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We present an analysis of a 39-yr record of continuous atmospheric CO2 observations made at Baring Head, New Zealand, filtered for steady CO2 mole fractions during southerly wind conditions. We discuss relationships between variability in the filtered CO2 time series and regional to global carbon cycling. Baring Head is well situated to sample air that has been isolated from terrestrial influences over the Southern Ocean, and experiences extended periods of strong southerly winds with low CO2 variability. The filtered Baring Head CO2 record reveals an average seasonal cycle with amplitude of 0.95 ppm that is 13% smaller and 3weeks earlier in phase than that at the South Pole. Seasonal variations in a given year are sensitive to the timing and magnitude of the combined influences of Southern Ocean CO2 fluxes and terrestrial fluxes from both hemispheres. The amplitude of the seasonal cycle varies throughout the record, but we find no significant long-term seasonal changes with respect to the South Pole. Interannual variations in CO2 growth rate in the Baring Head record closely match the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, reflecting the global reach of CO2 mole fraction anomalies associated with this cycle. We use atmospheric transport model results to investigate contributions to seasonal and annual-mean components of the observed CO2 record. Long-term trends in mean gradients between Baring Head and other stations are predominately due to increases in Northern-Hemisphere fossil-fuel burning and Southern Ocean CO2 uptake, for which there remains a wide range of future estimates. We find that the postulated recent reduction in the efficiency of Southern Ocean anthropogenic CO2 uptake as a result of increased zonal winds is too small to be detectable as significant differences in atmospheric CO2 between mid- to high-latitude Southern Hemisphere observing stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New Zealand's space sector is at the early stages of growth but already attracts 1.5% of global private investment in space and contributes NZD 1.75 billion per year in revenue to the national economy. Growth has in part been due to the country's desirable location for space operations due to a combination of geographic advantages, with its clear seas and skies and access to a wide range of launch angles, a skilled workforce, and strong government financial incentives. There are however challenges to future space activities such as the risk to long-term access and use of Earth's orbital environment, specifically from space debris and a growing challenge to the whole-of-life of space operations, from the climate emergency and biodiversity crises. Consequently, there is increasing global motivation and urgency to quantify environmental consequences of space activities, which have historically been omitted from legislative and regulatory requirements. This paper provides a summary of the commercial development of New Zealand's space sector and where appropriate environmental regulation and legislation may have been overlooked, as well as outlining broader environmental concerns of space operations. New Zealand's emerging space industry offers a unique opportunity to integrate international best practices for environment and sustainability at a foundational level, for example, the European Space Agency's Clean Space Initiative and their Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Tool and Eco-design Framework. These types of tools provide valuable sources of information to support policy and business decisions. This paper provides a case study for an environmental LCA for a New Zealand designed and launched CubeSat which is the most launched satellite type from New Zealand. The case study indicates how the LCA can be used to identify environmental hotspots during the preliminary and detailed design phases as well as the launch event. Barriers and gaps in data collection have also been identified. As a result of this work, a set of recommendations have been made for further research requirements on the application of LCA to space activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: It is widely accepted that climate change is a rapidly increasing threat to the aquaculture industry, with the biggest issue being a slow but continuous rise in water temperature and an associated decrease in dissolved oxygen in some areas. In New Zealand fish farms, during the hottest period of the year (January/February), increased water temperatures have been shown to be detrimental to Chinook salmon performance and are associated with mortalities. We report on the responses of Chinook salmon to a chronic, long-term increase in temperature and decrease in oxygen over a three-month period. We also identified, characterised, and developed relevant biomarkers for Chinook salmon and applied them to monitor responses to changes in the fish's environment. This paper provides evidence on how the use of molecular tools, alongside general health and haematological parameters, have the potential to better inform the aquaculture industry of stock health status, thereby enhancing resilience, efficiency, and productivity. In New Zealand, during the hottest periods of the year, some salmon farms in the Marlborough Sounds reach water temperatures above the optimal range for Chinook salmon. High levels of mortality are recorded during these periods, emphasising the importance of understanding thermal stress in this species. In this study, the responses of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) to chronic, long-term changes in temperature and dissolved oxygen were investigated. This is a unique investigation due to the duration of the stress events the fish were exposed to. Health and haematological parameters were analysed alongside gene expression results to determine the effects of thermal stress on Chinook salmon. Six copies of heat shock protein 90 (HSP90) were discovered and characterised: HSP90AA1.1a, HSP90AA1.2a, HSP90AA1.1b, HSP90AA1.2b, HSP90AB1a and HSP90AB1b, as well as two copies of SOD1, named SOD1a and SOD1b. The amino acid sequences contained features similar to those found in other vertebrate HSP90 and SOD1 sequences, and the phylogenetic tree and synteny analysis provided conclusive evidence of their relationship to other vertebrate HSP90 and SOD1 genes. Primers were designed for qPCR to enable the expression of all copies of HSP90 and SOD1 to be analysed. The expression studies showed that HSP90 and SOD1 were downregulated in the liver and spleen in response to longer term exposure to high temperatures and lower dissolved oxygen. HSP90 was also downregulated in the gill; however, the results for SOD1 expression in the gill were not conclusive. This study provides important insights into the physiological and genetic responses of Chinook salmon to temperature and oxygen stress, which are critical for developing sustainable fish aquaculture in an era of changing global climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the impact of climate change, the use of both energy and resources that lock in future energy use is receiving heightened attention. New Zealand has lagged behind many similar countries in not requiring an explicit energy certification for dwellings. This paper reviews the form of energy certification used by similar countries and discusses the potential impact of applying the various forms to New Zealand dwellings. Specifically, it compares how different forms of comparison, or normalisation, value the features of a home and implicitly rate which dwellings are considered 'like' each other. Of the 85 buildings compared none received consistent rankings across all the normalisation methods and only one was in the 'better' half of the data under all nine of the normalisation methods used. Some of the forms of normalisation systematically advantaged large dwellings, and others small dwellings. Since normalisation methods can be chosen to value certain aspects of dwelling design, there needs to be a discussion about what we value in dwellings in order to determine which method(/s) would be appropriate for New Zealand. The main purpose of this paper is to alert social scientists of the need to have this value-based discussion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To provide the forest industry with a better understanding of alternatives to simulate future adaptation pathways under evolving climatic and socio-economic uncertainty, we review the literature on how adaptation decisions are modelled in the context of plantation forests. This review leads to the conclusion that the representation of adaptation behaviour and decision-making remain very limited in most of the agent-based models in the forestry sector. Moreover, theoretical frameworks used to understand the adaptation behaviour of forest owners are also lacking. In this paper, we propose the application of protection motivation theory (PMT) as a framework to understand the motivation of forest owners to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on their forest plantations. Furthermore, the use of PMT allows factors affecting the maladaptive behaviour of forest owners to be examined. A survey of New Zealand foresters showed that less than 10% of smallholder forest owners adopted adaptation strategies. This result highlights the importance of addressing the research question "what motivates forest owners to take risk reduction measures?" Exploring this question is crucial to the future success of the New Zealand forestry sector and we suggest that it can be addressed by using PMT. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for an agent-based model as an alternative to simulating adaptation pathways for forest plantations in New Zealand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Skinner, W.K., 2024. Coastal hazard assessment from multidecadal profile response incorporating climate patterns and sea-level rise. Journal of Coastal Research, 40(3), 511–526. