Search

Formation channels of merging compact binaries imprint themselves on the distributions and correlations of their source parameters, but current understanding of this population is hindered by simplified parametric models. We overcome such limitations using PixelPop [Heinzel et al. (2024)]-our Bayesian nonparametric multidimensional population model. We analyze data from the first three LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing runs and make high resolution, minimally modeled measurements of the pairwise distributions of binary black hole masses, redshifts, and spins. We find no evidence that the mass spectrum evolves over redshift and show that such measurements are fundamentally limited by the detector horizon. We find support for correlations of the spin distribution with binary mass ratio and redshift, but at reduced significance compared to overly constraining parametric models. Confident data-driven conclusions about population-level correlations with flexible models like PixelPop will require more informative gravitational-wave catalogs., Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures

The origins of merging compact binaries observed by gravitational-wave detectors remains highly uncertain. Several astrophysical channels may contribute to the overall merger rate, with distinct formation processes imprinted on the structure and correlations in the underlying distributions of binary source parameters. In the absence of confident theoretical models, the current understanding of this population mostly relies on simple parametric models that make strong assumptions and are prone to misspecification. Recent work has made progress using more flexible nonparametric models, but detailed measurement of the multidimensional population remains challenging. In pursuit of this, we present PixelPop-a high resolution Bayesian nonparametric model to infer joint distributions and parameter correlations with minimal assumptions. PixelPop densely bins the joint parameter space and directly infers the merger rate in each bin, assuming only that bins are coupled to their nearest neighbors. We demonstrate this method on mock populations with and without bivariate source correlations, employing several statistical metrics for information gain and correlation significance to quantify our nonparametric results. We show that PixelPop correctly recovers the true populations within posterior uncertainties and offers a conservative assessment of population-level features and parameter correlations. Its flexibility and tractability make it a useful data-driven tool to probe gravitational-wave populations in multiple dimensions., Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures

The ground-based gravitational wave (GW) detectors LIGO and Virgo have enabled the birth of multi-messenger GW astronomy via the detection of GWs from merging stellar-mass black holes (BHs) and neutron stars (NSs). GW170817, the first binary NS merger detected in GWs and all bands of the electromagnetic spectrum, is an outstanding example of the impact that GW discoveries can have on multi-messenger astronomy. Yet, GW170817 is only one of the many and varied multi-messenger sources that can be unveiled using ground-based GW detectors. In this contribution, we summarize key open questions in the astrophysics of stellar-mass BHs and NSs that can be answered using current and future-generation ground-based GW detectors, and highlight the potential for new multi-messenger discoveries ahead., Comment: Review submitted to the Frontiers Research Topic "The Dynamic Universe: Realizing the Potential of Time Domain and Multimessenger Astrophysics"

The astrophysical formation channels of binary black hole systems predict correlations between their mass, spin, and redshift distributions, which can be probed with gravitational-wave observations. Population-level analysis of the latest LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA catalog of binary black hole mergers has identified evidence for such correlations assuming linear evolution of the mean and width of the effective spin distribution as a function of the binary mass ratio and merger redshift. However, the complex astrophysical processes at play in compact binary formation do not necessarily predict linear relationships between the distributions of these parameters. In this work, we relax the assumption of linearity and instead search for correlations using a more flexible cubic spline model. Our results suggest a nonlinear correlation between the width of the effective spin distribution and redshift. We also show that the LIGO-Virgo-Kagra collaborations may find convincing Bayesian evidence for nonlinear correlations by the end of the fourth observing run, O4. This highlights the valuable role of flexible models in population analyses of compact-object binaries in the era of growing catalogs., Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures

Tests of general relativity with gravitational wave observations from merging compact binaries continue to confirm Einstein's theory of gravity with increasing precision. However, these tests have so far only been applied to signals that were first confidently detected by matched-filter searches assuming general relativity templates. This raises the question of selection biases: what is the largest deviation from general relativity that current searches can detect, and are current constraints on such deviations necessarily narrow because they are based on signals that were detected by templated searches in the first place? In this paper, we estimate the impact of selection effects for tests of the inspiral phase evolution of compact binary signals with a simplified version of the GstLAL search pipeline. We find that selection biases affect the search for very large values of the deviation parameters, much larger than the constraints implied by the detected signals. Therefore, combined population constraints from confidently detected events are mostly unaffected by selection biases, with the largest effect being a broadening at the $\sim10$ % level for the $-1$PN term. These findings suggest that current population constraints on the inspiral phase are robust without factoring in selection biases. Our study does not rule out a disjoint, undetectable binary population with large deviations from general relativity, or stronger selection effects in other tests or search procedures.

Gravitational-wave observations by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) and Virgo have provided us a new tool to explore the Universe on all scales from nuclear physics to the cosmos and have the massive potential to further impact fundamental physics, astrophysics, and cosmology for decades to come. In this paper we have studied the science capabilities of a network of LIGO detectors when they reach their best possible sensitivity, called A#, given the infrastructure in which they exist and a new generation of observatories that are factor of 10 to 100 times more sensitive (depending on the frequency), in particular a pair of L-shaped Cosmic Explorer observatories (one 40 km and one 20 km arm length) in the US and the triangular Einstein Telescope with 10 km arms in Europe. The presence of one or two A# observatories in a network containing two or one next generation observatories, respectively, will provide good localization capabilities for facilitating multimessenger astronomy and precision measurement of the Hubble parameter. Two Cosmic Explorer observatories are indispensable for achieving precise localization of binary neutron star events, facilitating detection of electromagnetic counterparts and transforming multimessenger astronomy. Their combined operation is even more important in the detection and localization of high-redshift sources, such as binary neutron stars, beyond the star-formation peak, and primordial black hole mergers, which may occur roughly 100 million years after the Big Bang. The addition of the Einstein Telescope to a network of two Cosmic Explorer observatories is critical for accomplishing all the identified science metrics. For most metrics the triple network of next generation terrestrial observatories are a factor 100 better than what can be accomplished by a network of three A# observatories., Comment: 48 pages, 20 figures, 14 tables

One of the goals of gravitational-wave astrophysics is to infer the number and properties of the formation channels of binary black holes (BBHs); to do so, one must be able to connect various models with the data. We explore benefits and potential issues with analyses using models informed by population synthesis. We consider 5 possible formation channels of BBHs, as in Zevin et al. (2021b). First, we confirm with the GWTC-3 catalog what Zevin et al. (2021b) found in the GWTC-2 catalog, i.e. that the data are not consistent with the totality of observed BBHs forming in any single channel. Next, using simulated detections, we show that the uncertainties in the estimation of the branching ratios can shrink by up to a factor of $\sim 1.7$ as the catalog size increases from $50$ to $250$, within the expected number of BBH detections in LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA's fourth observing run. Finally, we show that this type of analysis is prone to significant biases. By simulating universes where all sources originate from a single channel, we show that the influence of the Bayesian prior can make it challenging to conclude that one channel produces all signals. Furthermore, by simulating universes where all 5 channels contribute but only a subset of channels are used in the analysis, we show that biases in the branching ratios can be as large as $\sim 50\%$ with $250$ detections. This suggests that caution should be used when interpreting the results of analyses based on strongly modeled astrophysical sub-populations., Comment: 24 pages, 14 figures, comments are welcome

