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Past efforts to synthesize and quantify the magnitude and change in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems across the rapidly warming Arctic-boreal zone (ABZ) have provided valuable information but were limited in their geographical and temporal coverage. Furthermore, these efforts have been based on data aggregated over varying time periods, often with only minimal site ancillary data, thus limiting their potential to be used in large-scale carbon budget assessments. To bridge these gaps, we developed a standardized monthly database of Arctic-boreal CO2 fluxes (ABCflux) that aggregates in situ measurements of terrestrial net ecosystem CO2 exchange and its derived partitioned component fluxes: gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration. The data span from 1989 to 2020 with over 70 supporting variables that describe key site conditions (e.g., vegetation and disturbance type), micrometeorological and environmental measurements (e.g., air and soil temperatures), and flux measurement techniques. Here, we describe these variables, the spatial and temporal distribution of observations, the main strengths and limitations of the database, and the potential research opportunities it enables. In total, ABCflux includes 244 sites and 6309 monthly observations; 136 sites and 2217 monthly observations represent tundra, and 108 sites and 4092 observations represent the boreal biome. The database includes fluxes estimated with chamber (19% of the monthly observations), snow diffusion (3%) and eddy covariance (78%) techniques. The largest number of observations were collected during the climatological summer (June-August; 32%), and fewer observations were available for autumn (September-October; 25%), winter (December-February; 18%), and spring (March-May; 25%). ABCflux can be used in a wide array of empirical, remote sensing and modeling studies to improve understanding of the regional and temporal variability in CO2 fluxes and to better estimate the terrestrial ABZ CO2 budget. ABCflux is openly and freely available online (Virkkala et al., 2021b, 10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1934). Copyright:

The continued warming of the Arctic could release vast stores of carbon into the atmosphere from high-latitude ecosystems, especially from thawing permafrost. Increasing uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by vegetation during longer growing seasons may partially offset such release of carbon. However, evidence of significant net annual release of carbon from site-level observations and model simulations across tundra ecosystems has been inconclusive. To address this knowledge gap, we combined top-down observations of atmospheric CO2 concentration enhancements from aircraft and a tall tower, which integrate ecosystem exchange over large regions, with bottom-up observed CO2 fluxes from tundra environments and found that the Alaska North Slope is not a consistent net source nor net sink of CO2 to the atmosphere (ranging from -6 to +6TgCyr-1 for 2012-2017). Our analysis suggests that significant biogenic CO2 fluxes from unfrozen terrestrial soils, and likely inland waters, during the early cold season (September-December) are major factors in determining the net annual carbon balance of the North Slope, implying strong sensitivity to the rapidly warming freeze-up period. At the regional level, we find no evidence of the previously reported large late-cold-season (January-April) CO2 emissions to the atmosphere during the study period. Despite the importance of the cold-season CO2 emissions to the annual total, the interannual variability in the net CO2 flux is driven by the variability in growing season fluxes. During the growing season, the regional net CO2 flux is also highly sensitive to the distribution of tundra vegetation types throughout the North Slope. This study shows that quantification and characterization of year-round CO2 fluxes from the heterogeneous terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Arctic using both site-level and atmospheric observations are important to accurately project the Earth system response to future warming.

Arctic warming is affecting snow cover and soil hydrology, with consequences for carbon sequestration in tundra ecosystems. The scarcity of observations in the Arctic has limited our understanding of the impact of covarying environmental drivers on the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems. In this study, we address some of these uncertainties through a novel record of 119 site-years of summer data from eddy covariance towers representing dominant tundra vegetation types located on continuous permafrost in the Arctic. Here we found that earlier snowmelt was associated with more tundra net CO2 sequestration and higher gross primary productivity (GPP) only in June and July, but with lower net carbon sequestration and lower GPP in August. Although higher evapotranspiration (ET) can result in soil drying with the progression of the summer, we did not find significantly lower soil moisture with earlier snowmelt, nor evidence that water stress affected GPP in the late growing season. Our results suggest that the expected increased CO2 sequestration arising from Arctic warming and the associated increase in growing season length may not materialize if tundra ecosystems are not able to continue sequestering CO2 later in the season.

Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1-3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is highly uncertain and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or by empirically-based estimates5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1662 Tg C yr-1 from the permafrost region during the winter season (October through April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (-1032 Tg C yr-1). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions in 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5-and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario-RCP 8.5. Our results provide a new baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) are a form of abrupt permafrost thaw that can rapidly mobilize ancient frozen soil carbon, magnifying the permafrost carbon feedback. However, the magnitude of this effect is uncertain, largely due to limited information about the distribution and extent of RTS across the circumpolar region. Although deep learning methods such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) have shown the ability to map RTS from high-resolution satellite imagery (≤10 m), challenges remain in deploying these models across large areas. Imagery selection and procurement remain one of the largest challenges to upscaling RTS mapping projects, as the user must balance cost with resolution and sensor quality. In this study, we compared the performance of three satellite imagery sources that differed in terms of sensor quality and cost in predicting RTS using a Unet3+ CNN model and identified RTS characteristics that impact detectability. Maxar WorldView imagery was the most expensive option, with a ground sample distance of 1.85 m in the multispectral bands (downloaded at 4 m resolution). Planet Labs PlanetScope imagery was a less expensive option with a ground sample distance of approximately 3.0–4.2 m (downloaded at 3 m resolution). Although PlanetScope imagery was downloaded at a higher resolution than WorldView, the radiometric footprint is around 10–12 m, resulting in less crisp imagery. Finally, Sentinel-2 imagery is freely available and has a 10 m resolution. We used 756 RTS polygons from seven sites across Arctic Canada and Siberia in model training and 63 RTS polygons in model testing. The mean IoU of the validation and testing data sets were 0.69 and 0.75 for the WorldView model, 0.70 and 0.71 for the PlanetScope model, and 0.66 and 0.68 for the Sentinel-2 model, respectively. The IoU of the RTS class was nonlinearly related to the RTS Area, showing a strong positive correlation that attenuated as the RTS Area increased. The models were better able to predict RTS that appeared bright on a dark background and were less able to predict RTS that had higher plant cover, indicating that bare ground was a primary way the models detected RTS. Additionally, the models performed less well in wet areas or areas with patchy ground cover. These results indicate that all imagery sources tested here were able to predict larger RTS, but higher-quality imagery allows more accurate detection of smaller RTS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH4) emissions globally. Northern wetlands (>45° N), accounting for 42 % of global wetland area, are increasingly vulnerable to carbon loss, especially as CH4 emissions may accelerate under intensified high-latitude warming. However, the magnitude and spatial patterns of high-latitude CH4 emissions remain relatively uncertain. Here we present estimates of daily CH4 fluxes obtained using a new machine learning-based wetland CH4 upscaling framework (WetCH4) that applies the most complete database of eddy covariance (EC) observations available to date, and satellite remote sensing informed observations of environmental conditions at 10-km resolution. The most important predictor variables included near-surface soil temperatures (top 40 cm), vegetation reflectance, and soil moisture. Our results, modeled from 138 site-years across 26 sites, had relatively strong predictive skill with a mean R2 of 0.46 and 0.62 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 23 nmol m-2 s-1 and 21 nmol m-2 s-1 for daily and monthly fluxes, respectively. Based on the model results, we estimated an annual average of 20.8 ±2.1 Tg CH4 yr-1 for the northern wetland region (2016–2022) and total budgets ranged from 13.7–44.1 Tg CH4 yr-1, depending on wetland map extents. Although 86 % of the estimated CH4 budget occurred during the May–October period, a considerable amount (1.4 ±0.2 Tg CH4) occurred during winter. Regionally, the West Siberian wetlands accounted for a majority (51 %) of the interannual variation in domain CH4 emissions. Significant issues with data coverage remain, with only 23 % of the sites observing year-round and most of the data from 11 wetland sites in Alaska and 10 bog/fen sites in Canada and Fennoscandia, and in general, Western Siberian Lowlands are underrepresented by EC CH4 sites. Our results provide high spatiotemporal information on the wetland emissions in the high-latitude carbon cycle and possible responses to climate change. Continued, all-season tower observations and improved soil moisture products are needed for future improvement of CH4 upscaling. The dataset can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10802154 (Ying et al., 2024). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small water bodies (i.e., ponds; <0.01 km2) play an important role in Earth System processes, including carbon cycling and emissions of methane. Detection and monitoring of ponds using satellite imagery has been extremely difficult and many water maps are biased toward lakes (>0.01 km2). We leverage high‐resolution (3 m) optical satellite imagery from Planet Labs and deep learning methods to map seasonal changes in pond and lake areal extent across four regions in Alaska. Our water maps indicate that changes in open water extent over the snow‐free season are especially pronounced in ponds. To investigate potential impacts of seasonal changes in pond area on carbon emissions, we provide a case study of open water methane emission budgets using the new water maps. Our approach has widespread applications for water resources, habitat and land cover change assessments, wildlife management, risk assessments, and other biogeochemical modeling efforts. Plain Language Summary: Small water bodies (<0.01 km2) are an important driver of many Earth system processes. Despite their importance, many existing water mapping products have difficulty detecting these small water features and their seasonal changes in surface area. We used deep learning and high‐resolution (3 m) satellite imagery to map and monitor seasonal changes in the areal extent of lakes and small ponds across four regions in Alaska. The resulting water maps accounted for considerably more water coverage than existing products. The maps also effectively tracked widespread seasonal changes in pond and lake area that were not previously identified. This demonstrates the importance of monitoring surface water at high spatial resolutions and across seasons. Key Points: Deep learning and 3 m resolution satellite imagery from Planet Labs can detect and track ponds and lakes >0.0001 km2Total surface area for ponds (<0.01 km2) in boreal forest and tundra environments can vary by 20%–40% throughout an individual seasonPonds can contribute to a broad range (8%–37%) of total methane emissions from lakes and ponds in northern boreal forest and tundra [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: High-resolution soil moisture estimates are critical for planning water management and assessing environmental quality. In-situ measurements alone are too costly to support the spatial and temporal resolutions needed for water management. Recent efforts have combined calibration data with machine learning algorithms to fill the gap where high resolution moisture estimates are lacking at the field scale. This study aimed to provide calibrated soil moisture models and methodology for generating gridded estimates of soil moisture at multiple depths, according to user-defined temporal periods, spatial resolution and extent. Methods: We applied nearly one million national library soil moisture records from over 100 sites, spanning the U.S. Midwest and West, to build Quantile Random Forest (QRF) calibration models. The QRF models were built on covariates including soil moisture estimates from North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), soil properties, climate variables, digital elevation models, and remote sensing-derived indices. We also explored an alternative approach that adopted a regionalized calibration dataset for the Western U.S. The broad-scale QRF models were independently validated according to sampling depths, land cover type, and observation period. We then explored the model performance improved with local samples used for spiking. Finally, the QRF models were applied to estimate soil moisture at the field scale where evaluation was carried out to check estimated temporal and spatial patterns. Results: The broad-scale QRF model showed moderate performance (R2 = 0.53, RMSE = 0.078 m3/m3) when data points from all depth layers (up to 100 cm) were considered for an independent validation. Elevation, NLDAS-derived moisture, soil properties, and sampling depth were ranked as the most important covariates. The best model performance was observed for forest and pasture sites (R2 > 0.5; RMSE < 0.09 m3/m3), followed by grassland and cropland (R2 > 0.4; RMSE < 0.11 m3/m3). Model performance decreased with sampling depths and was slightly lower during the winter months. Spiking the national QRF model with local samples improved model performance by reducing the RMSE to less than 0.05 m3/m3 for grassland sites. At the field scale, model estimates illustrated more accurate temporal trends for surface than subsurface soil layers. Model estimated spatial patterns need to be further improved and validated with management data. Conclusions: The model accuracy for top 0-20 cm soil depth (R2 > 0.5, RMSE < 0.08 m3/m3) showed promise for adopting the methodology for soil moisture monitoring. The success of spiking the national model with local samples showed the need to collect multi-year high frequency (e.g., hourly) sensor-based field measurements to improve estimates of soil moisture for a longer time period. Future work should improve model performance for deeper depths with additional hydraulic properties and use of locally-selected calibration datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past efforts to synthesize and quantify the magnitude and change in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems across the rapidly warming Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) have provided valuable information, but were limited in their geographical and temporal coverage. Furthermore, these efforts have been based