tests for time-varying regression coefficients, Cecchetti investigated stability in the univariate auto-regression explaining inflation and bivariate forecasting models constructed from leading indicators of inflation. The null hypothesis of stability is rejected in all of the models.

This paper considers the macroeconomics of the oil price for the United States. It investigates the impact of large oil price hikes in a standard VAR framework by introducing a new Markov switching based oil price specification. The explanatory power of this new specification is compared to that of a number of prominent non-linear specifications. The key findings are: (1) the new oil price specification is appropriate in both empirical and theoretical terms and allows for a well-founded distinction between "large" and "normal" oil price increases. (2) The observed impact of oil price shocks on real GDP growth is largely attributable to no fewer than three large oil price increases, namely those of 1973-74, 1979 and 1991, while variables such as consumer and import prices are also affected by normal oil price increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article comments on a paper by Hanming Fang and Michael Keane which assessed the impact of welfare reforms that were introduced in the U.S. during the mid-1990s. A key problem in this literature is how to parameterize the reforms in a way that allows them to be clearly distinguished from other changes that occurred at the same time, including a major economic boom and changes in closely related policies, such as the minimum wage and the earned income tax credit. Fang and Keane have done an impressive job of coding detailed state-level policy changes, with much more sophistication than previous papers. For instance, rather than use a dummy variable to indicate whether a time limit is in effect, they try to find variables that differentiate between the anticipatory behavioral effects of time limits and the effects that occur once enough time has passed that some women are facing benefit losses due to time limits. In fact, many would argue that Fang and Keane's approach to this problem is wrongly specified from the start, since they are trying to estimate a final outcome with panel data created from sequential cross sections. Generally, the authors have performed a useful service in carefully coding state-specific changes in the components of welfare reform and are creative in trying to use this information to identify policy effects better than the existing literature has.

The article offers a discussion of the different policy responses for unemployment benefits and jobs subsidies in the U.S. An evidence in the literature on the causal relationship between unemployment and opioid use and the national uniformity of the Earned Income Tax Credit and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program are explored. The political economy objections to place-based policies and the potential covariates of the spatial variation of employment-to-population ratio are also outlined.

The Federal Reserve sets targets for interest rates which it enforces through direct market intervention. These targets are changed periodically. In this paper, we develop a term structure model in which the short rate is subject to a control which keeps it close to a target which changes from time to time. The probability of target changes is not constant in the model, but changes as a function of observables. The model performs well at explaining the shifts in the yield curve that accompany target changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a summary of the papers presented at a round table conference on problems of the U.S. commercial policy. The Chairman remarked that two types of conflict had emerged in American commercial policy: the conflict between their foreign trade policy and certain of the objectives in New Deal domestic policy, and the conflict of their foreign policy with the foreign policies of the so-called "totalitarian" states. Professor Frank A. Southard, Jr.'s paper states that the trade policy of Germany has not been more successful than that of the United States. It has not succeeded in driving American exports out of foreign markets, nor has it prevented the United States from finding countries willing to support a non-discriminatory trade policy. Trade agreements have already been made with twenty countries, accounting for about 60 per cent of their foreign trade. E.D. Durand's paper dealt with "The European War and the Import Trade of the United States." The first World War resulted in a quantitative decrease in American imports, and sharp changes in the commodity composition of the trade. There was a marked decline (in terms of value) in the percentage of total imports furnished by Europe and a corresponding decline in the imports of the finished manufactured goods which are the typical products of that region. The shift from indirect to direct trade in such commodities as wool, tin and rubber was also responsible for the decline in imports from Europe.