Compact-object binary mergers consisting of one neutron star and one black hole (NSBHs) have long been considered promising progenitors for gamma-ray bursts, whose central engine remains poorly understood. Using gravitational-wave constraints on the population-level NSBH mass and spin distributions we find that at most $20~\mathrm{Gpc}^{-3}\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$ of gamma-ray bursts in the local universe can have NSBH progenitors., Comment: Submitted to RNAAS

Gravitational-wave astronomy has revolutionized humanity's view of the universe, a revolution driven by observations that no other field can make. This white paper describes an observatory that builds on decades of investment by the National Science Foundation and that will drive discovery for decades to come: Cosmic Explorer. Major discoveries in astronomy are driven by three related improvements: better sensitivity, higher precision, and opening new observational windows. Cosmic Explorer promises all three and will deliver an order-of-magnitude greater sensitivity than LIGO. Cosmic Explorer will push the gravitational-wave frontier to almost the edge of the observable universe using technologies that have been proven by LIGO during its development. With the unprecedented sensitivity that only a new facility can deliver, Cosmic Explorer will make discoveries that cannot yet be anticipated, especially since gravitational waves are both synergistic with electromagnetic observations and can reach into regions of the universe that electromagnetic observations cannot explore. With Cosmic Explorer, scientists can use the universe as a laboratory to test the laws of physics and study the nature of matter. Cosmic Explorer allows the United States to continue its leading role in gravitational-wave science and the international network of next-generation observatories. With its extraordinary discovery potential, Cosmic Explorer will deliver revolutionary observations across astronomy, physics, and cosmology including: Black Holes and Neutron Stars Throughout Cosmic Time, Multi-Messenger Astrophysics and Dynamics of Dense Matter, New Probes of Extreme Astrophysics, Fundamental Physics and Precision Cosmology, Dark Matter and the Early Universe.

The detection of a sub-solar mass black hole could yield dramatic new insights into the nature of dark matter and early-Universe physics, as such objects lack a traditional astrophysical formation mechanism. Gravitational waves allow for the direct measurement of compact object masses during binary mergers, and we expect the gravitational-wave signal from a low-mass coalescence to remain within the LIGO frequency band for thousands of seconds. However, it is unclear whether one can confidently measure the properties of a sub-solar mass compact object and distinguish between a sub-solar mass black hole or other exotic objects. To this end, we perform Bayesian parameter estimation on simulated gravitational-wave signals from sub-solar mass black hole mergers to explore the measurability of their source properties. We find that the LIGO/Virgo detectors during the O4 observing run would be able to confidently identify sub-solar component masses at the threshold of detectability; these events would also be well-localized on the sky and may reveal some information on their binary spin geometry. Further, next-generation detectors such as Cosmic Explorer and the Einstein Telescope will allow for precision measurement of the properties of sub-solar mass mergers and tighter constraints on their compact-object nature., Comment: 38 pages, 19 figures, to be submitted to JCAP

The global network of interferometric gravitational wave (GW) observatories (LIGO, Virgo, KAGRA) has detected and characterized nearly 100 mergers of binary compact objects. However, many more real GWs are lurking sub-threshold, which need to be sifted from terrestrial-origin noise triggers (known as glitches). Because glitches are not due to astrophysical phenomena, inference on the glitch under the assumption it has an astrophysical source (e.g. binary black hole coalescence) results in source parameters that are inconsistent with what is known about the astrophysical population. In this work, we show how one can extract unbiased population constraints from a catalog of both real GW events and glitch contaminants by performing Bayesian inference on their source populations simultaneously. In this paper, we assume glitches come from a specific class with a well-characterized effective population (blip glitches). We also calculate posteriors on the probability of each event in the catalog belonging to the astrophysical or glitch class, and obtain posteriors on the number of astrophysical events in the catalog, finding it to be consistent with the actual number of events included., Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures

Since the release of the 2015 Long Range Plan in Nuclear Physics, major events have occurred that reshaped our understanding of quantum chromodynamics (QCD) and nuclear matter at large densities, in and out of equilibrium. The US nuclear community has an opportunity to capitalize on advances in astrophysical observations and nuclear experiments and engage in an interdisciplinary effort in the theory of dense baryonic matter that connects low- and high-energy nuclear physics, astrophysics, gravitational waves physics, and data science, Comment: 70 pages, 3 figures, White Paper for the Long Range Plan for Nuclear Science

Primordial black holes (PBHs) may form from the collapse of matter overdensities shortly after the Big Bang. One may identify their existence by observing gravitational wave (GW) emissions from merging PBH binaries at high redshifts $z\gtrsim 30$, where astrophysical binary black holes (BBHs) are unlikely to merge. The next-generation ground-based GW detectors, Cosmic Explorer and Einstein Telescope, will be able to observe BBHs with total masses of $\mathcal{O}(10-100)~M_{\odot}$ at such redshifts. This paper serves as a companion paper of arXiv:2108.07276, focusing on the effect of higher-order modes (HoMs) in the waveform modeling, which may be detectable for these high redshift BBHs, on the estimation of source parameters. We perform Bayesian parameter estimation to obtain the measurement uncertainties with and without HoM modeling in the waveform for sources with different total masses, mass ratios, orbital inclinations and redshifts observed by a network of next-generation GW detectors. We show that including HoMs in the waveform model reduces the uncertainties of redshifts and masses by up to a factor of two, depending on the exact source parameters. We then discuss the implications for identifying PBHs with the improved single-event measurements, and expand the investigation of the model dependence of the relative abundance between the BBH mergers originating from the first stars and the primordial BBH mergers as shown in arXiv:2108.07276., Comment: 11 pages, 11 figures

