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BackgroundThe relationship between the viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 and clinical outcomes remains unclear.MethodsA convenience sample of 955 remnant nasopharyngeal swabs collected during routine care between 11/18/20 and 9/26/21 were analyzed using digital PCR and associated clinical data extracted from the medical record. 18 individuals had >1 sample within 30 days of onset of symptoms.ResultsPaired samples were an average of 6 [range: 0-13] days apart. Four individuals sampled twice on the same day had a median 0.52 log10 viral load difference between samples. Of the remaining, 12 individuals had a decrease in viral load over time, with an average decay of -0.23 log10/day.ConclusionsOur study found a similar rate of viral decay to others, but did not find associations between viral kinetics and clinical outcomes. Larger studies would be useful to support the use of this measurement as a surrogate endpoint for therapeutic studies.

Little is known about using noninvasive samples for diagnosing Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF). We investigated detection of CCHF virus in serum, saliva, and urine samples. Our results indicate that serum is the best sample type for CCHF diagnosis; saliva can be used for noninvasive sampling.

Understanding variant-specific differences in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral kinetics may explain differences in transmission efficiency and provide insights on pathogenesis and prevention. We evaluated SARS-CoV-2 kinetics from nasal swabs across multiple variants (Alpha, Delta, Epsilon, Gamma) in placebo recipients of the ACTIV-2/A5401 trial. Delta variant infection led to the highest maximum viral load and shortest time from symptom onset to viral load peak. There were no significant differences in time to viral clearance across the variants. Viral decline was biphasic with first- and second-phase decays having half-lives of 11 hours and 2.5 days, respectively, with differences among variants, especially in the second phase. These results suggest that while variant-specific differences in viral kinetics exist, post-peak viral load all variants appeared to be efficiently cleared by the host. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04518410.

To streamline standard virological assays, we developed a suite of nine fluorescent or bioluminescent replication competent human species C5 adenovirus reporter viruses that mimic their parental wild-type counterpart. These reporter viruses provide a rapid and quantitative readout of various aspects of viral infection and replication based on EGFP, mCherry, or NanoLuc measurement. Moreover, they permit real-time non-invasive measures of viral load, replication dynamics, and infection kinetics over the entire course of infection, allowing measurements that were not previously possible. This suite of replication competent reporter viruses increases the ease, speed, and adaptability of standard assays and has the potential to accelerate multiple areas of human adenovirus research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims: Bulevirtide is a first-in-class entry inhibitor antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis D. The viral kinetics during bulevirtide therapy and the effect of combining bulevirtide with pegylated-interferon (Peg-IFN) are unknown. Methods: We used mathematical modelling to analyze the viral kinetics in two French observational cohorts of 183 patients receiving bulevirtide with or without Peg-IFN for 48 weeks. Results: The efficacy of bulevirtide in blocking cell infection was estimated to 90.3%, whereas Peg-IFN blocked viral production with an efficacy of 92.4%, albeit with large inter-individual variabilities. The addition of Peg-IFN to bulevirtide was associated with a more rapid virological decline, with a rate of virological response (>2 log of decline or undetectability) at week 48 of 86.9% (95% prediction interval [PI] = [79.7–95.0]), compared with 56.1% (95% PI = [46.4–66.7]) with bulevirtide only. The model was also used to predict the probability to achieve a cure of viral infection, with a rate of 8.8% (95% PI = [3.5–13.2]) with bulevirtide compared with 18.8% (95% PI = [11.6–29.0]) with bulevirtide + Peg-IFN. Mathematical modelling suggests that after 144 weeks of treatment, the rates of viral cure could be 42.1% (95% PI = [33.3–52.6]) with bulevirtide and 66.7% (95% PI = [56.5–76.8]) with bulevirtide + Peg-IFN. Conclusions: In this analysis of real-world data, Peg-IFN strongly enhanced the kinetics of viral decline in patients treated with bulevirtide. Randomized clinical trials are warranted to assess the virological and clinical benefit of this combination, and to identify predictors of poor response to treatment. Impact and implications: Bulevirtide has been approved for chronic HDV infection by regulatory agencies in Europe based on its good safety profile and rapid virological response after treatment initiation, but the optimal duration of treatment and the chance to achieve a sustained virological response remain unknown. The results presented in this study have a high impact for clinicians and investigators as they provide important knowledge on the long-term virological benefits of a combination of Peg-IFN and bulevirtide in patients with CHD. Clinical trials are now warranted to confirm those predictions.

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Background: COVID-19 rebound is usually reported among patients experiencing concurrent symptomatic and viral rebound. But longitudinal viral RT-PCR results from early stage to rebound of COVID-19 was less characterized. Further, identifying the factors associated with viral rebound after nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (NMV/r) and molnupiravir may expand understanding of COVID-19 rebound. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed clinical data and sequential viral RT-PCR results from COVID-19 patients receiving oral antivirals between April and May, 2022. Viral rebound was defined by the degree of viral load increase (ΔCt ≥ 5 units). Results: A total of 58 and 27 COVID-19 patients taking NMV/r and molnupiravir, respectively, were enrolled. Patients receiving NMV/r were younger, had fewer risk factors for disease progression and faster viral clearance rate compared to those receiving molnupiravr (All P

Introduction: Oncolytic viruses (OVs) represent a novel therapeutic strategy in oncology due to their capability to selectively infect and replicate in cancer cells, triggering a direct and/or immune-induced tumor lysis. However, the mechanisms governing OV pharmacokinetics are still poorly understood. This work aims to develop a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model of the novel OV, V937, in non-tumor-bearing mice to get a quantitative understanding of its elimination and tissue uptake processes. Materials and methods: Model development was performed using data obtained from 60 mice. Viral levels were quantified from eight tissues after a single intravenous V937 dose. An external dataset was used for model validation. This test set included multiple-dose experiments with different routes of administration. V937 distribution in each organ was described using a physiological structure based on mouse-specific organ blood flows and volumes. Analyses were performed using the non-linear mixed-effects approach with NONMEM 7.4. Results: Viral levels showed a drop from 108 to 105 copies/µg RNA at day 1 in blood, reflected in a high estimate of total clearance (18.2 mL/h). A well-stirred model provided an adequate description for all organs except the muscle and heart, where a saturable uptake process improved data description. The highest numbers of viral copies were observed in the brain, lymph node, kidney, liver, lung, and spleen on the first day after injection. On the other hand, the maximum amount of viral copies in the heart, muscle, and pancreas occurred 3 days after administration. Conclusion: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first physiologically based pharmacokinetic model developed to characterize OV biodistribution, representing a relevant source of quantitative knowledge regarding the in vivo behavior of OVs. This model can be further expanded by adding a tumor compartment, where OVs could replicate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The relationship between the viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 and clinical outcomes remains unclear. Methods: A convenience sample of 955 remnant nasopharyngeal swabs collected during routine care between 11/18/20 and 9/26/21 were analyzed using digital PCR and associated clinical data extracted from the medical record. 18 individuals had >1 sample within 30 days of onset of symptoms. Results: Paired samples were an average of 6 [range: 0–13] days apart. Four individuals sampled twice on the same day had a median 0.52 log10 viral load difference between samples. Of the remaining, 12 individuals had a decrease in viral load over time, with an average decay of −0.23 log10/day. Conclusions: Our study found a similar rate of viral decay to others, but did not find associations between viral kinetics and clinical outcomes. Larger studies would be useful to support the use of this measurement as a surrogate endpoint for therapeutic studies.

