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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the financial turmoil of the US subprime loan crisis of mid-Noughties and to compare it with the Japanese asset bubble of late 1980s. While examining the two crises, it compares the monetary policies of both countries, focusing on the excess liquidity and expansion of bank loans that were seen. This paper develops several bubble indicators, including the ratio of real estate loans to total loans, the loan-to-GDP ratio, and housing affordability. In order to develop these indicators, it is necessary to compare banking behavior in both Japan and the United States, as banks in both countries were making loans beyond the point of profit maximization. Property prices and monetary policy in both countries influenced banking behavior significantly. The bubble indicators developed in this paper can be used as early warning indicators for future bubbles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper builds a two-country model with differential productivity and financial frictions to quantitatively account for the recent increase in the U.S. current account deficit. An influential literature says that as U.S. productivity surged, capital was attracted to the United States to take advantage of the high returns to investment. We show, however, that when we include emerging Asia, the gap in productivity growth between the United States and the rest of the world cannot explain the U.S. current account deficits, especially since 2000. This is because on a gross domestic product-weighted basis, the rest of the world actually had higher productivity growth during this period; and standard macroeconomic models would predict an outflow of funds from the United States to the rest of the world, and a consequent narrowing of the U.S. current account deficit. This paper shows that greater financial integration abroad can explain this anomaly. However, we still cannot explain why U.S. per capita output growth has been so low, despite the large inflow of capital.IMF Staff Papers (2009) 56, 655–682. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2009.4; published online 31 March 2009 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The composition of economic growth can be analyzed in two different ways. In the ‘traditional method’ for the decomposition of GDP growth, total imports are deducted from exports. This approach underestimates the importance of exports for the growth in GDP, and overestimates the importance of domestic expenditure categories. In the alternative methodology proposed in this paper, imports are allocated to all expenditure categories. Although this ‘import-adjusted method’ is more complex than the ‘traditional method’, it has the considerable advantage that the contributions of the expenditure categories to GDP growth provide a better understanding of why GDP growth decelerates or accelerates. The methodology and data requirements for calculating the import content of final demand, and the implications for the decomposition of real GDP growth, are discussed. For six European countries and the United States, the paper shows that applying the alternative methodology provides rather a different economic story. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper estimates an index of coincident economic indicators for the US economy by using time series with different frequencies of observation (monthly and quarterly, possibly with missing values). The model that is considered is the dynamic factor model that was proposed by Stock and Watson, specified in the logarithms of the original variables and at the monthly frequency, which poses a problem of temporal aggregation with a non-linear observational constraint when quarterly time series are included. Our main methodological contribution is to provide an exact solution to this problem that hinges on conditional mode estimation by iteration of the extended Kalman filtering and smoothing equations. On the empirical side the contribution of the paper is to provide monthly estimates of quarterly indicators, among which is the gross domestic product, that are consistent with the quarterly totals. Two applications are considered: the first dealing with the construction of a coincident index for the US economy, whereas the second does the same with reference to the euro area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the short-run restrictions implied by a simple aggregate demand-aggregate supply model as an aid in identifying structural shocks. Combined with the Blanchard–Quah restriction, it allows estimation of the slope of the aggregate supply curve, the variances of structural demand and supply shocks, and the extent to which structural demand and supply shocks are correlated. This paper finds that demand and supply shocks are highly correlated and that demand shocks possibly can account for as much as 82% of the long-run forecast error variance of real U.S. GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This section presents a reply by Christian J. Murray and Charles R. Nelson (MN) to the paper by David H. Papell and Ruxandra Prodan (PP) about uncertain root in U.S. real GDP in relation to their paper "The Great Depression and Output Persistence." The author states that there were no permanent shocks to the gross domestic product (GDP) from 1870 to 1998. The authors of this reply discuss PP's rejection of the unit root, the economic implications of the trend stationary hypothesis. The authors also consider the implications of having adopted the trend-stationary view on the basis of the 1870-1994 series.

