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A stochastic framework for coordination of macroeconomic policies is introduced in this paper. It is suggested that: (i) measures of policy accountability should allow for the climate of uncertainty that surrounds policy decisions, and (ii) most models of aggregate economic activity impose arbitrary specifications of uncertainty that do not appear to be empirically justifiable. Ambiguities in interpreting the Humphrey-Hawkins reports of policy authorities are sketched in section II; a proposal for maximizing the ex ante prospects of policy objectives is illustrated in section III; finally, nonstationary allocations of uncertainty are discussed in sections IV and V. This paper provides a brief survey of ongoing work by members of the Federal Reserve Board staff on the role of uncertainty in policy forecasts. It suggests that policy discussion could be improved by more explicit consideration of the allocation of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article comments on three papers within the issue: "Long-Term Effects of Government Deficits on the U.S. Output Potential," by George von Furstenburg, "Capital Formation and the Recent Productivity Slowdown," by Peter Clark, and "U.S. Productivity Growth Recession: History and Prospects for the Future," by Michael McCarthy. The author discusses each article and criticizes their shortcomings. He looks at von Furstenburg's use of the Phelps-Shell model of dynamic economic growth and notes the usefulness of neoclassical growth theory. The author feels that his discussion on the effects of government deficits on output growth or productivity represent a fruitful economic analysis innovation.

This article presents a comment on the paper "America's Historical Experience with Low Inflation." The author notes that while he agrees with much of the argument in the paper; however, he does not find it persuasive. He sets forth several instances that would cause the U.S. to be presented with rising inflation other than becoming involved in a war. One situation would be if the unemployment rate were to rise. The author suggests that the U.S. cannot become complacent and assume that a low-inflation environment will continue to thrive.