Introduction: Oncolytic viruses (OVs) represent a novel therapeutic strategy in oncology due to their capability to selectively infect and replicate in cancer cells, triggering a direct and/or immune-induced tumor lysis. However, the mechanisms governing OV pharmacokinetics are still poorly understood. This work aims to develop a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model of the novel OV, V937, in non-tumor-bearing mice to get a quantitative understanding of its elimination and tissue uptake processes.Materials and methods: Model development was performed using data obtained from 60 mice. Viral levels were quantified from eight tissues after a single intravenous V937 dose. An external dataset was used for model validation. This test set included multiple-dose experiments with different routes of administration. V937 distribution in each organ was described using a physiological structure based on mouse-specific organ blood flows and volumes. Analyses were performed using the non-linear mixed-effects approach with NONMEM 7.4.Results: Viral levels showed a drop from 108 to 105 copies/µg RNA at day 1 in blood, reflected in a high estimate of total clearance (18.2 mL/h). A well-stirred model provided an adequate description for all organs except the muscle and heart, where a saturable uptake process improved data description. The highest numbers of viral copies were observed in the brain, lymph node, kidney, liver, lung, and spleen on the first day after injection. On the other hand, the maximum amount of viral copies in the heart, muscle, and pancreas occurred 3 days after administration.Conclusion: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first physiologically based pharmacokinetic model developed to characterize OV biodistribution, representing a relevant source of quantitative knowledge regarding the in vivo behavior of OVs. This model can be further expanded by adding a tumor compartment, where OVs could replicate.