This paper uses an autocorrelation function (ACF) approach to develop a new testing procedure for international output convergence. We define convergence in terms of sample ACFs of detrended output per capita, and construct an inference set-up based on resampling and subsampling techniques for dependent data. Using per capita GDP for 15 OECD countries observed over a century, we find that the hypothesis of conditional convergence is unsupported; that, the USA apart, the linearized neoclassical growth model fails to replicate the transitional dynamics of OECD economies; and that these economies do not behave like a club. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents evidence of a non-linear relationship between real GDP growth and oil price changes for the US economy. We also argue that this non-linearity is not merely due to the use of data from the mid-1980s onwards, as most authors, so far, seem to believe. In fact, we find the existence of non-linearity with the use of data earlier than 1984, and even before 1977. Furthermore, we question that the non-linear transformations of oil prices proposed in the literature are the most appropriate ones for reflecting such non-linearity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article develops a growth-based regionalisation of the United States using both principal components and cluster analyses to endogenously sort states into regional transition clubs with somewhat uniform annual rates of per capita real GSP growth in the period 1977–2004. I correlate the principal components with annual growth in per capita real GDP and assess spatial dependencies in the identified transition clubs. Growth variability in the transition clubs is compared with growth variability in BEA and Census regions. Results show a large Coastal transition club that contains most of the New England, Middle Atlantic, and South Atlantic census regions. California, Minnesota, and Arizona belong to this grouping. A second growth transition club titled Eastern Interior groups most of the states in the East North Central and the East South Central census regions. A Western Interior region groups states in the southern Great Plains. Coefficients of variation show that these three large interstate groupings grow more uniformly compared with associated census and BEA regions. Growth in western states is idiosyncratic. Most western states group with one or two related states, California and Arizona associate with the Coastal club, Nevada does not pigeonhole well with other states, and Alaska's annual growth trajectory is unique. Este artículo desarrolla una regionalización de los Estados Unidos basada en crecimiento usando componentes principales y análisis de cluster para agrupar los estados en grupos de transición regional según tasas anuales de crecimiento más o menos uniformes en el producto estatal bruto (GSP) real per capita en el periodo 1977–2004. Correlaciono los componentes principales con el crecimiento anual en el producto interior bruto (GDP) real per capita y evalúo dependencias espaciales en los grupos de transición identificados. La variabilidad de crecimiento en los grupos de transición se compara con la variabilidad de crecimiento en regiones BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) y Censuales. Los resultados muestran un grupo de transición grande en la Costa que contiene la mayoría de regiones censuales de New England, Atlántico Medio, y Atlántico Sur. California, Minnesota, y Arizona pertenecen a este grupo. Un Segundo grupo de transición de crecimiento llamado Interior Este aglutina la mayoría de estados de las regiones censuales Central Norte Oriental y Central Sur Oriental. Una región Interior Occidental agrupa los estados de las Grandes Llanuras del Sur. Los coeficientes de variación muestran que estos tres grandes grupos interestatales crecen más uniformemente en comparación con las regiones censuales y BEA asociadas. El crecimiento en los estados occidentales es idiosincrásico. La mayoría de los estados occidentales se agrupan con uno o dos estados relacionados, California y Arizona se asocian con el grupo de la Costa, Nevada no se clasifica bien con ningún otro estado, y la trayectoria de crecimiento anual de Alaska es única. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper outlines a class of statistical procedures that permit testing of a broad range of multidimensional stochastic dominance hypotheses and, more generally, welfare hypotheses that rely upon multiple stochastic dominance conditions. We apply the procedures to data on income and leisure hours for individuals in Germany, the UK, and the USA. We find that no country first-order stochastically dominates the others in both dimensions for all years of comparison. Furthermore, while in general the USA stochastically dominates Germany and the UK with respect to income, in most periods Germany stochastically dominates with respect to leisure hours. Finally, we find evidence that bivariate poverty (which refers, for example, to the working poor, that is, those who have little leisure and low income) is lower in Germany than in either the UK or the USA. On the other hand, poverty comparisons between the UK and the USA are sensitive to the subpopulation of individuals considered. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the conventional view of the business cycle, fluctuations in output represent temporary deviations from trend. The purpose of this paper is to question this conventional view. If fluctuations in output are dominated by temporary deviations from the natural rate of output, then an unexpected change in output today should not substantially change one's forecast of output in, say, five or ten years. Our examination of quarterly postwar United States data leads us to be skeptical about this implication. The data suggest that an unexpected change in real GNP of 1 percent should change one's forecast by over 1 percent over a long horizon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Yes. This paper shows that, since the late 1980s, U.S. financial markets and private sector forecasters have become (1) better able to forecast the federal funds rate at horizons out to several months, (2) less surprised by Federal Reserve announcements, (3) more certain of their interest rate forecasts ex ante, as measured by interest rate options, and (4) less diverse in the cross-sectional variety of their interest rate forecasts. We also present evidence that strongly suggests increases in Federal Reserve transparency played a role: for example, private sector forecasts of GDP and inflationhave not experienced similar improvements over the same period, indicating that the improvement in interest rate forecasts has been special. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides direct evidence on the forecasting performance of the Divisia monetary aggregates relative to the traditional simple sum monetary aggregates. It is shown that forecasts of U.S. real GDP from a four variable vector autoregression are most accurate when a Divisia aggregate is included rather than a simple sum aggregate, particularly at broad levels of aggregation. Further, the two M1 aggregates, relative to the broader aggregates, are superior predictors of the GDP deflator, with a slight edge going to Divisia M1 over simple sum M1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to identify the different sources of persistence of output fluctuations. We propose an unobserved components model that allows us to decompose GDP series into a trend component and a cyclical component. We let the drift of the trend component switch between different regimes according to a first-order Markov process. To calculate an appropriate p-value for a test of linearity we propose a bootstrap procedure, which allows for general forms of heteroscedasticity. The performance of the bootstrap is checked by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. Our study concerns the USA. We find that cyclical shocks appear to play an important role on the observed persistence of output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the effects of a rise in defense spending on key macroeconomic variables since September 11, 2001. For examining the effects of the rise in defense spending, empirical models were developed for GDP, employment, trade deficit, and budget deficit. In addition to estimation results, simulations were made to assess the effect of defense spending employing the empirical models. Findings reveal that the rise in defense spending had a favorable impact on GDP and employment but led to larger trade and budget deficits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reconciles two widely used decompositions of GDP into trend and cycle that yield starkly different results. The Beveridge-Nelson (BN) decomposition implies that a stochastic trend accounts for most of the variation in output, whereas the unobserved-components (UC) implies cyclical variation is dominant. Which is correct has broad implications for the relative importance of real versus nominal shocks. We show the difference arises from the restriction imposed in UC that trend and cycle innovations are uncorrelated. When this restriction is relaxed, the UC decomposition is identical to the BN decomposition. Furthermore, the zero-correlation restriction can be rejected for U.S. quarterly GDP, with the estimated correlation being-0.9. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) was designed to reveal the economic, social, and environmental trade-offs associated with conventional economic growth as traditionally measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Although originally designed for use at the national scale, an interest has developed in the United States in a state-level uptake of the GPI to inform and guide policy. This study presents the first fifty-state estimate for U.S. GPI in order to address questions over its design, implementation, and ultimate potential as a tool to guide state-level economic policy. Following a review of the current state of analysis and critique of GPI, we provide an overview of methodology and database development. Results are then presented, including discussion of lessons learned through a fifty-state application. The paper concludes with suggestions for further research and next steps to consolidating a consistent methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore the effect of the sharp and sustained decline after June 2014 in the global price of crude oil (and hence in the U.S. price of gasoline) on U.S. real GDP growth. Our analysis suggests that this decline produced a cumulative stimulus of about 0.9 percent of real GDP by raising private real consumption and non-oil-related business investment, and an additional stimulus of 0.04 percent, reflecting a shrinking petroleum trade deficit. This stimulative effect, however, has been largely offset by a large reduction in real investment by the oil sector. Hence, the net stimulus since June 2014 has been close to zero. We show that the U.S. economy's response was not fundamentally different from that observed after the oil price decline of 1986. Then as now, the U.S. economy's response is consistent with standard economic models of the transmission of oil price shocks. We find no evidence that frictions in reallocating capital and labor across sectors or increased uncertainty about the price of gasoline explain the sluggish response of U.S. real GDP growth. Nor do we find evidence of financial contagion, of spillovers from oil-related investment to non-oil-related investment, of an increase in household savings, or of households deleveraging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides a broad overview of the measurement techniques used in estimating GDP and the national accounts in the United States. In the United States, the GDP and the national accounts estimates are fundamentally based on detailed economic census data and other information that is available only once every five years. The challenge lies in developing a framework and methods that take these economic census data and combine them using a mosaic of monthly, quarterly, and annual economic indicators to produce quarterly and annual GDP estimates. One problem is that the other economic indicators that are used to extrapolate GDP in between the five-year economic census data—such as retail sales, housing starts, and manufacturers shipments of capital goods— are often collected for purposes other than estimating GDP and may embody definitions that differ from those used in the national accounts. Another problem is some data are simply not available for the earlier estimates in the reporting process. For the initial monthly estimates of GDP, data on about 25 percent of GDP—especially in the service sector—are not available, and so these sectors of the economy are estimated based on past trends and whatever related data are available. The initial monthly GDP estimates based on these extrapolations are revised as more complete data become available In producing the national accounts estimates, the Bureau of Economic Analysis attempts to strike a balance between accuracy and timeliness so that the estimates can be used to monitor real overall economic growth and inflation, as well as major sectors of interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the consistency or conflict in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) agricultural trade and aid policies in the U.S. Study shows that the negative effects of agricultural aid on growth in measured agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) per worker outbalance the positive effects. It was found out that the estimated aid coefficients are negative and statistically significant. This negative aid effect could be attributed to induced reductions in local market prices of commodities whose production increases as a consequence of aid. On the other hand, the strong positive effect of the degree of overlap between a developing country's crop planting patterns.