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208. A new method for coastal hazard assessment is described and demonstrated by reference to a 40-year cross-shore profile record in Papamoa, New Zealand. It is based on a mathematical interpretation of the envelope within which long-term historic cross-shore profiles vary and from which, for the required assessment period, the statistically significant fully accreted-state and fully eroded-state profiles can be determined. The Monte Carlo method is used to derive stochastic outcomes for long-term trend (LTT) and sea-level rise (SLR) on the basis of correlations with, and a long term proxy for, a decadal-scale climate pattern, which in the example case is the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Sediment volumes for short-term fluctuation and the LTT are determined and conserved to reflect a consistent wave climate over the assessment period when appraising the effect of SLR. Dune biomass is accounted for when determining erosion scarp stability and hence the final extent of the current and future hazard zones. Results are presented in schematic form as excursions relative to a land benchmark and also as full end-state profiles extending from the dune backshore to the closure depth, with the latter determined by bar volume and profile. Various scenarios are appraised, including those that incorporate SLR predictions of the climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The relative risk of various scenarios is benchmarked to the probalistic expected outcome to produce a risk-based, site-specific assessment of coastal hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the role of the courts in climate change governance and considers possible avenues for involving the courts to compel Government towards climate change action in Aotearoa New Zealand. The use of tort arguments in climate change litigation and its applicability in the New Zealand courts is argued as placing untenable strain on longstanding doctrines. Finally, the largely unexplored potential for administrative law as a mechanism for compelling the New Zealand Government to take climate action is explored, suggesting that a public law approach is best placed to accommodate the legally disruptive nature of climate change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts on water resources and increasing demand for renewable electricity will have significant impacts on the management of hydroelectric power catchments globally. In New Zealand, where 55% of electricity currently comes from hydroelectricity generation, rainfall over the major South Island hydroelectric power catchments is expected to increase in coming decades, and the seasonality and volatility of that rainfall is expected to change. This paper uses a change factor methodology linked to a model cascade to estimate changes to hydroelectric power catchment inflows in 12 regions of New Zealand. These future river flows are then put through an all of New Zealand electricity system model to examine impacts on flows downstream of the hydroelectric power stations, lake storage, and spill in the large South Island hydroelectric power catchments. An overall 2% increase in annual hydroelectric power catchment inflows over the whole of New Zealand is projected between 2020 and 2050. Seasonal impacts are projected to be larger, with total New Zealand inflows projected to be 10% higher in winter and 6% lower in summer by 2050. Projected changes to inflows are equivalent to between -3% of current total summer New Zealand electricity generation and +5% of winter generation. The four main snow-fed hydroelectric power catchments in the Southern Alps (Pukaki, Tekapo, Clutha, and Manapouri) are predicted to get higher inflows than currently in winter, and lower inflows in summer, with a small increase in annual flows. Modelled changes to inflows and catchment management results in, on average, higher modelled lake storage levels in the snow-fed hydroelectric power catchments in the South Island, which are predicted to spend more time at full lake levels and less time at low lake levels in 2050 than in 2020. The changing inflows, combined with higher storage levels and changes in the electricity system, results in a potential doubling of modelled spill from the large South Island hydroelectric power scheme lakes by 2050. These significant seasonal changes to inflows will better match electricity demand, but the increase to annual spill levels is projected to more than offset any increases in annual inflows over the study period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through a theory-driven thematic analysis, the paper gauges how, since 1990, New Zealand (NZ) Governments have approached climate change ethics and provides insight into the importance of ethics in the broader context of sustainable development and global sustainability. Analysis of the policy-related data identified two main ethical themes labelled standard self-interest and advocacy. The data show that despite some advocacy consistent with urging the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in the international arena, Governments from 1990 to 2008 have held back to an extent on climate change policy development having operated broadly under a 'standard self-interest' approach. Since 2008, the current Government has also held back on policy development and is operating under a particularly narrow, highly unethical and unjust form of self-interest. Strong criticism of the Government is therefore warranted. The paper has also highlighted the significant consensus around the broad overarching operational conclusions of sustainable development. The paper concludes, inter alia, that the NZ Government should advocate to the international community to achieve, and among their people to support, the objective of the UNFCCC, while advocating at the national and international levels for a science-informed global ethic on sustainable development. The same logic would apply to all other UNFCCC members, of which it appears many are also operating unethically and unjustly on this global transformational issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In this paper we present novel evidence about heterogeneity in climate beliefs using a large-scale survey of farmers, foresters, growers, and lifestyle block owners in New Zealand. Using a flexible, conditional-moments approach, we estimate the interpersonal dispersion in climate change beliefs conditional on individual characteristics, which provides a direct measure of the heterogeneity in beliefs about climate change. Our results show that women, younger respondents, farmers with less family farming history, higher educated respondents, and those respondents who are less trusting in social media are more likely to believe in climate change. Further, beliefs are more heterogeneous among males (young and old), the less educated, and those who trust social media. Our results offer new insights allowing governments and NGOs to design and communicate policies to reduce the heterogeneity in climate change beliefs, which should support the uptake of climate change actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research undertakes a Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) to determine the climate change potential of a typical newly built steel detached dwelling in Palmerston North, New Zealand (NZ) and assesses its results concerning the 2 °C and 1.5 °C 2050 Paris Agreement targets. The proposed, upcoming policy and actions of the NZ government relating to its residential building and construction sector, which are set with an overarching aim to allow NZ to progress towards meeting the 2050 Paris Agreement targets, are also discussed in this paper. The results of the LCA demonstrate that the projected stock of steel-framed detached houses significantly exceeds the calculated climate budget and eventual 2050 Paris Agreement targets. For both the 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios, the magnitude of exceedance of the climate budget is 5.2 and 7.3 times more than the acceptable limit, correspondingly. These findings suggest that the sector will need to undergo a significant transition in order to fulfil the 2050 Paris Agreement targets. In the meanwhile, the sector's upcoming policies and regulations must be achievable while progressing toward achieving net-zero carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) Vision Mātauranga policy has created a clear message for researchers in Aotearoa/New Zealand – that research conducted in Aotearoa New Zealand should recognise and support the 'unlocking of the innovative potential of Māori for the benefit of all New Zealand' and be designed with a clear engagement pathway. However, there is still confusion amongst many researchers on where to begin when considering the Vision Mātauranga component of their research. Iwi and hapū management plans are a valuable resource for researchers to use as a starting point when planning projects, particularly with regard to Vision Mātauranga opportunities. Many of these plans outline the issues, challenges and resource priorities that an iwi or hapū may have, as well providing historical context for their knowledge and experiences. Despite their usefulness, our research found that only 22% of natural hazard researchers surveyed used them in their research process. The purpose of this paper is to raise awareness of the value of these plans for researchers, particularly when developing a research project; and to provide a starting point for engagement opportunities and activities with Māori. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the current state of knowledge of the Aotearoa New Zealand last interglacial (marine isotope stage 5, MIS 5, sensu lato) sea-level record compiled within the framework of the World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines (WALIS) database. A total of 77 relative sea-level (RSL) indicators (direct, marine-limiting, and terrestrial-limiting points), commonly in association with marine terraces, were identified from over 120 studies reviewed. Extensive coastal deformation around New Zealand has prompted research focused on active tectonics, the scale of which overprints the sea-level record in most regions. The ranges of last interglacial palaeo-shoreline elevations are significant on both the North Island (276.8 ± 10.0 to - 94.2 ± 10.6 ma.m.s.l. , above mean sea level) and South Island (165.8 ± 2.0 to - 70.0 ± 10.3 ma.m.s.l.) and have been used to estimate rates of vertical land movement; however, in many instances there is a lack of adequate description and age constraint for high-quality RSL indicators. Identified RSL indicators are correlated with MIS 5, MIS 5e, MIS 5c, and MIS 5a and indicate the potential for the New Zealand sea-level record to inform sea-level fluctuation and climatic change within MIS 5. The Northland Region of the North Island and southeastern South Island, historically considered stable, have the potential to provide a regional sea-level curve, minimally impacted by glacio- and hydro-isostatic adjustment (GIA) and reflecting near-eustatic fluctuations in a remote location of the South Pacific, across broad degrees of latitude; however, additional records from these regions are needed. Future work requires modern analogue information, heights above a defined sea-level datum, better stratigraphic descriptions, and use of improved geochronological methods. The database presented in this study is available open access at this link: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4590188 (Ryan et al., 2020a). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The New Zealand government has earmarked community energy as an investment mechanism that could assist the country in reaching its climate change goals, as well as lead to local benefits for its citizens. The objective of this paper is to identify what community energy initiatives are occurring in New Zealand, and the respective impacts that have arisen. A desk survey was undertaken, through an academic database and internet search to collect relevant resources and data. The country has a history of community energy initiatives; however, data on the impacts of community energy initiatives are scarce, at both a local and national level. The study also found diversity in the communities that are, or possibly could, benefit from community energy projects, each with differing motivations for participation. A national understanding of the successful impacts of community energy initiatives is needed, as well as more monitoring and analysis on the impacts of current projects. Ascertaining the true value of community energy is a complex task, but vital should development of these projects be pursued. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Develops and tests a conceptual framework of seasonal culture as rhythmic patterns. • Perceived seasonal patterns shift with climatic, environmental and social changes. • People maintain, recalibrate or detach from their seasonal patterns of activities. • Recalibrating seasonal cultures to shifting rhythms is sustainable adaptation. There is a growing literature on the cultural capacities influencing communities' adaptation to environmental and social change, including the temporal frameworks they draw on for timely action. This paper focuses on seasonal cultures, and how they enable communities on the Coromandel Peninsula to interpret and adapt practical timings to disrupted patterns of seasonal rhythms. The paper develops and applies a conceptual framework of seasonal cultures as perceived rhythmic patterns practiced by communities as cultural repertoires for action, emphasising the ways cultures evolve as patterns are contested and change. This concept steered critical, mixed-method ethnographic study with communities on the peninsula over two years. The research found that Coromandel communities' cultures make seasonal change visible as long-term shifts and asynchrony between rhythmic patterns, which they linked to climatic change, environmental degradation, colonisation and globalisation, and shifting relations between society and the environment. As seasonal patterns fail to hold, communities deploy a combination of strategies for re-configuring seasonal rhythms through their practices: (i) maintaining established, institutionalised schemas of activity while coping with seasonal variability; (ii) season-proofing activities from environmental rhythms; or (iii) re-learning and recalibrating cultures to mutable configurations of rhythms in a highly modified environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the current paper is to evaluate spatial and temporal characteristics of the distribution of bioclimatic comfort within the Arkhangelsk region (Russian Federation) with two modern indices of thermal comfort: PET and UTCI. Its average values calculated for the modern climatic period (1981-2010) in the monthly mean give a clear picture of spatial heterogeneity for the warmest month (July) and for the coldest one (January). The spatial picture of both indices in July allows us to distinguish three large internal regions: the Arkhangelsk province, the continental part of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (NAO) and Novaya Zemlya islands (NZ). Winter distribution of thermal discomfort is fundamentally different: the coldest regions (with extreme cold stress) are equally NZ and the eastern half of NAO; intermediate position is occupied by the west of the NAO and the extreme north-east of the Arkhangelsk region, the highest winter UTCI values are observed in the rest of the region. In Archangelsk-city extreme cold stress in January has repeatability 6.7%, in February - 4%, in December - 2.2%, respectively. The average number of time points during the year at which thermal stress is not observed is only 19%. Obtained results will be the basis for planning relevant health measures and providing reliable forecasts of the effects of climate change in the Arctic region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air temperature and precipitation outputs from 10 CMIP6 GCMs were input to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System hydrologic model to evaluate water and energy responses in three headwater basins to projected climate change over the twenty-first century. The headwater basins (398–801 km2) are located within the Mataura River basin in the South Island of New Zealand. CMIP6 datasets included two emission scenarios [shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5]. Half of the 10 GCMs selected in the study have equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) values above 4.5°C, which has been considered the upper end of equilibrium climate sensitivity. Modeling results included increased annual air temperature, evapotranspiration, and precipitation by the end of the twenty-first century for both SSP emissions scenarios, both high- and low-ECS GCMs, and all three headwater basins. Monthly precipitation and evapotranspiration totals also increased for all or most months. Monthly streamflow changes generally corresponded with monthly precipitation changes. Snowpack decreased significantly in depth and seasonal duration in all basins. However, streamflow increased for all SSP and ECS groups and basins because increased precipitation was consistently greater than increased evapotranspiration losses. Sources of uncertainty include the GCMs, climate sensitivity, downscaling, bias adjustment, emission scenarios, and the hydrologic model. Simulated hydrologic responses based on climate data from GCMs with ECS values of greater than 4.5°C could be less plausible since previous studies have suggested true ECS ranges from 1.5° to 4.5°C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the New Zealand landscape, the mahika kai sites (resource gathering areas) are marked through place names, which act as central reference points (whai take) for a wider ecosystem catchment area and indicate changes over time. The traditional ecological knowledge, awakened through place names, informs and influences the way Māori realise cultural, social, environmental, and economic aspirations and practices (past and present). This paper will draw from a research project in Te Wai Pounamu (South Island), New Zealand that utilises traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) surrounding the place name, Matainaka, which indicate places where Kāi Tahu (South Island Māori tribal group) gathered whitebait (īnaka, Galaxias maculatus): an important fresh water species. A major focus of the research project is the knowledge around socio-cultural tipping points that will impact directly on the future cultural, social and economic sustainability within a specific catchment location, the Waikōuaiti River. The river has spawning and fishing sites for the īnaka mahika kai and comes under the mana whenua (recognised traditional authority) of the Māori tribal group, Kāti Huirapa Rūnaka ki Puketeraki. Traditional ecological knowledge kōrero (speech) explains the importance of Matainaka and its contribution to the surrounding catchment area, and - in contemporary times - works alongside that of scientific knowledge. The project merged TEK and science to find ways to improve future planning and adaptation for habitat restoration and modification, and to lessen impacts on īnaka spawning sites from the expected impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This special issue reviews the state of biodiversity conservation in New Zealand, following the establishment of the Department of Conservation (DOC) in 1987. Here we summarise events that led to the formation of DOC, and the unprecedented series of changes in how biodiversity conservation has been viewed and conducted. Subsequent papers in this issue outline the successes, failures and key technological shifts in biodiversity conservation in New Zealand in the past 30 years; how visionary people and institutions have instigated conservation at landscape scales and in urban areas; the growing roles of Māori and non-Māori communities; and audacious new goals that reflect continuing attitudinal changes to the conservation of native biodiversity alongside the global and local implications of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Kench, P.S.; Ryan, E.J.; Owen, S.; Bell, R.; Lawrence, J.; Glavovic, B.; Blackett, P.; Becker, J.; Schneider, P.; Allis, M.; Dickson, M., and Rennie, H.G. 2018. Co-creating resilience solutions to coastal hazards through an interdisciplinary research project in New Zealand, In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 1496–1500. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Coastal communities ‘living at the edge’ face intensification and acceleration of coastal hazard risk in the face of climate change. Communities will need to be adaptive in reducing these risks now and over long timeframes. Developing coastal hazard adaptation pathways requires co-production of interdisciplinary knowledge between scientists, policy makers and communities. However, there remains little guidance and limited dialogue about the research practices and frameworks that underpin co-created research. In a first for New Zealand, a co-created research programme is underway titled ‘Living at the Edge’ that aims to improve the resilience of coastal communities to coastal hazards. This paper provides novel insights into the complexities underpinning the formative stages of co-created research, drawing on practical experience from the Living at the Edge project. We explore the enablers and shapers that led to co-created shifts in the research project objectives and framework. Notions of integration, trust, and flexibility are three fundamental aspects that influenced the early stages of co-creation. The importance of bridging interactions with actors early on in co-created projects is exemplified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the development and potential application of a nutritional Life Cycle Assessment (nLCA) method to rank meals, using a case study of a "toppings on toast" (ToTs) meal. Methodological issues are investigated in the context of application to support consumers to make more informed food choices at the meal level. Methods: Fourteen selected "toppings on toast" (ToTs) commonly consumed in New Zealand (NZ) were evaluated for their climate change impacts and nutritional value using the serve size of each topping as the functional unit (FU). NZ-specific climate change values were obtained from an existing database and recent literature. Nutritional value was calculated using the NRF family of indices - specifically the NRF9.3 and NRF28.3 indices (the latter constructed for this study to include all nutrients in the selected toppings for which reference values were available) and presented in a separate midpoint nutrition impact category. The NRF and climate change scores were assigned quartile-based weights, and the weight of each index score was averaged with that of the climate change score. Based on these average values, the toppings were ranked in two ranking sets (one for each index). In a sensitivity analysis, two alternative reference units were also used (100 g and 100 kcal) to investigate how different FUs influenced the final rankings. Results: The results showed that use of one or other NRF index affected the magnitude of the nLCA results; however, the rankings of the ToTs based on the nLCA results did not change much between the two indices. Avocado and peanut butter performed the best (top two ranks), and bacon, butter, and cheese were the poorest performers (bottom two ranks), for both the ranking sets. The toppings which did change ranks mostly moved up or down by only one position. Thus, the results of this case study suggest that the NRF9.3 index is sufficient to determine overall the best, medium, and worst performing toppings in the ToT meal context. However, the results also showed that water-soluble vitamins and unsaturated fats included in the NRF28.3 index contributed significantly to the nutritional scores for most of the toppings and were instrumental in the rank changes for the toppings which are particularly rich in these nutrients. Discussion: Thus, for a more diverse range of toppings/meals, an expanded index including these nutrients can generate more nuanced rankings. This study contributes to the nascent but fast-growing nLCA research field, particularly within the meal context. The method used in this case study could be applied in food composition databases, restaurant menus, and websites/apps that provides recipes for meals. However, the study also highlighted the potentially significant variability in climate change and nutritional values in the toppings associated with different production practices, seasonality, and different varieties of the same product. Any future development of nLCA-based meal level rankings should address this variability and communicate it to the consumer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Daily synoptic classifications developed by Kidson in the late 1990s have been updated through mid-2010. This paper documents the update in terms of the relative frequency of occurrence of the synoptic types and associated regimes, demonstrating that on average, synoptic type frequencies have not changed significantly over the past decade, although some long-term trends in occurrence frequency have been reported elsewhere. The regimes are associated in dynamically reasonable ways to the phase of the ENSO cycle and to the polarity of the SAM, with more zonal flow during El Niño and more blocking types during La Niña, more trough types during the negative SAM and more zonal and blocking types during the positive SAM. The synoptic types and regimes are closely associated with coherent daily climate anomalies, as illustrated using the highresolution Virtual Climate Station Network dataset. The mean magnitude of the daily climate anomalies associated with the Kidson types and regimes is much larger than suggested by Kidson's original results, because Kidson's results were based on regional averages and mixtures of the effects of different regimes within months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, a single-site stochastic precipitation model called ''the mixture of generalized chain-dependent processes conditioned on a climate variable'' was developed. The model can effectively eliminate overdispersion--that is, underestimation in variance of seasonal precipitation total. In this paper, the single-site model is further developed into a multisite stochastic precipitation model by driving a collection of individual single-site models, but with spatial dependence following a method proposed by D. S. Wilks. Specifically, a computationally effective algorithm for estimating the spatial dependence of precipitation occurrence is developed to replace the construction of the empirical curves in the Wilks method. An effective and straightforward approach for correcting the bias of the spatial correlation of precipitation intensity is also proposed. This model is tested on a small network of sites from a significant hydroelectric power generation region of South Island, New Zealand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the late 1960s, New Zealand and the United States collaborated to establish a southern hemispheric carbon dioxide (CO2) monitoring station on New Zealand's coastal cliffs. The New Zealand CO2 Project, as it came to be known, is an underappreciated landmark in the history of environmental monitoring. The archival record of its early years reveals the extent to which efforts to measure atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations interacted closely with one of the most hotly debated political issues of the mid-twentieth century: urban air pollution. The designation of CO2 as air pollution on a planetary scale had profound legal implications in an era in which clean air legislation increasingly brought air pollution within the scope of governmental regulation, and administrative agencies began to jostle for control of the monitoring enterprise. The precise nature of CO2 as an air pollutant, however, was difficult to pin down. In these initial years of concerted carbon dioxide monitoring, when the lines between climate science and air pollution research were still blurred, CO2 developed its many pollutant identities. The nature of these identities - and the ways in which scientists and science administrators negotiated their boundaries - retain their relevance today, as nations continue to link air pollution and climate legislation in the twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OzFlux is the regional Australian and New Zealand flux tower network that aims to provide a continental-scale national research facility to monitor and assess trends, and improve predictions, of Australia's terrestrial biosphere and climate. This paper describes the evolution, design and current status of OzFlux as well as an overview of data processing. We analyse measurements from the Australian portion of the OzFlux network and found that the response of Australian biomes to climate was largely consistent with global studies but that Australian systems had a lower ecosystem water-use efficiency. Australian semi-arid/arid ecosystems are important because of their huge extent (70%) and they have evolved with common moisture limitations. We also found that Australian ecosystems had similar radiation use efficiency per unit