COVID-19 rebound is usually reported among patients experiencing concurrent symptomatic and viral rebound. But longitudinal viral RT-PCR results from early stage to rebound of COVID-19 was less characterized. Further, identifying the factors associated with viral rebound after nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (NMV/r) and molnupiravir may expand understanding of COVID-19 rebound. We retrospectively analyzed clinical data and sequential viral RT-PCR results from COVID-19 patients receiving oral antivirals between April and May, 2022. Viral rebound was defined by the degree of viral load increase (ΔCt ≥ 5 units). A total of 58 and 27 COVID-19 patients taking NMV/r and molnupiravir, respectively, were enrolled. Patients receiving NMV/r were younger, had fewer risk factors for disease progression and faster viral clearance rate compared to those receiving molnupiravr (All P < 0.05). The overall proportion of viral rebound (n = 11) was 12.9%, which was more common among patients receiving NMV/r (10 [17.2%] vs. 1 [3.7%], P = 0.16). Of them, 5 patients experienced symptomatic rebound, suggesting the proportion of COVID-19 rebound was 5.9%. The median interval to viral rebound was 5.0 (interquartile range, 2.0–8.0) days after completion of antivirals. Initial lymphopenia (<0.8 × 109/L) was associated with viral rebound among overall population (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 5.34; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33–21.71), and remained significant (aOR, 4.50; 95% CI, 1.05–19.25) even when patients receiving NMV/r were considered. Our data suggest viral rebound after oral antivirals may be more commonly observed among lymphopenic individuals in the context of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 variant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) is the leading cause of congenital viral infection, leading to a variety of symptoms in the unborn child that range from asymptomatic to death in utero. Our objective was to better understand the mechanisms of placental infection by HCMV clinical strains, particularly during the first trimester of pregnancy. We thus characterized and compared the replication kinetics of various HCMV clinical strains and laboratory strains by measuring viral loads in an ex vivo model of first trimester villi and decidua, and used NGS and PCA analysis to analyze the genes involved in cell tropism and virulence factors. We observed that first trimester villi and decidua are similarly permissive to laboratory and symptomatic strains, and that asymptomatic strains poorly replicate in decidua tissue. PCA analysis allowed us to segregate our clinical strains based on their clinical characteristics, suggesting a link between gene mutations and symptoms. All these results bring forth elements that can help better understand the mechanisms that induce the appearance of symptoms or in the congenitally infected newborn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic brought new discoveries regarding arboviruses, especially flaviviruses, as ZIKV was described as sexually and vertically transmitted. The latter shows severe consequences for the embryo/fetus, such as congenital microcephaly and deficiency of the neural system, currently known as Congenital ZIKV Syndrome (CZS). To better understand ZIKV dynamics in trophoblastic cells present in the first trimester of pregnancy (BeWo, HTR-8, and control cell HuH-7), an experiment of viral kinetics was performed for African MR766 low passage and Asian-Brazilian IEC ZIKV lineages. The results were described independently and demonstrated that the three placental cells lines are permissive and susceptible to ZIKV. We noticed cytopathic effects that are typical in in vitro viral infection in BeWo and HTR-8. Regarding kinetics, MR766lp showed peaks of viral loads in 24 and 48 hpi for all cell types tested, as well as marked cells death after peak production. On the other hand, the HTR-8 lineage inoculated with ZIKV-IEC exhibited increased viral production in 144 hpi, with a peak between 24 and 96 hpi. Furthermore, IEC had peak variations of viral production for BeWo in 144 hpi. Considering such in vitro results, the hypothesis that maternal fetal transmission is probably a way of virus transmission between the mother and the embryo/fetus is maintained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) bronchiolitis is the leading cause of hospitalization in infants. The role of RSV load in disease severity is still debated. We present the interim results of a prospective monocentric study enrolling previously healthy infants hospitalized for RSV bronchiolitis, collecting nasopharyngeal aspirates every 48 h from admission to discharge, and evaluating RSV load dynamics in relation to clinical outcome measures of bronchiolitis severity, including: need, type and duration of oxygen therapy, length of hospitalization, and the bronchiolitis clinical score calculated at admission. The results showed that the highest viral replication occurs within the first 48 hours after admission, with a significant decrease at subsequent time points (p < 0.0001). Moreover, higher RSV-RNA values were associated with the need for oxygen therapy (p = 0.03), particularly high-flow nasal cannula type (p = 0.04), and longer duration of respiratory support (p = 0.04). Finally, higher RSV load values were correlated with lower white blood cells, especially lymphocyte counts and C-reactive protein levels (p = 0.03, p = 0.04, and p = 0.01, respectively), as well as with patients of a younger age (p = 0.02). These data suggest that RSV may actively contribute to the clinical severity of bronchiolitis, together with other potential non-viral factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Red sea bream iridovirus (RSIV) has been reported to be susceptible to various marine fish species in Asian countries such as South Korea, and it causes significant economic losses due to massive mortalities in rock bream (Oplegnathus fasciatus) in particular. However, studies on the impact of the virus shed from RSIV-infected rock bream on other fish species are limited. Here, we investigated the dynamics of the virus by simulating the natural conditions of RSIV infection in rock bream and examining its release into seawater and the risk of horizontal transmission through cohabitation with other fish species. Our data demonstrated that the virus shed from RSIV-infected rock bream caused high mortality rates in surrounding fish species through horizontal transmission. Our findings suggest the potential for RSIV-infected rock bream in farms to spread the disease to neighboring farms. Additionally, our results demonstrated a high correlation between RSIV load and viral shedding ratio in rock breams, as well as between RSIV load and histopathological infection grades. Red sea bream iridovirus (RSIV) causes significant economic losses in aquaculture. Here, we analyzed the pathogenicity, viral shedding, and transmission dynamics of RSIV in rock bream (Oplegnathus fasciatus) by employing immersion infection and cohabitation challenge models. Rock bream challenged by immersion exposure exhibited 100% mortality within 35 days post RSIV exposure, indicating that the viral shedding in seawater peaked after mortality. At 25 °C, a positive correlation between the viral loads within infected rock bream and virus shedding into the seawater was observed. Specific RSIV lesions were observed in the spleen and kidney of the infected rock bream, and the viral load in the spleen had the highest correlation with the histopathological grade. A cohabitation challenge mimicking the natural transmission conditions was performed to assess the virus transmission and determine the pathogenicity and viral load. The RSIV-infected rock breams (donors) were cohabited with uninfected rock bream, red sea bream (Pagrus major), and flathead grey mullet (Mugil cephalus) (recipients) at both 25 °C and 15 °C. In the cohabitation challenge group maintained at 15 °C, no mortality was observed across all experimental groups. However, RSIV was detected in both seawater and the recipient fish. Our results provide preliminary data for further epidemiological analyses and aid in the development of preventive measures and management of RSIVD in aquaculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims: Prophylaxis with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NUCs) and hepatitis B immunoglobulin (HBIG) has decreased the rate of HBV recurrence after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT), but the duration of this prophylaxis remains debated. Our aim was to investigate the recurrence of both intrahepatic and serum HBV markers after OLT in patients receiving long-term NUC and HBIG prophylaxis. Methods: A total of 31 HBV-positive patients benefiting from OLT were prospectively enrolled in five French centres between 2012 and 2015. Tissue samples from the native liver, liver reperfusion biopsy, and 12-month post-OLT (M12) biopsy were collected. Intrahepatic HBV markers were quantified using Droplet Digital PCR. Serum hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) and HBsAg were quantified using the Lumipulse platform. Results: Among the 31 patients, 26 were HBeAg negative and 28 had undetectable serum HBV DNA at OLT. All patients received HBIG and NUC after OLT, and serum HBV DNA was undetectable at M12. Of the 27 available native livers, 26 had detectable total HBV DNA (median, 0.045 copies/cell), 21 were positive for cccDNA (0.001 copies/cell), and 19 were positive for 3.5-kb HBV RNA (0.0004 copies/cell). Among the 14 sequential reperfusion and M12 biopsies, seven were positive for HBV markers on the reperfusion sampling, and six of them were also positive at M12. Of the 27 patients with available serum samples at M12, eight were positive for HBcrAg and five were positive for HBsAg by ultrasensitive quantification, although they were negative by conventional techniques. Overall, among the 17 patients having a matched biopsy and serum sample at M12, only one had undetectable HBV markers in both the liver and serum. Conclusions: Our results demonstrate a very early detection of viral genome in the graft and intrahepatic viral recurrence despite NUC and HBIG prophylaxis. Clinical Trials Registration: This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02602847). Impact and Implications: In this work, we show that, despite the recommended prophylaxis based on NUC and HBIG, HBV can infect the new liver very rapidly after transplantation. Twelve months after transplantation, the majority of patients had at least one HBV marker detected in either serum or the liver. Therefore, our results demonstrate early intrahepatic viral recurrence despite NUC and HBIG therapy and underline the importance of an optimal patient compliance to the antiviral prophylaxis to prevent viral rebound.

Abstract Pattern recognition receptors participate in the innate immune response. Among PRRs, the cGAS/STING pathway is known to detect cytosolic DNA and cyclic dinucleotides, but it’s also important in RNA virus infection. We aimed to evaluate the gene expression of some important genes of cGAS/STING pathway and to correlate this expression with Zika virus kinetics in mice microglia and neurons. Cells were infected by MOI = 1.0. Indirect immunofluorescence, plaque titration of supernatant, extraction, and quantification of total intracellular RNA, RT-qPCR and Western blotting were performed. Plaque titration profile in microglia and neurons was similar, including higher titers of plaque forming units at 24, 48, 72 and 96 hpi, respectively. ZIKV kinetics evaluated by RT-qPCR was similar in both cells, with highest viral titers at 48, 72, 24 and 96 hpi, respectively. Expression profile of cGAS, STING, INF-α and INF-β was quite different between the cells, including gene suppression, as observed for cGAS in neurons. Our results showed a differentiated expression profile of cGAS/STING pathway genes in mice microglia and neurons, which can be explained by the different mechanisms that ZIKV uses to bypass the immune response of these cells. Furthermore, each cell type responds differently to combat the viral infection.

Background: The combined impact of immunity and SARS-CoV-2 variants on viral kinetics during infections has been unclear. Methods: We characterized 1,280 infections from the National Basketball Association occupational health cohort identified between June 2020 and January 2022 using serial RT-qPCR testing. Logistic regression and semi-mechanistic viral RNA kinetics models were used to quantify the effect of age, variant, symptom status, infection history, vaccination status and antibody titer to the founder SARS-CoV-2 strain on the duration of potential infectiousness and overall viral kinetics. The frequency of viral rebounds was quantified under multiple cycle threshold (Ct) value-based definitions. Results: Among individuals detected partway through their infection, 51.0% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 48.3–53.6%) remained potentially infectious (Ct

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) is the leading cause of congenital viral infection, leading to a variety of symptoms in the unborn child that range from asymptomatic to death in utero. Our objective was to better understand the mechanisms of placental infection by HCMV clinical strains, particularly during the first trimester of pregnancy. We thus characterized and compared the replication kinetics of various HCMV clinical strains and laboratory strains by measuring viral loads in an ex vivo model of first trimester villi and decidua, and used NGS and PCA analysis to analyze the genes involved in cell tropism and virulence factors. We observed that first trimester villi and decidua are similarly permissive to laboratory and symptomatic strains, and that asymptomatic strains poorly replicate in decidua tissue. PCA analysis allowed us to segregate our clinical strains based on their clinical characteristics, suggesting a link between gene mutations and symptoms. All these results bring forth elements that can help better understand the mechanisms that induce the appearance of symptoms or in the congenitally infected newborn.

The Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic brought new discoveries regarding arboviruses, especially flaviviruses, as ZIKV was described as sexually and vertically transmitted. The latter shows severe consequences for the embryo/fetus, such as congenital microcephaly and deficiency of the neural system, currently known as Congenital ZIKV Syndrome (CZS). To better understand ZIKV dynamics in trophoblastic cells present in the first trimester of pregnancy (BeWo, HTR-8, and control cell HuH-7), an experiment of viral kinetics was performed for African MR766 low passage and Asian-Brazilian IEC ZIKV lineages. The results were described independently and demonstrated that the three placental cells lines are permissive and susceptible to ZIKV. We noticed cytopathic effects that are typical in in vitro viral infection in BeWo and HTR-8. Regarding kinetics, MR766lp showed peaks of viral loads in 24 and 48 hpi for all cell types tested, as well as marked cells death after peak production. On the other hand, the HTR-8 lineage inoculated with ZIKV-IEC exhibited increased viral production in 144 hpi, with a peak between 24 and 96 hpi. Furthermore, IEC had peak variations of viral production for BeWo in 144 hpi. Considering such in vitro results, the hypothesis that maternal fetal transmission is probably a way of virus transmission between the mother and the embryo/fetus is maintained.

Simple Summary: Red sea bream iridoviral disease (RSIVD) generates serious economic losses by causing mass mortality events of rock bream during the season with high water temperature in the Republic of Korea and other Asian countries. However, very few studies have investigated RSIV kinetics in rock bream under various rearing water temperatures. In this paper, we investigated the viral load shedding of RSIV into seawater after artificially infecting rock bream (Oplegnathus fasciatus) with the virus. Overall, our data suggest that the viral load shedding of RSIV into seawater varies depending on water temperature and virus inoculation concentration. Our results reveal the potential of non-invasive virus detection approaches, such as the utilization of environmental DNA in fish farms. In addition, we showed that the quantitative analysis of seawater viruses can indirectly improve our understanding of disease progression in fish, potentially contributing to enhanced disease control. Red sea bream iridoviral disease (RSIVD) causes serious economic losses in the aquaculture industry. In this paper, we evaluated RSIV kinetics in rock bream under various rearing water temperatures and different RSIV inoculation concentrations. High viral copy numbers (approximately 103.7–106.7 RSIV genome copies/L/g) were observed during the period of active fish mortality after RSIV infection at all concentrations in the tanks (25 °C and 20 °C). In the group injected with 104 RSIV genome copies/fish, RSIV was not detected at 21–30 days post-infection (dpi) in the rearing seawater. In rock bream infected at 15 °C and subjected to increasing water temperature (1 °C/d until 25 °C) 3 days later, the virus replication rate and number of viral copies shed into the rearing seawater increased. With the decrease in temperature (1 °C/d) from 25 to 15 °C after the infection, the virus replicated rapidly and was released at high loads on the initial 3–5 dpi, whereas the number of viral copies in the fish and seawater decreased after 14 dpi. These results indicate that the number of viral copies shed into the rearing seawater varies depending on the RSIV infection level in rock bream. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) establishes a lifelong latent infection in healthy humans, kept under immune control by cytotoxic T cells (CTLs). Following paediatric haematopoetic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), a loss of immune surveillance leads to opportunistic outgrowth of EBV-infected cells, resulting in EBV reactivation, which can ultimately progress to post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorder (PTLD). The aims of this study were to identify risk factors for EBV reactivation in children in the first 100 days post-HSCT and to assess the suitability of a previously reported mathematical model to mechanistically model EBV reactivation kinetics in this cohort. Retrospective electronic data were collected from 56 children who underwent HSCT at Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH) between 2005 and 2016. Using EBV viral load (VL) measurements from weekly quantitative PCR (qPCR) monitoring post-HSCT, a multivariable Cox proportional hazards (Cox-PH) model was developed to assess time to first EBV reactivation event in the first 100 days post-HSCT. Sensitivity analysis of a previously reported mathematical model was performed to identify key parameters affecting EBV VL. Cox-PH modelling revealed EBV seropositivity of the HSCT recipient and administration of anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG) pre-HSCT to be significantly associated with an increased risk of EBV reactivation in the first 100 days post-HSCT (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 2.32, P = 0.02; AHR = 2.55, P = 0.04). Five parameters were found to affect EBV VL in sensitivity analysis of the previously reported mathematical model. In conclusion, we have assessed the effect of multiple covariates on EBV reactivation in the first 100 days post-HSCT in children and have identified key parameters in a previously reported mechanistic mathematical model that affect EBV VL. Future work will aim to fit this model to patient EBV VLs, develop the model to account for interindividual variability and model the effect of clinically relevant covariates such as rituximab therapy and ATG on EBV VL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical models, some of which incorporate both intracellular and extracellular hepatitis C viral kinetics, have been advanced in recent years for studying HCV–host dynamics, antivirals mode of action, and their efficacy. The standard ordinary differential equation (ODE) hepatitis C virus (HCV) kinetic model keeps track of uninfected cells, infected cells, and free virus. In multiscale models, a fourth partial differential equation (PDE) accounts for the intracellular viral RNA (vRNA) kinetics in an infected cell. The PDE multiscale model is substantially more difficult to solve compared to the standard ODE model, with governing differential equations that are stiff. In previous contributions, we developed and implemented stable and efficient numerical methods for the multiscale model for both the solution of the model equations and parameter estimation. In this contribution, we perform sensitivity analysis on model parameters to gain insight into important properties and to ensure our numerical methods can be safely used for HCV viral dynamic simulations. Furthermore, we generate in-silico patients using the multiscale models to perform machine learning from the data, which enables us to remove HCV measurements on certain days and still be able to estimate meaningful observations with a sufficiently small error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To assess the antibody and viral kinetics in asymptomatic/mild confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections compared to more severe patients. Material and methods: Retrospective analysis of data obtained from adult patients with a confirmed SARS-CoV2 infection having at least one SARS-CoV-2 pair of specific IgM/IgG tests, admitted in The University Hospital of Infectious Diseases Cluj-Napoca, Romania (28 February to 31 August 2020). The database also included: demographic, clinical, chest X-ray and/or CT scan results, RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2, and dexamethasone treatment. A total of 469 patients were evaluated as “asymptomatic/mild” and “moderate/severe/critical” cases. Results: The median time since confirmation to SARS-CoV-2 PCR negativity was 15 days [95% CI: 13–18] in asymptomatic/mild cases and 17 days [95% CI: 16–21] in moderate/severe ones. The median time to seroconversion for both IgM and IgG was 13 days [95% CI: 13–14] in asymptomatic/mild cases and 11 days [95% CI: 10–13] in moderate/severe ones. For both antibody types, the highest reactivity was significantly associated with more severe presentation (IgM: OR = 10.30, IgG: OR = 7.97). Conclusion: Asymptomatic/mild COVID-19 cases had a faster RT-PCR negativity rate compared to moderate/severe/critical patients. IgG and IgM dynamics were almost simultaneous, more robust for IgG in more severe cases, and at one month after confirmation, almost all patients had detectable antibody titers.