While much has been learned about black holes by analyzing the latest LVK catalog, GWTC-3, a measurement of the astrophysical distribution of the black hole spin orientations remains elusive. This is usually probed by measuring the cosine of the tilt angle ($\cos\tau$) between each black hole spin and the orbital angular momentum, $\cos\tau=+1$ being perfect alignment. Abbott et al. has modeled the $\cos\tau$ distribution as a mixture of an isotropic component and a Gaussian component with mean fixed at +1 and width measured from the data. We want to verify if the data require the existence of such a peak at $\cos\tau=+1$. We use various alternative models for the astrophysical tilt distribution and measure their parameters using the LVK GWTC-3 catalog. We find that a) Augmenting the LVK model such that the mean $\mu$ of the Gaussian is not fixed at +1 returns results that strongly depend on priors. If we allow $\mu>+1$ then the resulting astrophysical $\cos\tau$ distribution peaks at +1 and looks linear, rather than Gaussian. If we constrain $-1\leq \mu\leq+1$ the Gaussian component peaks at $\mu=0.48^{+0.46}_{-0.99}$ (median and 90% symmetric credible interval). Two other 2-component mixture models yield $\cos\tau$ distributions that either have a broad peak centered at $0.19^{+0.22}_{-0.18}$ or a plateau that spans the range [-0.5, +1], without a clear peak at +1. b) All of the models we considered agree on the fact that there is no excess of black hole tilts at around -1. c) While yielding quite different posteriors, the models considered in this work have Bayesian evidences that are the same within error bars. We conclude that the current dataset is not sufficiently informative to draw any model-independent conclusions on the astrophysical distribution of spin tilts, except that there is no excess of spins with negatively aligned tilts., Comment: 6 pages body + 10 pages appendices. Following Ref suggestion, now includes differential rate plots per unit costilt. Data release on Zenodo linked from Data availability section. Note: the abstract in the metadata is shorter than the paper's due to Arxiv restriction to 1920 characters

Neutron star-black hole (NSBH) mergers detected in gravitational waves have the potential to shed light on supernova physics, the dense matter equation of state, and the astrophysical processes that power their potential electromagnetic counterparts. We use the population of four candidate NSBH events detected in gravitational waves so far with a false alarm rate $\leq 1~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$ to constrain the mass and spin distributions and multimessenger prospects of these systems. We find that the black holes in NSBHs are both less massive and have smaller dimensionless spins than those in black hole binaries. We also find evidence for a mass gap between the most massive neutron stars and least massive black holes in NSBHs at 98.6% credibility. Using an approach driven by gravitational-wave data rather than binary simulations, we find that fewer than 14% of NSBH mergers detectable in gravitational waves will have an electromagnetic counterpart. While the inferred presence of a mass gap and fraction of sources with a counterpart depend on the event selection and prior knowledge of source classification, the conclusion that the black holes in NSBHs have lower masses and smaller spin parameters than those in black hole binaries is robust. Finally, we propose a method for the multimessenger analysis of NSBH mergers based on the nondetection of an electromagnetic counterpart and conclude that, even in the most optimistic case, the constraints on the neutron star equation of state that can be obtained with multimessenger NSBH detections are not competitive with those from gravitational-wave measurements of tides in binary neutron star mergers and radio and X-ray pulsar observations., Comment: 13 pages, 9 figures, Data release URL in paper; matches published version

The possible existence of primordial black holes in the stellar mass window has received considerable attention because their mergers may contribute to current and future gravitational-wave detections. Primordial black hole mergers, together with mergers of black holes originating from Population~III stars, are expected to dominate at high redshifts ($z\gtrsim 10$). However the primordial black hole merger rate density is expected to rise monotonically with redshift, while Population~III mergers can only occur after the birth of the first stars. Next-generation gravitational-wave detectors such as Cosmic Explorer~(CE) and Einstein Telescope~(ET) can access this distinctive feature in the merger rates as functions of redshift, allowing for a direct measurement of the abundance of the two populations, and hence for robust constraints on the abundance of primordial black holes. We simulate four-months worth of data observed by a CE-ET detector network and perform hierarchical Bayesian analysis to recover the merger rate densities. We find that if the Universe has no primordial black holes with masses of $\mathcal{O}(10M_{\odot})$, the projected upper limit on their abundance $f_{\rm PBH}$ as a fraction of dark matter energy density may be as low as $f_{\rm PBH}\sim \mathcal{O}({10^{-5}})$, about two orders of magnitude lower than current upper limits in this mass range. If instead $f_{\rm PBH}\gtrsim 10^{-4}$, future gravitational wave observations would exclude $f_{\rm PBH}=0$ at the 95\% credible interval., Comment: 8 pages (2 pages of appendices), 5 figures

Gravitational-wave (GW) detections of electromagnetically bright compact binary coalescences can provide an independent measurement of the Hubble constant $H_0$. In order to obtain a measurement that could help arbitrating the existing tension on $H_0$, one needs to fully understand any source of systematic biases for this approach. In this study, we aim at understanding the impact of instrumental calibration errors (CEs) and uncertainties on luminosity distance measurements, $D_L$, and the inferred $H_0$ results. We simulate binary neutron star mergers (BNSs), as detected by a network of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo interferometers at their design sensitivity. We artificially add CEs equal to exceptionally large values experienced in LIGO-Virgo's third observing run (O3). We find that for individual BNSs at a network signal-to-noise ratio of 50, the systematic errors on $D_L$ - and hence $H_0$ - are still smaller than the statistical uncertainties. The biases become more significant when we combine multiple events to obtain a joint posterior on $H_0$. In the rather unrealistic case that the data around each detection is affected by the same CEs corresponding to the worst offender of O3, the true $H_0$ value would be excluded from the 90% credible interval after $\sim40$ sources. If instead 10% of the sources suffer from severe CEs, the true value of $H_0$ is included in the 90% credible interval even after we combine 100 sources., Comment: 12 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables

The population-level distributions of the masses, spins, and redshifts of binary black holes (BBHs) observed using gravitational waves can shed light on how these systems form and evolve. Because of the complex astrophysical processes shaping the inferred BBH population, models allowing for correlations among these parameters will be necessary to fully characterize these sources. We hierarchically analyze the BBH population detected by LIGO and Virgo with a model allowing for correlations between the effective aligned spin and the primary mass and redshift. We find that the width of the effective spin distribution grows with redshift at 98.6% credibility. We determine this trend to be robust under the application of several alternative models and additionally verify that such a correlation is unlikely to be spuriously introduced using a simulated population. We discuss the possibility that this correlation could be due to a change in the natal black hole spin distribution with redshift., Comment: Matches published version

It is expected that the orbital planes of gravitational-wave (GW) sources are isotropically distributed. However, both physical and technical factors, such as alternate theories of gravity with birefringence, catalog contamination, and search algorithm limitations, could result in inferring a non-isotropic distribution. Showing that the inferred astrophysical distribution of the orbital orientations is indeed isotropic can thus be used to rule out some violations of general relativity, as a null test about the purity of the GW catalog sample, and as a check that selection effects are being properly accounted for. We augment the default mass/spins/redshift model used by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration in their most recent analysis to also measure the astrophysical distribution of orbital orientations. We show that the 69 binary black holes in GWTC-3 are consistent with having random orbital orientations. The inferred distribution is highly symmetric around $\pi/2$, with skewness $\mathcal{S}_{\rm{post}}=0.01^{+0.17}_{-0.17}$. Meanwhile, the median of the inferred distribution has a Jensen-Shannon divergence of $1.4\times 10^{-4}$ bits when compared to the expected isotropic distribution., Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, a lot of fun