ABSTRACT: In this paper, we examine the convergence hypothesis using a long memory framework that allows for structural breaks and does not rely on a benchmark country using both univariate and multivariate estimates of the long memory parameter d. Using per capita GDP gaps, we confirm the findings of non‐stationarity and long memory behavior that have been found previously in the literature using univariate tests. However, the support for these findings is much weaker when using a multivariate framework, in which case we find more evidence of stationary behavior. Based on these results, we also investigate club formation, something that would suggest the presence of conditional convergence. We describe a club formation methodology using the sequential testing criteria that we have employed in our analysis as the basis for forming clusters or clubs of countries with similar convergence characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper offers three results. First, in line with the previous literature, we confirm that fiscal adjustments based mostly on the spending side are less likely to be reversed. Second, spending-based fiscal adjustments have caused smaller recessions than tax-based fiscal adjustments. Finally, certain combinations of policies have made it possible for spending-based fiscal adjustments to be associated with growth in the economy even on impact rather than with a recession. Thus, expansionary fiscal adjustments are possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper sets out theory and measurement of how intangible investment might capture innovation and what data on intangibles look like for the EU, Japan, and the US. We also look at complementarities between information and communications technology (ICT) and intangibles, spillovers from intangibles to growth, and policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the controversial issue of regional development incentives. Although extensive research has been conducted, a review of the literature gives an inconclusive answer to whether economic incentives are effective. Why do researchers arrive at different conclusions, even after analysing the same programmes? Among the problems that we find, for example, is the fact that for some researchers ‘effective’ means the significant location of new firms in targeted areas, while for others the creation of jobs regardless of whether new firms are arriving in a significant fashion. Furthermore, as we elaborate, the selection of an econometric model will have a significant impact on expected results. Different models, with different limitations, will lead researchers to evaluate the same incentive programme but arrive at different conclusions regarding its effectiveness. The contribution of the paper is to inform policymakers about the potential opportunities and pitfalls when designing incentive strategies. This is particularly relevant, given that both the US and Europe have been promoting incentives as a tool for regional economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to his Nobel Prize-winning work in economic development and human capital, T.W. Schultz focused his attention most centrally on the economics of U.S. agriculture. His research on this subject, published mostly between 1932 and 1951, laid the foundation for his later work. However, the lasting value of Schultz's earlier work may appear to have been called into question even by the author himself. In the three books of collected writings he published toward the end of his life (Schultz, 1990, 1993a, 1993b), very few early writings are reprinted or even cited. Nonetheless, among agricultural economists, Schultz's earlier work has been as influential as his later work became among economists generally. In the American Economic Association's (1969) compilation, Schultz was referenced in the index more than any other economist, and all twenty-two references to his works refer to studies of U.S. agriculture (and only two of them to his work on human capital). In this paper, I review Schultz's contributions under two headings: the economics of farming and agricultural policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research to date suggests that occupation clusters may be at least as important as industry clusters in driving regional competitive advantage. A nationwide mapping of occupation clusters, with data available for every U.S. county and the capability to aggregate counties to a regional level, serves as a powerful complement to an understanding of industry clusters, the major focus of a previous EDA-funded project conducted by partners in this research team. This paper explains the importance of occupation cluster analysis, how 15 different occupation clusters were developed as part of this study, the results and products from the analysis, and the applications and implications of using occupation cluster analysis at the local and regional levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with several of the issues induced by the present day crisis, as seen from an EU academic perspective. It draws on the fact that the triggering point was easily located by most European sources in the USA and tries to depict objectively this exogenous/endogenous situation that was distorted in so many ways by partisan views. Further on, it browses through the potential ways out of the crisis, analyzing schemes that could be interpreted as either global, European or/and Romanian ones. The whole approach has objectively embedded micro/macroeconomics content, as well as of economic policies within this negative juncture, but beyond this the focus would be on how these themes should be taught to Romanian undergraduate students. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to address the root causes of rising imbalances in the US economy. There is the view that the dominance of the liberal economic philosophy among the American decision makers and business elite resulted in marginalization of the role of the economic government. As a result, the US economy is facing problems in many sectors and might be poorly prepared to face the challenge of globalization in the knowledge-based industries. Design/methodology/approach - The paper provides review and critique of the contemporary literature of "declininists" proclaiming the end of the American Empire. Findings - In order to restore the strength of the US economy and utilize its potential, Americans must consider a new generation of politicians and legislators capable of reforming the tax system, stepping up the supervision of the financial sector, eliminating inequality in education and reforming the electoral system. Research limitations/implications - America is at a turning point. The problems of the American economy are home-made, but their implications are international. In the last two decades the USA pursued a dysfunctional dual dependence on imports of manufactured goods and capital. Allowing the dollar devaluation has been a short-sighted policy which will have dire consequences on import-dependent economy and the USA's position in the world economy. Liberal prescriptions of self-regulating markets cannot replace long-term government economic strategy which America badly needs today. Practical implications - Since the liberal wishful-thinking failed, economists, politicians and legislators should stop evoking conservative liberal mantras and start working on responsible economic policy solutions before the US economy plunges into a deep recession and years of damaging pessimism. Originality/value - Rather than repeating arguments of the authors proclaiming the end of American Empire, the paper looks for chances and opportunities for the US economy's rejuvenation in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Ensayos de Política Económica is the property of Pontificia Universidad Catolica Argentina and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper examines the recent history of State-level policies in the United States for knowledge-based economic development, and identifies an emerging model based on technology creation. This new model goes beyond traditional investments in technology transfer and prioritizes cutting-edge scientific research in economically relevant fields. As research-intensive universities are indispensable for technology creation, these policies have yielded substantial new investments in university science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) was designed to reveal the economic, social, and environmental trade-offs associated with conventional economic growth as traditionally measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Although originally designed for use at the national scale, an interest has developed in the United States in a state-level uptake of the GPI to inform and guide policy. This study presents the first fifty-state estimate for U.S. GPI in order to address questions over its design, implementation, and ultimate potential as a tool to guide state-level economic policy. Following a review of the current state of analysis and critique of GPI, we provide an overview of methodology and database development. Results are then presented, including discussion of lessons learned through a fifty-state application. The paper concludes with suggestions for further research and next steps to consolidating a consistent methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article comments on a paper which evaluated the challenges of designing short- and medium-run monetary policy for controlling inflation in the U.S. Anticipatory monetary policy was not universally popular or understood. A number of people asked how the U.S. Federal Reserve could be confident that inflation would have accelerated in the absence of tightening. Moreover, this was not the first time policy actions had been taken in advance of economic developments. For instance, short-term rates were raised in 1984 while unemployment was still elevated, helping to prolong the expansion. More recently, the U.S. Federal Reserve eased policy in 1989 when economic activity softened even as inflation was relatively high and rising. This comment focused on the problems encountered by the study's author, Stephen Cecchetti, in which he predicted future inflation by adding one indicator to past inflation. These tests suffered from a lack of consideration of structural issues. Indicator exercises by their nature submerge the fundamental behavior relationships among economic and financial variables. In addition, even some of the indicator variables themselves seem not to have been specified with close regard for a sense of the underlying structure of the economy or theory that might link the indicator to inflation.

