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Social Protection Programs for Africa’s Drylands explores the role of social protection in promoting the well-being and prosperity of people living in dryland regions of Sub-Saharan Africa, with a specific focus on the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. Based on a review of recent experience, it argues that social protection policies and programs have an important role in promoting the resilience of the people residing in these areas. Social protection programs, when well designed and carefully implemented at scale, can reduce vulnerability to droughts and other shocks and promote coping capacity. If present trends continue, by 2030 dryland regions of East and West Africa will be home to an estimated 429 million people, up to 24 percent of whom will be living in chronic poverty. Many others will depend on livelihood strategies that are sensitive to the shocks that will hit the region with increasing frequency and severity, making them vulnerable to falling into transient poverty. Social protection programs will be needed in the drylands to provide support to those unable to meet their basic needs. Some of these people will require long-term support, while others will require periodic short-term support because of income losses due to shocks (for example, crop failure following a drought) or as a result of lifecycle changes (for example, loss of a breadwinner). Safety net programs can increase resilience in the short term by improving coping capacity of vulnerable households. Rapidly scalable safety nets that provide cash, food, or other resources to shock-affected households can allow them to recover from unexpected shocks. Scaling up an existing safety net program can be far less expensive than relying on appeals for humanitarian assistance to meet urgent needs. Social protection programs can increase resilience over the longer term by reducing sensitivity to shocks of vulnerable households especially if combined with other development programs. Providing predictable support to chronically poor households and enabling them to invest in productive assets and access basic social services can effectively reduce these households’ sensitivity to future shocks, help them participate in the growth process, and take advantage of the investments made in agricultural and pastoralist activities proposed in the drylands.

Cash transfers have proliferated in the past decade as key policy instruments to tackle vulnerability and inequality. Payment mechanisms (PMs), the backbone of cash transfers, are the channels through which cash travels from the funding source to the hands of beneficiaries. In theory, the harmonization ofpayment flows in PMs with other program processes is critical to delivering the right benefit to the right people at the right time while minimizing costs. In reality, however, PMs tend to remain disconnected, rendering payments inefficient and plagued by error, fraud and corruption. In recent years, program operators, financial institutions, and technology innovators have developed strategies for streamlining payment flows. These innovations, if properly integrated into program management through a Management Information System (MIS) and supported by rigorous outreach, can not only promote efficiency and transparency but also ensure effectiveness. This paper provides a framework for integrating PMs within program management. It walks the reader through seven basic steps to process payments. It does so by articulating the flow of beneficiary information and funds from the point of beneficiary enrollment to payment reconciliation and grievance redress. It also looks at the framework through the lenses of different cash transfer interventions and the cases of Kenya, Rwanda, and Mexico. The paper concludes that to execute successful PMs it is key to: (i) integrate payments within an MIS; (ii) adopt a cost-effective mix of traditional and technology instruments suitable to the country's context in the short and long run; (iii) decentralize the control and accountability of service provision across government levels; (iv) understand the capacity and incentives of stakeholders; (v) provide manuals, training and information to key players; and (vi) enforce payment parameters and penalize their violation.

Zambia is a county characterized by a high incidence of poverty and exposure to several types of shocks like HIV/AIDS, macroeconomic instability and periodic droughts. In this paper the authors conduct an in depth analysis of the incidence and impact of those shocks on poverty. The analysis of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, carried out using the data on the occurrence of the death of an adult in the previous 12 months and the existence of foster children, shows the existence of a generaldecrease in consumption with the exception of non poor rural families. The deterioration of the economic situation and the related high level of unemployment resulted in a lower level of economic wellbeing. Finally, the analysis of the impact of the drought shows that while a significant percentage (17 percent) of the poorest households in rural areas would experience significant losses in maize production (covering 8 percent of all the households), they are concentrated in a few communities in Southern, Central and Western provinces. In order to identify those households that might suffer more from the negative impact of the shocks and/or have a low level of human capital the authors defined"vulnerable households", those that are likely to be poor and exposed to shocks, and"chronically poor households", those that are likely to be poor and have low levels of human capital outcomes. According to this definition, about 20 percent of the households are vulnerable whilst almost 40 percent are chronically poor and 10 percent are at the same time both vulnerable and chronically poor and therefore at most risk. Private coping mechanisms and private transfers are very common, but they do not seem to be effective in helping households to deal with the adverse impact of shocks. On the other hand, household participation in food for work programs increase after the death of a household member. Therefore there is a need for long term household human capital investments, programs to alleviate the burden of HIV/AIDS, and targeted programs for the alleviating weather related shocks like the drought.