leaf area compared to global values that indicates a convergence toward a similar biochemical efficiency. The paper discusses the utility of the flux data and the synergies between flux, remote sensing and modelling. Lastly, the paper looks ahead at the future direction of the network and concludes that there has been a substantial contribution by OzFlux and considerable opportunities remain to further advance our understanding of ecosystem response to disturbances including drought, fire, land use and land cover change, land management and climate change that are relevant both nationally and internationally. It is suggested that a synergistic approach is required to address all of the spatial, ecological, human and cultural challenges of managing the delicately balanced ecosystems in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bactericera cockerelli Sulc, the potato / tomato psyllid (Solanum tuberosum and S. lycopersicum), is recognized as a threat to the production of solanaceous crops because it is an efficient vector of the bacterium Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum (CaLso) in the American continent, Europe, and New Zealand. The biological and genetic characteristics of the insect make its management difficult, and so do the high number of host, refuge. and feeding plants in which it can be found. Furthermore, the influence of climate change has caused psyllid populations to establish and colonize new areas and countries. At present, the psyllid vectors of microorganisms that cause diseases in plants are widely distributed, and studies are being carried out to understand the impact of their populations on intensive agricultural production systems. In the last decade, studies on the application of new biological control and management techniques have also increased aiming to count on fast and efficient alternatives for reducing the effects on crops and economy. A total of 74 scientific papers related to the host plants of these insect vectors, their biological and chemical control strategies, and the novel alternatives for their management were analysed. In order to maintain surveillance over the vector, the present status of the identification of these species in Cuba, the situation concerning the presence of the cultivation system. -psilid-CaLso in the world and the American and Caribbean regions, as well as the possible implications of the presence of these species for the Cuban agriculture were studied in depth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global food security could be threatened in the coming years by the emergence and spread of emerging pests in crops. Psyllids are considered as possible destructive pests due to their relationships with some important plant pathogens. Bactericera cockerelli Sulc (Hemiptera: Triozidae) is recognized as an efficient vector of the bacterium Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum (CaLsol), an invasive pest according to the EPPO, which causes diseases in potatoes, tomatoes, peppers, and other solanaceous and some apiaceous crops. Known the vector-bacteria complex to be present in different countries of the world belonging to the American continent, Europe and New Zealand, 61 scientific papers related to this topic were reviewed. Changes in the climatic variables, the biological distribution of this insect-vector system, the high ecological plasticity that allows this insect to develop different biotypes, depending on the characteristics of the area where it develops, could complicate the control of the insect-pathogen system. These characteristics make necessary a maintained extreme surveillance in those countries where it is not yet present. So far, the bacterium and the vector are not present in Cuba; however, its proximity to countries where it is present, the existence of optimal climatic conditions host plants, and the increasing tourism and international trade, make necessary to offer updated information on this disease, the causal agents and their vectors as a contribution to the preparation of the scientific-technical-productive personnel and other decission makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The radical principles behind the 1967 Woodhouse Report were eclipsed by shifting political styles--and gradually abandoned as heretical. We can now turn to Sir Owen's own notion, that "the apparent heresies of one generation become the orthodoxies of the next", to explore how core Woodhouse heresies might themselves perform this transition: providing fresh support for a generation grappling with headline challenges of climate change and pandemic control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A warmer and drier future combined with rising population trends will result in increased wildfire risk. The design of robust mitigation/adaptation strategies requires the assessment of the economy‐wide risks from potentially more frequent large wildfire events under different futures. This study uses a novel interdisciplinary approach by integrating wildfire climate and land‐use forecasts into probabilistic and simulation models of wildfires to estimate direct impacts using damage curves and indirect impacts as lost Gross Domestic Product (GDP) using a computable general equilibrium model. Based on the financial concept of Value at Risk, a probabilistic measure of extreme economy‐wide impacts was developed using GDP as the representative metric, namely "GDP at Risk (G@R)," under various climatic and socio‐economic scenarios. Using the new metric in the Waikato, New Zealand as a case study, due its primary industries' national relevance, it was identified that there is a 5% probability that the region will experience GDP losses greater or equal to NZ$0.1–1.2 billion (similar to the regional GDP growth in 2021) over a 48‐year period from future potential large wildfires affecting vulnerable primary industries. The regional impacts result in larger national GDP losses by a factor of 5 due to the high dependence of downstream sectors on the regional primary industries. While "G@R" estimates are similar across socio‐economic scenarios, there are no discernible patterns when compared across midcentury climate scenarios. The approach developed could be used to assess the consequences from afforestation projects, driven by mitigation policies, and adaptation strategies to reduce wildfire risk. Plain Language Summary: The risk posed by wildfires will increase under a warmer and drier future. Previous studies have estimated the economic risk from wildfires on the sectors that would likely be physically and directly impacted. However, to design inclusive and enduring strategies to reduce or adapt to wildfires; the potential impacts from wildfires should be assessed for entire national economic networks under many different social and climatic scenarios—including sectors that demand products from, or supply to, the ones directly affected. This study uses an interdisciplinary approach by combining computational models to estimate the potential economic impacts from wildfires on multiple sectors of the economy under various relevant scenarios. Rather than focusing on expected impacts, this study focuses on the potentially large impacts from rare, large wildfires on the Waikato region—economically important to New Zealand. The economic impacts from potentially more frequent large wildfires in the region are modest when compared to a scenario without large wildfires. However, the nationwide impacts are substantially larger than the regional ones when considering the dependent sectors outside of the affected region. The approach developed could be used to jointly assess mitigation (e.g., afforestation) and adaptation policies to reduce the risk from wildfires. Key Points: There is a 5% chance that the studied region will lose 0.008%–0.06% or more of the base Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from potentially more frequent large wildfiresThe regional impacts result in larger national GDP losses by a factor of 5 when considering the downstream sectors outside of the regionWhile the GDP loss estimates are similar across socio‐economic scenarios, there are no discernible patterns across climate scenarios [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal snow in New Zealand is likely to be subject to substantial change due to the impacts of climate change. These changes will have wide ranging impacts on the New Zealand's economy through the energy, agricultural and tourism sectors. In this paper, we assess the impact of climate change, at a micro-scale for a selection of ski area locations in New Zealand. Where available, we have used current observations of snow depth to calibrate the snow model output for the current climate. We consider the change in the number of days with snow depths exceeding 0.30 m, 'snow-days', at each of these locations for the 2030-2049 (mid-point reference 2040) and 2080-2099 (mid-point reference 2090) time periods, for the three different emission scenarios (B1, A1B and A1FI). These future scenarios are compared to simulations of current, 1980-1999 (mid-point reference 1990), number of snow-days at these locations. We consider both an average year in each 20-year period, as well as a 'worst-case' year. At each ski area, we consider an upper and lower elevation site. Depending on the elevation and location of the specific site, our analysis shows that there will be a reduction in the number of snow-days in nearly all of the future scenarios and time periods. When we consider a worst-case or minimum snow year in the 1990s, the number of snow-days at each site ranges from 0 to 229, while by the 2040s, it ranges from 0 to 187 (B1), 0 to 183 (A1B) and 0 to 176 (A1FI). By the 2090s the number of snow-days ranges from 0 to 155 (B1), 0 to 90 (A1B) and 0 to 74 (A1FI). We also simulate the hourly future climate for the 2040s and 2090s, for the A1FI scenario, to