The last decade has brought about a profound transformation in multimessenger science. Ten years ago, facilities had been built or were under construction that would eventually discover the nature of objects in our universe could be detected through multiple messengers. Nonetheless, multimessenger science was hardly more than a dream. The rewards for our foresight were finally realized through IceCube's discovery of the diffuse astrophysical neutrino flux, the first observation of gravitational waves by LIGO, and the first joint detections in gravitational waves and photons and in neutrinos and photons. Today we live in the dawn of the multimessenger era. The successes of the multimessenger campaigns of the last decade have pushed multimessenger science to the forefront of priority science areas in both the particle physics and the astrophysics communities. Multimessenger science provides new methods of testing fundamental theories about the nature of matter and energy, particularly in conditions that are not reproducible on Earth. This white paper will present the science and facilities that will provide opportunities for the particle physics community renew its commitment and maintain its leadership in multimessenger science., Comment: 174 pages, 12 figures. Contribution to Snowmass 2021. Solicited white paper from CF07. Comments and endorsers welcome. Still accepting contributions (contact editors)

The next generation of gravitational-wave observatories can explore a wide range of fundamental physics phenomena throughout the history of the universe. These phenomena include access to the universe's binary black hole population throughout cosmic time, to the universe's expansion history independent of the cosmic distance ladders, to stochastic gravitational-waves from early-universe phase transitions, to warped space-time in the strong-field and high-velocity limit, to the equation of state of nuclear matter at neutron star and post-merger densities, and to dark matter candidates through their interaction in extreme astrophysical environments or their interaction with the detector itself. We present the gravitational-wave detector concepts than can drive the future of gravitational-wave astrophysics. We summarize the status of the necessary technology, and the research needed to be able to build these observatories in the 2030s., Comment: 31 pages, 5 figures, contribution to Snowmass 2021

Exploring dark matter via observations of extreme astrophysical environments -- defined here as heavy compact objects such as white dwarfs, neutron stars, and black holes, as well as supernovae and compact object merger events -- has been a major field of growth since the last Snowmass process. Theoretical work has highlighted the utility of current and near-future observatories to constrain novel dark matter parameter space across the full mass range. This includes gravitational wave instruments and observatories spanning the electromagnetic spectrum, from radio to gamma-rays. While recent searches already provide leading sensitivity to various dark matter models, this work also highlights the need for theoretical astrophysics research to better constrain the properties of these extreme astrophysical systems. The unique potential of these search signatures to probe dark matter adds motivation to proposed next-generation astronomical and gravitational wave instruments., Comment: Contribution to Snowmass 2021 -- CF3. Dark Matter: Cosmic Probes

The final black hole left behind after a binary black hole merger can attain a recoil velocity, or a "kick", reaching values up to 5000 km/s. This phenomenon has important implications for gravitational wave astronomy, black hole formation scenarios, testing general relativity, and galaxy evolution. We consider the gravitational wave signal from the binary black hole merger GW200129_065458 (henceforth referred to as GW200129), which has been shown to exhibit strong evidence of orbital precession. Using numerical relativity surrogate models, we constrain the kick velocity of GW200129 to $v_f \sim 1542^{+747}_{-1098}$ km/s or $v_f \gtrsim 698$ km/s (one-sided limit), at 90\% credibility. This marks the first identification of a large kick velocity for an individual gravitational wave event. Given the kick velocity of GW200129, we estimate that there is a less than $0.48\%$ ($7.7\%$) probability that the remnant black hole after the merger would be retained by globular (nuclear star) clusters. Finally, we show that kick effects are not expected to cause biases in ringdown tests of general relativity for this event, although this may change in the future with improved detectors., Comment: 5 pages. Visualizations available at https://vijayvarma392.github.io/GW200129. Matches published version

The binary neutron star (BNS) mass distribution measured with gravitational-wave observations has the potential to reveal information about the dense matter equation of state, supernova physics, the expansion rate of the universe, and tests of General Relativity. As most current gravitational-wave analyses measuring the BNS mass distribution do not simultaneously fit the spin distribution, the implied population-level spin distribution is the same as the spin prior applied when analyzing individual sources. In this work, we demonstrate that introducing a mismatch between the implied and true BNS spin distributions can lead to biases in the inferred mass distribution. This is due to the strong correlations between the measurements of the mass ratio and spin components aligned with the orbital angular momentum for individual sources. We find that applying a low-spin prior which excludes the true spin magnitudes of some sources in the population leads to significantly overestimating the maximum neutron star mass and underestimating the minimum neutron star mass at the population level with as few as six BNS detections. The safest choice of spin prior that does not lead to biases in the inferred mass distribution is one which allows for high spin magnitudes and tilts misaligned with the orbital angular momentum., Comment: version accepted by journal

The next generation of ground-based gravitational-wave detectors will observe coalescences of black holes and neutron stars throughout the cosmos, thousands of them with exceptional fidelity. The Science Book is the result of a 3-year effort to study the science capabilities of networks of next generation detectors. Such networks would make it possible to address unsolved problems in numerous areas of physics and astronomy, from Cosmology to Beyond the Standard Model of particle physics, and how they could provide insights into workings of strongly gravitating systems, astrophysics of compact objects and the nature of dense matter. It is inevitable that observatories of such depth and finesse will make new discoveries inaccessible to other windows of observation. In addition to laying out the rich science potential of the next generation of detectors, this report provides specific science targets in five different areas in physics and astronomy and the sensitivity requirements to accomplish those science goals. This report is the second in a six part series of reports by the GWIC 3G Subcommittee: i) Expanding the Reach of Gravitational Wave Observatories to the Edge of the Universe, ii) The Next Generation Global Gravitational Wave Observatory: The Science Book (this report), iii) 3G R&D: R&D for the Next Generation of Ground-based Gravitational Wave Detectors, iv) Gravitational Wave Data Analysis: Computing Challenges in the 3G Era, v) Future Ground-based Gravitational-wave Observatories: Synergies with Other Scientific Communities, and vi) An Exploration of Possible Governance Models for the Future Global Gravitational-Wave Observatory Network., Comment: 69 pages, 18 figures

