1. Strong evidence for age as the single most dominant predictor of medically supervised driving test—mini mental status test outcomes provide only weak but significant moderate additional predictive value
- Author
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Yannik Isler, Simon Schwab, Regula Wick, and Stefan Lakämper
- Subjects
Fitness to drive ,Traffic medicine ,Elderly drivers ,Cognitive testing ,Medically supervised driving test ,Mini mental status test ,Geriatrics ,RC952-954.6 - Abstract
Abstract Background With age, medical conditions impairing safe driving accumulate. Consequently, the risk of accidents increases. To mitigate this risk, Swiss law requires biannual assessments of the fitness to drive of elderly drivers. Drivers may prove their cognitive and physical capacity for safe driving in a medically supervised driving test (MSDT) when borderline cases, as indicated by low performance in a set of four cognitive tests, including e.g. the mini mental status test (MMST). Any prognostic, rather than indicative, relations for MSDT outcomes have neither been confirmed nor falsified so far. In order to avoid use of unsubstantiated rules of thumb, we here evaluate the predictive value for MSDT outcomes of the outcomes of the standard set of four cognitive tests, used in Swiss traffic medicine examinations. Methods We present descriptive information on age, gender and cognitive pretesting results of all MSDTs recorded in our case database from 2017 to 2019. Based on these retrospective cohort data, we used logistic regression to predict the binary outcome MSDT. An exploratory analysis used all available data (model 1). Based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), we then established a model including variables age and MMST (model 2). To evaluate the predictive value of the four cognitive assessments, model 3 included cognitive test outcomes only. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC) allowed evaluating discriminative performance of the three different models using independent validation data. Results Using N = 188 complete data sets of a total of 225 included cases, AIC identified age (p
- Published
- 2022
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