enable calculations of the potential available time for snowmaking in these two future time periods. We use simulated temperatures and humidity to calculate the total potential snowmaking hours in the future climates. For the snowmaking analysis, only a worst-case year in each time period, rather than an average year, was used to assess the snowmaking potential. This was done to ensure consistency with snowmaking design practices. At all sites, for the A1FI emissions scenario and for both future time periods, a reduction in potential snowmaking hours is observed. By the 2040s, there is only 82 to 53 %, and by the 2090s, there is only 59 to 17 % of the snowmaking time as compared to the 1990s in a worst-case year. Despite this reduction in snowmaking opportunity, snowmaking was still possible at all sites examined. Furthermore, the amount of snow which could be made was sufficient to reinstate the number of snow-days to the lesser of either that observed in the 1990s for each site or to exceed 100 days. While our snowmaking analysis has some limitations, such as neglecting calculation of melt in the man-made snow component, this study highlights the importance of considering adaptation options such as snowmaking for a more complete impact assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has the potential to cause a variety of effects on water resources. It is necessary to assess the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic systems to provide the information needed to develop rational management strategies to cope with such change. This paper reports on a case study of the Waimea Plains catchment located in the Tasman region, South Island, New Zealand. Two methods were used to assess the effects of climate change: (1) trend analysis of historic climate and hydrologic data from routine monitoring systems using the Mann-Kendall method; and (2) modelling of projected effects as a result of standard greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Trend analysis results were mixed. Statistically significant trends were noted for some climate and hydrologic variables but not others. Modelling started with regionally downscaled climate projections based on the IPCC A1B and A2 emissions scenarios. Modelling projections focused on downstream Waimea River flow and groundwater levels for the critical dry period of a record drought year. Both mechanistic computer modelling (MODFLOW) and artificial intelligence modelling were used. Key inputs for this model, such as rainfall recharge, were obtained from artificial intelligence modelling. Artificial intelligence modelling was also applied directly to project stream flow and groundwater levels. Modelling results were similar for both mechanistic and artificial intelligence models. Water usage increased but the decrease in rainfall recharge of groundwater was largely made up by increased stream recharge. The net result was substantial impact on stream flow but only minor effects on groundwater levels. Recommendations from this study include improved routine monitoring of hydrologic variables and expanded modelling efforts in other catchments under a wide variety of hydrologic and climate change conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global climate change literature suggests that at some point in the future it is possible that low-lying areas may be drowned due to rising sea levels, and a number of Pacific Ocean states could be particularly vulnerable. It is increasingly evident that the emerging scenario of environmental change has compounded more established push-pull factors leading to migration, and has provided a new imperative for migration decision-making. By interrogating the proposition that there is a clear distinction between the policy categories of 'migrants' and 'refugees,' we examine a hitherto un-defined group of Tuvaluan migrants whose movement is in response to environmental change and possible climate change effects. The paper examines Tuvaluan migration to New Zealand through various immigration schemes for permanent residency, with an emphasis on the International/Humanitarian stream. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concerns about climate change and water quality make it necessary to have a better understanding of the cycling of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) within landscapes. In New Zealand, pastoral farming on hill country is a major land use, and there is little information available at a landscape level on the cycling of C and N within these systems, particularly the impacts of land use intensification. Published information on the individual components of C and N cycles in hill country pastoral systems was used to construct simple C and N models for two notional hill country paddocks with contrasting amounts of annual net herbage accumulation (NHA). These simple models of C and N cycling were used to explore the potential impacts of intensification on soil C and N pools. The C and N models constructed illustrate that both the C and N cycles in hill country pastoral farming are characterised by large fluxes in and out of the system and relatively small annual accumulations or depletions of their respective soil pools. The mechanisms by which these inward and outward fluxes are generated differ greatly between C and N. Most of the C cycling through the soil/plant/animal system in a year is sourced from the atmosphere through photosynthesis in that same year and the annual quantity of C ingested by grazing animals is only approximately 25% of that fixed annually. In contrast, the annual quantity of N ingested by grazing animals is 300–400% of that added to the system annually by fixation, and most of this ingested N (>80%) is returned to the soil in animal excreta. This contrasts with <25% of ingested C returned in animal excreta. Grazing animals, with their propensity to exhibit camping behaviour, are therefore much more influential in the spatial redistribution of N than C in hill country pastures. The simple C and N models presented in this paper indicate that while land use intensification results in increased inputs of both C and N to the soil, intensification is also likely to result in increased losses of C and N from the soil pool. Which of these processes dominates in a given situation determines whether intensification will result in an increase or decrease of soil C and N. Based on a simple C model, we postulate that if intensification increases NHA by one unit there is likely to be an increase in soil C unless at the same time increased grazing pressure results in at least a three-unit increase in dry matter eaten/harvested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate is changing in response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. This change may have multiple hydrological effects. The most obvious effect of climate change on hydrology is through changes in rainfall patterns, but hydrology is also strongly affected by changing temperatures (e.g., changes in evapotranspiration and snowfall). In this paper we focus on the effects of climate change on the Clutha River, in the South Island of New Zealand. We present an analysis of the projected weekly averaged flows of the Clutha at Balclutha, comparing the current situation (1980-1999) with two future time periods (2030-2049 and 2080-2099) for one \"middle of the road\" emission scenario, A1B, using data from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The investigation used the distributed hydrological model TopNet, which includes a snow model. The model was validated against 20-year streamflow records for three locations in the catchment. Climate predictions of 12 different Global Circulation Models for the A1B scenario (as well as the average of those 12) were used as input to the model. In the future scenarios annual precipitation increases in this catchment. The total yearly streamflow increases as a response (∼6% for 2040 scenario and ∼10% for 2090 scenario); however the relative contribution of snowmelt to streamflow decreases. The most striking change is in the seasonality of streamflow. Streamflow in winter and spring increases substantially, whereas stream-flow in summer and autumn is relatively unchanged. Two factors contribute to this effect: 1) total precipitation increases over winter and spring (up to 40% in some areas of the catchment for the 2090 scenario), whereas it remains constant or decreases slightly over summer and autumn in some areas, and 2) during winter and spring, precipitation falls more often as rainfall (rather than snow) in the future scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diagnosing the climate of New Zealand from low-resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs) is notoriously difficult due to the interaction of the complex topography and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitude westerly winds. Therefore, methods of downscaling synoptic scale model data for New Zealand are useful to help understand past climate. New Zealand also has a wealth of palaeoclimate-proxy data to which the downscaled model output can be compared, and to provide a qualitative method of assessing the capability of GCMs to represent, in this case, the climate 6000 yr ago in the Mid-Holocene. In this paper, a synoptic weather and climate regime classification system using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of GCM and reanalysis data was used. The climate regimes are associated with surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies over New Zealand. From the analysis in this study, we find at 6000 BP that increased trough activity in summer and autumn led to increased precipitation, with an increased north-south pressure gradient ("zonal events") in winter and spring leading to drier conditions. Opposing effects of increased (decreased) temperature are also seen in spring (autumn) in the South