The article focuses on econometric growth model of the U.S. There has been increasing concern among academic economists and other interested parties during the past several years about the related problems of economic growth and what appears to be an undesirably high plateau of persistent unemployment in the economy. The rates of growth of capital formation and output in the U.S. have been compared unfavorably with those of both the Soviet Union and the resurgent economies of Western Europe. At the same time, the recent tendency of the unemployment level in the U.S. to remain above 5 per cent of the labor force even during comparative boom periods has been a matter of some consternation. Whether the first problem exists or can be simply attributed to the free market's reflection of a utility function which possesses a positive time preference for current output as opposed to the future production of goods and services, and whether the second problem can be blamed upon such disaggregated factors as technological changes, shifts in demand, and labor immobility are questions which it is hoped can be at least partially answered in this paper.

Copyright of Foro Internacional is the property of El Colegio de Mexico AC and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In the last two centuries, the reallocation of labor out of agriculture has been a dominant feature of structural change and economic growth in the United States. This paper uses an accounting framework founded in economic theory to decompose this reallocation into three components: a demand-side effect due to the low income elasticity of demand for agricultural goods (Engel effect), and two supply-side effects, one due to differential sectoral productivity growth rates (Baumol effect), and the other to differential capital deepening. The results show that the Engel effect accounts for almost all labor reallocation until the 1950s, after which the Baumol effect becomes a key determinant. Our framework provides a unified account of long-run structural change, and demonstrates that historical interpretations and theoretical models that emphasize only one dimension of this process cannot properly account for the dramatic history of labor reallocation in the United States. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

When significant government action is needed and sought, as in the current financial crisis and weak economy, it is easy to forget the underlying market principles that have made the U.S. economy the strongest in the world. Adherence to these principles is the surest path to continued economic growth and stability over the long run. Of particular importance are policies that allow flexibility in labor markets; free movement of capital, unimpeded by excessive regulation; tax rates that minimize disincentives for the development of human and physical capital; and liberalization of international flows of goods, services, and capital. Regarding the current credit crisis, its effect on the real economy has been amplified by falling asset prices and high oil prices. Policy will be continuously evolving, but the $700 billion stabilization package is an important step. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article describes Herbert Hoover's determination to use the economic relationship between the U.S. and Latin America in the public and private realms to promote the cause of peace after the First World War. The author argued that Hoover failed to achieve his coveted objective because of his acceptance of a natural division of labor globally. He identified Latin America in a purely economic sense as potentially a vast marketplace for his country's manufactured and agricultural products, as a source of basic raw materials for industries. In his memoirs Hoover recalled that, although Latin America provided a receptive market for capital from the U.S., some of the loans bankers made to Latin America had been of a dubious quality