This section introduces the articles which appeared in the March 1972 issue of the "Brookings Papers on Economic Activity." In the first article, William Branson estimates that the 1971 currency re-alignment, when fully effective, will bolster the United States merchandise trade balance by $7 billion to $8 billion a year. The effect of the devaluation of the U.S. dollar on the trade balance depends on how much it raises the dollar prices of U.S. imports, how much it lowers the prices of U.S. exports in terms of the currencies of buyers, and how responsive both buyers and sellers are to price changes -- that is, how large their price elasticities are. As Branson views the process, exporters set the price tags on tradeable goods in terms of their own currency. The paper by F. Thomas Juster and Paul Wachtel examines the effects of inflation and of transitory changes in income on consumer saving and spending behavior, with particular reference to the inflationary experience of recent years. The authors seek to explain consumer demand in several different ways, relying on both subjective data drawn from surveys of households and objective economic variables such as income, relative prices, and the rates of unemployment and of inflation. In the third article, Arthur Okun reaffirms analytically the desirability of an activist fiscal-monetary strategy. Like other Keynesian economists, Okun believes that fiscal and monetary policy should be shifted toward stimulus or restraint in light of observed and predicted economic fluctuations.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to seek to apply Polanyi's theory of the double movement as a response to the effects of economic liberalization and globalization to the pre-2007 American economy. In so doing, it seeks to ascertain the reasons why this assumed double movement did not materialize until after the post-2007 global economic crisis. Design/methodology/approach – This paper is structured as a theoretical and historical analysis, building upon Polanyi's nineteenth century observations and applying them to contemporary policy economic and social experience in the USA in the late twentieth century. The argument proposes a correlation between the missing and/or delayed movement and the role of access to debt and participation in equity markets. Findings – This paper argues that Polanyi's concept of a societal countermovement has been absent from the post-1970 period of economic liberalism and globalization until just recently due to an explicit attempt by the forces of capital to circumvent its role in lessening the harmful effects of American capitalism. In particular, the double movement that should have sought to lessen income inequality, unemployment and wage stagnation was instead replaced by access to cheap credit and the democratization of market investments that spurred consumer purchases and a false belief that what was good for the markets was good for working class Americans. Research limitations/implications – This paper highlights the need for ongoing research into the sociotropic nature of trade and of economic policy, and its evolution throughout the contemporary period of economic uncertainty and economic transition. Practical implications – The paper proposes several policy implications arising from the contemporary application of Polanyi's double movement, notably related to international trade and public and political support for ongoing trade liberalization. Social implications – This paper highlights important connections in the relationship between economic policy and the day-to-day lives of those who are governed by it. Building on "everyday political economy", it provides a foundation for arguments that a new balance must be found between economic globalization and transnational capital interests and domestic stability. Originality/value – This paper promotes a novel approach to understanding the political economy of pre-2007 America, in particular the reflexive nature of economic policy and societal perceptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Industry / Industrija is the property of Economics Institute and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article discusses the significance of the study conducted by researchers Gregory Mankiw and Matthew Weinzierl that examines the role of fiscal policy as a potential macroeconomic stabilization tool in the U.S. It cites the views of several authors regarding the advantage of the study, which enforces a connection between monetary and fiscal policy. It also mentions other authors who commend the paper due to its clear exposition in which its clarity allegedly made some idiosyncrasies of its model.

The article focuses on the important issues related to ethanol industry in the U.S. These issues includes the implications of alternative incentive schemes for renewable fuels production, impact on the country's agriculture of producing 10-60 gallons of ethanol in 2010-2030 respectively and a comparison between two organizational methods for production and energy crop harvesting. The five main objectives of the incentive scheme includes the consumer cost of fuel, food prices, safety net improvement for the renewable fuel industry , national security and emission control management. The primary purpose of the issues are to examine the significance of bioenergy technology for the improvement of the agriculture economics in the country.

Modern macroeconomic theories are customarily classified as either neoclassical or Keynesian. Neoclassical theories are those that assume that most markets are in equilibrium most of the time; in particular, they generally assume that the labor market is always in equilibrium. Keynesian theories are those that assume that many markets are in disequilibrium much of the time; in addition to the labor market, they generally assume that financial markets and markets for capital goods are often in disequilibrium, in this paper, we will be interested in the extent to which a theory assumes that markets are in equilibrium, rather than in the intellectual tradition of the theory, so we will classify theories as "equilibrium theories" or "disequilibrium theories." We will be interested in dynamic theories, which describe the development of prices, stocks, and flows of goods and services over time, rather than in static theories, which describe the impact of events such as a one-time change in tastes, technology, or government policy. One of the purposes of this paper is to develop an aggregate model of the development over time of an economy that includes money and that is in continual equilibrium in the sense described above. Such a model would help in the analysis of the properties of a competitive monetary economy, and would be a logical starting point for the analysis of such phenomena as unemployment and changes in the rate of inflation. Since most Keynesian models of the economy do not pretend to be equilibrium models, let us turn to the neoclassical models of economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The principle objective of our paper [5] was to present the theoretical concept of the Monetary Full Employment Interest Rate (MFEIR). We argued (and still believe) that this concept should be acceptable for use as an objective indicator of monetary policy by economists who believe that the Keynesian monetary mechanism is a valid description of reality. The presentation of estimates of the MFEIR was a secondary objective. As we stated, "[o]ur empirical results are presented more as an example of how this variable might be measured and used rather than as a definitive set of estimates of the monetary full employment interest rate during the 1952-1966 period." [5, p. 638]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In asking the question, "what can Europe do for itself?" in recovering and rebuilding after World War II, the article presents a conference paper that addresses information from the "General Report of the Committee of European Economic Cooperation." The author summarizes the European position into one: increase production. The author considers whether the goals outlined are attainable and what that will mean, discussing food, coal, electrical power, oil refinement, and steel production.