Island, which are associated with the increased zonal (trough) events; however, the circulation induced changes in temperature are likely to have been of secondary importance to the insolation induced changes. Evidence from the palaeoclimate-proxy data suggests that the Mid-Holocene was characterized by increased westerly wind events in New Zealand, which agrees with the preference for trough and zonal regimes in the models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical abstract This work was supported by the Woolf Fisher Trust and the Cambridge Commonwealth, European and International Trust, in the form of a Woolf Fisher Scholarship (2014). Highlights • Few studies explore the processes and possible impacts of adaptation constraints. • A lack of empirical depth means that they are often ignored in policy formulation. • This paper proposes a method for exploring the empirics of adaptation constraints. • Numerical preference functions are estimated for 15 salient constraints. • These constraints could be modelled quantitatively and should no longer be ignored. Abstract The concept of adaptation constraints has become well known in the climate change literature. It describes impediments to the process of adaptation that could in principle be overcome but often are not. Many adaptation constraints have been identified and described in the literature across a wide range of contexts, and the importance of their influence on climate change adaptation is clear. However most studies have focussed on describing constraints rather than exploring their origins, processes, and possible impacts. As a consequence, it has been difficult to operationalise the concept to provide information meaningful to decision makers. This study demonstrates an approach to estimating empirically the processes and the impacts of adaptation constraints, based on a case-study of farmers in New Zealand. It combines established social scientific methods to explore the processes underlying a range of adaptation constraints and estimate the impacts that these constraints may have. The approach can be used to explore further the social and economic impacts of adaptation constraints. This information can then be used to consider sub-optimal adaptation to climate change more fully, and paves the way for policy responses that are more conscious of the human elements of climate change adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is strong evidence that the mean surface temperature of the Earth has risen significantly since 1900. Recent evidence suggests that, if warming of more than 2°C (above pre-industrial levels) is to be avoided, then the emissions of greenhouse gases by developed countries, like New Zealand, may need to fall by up to 70% by 2030 and 90% by 2050. Achieving such a rapid decarbonisation will require major changes in energy generation, transport fuels and behaviour, land use and urban design, underpinned by modifications to national policy frameworks, and changes in social attitudes and behaviour. This paper outlines the case for rapid decarbonisation, assesses the implications for New Zealand's economy and society, discusses the required policy changes and the likely economic and distributional impacts of such changes, and explores institutional factors influencing policy development and implementation. The paper draws on recent international and domestic studies of the likely economic and distributional impacts of policy measures to mitigate climate change. It also refers to some survey evidence concerning public attitudes towards climate change and the willingness of citizens to change their behaviour and support policy measures to reduce emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In terms of the effects of future climate change upon society, some of the most important parameters to estimate are associated with changing risks of extreme rainfall events, both floods and droughts. However, such aspects of the climate system are hard to estimate well using general circulation models (GCMs)—in particular, for a small mountainous landmass such as New Zealand. This paper describes a downscaling technique using broad-scale changes simulated by GCMs to select past analogs of future climate. The analog samples are assumed to represent an unbiased sample of future rainfall and are used to develop detailed descriptions of rainfall statistics using hidden semi-Markov models of rainfall breakpoint information. Such models are used to simulate long synthetic rainfall time series for comparison with the historical record. Results for three New Zealand sites show overall increases in rainfall with climate change, brought about largely by an increased frequency of rainfall events rather than an increase in rainfall intensity. There was little evidence for significant increases in high-intensity short-duration rainfalls at any site. Such results suggest that, although regional increases of rainfall are consistent with expected future climate changes, it may be that circulation changes, rather than temperature (and vapor pressure) changes, will be the more important determinant of future rainfall distributions, at least for the coming few decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vegetation of subantarctic Campbell Island consists mainly of lowland Dracophyllum scrub and upland tussock grassland and tundra. Soon after the island was discovered in 1810, occupation by sealers and whalers led to localized burning and cutting of scrub. Further burning and cutting took place as a result of sheep farming between 1894 and 1931. Since the earliest photographs and vegetation descriptions of the island in the late nineteenth century, scrub cover has expanded markedly. Also, since the 1960s, the island has become warmer and drier. The aim of this paper is to quantify scrub changes as depicted in photo-sequences from the island, and to establish if the spread of scrub is a result of the cessation of anthropogenic activities or a response to global warming. Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°33.7′S, 169°09′E). Changes in scrub cover in the island were established through analysis of 33 photographic sequences in the island, the earliest photos dating back to 1888. Visual estimates were made of percentage woody cover in matching areas of repeat photographs, and of changes in scrub distribution with altitude and landscape type. Dracophyllum scrub was restricted at the time of the first photographs (1888) relative to its present extent, and earlier written observations suggest that there had been little change from the 1840s. Scrub cover has subsequently increased in most areas. Most of the spread occurred after the cessation of farming. Change has mostly consisted of a thickening and expansion of pre-existing scrub patches. There is no indication that the upper elevational limit of scrub has increased. Initial reduction of scrub was probably due to anthropogenic fire in the early nineteenth century, although it is possible that less favourable climates had also restricted its distribution. Failure of the scrub to regenerate significantly between 1840 and c. 1895 may also have been a consequence of generally cooler, wetter climates at this time. Rapid scrub expansion began between the end of farming and burning in 1931 and 1988 when the remaining feral sheep were removed. Sheep grazing in the absence of fire reduced competition, and encouraged regeneration and growth of woody scrub. Spread was probably assisted by a pronounced shift to warmer, drier climates in the second half of the twentieth century. Upper elevational limits of scrub have not increased, suggesting that factors other than summer temperature are controlling scrub line in this superoceanic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sustainable management of Aotearoa's natural resources requires a system which is responsive to environmental changes. This will become more important in the future with the more frequent extreme environmental events predicted with climate change. The current system relies on statutory powers to review consents and adaptive management regimes to re-examine resource consents following environmental changes. This article focuses on two group consents to draw over 7,000,000 m3 of water per year from an aquifer in Northland. After these group consents were granted, a significant fire began which threatened the vulnerable wetland ecosystem. This article argues that the current system fails to respond to environmental events of this nature. With significant resource management reforms ongoing, it is crucial to consider how to create a responsive resource management system for a future dominated by the effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We formulate and compare optimization models of investment in renewable generation using a suite of social planning models that compute optimal generation capacity investments for a hydro-dominated electricity system where inflow uncertainty results in a risk of energy shortage. The models optimize the expected cost of capacity expansion and operation allowing for investments in hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, and thermal plant, as well as battery storage for smoothing load profiles. A novel feature is the integration of uncertain seasonal hydroelectric energy supply and short-term variability in renewable supply in a two-stage stochastic programming framework. The models are applied to data from the New Zealand electricity system and used to estimate the costs of moving to a 100% renewable electricity system by 2035. We also explore the outcomes obtained when applying different forms of CO2 constraint that limit respectively non-renewable capacity, non-renewable generation, and CO2 emissions on average, almost surely, or in a chance-constrained setting, and show how our models can be used to investigate the merits of a proposed pumped-hydro scheme in New Zealand's South Island. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of both a crisis of affordable housing and a climate and biodiversity crisis, what is the architect's responsibility to society and the planet? New Zealand architects' code of ethics is set out in legislation: Architects Rules 2006. These rules address the architect's obligation to the client and the profession. However, beyond a requirement to uphold the law and to report on risks to public health and safety, there are no specific rules addressing the impact of architecture on future occupants, wider society, the climate, or the biosphere. Arguably, architects are legally obligated to meet the needs and goals of their clients, over any responsibility they may feel to design socially and environmentally sensitive and resilient buildings. Feminist ethics of care emphasizes the importance of our relationships with others. Fundamental to care ethics is attentiveness to the needs of others who we are in relation with, and increasingly, our understanding of these relations is being extended beyond the direct relationship to a global and planetary view. Taking an ethics of care lens to the Code of Minimum Standards of Ethical Conduct for Registered Architects, we contend that these rules are inadequate to equip architects to face present and future challenges. We argue that responsible design needs to be embedded as an ethical obligation of architects. The underlying ethical framework of architects' professional ethics should be reconsidered in relation to the needs of our society and our planet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate and land use changes impact catchment hydrology and water quality (WQ), yet few studies have investigated the amount of land use changes required to meet specific WQ targets under future climate projections. The aim of this study was to determine streamflow and nutrient load responses to future land use change (LUC) and climate change scenarios. We hypothesized that (1) increasing forest coverage would decrease nutrient loads, (2) climate change, with higher temperatures and more intense storms, would lead to increased flow and nutrient loads, and (3) LUC could moderate potential nutrient load increases associated with climate change. We tested these hypotheses with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which was applied to a lake catchment in New Zealand, where LUC strategies with afforestation are employed to address lake WQ objectives. The model was calibrated from 2002 to 2005 and validated from 2006 to 2010 using measured streamflow (Q) and total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), nitrate (NO3-N), and ammonium (NH4-N) concentrations of three streams in the catchment. The model performance across the monitored streams was evaluated using coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) metrics to provide a basis for model projections. Future scenarios incorporated LUC and climate change (CC) based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and were compared to the baseline streamflow and WQ indicators. Consistent with our hypotheses, Q, TN, and TP loads were predicted to decrease with afforestation. Specifically, afforestation of 1.32 km2 in one of the monitored stream sub-catchments (subbasin 3), or 8.8% of the total lake catchment area, would result in reductions of 11.9, 26.2, and 17.7% in modeled annual mean Q, TN, and TP loads, respectively. Furthermore, when comparing simulations based on baseline and projected climate, reductions of 13.6, 22.8, and 19.5% were observed for Q, TN, and TP loads, respectively. Notably, the combined implementation of LUC and CC further decreased Q, TN, and TP loads by 20.2, 36.7, and 28.5%, respectively. This study provides valuable insights into the utilization of LUC strategies to mitigate nutrient loads in lakes facing water quality challenges, and our findings could serve as a prototype for other lake catchments undergoing LUC. Contrary to our initial hypotheses, we found that higher precipitation and temperatures did not result in increased flow and nutrient loading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate, high‐resolution and sector‐specific greenhouse gas emissions information is increasingly needed for the development of local, targeted mitigation policies. We describe a detailed, spatially and temporally resolved CO2 emissions data product, Mahuika‐Auckland, for Auckland, New Zealand, based on Auckland's regional greenhouse gas and air emissions inventories. Emissions are provided at 500 m spatial resolution and at a 1‐hr time step, a level of detail not previously available for any New Zealand city. We divide fossil fuel emissions into six sectors that comprise the majority of Auckland Region's CO2 emissions profile: on‐road transport, industrial non‐point buildings and point sources, commercial non‐point buildings, residential non‐point buildings, air transport and sea transport. We also include separate layers representing biogenic CO2 emissions (primarily waste and wood burning), as these are significant sources in Auckland. We distribute emissions spatially and temporally based on activity data, energy and fuel consumption patterns, and population statistics. The code to generate Mahuika‐Auckland has been designed to be flexible so that updated information and/or data from more recent years can easily be incorporated. This data product improves upon New Zealand's current inventories that are only resolved at the regional and annual scale, providing a new level of detail that can be used as a prior estimate for atmospheric inversions, to inform emissions reduction policies and to guide the development of zero carbon pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a deep-neural-network-based single-site stochastic precipitation generator (SPG), capable of producing realistic time series of daily and hourly precipitation. The neural network outputs a wet-day probability and precipitation distributions in the form of a mixture model. The SPG was tested in four different locations in New Zealand, and we found it accurately reproduced the precipitation depth, the autocorrelations seen in the original data, the observed dry-spell lengths, and the seasonality in precipitation. We present two versions of the hourly and daily SPGs: (i) a stationary version of the SPG that assumes that the statistics of the precipitation are time independent and (ii) a non-stationary version that captures the secular drift in precipitation statistics resulting from climate change. The latter was developed to be applicable to climate change impact studies, especially studies reliant on SPG projections of future precipitation. We highlight many of the pitfalls associated with the training of a non-stationary SPG on observations alone and offer an alternative method that replicates the secular drift in precipitation seen in a large-ensemble regional climate model. The SPG runs several orders of magnitude faster than a typical regional climate model and permits the generation of very large ensembles of realistic precipitation time series under many climate change scenarios. These ensembles will also contain many extreme events not seen in the historical record. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the direct and indirect impacts of extreme sea level (ESL) flooding on critical infrastructure. While methods to quantify the direct impacts of ESL flooding on coastal areas are well established, the indirect impacts that extend beyond the directly affected population are less well understood. This study assesses the vulnerability of electricity, road, telecommunication, water supply, and wastewater infrastructure to service disruption from coastal flooding in South Dunedin, New Zealand. We quantified the population affected by single and multiple service losses caused by 100-year average recurrence interval (ARI) ESL flooding across 0.1 m sea-level rise (SLR) increments up to 1.5 m. The study identified an ESL "tipping-point" at 0.6 m SLR, where direct loss of road access and electricity services is extensive, and causes indirect loss of telecommunication services. This also impacted the functionality of a key wastewater pumpstation servicing the wider region. As sea levels in the area are projected to rise 0.60 m in the next ~60–90 years, this information can inform assessments of potential adaptation investments in long-term infrastructure management plans in the face of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the light of climate change, the drive for zero carbon buildings is known as one response to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Within New Zealand, research on climate change mitigation and environmental impacts of buildings has received renewed attention. However, there has been no detailed investigation of zero carbon building practices. This paper undertakes an exploratory study through the use of semi-structured interviews with government representatives and construction industry experts to examine how the New Zealand construction industry plans and implements zero carbon buildings. The results show that New Zealand's construction industry is in the early stage of transiting to a net-zero carbon built environment. Key actions to date are focused on devising a way for the industry to develop and deliver zero carbon building projects. Central and local governments play a leading role in driving zero carbon initiatives. Leading construction firms intend to maximise the carbon reduction in building projects by developing a roadmap to achieve the carbon target by 2050 and rethinking the way of designing and constructing buildings. The research results provide an insight into the initial practices and policy implications for the uptake of zero carbon buildings in Aotearoa New Zealand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]