on data aggregated over varying time periods, often with only minimal site ancillary data, thus limiting their potential to be used in large-scale carbon budget assessments. To bridge these gaps, we developed a standardized monthly database of Arctic-Boreal CO2 fluxes (ABCflux) that aggregates in-situ measurements of terrestrial net ecosystem CO2 exchange and its derived partitioned component fluxes: gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration. The data span from 1989 to 2020 with over 70 supporting variables that describe key site conditions (e.g., vegetation and disturbance type), micrometeorological and environmental measurements (e.g., air and soil temperatures) and flux measurement techniques. Here, we describe these variables, the spatial and temporal distribution of observations, the main strengths and limitations of the database, and the potential research opportunities it enables. In total, ABCflux includes 244 sites and 6309 monthly observations; 136 sites and 2217 monthly observations represent tundra, and 108 sites and 4092 observations represent the boreal biome. The database includes fluxes estimated with chamber (19 % of the monthly observations), snow diffusion (3 %) and eddy covariance (78 %) techniques. The largest number of observations were collected during the climatological summer (June-August; 32 %), and fewer observations were available for autumn (September-October; 25 %), winter (December-February; 18 %), and spring (March-May; 25 %). ABCflux can be used in a wide array of empirical, remote sensing and modeling studies to improve understanding of the regional and temporal variability in CO2 fluxes, and to better estimate the terrestrial ABZ CO2 budget. ABCflux is openly and freely available online (https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1934, Virkkala et al., 2021a). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contribution of soil heterotrophic respiration to the boreal-Arctic carbon (CO2) cycle and its potential feedback to climate change remain poorly quantified. We developed a remote sensing driven permafrost carbon model at intermediate scale (~ 1 km) to investigate how environmental factors affect the magnitude and seasonality of soil heterotrophic respiration in Alaska. The permafrost carbon model simulates snow and soil thermal dynamics, and accounts for vertical soil carbon transport and decomposition at depths up to 3 m below surface. Model outputs include soil temperature profiles and carbon fluxes at 1-km resolution spanning the recent satellite era (2001-2017) across Alaska. Comparisons with eddy covariance tower measurements show that the model captures the seasonality of carbon fluxes, with favorable accuracy in predicting net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) in both tundra (R > 0.8, RMSE = 0.34 g C m-2 d-1) and boreal forest (R > 0.73, RMSE = 0.51 g C m-2 d-1). Benchmark assessments using two regional in-situ datasets indicate that the model captures the complex influence of snow insulation on soil temperature, and the temperature sensitivity of cold-season soil respiration. Across Alaska, we find that seasonal snow cover imposes strong controls on the contribution from different soil depths to total soil carbon emissions. Earlier snow melt in spring promotes deeper soil warming and enhances the contribution of deeper soils to total soil respiration during the later growing season, thereby reducing net ecosystem carbon uptake. Early cold-season soil respiration is closely linked to the number of snow-free days after land surface freezes (R = -0.48, p < 0.1), i.e. the delay in snow onset relative to surface freeze onset. Recent trends toward earlier autumn snow onset in northern Alaska promote a longer zero-curtain period and enhanced cold-season respiration. In contrast, southwestern Alaska shows a strong reduction in the number of snow-free days after land surface freeze onset, leading to earlier soil freezing and a large reduction in cold-season soil respiration. Our results also show non-negligible influences of sub-grid variability of surface conditions on the model simulated CO2 seasonal cycle, especially during the early cold season at 10-km scale. Our results demonstrate the critical role of snow cover affecting the seasonality of soil temperature and respiration and highlight the challenges of incorporating these complex processes into future projections of boreal-Arctic carbon cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new automated method enabling consistent satellite assessment of seasonal lake ice phenology at 5 km resolution was developed for all lake pixels (water coverage ≥90 %) in the Northern Hemisphere using 36.5 GHz H-polarized brightness temperature (Tb) observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR-E/2) sensors. The lake phenology metrics include seasonal timing and duration of annual ice cover. A moving t test (MTT) algorithm allows for automated lake ice retrievals with daily temporal fidelity and 5 km resolution gridding. The resulting ice phenology record shows strong agreement with available ground-based observations from the Global Lake and River Ice Phenology Database (95.4% temporal agreement) and favorable correlations (R) with alternative ice phenology records from the Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (R = 0:84 for water clear of ice (WCI) dates; R = 0:41 for complete freeze over (CFO) dates) and Canadian Ice Service (R = 0:86 