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Eolagurus luteus (yellow steppe lemming Eolagurus luteus Eversmann, 1840) is a keystone species in the desert steppe of northern Xinjiang, one of the regions most affected by global climate change. Their behavior of eating grassland vegetation and digging holes has resulted in the reduction of grassland vegetation and soil erosion in northern Xinjiang, which has seriously affected the ecological balance of the grassland in northern Xinjiang, and pathogens carried by E. luteus pose a great threat to human health. Climate change exacerbates the uncertainty of the outbreak of E. luteus. Predicting the suitable habitat area of this species under climate change scenarios will help farmers and herders deal with the potential threat of an E. luteus outbreak. In this study, 117 actual occurrence points of E. luteus were used, and 24 climate models, 6 soil factors and 3 topographic factors from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) were taken into account. Combining the MaxEnt model and the overlay analysis function of ArcGIS software, the potential geographic distribution of E. luteus in 2030 and 2050 for the green development path (SSP126), the intermediate development path (SSP245), the regional competition path (SSP370), and the high development path (SSP585) was predicted. The change trend of the suitable area and distribution pattern of E. luteus in Xinjiang under future climate conditions was analyzed, and the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of E. luteus are discussed. The results show that the average area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) of the MaxEnt model are 0.993 and 0.8816, respectively, indicating that the model has a good prediction effect. The analysis of environmental factors showed that the main environmental factors affecting the potential geographical distribution of E. luteus are average annual temperature, isotherm, average temperature in the wettest quarter, average temperature in the driest quarter, and precipitation variation coefficient. With the increase of radiation intensity and time, the suitable areas of E. luteus will continue to decrease. Especially in the 2050s under the SSP585 scenario, the middle and high suitable areas will decrease by 2.58 × 104 km2 and 1.52 × 104 km2, respectively. Although the potential habitat area of E. luteus is shrinking, the future threat of E. luteus to grassland ecological security and human health should not be underestimated due to ecological adaptation of the community and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather. Therefore, studying changes in the potential geographic distribution of E. luteus under climate change scenarios and developing appropriate monitoring programs are of great importance for grassland ecological security and human health. This study fills in the gaps in the study of the potential geographical distribution of E. luteus and provides methodological and literature support for the study of the potential geographical distribution of other rodents.

Climate change, especially climate extremes, can increase the uncertainty of locust outbreaks. The Italian locust(Calliptamus italicus L.), Asian Migratory locust (Locusta migratoria migratoria L.), and Siberian locust(Gomphocerus sibiricus) are common pests widely distributed in the semidesert grasslands of Central Asia and its surrounding regions.Predicting locust geographic distribution changes and future habitats accounting for climate warming is essential to effectively prevent large and sudden locust outbreaks. The MaxEnt model was used in this study to identify environmental factors that impact the distribution of the three typical locust species and to display the probable appropriate regions and uncertainty of typical locust species habitats under different current and future climatic scenarios. Our results showed that soil surface sand content, slope, mean precipitation during the hottest season, and precipitation seasonality were the key environmental variables affecting locust distribution in the region. The three locust species are mainly distributed in the upstream region of the Irtysh River, the Alatao Mountain region, the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, around Sayram Lake, the eastern part of the Alakol Lake region, the Tekes River region, the western part of Ulungur Lake, the Ili River, the upstream region of the Tarim River. According to several climate projections, the area of potential habitat for the three most common locust species will decrease by 3.9 x 104 − 4.6 x 104 km2 by the 2030s and by 6.4 x 104 − 10.6 x 104 km2 by the 2050s. Although the suitable area is shrinking, the climate is becoming more extreme, and the high suitability area is expanding, so the risk of infestation should be taken seriously. This study on locust habitat change under climate change provides a scientific basis for the scientific prevention and control of locust disasters and the sustainable development of the grassland environment in China and Kazakhstan in the context of global warming and intergovernmental cooperation measures.

Ecological security and ecosystem stability in Central Asia depend heavily on the local vegetation. Vegetation dynamics and the response and hysteresis relationships to climate factors and drought on multiple scales over long time series in the region still need to be further explored. Using the net primary productivity (NPP) values as the vegetation change index of interest, in this study, we analyzed vegetation dynamics in Central Asia from 1982 to 2020 and assessed the responses and time lags of vegetation to climate factors and drought. The results showed that NPP gradually decreased from north to south and from east to west. Vegetation was distributed along both sides of the mountains. The temperatures rose from northeast to southwest, while precipitation gradually increased from southwest to northeast. The proportion of dry and wet years was as follows: normal (56.41%) slightly dry (28.2%) slightly humid (15.39%). Precipitation and drought conditions were positively correlated with NPP during the growing season, while temperature was negatively correlated with NPP. Increased spring temperature, precipitation, and drought conditions positively affected vegetation, while sustained summer temperature resulted in suppressed vegetation growth. Autumn vegetation was positively affected by temperature and drought, and precipitation was negatively correlated with autumn vegetation. Increasing winter temperatures promoted vegetation growth. The time lag between NPP and temperature gradually increased from northeast to southwest, and the time lag between NPP and precipitation gradually increased from south to north. Spring temperatures had the greatest beneficial impact on forestlands; summer climatic factors and drought had little effect on shrublands; the autumn climate exhibited small differences in its influence of each plant type; and winter temperatures had the greatest positive effect on grasslands. No time lag effect was found between any of the four vegetation types and precipitation. A one-month lag was found between cultivated lands and temperature; a two-month lag was found between forestlands and temperature; and a one-month lag was found between forestlands and drought and between shrublands and drought. The results can provide a scientific foundation for the sustainable development and management of ecosystems.