The Wide-Field Infrared Transient Explorer (WINTER) is a new 1 $\text{deg}^2$ seeing-limited time-domain survey instrument designed for dedicated near-infrared follow-up of kilonovae from binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star-black hole mergers. WINTER will observe in the near-infrared Y, J, and short-H bands (0.9-1.7 microns, to $\text{J}_{AB}=21$ magnitudes) on a dedicated 1-meter telescope at Palomar Observatory. To date, most prompt kilonova follow-up has been in optical wavelengths; however, near-infrared emission fades more slowly and depends less on geometry and viewing angle than optical emission. We present an end-to-end simulation of a follow-up campaign during the fourth observing run (O4) of the LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA interferometers, including simulating 625 BNS mergers, their detection in gravitational waves, low-latency and full parameter estimation skymaps, and a suite of kilonova lightcurves from two different model grids. We predict up to five new kilonovae independently discovered by WINTER during O4, given a realistic BNS merger rate. Using a larger grid of kilonova parameters, we find that kilonova emission is $\approx$2 times longer-lived and red kilonovae are detected $\approx$1.5 times further in the infrared than in the optical. For 90% localization areas smaller than 150 (450) $\rm{deg}^{2}$, WINTER will be sensitive to more than 10% of the kilonova model grid out to 350 (200) Mpc. We develop a generalized toolkit to create an optimal BNS follow-up strategy with any electromagnetic telescope and present WINTER's observing strategy with this framework. This toolkit, all simulated gravitational-wave events, and skymaps are made available for use by the community., Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, published in ApJ

This Horizon Study describes a next-generation ground-based gravitational-wave observatory: Cosmic Explorer. With ten times the sensitivity of Advanced LIGO, Cosmic Explorer will push gravitational-wave astronomy towards the edge of the observable universe ($z \sim 100$). The goals of this Horizon Study are to describe and evaluate design concepts for Cosmic Explorer; to plan for the United States' leadership in gravitational-wave astronomy; and to envisage the role of Cosmic Explorer in the international effort to build a "Third-Generation" (3G) observatory network that will make discoveries transformative across astronomy, physics, and cosmology., Comment: 173 pages

The existence of primordial black holes (PBHs), which may form from the collapse of matter overdensities shortly after the Big Bang, is still under debate. Among the potential signatures of PBHs are gravitational waves (GWs) emitted from binary black hole (BBH) mergers at redshifts $z\gtrsim 30$, where the formation of astrophysical black holes is unlikely. Future ground-based GW detectors, Cosmic Explorer and Einstein Telescope, will be able to observe equal-mass BBH mergers with total mass of $\mathcal{O}(10-100)~M_{\odot}$ at such distances. In this work, we investigate whether the redshift measurement of a single BBH source can be precise enough to establish its primordial origin. We simulate BBHs of different masses, mass ratios and orbital orientations. We show that for BBHs with total masses between $20~M_{\odot}$ and $40~M_{\odot}$ merging at $z \geq 40$ one can infer $z>30$ at up to 97\% credibility, with a network of one Einstein Telescope, one 40-km Cosmic Explorer in the US and one 20-km Cosmic Explorer in Australia. A smaller network made of one Einstein Telescope and one 40-km Cosmic Explorer in the US measures $z>30$ at larger than 90\% credibility for roughly half of the sources than the larger network. We then assess the dependence of this result on the Bayesian redshift priors used for the analysis, specifically on the relative abundance of the BBH mergers originated from the first stars, and the primordial BBH mergers., Comment: 4.5 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables. Supplementary materials with 1 figure and 1 table. Submitted to PRL

Binary black hole spin measurements from gravitational wave observations can reveal the binary's evolutionary history. In particular, the spin orientations of the component black holes within the orbital plane, $\phi_1$ and $\phi_2$, can be used to identify binaries caught in the so-called spin-orbit resonances. In a companion paper, we demonstrate that $\phi_1$ and $\phi_2$ are best measured near the merger of the two black holes. In this work, we use these spin measurements to provide the first constraints on the full six-dimensional spin distribution of merging binary black holes. In particular, we find that there is a preference for $\Delta \phi = \phi_1 - \phi_2 \sim \pm \pi$ in the population, which can be a signature of spin-orbit resonances. We also find a preference for $\phi_1 \sim -\pi/4$ with respect to the line of separation near merger, which has not been predicted for any astrophysical formation channel. However, the strength of these preferences depends on our prior choices, and we are unable to constrain the widths of the $\phi_1$ and $\Delta \phi$ distributions. Therefore, more observations are necessary to confirm the features we find. Finally, we derive constraints on the distribution of recoil kicks in the population, and use this to estimate the fraction of merger remnants retained by globular and nuclear star clusters. We make our spin and kick population constraints publicly available., Comment: 5 pages plus supplement. Matches PRL version. Results available publicly at https://github.com/vijayvarma392/spin_kick_pop_GWTC2

Binary black hole spins are among the key observables for gravitational wave astronomy. Among the spin parameters, their orientations within the orbital plane, $\phi_1$, $\phi_2$ and $\Delta \phi=\phi_1-\phi_2$, are critical for understanding the prevalence of the spin-orbit resonances and merger recoils in binary black holes. Unfortunately, these angles are particularly hard to measure using current detectors, LIGO and Virgo. Because the spin directions are not constant for precessing binaries, the traditional approach is to measure the spin components at some reference stage in the waveform evolution, typically the point at which the frequency of the detected signal reaches 20 Hz. However, we find that this is a poor choice for the orbital-plane spin angle measurements. Instead, we propose measuring the spins at a fixed dimensionless time or frequency near the merger. This leads to significantly improved measurements for $\phi_1$ and $\phi_2$ for several gravitational wave events. Furthermore, using numerical relativity injections, we demonstrate that $\Delta \phi$ will also be better measured near the merger for louder signals expected in the future. Finally, we show that numerical relativity surrogate models are key for reliably measuring the orbital-plane spin orientations, even at moderate signal-to-noise ratios like $\sim 30-45$., Comment: 15 pages plus appendix. Matches PRD version

The origin of the heavy elements in the Universe is not fully determined. Neutron star-black hole (NSBH) and {binary neutron star} (BNS) mergers may both produce heavy elements via rapid neutron-capture (r-process). We use the recent detection of gravitational waves from NSBHs, improved measurements of the neutron star equation-of-state, and the most modern numerical simulations of ejected material from binary collisions to measure the relative contribution of NSBHs and BNSs to the production of heavy elements. As the amount of r-process ejecta depends on the mass and spin distribution of the compact objects, as well as on the equation-of-state of the neutron stars, we consider various models for these quantities, informed by gravitational-wave and pulsar data. We find that in most scenarios, BNSs have produced more r-process elements than NSBHs over the past 2.5 billion years. If black holes have preferentially small spins, BNSs can produce at least twice of the amount of r-process elements than NSBHs. If black hole spins are small and there is a dearth of low mass ($<5M_{\odot}$) black holes within NSBH binaries, BNSs can account for the near totality of the r-process elements from binaries. For NSBH to produce large fraction of r-process elements, black holes in NSBHs must have small masses and large aligned spins, which is disfavored by current data., Comment: Accepted version by The Astrophysical Journal Letters