BackgroundNucleos(t)ide reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI)-sparing regimens may potentially minimize antiretroviral (ART) toxicities, but demonstrate mixed efficacy and toxicity results. The impact of an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) and protease inhibitor (PI) regimen on HIV viral dynamics and T cell kinetics remains underdescribed.ObjectiveTo compare the effect of raltegravir + ritonavir boosted lopinavir (RAL + LPV/r) to efavirenz/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (EFV/TDF/FTC) on HIV kinetics and T cell dynamics.MethodsFifty participants naïve to ART underwent HIV viral kinetic sampling evaluated using biexponential mixed effects modeling. A subset of 28 subjects (with complete viral suppression) underwent flow cytometry and evaluation of soluble markers of inflammation at weeks 0, 4, and 48 of ART.ResultsRAL + LPV/r compared to EFV/TDF/FTC resulted in a prolonged first phase viral decay rate (18 vs. 13 days p

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) establishes a lifelong latent infection in healthy humans, kept under immune control by cytotoxic T cells (CTLs). Following paediatric haematopoetic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), a loss of immune surveillance leads to opportunistic outgrowth of EBV-infected cells, resulting in EBV reactivation, which can ultimately progress to post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorder (PTLD). The aims of this study were to identify risk factors for EBV reactivation in children in the first 100 days post-HSCT and to assess the suitability of a previously reported mathematical model to mechanistically model EBV reactivation kinetics in this cohort. Retrospective electronic data were collected from 56 children who underwent HSCT at Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH) between 2005 and 2016. Using EBV viral load (VL) measurements from weekly quantitative PCR (qPCR) monitoring post-HSCT, a multivariable Cox proportional hazards (Cox-PH) model was developed to assess time to first EBV reactivation event in the first 100 days post-HSCT. Sensitivity analysis of a previously reported mathematical model was performed to identify key parameters affecting EBV VL. Cox-PH modelling revealed EBV seropositivity of the HSCT recipient and administration of anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG) pre-HSCT to be significantly associated with an increased risk of EBV reactivation in the first 100 days post-HSCT (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 2.32, P = 0.02; AHR = 2.55, P = 0.04). Five parameters were found to affect EBV VL in sensitivity analysis of the previously reported mathematical model. In conclusion, we have assessed the effect of multiple covariates on EBV reactivation in the first 100 days post-HSCT in children and have identified key parameters in a previously reported mechanistic mathematical model that affect EBV VL. Future work will aim to fit this model to patient EBV VLs, develop the model to account for interindividual variability and model the effect of clinically relevant covariates such as rituximab therapy and ATG on EBV VL.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) bronchiolitis is the leading cause of hospitalization in infants. The role of RSV load in disease severity is still debated. We present the interim results of a prospective monocentric study enrolling previously healthy infants hospitalized for RSV bronchiolitis, collecting nasopharyngeal aspirates every 48 h from admission to discharge, and evaluating RSV load dynamics in relation to clinical outcome measures of bronchiolitis severity, including: need, type and duration of oxygen therapy, length of hospitalization, and the bronchiolitis clinical score calculated at admission. The results showed that the highest viral replication occurs within the first 48 hours after admission, with a significant decrease at subsequent time points (p < 0.0001). Moreover, higher RSV-RNA values were associated with the need for oxygen therapy (p = 0.03), particularly high-flow nasal cannula type (p = 0.04), and longer duration of respiratory support (p = 0.04). Finally, higher RSV load values were correlated with lower white blood cells, especially lymphocyte counts and C-reactive protein levels (p = 0.03, p = 0.04, and p = 0.01, respectively), as well as with patients of a younger age (p = 0.02). These data suggest that RSV may actively contribute to the clinical severity of bronchiolitis, together with other potential non-viral factors.

Red sea bream iridovirus (RSIV) causes significant economic losses in aquaculture. Here, we analyzed the pathogenicity, viral shedding, and transmission dynamics of RSIV in rock bream (Oplegnathus fasciatus) by employing immersion infection and cohabitation challenge models. Rock bream challenged by immersion exposure exhibited 100% mortality within 35 days post RSIV exposure, indicating that the viral shedding in seawater peaked after mortality. At 25 °C, a positive correlation between the viral loads within infected rock bream and virus shedding into the seawater was observed. Specific RSIV lesions were observed in the spleen and kidney of the infected rock bream, and the viral load in the spleen had the highest correlation with the histopathological grade. A cohabitation challenge mimicking the natural transmission conditions was performed to assess the virus transmission and determine the pathogenicity and viral load. The RSIV-infected rock breams (donors) were cohabited with uninfected rock bream, red sea bream (Pagrus major), and flathead grey mullet (Mugil cephalus) (recipients) at both 25 °C and 15 °C. In the cohabitation challenge group maintained at 15 °C, no mortality was observed across all experimental groups. However, RSIV was detected in both seawater and the recipient fish. Our results provide preliminary data for further epidemiological analyses and aid in the development of preventive measures and management of RSIVD in aquaculture.

The within-host viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and how they relate to a person's infectiousness are not well understood. This limits our ability to quantify the impact of interventions on viral transmission. Here, we develop viral dynamic models of SARS-CoV-2 infection and fit them to data to estimate key withinhost parameters such as the infected cell half-life and the withinhost reproductive number. We then develop a model linking viral load (VL) to infectiousness and show a person's infectiousness increases sublinearly with VL and that the logarithm of the VL in the upper respiratory tract is a better surrogate of infectiousness than the VL itself. Using data on VL and the predicted infectiousness, we further incorporated data on antigen and RT-PCR tests and compared their usefulness in detecting infection and preventing transmission. We found that RT-PCR tests perform better than antigen tests assuming equal testing frequency; however, more frequent antigen testing may perform equally well with RT-PCR tests at a lower cost but with many more false-negative tests. Overall, our models provide a quantitative framework for inferring the impact of therapeutics and vaccines that lower VL on the infectiousness of individuals and for evaluating rapid testing strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little is known about using noninvasive samples for diagnosing Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF). We investigated detection of CCHF virus in serum, saliva, and urine samples. Our results indicate that serum is the best sample type for CCHF diagnosis; saliva can be used for noninvasive sampling.