for WCI dates; R = 0:69 for CFO dates). Analysis of the resulting 12-year (2002-2015) AMSR-E/2 ice record indicates increasingly shorter ice cover duration for 43 out of 71 (60.6 %) Northern Hemisphere lakes examined, with significant (p <0.05) regional trends toward earlier ice melting for only five lakes. Higherlatitude lakes reveal more widespread and larger trends toward shorter ice cover duration than lower-latitude lakes, consistent with enhanced polar warming. This study documents a new satellite-based approach for rapid assessment and regional monitoring of seasonal ice cover changes over large lakes, with resulting accuracy suitable for global change studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is currently undergoing intense changes in climate; vegetation composition and productivity are expected to respond to such changes. To understand the impacts of climate change on the function of Arctic tundra ecosystems within the global carbon cycle, it is crucial to improve the understanding of vegetation distribution and heterogeneity at multiple scales. Information detailing the fine-scale spatial distribution of tundra communities provided by high resolution vegetation mapping, is needed to understand the relative contributions of and relationships between single vegetation community measurements of greenhouse gas fluxes (e.g., ∼1 m chamber flux) and those encompassing multiple vegetation communities (e.g., ∼300 m eddy covariance measurements). The objectives of this study were: (1) to determine whether dominant Arctic tundra vegetation communities found in different locations are spectrally distinct and distinguishable using field spectroscopy methods; and (2) to test which combination of raw reflectance and vegetation indices retrieved from field and satellite data resulted in accurate vegetation maps and whether these were transferable across locations to develop a systematic method to map dominant vegetation communities within larger eddy covariance tower footprints distributed along a 300 km transect in northern Alaska. We showed vegetation community separability primarily in the 450-510 nm, 630-690 nm and 705-745 nm regions of the spectrum with the field spectroscopy data. This is line with the different traits of these arctic tundra communities, with the drier, often non-vascular plant dominated communities having much higher reflectance in the 450-510 nm and 630-690 nm regions due to the lack of photosynthetic material, whereas the low reflectance values of the vascular plant dominated communities highlight the strong light absorption found here. High classification accuracies of 92% to 96% were achieved using linear discriminant analysis with raw and rescaled spectroscopy reflectance data and derived vegetation indices. However, lower classification accuracies (∼70%) resulted when using the coarser 2.0 m WorldView-2 data inputs. The results from this study suggest that tundra vegetation communities are separable using plot-level spectroscopy with hand-held sensors. These results also show that tundra vegetation mapping can be scaled from the plot level (<1 m) to patch level (<500 m) using spectroscopy data rescaled to match the wavebands of the multispectral satellite remote sensing. We find that developing a consistent method for classification of vegetation communities across the flux tower sites is a challenging process, given the spatial variability in vegetation communities and the need for detailed vegetation survey data for training and validating classification algorithms. This study highlights the benefits of using fine-scale field spectroscopy measurements to obtain tundra vegetation classifications for landscape analyses and use in carbon flux scaling studies. Improved understanding of tundra vegetation distributions will also provide necessary insight into the ecological processes driving plant community assemblages in Arctic environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Near-surface atmospheric Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is a key environmental variable affecting vegetation water stress, evapotranspiration, and atmospheric moisture demand. Although VPD is readily derived from in situ standard weather station measurements, more spatially continuous global observations for regional monitoring of VPD are lacking. Here, we document a new method to estimate daily (both a.m. and p.m.) global land surface VPD at a 25-km resolution using a satellite passive microwave remotely sensed Land Parameter Data Record (LPDR) derived from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) sensors. The AMSR-derived VPD record shows strong correspondence (correlation coefficient ≥ 0.80, p-value < 0.001) and overall good performance (0.48 kPa ≤ Root Mean Square Error ≤ 0.69 kPa) against independent VPD observations from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) data. The estimated AMSR VPD retrieval uncertainties vary with land cover type, satellite observation time, and underlying LPDR data quality. These results provide new satellite capabilities for global mapping and monitoring of land surface VPD dynamics from ongoing AMSR2 operations. Overall good accuracy and similar observations from both AMSR2 and AMSR-E allow for the development of climate data records documenting recent (from 2002) VPD trends and potential impacts on vegetation, land surface evaporation, and energy budgets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]