An accurate and precise measurement of the spins of individual merging black holes is required to understand their origin. While previous studies have indicated that most of the spin information comes from the inspiral part of the signal, the informative spin measurement of the heavy binary black hole system GW190521 suggests that the merger and ringdown can contribute significantly to the spin constraints for such massive systems. We perform a systematic study into the measurability of the spin parameters of individual heavy binary black hole mergers using a numerical relativity surrogate waveform model including the effects of both spin-induced precession and higher-order modes. We find that the spin measurements are driven by the merger and ringdown parts of the signal for GW190521-like systems, but the uncertainty in the measurement increases with the total mass of the system. We are able to place meaningful constraints on the spin parameters even for systems observed at moderate signal-to-noise ratios, but the measurability depends on the exact six-dimensional spin configuration of the system. Finally, we find that the azimuthal angle between the in-plane projections of the component spin vectors at a given reference frequency cannot be well-measured for most of our simulated configurations even for signals observed with high signal-to-noise ratios., Comment: Version accepted in PRD

Hierarchical analysis of the binary black hole (BBH) detections by the Advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors has offered an increasingly clear picture of their mass, spin, and redshift distributions. Fully understanding the formation and evolution of BBH mergers will require not just the characterization of these marginal distributions, though, but the discovery of any correlations that exist between the properties of BBHs. Here, we hierarchically analyze the ensemble of BBHs discovered by the LIGO and Virgo with a model that allows for intrinsic correlations between their mass ratios $q$ and effective inspiral spins $\chi_\mathrm{eff}$. At $98.7\%$ credibility, we find that the mean of the $\chi_\mathrm{eff}$ distribution varies as a function of $q$, such that more unequal-mass BBHs exhibit systematically larger $\chi_\mathrm{eff}$. We find Bayesian odds ratio of $10.5$ in favor of a model that allows for such a correlation over one that does not. Finally, we use simulated signals to verify that our results are robust against degeneracies in the measurements of $q$ and $\chi_\mathrm{eff}$ for individual events. While many proposed astrophysical formation channels predict some degree correlation between spins and mass ratio, these predicted correlations typically act in an opposite sense to the trend we observationally identify in the data., Comment: Accepted in ApJL. New version includes edits made during production

With several dozen binary black hole events detected by LIGO/Virgo to date and many more expected in the next few years, gravitational-wave astronomy is shifting from individual-event analyses to population studies. Using the GWTC-2 catalog, we perform a hierarchical Bayesian analysis that for the first time combines several state-of-the-art astrophysical formation models with a population of primordial black holes (PBHs) and constrains the fraction of a putative subpopulation of PBHs in the data. We find that this fraction depends significantly on the set of assumed astrophysical models. While a primordial population is statistically favored against certain competitive astrophysical channels, such as globular clusters and nuclear stellar clusters, a dominant contribution from the stable-mass-transfer isolated formation channel drastically reduces the need for PBHs, except for explaining the rate of mass-gap events like GW190521. The tantalizing possibility that black holes formed after inflation are contributing to LIGO/Virgo observations could only be verified by further reducing uncertainties in astrophysical and primordial formation models, and it may ultimately be confirmed by third-generation interferometers., Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures. v3: matching published version

Third-generation (3G) gravitational-wave detectors will observe thousands of coalescing neutron star binaries with unprecedented fidelity. Extracting the highest precision science from these signals is expected to be challenging owing to both high signal-to-noise ratios and long-duration signals. We demonstrate that current Bayesian inference paradigms can be extended to the analysis of binary neutron star signals without breaking the computational bank. We construct reduced order models for $\sim 90\,\mathrm{minute}$ long gravitational-wave signals, covering the observing band ($5-2048\,\mathrm{Hz}$), speeding up inference by a factor of $\sim 1.3\times 10^4$ compared to the calculation times without reduced order models. The reduced order models incorporate key physics including the effects of tidal deformability, amplitude modulation due to the Earth's rotation, and spin-induced orbital precession. We show how reduced order modeling can accelerate inference on data containing multiple, overlapping gravitational-wave signals, and determine the speedup as a function of the number of overlapping signals. Thus, we conclude that Bayesian inference is computationally tractable for the long-lived, overlapping, high signal-to-noise-ratio events present in 3G observatories., Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures. Published in Physical Review Letters

Third-generation (3G) gravitational-wave (GW) detectors will be able to observe binary-black-hole mergers (BBHs) up to redshift of $\sim 30$. This gives unprecedented access to the formation and evolution of BBHs throughout cosmic history. In this paper we consider three sub-populations of BBHs originating from the different evolutionary channels: isolated formation in galactic fields, dynamical formation in globular clusters and mergers of black holes formed from Population III (Pop III) stars at very high redshift. Using input from populations synthesis analyses, we created two months of simulated data of a network of 3G detectors made of two Cosmic Explorers and an Einstein Telescope, consisting of $\sim16000$ field and cluster BBHs as well as $\sim400$ Pop III BBHs. First, we show how one can use non-parametric models to infer the existence and characteristic of a primary and secondary peak in the merger rate distribution. In particular, the location and the height of the secondary peak around $z\approx 12$, arising from the merger of Pop III remnants, can be constrained at $\mathcal{O}(10\%)$ level. Then we perform a modeled analysis, using phenomenological templates for the merger rates of the three sub-population, and extract the branching ratios and the characteristic parameters of the merger rate densities of the individual formation channels. With this modeled method, the uncertainty on the measurement of the fraction of Pop III BBHs can be improved to $\lesssim 10\%$, while the ratio between field and cluster BBHs can be measured with an uncertainty of $\sim 50\%$., Comment: 9 pages of main text & 7 pages of appendices, 11 figures, match publication version

Clouds of ultralight bosons - such as axions - can form around a rapidly spinning black hole, if the black hole radius is comparable to the bosons' wavelength. The cloud rapidly extracts angular momentum from the black hole, and reduces it to a characteristic value that depends on the boson's mass as well as on the black hole mass and spin. Therefore, a measurement of a black hole mass and spin can be used to reveal or exclude the existence of such bosons. Using the black holes released by LIGO and Virgo in their GWTC-2, we perform a simultaneous measurement of the black hole spin distribution at formation and the mass of the scalar boson. We find that the data strongly disfavors the existence of scalar bosons in the mass range between $1.3\times10^{-13}~\mathrm{eV}$ and $2.7\times10^{-13}~\mathrm{eV}$ for a decay constant $f_a\gtrsim 10^{14}~\mathrm{GeV}$. The statistical evidence is mostly driven by the two {binary black holes} systems GW190412 and GW190517, which host rapidly spinning black holes. The region where bosons are excluded narrows down if these two systems merged shortly ($\sim 10^5$ years) after the black holes formed., Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, matched PRL version