Aims: We propose the use of in silico mathematical models to provide insights that optimize therapeutic interventions designed to effectively treat respiratory infection during a pandemic. A modelling and simulation framework is provided using SARS‐CoV‐2 as an example, considering applications for both treatment and prophylaxis. Methods: A target cell‐limited model was used to quantify the viral infection dynamics of SARS‐CoV‐2 in a pooled population of 105 infected patients. Parameter estimates from the resulting model were used to simulate and compare the impact of various interventions against meaningful viral load endpoints. Results: Robust parameter estimates were obtained for the basic reproduction number, viral release rate and infected‐cell mortality from the infection model. These estimates were informed by the largest dataset currently available for SARS‐CoV‐2 viral time course. The utility of this model was demonstrated using simulations, which hypothetically introduced inhibitory or stimulatory drug mechanisms at various target sites within the viral life‐cycle. We show that early intervention is crucial to achieving therapeutic benefit when monotherapy is administered. In contrast, combination regimens of two or three drugs may provide improved outcomes if treatment is initiated late. The latter is relevant to SARS‐CoV‐2, where the period between infection and symptom onset is relatively long. Conclusions: The use of in silico models can provide viral load predictions that can rationalize therapeutic strategies against an emerging viral pathogen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a hybrid partial differential equation–agent-based (PDE–ABM) model to describe the spatio-temporal viral dynamics in a cell population. The virus concentration is considered as a continuous variable and virus movement is modelled by diffusion, while changes in the states of cells (i.e. healthy, infected, dead) are represented by a stochastic ABM. The two subsystems are intertwined: the probability of an agent getting infected in the ABM depends on the local viral concentration, and the source term of viral production in the PDE is determined by the cells that are infected. We develop a computational tool that allows us to study the hybrid system and the generated spatial patterns in detail. We systematically compare the outputs with a classical ODE system of viral dynamics, and find that the ODE model is a good approximation only if the diffusion coefficient is large. We demonstrate that the model is able to predict SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics, and replicate the output of in vitro experiments. Applying the model to influenza as well, we can gain insight into why the outcomes of these two infections are different.

While the liver, specifically hepatocytes, are widely accepted as the main source of hepatitis C virus (HCV) production, the role of the liver/hepatocytes in clearance of circulating HCV remains unknown. Frequent HCV kinetic data were recorded and mathematically modeled from five liver transplant patients throughout the anhepatic (absence of liver) phase and for 4 hr post-reperfusion. During the anhepatic phase, HCV remained at pre-anhepatic levels (n = 3) or declined (n = 2) with t1/2~1 hr. Immediately post-reperfusion, virus declined in a biphasic manner in four patients consisting of a rapid decline (t1/2 = 5 min) followed by a slower decline (t1/2 = 67 min). Consistent with the majority of patients in the anhepatic phase, when we monitored HCV clearance at 37°C from culture medium in the absence/presence of chronically infected hepatoma cells that were inhibited from secreting HCV, the HCV t1/2 in cell culture was longer in the absence of chronically HCV-infected cells. The results suggest that the liver plays a major role in the clearance of circulating HCV and that hepatocytes may be involved.

ABSTRACT To determine the relationship between viral kinetics and severity of disease in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, we investigated the viral kinetics and compared the viral loads of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2), stratified by symptoms and severity. We determined the viral kinetics of 100 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 at Chosun University Hospital between February 2020 and May 2021 and analyzed the differences between asymptomatic, symptomatic, and nonsurvivor patients and between patients who died and those who survived. Clinical samples, comprising respiratory specimens (sputum samples and nasopharynx and oropharynx swab samples), were obtained at different time points of hospitalization, at 1, 3 to 5, 7, 10, 14, and 30 days. SARS-CoV-2 was detected using real-time reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR). All three groups, asymptomatic, symptomatic, and deceased patients, had higher numbers of viral copies at symptom onset, and the asymptomatic group had lower numbers of viral copies than the symptomatic or nonsurvivor group. Viral RNA release was detected until 30 days after symptom onset. The virus cleared up earlier in asymptomatic patients than in symptomatic and nonsurvivor patients, and it cleared up earlier in mildly affected patients than in severely affected patients. The cycle threshold values tended to be significantly lower in the group receiving steroids than in the nonsteroid group, even in the low-risk group with a pneumonia severity index of less than 90. The viral loads in patients with COVID-19 were significantly different according to disease severity and steroid use. IMPORTANCE In our study, we analyzed the viral kinetics of COVID-19 patients. Our study reveals differences in viral shedding according to the severity of disease in COVID-19 patients. Viral shedding had a longer duration in severely affected patients, and the cyclic threshold values were lower in the group receiving steroids. This study is expected to be helpful in analyzing the trend of the disease course according to steroid use and severity of SARS-CoV-2 disease.

V937 is an investigational novel oncolytic non-genetically modified Kuykendall strain of Coxsackievirus A21 which is in clinical development for the treatment of advanced solid tumor malignancies. V937 infects and lyses tumor cells expressing the intercellular adhesion molecule I (ICAM-I) receptor. We integrated in vitro and in vivo data from six different preclinical studies to build a mechanistic model that allowed a quantitative analysis of the biological processes of V937 viral kinetics and dynamics, viral distribution to tumor, and anti-tumor response elicited by V937 in human xenograft models in immunodeficient mice following intratumoral and intravenous administration. Estimates of viral infection and replication which were calculated from in vitro experiments were successfully used to describe the tumor response in vivo under various experimental conditions. Despite the predicted high clearance rate of V937 in systemic circulation (t1/2 = 4.3 min), high viral replication was observed in immunodeficient mice which resulted in tumor shrinkage with both intratumoral and intravenous administration. The described framework represents a step towards the quantitative characterization of viral distribution, replication, and oncolytic effect of a novel oncolytic virus following intratumoral and intravenous administrations in the absence of an immune response. This model may further be expanded to integrate the role of the immune system on viral and tumor dynamics to support the clinical development of oncolytic viruses.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) kinetics remain understudied, including the impact of remdesivir. In hospitalized individuals, peak sputum viral load occurred in week 2 of symptoms, whereas viremia peaked within 1 week of symptom-onset, suggesting early systemic seeding of SARS-CoV-2. Remdesivir treatment was associated with faster viral decay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