The standard labor force statistics has been widely used as an important indicator of the overall health of an economy, and both economists and economic policy makers in the U.S. have been uncritically relying on the single official unemployment rate whenever they propose and make an important policy decision. The goal of this paper is to revisit some of the limitations in the US formal labor force statistics and propose to incorporate a series of measures for analyzing a certain quality aspect of employment into the government's formal labor force statistics. The conventional definitions and categories used by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have many limitations, and are of no use at all in capturing quality aspects of employment. After examining some of these problems, the paper introduces and proposes the International Labor Office (ILO)'s labor (under-)utilization framework to overcome these problems. The labor utilization framework adopted in the ILO's international conferences emphasizes the importance of capturing quality aspects of labor utilization and introduces the concept of income-, time-, and skill-related labor underutilization. The survey in this paper shows that the ILO's labor utilization framework is broader in scope and much more consistent in analyzing the labor market performance. The framework also provides better insights into analyzing the labor market dynamics than any other formal labor force statistical frameworks, including the US BLS's standard labor force statistics. Even though the ILO's labor utilization framework is in no way a complete solution to the task of analyzing the capitalist labor market dynamics and of constantly improving the government's labor force statistics, it is far more superior to the conventional unemployment rate and any other narrowly defined labor force statistics. Thus, it is urged that the US BLS should seriously consider incorporating labor utilization framework into its formal labor force statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the differences in characteristics of federal and state chartered banks by using individual commercial bank's data sets from 1984 to 2006. The findings indicate significant differences between these two groups of banks in terms of their asset and liability management strategies. In line with these differences, credit channel of monetary policy is found to work differently for state and federal banks. Federal banks are found to be more responsive to monetary policy changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comments on the contents of the "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999," focusing primary on explanations of current notable macroeconomics phenomena. Arguments of Takeo Hoshi and Anil Kashyap on their view of the causes and implications of the Japanese banking crisis; Aims of John Heaton and Deborah Lucas on their claim that the stock-market boom in the U.S. can be explained by increases in stock -market participation; Discussion of Roberto Chang and Andrés Velasco on the properties of financial-market crises as well as the policy implications derived by considering a very specific interpretation of these crises.

This paper estimates the benefits and costs of state suppression policies to "bend the curve" during the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States. We employ an approach that values benefits and costs in terms of additions or subtractions to total production. Relative to a baseline in which only the infected and at-risk populations mitigate the spread of coronavirus, we estimate that total benefits of suppression policies to economic output are between $632.5 billion and $765.0 billion from early March 2020 to August 1, 2020. Relative to private mitigation, output lost due to suppression policies is estimated to be between $214.2 billion and $331.5 billion. The cost estimate is based on the duration of nonessential business closures and stay-at-home orders, which were enforced between 42 and 65 days. Our results indicate that the net benefits of suppression policies to slow the spread of COVID-19 are positive and may be substantial. We discuss uncertainty surrounding several parameters and employ alternative methods for valuing mortality benefits, which also suggest that suppression measures had positive net benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article comments on a paper that uses a unified analytical framework to assess the relevance of several proposed hypotheses which explain the real effects of exchange-rate-based stabilization in the U.S. Sergio Rebelo and Carlos A. Végh proposed a kind of horse race--they propose to study the quantitative implications of alternative hypotheses within a common framework. By doing so, they hope to be able to shed light in which theories perform well when confronted with data on a wide range of economic variables. For example, if a particular theory was designed to explain a post reform consumption boom and real exchange-rate appreciation, Rebelo and Végh will also examine the predictions of the theory for output, investment, the current account, and others. These predictions will then be compared with a set of stylized facts developed from examination of a group of recent stabilization attempts. In any investigation of this kind, there is an inevitable tension between keeping the model simple enough so that the key mechanisms remain transparent, and making the model look realistic, which of course involves additional complexity. Furthermore, the researchers acknowledged that many of the theories of the effects of stabilization policy incorporate expectations in a nontrivial way.