Gravitational waves are ripples in spacetime generated by the acceleration of astrophysical objects. A direct consequence of general relativity, they were first directly observed in 2015 by the twin Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) observatories. I review the first five years of gravitational wave detections. More than fifty gravitational waves events have been found, emitted by pairs of merging compact objects such as neutron stars and black holes. These signals yield insights into the formation of compact objects and their progenitor stars, enable stringent tests of general relativity and constrain the behavior of matter at densities higher than an atomic nucleus. Mergers that emit both gravitational and electromagnetic waves probe the formation of short gamma ray bursts, the nucleosynthesis of heavy elements, and measure the local expansion rate of the Universe., Comment: Closely matches version published in Science

The identification of the electromagnetic counterpart candidate ZTF19abanrhr to the binary black hole merger GW190521 opens the possibility to infer cosmological parameters from this standard siren with a uniquely identified host galaxy. The distant merger allows for cosmological inference beyond the Hubble constant. Here we show that the three-dimensional spatial location of ZTF19abanrhr calculated from the electromagnetic data remains consistent with the updated sky localization of GW190521 provided by the LIGO-Virgo Collaboration. If ZTF19abanrhr is associated with the GW190521 merger and assuming a flat wCDM model we find that $H_0 =48^{+24}_{-10}$ km/s/Mpc, $\Omega_m =0.39^{+0.38}_{-0.29}$, and $w_0 = -1.29^{+0.63}_{-0.50}$ (median and 68% credible interval). If we use the Hubble constant value inferred from another gravitational-wave event, GW170817, as a prior for our analysis, together with assumption of a flat ${\Lambda}$CDM and the model-independent constraint on the physical matter density ${\omega}_m$ from Planck, we find $H_0 = 69.1^{8.7}_{-6.0}$ km/s/Mpc., Comment: The data behind figures are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4057311 Published version on MNRAS

The data from ground based gravitational-wave detectors such as Advanced LIGO and Virgo must be calibrated to convert the digital output of photodetectors into a relative displacement of the test masses in the detectors, producing the quantity of interest for inference of astrophysical gravitational wave sources. Both statistical uncertainties and systematic errors are associated with the calibration process, which would in turn affect the analysis of detected sources, if not accounted for. Currently, source characterization algorithms either entirely neglect the possibility of calibration uncertainties or account for them in a way that does not use knowledge of the calibration process itself. We present physiCal, a new approach to account for calibration errors during the source characterization step, which directly uses all the information available about the instrument calibration process. Rather than modeling the overall detector's response function, we consider the individual components that contribute to the response. We implement this method and apply it to the compact binaries detected by LIGO and Virgo during the second observation run, as well as to simulated binary neutron stars for which the sky position and distance are known exactly. We find that the physiCal model performs as well as the method currently used within the LIGO-Virgo collaboration, but additionally it enables improving the measurement of specific components of the instrument control through astrophysical calibration., Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures

Gravitational waves may be one of the few direct observables produced by ultralight bosons, conjectured dark matter candidates that could be the key to several problems in particle theory, high-energy physics and cosmology. These axionlike particles could spontaneously form "clouds" around astrophysical black holes, leading to potent emission of continuous gravitational waves that could be detected by instruments on the ground and in space. Although this scenario has been thoroughly studied, it has not been yet appreciated that both types of detector may be used in tandem (a practice known as "multibanding"). In this paper, we show that future gravitational-wave detectors on the ground and in space will be able to work together to detect ultralight bosons with masses $25 \lesssim \mu/\left(10^{-15}\, \mathrm{eV}\right)\lesssim 500$. In detecting binary-black-hole inspirals, the LISA space mission will provide crucial information enabling future ground-based detectors, like Cosmic Explorer or Einstein Telescope, to search for signals from boson clouds around the individual black holes in the observed binaries. We lay out the detection strategy and, focusing on scalar bosons, chart the suitable parameter space. We study the impact of ignorance about the system's history, including cloud age and black hole spin. We also consider the tidal resonances that may destroy the boson cloud before its gravitational signal becomes detectable by a ground-based follow-up. Finally, we show how to take all of these factors into account, together with uncertainties in the LISA measurement, to obtain boson mass constraints from the ground-based observation facilitated by LISA., Comment: 14 pages, 7 captioned figures (14 plots in total), revised version to match PRD publication

Gravitational waves from binary black holes have the potential to yield information on both of the intrinsic parameters that characterize the compact objects: their masses and spins. While the component masses are usually resolvable, the component spins have proven difficult to measure. This limitation stems in great part from our choice to inquire about the spins of the most and least massive objects in each binary, a question that becomes ill-defined when the masses are equal. In this paper we show that one can ask a different question of the data: what are the spins of the objects with the highest and lowest dimensionless spins in the binary? We show that this can significantly improve estimates of the individual spins, especially for binary systems with comparable masses. When applying this parameterization to the first 13 gravitational-wave events detected by the LIGO-Virgo collaboration (LVC), we find that the highest-spinning object is constrained to have nonzero spin for most sources and to have significant support at the Kerr limit for GW151226 and GW170729. A joint analysis of all the confident binary black hole detections by the LVC finds that, unlike with the traditional parametrization, the distribution of spin magnitude for the highest-spinning object has negligible support at zero spin. Regardless of the parameterization used, the configuration where all of the spins in the population are aligned with the orbital angular momentum is excluded from the 90% credible interval for the first ten events and from the 99% credible interval for all current confident detections., Comment: version accepted in PRL

Shortly after a new class of objects is discovered, the attention shifts from the properties of the individual sources to the question of their origin: do all sources come from the same underlying population, or several populations are required? What are the properties of these populations? As the detection of gravitational waves is becoming routine and the size of the event catalog increases, finer and finer details of the astrophysical distribution of compact binaries are now within our grasp. This Chapter presents a pedagogical introduction to the main statistical tool required for these analyses: hierarchical Bayesian inference in the presence of selection effects. All key equations are obtained from first principles, followed by two examples of increasing complexity. Although many remarks made in this Chapter refer to gravitational-wave astronomy, the write-up is generic enough to be useful to researchers and graduate students from other fields., Comment: 57 pages. Updated and revised w.r.t. v1. Includes new section (5.2). v2. adds back the glossary, that was lost in previous version