Productivity growth in the US economy jumped during the second half of the 1990s, a resurgence that the literature linked to information technology use. We contribute to this debate in two ways. First, using the most comparable Canadian and US data available, we quantify in a comprehensive way the contributions of information technology to output, capital input, and productivity performance. Second, we examine the extent to which information technology-producing and information technology-using industries have contributed to the aggregate multifactor productivity revival. Our results suggest that while information technology is indeed the story in the US productivity revival, it is only part of it in the Canadian context. The US labour productivity revival is primarily attributable to information technology capital deepening and multifactor productivity gains of information technology-producing industries, a finding that somewhat contrasts with the common US wisdom. The Canadian evidence points towards the importance of multifactor productivity gains in information technology-using industries as a major source of productivity acceleration. These results stand even after a "correction" for the methodological differences in the measurement of information technology prices at the industry level, thereby indicating important differences in the economic structures between the two countries. The continuation during the 2000-2003 period of the rapid multifactor productivity gains that started during the late 1990s tends to suggest that little of this productivity upsurge was cyclical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the study on the economic growth and development in the U.S. Many economists and international organizations argue that investment in education is a policy priority. Recently, some studies have provided more reliable findings on specific policies and programs. This article examines this recent work in detail. The article, therefore offers three objectives which is to review the literature on the relationship between school and teacher characteristics, and the acquisition of cognitive skills, to examine the relationship between schooling and labor productivity, and to investigate the relationship between cognitive skills and socioeconomic outcomes other than labor productivity. A final section summarizes the findings and provides recommendations for future research.

In recent years the American states have begun to adopt new types of economic development policies, variously called "demand side" policies, industrial policy, or interventionist policy. In this paper the authors discuss the emergence of these policies and the political and economic changes in states which led to their consideration. Two explanations for their adoption are developed--the business capture hypothesis and the meso-corporatist hypothesis. These differing interpretations are tested with data on state interest groups, government capacity, and economic stress. Data on policy adoptions by 1986 show that the meso-corporatist model provides a better account of industrial policy than does the business capture hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional business cycle theorists have debated the thesis that as a region becomes more economically diversified, the economy of the region becomes less responsive to fluctuations in extraregional economic activity [Nourse 1968, p. 176]. Based upon this thesis, much regional growth policy discussion revolves around the development of strategies designed to induce greater economic diversification. This is particularly true in rural areas which specialize in primary products and have realized frequent fluctuations in economic activity. This paper is not intended to enter into the debate regarding the pros and cons of a diversification development strategy. Rather, it has a more modest objective which is to consider a method for measuring economic diversification. For purpose of illustration, the measure is then applied to state and regional economic diversification in Wyoming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The theme of the October 29-31, 1990, ORSA/TIMS meeting in Philadelphia was "Productivity and Global Competition." This paper, which is an address given there, pursues this theme by emphasizing the importance of knowledge in contrast to natural resources as the critical ingredient in economic development in the future, and stresses the rapidity with which knowledge is transferred across national boundaries and the impossibility of restraining it, It forecasts that the competition among nations will lead to a situation in which no notation dominates international trade the way the United States did from the end of World War II until the early 1970s. Rather, the leadership will change in a pattern in which one nation innovates and others begin to follow and erode that innovation. Thus, in the long run, the critical ingredient will be the proportion of the GNP that a nation is willing to devote to research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article evaluates alternative economic policies for the revitalization of central cities in the U.S. The formulation of suitable policies and strategies for improving the economic viability of U.S. central cities constitutes one of the most crucial tasks facing policymakers in the urban field. The problem has become increasingly severe for the large number of central cities in the North East, North Central, and Western states. The basic issue is one of determining the character, dimensions, and magnitudes of policies that will reverse the process of cumulative decay and propel urban core areas into a new orbit of self-sustaining development. The central city can be considered the core of a metropolitan area or of other functional economic regions encompassing one or more states that make up the nation. In recent times questions have been raised pertaining to what constitutes the proper unit of urban analysis--the central city, Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The dynamics of any socioeconomic system can be explained by the fact that there is usually circular causation among its endogenous conditions, that is, if one condition changes, others will change in response. The process of revitalization requires the creation of conditions which would bring about self-sustained economic development. An important determining factor here is the employment process which in turn depends on the industrial structure, the nature of human capital formation and related factors which are well-known.