This study presents an analysis of the relationship between per capita CO2 emissions as an environmental degradation indicator and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) as an economic growth indicator within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). For this purpose, non-linear panel models are estimated for the Annex I countries, non-Annex countries, and whole parties with respect to data availability of the United States Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the period 1960–2012. The empirical results of the panel smooth transition models (PSTR) show that the environmental deterioration rises in the first phase of growth for all data sets. Afterwards, the environmental degradation cannot be prevented, but the increase in the amount of environmental degradation decreases. The findings of this study give an insight regarding the differential environmental impact of economic growth between developed and developing countries. While the validity of a traditional EKC relation regarding the CO2 emissions cannot be affirmed for any group of countries in our sample, empirical results indicate the existence of multiple regimes where economic growth hampers environmental quality, but its severity decreases at each consecutive regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Culture is a somewhat nebulous term, particularly in the context of accounting scholarship. Historically, it has been offered as a factor to explain many economic phenomena, including tax evasion. Utilizing Hofstede's (1980, 2001) cultural dimensions and data from the World Bank from 2005-2010, this study takes an exploratory approach to develop a stepwise, forward selection regression model to better illuminate this phenomenon vis-à-vis culture and economic structure. The results suggest, at least within the context of tax evasion, that cultural indices may be redundant in the presence of other readily available socio-economic indicators. This brings the age-old debate of culture versus structure to the forefront of accounting scholarship and policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article analysis research paper about the effects of estimated macroeconomics to the federal reserve's large-scale treasury program. It states that the authors apply a set of model to attempt setting apart the effects that the program may have on interest rates, employment rates, and real spending gross domestic product (GDP). Moreover, it notes that the Boston model suggests that it will require two years for the lagged impact to be fully actualized in the U.S. economy.