This article comments on the article The U.S. Response to Foreign Industrial Targeting, by Paul Krugman which was published in the January 1984 issue of the journal Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. The paper is an elegant essay in development economics and an exercise in the economics of the second-best. There are three lines of thought which could lead to a case for protection. The first one rests on dynamic scale economies, generated by learning effects. As Krugman recognizes, this is an elaboration of the old infant-industry argument known to Alexander Hamilton and to innumerable nineteenth-century German economists of the historical school. As it behooves the times, the argument is now presented in a sophisticated and algebraic fashion but its essence is similar to arguments used to defend official encouragement of import-substituting industrialization in Latin America. The second line of thought may be called the Manolescu thesis, in honor of the celebrated Romanian fascist economist. Everett Hagen refined this argument for protection, which rests on a wage distortion between urban and rural sectors in developing countries. A third line of argument, murkily foreshadowed in the writings of underground and peripheral economists, rests on the theory of strategic industrial policy.

This article examines the performance of a price-wage model in tracking the inflation in the U.S. in the 1970s. Most econometric models base their inflation forecasts on structural price and wage equations, either a single pair for the aggregate economy, or a larger set of disaggregated equations. The paper is divided into three sections, one on the price equation, one on the wage equation and one on dynamic simulations in which the two equations interact. Considerable experimentation with lag structures suggests that the effect of the commodity market on wages can be represented by a pair of proxies for excess demand: (1) the gap between actual and potential output and (2) the first difference in the gap. A dynamic simulation of the wage and price equations, which allows for the effects of wages on prices and prices on wages, provides an assessment of the inflationary implications of alternative paths of economic recovery and of the required duration of a stable prices at any cost policy that prevents recovery and maintains the output gap. Policy simulations with a two-equation wage-price model have both disadvantages and advantages as compared to simulations using the large-scale forecasting models.

This article discusses various research papers related to price regulation published in the March 2, 1936 issue of the journal "The American Economic Review." As we begin to get at the essence of any problem, we are likely to find that it loses the appearance of simplicity that it may have first possessed. We find complexities, involutions, differences that we never suspected, and that baffle us while they stimulate and fascinate us. This is the beginning of wisdom in economic research. Researcher Spurgeon Bell's paper brings home to us the institutional character of price rigidities. In mechanization, heavy overhead, and all that they entail are found some of the most compelling causes of price rigidity. The economic characteristics of an industrial economy, rather than original sin, seem to be primary factors of this problem. This is not to say that there is not some trace of original sin in the situation. Perhaps if we could take a representative set of corporation accounts and boil them down to their essence, the final precipitate might contain some trace of this sin.

The article comments on a study which suggests that endogenous policy responses do not necessarily impair the structural estimation of the working of the economy and economic policy. The paper implies that the decision period for policy is shorter than the observation period for the data. A multitude of problems arises if one really believes that the U.S. Federal Reserve or some other authority is making monthly decisions. If the proper model is a monthly one but a quarterly model is estimated, an important problem of aggregation through time arises, which should be treated explicitly. Critics of structural models argue that they are very likely to be misspecified, so that they produce the wrong coefficients and results more misleading and more troublesome than those emerging from the reduced-form approach. Solow suggested that monetary and fiscal policy makers might manage in some ways on some occasions to offset contemporaneous shifts from private demand even if they did not systematically behave according to any reaction function. Such unsystematic actions would be enough to make the policy variables correlated with the error terms in private demand equations.