This article discusses the stability properties of optimal economic policies in the U.S. Stochastic elements have a stabilizing influence, rather intriguing in view of the fact that in purely descriptive dynamic models such disturbances tend to be destabilizing. Basically the reason for this is that the existence of stochastic elements exerts an inhibiting influence on the policy maker, causing him to adjust his instruments more cautiously than he otherwise would, thereby dampening the adjustment and making it stable. At the same time it means that typically there is correspondingly less response in the target so that as in this example it may no longer be optimal to drive it to its desired equilibrium each period. In this sense the stochastic disturbances exert a destabilizing effect, although of course the target still remains stochastically stable. Thus a kind of tradeoff between the two kinds of stability is seen to occur, although overall the entire system is stochastically stable.

This article focuses on the role of postsecondary education in state economic development strategies in the U.S. The renewed recognition that the U.S. society rests on a strong economy has stimulated strong interest among state policy-makers in possible strategies for economic development. Among these strategies, increased attention has been focused upon the potential role of education. While many policy-makers at the state level seem to be turning their attention to the role of postsecondary education in economic development, a review of the relevant literature reveals very little in the way of policy recommendations or evaluation of the efficacy of this approach to economic development. Published material on the relationship of vocational-technical education to economic development is more widely available. While this is undoubtedly due in part to this sector's long-standing interest in economic development, it is also due to the efforts of the National Center for Research in Vocational Education. Given the substantial interest that exists in the possible role of postsecondary education in economic development, a descriptive study of the organizational and working relationships between the postsecondary education community and economic development was undertaken and a limited number of states were selected for study.

In a recent research paper by Bruno Frey and Friedrich Schneider (to be called FS for later reference) presented some interesting results on the political-economic interactions in the U.S. for the period 1953-1975. According to these results, the state of the economy (represented by unemployment, inflation and the growth of private consumption) exercises a significant influence on presidential popularity on the one hand and, on the other, there is substantial evidence that the president manipulates economic policies (government nondefense expenditures, transfer payments, and civilian jobs created in the public sector) to get himself reelected. However, the purpose of this article is first to point out some shortcomings of their model, and then to test their model against our own with the same set of data. The model of the reaction function, as formulated by FS, has some shortcomings, it was made largely a function of political variables and it was developed in terms of individual instruments of fiscal policy only.

This article classifies the role of speculators in economic activity of the U.S. Most noneconomists would probably argue that speculation is socially undesirable for two reasons. First, speculation increases uncertainty about the future by creating disturbances and fluctuations in the economy. Second, by engaging in speculative activity, traders who exert an important influence in a market may be able to make profits at the expense of smaller traders who are not primarily involved in the market for speculative purposes.