The article presents information on the income levels of the U.S. and Canada from 1961-2008. It states the comparison between the per capita income of the U.S. and Canada. It highlights the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI) for both the countries. It discusses the purchasing power parity (PPP), which is one of the tools used to measure GDP. It presents the statistics of GDP and GDI of the U.S. and Canada since 1961. It also discusses the exchange rates.

The article presents an outlook on the economic conditions of countries around the world. The default in Greece has been cited as the reason for the expected decline in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the eurozone in 2012. It discusses the economic indicators of the U.S., including unemployment rate and Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index. It offers forecasts on GDP and industrial output of Japan, as well as the eurozone countries.

The GDP concept has historically been used to measure human wellbeing and progress. This analytical purview is now coming into question. The GDP concept limits analysis to the economic factor and ignores the social and cultural. Analysis should focus on how well the people are doing. An avalanche of studies is now being directed toward dethroning the GDP as the sole indicator of human well-being and progress. This has been manifest in the derivation of many social indexes which indicate that while the global economy as well as the American economy are experiencing GDP growth, basic needs are not being fulfilled. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Additive coefficient model (Xue and Yang, 2006a, 2006b) is a flexible regression and autoregression tool that circumvents the "curse of dimensionality." We propose spline-backfitted kernel (SBK) and spline-backfitted local linear (SBLL) estimators for the component functions in the additive coefficient model that are both (i) computationally expedient so they are usable for analyzing high dimensional data, and (ii) theoretically reliable so inference can be made on the component functions with confidence. In addition, they are (iii) intuitively appealing and easy to use for practitioners. The SBLL procedure is applied to a varying coefficient extension of the Cobb-Douglas model for the U.S. GDP that allows nonneutral effects of the R&D on capital and labor as well as in total factor productivity (TFP). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the alternative measures of gross domestic product (GDP) and how they affect GDP's interpretation in the U.S. It emphasizes a measure that is different from other published series and capable of addressing economic issues by estimating investment in research and development (R&D), similar intangible items and fraction of wages paid to women. It shows the significance of GDP's correlation with unemployment and inflation in making it a good measure of the country's economy.