This article responds to comments made in a paper which addressed the designing of monetary policy for controlling inflation in the U.S. Stephen Cecchetti responded to a criticism concerning the absence of more explicitly structural models from his paper. He argued that he intentionally avoided building a structural model because of the general lack of agreement about which model was the most appropriate. Further, he indicated that in this work, he was primarily interested in high-frequency events and the appropriate policy responses to those events, and not so much in the longer-term trends in inflation and economic activity about which structural models have the most to say. Another critic, Jim Stock, pointed out that the root-mean-square errors of regression forecasts of inflation appeared to be much larger than those of contemporaneous U.S. Federal Reserve forecasts. Carlos Végh felt that a more explicit theoretical framework was needed; in particular, there was some inconsistency between the standard theoretical analysis, which treats money as exogenous and interest rates as endogenous, and the empirical work, which treats the interest rate as exogenous policy instrument.

This paper presents new findings from the World Top Incomes Database and discusses some of their policy implications. In particular, the paper provides updated top income series for the United States-including new estimates through 2010, showing a strong rebound of the top 1 percent income share, following the 2008-09 sharp fall. It also presents updated income series for other developed countries (including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan) and new series on wealth-income ratios. In light of this extended set of country series, the paper analyzes the relative importance of market and institutional forces in explaining observed cross-country trends, and the likely impact of the Great recession on these long-term evolutions. It discusses the policy implications of the findings, both in terms of optimal tax policy and regarding the interplay between inequality and macroeconomic fragility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents the effects of changes in US monetary policy on asset prices in 51 countries to evaluate the validity of the event-study approach. We find that the event-study estimates contain a significant bias. However, this bias is fairly small and the ordinary least squares approach tends to outperform in an expected squared error sense the heteroscedasticity-based estimator for both small and large sample sizes. Hence in general the event-study methodology should be preferred. Moreover, we show that US monetary policy has been an important determinant of global financial markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a global input-output framework to quantify U.S. and European Union (EU) demand spillovers and the elasticity of world trade to GDP during the global recession of 2008-09. Cross-border intermediate goods linkages have implications for the transmission of shocks and the relationship between demand, trade, and production across countries. This paper finds that 20-30 percent of the decline in U.S. and EU final demand was borne by foreign countries, with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and emerging Europe hit hardest. Allowing final demand to change in all countries simultaneously, the framework presented here delivers an elasticity of world trade to GDP of 2.8. Thus, demand forces alone can account for roughly 70 percent of the trade collapse. Large changes in demand for durables play an important role in driving these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using historical, theoretical and empirical arguments, this paper puts forth the notion that it was the rise of US national TV networks in the late 1960s that led to the expansion of federal social regulation and a simultaneous decline of federal economic regulation in the 1970s. The paper argues that national TV networks changed the relative position of national versus local and regional producers and sellers of goods and services. Instead of preferring state and local social regulation, the emerging national firms preferred federal social regulation. Since national markets were emerging, the same national firms lobbied for regulatory reform in transportation and communication services. The rise of national markets associated with national TV networks also stimulated a demand for mergers and consolidations. Data describing these various phenomena are provided in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global financial downturn of 2001 affected broad swaths of the increasingly interconnected global economy. The global effects of the economic downturn in the U.S. in 2008 showed that decoupling had not occurred to the extent many thought, and showed that indeed emerging market countries, including Turkey, were not immune from economic trouble in America. This paper addresses the question, whether the fiscal, financial, and regulatory reforms in Turkey after the 2001 economic crisis cushion the global financial crisis world is facing toward the end of the decade. In doing so we analyze the policies implemented by Turkey before and after the 2001 global economic crisis and identify the successes as well as failures of those reforms. The results of our research show that despite significant reforms in key economic and regulatory areas in the post-2001 crisis period, vulnerabilities remained; especially concerning the large current account deficit, volatility of exchange rates, increased private sector indebtedness, and persistent unemployment. These vulnerabilities will be visible in the deteriorating liquidity conditions in the global financial markets. We conclude by recommending infrastructure, education and health spending as well as restructuring of the economy to further attract FDI and avoid reliance on speculative foreign capital in order to achieve a more balanced and sustained growth in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a generalization of the formulas proposed by Kuttner (2001) and others for purposes of measuring the effects of a change in the federal funds target on Treasury yields of different maturities. The generalization avoids the need to condition on the date of the target change and allows for deviations of the effective fed funds rate from the target as well as gradual learning by market participants about the target. The paper shows that parameters estimated solely on the basis of the behavior of the fed funds and fed funds futures can account for the broad calendar regularities in the relation between fed funds futures and Treasury yields of different maturities. Although the methods are new, the conclusion is quite similar to that reported by earlier researchers—changes in the fed funds target seem to be associated with quite large changes in Treasury yields, even for maturities of up to 10 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the economic models for monetary policymaking in the U.S. It has been suggested that monetary policy in most countries and periods is best modeled as an interest rate. In probability models, models are presented with coefficients estimated from data and with standard errors of the estimates. The Federal Reserve Board's FRBUS model applies a standard single-equation specification to many variables that assumes no within quarter interactions among variables. The Bayesian approach to interference recognizes the need for what has to go on daily in data analysis for policymaking.