Rural households in developing countries are buffeted by environmental, social, health and economic shocks. This paper provides an empirical vignette of the frequency and spatial distribution of such shocks in Madagascar. The association between shocks, community and household assets, and levels of economic well-being (as measured by per-capita expenditures) is then explored, along with the implications for reducing levels of chronic poverty.

"Flooding is a normal part of the ecology of Bangladesh. The 1998 flood was especially serious because of its depth and duration. At its peak, the flood covered two-thirds of the country, causing severe damage to the rice crop and threatening the food security of millions of households. Total rice production losses exceeded 2 million tons—about 10 percent of annual consumption. In sharp contrast to earlier flood disasters, particularly that of 1974, no major food crisis occurred. Instead, large-scale, private-sector imports, made possible by trade liberalization in the early 1990s, stabilized rice markets. Government food transfers to poor households also limited the impact of the flood on household access to food. This paper sheds light on the contribution of price stabilization to household food security following a major natural shock through estimates of the impact of rice prices and other factors on calorie consumption in 1998 and 1999. More broadly, the paper examines the components of the public and private response that prevented a major food crisis." from Abstract"

The Government of Bangladesh launched the innovative Food for Education (FFE) program in 1993. The FFE program provides a free monthly ration of rice or wheat to poor families if their children attend primary school. The goals of this program are to increase primary school enrollment, promote attendance, reduce dropout rates, and enhance the quality of education. This paper presents the findings of a recent International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) evaluation of the FFE program that demonstrates the extent to which these goals were met. This evaluation uses primary data collected from multiple surveys covering schools, households, communities, and foodgrain dealers. The authors first examine the performance of the FFE program, showing that it has largely fulfilled its objectives of increasing school enrollment, promoting school attendance, and preventing dropouts. The enrollment increase was greater for girls than for boys. The quality of education, however, remains a problem. Next, they analyze the targeting effectiveness of the program, its impact on food security, and its efficiency in distributing rations. In general, the FFE program targets low-income households. However, there is considerable scope for improving targeting, as a sizable number of poor households remain excluded from the program even while many nonpoor households are included. Furthermore, the evaluation results indicate that the functioning of the current private-dealer-based foodgrain distribution system of the FFE program is not satisfactory.

This paper examines the impact of wheat transfers and cash incomes on wheat consumption and wheat markets. Using propensity score- matching techniques, the total marginal propensity to consume (MPC) for wheat is, on average, 0.33, ranging from essentially zero for Food For Work (a program with large transfers) to 0.51 for Food For Education. Econometric estimates indicate that the MPC for small wheat transfers to poor households is approximately 0.25, while the MPC for wheat out of cash income is near zero. This increase in demand for wheat reduces the potential price effect of three major targeted programs involving small rations (Food For Education, Vulnerable Group Development, and Vulnerable Group Feeding) by about one-third.

This report combines a careful analysis of government policy and private foodgrain markets with a detailed survey of 757 households in rural Bangladesh in November and December 1998, about two months after the floodwaters receded. The report describes short- and medium-term government policy measures taken to encourage private trade, including an earlier trade liberalization that permitted private-sector imports of rice from India that stabilized private markets and largely offset the decline in production. The impact of the floods on household assets, employment, consumption, and nutritional outcomes is analyzed using the micro-level survey data. The study finds that flood-exposed households were, in general, able to avoid severe declines in food consumption and nutritional status through a combination of private-sector borrowing... and targeted government and NGO transfers.

