1. Uncontrolled reentries of space objects and aviation safety.
- Author
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Hook, Charlotte, Wright, Ewan, Byers, Michael, and Boley, Aaron
- Subjects
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AERONAUTICAL safety measures , *COMMERCIAL aeronautics , *ROCKET launching , *ROCKETS (Aeronautics) , *AIRCRAFT accidents , *SPACE debris - Abstract
There is a growing risk to aircraft in flight from collisions with debris produced by the breakup of uncontrolled rocket bodies and satellites during atmospheric reentry. On one hand, the aviation industry has grown to almost 39 million flights per year, with a 63 % increase between 2004 and 2019. On the other hand, the number of successful rocket launches more than doubled between 2015 and 2023, from 87 to 212, respectively. During those 212 launches in 2023, 128 rocket bodies were abandoned in orbit, left to reenter uncontrollably. Such uncontrolled space object reentries are hard to predict, making mitigation measures difficult. In November 2022, a reentering Long March 5B rocket caused the closure of airspace over Europe, delaying 645 flights and having a plausible economic impact of millions of Euros. There are international and domestic laws that might enable the recovery of economic losses resulting from uncontrolled reentries, but such losses should not be allowed to occur in the first place. Instead of leaving the location of a reentry to chance, controlled reentries can be achieved with existing technologies and mission designs, directing reentries away from areas of high aircraft traffic. Moving to a controlled reentry regime would create a cost to space operators – but that cost is currently being externalized to the aviation industry. Multilateral solutions to create a controlled reentry regime should be pursued, as recommended in the 2023 Montreal Recommendations on Aviation Safety and Uncontrolled Space Object Reentries, before there is a tragedy caused by an aircraft collision with debris from a rocket body or satellite. • As the number of rocket launches and commercial aircraft flights increase, the probability of a catastrophic collision between an aircraft and reentering space debris is also growing. • Technologies and mission designs exist to enable all rocket bodies to be returned to Earth in a controlled manner, eliminating the casualty risk. • From a broad economic perspective, space companies are externalizing some of their risks and costs and imposing them on the aviation industry. • States are liable for damage caused by reentering space objects and could be liable for the economic costs caused by precautionary airspace closures. • The 2023 Montreal Recommendations offer actionable steps to reduce the risk of collisions between space debris and aircraft. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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