Portes, Richard D. DECENTRALIZED PLANNING PROCEDURES AND CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES, pp. 422–429. Central planning in Eastern European nations continues in the face of decentralization. Decentralization itself is a consequence of central planning. This raises questions of price duality, and overlapping jurisdictions. Decentralization in these nations is a matter quite different from that in other states. Biblio. Nagy, Tamas. THE HUNGARIAN ECONOMIC REFORM, PAST AND FUTURE, pp. 430–435. A review of progress in implementing the Hungarian economic reforms of 1968. Great strides have been made. Exports are growing, wages are climbing slowly, and more consumer goods are on the market. Future reforms include a firmer tariff policy and increased capital for capital investment. Ames, Edward and Balassa, Bela. DISCUSSION, pp. 436–439. A closing discussion on economic planning as presented by Portes and Nagy. Historical Abstracts, Part B, Vol. 22, 1976. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One way to determine the answer to the question of Soviet Union's success in matching the industrial achievements of the U.S. is to make an industry-by-industry comparison of growth in physical output of both the countries, in each case confining the comparison to periods in which the U.S. and Soviet industries were of equivalent size. Soviet industry seems still to be roughly three and a half decades behind its counterpart in levels of output and about five and a half decades in levels of per capita output. This is a generalization about average performance rather crudely defined, in some areas the Soviet Union is much closer to The U.S. historically, in others much further behind. The development of Soviet industry is roughly equivalent to what took place in The U.S. in four decades bracketing the turn of this century, in per capita terms, in an even earlier period ending around the turn of the century. Third, over the Soviet era as a whole, Soviet industries have generally lost historical ground to their American counterparts, the lags have generally increased, in terms of both total and per capita output. That is, growth from the same level of output, total or per capita, has been slower in Soviet than in American industries.

The article focuses on differences in economic development between the United States and Latin America. The ownership of a landed estate in colonial Latin America was a source of wealth and was a mark of social distinction. From the ranks of the landed families came many of the leading civilian officials, the high army officers, and prominent church authorities. It was the landed aristocracy that comprised the top layer of the social structure in colonial Latin America. In Latin America, a strong impulse was given to the commercialization of economic life. In the United States, the system of small landholdings which took hold during the colonial period was continued and extended after independence through the disposal of public domain by the federal government. The wide distribution of land ownership in the United States epitomizes the dominant middle-class character of American social organization. The broad middle-class market in this country was a potent force in the development of mass production methods in manufacturing. Social system of the United States attracted immigrants, adding their manpower and skills to the productive capacity of the country. No country in Latin America has had such a fine combination of physical resources and conditions to work with as the United States.

This article focuses on the adequacy of the growth record of the American economy in recent years. Within the past several years the question of whether or not the economy is advancing at a rapid enough pace has become a matter of serious interest to the general public as well as the economic specialist. This is true to such an extent that the economy's allegedly inadequate growth rate became one of the major issues in the 1960 presidential election campaign. The question of the adequacy of the growth performance of the American economy has been brought forcefully to public attention from a number of responsible and professionally competent sources. The central question in any discussion of the adequacy of the growth record of the economy is that of criteria. Evidence based upon per capita data rather than growth rates suggests that the economy's performance from 1944 through 1960 was relatively unsatisfactory. Real gains of sizable proportions were recorded in living standards as reflected in per capita consumption outlays, but the primary source of such gains was not the sustained growth iii the economy as a whole, but a large-scale shift in the end-use of the nation's total output. As the 1950's drew to a close, however, the possibilities of further progress in living standards from this particular source were becoming exhausted. The same holds for any future increases in the other major components of the output total, particularly investment outlays. In retrospect, therefore, the era 1945-1960 was primarily one in which the fruits of the economy's massive ware tune surge of growth were adapted to peacetime uses. It was not, an era of satisfactory growth.

The shrinking middle class and increasing income polarization in the United States are issues of concern to policy makers and others. Economic development incentives are a key policy tool used at the state and local levels to promote local economic growth, and, presumably, provide employment opportunities. However, these incentives may have unintended consequences that may be contributing to the decline of the middle class. The authors combine detailed industry-level detail on incentives with proprietary county-level industry employment data and two methods for defining middle-class industries. Using an instrumental variable approach, the authors estimate how differential economic development policies affect middle-class jobs. The authors find evidence that incentivizing creative-class and high-wage industries may be contributing to the hollowing out of the middle class. Without hurting employment in other industries, targeting working-class and middle-wage industries alleviates this trend, while reducing incentives on creative-class and high-wage industries could help increase working and middle-class employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the barriers that prevent closer cooperation between policymakers and economists at the state level. It also outlines areas where academic research could be directed to provide immediate assistance to state policymakers. Economists typically view capital markets as complying with most of the requirements of a perfectly competitive environment. Yet the complex effects of federal and state taxes and the detailed regulation of financial institutions by both state and federal agencies probably distort flows of capital between different types of investment. The expanding role of state governments in managing local economic growth has not been matched by any growth in our understanding of how state policies can be used most effectively to attain public policy objectives. Academic research is needed to assist state policymakers during this period of rapid transition. But to prove useful, the research will have to be conducted in a way that takes into account the legislative and institutional framework within which state policy is conducted.