Potential output is an estimate of the level of gross domestic product attainable when the economy is operating at a high rate of resource use. A summary measure of the economy's productive capacity, potential output plays an important role in the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)'s economic forecast and projection. The author briefly describes the method the CBO uses to estimate and project potential output, outlines some of the advantages and disadvantages of that approach, and describes some of the challenges associated with estimating and projecting potential output. Chief among these is the difficulty of estimating the underlying trends in economic data series that are volatile, subject to structural change, and frequently revised. Those challenges are illustrated using examples based on recent experience with labor force growth, the Phillips curve, and labor productivity growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a total economic outlook for the years 2006-2016 in the U.S. Gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the sales of domestically produced goods and services to final users, is expected to grow at an annual average rate of 2.8%. Over the same period, consumer spending is projected to maintain its 2006 share of about 70%. In addition, a deficit foreign trade position is also predicted to persist, as well as growth of exports in real terms. The forecast also expects the unemployment rate to be at 5% in 2016.

The analysis explains how previous oil shocks have affected real U.S. income. Real income differs from aggregate economic output (GDP) because it includes the purchasing power losses associated with more expensive imported petroleum. Real income declines immediately during the same quarter as the oil price shock as opposed to the output effects, which are lagged over several quarters. These immediate losses can be significant, reaching as much as 1.7% of the baseline value in the same quarter, for a doubling of crude oil prices. Expanding coverage to include purchasing power losses allows policy analysts to evaluate a range of different policy instruments that can influence oil prices, such as the building and release of the strategic petroleum reserve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While homeland security is widely seen as an important national objective, the costs of this effort are not well understood. An analysis of public and private expenditures on homeland security shows that overall spending rose by $44 billion between 2001 and 2005--a clear increase but one that represents a gain of only ¼ of 1 percent as a share of U.S. GDP. Private sector expenditures increased very modestly in dollar terms and remained unchanged as a fraction of the sector's GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effectively predicting cyclical movements in the economy is a major challenge. The U.S. leading index (LI) has long been used to analyze and predict economic fluctuations. We describe and test a new procedure for making the LI more timely. The new LI significantly outperforms its older counterpart. It offers substantial gains in real-time, out-of-sample forecasts of changes in aggregate economic activity (real GDP, the index of coincident indicators, and industrial production) and provides timely and accurate ex ante information for predicting not only business cycle turning points, but also monthly changes in the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article finds evidence that ideas and innovation are a key force explaining postwar growth in the U.S. economy. Utilizing data on patents issued since 1851, I construct a measure of the growth rate of knowledge. Capital stock estimates, human capital estimates, and real gross domestic product per worker growth rates are combined with the knowledge growth series to construct a time series test of endogenous innovation growth models. The results support the endogenous innovation approach but suggest that the accumulation of the per worker capital stock and changes in average human capital per worker are at least as important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tax haven countries offer foreign investors low tax rates and other tax features designed to attract investment and thereby stimulate economic activity. Major tax havens have less than 1 percent of the world's population (outside the United States) and 2.3 percent of world gross domestic product (GDP), but they host 5.7 percent of the foreign employment and 8.4 percent of foreign property, plant, and equipment of American firms. Per capita real GDP in tax haven countries grew at an average annual rate of 3.3 percent between 1982 and 1999, which compares favorably to the world average of 1.4 percent. Tax haven governments appear to be adequately funded: their average 25 percent ratio of government to GDP exceeds the 20 percent ratio for the world as a whole, though the small populations and relative affluence of these countries would normally be associated with even larger governments. Whether the economic prosperity of tax haven countries comes at the expense of higher tax countries is unclear. Recent research suggests that tax haven activity stimulates investment in nearby high-tax countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses arguments on the role of increased oil prices in recessions, period of excessive inflation, reduced productivity and lower economic growth. There is a widespread belief that exogenous political events in the Middle East cause recessions in industrialized countries through their effect on the price of oil. This belief is fueled by the close statistical relationship between political events in the Middle East and recessions in the U.S. Even if we do not necessarily accept the view that exogenous political events in the Middle East cause recessions in the United States, it is undoubtedly true that many recessions since 1972 have been associated with major oil price increases, although again the association is less than perfect. Another way of undermining the benchmark result is to allow for capital-energy complementarities in production. In the presence of capital-energy complementarities, one would expect an oil price increase to lower real GDP by lowering the demand for capital services. Another potential channel of transmission is the transfer of wealth involved in paying higher oil import bills. The total wealth transfer from the industrialized countries to the oil-producing countries, however, will tend to be small, given the small expenditure on foreign oil relative to GDP.