V937 is an investigational novel oncolytic non-genetically modified Kuykendall strain of Coxsackievirus A21 which is in clinical development for the treatment of advanced solid tumor malignancies. V937 infects and lyses tumor cells expressing the intercellular adhesion molecule I (ICAM-I) receptor. We integrated in vitro and in vivo data from six different preclinical studies to build a mechanistic model that allowed a quantitative analysis of the biological processes of V937 viral kinetics and dynamics, viral distribution to tumor, and anti-tumor response elicited by V937 in human xenograft models in immunodeficient mice following intratumoral and intravenous administration. Estimates of viral infection and replication which were calculated from in vitro experiments were successfully used to describe the tumor response in vivo under various experimental conditions. Despite the predicted high clearance rate of V937 in systemic circulation (t1/2 = 4.3 min), high viral replication was observed in immunodeficient mice which resulted in tumor shrinkage with both intratumoral and intravenous administration. The described framework represents a step towards the quantitative characterization of viral distribution, replication, and oncolytic effect of a novel oncolytic virus following intratumoral and intravenous administrations in the absence of an immune response. This model may further be expanded to integrate the role of the immune system on viral and tumor dynamics to support the clinical development of oncolytic viruses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whereas the mode of action of lamivudine (LAM) against hepatitis B virus (HBV) is well established, the inhibition mechanism(s) of interferon alpha (IFNa) is less completely defined. To advance our understanding, we mathematically modeled HBV kinetics during 14-day pegylated IFN-a-2a (pegIFN), LAM, or pegIFNplus-LAM (pegIFN1LAM) treatment of 39 chronically HBV-infected humanized uPA/SCID chimeric mice. Serum HBV DNA and intracellular HBV DNA were measured frequently. We developed a multicompartmental mathematical model and simultaneously fit it to the serum and intracellular HBV DNA data. Unexpectedly, even in the absence of an adaptive immune response, a biphasic decline in serum HBV DNA and intracellular HBV DNA was observed in response to all treatments. Kinetic analysis and modeling indicate that the first phase represents inhibition of intracellular HBV DNA synthesis and secretion, which was similar under all treatments with an overall mean efficacy of 98%. In contrast, there were distinct differences in HBV decline during the second phase, which was accounted for in the model by a time-dependent inhibition of intracellular HBV DNA synthesis, with the steepest decline observed during pegIFN1LAM treatment (1.28/day) and the slowest (0.1/day) during pegIFN monotherapy. Reminiscent of observations in patients treated with pegIFN and/or LAM, a biphasic HBV decline was observed in treated humanized mice in the absence of an adaptive immune response. Interestingly, combination treatment did not increase the initial inhibition of HBV production but rather enhanced second-phase decline, providing insight into the dynamics of HBV treatment response and the mode of action of IFN-a against HBV. IMPORTANCE Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a global health care problem, as we lack sufficient curative treatment options. Elucidating the dynamics of HBV infection and treatment response at the molecular level could facilitate the development of novel, more effective HBV antivirals. Currently, the only well-established small animal HBV infection model available is the chimeric uPA/SCID mice with humanized livers; however, the HBV inhibition kinetics under pegylated IFNa-2a (pegIFN) in this model system have not been determined in sufficient detail. In this study, viral kinetics in 39 humanized mice treated with pegIFN and/or lamivudine were monitored and analyzed using a mathematical modeling approach. We found that the main mode of action of IFN-a is blocking HBV DNA synthesis and that the majority of synthesized HBV DNA is secreted. Our study provides novel insights into HBV DNA dynamics within infected human hepatocytes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• SARS-CoV2 viral clearance is faster in asymptomatic and mild patients. • Almost all patients developed IgM and IgG antibodies in 28 days. • Higher IgM/IgG reactivity was associated with increased severity. • In recovered COVID-19 patients, a simplified vaccine schedule might be implemented. To assess the antibody and viral kinetics in asymptomatic/mild confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections compared to more severe patients. Retrospective analysis of data obtained from adult patients with a confirmed SARS-CoV2 infection having at least one SARS-CoV-2 pair of specific IgM/IgG tests, admitted in The University Hospital of Infectious Diseases Cluj-Napoca, Romania (28 February to 31 August 2020). The database also included: demographic, clinical, chest X-ray and/or CT scan results, RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2, and dexamethasone treatment. A total of 469 patients were evaluated as "asymptomatic/mild" and "moderate/severe/critical" cases. The median time since confirmation to SARS-CoV-2 PCR negativity was 15 days [95% CI: 13–18] in asymptomatic/mild cases and 17 days [95% CI: 16–21] in moderate/severe ones. The median time to seroconversion for both IgM and IgG was 13 days [95% CI: 13–14] in asymptomatic/mild cases and 11 days [95% CI: 10–13] in moderate/severe ones. For both antibody types, the highest reactivity was significantly associated with more severe presentation (IgM: OR = 10.30, IgG: OR = 7.97). Asymptomatic/mild COVID-19 cases had a faster RT-PCR negativity rate compared to moderate/severe/critical patients. IgG and IgM dynamics were almost simultaneous, more robust for IgG in more severe cases, and at one month after confirmation, almost all patients had detectable antibody titers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From a total of 71 laboratory-confirmed cases, three presymptomatic patients and 10 patients with entirely asymptomatic infections were identified. In two of the three incubation period patients, the viral titer in the presymptomatic period was very high (Ct value 35 within 14 days after diagnosis. Patients who have COVID-19 may already be infectious before there are symptoms, and 14 days of isolation after diagnosis may be sufficient in entirely asymptomatic cases.

Red sea bream iridoviral disease (RSIVD) causes serious economic losses in the aquaculture industry. In this paper, we evaluated RSIV kinetics in rock bream under various rearing water temperatures and different RSIV inoculation concentrations. High viral copy numbers (approximately 103.7–106.7 RSIV genome copies/L/g) were observed during the period of active fish mortality after RSIV infection at all concentrations in the tanks (25 °C and 20 °C). In the group injected with 104 RSIV genome copies/fish, RSIV was not detected at 21–30 days post-infection (dpi) in the rearing seawater. In rock bream infected at 15 °C and subjected to increasing water temperature (1 °C/d until 25 °C) 3 days later, the virus replication rate and number of viral copies shed into the rearing seawater increased. With the decrease in temperature (1 °C/d) from 25 to 15 °C after the infection, the virus replicated rapidly and was released at high loads on the initial 3–5 dpi, whereas the number of viral copies in the fish and seawater decreased after 14 dpi. These results indicate that the number of viral copies shed into the rearing seawater varies depending on the RSIV infection level in rock bream.