This study shows that the skill differential in manufacturing, when measured on the national level, has remained surprisingly stable over the 1952–73 period, in spite of its history of narrowing throughout the first half of the century and the severe pressures of inflation during the years since 1965. At the level of individual cities, however, this skill differential is shown to be moving toward convergence at one of two points, with differentials tending to be considerably wider in less unionized cities than in more unionized Cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article considers the reasons for the poor economic performance of the United States since the 1960s. The author claims that inflation and its effect on economic growth, per capita wage levels, and business investments caused corporations to become less competitive and lose technological superiority. Ford Motor Co. is considered as an example of the blindly selfish actions of a corporation and the self-destructive effects that an organizational ideology can have on both the organization itself and society at large.

The article focuses on the role imported funds play in California's (CA) economic development. It comments on the role that out-of-state mortgage investments have played in the provision of real estate facilities such as housing. It states there are six primary sources for mortgage investment funds in CA: savings and loan associations, life insurance companies, the U.S. Federal National Mortgage Association, mutual savings banks, commercial banks, and the domestic Cal-Vet program, with the single largest out-of-state investor being life insurance companies. It comments on transmission belts for capital imports with the most significant transmission belt being federal housing credit programs.

This article explains how industrial growth is related to expanding metropolitan areas and sets forth specific recommendations for assuring balanced growth of the two. Two specific questions which are which are fundamental to an understanding of the problem are discussed. First, what is the relationship between the expansion of manufacturing and population growth in metropolitan areas? Second, how can the available resources of an area be most effectively managed as population expands? These questions are considered as they apply to several developing metropolitan areas in California.

An inquiry into the relationships between credit policy and the three great centers of economic power-government, business, and organized labor-uncovers a need for some "hard" decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The U.S. economy faces sizeable headwinds to keeping GDP growth even at 2% over the next decade. Demographics imply that labor force growth will be much slower than historical norms. The enormous twentieth century increase in average educational attainment is unlikely to be repeated. And the best guess for productivity growth is that it will continue to be modest-perhaps along the lines seen in the 1970s to early 1990s, or since 2004. There are no easy cures for low growth. We can hope for another wave of broadbased IT-linked innovation. But while there is enormous uncertainty, even worthwhile policy steps are unlikely to move the dial very much on their own. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the issues surrounding fiscal and economic policy in the U.S. Topics discussed include impact of fiscal policy on the economic development of the country; enactment of Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act for protecting the U.S. citizens; and analysis of Congressional Budget Office in outlining the federal budget of the country.

In the United States, total government spending, and especially government social spending, has increased greatly over the last 50 years. What effect this has had on economic growth is a subject of intense debate among politicians, policymakers, and economists. However, there has been less attention paid to the distributional effects of government spending even though economic inequality has grown greatly over the last generation and much social spending is at least indirectly intended to reduce inequality. The effects of government social spending in the United States on growth in family income at deciles of the income distribution were estimated. The results suggested that social spending but not non-social spending was likely to increase growth in family income per capita measured over 10-year intervals. The largest effects of social spending were for deciles below the median income. At no point in the distribution does social spending have a negative effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses how Americans at different periods of time have understood the distinction between private and the public. Topics discussed include constitutional conflicts of the New Deal era, series of domestic programs in the U.S., related to public/private distinction; private quality of economics; the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court case 'Meyer v. Nebraska.'