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between commodity prices and wages in the rural labor markets of a developing country (i.e., Bangladesh). Given its basis on a theoretical justification for hysteresis, this empirical study provides a more complete method for investigating labor market hysteresis than previous research.

This report presents local data and related discussion on the economic importance of agriculture and agriculture-related industries in Minnesota. Statistical findings show the contribution of agriculture to Minnesota's economic base and to changes in employment, income, and population in the state and its substate regions and counties.

Agriculture: Essential to Minnesota's Economy

This report presents statistical reference series for the study and projection of Minnesota's economic outlook in the 1980's. The reference series serve as baseline forecasts for the assessment on Minnesota's job and income prospects in its basic industries, including agriculture, forestry, mining, manufacturing and services for nonresidents in work and leisure activities. In Part I, two sets of baseline forecasts are presented, namely, short-term quarter-year and long-term five-year forecasts of industry employment and personal earnings and income.

This dissertation focuses on identifying the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the potential of social assistance programs to address their condition. Each essay is related to one particular key step of the poverty alleviation agenda: poverty definition and measurement in Zimbabwe; targeting poor households in Cameroon; and impact evaluation of anti-poverty interventions in Niger. The first essay explores changes in poverty across multiple dimensions in a period of dramatic economic crisis and recovery in Zimbabwe. The essay analyzes changes in household well-being between 2001, 2007 and 2011/12, using an Alkire-Foster multidimensional poverty index. Results indicate a large increase in multidimensional poverty across between 2001 and 2007, followed by a (smaller) decrease in poverty between 2007 and 2011/12 (recovery period after the hyperinflation peak in 2008). However, decomposition of the index shows significantly different trends in poverty dimensions over time, as for instance health related dimensions continued to deteriorate after 2007. The second essay contributes to the policy debate on targeting by studying the ex-post efficiency of two targeting mechanisms employed in a cash transfer project in rural Cameroon: Proxy Means Testing (PMT) and community targeting. Results show a poor performance of community targeting in selecting households with low per capita consumption, compared to PMT targeting—whose errors remain high nonetheless. Communities tend to select small, isolated households with low physical and human capital, regardless of their actual consumption level, but produce variable outcomes. Overall results suggest that a higher coverage contributes to reducing targeting errors, and that better guidance should be provided to communities if the policy objective is to select low per capita consumption individuals. The third essay investigate whether cash transfers induce investments in assets and productive activities that survive the termination of program payments using data from an unconditional cash transfer project in Niger 18 months after its termination. Based on quasi-experimental methods, results indicate that local saving/credit systems (tontines) participation and livestock ownership significantly increased among project participants. There is also evidence of improvement in private assets, micro-enterprises and agriculture. The findings imply that cash transfer programs can have long-term sustainable impacts in rural SSA. Ph. D.

The main purpose of the study is to identify household characteristics which can 1) distinguish between the chronic poor and transient poor and 2) be feasibly implemented as targeting criterion in poverty interventions. Data for this study was drawn from Mozambique's 2008/09 Household Budget Survey and consisted of 10,832 observations. This study fills a gap in the literature by structurally determining the impact of common shocks (drought, floods and cyclones, agricultural pests, illness, death, and theft) on 1) food expenditures at the household level and 2) poverty rates at the national level. The results of the study indicate that shocks are one of the key determinants of household food expenditures. The expected impact of shocks in aggregate increases the national poverty rate by 9%. However, the impact of specific shocks on household food expenditures varies across regions and households. Further, the variables which are strongly correlated with chronic poverty differ from the variables strongly correlated with transient poverty. These results suggest the need to both more rapidly identify and enroll households exposed to shocks in short-term social protection programs and continue to improve methods targeting the chronic poor in long-term programs. Master of Science