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We develop a novel hybrid epidemiological model and a specific methodology for its calibration to distinguish and assess the impact of mobility restrictions (given by Apple's mobility trends data) from other complementary non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) used to control the spread of COVID-19. Using the calibrated model, we estimate that mobility restrictions contribute to 47 % (US States) and 47 % (worldwide) of the overall suppression of the disease transmission rate using data up to 13/08/2020. The forecast capacity of our model was evaluated doing four-weeks ahead predictions. Using data up to 30/06/20 for calibration, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the prediction of cumulative deceased individuals was 5.0 % for the United States (51 states) and 6.7 % worldwide (49 countries). This MAPE was reduced to 3.5% for the US and 3.8% worldwide using data up to 13/08/2020. We find that the MAPE was higher for the total confirmed cases at 11.5% worldwide and 10.2% for the US States using data up to 13/08/2020. Our calibrated model achieves an average R-Squared value for cumulative confirmed and deceased cases of 0.992 using data up to 30/06/20 and 0.98 using data up to 13/08/20.

The automated inference of physically interpretable (bio)chemical reaction network models from measured experimental data is a challenging problem whose solution has significant commercial and academic ramifications. It is demonstrated, using simulations, how sets of elementary reactions comprising chemical reaction networks, as well as their rate coefficients, may be accurately recovered from non-equilibrium time series concentration data, such as that obtained from laboratory scale reactors. A variant of an evolutionary algorithm called differential evolution in conjunction with least squares techniques is used to search the space of reaction networks in order to infer both the reaction network topology and its rate parameters. Properties of the stoichiometric matrices of trial networks are used to bias the search towards physically realisable solutions. No other information, such as chemical characterisation of the reactive species is required, although where available it may be used to improve the search process., Comment: 36 pages. In: Dehmer, M., Varmuza, K., Bonchev, D, ed. Statistical Modelling of Molecular Descriptors in QSAR/QSPR. Weinheim, Germany: Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH, 2012, pp.327-348