GW190412 is the first observation of a black hole binary with definitively unequal masses. GW190412's mass asymmetry, along with the measured positive effective inspiral spin, allowed for inference of a component black hole spin: the primary black hole in the system was found to have a dimensionless spin magnitude between 0.17 and 0.59 (90% credible range). We investigate how the choice of priors for the spin magnitudes and tilts of the component black holes affect the robustness of parameter estimates for GW190412, and report Bayes factors across a suite of prior assumptions. Depending on the waveform family used to describe the signal, we find either marginal to moderate (2:1-6:1) or strong ($\gtrsim$ 20:1) support for the primary black hole being spinning compared to cases where only the secondary is allowed to have spin. We show how these choices influence parameter estimates, and find the asymmetric masses and positive effective inspiral spin of GW190412 to be qualitatively, but not quantitatively, robust to prior assumptions. Our results highlight the importance of both considering astrophysically motivated or population-based priors in interpreting observations and considering their relative support from the data., Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, 1 table, published in ApJL

Gravitational waves emitted by neutron star black hole mergers encode key properties of neutron stars - such as their size, maximum mass and spins - and black holes. However, the presence of matter and the high mass ratio makes generating long and accurate waveforms from these systems hard to do with numerical relativity, and not much is known about systematic uncertainties due to waveform modeling. We simulate gravitational waves from neutron star black hole mergers by hybridizing numerical relativity waveforms produced with the SpEC code with a recent numerical relativity surrogate NRHybSur3dq8Tidal. These signals are analyzed using a range of available waveform families, and statistical and systematic errors are reported. We find that at a network signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 30, statistical uncertainties are usually larger than systematic offsets, while at an SNR of 70 the two become comparable. The individual black hole and neutron star masses, as well as the mass ratios, are typically measured very precisely, though not always accurately at high SNR. At a SNR of 30 the neutron star tidal deformability can only be bound from above, while for louder sources it can be measured and constrained away from zero. All neutron stars in our simulations are non-spinning, but in no case we can constrain the neutron star spin to be smaller than $\sim0.4$ (90% credible interval). Waveform families whose late inspiral has been tuned specifically for neutron star black hole signals typically yield the most accurate characterization of the source parameters. Their measurements are in tension with those obtained using waveform families tuned against binary neutron stars, even for mass ratios that could be relevant for both binary neutron stars and neutron star black holes mergers., Comment: 39 pages, 24 figures, 15 tables

Two of the dominant channels to produce merging stellar-mass black-hole binaries are believed to be the isolated evolution of binary stars in the field and dynamical formation in star clusters. The first reported black-hole binary event from the third LIGO/Virgo observing run (GW190412) is unusual in that it has unequal masses, nonzero effective spin, and nonzero primary spin at 90\% confidence interval. We show that this event should be exceedingly rare in the context of both the field and cluster formation scenarios. Interpreting GW190412 as a remnant of a previous black-hole merger provides a promising route to explain its features. If GW190412 indeed formed hierarchically, we show that the region of the parameter space that is best motivated from an astrophysical standpoint (low natal spins and light clusters) cannot accommodate the observation. We analyze public GW190412 LIGO/Virgo data with a Bayesian prior where the more massive black hole resulted from a previous merger, and find that this interpretation is equally supported by the data. If the heavier component of GW190412 is indeed a merger remnant, then its spin magnitude is $\chi_1=0.56_{-0.21}^{+0.19}$, which is higher than the value previously reported by the LIGO/Virgo collaboration., Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, 1 table. Published in PRL

In order to perform Bayesian parameter estimation to infer the source properties of gravitational waves from compact binary coalescences (CBCs), the noise characteristics of the detector must be understood. It is typically assumed that the detector noise is stationary and Gaussian, characterized by a power spectral density (PSD) that is measured with infinite precision. We present a new method to incorporate the uncertainty in the power spectral density estimation into the Bayesian inference of the binary source parameters and apply it to the first 11 CBC detections reported by the LIGO- Virgo Collaboration. We find that incorporating the PSD uncertainty only leads to variations in the positions and widths of the binary parameter posteriors on the order of a few percent. Our results are publicly available for download on git [1].

We perform a detailed parameter estimation study of binary black hole merger events reported in Zackay et al. and Venumadhav et al.. These are some of the faintest signals reported so far, and hence, relative to the loud events in the GWTC-1 catalog, the data should have lesser constraining power on their intrinsic parameters. Hence we examine the robustness of parameter inference to choices made in the analysis, as well as any potential systematics. We check the impact of different methods of estimating the noise power spectral density, different waveform models, and different priors for the compact object spins. For most of the events, the resulting differences in the inferred values of the parameters are much smaller than their statistical uncertainties. The estimation of the effective spin parameter $\chi_{\mathrm{eff}}$, i.e. the projection of the mass-weighted total spin along the angular momentum, can be sensitive to analysis choices for two of the sources with the largest effective spin magnitudes, GW151216 and GW170403. The primary differences arise from using a 3D isotropic spin prior: the tails of the posterior distributions should be interpreted with care and due consideration of the other data analysis choices.

Signal extraction out of background noise is a common challenge in high precision physics experiments, where the measurement output is often a continuous data stream. To improve the signal to noise ratio of the detection, witness sensors are often used to independently measure background noises and subtract them from the main signal. If the noise coupling is linear and stationary, optimal techniques already exist and are routinely implemented in many experiments. However, when the noise coupling is non-stationary, linear techniques often fail or are sub-optimal. Inspired by the properties of the background noise in gravitational wave detectors, this work develops a novel algorithm to efficiently characterize and remove non-stationary noise couplings, provided there exist witnesses of the noise source and of the modulation. In this work, the algorithm is described in its most general formulation, and its efficiency is demonstrated with examples from the data of the Advanced LIGO gravitational wave observatory, where we could obtain an improvement of the detector gravitational wave reach without introducing any bias on the source parameter estimation.

Gamma-ray burst (GRB) prompt emission is highly beamed, and understanding the jet geometry and beaming configuration can provide information on the poorly understood central engine and circum-burst environment. Prior to the advent of gravitational-wave astronomy, astronomers relied on observations of jet breaks in the multi-wavelength afterglow to determine the GRB opening angle, since the observer's viewing angle relative to the system cannot be determined from the electromagnetic data alone. Gravitational-wave observations, however, provide an independent measurement of the viewing angle. We describe a Bayesian method for determining the geometry of short GRBs using coincident electromagnetic and gravitational-wave observations. We demonstrate how an ensemble of multi-messenger detections can be used to measure the distributions of the jet energy, opening angle, Lorentz factor, and angular profile of short GRBs; we find that for a population of 100 such observations, we can constrain the mean of the opening angle distribution to within 10 degrees regardless of the angular emission profile. Conversely, the constraint on the energy distribution depends on the shape of the profile, which can be distinguished., Comment: Matches published version