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During the glacial cycles of the past 800 000 years, Eurasia and North America were periodically covered by large ice sheets, causing up to 100 m of sea-level change. While Late Pleistocene glacial cycles typically lasted 80 000-120 000 years, the termination phases were completed in only 10 000 years. During these glacial terminations, the North American and Eurasian ice sheets retreated, which created large proglacial lakes in front of the ice-sheet margin. Proglacial lakes accelerate deglaciation as they facilitate the formation of ice shelves at the southern margins of the North American and Eurasian ice sheets. These ice shelves are characterized by basal melting, low surface elevations, and negligible friction at the base. Here, we use an ice-sheet model to quantify the (combined) effects of proglacial lakes on Late Pleistocene glacial terminations by examining their interplay with glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and basal sliding. We find that proglacial lakes accelerate the deglaciation of ice sheets mainly because there is an absence of basal friction underneath ice shelves. If friction underneath grounded ice is applied to floating ice, full deglaciation is postponed by a few millennia, resulting in more ice remaining during interglacial periods and no extensive ice shelves forming. Additionally, the large uncertainty in melt rates underneath lacustrine ice shelves translates to an uncertainty in the timing of the termination of up to a millennium.Proglacial lakes are created by depressions in the landscape that remain after an ice sheet has retreated. The depth, size, and timing of proglacial lakes depend on the rate of bedrock rebound. We find that if bedrock rebounds within a few centuries (rather than a few millennia), the mass loss rate of the ice sheet is substantially reduced. This is because fast bedrock rebound prevents the formation of extensive proglacial lakes. Additionally, a decrease in ice thickness is partly compensated for by faster bed

The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project–Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process-based projections of the ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise over the twenty-first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice-flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high-emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea-level contribution is limited to less than 30 cm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4 m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice-shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1 m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9 m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%–40% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea-level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional ∼10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea-level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi-century projections.

The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The un

Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) has a stabilizing effect on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet by reducing the grounding line migration following ice melt. The timescale and strength of this feedback depends on the spatially varying viscosity of the Earth's mantle. Most studies assume a relatively long and laterally homogenous response time of the bedrock. However, the mantle viscosity is spatially variable, with a high mantle viscosity beneath East Antarctica and a low mantle viscosity beneath West Antarctica. For this study, we have developed a new method to couple a 3D GIA model and an ice sheet model to study the interaction between the solid Earth and the Antarctic ice sheet during the last glacial cycle. With this method, the ice sheet model and GIA model exchange ice thickness and bedrock elevation during a fully coupled transient experiment. The feedback effect is taken into account with a high temporal resolution, where the coupling time steps between the ice sheet and GIA model are 5000 years over the glaciation phase and vary between 500 and 1000 years over the deglaciation phase of the last glacial cycle. During each coupling time step, the bedrock elevation is adjusted at every ice sheet model time step, and the deformation is computed for a linearly changing ice load. We applied the method using the ice sheet model ANICE and a 3D GIA finite element model. We used results from a regional seismic model for Antarctica embedded in the global seismic model SMEAN2 to determine the patterns in the mantle viscosity. The results of simulations over the last glacial cycle show that differences in mantle viscosity of an order of magnitude can lead to differences in the grounding line position up to 700gkm and to differences in ice thickness of the order of 2gkm for the present day near the Ross Embayment. These results underline and quantify the importance of including local GIA feedback effects in ice sheet models when simulating the Antarctic ice sh, Astrodynamics & Space Missions

A major source of uncertainty in future sea level projections is the ocean-driven basal melt of Antarctic ice shelves. While ice sheet models require a kilometre-scale resolution to realistically resolve ice shelf stability and grounding line migration, global or regional 3D ocean models are computationally too expensive to produce basal melt forcing fields at this resolution on long timescales. To bridge this resolution gap, we introduce the 2D numerical model LADDIE (one-layer Antarctic model for dynamical downscaling of ice–ocean exchanges), which allows for the computationally efficient modelling of detailed basal melt fields. The model is open source and can be applied easily to different geometries or different ocean forcings. The aim of this study is threefold: to introduce the model to the community, to demonstrate its application and performance in two use cases, and to describe and interpret new basal melt patterns simulated by this model. The two use cases are the small Crosson–Dotson Ice Shelf in the warm Amundsen Sea region and the large Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf in the cold Weddell Sea. At ice-shelf-wide scales, LADDIE reproduces observed patterns of basal melting and freezing in warm and cold environments without the need to re-tune parameters for individual ice shelves. At scales of 0.5–5 km, which are typically unresolved by 3D ocean models and poorly constrained by observations, LADDIE produces plausible basal melt patterns. Most significantly, the simulated basal melt patterns are physically consistent with the applied ice shelf topography. These patterns are governed by the topographic steering and Coriolis deflection of meltwater flows, two processes that are poorly represented in basal melt parameterisations. The kilometre-scale melt patterns simulated by LADDIE include enhanced melt rates in grounding zones and basal channels and enhanced melt or freezing in shear margins. As these regions are critical for ice shelf stability, we conclude that