Recent research by Baker et al. (2013) has created a historical indicator of economic policy uncertainty in the United States, based on an index score derived from content analyses of major U.S. newspapers. Empirical work using this measure has primarily focused on the economic consequences of shifts in economic policy uncertainty. The purpose of this project is to make the first empirical attempt at assessing whether changes in economic policy uncertainty have any role on the tone the President of the United States adopts when speaking about general economic conditions. Using the economic policy uncertainty information devised by Baker et al. (2013), and contrasting this with information about presidential rhetorical tone about the economy developed by Wood (2007), the vector autoregression analysis indicates prior levels of economic policy uncertainty Granger-causes current presidential rhetorical optimism about the economy. The moving average representation analysis suggests that an increase in the economic policy uncertainty index results in a decrease in presidential rhetorical optimism about the general economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased turnover among legislators can make them short-sighted, affecting fiscal policy and economic growth. We exploit the exogenous variation in legislative turnover induced by term limit laws and by redistricting in the 50 U.S. states, finding that increased turnover increases capital spending by state governments, which may be designed to constrain future governments. The changes may cause long-run distortions in the economy, reducing long-term economic growth. ( JEL H72, H73, H76) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Technological innovation is a long-recognized catalyst for economic growth in the United States, and its promotion is an important feature of national economic policy, as evidenced by the presence of various tax incentives for innovation in the US Internal Revenue Code. Tax incentives are an important means by which governments can deliver subsidies to promote such innovation. To be effective, however, any system of tax incentives must be tailored for current economic conditions and competitive landscapes. In the current ecosystem of innovation in the United States, this means that, at the very least, the incentives for innovation in the US Internal Revenue Code should narrowly deliver benefits to entities that create, transfer, and productively use intellectual property (IP). Moreover, there should be no opportunities for nonpracticing entities to misappropriate such benefits. But there currently are. This Article surveys the current regime of tax incentives for technological innovation and other areas of the US Internal Revenue Code affecting the economic choices of entities involved in the creation and dissemination of technological IP. It illustrates instances within the US Internal Revenue Code and its regulations where distinguishing between the "good" guys (operating companies and IP intermediaries) and the "bad" guys (nonpracticing entities) would better tailor the incentives therein to promote innovation in the modern IP ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article estimates the county-level impact of the Michigan Economic Growth Authority (MEGA) Credit targeted tax incentives to firms from 1995 through 2002. The authors employ a fixed effects instrumental variable model with spatial and time autocorrelation function tested on aggregate income, employment, the unemployment rate, and sectoral activity in manufacturing, wholesale, and construction. The authors find no impacts of the MEGA credit program on county-level aggregate employment, unemployment rates, wages, or incomes. Furthermore, there is no impact of manufacturing or warehousing credits on employment or wages in these sectors. The authors do find that MEGA credits produce a transient impact on construction employment (a drop in construction wages is statistically but not economically significant). The construction impact of MEGA is an estimated $123,000 investment per construction job. Generally, 75% of these jobs last for 1 year, with the remaining 25% lasting only into the second year. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Attempts to create an index of innovation have focused almost exclusively on countries or states. These existing indices also weigh various drivers of innovation equally without regard to their relative effect on economic development. This article has two distinct parts. In Part I the authors develop an index of innovation at the county level. They describe the rationale for selecting innovation measures based on the literature. This section goes into detail about measures and data. Part II statistically analyzes the data for all U.S. counties to assess the relative importance of the innovation factors on GDP-per-worker growth. The researchers also investigate whether the relative importance of the drivers of innovation differ depending on county scale and other characteristics that are often used to differentiate rural from urban. Initial analysis suggests that innovation influences can vary depending on the size of the county and the rural—urban divide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]