This paper analyzes the developmental trade-offs involved in multilateral versus regional-bilateral strategies of integration into the international economy. I contrast the regulations that guide policy in the areas of trade, investment, and intellectual property in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and in regional-bilateral agreements between the US and developing countries. Both strategies of integration feature similar trade-offs, in that developing countries gain increased market access and opportunities for specialization in exchange for diminished space for use of industrial policy instruments to create new productive capacities. However, the trade-offs are intensified in the case of regional-bilateral agreements: countries receive more market access, but in exchange make significantly deeper concessions regarding the management of inward investment and intellectual policy. I argue that countries whose integration into the international economy is guided by their obligations as members of the WTO still have opportunities to implement industrial strategies that are designed to alter comparative advantages and achieve upward mobility in the international economic order, but the obligations under the regional-bilateral strategy greatly circumscribe these options. The paper thus points to the need for new terms of reference in the debate over ‘policy space’ in the international political economy. In analyzing contemporary development strategies, the most useful contrast is not between the alternatives that countries have under the WTO and the alternatives that countries had in the past under the WTO's predecessors, but between a constraining multilateral environment and even more constraining regional and bilateral environments that condition increased market access on the sacrifice of the very tools that countries have historically used to capture the developmental benefits of integration into the international economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A central statement of the theory of natural trading partners is that preferential trading with regional trading partners is less likely to be trade diverting and therefore geographically proximate partners are to be considered “natural” partners for preferential arrangements. This paper examines this question empirically. The analytical framework involves a general equilibrium model of preferential trade and an econometric model with tight links to this theory. This framework is used to implement tests of the natural trading partners hypothesis using U.S. trade data for the years 1964–95: Welfare changes that would result from preferential tariff reductions by the United States against various trading partners are first estimated, and correlations with bilateral “distance” measures (with and without controls for income levels) are then examined. Since the argument for “natural” trading partners is based on the greater likelihood of geographically proximate countries to be more significant trading partners, correlations between the welfare change estimates and bilateral trade volume are examined as well. Both geographic proximity and trade volume are found to have no effect. Thus this paper is unable to find any support for the natural trading partners theory in U.S. data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several recent papers agree on the existence of significant regime shifts in the U.S. real interest rate, but disagree on the proximate causes of the shifts. Caporale and Grier (2000) point to large political changes as correlates, while Rapach and Wohar (2004) show that real rate breaks are correlated with inflation regime shifts and argue that the inflation regime changes cause the real rate shifts. In this paper we show that, controlling for the timing of changes in the inflation regime, dummy variables representing either party change in the Presidency or change in the identity of the Fed Chair are still strongly significant for explaining real interest rate fluctuations. When we control for a fixed coefficient linear relationship between inflation and the real rate, we find two real rate regime shifts that line up almost exactly with the accessions of Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan. Even if we first let inflation regime switches explain the real rate and then look for regime shifts in the residuals, we find almost exactly the same two breaks. These results imply that Fed Chairs sometimes differ with respect to their preferred equilibrium real interest rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a comment on the article "America's Historical Experience with Low Inflation." The author discusses the arguments set forth in the paper and addresses several areas that he found intriguing. The author examines how low, low inflation actually is, what the true costs of inflation are, how the Fisher Effect comes into play during periods of low inflation and the risks associated with deflationary slumps. The author agrees with the major tenets of the paper and believes that the paper has addressed the primary issues that will play a role in determining if the U.S. will continue to experience low inflation.