The Earth’s surface and interior deform due to a changing load of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) during the last glacial cycle, called Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). This deformation changes the surface height of the ice sheet and indirectly the groundling line position. These changes in surface height and grounding line position influence the evolution of the AIS and consequently, again the load on the Earth’s surface. As a result, GIA operates as a negative feedback loop and could stabilize the evolution of the AIS. This feedback maybe particularly relevant for relatively low viscosities of the mantle in West Antarctica which lead to a relatively fast response time of the bedrock due to changes in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet loading. Most studies capture this process by ignoring lateral variations in the viscosity of the mantle and the stabilizing GIA feedback loop. Here we present a new method to couple an ice sheet model to a GIA model at a variable timestep in the order of a thousand years. Several experiments have been done using different radial and lateral varying rheologies for simulations of the last glacial cycle. It is shown that the effect of including lateral variations and accounting for the stabilizing GIA feedback is up to 80 kilometers for the grounding line position and 400 meters for the ice thickness. The largest differences are observed close to the grounding line of the Ronne ice shelf and at several locations in East Antarctica. The total ice volume of the AIS increases by 0.5 percent over 5000 years when including the 3D GIA feedback loops in the coupled model. These results quantify the local importance of including GIA feedback effects in ice dynamic models when simulating the Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution over the full glacial cycle., Astrodynamics & Space Missions, Physical and Space Geodesy

The accurate quantification of uncertainties in regional sea-level projections is essential for guiding policy makers. As climate models do not currently simulate total sea level, these uncertainties must be quantified through summation of uncertainties in individual sea-level components. This summation depends on the correlation between the components, which has previously been prescribed or derived from each individual component's dependence on global mean surface temperature. In this study, we quantify, for the first time, regional correlations between sea-level components based on regional climate change projections. We compute regional sea-level projections consistent with climate projections from an ensemble of 14 Earth System Models. From the multi-model spread, we estimate the uncertainty in the regional climate's response to greenhouse forcing. To quantify the total uncertainty, we add the uncertainty in the response of sea-level components to this regional climate change. This approach reveals how regional climate processes impose correlations between sea-level components, affecting the total uncertainty. One example is an anti-correlation between North Atlantic sterodynamic change and Antarctic dynamic mass loss, suggesting a teleconnection established by the large-scale ocean circulation. We find that prescribed correlations, applied in the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, lead to a global overestimation in the uncertainty in regional sea-level projections on the order of 20%. Regionally, this overestimation exceeds 100%. We conclude that accurate uncertainty estimates of regional sea-level change must be based on projections of regional climate change and cannot be derived from global indicators such as global mean surface temperature., SCOPUS: ar.j, DecretOANoAutActif, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2–8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Improving our confidence in future projections of sea-level rise requires models that can simulate ice-sheet evolution both in the future and in the geological past. A physically accurate treatment of large changes in ice-sheet geometry requires a proper treatment of processes near the margin, like grounding line dynamics, which in turn requires a high spatial resolution in that specific region, so that small-scale topographical features are resolved. This leads to a demand for computationally efficient models, where such a high resolution can be feasibly applied in simulations of 105-107 years in duration. Here, we present and evaluate a new ice-sheet model that solves the hybrid SIA-SSA approximation of the stress balance, including a heuristic rule for the groundingline flux. This is done on a dynamic adaptive mesh which is adapted to the modelled ice-sheet geometry during a simulation. Mesh resolution can be configured to be fine only at specified areas, such as the calving front or the grounding line, as well as specified point locations such as ice-core drill sites. This strongly reduces the number of grid points where the equations need to be solved, increasing the computational efficiency. A high resolution allows the model to resolve small geometrical features, such as outlet glaciers and sub-shelf pinning points, which can significantly affect large-scale ice-sheet dynamics. We show that the model reproduces the analytical solutions or model intercomparison benchmarks for a number of schematic ice-sheet configurations, indicating that the numerical approach is valid. Because of the unstructured triangular mesh, the number of vertices increases less rapidly with resolution than in a squaregrid model, greatly reducing the required computation time for high resolutions. A simulation of all four continental ice sheets during an entire 120 kyr glacial cycle, with a 4 km resolution near the grounding line, is expected to take 100- 200 wall clock hours on a 16-co, SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response function

Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their ‘buttressing’ effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the ‘end-member’ scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.

Estimating the contribution of marine ice sheets to sea-level rise is complicated by ice grounded below sea level that is replaced by ocean water when melted. The common approach is to only consider the ice volume above floatation, defined as the volume of ice to be removed from an ice column to become afloat. With isostatic adjustment of the bedrock and external sea-level forcing that is not a result of mass changes of the ice sheet under consideration, this approach breaks down, because ice volume above floatation can be modified without actual changes in the sea-level contribution. We discuss a consistent and generalised approach for estimating the sea-level contribution from marine ice sheets., info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Glacier mass loss is recognized as a major contributor to current sea level rise. However, large uncertainties remain in projections of glacier mass loss on global and regional scales. We present an ensemble of 288 glacier mass and area change projections for the 21st century based on 11 glacier models using up to 10 general circulation models and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as boundary conditions. We partition the total uncertainty into the individual contributions caused by glacier models, general circulation models, RCPs, and natural variability. We find that emission scenario uncertainty is growing throughout the 21st century and is the largest source of uncertainty by 2100. The relative importance of glacier model uncertainty decreases over time, but it is the greatest source of uncertainty until the middle of this century. The projection uncertainty associated with natural variability is small on the global scale but can be large on regional scales. The projected global mass loss by 2100 relative to 2015 (79 ± 56 mm sea level equivalent for RCP2.6, 159 ± 86 mm sea level equivalent for RCP8.5) is lower than, but well within, the uncertainty range of previous projections., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global meansea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arcticcontinues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increasedsurface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat ofmarine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble ofGreenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset ofthe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level risecontributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of theIce Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate thesea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climateforcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the twogreenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The resultsindicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in bothscenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largestmass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed bysurface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today.Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced controlexperiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. massloss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcingremained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertaintyexplains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty andocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm,respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, thelargest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding andimplementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheetwith the ocean., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Projection of the contribution of ice sheets to sea level change as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) takes the form of simulations from coupled ice sheet-climate models and stand-alone ice sheet models, overseen by the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). This paper describes the experimental setup for process-based sea level change projections to be performed with stand-alone Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet models in the context of ISMIP6. The ISMIP6 protocol relies on a suite of polar atmospheric and oceanic CMIP-based forcing for ice sheet models, in order to explore the uncertainty in projected sea level change due to future emissions scenarios, CMIP models, ice sheet models, and parameterizations for ice-ocean interactions. We describe here the approach taken for defining the suite of ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, document the experimental framework and implementation, and present an overview of the ISMIP6 forcing to be used by participating ice sheet modeling groups., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Future sea-level change projections with process-based stand-alone ice sheet models are typically driven with surface mass balance (SMB) forcing derived from climate models. In this work we address the problems arising from a mismatch of the modelled ice sheet geometry with the geometry used by the climate model. We present a method for applying SMB forcing from climate models to a wide range of Greenland ice sheet models with varying and temporally evolving geometries. In order to achieve that, we translate a given SMB anomaly field as a function of absolute location to a function of surface elevation for 25 regional drainage basins, which can then be applied to different modelled ice sheet geometries. The key feature of the approach is the non-locality of this remapping process. The method reproduces the original forcing data closely when remapped to the original geometry. When remapped to different modelled geometries it produces a physically meaningful forcing with smooth and continuous SMB anomalies across basin divides. The method considerably reduces non-physical biases that would arise by applying the SMB anomaly derived for the climate model geometry directly to a large range of modelled ice sheet model geometries., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published