Mathematical models, some of which incorporate both intracellular and extracellular hepatitis C viral kinetics, have been advanced in recent years for studying HCV–host dynamics, antivirals mode of action, and their efficacy. The standard ordinary differential equation (ODE) hepatitis C virus (HCV) kinetic model keeps track of uninfected cells, infected cells, and free virus. In multiscale models, a fourth partial differential equation (PDE) accounts for the intracellular viral RNA (vRNA) kinetics in an infected cell. The PDE multiscale model is substantially more difficult to solve compared to the standard ODE model, with governing differential equations that are stiff. In previous contributions, we developed and implemented stable and efficient numerical methods for the multiscale model for both the solution of the model equations and parameter estimation. In this contribution, we perform sensitivity analysis on model parameters to gain insight into important properties and to ensure our numerical methods can be safely used for HCV viral dynamic simulations. Furthermore, we generate in-silico patients using the multiscale models to perform machine learning from the data, which enables us to remove HCV measurements on certain days and still be able to estimate meaningful observations with a sufficiently small error.

Several repurposed drugs are currently under investigation in the fight against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Candidates are often selected solely by their effective concentrations in vitro, an approach that has largely not lived up to expectations in COVID-19. Cell lines used in in vitro experiments are not necessarily representative of lung tissue. Yet, even if the proposed mode of action is indeed true, viral dynamics in vivo, host response, and concentration-time profiles must also be considered. Here we address the latter issue and describe a model of human SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics with acquired immune response to investigate the dynamic impact of timing and dosing regimens of hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir/ritonavir, ivermectin, artemisinin, and nitazoxanide. We observed greatest benefits when treatments were given immediately at the time of diagnosis. Even interventions with minor antiviral effect may reduce host exposure if timed correctly. Ivermectin seems to be at least partially effective: given on positivity, peak viral load dropped by 0.3–0.6 log units and exposure by 8.8–22.3%. The other drugs had little to no appreciable effect. Given how well previous clinical trial results for hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir are explained by the models presented here, similar strategies should be considered in future drug candidate prioritization efforts.

Background & Aims: Bulevirtide is a first-in-class entry inhibitor antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis D. The viral kinetics during bulevirtide therapy and the effect of combining bulevirtide with pegylated-interferon (Peg-IFN) are unknown., Methods: We used mathematical modelling to analyze the viral kinetics in two French observational cohorts of 183 patients receiving bulevirtide with or without Peg-IFN for 48 weeks., Results: The efficacy of bulevirtide in blocking cell infection was estimated to 90.3%, whereas Peg-IFN blocked viral production with an efficacy of 92.4%, albeit with large inter-individual variabilities. The addition of Peg-IFN to bulevirtide was associated with a more rapid virological decline, with a rate of virological response (>2 log of decline or undetectability) at week 48 of 86.9% (95% prediction interval [PI] = [79.7-95.0]), compared with 56.1% (95% PI = [46.4-66.7]) with bulevirtide only. The model was also used to predict the probability to achieve a cure of viral infection, with a rate of 8.8% (95% PI = [3.5-13.2]) with bulevirtide compared with 18.8% (95% PI = [11.6-29.0]) with bulevirtide + Peg-IFN. Mathematical modelling suggests that after 144 weeks of treatment, the rates of viral cure could be 42.1% (95% PI = [33.3-52.6]) with bulevirtide and 66.7% (95% PI = [56.5-76.8]) with bulevirtide + Peg-IFN., Conclusions: In this analysis of real-world data, Peg-IFN strongly enhanced the kinetics of viral decline in patients treated with bulevirtide. Randomized clinical trials are warranted to assess the virological and clinical benefit of this combination, and to identify predictors of poor response to treatment., Impact and Implications: Bulevirtide has been approved for chronic HDV infection by regulatory agencies in Europe based on its good safety profile and rapid virological response after treatment initiation, but the optimal duration of treatment and the chance to achieve a sustained virological response remain unknown. The results presented in this study have a high impact for clinicians and investigators as they provide important knowledge on the long-term virological benefits of a combination of Peg-IFN and bulevirtide in patients with CHD. Clinical trials are now warranted to confirm those predictions., Competing Interests: JG has received research funding and has consulted with Hoffman-LaRoche. SB, EG, and AG have received research funding from Eurobio Scientific. VdL received consulting fees from Gilead, AbbVie, BMS, GSK, Escopics, Alfasigma, Janssen, Orphalan, NovoNordisk, AstraZeneca. JMP has served as an advisor or speaker for Abbott, Abbvie, Gilead, and GSK. The other authors have no conflicts of interest to declare. Please refer to the accompanying ICMJE disclosure forms for further details., (© 2024 The Authors.)

Background: The virological and immunological effects of the immunomodulatory drugs used for COVID-19 remain unknown. We evaluated the impact of interleukin (IL)-6 blockade with tocilizumab on SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and the antibody response in patients with COVID-19. Methods: Prospective cohort study in patients admitted with COVID-19. Serial nasopharyngeal and plasma samples were measured for SARS-CoV-2 RNA and S-IgG/N-IgG titers, respectively. Findings: 138 patients with confirmed infection were included; 76 (55%) underwent IL-6 blockade. Median initial SOFA (p = 0•016) and SARS-CoV-2 viral load (p

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) affects about 170 million people worldwide and is the most common chronic blood borne infection in the United States. Since the advent of blood screening protocols in the early 1990s, injection drug use has become the leading cause of infection. Hepatitis C can have both hepatic and nonhepatic manifestations of infection. Hepatic manifestations include hepatic fibrosis, cirrhosis, liver cancer, and liver failure. The standard treatment for chronic HCV is combination therapy with pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin. Although pegylated interferon and ribavirin has been used against HCV for close to a decade, advances in therapy have centered on doses and treatment durations. There has been increasing interest in applying on-treatment response or viral kinetics to predict antiviral response rates and shape therapeutic intervention. Protease inhibitors are a promising adjuvant to combination therapy, but their efficacy and safety are still under investigation.

COVID-19 pandemic has underlined the impact of emergent pathogens as a major threat to human health. The development of quantitative approaches to advance comprehension of the current outbreak is urgently needed to tackle this severe disease. Considering different starting times of infection, mathematical models are proposed to represent SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in infected patients. Based on the target cell limited model, the within-host reproductive number for SARS-CoV-2 is consistent with the broad values of human influenza infection. The best model to fit the data was including immune cell response, which suggests a slow immune response peaking between 5 to 10 days post-onset of symptoms. The model with the eclipse phase, time in a latent phase before becoming productively infected cells, was not supported. Interestingly, model simulations predict that SARS-CoV-2 may replicate very slowly in the first days after infection, and viral load could be below detection levels during the first 4 days post infection. A quantitative comprehension of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics and the estimation of standard parameters of viral infections is the key contribution of this pioneering work. These models can serve for future evaluation of control theoretical approaches to tailor new drugs against COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]