Focuses on Tech-Pulse Index as an indicator to assess the activity in the U. S. technology sector. Conference Board indicators used in the index; Growth in real gross domestic product in the U. S. economy; Technological innovations that boost the technology sector.

Details the projections of the United States economy by 2010. Gross domestic product expected from 2001 to 2010; Examination on the key economic indicators of the country; Statistics on the country's economic performance from 1990 to 2000.

Presents information on ways in which to obtain national income and product accounts (NIPA). Availability from the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); Status of NIPAs as important economic indicators; Information included in NIPAs which includes gross domestic product (GDP); Origins of the information included in NIPAs; Methodology of BEA in compiling information from various sources such as the US Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

Nighttime lights (NTL) are a popular type of data for evaluating economic performance of regions and economic impacts of various shocks and interventions. Several validation studies use traditional statistics on economic activity like national or regional gross domestic product (GDP) as a benchmark to evaluate the usefulness of NTL data. Many of these studies rely on dated and imprecise Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) data and use aggregated units such as nation-states or the first sub-national level. However, applied researchers who draw support from validation studies to justify their use of NTL data as a proxy for economic activity increasingly focus on smaller and lower level spatial units. This study uses a 2001–19 time-series of GDP for over 3100 U.S. counties as a benchmark to examine the performance of the recently released version 2 VIIRS nighttime lights (V.2 VNL) products as proxies for local economic activity. Contrasts were made between cross-sectional predictions for GDP differences between areas and time-series predictions of GDP changes within areas. Disaggregated GDP data for various industries were used to examine the types of economic activity best proxied by NTL data. Comparisons were also made with the predictive performance of earlier NTL data products and at different levels of spatial aggregation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the extensive work by Burns and Mitchell, many economists have interpreted economic fluctuations in terms of business-cycle phases. Given this, we argue that, in addition to usual model-selection criteria currently used in the profession, the adequacy of n univariate macroeconomic time series model should be based on its ability lo replicate two important business-cycle features of the U.S. data—duration and amplitude. We propose several checks for whether univariate statistical models generate business-cycle features observed in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and find that many popular nonlinear models for the log of real GDP are no better at replicating the duration and amplitude features of the data than a simple ARlMA(1, 1, 0). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a discussion about how to distribute the cash and financial assets to generate higher growth in companies at the United States. The author mentioned that the corporate profitability currently exceeds business investments for the first time since 1969 and the level of profits as gross domestic product percentage was at the highest level in more than 50 years. He also discussed the sustainable growth rate that was valuable in a company because it combines operating and financial elements into one comprehensive measure. Several charts about business and corporate profits are also presented.

We provide new insights into the relationship between financial market tightness and real activity, using a new database of corporate bonds issued in eight European countries. Bond spreads have a significant negative relationship with four real activity variables at horizons 1-8 quarters ahead. The relationship is robust to adding measures of monetary policy tightness and leading indicators, providing strong support for models previously only evaluated on US data. A subset of northern European countries have similar sensitivity of real GDP to bond spreads, but others have greater sensitivity to bond spreads, revealing diverse responses in Europe to financial market tightness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article compares data related to gross domestic product (GDP) and employment to ascertain the relationship between output and employment during economic downturns. It informs that there have been two complete cycles since 1976 when both GDP and jobs contracted in absolute terms. During both recessions and slowdowns, employment growth closely tracked GDP growth. It is noted that employment fell in the U.S. in December 2007, six months before GDP began to contract in the second half of 2008.